NGHIEN c d u - TRAO
Dieu hanh kinh te vT mo:
Ph6l hap chmh sach tai khoa va chinh sach tien te
PGS, TS. DAO VAM HGMG, TS. TRIMH QUANG ANH Hoc vien Chinh sach ^'a Phat tri;n
Nam 2013, hofn nu'a chgng dtfcTng 2011-2015, da khep lai. Niem vui la "kinh td' vT mo dang d i n d'n dinh " drfcfng nhrf bj la'n at bdi nhrfng Io ling, tran trd:
phai di^u hanh kinh te vT md th§' nao de dat drftfc cac muc tieu, chi tieu dat ra cho nu^a chang drfcfng con lai, 2014-2015. Vi v$y, vide phoi htfp chat che, nhip nhang girfa chinh sach tai khoa va chi'nh sach ti^n t$ troT nen co y nghia dac biet quan trgng.
NHLfNG KHO KHAN, THACH THLTC DANG DAT RA Nhin tdng the ke'l qud 3 ndm thffc hien nhiem vu phdt trien kinh l e - xa hdi Clia ke hoach 2011-2013, cdc can dd'i Idn Clia nen kinh le dffdc cdi thien khd tich cffc vd muc lieu tdng quat ndm 2013 Id:
"tdng cffdng dn dinh kinh te' vT md, lam phdt tha'p hdn, lang irffdng cao hdn nam 2012" ve cd ban da ihuc hien dffdc. Ke't qua dieu hdnh chinh sach tien le va chinh sdch Idl khda, cung nhff nhffng thdnh qua bffdc dau cua tid'n trinh ldi cd'u true ndn kinh te', da cd nhffng ddng gdp nha'l dinh vdo thanh tyu chung nay.
Tuy nhien, vecd ban, kinh te nffdc ta van dang dgiai doan khd khan, tiep tuc phai dd'i mat vdi nhieu thdch thffc trong ngan han vd chffa the trd lai quy dao tang trffdng nhanh vdo 1-2 nam tdi. Nhffng ldn tai, han che cua cdng tdc quan ly vd dieu hdnh kinh te vT md ndi chung thdi gian qua dffde xac dinh Id mdt trong nhffng nguyen nhan chinh gay nen linh trang tren.
Nen kinh te'dang trong giai doan khd khan, tham chi nhieu ^ kien cho rang, Viel Nam dang d Ihdi diein khd khan nhd't ke tff khi Ddi mdi. Dieu nay khd phu nhdn khi cude khung hoang kinh t e - tdi chinh loan cau 2008- 2009 mdc dii khdng tac ddng true lie'p tdi nen kinh te Vidt Nam thdng qua he thd'ng tdi chinh, nhUng da Iam khue'eh dai nhffng bd't dn kinh te ndi tai cua qud'c gia vd'n dd lich tu tff nhieu ndm trffdc dd.
Sud't gan thap ky qua, kinh te vi md Viet Nam ludn
25
NGHIEN c a o - TRAO DOI
TSngiMiHnigtibmfkat
. i l l 111 l l l l l l
2001 2 n B 30D5 21»7 2009 2011 U d c ^ O U
N g u o n : Ton ci c Tfioiis k e
Can doi .NSNN
.rrityiuiiii
. \ g a n h a n g Nha nu'iSc. T o n g UL T l u n g K
I T g;i t S D ^ _ND
Ngiioii: R e n t e r ' . N g a n h a n g Nha nifcJc
trong tinh trang bd't on. Sff mat can dfi nghiem trpng giffa tie't kidm va dau iif lau nay da day nen kinh td' luon ph3i ddi mat vdi tinh trang tham hut cdn can thUdng mai, thdm hut ngan sach nhd nffdc (NSNN) va nd cdng tang manh. Hd luy ta'l ye'u la lam phat dang cao, theo dti la sy bat on cua ty gid, Iai sua't, rdi loan boat ddng tai chinh - ngan hdng va dinh tre kinh le', tiep theo Id sy suy giam I6ng tin. Nhffng thdnh qua kinh te'dat dffdc lif nam 2011 tdi nay cdn mang tinh tam thdi, chua thyc sy ben vffng.
Nam 2011- 2013, dii ludn dUdc ddnh gid la cd chuyen bie'n tich cyc, song mpi sd' chi tieu kinh te' quan trgng vln chifa dat. Dau nam 2011, Dai hgi Dang Ian thi?
XI dd thdng qua mffe tdng GDP binh quan 5 nam tff 1%-1,5% trong giai doan 2011- 2015. Tai ky hop cud'i nam 2011, Qudc hdi khda XIII dd thdng qua Ke hoach Phat trien kinh le - xa hdi giai doan 2011- 2015 vdi GDP tang dmffe khiem ton hOn:
khoang 6,5%-7%, Nhffng lien ba ndm qua, con so'6,5% chffa mdt lan xud't hiSn, Ne'u linh theo gid so sdnh ndm 2010, miic tdng irudng GDP cdc ndm 2011 vd 2012 lan lUdt Id 6,24%c vd 5,25%; ndm 2013 theo Udc tinh cua Tdng cue Thdng k% \i 5,42% va binh quan 3 ndm 2011-2013 la 5,6%. Vdi con sd dU kien cho 2014 la 5,8% trong tinh hinh kinh le dang dif^fc ddnh gid la khd khdn nhU hi8n nay, Ihi gan nhu chac chdn chi tieu tdng GDP ciia 5 nam se khdng thd ve dich.
Ve chi sd' gid tieu dung CPI, ket qua kiem che' lam phdt ndm qua het sffc ro rdng. CPI ldng chdm lai theo da suy giam ctia tdng cau, cimg nhifng tdc ddng tnfc tiep va tffc thdi ciia cdc quye'l djnh dieu chinh gid hang hda djch vu cd ban (mang tinh phi thj trudng) qua di. Vdi ndm 2013, theo cdng bd'cua Tong cue Thd'ng ke, CPI chi cdn d quanh mffe 6,04%. Mac du vSy.
nguy cd Iam phdt quay trd Iai van liemM do trong thdi gian tdi, CPI cdthe chju cic
"cu sd'c" Iff viec mgt so hang hda, dichvu cd ban tie'p tuc dUdc dieu chinh theociJ che thj trudng, trong khi lam phdt Iffy^"
to tien td cung liic cd the xud't hien sau do trd cua chinh sdch tien te "Iinh hoat".
Ben canh tdng trudng kinh te vd l?in phdt, cac chi tieu: ty trpng dau tif trfei GDP, ty Ie bdi chi ngan sdch, tdng ndng sua't lao ddng so vdi ndm 2010, ty 1§ hi9 dgng ngdn sdch tren GDP cung kh6 c6 the dat ke' hoach 5 ndm. Ndm 2011, Wi chi NSNN d mffe khoang 4.9% GDP,d6i
2012 Id 4,8% GDP. sang 2013 \S6c diUc hien Id 5,3% GDP. Du kien den ndm 2015, chl tieu nay d mffe dffdi 5,3%o GDP, vffdt muc lieu 4,5% da de ra trong ke hoach 5 nam.
Ty ie ddng vien tff thue, phi tren GDP vdo NSNN dang giam dan: nam 2011 la 22,7% GDP; nam 2012 dat 20,6%» GDP;
nam 2013 ffdc dat 18,4% GDP va trong hai ndm 2014-2015 dy kien giam hdn do tff ngdy 1/1/2014, thue sua't phd thdng ddi vdl thu nhdp doanh nghiep se giam tff 25% xudng 22%), ndm 2014 dff todn chi cdn 17,2% GDP, khdng dat chi tieu huy dgng ciia ca giai doan tff 22%-23%
GDP da dffdc Qud'c hgi quye't djnh. Tong thu NSNN 3 ndm ffdc dal 52,2% trong khi long chi NSNN ffdc dat 51,8%) muc tieu pha'n da'u 5 nam.
Vdi nd cdng, linh vyc dypc coi la khd nhay cam, cdc bdo cdo chinh thffc cho Iha'y: ndm 2011 ty le nd cdng so vdi GDP Id 54.9%; nam 2012 la 55,7%o. Ty le dff nd chinh phu so vdi GDP nam 2011 la 43,1%; ndm 2012 la 43,3%>. Ty le dund nUde ngoai cua qud'c gia so vdi GDP ndm 2011 Id 41,5%, nam 2012 Id 41,1%>. Mac dii cdc cd quan chffc ndng ludn khang dinh cdc ly le dff nd cdng, dU nd chinh phu vd du nd nUde ngodi ciia qud'c gia du kie'n den ndm 2015 deu nam trong ngudng de ra cua ke' hoach 2011-2015, song vd'n de pham vi nd cdng nen dUde xdc djnh lai ra sao, tdng so' theo dung ban eha't Id bao nhieu, ddu la ngUdng td'i ifu vd ddu la Iran an loan ciia nd cdng dang vd se la tdm didm eiia nhieu cugc tranh luan ve an ninh ldi chinh qud'c gia.
Lien quan de'n chinh sdch tien te, dinh hudng chuyen tff "ndi Idng" sang "that chdt", rdi "chat che, linh boat" da dffa mffe tdng tdng phffdng lien thanh loan M2 cQng trd nen linh boat: nam 2011 tdng 12,5%, ndm 2012 ldng 22,5%, ndm 2013 ffdc khoang 16%, dat ke'hoach. Cdn dff nd tin dung: ndm 2011 tdng 14.47r, ndm 2012 tdng 8,85%); ngdy 27/12/2013, tai Hdl nghi trien khai nhiem vu nganh ngan hdng ndm 2014 tren dja bdnTP. Ho Chi Minh, Thd'ng ddc Ngdn hang Nhd nffdc (NHNN) Nguyen Vdn Binh cdng bd tdng trffdng tin dung todn he thong dat tren 11%. Tff ndm 2011 de'n nay. mat bdng lai sudi huy ddng da giam 7%-10%/
ndm, lai sud't cho vay giam 9%-12%/
ndm, Iffdng dffdng mffe lai suat trong giai doan 2005-2006. Hien nay, ldi sua't cho vay phd bicn ddi vdi cdc linh vffc Uu lien
d mffe 7%-9%/nam; linh vUc san xuait, kinh doanh khae d mffe 9%-11,5%/nam, trong do ldi sua't cho vay dd'i vdi khach hdng td't chi cdn 6,5%-7%/ndm.
Tren thj trffdng ngoai hd'i, sff on djnh cd ban da dUdc thiel lap lai. Ty gid dang duy tri xu the dn djnh da keo ddi tff nam 2012 tdi nay vd chffa chju sffc ep pha gid dang ke nao. Quy md thj trudng ty do da bi thu hep va ty gid tu do khdng cdn vai trd ddn dat ty gia lien ngan hdng nffa, ngUdc lai dang tiem can, bdm sdt ly gia ndy.
NHNN da thyc hien khd lot viec mua vao ngoai te bd sung dUUff ngoai hd'i tai nhffng thdi gian thudn ldi. Ddy la mdt cd sd quan trong giup NHNN cd the tuyen bd' giff t;^ gia chi bidn ddng trong 1 bien dp hep trong ndm 2014 khi bd'l canh vT md dang cd nhieu thuan ldi.
Thi uudng vang trong nudc cung dang di vao on djnh sau nhffng nd lffc tang cffdng quan ty, dieu tiet, gidm sat cua Chinh phu va NHNN. Tuy nhien ve trung han, viec tiep tuc phdi duy in hoat dgng ban da'u thau can thiep thj irffdng vang se gay quan ngai trffdc he'l d khia canh lam suy giam quy dff trff ngoai hdi qud'c gia
Mac du thyc trang bd't cap, lac hau ciia ea'u tnic nen kinh td va md hinh tdng tnJdng hien lai ciia Viet Nam da dydc chl ra lai Ke't ludn cua Hgi nghi Trung ydng 3, Khod XI ciing vdi yeu cau cap ihie't ldi cd'u trdc nen kinh te, tuy nhien cdc hdnh ddng de hien thffc hda "3 trgng tdm", vdi "3 dot phd" van ra't cham chap do va'p phai nhieu lUc can. Trong do, lUc can quan trgng nhd't bat dau Iff sy chdm chap cai cdch the ehe kinh te.
Nhin tdng the, cho de'n cud'i ndm 2013, Chinh phii van ddnh gid, cdc giai phdp thyc hien ldi cd cau kinh le cho de'n nay, ve cd ban, vdn trong the che hien hanh, chya cd ddt phd trong the che huy dgng. phdn bd va sff dung ngudn lyc xd hdi theo cd ehe thj irydng, Dieu ndy cd nguyen nhan tff nhdn thffc tren mdt so vd'n de ve ehu trffdng, quan diem da dUde de ra van cdn khac nhau ddn de'n ddi mdi the ehe, chinh sdch edn ngap ngffng, thie'u nha't qudn, nha't Id ve vai trd ciia Nhd nUde va kinh te nhd nudc trong kinh te'thi trudng, bao dam quyen Idm chii Clia nhan dan. sd hifu va quyen sff dung dat dai, gid cd mdt so'mat hdng \d djch vu cdng thiet yeu, chua tao dydc ddt phd de huy dgng manh mgi ngudn lyc cho phdt trien...
Vdl muc lieu hai nam cud'i cua ke'hoach 5 ndm ldng tinh on dinh vffng chac kinh te vT md, bao dam cac can dd'i Idn eua nen kinh te', mdl sd' chi lieu kinh te quan trgng cung da dydc dieu chinh. Theo dd, phdn dd'u dat td'c do tang trffdng kinh te binh quan 2 ndm 2014-2015 khoang 6%/ndm: gia tieu diing tang khoang 77f/ndm;
tdng vd'n dau tff loan xa hdi khoang 3I%-32% GDP;
kim ngach xua't kha'u tdng binh qudn 10%/ndm; giai quyet viee ldm cho 3,0-3,2 trieu lao dgng; ty le thd't nghiep d khu vffc thdnh thj dudi 4%. Chi lieu cho rieng 2014 dUde quyet djnh vdi td'c do tang trUdng kinh te dal khoang 5,8%: gid lieu diing tang khoang 7%: kim ngach xud't khau tdng 10%; ty le nhdp sieu khoang 6%;
tdng vd'n dau tU loan \a hgi bdng khoang 30% GDP va bdi chi ngdn sdch 5.3% GDP.
Chi tieu dieu chinh giam. nhUng dp lye ddi vdi
27
NGHIEM CCfCI - TRAO DOI
cdng tdc quan Iy, dieu hanh kinh te \ i md khdng hd nhe di. Vdi ndm 2014, Chinh phu xac dmh '"liep tuc ihUc hien chinh sach tdi khda phd'i hdp hieu qua vdi chinh sdch tien te vd cdc chinh sdch kinh le vi md khdc nham bao dam d'n dinh kinh te' vT md. thiic day tdng trUdng kinh te".
Vdi viee ndi bpi chi va phdt hanh bd sung trai phie'u dUdc ky vgng chi cho dau tUphdt trien se tdng len. Song tren thUe le, chi dau lU phat tnen dang giam mgt each manh me, 2013 la ndm giam nhd't kd tff khi ddi mdi ve chl dau tU phat trie'n. Trong giai doan 2006-2010, chi dau tu phat trien binh quan Id khodng 35%-37%.
tham chi nam dau 40%, cd nhffng ndm Ien ldi 42%, nhffng nam 2013 ldng dau tff todn xa hdi chi edn ydc dat 29,1 % GDP. Ne'u mudn dat mffe tang GDP 5.8% trong nam 2014, thi long vd'n dau tff todn xa hdi phdi dat tff 30% GDP trd len. Trong khi dd, cdc chinh sdch ddi mdi kinh te ve cd ban da phat huy het vai trd la dgng lyc phdt trien, can phdi cd nhifng dot phd mdi de tao sffc sd'ng mdi cho sU phat trien lie'p theo.
Thyc le' tren ddi hdi mpt nghe thuat dieu hdnh het sffc khdn kheo, dac biel la vdi hai cdng cu chinh sdch tien te vd ldi khda. Nhffng, de giai quye't can cd nhffng ye'u kem ndi lai da gay bd'l on cho nen kinh te' nhieu nam qua, thi ea trong ngan han va ddi han, cai cdeh the che kinh te cung dang Id yeu cau cap thiet.
M O T sd KHUYEN NGHI GIAI PHAP CHINH SACH
Tren cd sd thUe trang va tridn vgng ciia nen kinh le', nham tdng cUdng hieu lUc, hieu qua quan ly kinh te vi md, ffng phd kip thdi. hieu qua vdi cdc bien ddng kinh te - xa hgi trong vd ngodi nffdc, gdp phdn thyc hien cac muc tieu kinh te - xd hdi do Qud'c hdi vd Chinh phu quyet dinh, ngay 06/8/2013, Thu tydng Chinh phu dd ky Quyet djnh so' 1317/QD-TTg phe duyet De dn cat each cd che phd'i hdp trong quan Iy vd didu hdnh kinh te'vTmddo Bd Ke hoach vd Dau tff de trinh, Quye't dinh dang dffdc cdc cd quan lien quan, chu tri vd dau md'i la Bd Ke' hoaeh va Dau tu lich cUc trien khai, trudc mdt la viec sdm thd'ng nhd'l ban hdnh Quy ehe phdi hdp trong dieuhanh va quanly kinh te vimd giffa 4 cdquan Id Bg Ke hoach va Dau iff, NHNN Viet Nam. Bd Tai chinh vd Bd Cdng ThUdng.
Ndi hdm cua quy che ndy chu yeu la sU phdi hdp giffa cac chinh sdch tdi khda, lien te. tin dung, dau tU, thUdng mai vd gid ca nham ddm bdo thUe hien nhd't qudn va can dd'i cdc muc lieu kinh te' vT md. bao gdni tdng irydng, lam phat, cdc can dd'i ldn va viec lam,
Trydc mat cho ndm 2014-2015, tren ed sd dinh hydng dieu hdnh, Qud'c hdi yeu cau: "tiep tuc thUc hien chinh sach tien le Hnh hoat, chinh sdch tai khda chat che", chung ldi xin cd mdt sd'khuye'n nghi nhUsau:
- Chinh phli sdm tuyen bdse theo dudi muc iicu lgm phdt 7% (+/-17c/ndm) irong 2014-2015 vd co itii'.si ihd'p h(fn d irung hgn vd kien dinh cdc chinh sdch nhdm Uu liin giddn dinh kinh ti'vTmd. Dieu ndy giup cac ehii the
kinh tdva cdng ehiing hinh thanh ky vgng lam phat hdp ly va yen tam trien khai cac ke'hoach, dyan san xua't. kinh doanh hav thyc hien cac dU dinh lieu dung cd nhan.
Theo dd. NHNN khd'n trUdng xay dUng va trien khai khudn khd dieu hdnh chinh sdeh den te theo lam phdt muc tieu. Khi cd sU xung dot giffa cae muc tieu hoat ddng dffdc giao. NHNN dffdc phep theo dudi muc lieu Uu tien so mgt la lam phat, - NHNN cdng sdm luyen bo .sc Iheo duoi muc lieu dn dinh K gid vdi tnen do bie'n dgng liep trong 2014-2015. khong qud 2%-3%, de cdc nha dau tu ca irong nUdc vd ngoai nudc yen tdm dau lUkinh doanh, cung nhU ddn ehiing ed the san sang ehuyen hda tdi san ngoai te sang noi te de sff dung. NHNN cd the can nhac, sff dung den du dia cud'i cung ve lai sua'i ngoai te dd'i vdi ede td chffc kinh te (hien Id 0,25%/nam, dffa ve 0%) de ho ird cho dinh hudng dieu hanh ty gia ndy, Danh ddi, viec ndi long dan tien tdi ty do hoa tdi khoan vd'n can chat ehe, than trpng vii theo mdl Id trinh thieh hdp, Tuy nhien, can cff vao Id trinh thyc hien cdc cam kei vdi qud'c le' va khu vffc, khi IhUc lUc quy dvt trff ngoai hd'i dffdc dam bao, NHNN can cd nhffng dieu chinh ty gia thich hop de phan dnh diing hdn gid in doi ngoai thye cua Ddng Viet Nam theo nguyen tdc ngang gid sffc mua.
- Trong ndm 2014-2015, su ptioi Ixap chdi die, nhip nhdng gida chinh sdch ldi khoa vd chinh sdch lien ti cdng co v nghTa ddc hiet quan irgng khi md NSNI^
gia tdng mdc tyoi chi vd Bo Tdi chinh phai day mgnh phdt hdnh trdi phie'u chinh phu (TPCP). Cu the. NHNN trong khi van can dam bao cung ffng dii thanh khoan cho he thd'ng td chffc tin dung, khich le he thdng dap ffng du vd'n tin dung cho nen kinh le tren nguyen ldc hieu qua. nhung khong dffdc lam gia lang dp lffc lam phdt lien le, ddng thdi phai tao dieu kien cho Bg Tai chinh phat hdnh thdnh cdng lin phieu va TPCP theo ke hoach 2014-2015, Ngifdc lai, BgTai chinh cung can tinh loan kyva thd'ng nhd'l vdi NHNN ve Iffdng, cdcau ky ban. thdi diem eung nhff mffe Idi sual trai phieu dff kien phat hanh, Mffe lai suatc6 the can nhich len de dap ffng ky vgng nha dau tff. nhffng khdng phd vd mat bdng la' sua't trong nen kinh te' mdi hinh thanh.
Can het sffc lffu y la he thd'ng to chifc tin dung hien dang ndm giff tdi gan 450 nghin ty ddng tin phie'u vd TPCP. chie'm khoang 90% tdng lUdng TPCP dang ILW
• l l l l i . l
Km
hanh la mdt quan ngai Idn. Vdi dp lUc phdt hdnh TPCP gdp, ca de dao nd den ban (tdng 2 nam 2014-2015 Id khoang 320 nghin ty ddng. du dodn se phdt hdnh tdp trung trong nam 2014), nguy cd nd edng chuyen sang trang thdi ma'l an toan Id CO kha ndng. keo theo dd la nguy cd bd't dn he thd'ng ngan bang.
- Cdn can thUdng mai luy da thang bang, nhung khdng ben vffng vd khdng thyc chd't. Ne'u tinh ca lUdng vdng mie'ng trong ndm 2013, le ra nen kinh te se nhap ve ne'u NHNN khdng dffng ra nhdp thay de ban dd'u thau can thiep thj trudng (hien Ien ldi 67 td'n, iffdng dUdng 3 ly USD), cdn can thffdng mai cd the se bj am them khoang 3 ty USD. Dieu can luu f la, so'ngoai te le ra nen kinh te phai bd ra de nhdp kha'u Iffdng vang vat chd't tren, phai chay ve NHNN thdng qua he thd'ng td chffc tin dung lam gia tdng quy du trff ngoai hd'i nha nffdc vd NHNN sff dung chinh so' dd de nhdp vang ve ban da'u thau. Tuy nhien, thffc te' khdng ban dien ra nhff vdy. Dieu nay chffng to nen kinh te cd da'u hidu gdm giff. tich trff ngoai te, lffc Id mffe dp dd-Ia hda dii da giam nhieu, nhffng van cdn khd ndng. Ndi cdch khdc, muc "Ldi vd sai sdt" se ldn ldm can cdn thanh todn tdng the xa'u di so dy bdo.
Nhff vay, cd Ie da den liic cdn ihii'i cdn nhdc, .\em xet tgi chu trUifng qudn ty th;
trudng vdng mieng iheo Nghi dinh 24/CP de ddm bdo tgi ich thu dugc ldn han chi phi bd ra vd ve ddi hgn, ludn titu quy lugt cUa ihi irffdng.
- NHNN cdng cdn elm dong linh di'n cdc cdng cu chinh sdch lien te thich hgp vd .sdn .sdng sd dung duae de irung hda bdt lugng lien bam ra qua kenh chii't khd'u irdi phii'u VAMC, bdi Iffdng nay dy tinh cd the len ldi 70-80 nghin ty ddng trong ndm 2014 khi mdkha ndng Cdngty Quan Iy ldi sdn cua edc td chffc tin dung Viet Nam - VAMC tdi cud'i 2014 se mua vdo khoang 100-120 nghin ly ddng. ^
- NHNN nin cdn nhac. cd the tam ihdi
phdi tiii liep thdi han hieu lUc cua Thdng IU02/2013/TT- NHNN, ngay 21/01/2013 quy dinh ve phdn loai tai san cd, mffe trich, phffdng phdp inch lap du phdng rui ro vd viec sff dung dy phdng de xff ly nii ro trong boat ddng Clia to chffc tin dung, chi nhdnh ngan hang nydc ngodi.
them 6 tdi 12 thang nffa de ede td ehffc lin dung cd them thdi gian cung cd', ehd'n chinh, khac phue khd khdn hien lai. Bdi trong bd'i cdnh kmh t e - ldi chinh hien tai, viec sdm thuc thi Thdng lU 02 ddng thdi vdi viec xff ly triet de hien tUdng sd hifu cheo, dau tu cheo, he thd'ng td chffc tin dung chdc chdn se bj rdi vao tinh trang sut giam vd'n chii sd hffu. keo theo thu hep quy md tdi sdn va Idm xa'u di cac ly Id an todn, ldnh manh tdi ehinh.
Nhieu td chffc tin dung, ke ca ngan hang thffdng mai nhd nffdc ed the phai dd'i mat vdi nguy cd cut vd'n tu cd, dd vd, phd san.
Rdng hdn vd bao triim hdn, theo chiing tdi, Bd Kd' hoach va Dau tu phoi hdp vdi NHNN. Bd Tat chinh va Bd Cdng ThUdng nen tich cUc trien khai
"Lap chudng trinh tdi chinh" tren cd sd ngudn dff lieu chuan mUc va cdc dieu kien, kich ban kinh te' hdp ly de' thffc sy cd the khai thdc va sff dung cdng cu ndy mdt cdch hffu hidu, giiip cai thien hieu qua phd'i hdp trong quan ly vd didu hdnh kinh te' vl md. Ben canh dd, nhffng giai phdp cdn ed hdn nham tao nen tang phat trien ben vffng cho nhffng giai doan tie'p theo Id day manh tnen khai cai cdch the che' vd tdi cd cau long the nen kinh te.Q
TAI LIt:U THAM KHAO
1. Qude hdl (2013). Nghj quye'l sd 53/2013/QH 13 ve Ke hogch phdt trien kinh le- .vd hdi ndm 2014 2. Thu Iffdng Chinh phu (2013). Bdo cdo ve Tmh hinh kmh ic - \d hgi ndm 2013. ke't qud 3 ndm ihUc hi^n Ke hoach 5 ndm 2011-2015 vd nhiem vu ndm 2014-2015. Trinh bdy tai K> hgp thff 6, Qudc hgi khda Xlll. ngdy 21/10/2013
3. Uy ban Kinh te - Qud'c hdi (2013). Bdo cdo ihdm tra ddnh gid kel qud ihuc liiin Nghi quyel cua Qud'c hgi ve Ke hogch Phdi trien kinh le- .xd hgi ndm 2013, 3 ndm 2011-2013; Ke hogch Phdi irien kinh lc- vd hgi ndm 2014
