Tac dong cua FDI tien nang suat yeu to tong hop:
Nghien culi
mot so' nirdc ASEAN
PHAM TRUNG KIEN' CAO V1$T HIEG"
T o m t a t
Bdi viet la kit qud phdn tich dnh hudng cda vdn ddu tu true tiip nude ngodi (FDI) din tang trudng ndng sud't yiu td tdng hgp (TFP) tgi mgt sd qud'c gia thuoc ASEAN. Dua tren mdu gom 6 qude gia thudc ASEAN, gom: Thdi Lan, Singapore, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia vd Viet Nam trong giai doan 1990-2014. thdng qua cdc phuang phdp udc lugng dU lieu bdng fixed effects model, radom effects model, Parks-Kmenta vd system GMM, nghiin cUu cho thdy, FDI cd dnh hudng tich eUc din tdng trUdng TFP cdc nude ASEAN. Tuy nhiin, khodng cdch din biin cdng nghe ede nudc ldm gidm khd ndng lan tda eda vd'n FDI. Bin canh do, chi tieu chinh phu cd vai trd tich cUc trong viic gia ldng ndng sudt. trong khi do lgm phdt cd dnh hudng tliu cue.
Tir k h o a : FDJ TFP, ASEAN. Parks-Kmenta, system GMM S u m m a r y
The paper analyzes the impact of FDI on TFP growth in some ASEAN countries. Based on a sample of six ASEAN countries, including Thailand, Singapore, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam in the period 1990-2014, through fixed effects model, radom effects model, Parks-Kmenta and system GMM, the study indicates that FDI creates a positive effect on TFP growth. However, the gap to technological boundaries in these countries reduces the spread of FDI In addition, government spending plays an active role in increasing productivity, while inflation produces a negative impact.
K e y w o r d s . FDJ TFP, ASEAN, Parks-Kmenta, system GMM j
GlCfl THIEU t a c d g n g c u a F D I d e n t a n g t n f c l n g T F P c a c nifdc ASEAN, trong do co Viet Nam, dong thdi xem x^t vai tro cua N h i e u n g h i e n ciJu gan dSy cho thS'y, khoang cdch c6ng nghfe va vo'n con ngif&i anh hu'dng nhif phan ldn sif thay doi tifdng do'i trong thu the nao d6n moi quan h e nay. Ttj" ke't qua nghien cihi, nhSp trung binh d a u ngu'di giffa c a c quoc nhdm tac gia se d e xua't cac ham y chinh sach phu hdp.
gia do sir khac biSt T F P giiJa cdc qud'c
gia va tang trudng T F P cua mdi quoc gia C O SCf LY THUYET VA P H l / a N C P H A P ( W o o , 2009). T a n g trifdng T F P la dieu N G H I E N COu
can thiet dd'i vdi tSng tru'dng ben vffng,
va do dd tang tru'dng T F P da trd thanh Casd ly thuyi't vd md hinh nghiin edu d o n g nghTa vdi sif tang trffdng dai han L o k o & Diouf (2009) nghiSn cihi cac yen to'quye't ( M a h a d e v a n , 2003). djnh chu ye'u dd'i vdi ty le tang T F P cua 62 quo'c gia cho Dac bifit, trong bd'i canh td'c dp tang tha'y, FDI tac dong tich cifc d&n T F P , ngoai ra nghien trffdng nhanh chdng cua dong vd'n FDI cffu cdn tim ra b a n g chffng cho tha'y, kha nang hap thu, tren the gidi, doi hoi can cd nhi?ng nghiSn trinh do giao due va ky n a n g cua Iffc lffdng lao d p n g cffu Cli the d e danh gid ro tac dpng ciia cua nffdc tiep nhSn FDI cang cao, thi ldi ich thu du'dc FDI den TFP. Nghien cffu nay phSn Hch tff tac dong lan toa cua FDI cang ldn.
', " T S . , TrUdng Dai hge Binh DUdng I Email: [email protected] Ngdynhdnbdi 23/10/2017; Ngdy phdn bien: 13/11/2017; Ngdy duyel ddng- 15/11/2017
my and Forecast Review
BAMG 1: TOM TAT CAC BIEN SCf DONG TRONG MGHEEN CffU
aBi^n Mdta Ngu6ii
ditli^u Ddn
vi Ky vpng
dffii 'n phil thuOc
P T6'c do tang nang sua't ye'u to tdng hi?p APO
%
c bi&'n dOc l^p II
rF,_,
tlDTF,,
:
IIHC
»E F )V
)
,AB IPG
Ty le d6ng gop ciia FDI ting trong GDP (% cua GDP) Khoang each cong ngh6, do baog ty IS nang sua't lao dpng cuaMy vh nang sutft lao dong moi qii^c gia
Bien tifdng tac giffa FDI v^ DTF Tdc do tang tru'dng chi sd vdn con ngtfdi Bi^n tu'dng tiic giffa FDI va HC Do iDd thu'dng mai, do b^ng ti trong cQa xuS'c nhap lch£u trong GDP
TJ 16 lam plidt tinh theo GDP deflator Ty Ie chi ti6u chinh phu v^ GDP Nghien cffu va phat tri^n, do bang logarit tif nhien 1.0 lu'dng bang sdng chd
Ty le lao dpng nff trong nin kinh tS Tdc dfl tang tnfdng dan sd
Bien gii th6i gian cac nam 1997,1998,2001,2009 WDI
WDI
V^'DI PWT WDI WDI WDI WDI WDI WDI WDI
%
Ty 1^
%
%
% .
%
%
%
%
% -
+
+
*
* -
+ -t- t
*
Ghi chd: APO: The Asian Productivity Organization, WDI; World Development
•calors. PWT: Penn World Table (Feenstra, et ai, 2015).
Nguoni Tdng hdp cua nhom tac gia Baltabaev (2014) xem xet vai trd ctia khoang each den bi6n cdng nghe d^i vdi khS nang tac dpng lan toa ctia FDI den TFP.
T r e n cd sd ly thuyet tac dpng Ian toa cua F D I d e n n a n g suat nUdc tiep nhan dau tU va m u c tidu cua nghien cffu, dong thdi tham k h a o cac md hinh nghien ciJu thffc nghiem cua Baltabaev (2014), Loko & Diouf (2009),Wang (2012) va W o o (2009), n h d m tdc gia dffa ra M o hinh dinh lUdng n h a m \idc lUdng mu'c dp tac dpng cua F D I d e n T F P cac qud'c gia Ihugc A S E A N cua nghien cffu n a y g d m 4 phffdng t n n h , nhff sau:
T F P = a + p , . F D I + p „ D T F , , + p^.HC^ + p^.OPE, + p , . I N F , + | 3 , . G 0 V , ' + pg;RD, + "p,^,FLAB + p „ . P O P G + T + C + E . ( I )
T F P = ' a + p , . F D I , + p , . D T F , , + p , . F D I „ D T F , , + p ^ . H C / + P , . O P E , + P , . I N F , + Pg.GOV,, + pg.RD"„ + P,o.FLAB + P „ . P 6 P G + T , + C + e„ (2)
T F P = a + P , . F D I , + P^-DTF,, + p ^ . H C / + p5,FDI_,Hq + Pe.OPE, + P,,INF, + P3.GOV,, + pg.RD,, + p,„,FLAB + p i i . P b P G + T , + c + £, (3)
TFP. = a + P , l F D i , + p2,DTF,, + P F D I D T F , + P^.HC, + p3.FDI,HC + pg.OPE + p ; , I N F , + p g . G O V , + pg.RD\ + P , , , . F L A ' B + P ^ , . P 6 P G + T,+ c + e, (4)
D e d a m b a o ke't qua ddnh gia tac d d n g c u a F D I da'n t a n g trffdng TFP klidng bi a n h hffdng bdi c a c yd'u t^
lien q u a n , Phffdng trinh ( I ) k h d n g cd sff xua't h i d n c u a b i e n tUdng tac giffa FDI va k h o a n g c i c h de^n b i d n cdng nghd F D I D T F , ^ , d 6 n g thdi c u n g khdng cd bid'n tffdng tdc giffa F D I va vdn con ngffdi F D I H C . Phffdng trinh (2) thu dffdc tff Phffdng trinh (1) b a n g each t h e m bid'n tffdng tac F D I D T F , , dd' phan tich vai trd c u a k h o a n g e a c h dd'n Men c o n g n g h e dd'i vdi tac d d n g ciia FDI d e n t a n g trffdng T F P . Phffdng trinh (3) thu dffdc tff Phffdng trinh (1) b a n g each t h d m bid^n tffdng t a c F D I H C n h a m phan ti'ch vai trd hS'p thu F D I cua vdn con ngffdi nffdc tid'p nhSn d a u tff a n h hffdng nhff the' n a o dd'n t a n g trffdng TFP. Cudi Cilng, t h e m d o n g thdi ca 2 bie'n tffdng tdc FDIDTF,., va F D I H C v a o Phffdng trinh (1) s e thu dffdc PhUdng trinh (4) d^ phdn tich tac d d n g c u a FDI de'n tang trffdng T F P dffdi Snh hffdng ddng thdi ciia k h o a n g c i c h de'n b i d n c d n g nghe va vd'n con ngUdi.
Phuangphdp nghien ciiu
N g h i e n cffu sff dung dff lieu thff c^p dffdc thu thdp tiJf nhffng to chffc ldn, cd uy tin, nhff: A P O , World B a n k va bp dff h?u VI md Penn World T a b l e 9. Tuy nhien, dil lieu b a n g sdng che' dai didn cho bid'n R D do W D I cdng bo' khdng d^y dii cho ta't ca cac n a m trong thdi gian nghien cffu 1990-2014. Cii thi, dff lieu c^a Singapore thid'u 5 n a m : 1990-1994 va cua Indonesia thie'u 2 n a m 1990, 2012.D o d o , nghien cffu sff dung ndi suy sphne b a c 3 cho chudi dff lieu R D tff n a m 1971 dd'n 2 0 1 4 di tinh todn dff lidu R D trong c a c n a m bi thie'u.
M l u nghidn cffU gom 6 ddn vi ch6o tffdng ffng vdi 6 quoc gia, gom: Thdi Lan, S i n g a p o r e , Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vidt N a m trong thdi gian tif 1990-2014. Bang cdch sff d u n g dff heu b a n g , tong so quan sdt vi khdng gian va thdi gian cua nghidn cffu la 6 x 25 =150 q u a n sdt (Bdi viil sU dgng cdeh viet sd thgp phdn theo chudn qud'e ti).
•Biijni
KET QUA NGHIEN CUD
Thdng ki md ta cdc biin trong md hinh nghiin eUu
NgoSi bi^n phu thudc la td'c dp tang TFP, nghien cffu sff dung 11 bien dpc lap.
Trong dd, bie'n chinh la FDI, 8 bie'n kiem sodt, thdm 2 bid'n tUdng tdc giffa FDI vd vd'n con ngffdi; giffa FDI va khoang cdch cdng nghe.
Bang 2 tdm tdt ke't qua thdng ke cua ta't ca cdc bid'n sff dung trong md hinh xet trdn todn bd mau quan sdt. Kd't qua cho th^y, bie'n TFP cd gid tri trung binh 0.949, dp lech chuan 3.594, gia tri nho nha't la -17.749 va gid tri ldn nha't la 8.413. Nhff vay, cd sff chdnh lech kha Idn ve tang trffdng TFP trong mau nghien cffu. Bien FDI ciing cd chenh lech kha Idn giffa cdc quoc gia trong mau nghidn cffu.
Ma trgn tUOng quan va da cgng tuyi'n Vide khao sdt tffdng quan giffa cdc bi^n trong md hinh h6i quy cho phep dff bdo trffde hien tffdng da cdng tuye'n cd the anh hffdng dd'n dp chinh xdc ciia ke't qua hoi quy. Ket qua phan tich he so' tffdng quan giffa cac bie'n trong Bang 3 cho thay, cap bien FDI - OPE cd tffdng quan rd't manh vdi nhau (hd sd' tffdng quan >0.8). Bdn canh dd, mdt sd' cap bien khac cd tri tuyet dd^i ciia hd s^ tffdng quan >0.5, nhff: DTF,, - OPE, DTF,, - GOV, DTF,., - RD, DTF,, - FLAB, RD - GOV, do dd cd kha nang xay ra hien tUdng da cdng tuyd'n. Nghien cff\i kiem tra hien tffdng da cdng tuyd'n thdng qua he sd phdng dai phffdng sai (VIF - Variance Inflation Factor).
Ket qua VIF cua cac bien DTFt-1 va OPE Idn (>4) cho tha'y, xay ra hien tUdng da cdng tuye'n trong md hinh (Bang 4).
Tuy nhidn, VIF ciia cdc bid'n nay khdng phai la qud ldn (<10), dong thdi cac phffdng phdp ffdc Iffdng dff lieu bang se tdi cau tnic lai dff lieu trong qua trinh phan tich hoi quy, gdp phan han che" bdt hidn tffdng da cpng tuyen giffa cdc bie'n, dc vay cd the bd qua van de nay.
Ketqua Udc lii^g mo hinh thUc nghidm Nghien cffu thffc hien hoi quy theo cdc phffdng phdp FEM, REM. De lUa chon phffdng phdp ffdc lffdng phu hdp vdi bp dff lieu, nghidn cffu sff dung ki^m dinh Hausman vdi gia thuyet "H^:
md hinh REM la phii hdp" cho ke^t qua (Prob>Chi2)>0.1 trong tat ci cac md hinh. Do dd, md hinh REM dffdc chpn vi hidu qud hdn. Kd't qu5 h6i quy theo
BAMQ 2 : THOMG KE MO TA CAC BIEM TRONG NGHIEM CCfU
B i d n T F P F D I DTF,., FDIDTF,., H C F D I H C O P E I N F G O V R D F L A B P O P G
s d quan s^t 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150
! 5 0 150 150
T r u n g binh 0,949 5.095 6.514 25,816 1 353 9.381 151.068 7.171 10.136 5.429 40.991 1.687
DO l^ch chu9°n
3,594 5,524 5,537 39,664 0.916 16 897 104.406 9.986 2.657 1.106 4.832 0,847
Gia trj n h o nh^t
-17 749 -2 757 0 733 - 1 9 5 8 3 -0 9 2 4 - 9 4 1 5 4 5 . 5 1 2 -5.992 5.465 2.701 33.789 - 1 4 7 6
Gia tr Idn nh3 g.^ 26.! 24, i 250,!
s.:
831 439 ( 75.; 17.1 7 : 48.! 5 ; Ghi chd: Cdc hidn TFP. FDI. HC, INF. POPG c6 gid In dm (-) do: Khung ho ldi chinh chdu A ndm 1998 ddn di'n cdc nitdc ASEAN tdng trUdng TFP dm Trong Indonesia anh hudng nhieu nhdt (•17.749%); FDI f>ao gom long vdn chu sdliSu, lainh ldi ddu lu vd cdc khodn vay. cho vay trong noi bo doanh nghiep giSa cdc nhd ddu lU tidp. Dong vdn FDI vdo rong dm khi fl nhdi moi irong ba thdnh phdn cua nd dm vd kh ba ddp lai dugc bdi cdc tiidnh phdn cdn lpi; HC do bhng ldc dd tdng ch! sdvdn con ng USn quan ddn sd li^u ndm sau trtc ndm Irudc n&n CO th^ dm; INF Id tf l^ l(fm phdt, kh hodng tdi chlnh lodn cau 2008 ldm long cdu gidm m^nh sau khiing hodng do thdt ngi nen lam phdt gidm dcdc nUdc, d^c bi^t Id gidm phdi d Malaysia khi tinh Iheo chi sdg phdt GDP (-5.992%); POPG: ndm 2003. tang tnfdng ddn sdcua Singapore dm (-1.4;
B[dn F D I D T F , , H C O P E I N F G O V R D F L A B P O P G
*:cd
BANG 3 : MA TR^M H | F D I
1 00 -0,24'-
0 50-^
0 . 8 1 * - 0 . 2 0 * -0.05 0 . 1 8 * 0 . 1 9 * 0 3 1 * nghTa ih
Bign FDI HC DTF,, OPE INF GOV RD FLAB POPG Mean VIF
D T F , ,
l.OC
-0.52*
0.50=*
-0.52*
-0.54*
0.59*
-0.24*
H C
0 00 1 00 0.45*
-0.07 - 0 . 2 7 * - 0 . 1 ! 0 2 1 * 0.37*
SO TCldNG QGAN GltfA CAC BIEN OPE
1.00 - 0 . 3 2 * 0.10 0 . 3 2 * -0.02 0 . 4 2 *
I N F
1.00 - 0 . 3 5 * - 0 . 3 6 * 0 14 -0.04
G O V
1 00 0 . 5 3 * - 0 . 2 3 * -0 10
R D
l.OC -0.08 -0 2 3 *
F L A B
1.00 - 0 , 4 2 *
POI
1 dng kS d mitc 5%
BAMG 4 : KIEM TRA DA CQMG TGYEN VW
3 62 1 87 5 43 5.31 1.43 1 88 2.15 3.68 2 45 3 09
SQRT (VIF) 1 90 1 37 2 33 2.30 1-19 1 37 147 1.92 1.57
Tolerance 0 2762 0 5347 0.1843 0.1883 0 7016 0 5327 0 4653 0.2721 0.4076
R-Squared 0.7 0 4 0.8 0 8 0 2 0 4 0 5 0.7 0.5
1 cua nhom tac
BANG 5: KET QUA HOI QGY THEO PHCldNG PHAP SYSTEM GMM Big^D d$c I$p
FDI DTP,, FDIDTF,, HC FDIHC OPE INF GOV FtD FLAB POPG yl997 yl998 y2001 y2009
quan sdl qude gia
;si(p-value)
•gan test (p-value) .(1) (p-value) .(2) (p-value)
(1) 0 201**
(0.0951) 0-0939 (0.130)
-0.811 (0 494)
O.OOI il (0.00593) 0 0327 (0 0627) 0 261*
(0.140) -0.369 (0.392) -0.0478 (0.109) -0.411 (0.513) -1.540 (1.434) -9.330***
(1.372) -7 804***
(1.975) -4 259***
(1.479) 2.924 (4 084) 144 6 0.000 0.804 0.000 0.397
(2) 0.302***
(O.Hl) 0.362**
(0.179) -0.0373**' (0017!) -0 777 (0.480)
0 00203 (0.00585) 0.0254 (0-0629) 0.379**
(0.149) -0.562 (0.409) -0.0430 (0.110) -0.399 (0.514) -1.169 (1.444) -9.490***
(1.386) -8.228***
(1.972) -3.537**
(1.510) 1.134 (4.182) 144 6 0.000 0,916 0.000 0.638
(3) 0.292*
(0 169) 0.160 (0.124)
0 192 (0.854) -0 0628 (0.0599) -0.000157 (0.00677) 0 0228 (0.0611) 0.243*
(0.139) 0.141 (0.384) -0.121 (0.106) -0.528 (0.478) -1.569 (1.413) -9.417***
(1.346) -7.353***
(1.875) -4.712***
(1.458) 2.102 (4.035) 144 6 0.000 0.693 0.000 0.372
(4L.
0,506**
(0.208) 0 392*' (0.183) -0.0433**
(0.0180) 0.172 (0 948) -0.0774 (0.0664) -0.00298 (0 00732) 0 0218 (0,0637) 0 370**
(0.151) -0.320 (0.463) -0.0710 (0.114) -0 347 (0.522) -1.100 (1.463) -9,508***
(1.403) -8.640***
(2.027) -3.768**
(1.54!) 0.136 (4 319) 144 6 0.000 0.939 0.000 0.681
•ference-in-Sargan tests of exogeneity of GMM instrument subsets (p-value)
•gan test excluding group ference (null H=exogenous)
0.549 0.830
0.415 0.986
0.358 0.834
0 567 0 972 ference-in-Sargan tests of exogeneity of standard "IV " instrument subsets (p-value) argan test excludmg group
ference (null H = exogenous) 0 680 0 821
0.840 0.830
0.577 0.729
0.849 0,900 Ghi chu •
- Bidn phu thuoc TFP
- Sai sd chudn ndm trong 0; ***, **, *: coy nghia thdng ke d miic 1%. 5%. 10%.
FDI- tf Irpng dong gdp cua FDI rang irong GDP; HC: tdc dQ ldng cht sdvdn con di; FDIHC litffng Idc giSa FDI vd vdn con ngUdi; DTF: khodng cdch den bien cong e, do bdng ly I? ndng sudt lao dpng lai My vd ndng sudt lao dong ciia mdi qude gia ig mdu. FDIDTF: bien IKOng ldc giffa FDI vd DTF; OPE: do md thUOng mgi, do bang -ong c&a xud'l nhdp khdu trong GDP, INF. tf le lam phdt, tinh duac theo chi sdgidm I CDP; GOV- ty le chi lieu ciia chfnh phu (khdng hao gdm chi cho qudn sit) i a GDP.
• hoat dong R&D, dUdc tinh bang logarit lU nhien sd luong bdng sdng che; FLAB: ty IO ddng nH Iren ldng sd lao ddng; POPG: ty le tdng Irudng ddn sd
REM cho Icd't qua ki^m dinh Wald cd p-value < 0.01 vdi tS^t ca md hinh cho thay, vi tdng the vdi mli'c y nghTa 1 %, cac md hinh dUdc xac dinh cd •^ nghia thdng ke.
Tid'p theo, nghidn ciJu tid'n hanh kiem dinh cac gi5 dinh cua md hinh REM. TrUdc tidn, kiem dinh Lagrange cua Breusch - Pagan vdi gia thuyd't "H • phUdng sai sai so khdng ddi" cd kd^t qua p-value>0.05 trong cdc md hinh, do dd chUa du chiJng cu" de bac bo giS thuyd^l H^j vdi mu'c y nghia 5%. Vi vSy, clil'p nhSn gid thuyd't mo hinh cd phUdng sai sai so' khdng ddi. Ket qua kiem dinh Wooldridge vdi gia thuyd't "H^,:
khdng cd tu tUdng quan trong sai sd^" c(5 p-value<0.05 trong tS't ca cSc mo hinh, do dd du chiJng ciT de bac bd gia thuydt Hp vdi mi?c y nghTa 5%. Nhu vay, cac mo hinh tdn tai hidn tUdng tU tUcJng quan trong sai s5'. Kd't qua Idem dinh Pesaran vdi gia thuyd't "HQI C£C ddn vi cheo ddc lap "cho kd't qua p-value>0.1 trong tat ca cac md hinh, do vay chS'p nhSn gid thuye't Hg vdi mu'c y nghia 10%, ttfc IS cdc md liinh khong tdn tai tUdng quan giffa cac ddn vi chdo.
Nhu vSy, cac md hinh thUc nghidm dUde thuc hidn theo phUdng phap REM tdn tai hidn tUdng tU tUdng quan trong sai so', ddng thdi tdn tai cdc bie'n gidi thich la ndi sinh trong md hinh. De khac phuc, nghidn ciJu chuydn sang siS" dung phUdng phap Udc lUdng GMM cho dff lidu bang.
Do kich thudc mSu nhd {150 quan sdt), ndn nghidn ciJu se chpn phUdng phap system GMM de thUc hidn Udc lUdng md hinh nghidn ciJu cd bien tre TFP. Tuy nhidn, kd't qua Udc lUdng bid'n tre TFP khdng cd y nghia thd'ng ke vdl miJc y nghTa 10%, kd't qua n&y tUdng tu vdi nghien ciJu cua Baltabaev (2014), dieu nay cho tha'y, tang trUdng TFP hien tai khdng chiu anh hudng vao tang trUdng TFP cua ky trUdc dd. Vi vSy, nghidn ciJu tid'p tuc lam viec vi3i mo hinh tinh, su" dung bie'n tre mdt ky cua FDI va cdc bie'n gidi thich lam bie'n cdng cu de khac phuc hidn tUdng nfii sinh cua FDI. Kd't qua cua phUdng phdp system GMM vdi_cdc mo hinh khdng co bie'n phu thuQc trd dUdc trinh bay trong Bang 5.
Sau khi tid'n hanh cdc kiem dinh cin thid't sau Udc lUdng cho tha'y, ke't qua cua phUdng phdp system GMM la phCi hdp.
KET LUAN VA GOl V CHINH SACH
Bdn canh vide thUc nghidm ddnh gia tdc dong lan tda cua FDI dd'n tang trUdng TFP tai 6 qud'c gia thudc khdi ASEAN (Thdi Lan, Singapore, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia va Viet Nam) trong giai doan 1990-2014, nghidn ci?u cdn xem xet vai trd cua vd'n eon ngUdi va khoang cdch dd'n bien cdng nghd cua nUdc tie'p nhdn dau tu dd'i vdi dnh hudng cua FDI dd'n tang trUdng TFP thdng qua cdc bid'n tUdng tdc. Suf dung phUdng phap system GMM dd khac phuc ndi sinh cua FDI va tu tUdna quan trong cac md hinh hdi quy cd dien. Ddng thdi, dd'i chid'u vdi ket qua cua phUdng phdp Parks-Kmenta nham ddm bao Udc lUdng ddng tin cay, nghidn ciJu deit dUde mdt so'ke't qua nhd't dinh:
ThU nhdt, suT dung cdc phUdng phap Udc lUdng khde nhau cho ke't qua nha't quan ve chieu hUdng tac ddng tich cUc va ed y nghia thd'ng ke cua FDI dd'n td'c do tang nang sul't yd'u to' tdng hdp cdc nudc ASEAN. Ve mu'c dd tac dpng, hd sd hdi quy cua bidn FDI la 0.201 vdi mUc y nghia 5% eho bid't ty Id ciia FDI so vdi GDP tang 1%, thi tang trUdng trung binh TFP tang 0.201%, ddng gdp 22.79% vao tang trudng.
ThU hai, khoang cdch de'n bidn cdng nghe anh hUdng tidu cUc dd'n miJc do tdc ddng lan tda ciia FDI tai cde nUde ASEAN, do cdc nudc khdng du kha nang hd'p thu cdng nghd tff FDI khi khoang cdch cdng nghd qud ldn.
ThU ba, nghidn cUu chUa tim ra bang chiJng cho tha'y, vai tro ciia vd'n con ngUdi cdc nffdc ASEAN trong vide hap thu cdng nghd tCf FDI giup nang cao tang trudng TFP.
TiJf kd't qud nghien ciJu trdn, tde gia dd xua't cac ham y chinh sach nhUsau:
Chinh phu cdc nUdc edn cd eac chinh sdch nham thu hut FDI, nhU: hoan thien he thdng phdp Iu$t, chinh sdch lidn quan de'n dtu tU, cdc quy dinh ve viec thuc hidn nghiem tuc quydn sd hiJu tri tud, sd hiiu tdi sdn, cdi thien thii tuc hanh chinh, ndng eao eha't Iffdng dich vu cdng, chdng tham nhung, xay diAig mdi trUdng dau tu minh bach, tao dieu kidn thuan ldi cho cdc nha dau tff, ddng thdi cai thidn ke't cau ha tang, nhff: mang ludi giao thong, thdng tm lien lac va ndng Iffdng...
P P Cac nirdc ASEAN c^n diu ttf V V nSng eao vd'n con ngtfoTi. Didu niiy khdng nhitng giiip cac qu6'c gia tti phat tri^n cdng ngh^, ma con giup thu hep khoang each d^'n bien c3ng ngh§. • •
Ddng thdi, tang cffdng cdc bidn phdp thiic day quan hd kinh td' vdi cdc qud'c gia, tham gia cdc cpng ddng kinh td'nhdm tao nhieu cd hdi eho cdc nha ddu tff, tang cffdng xdc tid'n dau tU vdi cde nha dau tff nffde ngoai.
Bdn canh dd, ly thuyet va thffc tien cho thd'y muc tidu ciia FDI Id ldi nhuan, nen cdc nha dau tU nUde ngoai chi dau tu vao nhffng dU an suf dung dffde ldi the' dae bidt cua hp, khai thac nhffng dac diem vffdt trpi eiia nffdc chu nha, nhff: tai nguyen thien nhien, nhan cdng re, chuyen gia va cdng nghe, tie'p can thj trffdng... Do dd, can thu hiit ngudn FDI hudng vao cac muc tieu phdt trien cua quo'c gia, chu ddng lUa chpn dd'i tdc dau tu vdo cac iTnh vUc cd chpn loc d^y manh tdc ddng lan tda, il tieu td'n nang lUdng, khdng lam can kiet cdc ngudn tai nguydn tff nhidn, han chd' 6 nhidm, chuydn giao ky nang va cdng nghd than thidn vdi moi trUdng.
Cae nUde ASEAN cdn dau tff nang eao vd'n con ngffdi. Dieu nay khdng nhffng giiip cac qud'c gia tUphat trien cdng nghd, ma cdn giiip thu hep khoang each den bidn cong nghe. Viec thu hep khoang cdch cdng nghd Id rd't can thie't vi se han chd' dUdc tdc dpng tidu cffc tff FDI do khodng cdch cdng nghd gay ra, ma con tan dung dUdc ldi thd lac hau tUdng do'i dd tid'p nhan cdng nghe tff FDI. Ngoai ra, cdn nang cao cha't lUdng FDI vi cdc doanh nghiep nudc ngoai phdi mang theo cdng nghd tidn tid'n de canh tranh.Q
TAI L i e u THAMKHAO
1. Baltabaev, B. (2014). Foreign Direct Investment and Total Factor Productivity Growth - New Macro-Evidence, The World Economy, 37(2), 311-334
2. Loko, B. & Diouf, M. A. (2009). Revisiting the Determinants of Productivity Growth: What's New?, IMF Working Paper
3. Mahadevan, R. (2003). New Currents in Productivity Analysis: Where to now?, Tokyo: The Asian Productivity Organization
4. Wang, Y. (2012). Openness and Productivity: The Role of Imports, FDI and International Telecommunications, Latin American Journal of Economics, ^9{X), 125-145
5. Woo, J. (2009). Productivity growth and technological diffusion through foreign direct investment. Economic Inquiry, 47(2), 226-248
Etonomy and Forefjsl Rev[.
