Nhan dang rui ro thanh khoan tai Cong t y co pr Van tai xang dau dUdng thuy
Le Van Luyen
Pho Giam doc Hpc vien Ngan hang Vu Thi Hau
Trudng Oai hoc Kinh te & Quan tri kmh doanh, Dai hoc Thai Nguyen
Quy trinh qudn tri rui ro tdi chinh noi chung vd qudn tri rid ro thanh khadn ciia doanh nghiep not neng bao gom cdc noi dung ca bdn nhu: nhgn dang rid ro, do luang rui ro, phdn tich/ddnh gid riii ro vd tdi tra rui ro. Bdi viet ndy nghien cuv noi dung nhgn dang rui ro thanh khoan, la buac dau tien trong quy trinh qudn tri rui ro thanh khoan cua doanh nghiep, trong do tap trung thiet ke thang do vd sir dung he thong cdc chi tieu nghien ciru phu hap de nhgn dang rui ro thanh khoan (co hay khong; mice do cao, co the chap nhgn duac hay thdp) trong giai dogn 2015- 2019 ciia Cong ty co phdn Van tdi Xang dau Duong thuy Petrolime (PJTA CO), tir do de xudt vd khuyen nghi cdc bien phdp phong ngira, hgn che rui ro thanh khodn cho Cong ty trong thai gian t&i.
Tir khoa: Tdi san tdi chinh, naphdi tj-d tai chinh, chenh lech thanh khodn thuan, he so khd ndng thanh todn, rui ro lai chinh, nhdn dgng rid ro thanh khodn.
Petrolimex indentifying liquidity risks at Petroiimex Joint stock tanker Company
Abstract The process of general nsk management and payment nsk management of enterpnses include basic aspects as follows' identifying risks, measuring risks, analyzing risks, assessing risks and sponsoring risks. This paper examines the very first stage in the above process, namely payment risk identification with focus on designing an appropnate scale and system of research criteria to detect payment risks (whether exist or not;
exiSt at high, acceptable or low level) at Petrolimex Joint Stock Tanker Company (PJTACO) during 2015-2019.
Accordingly, recommendations and preventive measurements are proposed to diminish payment risks at PJTACO in the near future,
Keywords financial assets, financial accounts payable, net liquidity difference; liquidity ratio; financial risks;
identifying payment risk,
Luyen Van Le, Assoc Prof PhD Email' luyenlvhvnh@yahoo com Vice President of Banking Academy of Vietnam Hau Thi Vu, PhD.
Email. vuthihau@tueba edu vn
Thai Nguyen University of Economics and Business Administration (TUEBA) - TNU
Ngaynhan 27/02/2020 Ngay nhan ban sita-01/04/2020 Ngay duyet dang. 17/04/20^
Tap chi Khoa hoc & Dao tao Ngan hang © Hoc vie
So 215-Thang 4. 2020 ^ ^ ' ^ ^ ^
LE VAN LUYEN-VD THI HAU
1. Oat van de
Riii ro thanh khoan la rui ro do doanh nghiep gap khd khan va khong tha thyc hien cac nghia vy lian quan den cac khoan na tai chinh {khoan ng cua nha cung cap, ngan hang hay cac khoan ng phat sinh khac). Riii ro thanh khoan cua doanh nghiep chii yau phat sinh tir viec cac tai san tai chinh va ng phai tra tai chinh cd cac thdi diam dao ban lech nhau.
Altman (1968) nhan dang rui ro thanh khoan ciia doanh nghiep thdng qua md hinh Z vdi 4 yau td anh hudng (ca cau tai san, kha nang sinh Idi, ca cau ngudn vdn va hieu suat boat dgng) va 5 chi sd: Z ^ 1,2X, + 1,4X, + 3,3X3-^ 0,64X^ + 0,999X5 trong do: X, la Vdn luu dong/Tdng tai san (X, - WC/TA), X^ la Lgi nhuan gitr lai/Tdng tai san (X, = RE/TA), X^ la Lgi nhuan trudc lai vay va thua/Tdng tai san (X, - EBIT/TA), X^ la Gia trj thj trudng cua vdn co phan/gia tri sd sach cua ng phai tra (X_, = ME/TL), X. la Doanh thu ban hang/Tdng tai san (X- - S/TA). Nau Z
> 2,99 lan, doanh nghiep d trong viing an toan, chua cd nguy ca pha san. Nau 1,81 lan < Z < 2,99 lan, doanh nghiep d trong viing canh bao, cd tha cd nguy ca pha san.
Nau Z < 1,81 lan, doanh nghiep d trong viing nguy hiam, nguy ca pha san cao.
Ann-Katrin Napp (2011) nhan dang nii ro thanh khoan dya tren gia h-i trung binh chi tieu tai chinh ciia hai nhdm doanh nghiep (khdng pha san va cd Idia nang pha san) thong qua cac chi tiau: Ng phai tra/TSng tai san (D/TA) hay Vdn chii sd hiru/Tdng tai san (E/TA); Vdn luu ddng/Tdng tai san (WC/TA), Lgi nhuan trudc thua va lai vay/Tdng tai san (EBIT/TA); va (iv) Lgi nhuan giir lai/Tdng tai san (RE/TA). Theo do, doanh nghiep cd nang luc thanh toan khi cac chi tieu E/TA, WC/TA, EBIT/TA, RE/TA dat gia tri tuang irng la 65%, 38%, 10% va 36% trd lan, nau dudi nguang nay doanh nghiep cd the se roi vao tinh trang pha san (Bang 1).
Vu Thj Hau (2013), nhan dang riii ro thanh khoan tai cac doanh nghiep cdng nghiep niam yat tren thi trudng chung khoan Viet Nam thdng qua bien phy thugc la he so kha nang thanh toan (bao gom he so kha nang thanh toan tdng quat, he sd kha nang thanh toan ngan ban, he so kha nang thanh toan nhanh) va cac bian dgc lap (Y, - Y|,) do ludng cac yau td anh hudng bao gdm ca cau ng, kha nang sinh Idi, hieu suat boat ddng, ca cau ngudn vdn, ca cau tai san va lai suat tin dung. Kat qua nghian cuu cho thay kha nang sinh Idi, hieu suat boat dgng va ca cau ngudn vdn cd mdi quan he ngugc chiau vdi riii ro thanh khoan; doanh nghiep nganh khai Bang I. Cia tri trung binh c^c chi tieu tai chinh ciia nhom doanh nghiep
khdng pha san va nhom doanh nghiep pha san Chi tieu tai ctiinh
1 NInom ktlong pha san D/TA 35%
E/TA 65%
WC/TA 38%
EBIT/TA 10%
RE/TA 36%
2, Ntiom ptia san - Trung binti 4 nam trucfc - Trung binh 3 nam trLPCKC - Trung binh 2 nam tru-ffc - Trung binh nam tri^ac
55%
58%
7 1 % 85%
45%
42%
29%
15%
23%, 18%
9%
1 % 4 % - 6 % - 2 1 % -32%,
- 1 % -7%
-30%
-63%, Nguon: .4nn-Katrin Napp (2011): chi lieu E/TA Id linh loan ciia tdc gid
So 215- Thang 4. 2020- Tap chi Khoa hoc & Dao tao Ngan hang 5 7
Nhan dang rui ro thanh khoan tai Cong ty co phan Van tai xang dau dddng thiiy
khoang va doanh nghiep nganh cha bian che tao cd rui ro thanh khoan cao ban so vdi doanh nghiep nganh dien khi nude.
Bai viet nay tap trung nghien ciru va sit dyng cac chi tiau tai chinh danh gia nang tyc thanh toan ciia doanh nghiep da thiat ka thang do nhan dang nii ro thanh khoan (cd hay khdng; muc do cao, cd tha chap nhan dugc hay thap) cua PJTACO, tir dd da xuk va khuyan nghi cac bien phap phong ngira, ban che rui ro thanh khoan cho PJTACO trong thdi gian tdi. Day la nghien cim thuc nghiem cua tac gia tai PJTACO va khdng trung lap vdi cac nghien ciru khac da dugc thuc hien tnrdc dd.
2. Phuong phap va he thdng chi tieu nghien cuu
2.7. Phirffng phdp nghien cuu - Phuang phdp thu thdp thong tin: Du' heu nghian cuu thir cap dugc thu thap thong qua cac bao cao tai chinh hgp nhat cho nam tai chinh ket thiic ngay 31/12 da dugc kiem toan tir nam 2015 dan 2019, da phuc vu cho viec nhan dang riii ro thanh khoan (cd hay khdng; muc &o cao, cd tha chap nhan dugc hay thap) ciia PJTACO, tai trang website ciia Sd Giao dich Chirng khoan Thanh ph6 Hd Chi Minh (https://
www.hsx.vn).
- Phuang phdp tong hap thong tin: DiJ lieu nghian cuu dugc tdng hgp tran phan mem Microsoft Excel theo tirng nam (5 nam, tir nam 2015 den 2019), theo cac khoan muc tdng hgp Tai san tai chinh, Ng phai tra tai chinh, Tai san ngan han. Hang tdn kho, Ng ngan han, Ng dai han, Gia trj cdn lai ciia tai san cd dinh). Tran ca sd dd, Chenh lech thanh khoan thuan (H,), He sd klia nang thanh toan tong quat (HJ,
He sd kha nang thanh toan hien hanh (H^), He sd kha nang thanh toan nhanh (H^), He sd thanh toan ng dai ban ( H J ISn lugt dugc xac djnh dk. phan tich/dan'h gia ket qua kinh doanh va nhan dang rui ro thanh khoan cua PJTACO.
- Phuang phdp phdn tich thong tin: Tren CO sd du lieu da dugc thu thap va tdng hgp, tac gia sir dyng phucmg phap tinh toan, so sanh, phan tich va danh gia 6e nhan dang va trinh bay bien phap phong ngira, ban che rui ro thanh khoan cho PJTACO trong thdi gian tdi.
2.2. He thong cdc chi tieu nghien cuu - Tdi sdn tdi chinh la cac loai tai san sau:
tian mat; cong cu von chii sd huu cua dan vi khac; quyan theo hgp ddng da nhan tian mat hoac tai san tai chinh khac tir dan vi khac; hoac trao doi cac tai san tai chinh hoac ng phai tra tai chinh vdi don vi khac theo cac diau kien cd tha cd lgi cho dan vi, hgp dong se hoac cd the dugc thanh toan bang cac cdng cu vdn chu sd hiJu cua don vi (Bo Tai chinh, 2002).
- Naphdi trd tdi chinh la cac nghTa vu mang tinh bat bugc da thanh toan tien mat hoac tai san tai chinh cho dan vi khac, trao ddi cac tai san tai chinh hoac ng phai tra tai chinh vdi dan vi khac theo cac diau kien khong co lgi cho dan vi; hoac hgp ddng se hoac cd the dugc thanh toan bang cac cdng cu vdn chii sd huu ciia dan vj (Bg Tai chinh, 2002).
- Chenh lech thanh khodn thuan (H = Tdi sdn tdi chinh - Naphdi trd tdi chinh). Cac tai san tai chinh va ng phai tra tai chinh chi dugc bii trir vdi nhau va trinh bay gia tri thuSn tran bang can ddi ka toan khi va chi khi doanh nghiep co q u y k hgp phap
5 8 Tap chi Khoa hoc & Oao tao Ngan hang- So 215- Thang 4 2020
LE VAN L U Y E N - v u THI HAU
de bii trir gia tri da dugc ghi nhan va cd du dinh thanh toan tren ca sd thuan hoac ghi nhan tai san va thanh toan ng phai tra ciing mot thdi diam.
- He so khd ndng thanh todn tong quat (H,^ Tong Tdi sdn/Tong naphdi trd) phan anh kha nang quan he giira tai san ma doanh nghiep hien dang quan ly su dung vdi tdng sd ng phai tra. H, cho biat trong mot ddng ng phai tra cd bao nhiau ddng tai san dam bao. Nau H,> 1, chirng td kha nang thanh toan cua doanh nghiep la tdt.
Nau V{^< 1 qua nhieu thi chua tdt vi dieu dd chiing td doanh nghiep chua tan dung dugc ca hdi chiem dyng vdn. Neu H2<1 va tian den 0 bao hieu sy pha san cua doanh nghiep, von chu sd hiru ciia doanh nghiep giam va mat dan, tdng tai san hien cd ciia doanh nghiep khdng dii tra ng ma doanh nghiep phai thanh toan (Vii Thi Hau, 2013).
- He so khd ndng thanh todn hien hdnh (Hj^Tong tdi sdn ngdn hgn/Tong na ngdn hgn) phan anh mdi quan he giu'a tai san ngan han va cac khoan ng ngan han. H3 tha hien muc do dam bao cua tai san luu ddng vdi ng ngan han. Ng ngan han la cac khoan ng phai thanh toan trong ky, do dd doanh nghiep phai diing tai san thuc cd cua minh da thanh toan bang each chuyan ddi mot bo phan thanh tian. H3= 2 la hgp ly nhat, vi nhu the doanh nghiep se duy tri dugc kha nang thanh toan ngan han ddng thai duy tri dugc kha nang kinh doanh.
H^> 2 tha hien kha nang thanh toan hien hanh ciia doanh nghiep du thira. H^> 2 qua nhiau chung td von luu ddng ciia doanh nghiep bi ir dgng, trong khi do hieu qua kinh doanh chua tdt. H^< 2 cho thay kha nang thanh toan hien hanh chua cao. H <
2 qua nhieu thi doanh nghiep khong the thanh toan dugc hat cac khoan ng ngan ban dan han tra, ddng thdi uy tin ddi vdi cac chu ng giam, tai san de du trir kinh doanh khdng dii (Vii Thi Hau, 2013).
- He so khd ndng thanh todn nhanh (H^=
Tong tdi sdn ngdn hgn- Hdng ton kho/
Tong na ngdn hgn) cho biet cdng ty cd bao nhiau dong von bang tian va cac khoan tucmg duang tien (trir hang tdn kho) da thanh toan ngay cho mot ddng ng ngan han. Hj^ 1 dugc coi la hgp ly nhat vi nhu vay doanh nghiep vira duy tri dugc kha nang thanh toan nhanh vira kliong bi mat ca hgi do kha nang thanh toan ng mang lai. H^< 1 cho thay doanh nghiep gap kho khan trong viec thanh toan ng. H^> 1 phan anh dnh hinh thanh toan ng khdng tdt vi tien va cac khoan tuang ducmg tian bi ir dgng, vdng quay vdn cham lam giam hieu qua sir dyng vdn (Vii Thi Hau, 2013).
- He so thanh todn na ddi hgn (H^— Gid tri con igi cua tdi sdn co dinh duac hinh thdnh tir nguon von vay hoac na ddi hgn/
Tong na ddi hgn). Trong do, ng dai ban la nhirng khoan ng cd thdi gian dao ban tran 1 nam, doanh nghiep di vay dai han da dau tu vao tai san cd djnh; nguon da tra ng Bang 2. Thang do muc do rui ro thanh khoan
STT 01 02 03
Chi tieu nhan dang rui ro thanh khoan H, = 0 , H , = 1 , H , = 2 , H ^ = 1 , H , = 1 H, < 0 . H j < 1 , H j < 2 , H, < 1 . H 5 < 1 H, > 0 , H, > 1 , H 3 > 2 . H, > 1 , H , > 1
MLPC 6b rui ro thanh l^hoan Co t h i chap nhan di^oc Cao
Th§p
Ngudn- Ann-Katrin Napp (2011) Fu Gang, Liu Dan (2012). vd de xudl ciia tdc gid
So 215- Thang 4 2020- Tap chi Khoa hoc & Oao tao Ngan hang 5 9
Nhan dang rui ra thanh khoan tai Cong ty co phan Van tai xang dau dJdng thuy
dai ban la tdng gia trj tai san c6 dinh cua doanh nghiep dugc hinh thanh tir v6n vay chua dugc thu hdi. H. > Idugc coi la tdt vi khi dd khoan ng dai ban ciia doanh nghiep ludn dugc dam bao bang tai san cd dinh.
H. < 1 phan anh tinh trang khdng tdt va kha nang thanh toan ng dai han ciia doanh nghiep.
Thang do mire do riii ro thanh khoan ciia cong ty dugc thiet lap da nhan dang riii ro thanh khoan thong qua cac chi tiau bao gdm: H,, H„ H,, H^ va H. (Bang 2).
3. Ket qua nghien ciru
3.1. Dac diem hoat dong kinh doanh cua CTCP Van tdi Xang ddu Du&ng thuy Petrolimex
PJTACO dugc chuyan tir doanh nghiep Nha nude- Xi nghiep sira chira va van tai xang dau tryc thudc Cdng ty Van tai Xang dau Vitaco tlieo Quyk dinh so 151 /1999/
QD ngay 09/7/1999 ciia Thu tudng Chinh phii. GiSy chimg nhan dang ky kinh doanh sd 063350 do Sd Ka hoach & Diu tu Thanh phd Hd Chi Minh cap ngay 30/9/1999 va gidy chung nhan dang ky doanh nghiep thay ddi mdi nhat la lan thir 21 da ngay 18/5/2018 (ma sd doanh nghiep:
0301825283). Try sd chinh ciia PJTACO tai Tang 7, tda nha sd 322, Dien Bian Phii, Phuong 22, Quan Binh Thanh, thanh ph6 Hd Chi Minh. LTnh vyc kinh doanh ciia Cdng ty la thuang mai va dich vy.
Nganh ngha kinh doanh ciia PJTACO bao g6m: Kinh doanh van tai dudng thiiy; dich vy sua chira, nang cap phuang tien van tai thiiy, sue rua tau, kinh doanh vat tu, thiat bj phuc vy cho nganh; kinh doanh, sira chu'a gian khoan va cac thiet bi dau khi; kinh doanh dai ly mua ban cac san
pham dau klii; xay dung lap dat sua chira cac cdng trinh cdng nghiep, cdng trinh thuy, kho xang dau; kinh doanh xang dau cho cac tau bien, tau sdng; dai ly tau bian, cung ung tau bien, lai dat tau bien; ddng mdi, sira chira phuang tien van tai thuy, tau danh ca; dich vy kho bai, cau cang, ben neo dau tau...
Do dac thu hoat dgng kinh doanh trong ITnh vyc thuang mai va dich vu van tai xang dSu dudng thiiy, PJTACO tap trung sir dyng chii yeu cac khoan ng tai chinh ngdn han tir mot nam trd xudng bao gdm cac khoan vay, phai tra ngudi ban, phai tra khac, chi phi phai tra nen Cdng ty tiam an nguy ca cao doi mat vdi nii ro thanh khoan nau cac khoan muc tai san tai chinh khong dap irng dugc nhu cau thanh toan trong ngan han. Theo dd, ty trgng Ng phai tra tai chinh tir mot nam trd xuong (na ngan ban) tran tdng Ng phai tra tai chinh tir nam 2015 dan 2019 cd xu hudng gia tang, nam 2015 la 39,49%; nam 2019 la 42,98%; tang 3,49% so vdi nam 2015.
3.2. Nhan dang nii ro thanh khodn tai CTCP Van tdi Xang ddu Dieang thuy Petrolimex
Q Tdi sdn tdi chinh
Bang 3 cho thay quy mo Tai san tai chinh cua PJTACO CO xu hudng giam tir nam 2015 dan 2019, nam 2019 giam so vdi 2015 la 57.080 trieu ddng, tuang irng giam 68,53%. Can triic ciia tai san tai chinh cung cd sy thay doi, chii yeu tap trung d khoan muc Tien va cac khoan tucmg duang tian, Phai thu khach hang va phai thu khac, Dau tu dai han khac. Nam 2015, Tian va cac khoan tuong duang tian, Phai thu khach hang va phai thu khac, Ddu tu dai ban khac chiam ty trong tucmg irng
6 0 Tap chi Khoa hoc & Dao tao Ngan hang- So 215- Thang 4, 2020
LE VAN LUYEN-VO THI HAU
64,63%; 34,95%; 0,39% tran tdng Tai san tai chinh; nam 2019 ty le nay thay ddi tuang irng la 36,13%; 62,48%; 1,25%;
trong do ty trgng Tien va cac khoan tuong duong tian giam 28,5%; Phai thu khach hang va phai thu khac tang 27,53%; Ddu tu dai han tang 0,86%.
o Naphdi trd tdi chinh
Can cir vao kat qua tinh toan d Bang 4, quy md Ng phai tra tai chinh ciia PJTACO CO xu hudng gia tang trong giai doan 2015- 2019, nam 2019 tang so vdi 2015 la 163.247 trieu ddng, tuong ung tang 114,06%. c a u triic ciia Ng phai tra tai chinh cQng cd sy thay doi, chu yau tap trung d khoan muc Cac khoan vay, Phai tra ngudi ban va phai tra khac. Nam 2015, Cac khoan vay, Phai tra ngudi ban va phai tra khac chiem ty trgng tuang ung 76,10%
va 23,89% tran tdng Ng phai tra tai chinh;
nam 2019 ty le nay thay doi tuang ung la 86,94% va 12,66%; yong dd ty trgng Cac khoan vay gia tang tuang ung dat gia tri la 10,84%.
o Chenh lech thanh khodn thudn (H^), khd ndng thanh todn (H^, H^, H^. HJ vd nhdn dang rill ro thanh khodn
Ket qua tinh toan d Bang 5 cho thay H^
ludn nhd ban l<hdng va cd xu hudng gia
tang trong giai doan 2015- 2019, dac biet la giai doan 2017- 2019. Nam 2015, H1 la -59.834 trieu ddng, nam 2019 la -280.161 trieu dong, ty le tang tuong ung la 368,23%. H2, H3 va H4 co xu hudng giam, nam 2014 la 1,81 ISn; 3,97 ISn va 1,17 lan; nam 2019 giam tuong irng cdn 1,67 lan; 0,49 lan va 0,29 lan. PJTACO cho rang muc do tap trung riii ro d6i vdi viec tra ng la thap va Cdng ty co kha nang thanh toan cac khoan ng den ban tii' ddng tian tir hoat dgng kmh doanh va tian thu tir cac tai san tai chinh dao ban.
Tuy nhian, kat qua nghien ciru sii' dyng thang do nhan dang rui ro thanh khoan (Bang 4) cung cho thay PJTACO hien dang phai doi mat vdi rui ro thanh khoan d mire cao. Riii ro thanh khoan nam 2016 la thap nhat, nam 2019 la cao nhat tuy nhien HI dlu am (Hl< 0). Nam 2016 Hl = -17.852 trieu ddng, nam 2017 la -135.650 trieu dong va nam 2019 la -280.161 trieu ddng. Nam 2017, 2018 va 2019, H_,< 1,0 lan cho thay do lugng hang ton kho cao nan PJTACO hien dang gap kho khan trong viec thanh toan nhanh cac khoan ng ngan han. Dac biet, nam 2019, kha nang thanh toan hien hanh, thanh toan nhanh ciia PJTACO dau khdng d miic riii ro thanh khoan co tha chap nhan dugc, diau nay bat ngudn tir viec cac khoan ng ngan ban va lugng hang tdn kho gia tang dan Bang 3. Tinh hinh tai san tai chinh
Khoan muc
1 Ti§n va cac l<hoan tu-ong du'ong ti&n 2. Phai thu khach hang & phai thu khac 3. Cac khoan ky quy, ky c y o c 4. Oau t i / dai han khac TOng tai san tai chinh (1-4)
Nam 2015 53 830 29.112 25 328 83.295
Nam 2016 69.362 28.151 23 328 97.864
Nam 2017 23.750 36.521 23 328 60.622
Dffn V!
Nam 2018 27.868 28.732 34 328 56.962
•• Trieu don^
Nam 2019 9.471 16.378 38 328 26.215 Nguon. Bdo cao Idi chinh nam 2015- 2019 cua PJTACO vd long hap tinh loan ciia idc gia
So 215- Thang 4. 2020- Tap chi Khoa hoc & Dao tao Ngan hang 6 1
Nhan dang rui ro thanh khoan tai Cong ty co phan Van tai xang dau dddng tiiuy
Bang 4. Tinh hinh ng phai tra tai chinh
Dan vi- Trieu dong Khoan muc
1 Cac khoan vay 2. Pha 3. Chi
li tra ngu'oi ban & phai tra khac phi phai tra
4. Nhan ky quy, ky cyo'C ng^n/d Tong r "lO phai tra tai chinh (1-4)
ai han Nam 2015 108.926 34.203 0 0 143.129
Nam 2016 87.227 28.489 0 0 115.716
Nam 2017 176.946 18.414 912 0 196 272
Nam Nam 2018 2019 137,042 266 367
19.188 38.800 834 1.065 144 144 157.208 306.376 Ngi/6'i: Bdo too Idi chinh nam 2015- 2019 cua PJTACO vd long hop tilth lodil cua Idc gia Bang 5. Chenh lech thanh khoan thuan va kha nang thanh toan
STT 1 2 3 4 5
Chi tieu Don vi H I Trieu dOng H2 LSn H3 LSn H4 L i n H5 Lan
Nam 2015 Nam (59.834) 1.81 3,97 1,17 2,13
2016 Nam 2017 Nam 2018 Nam 2019 (17.852) (135 650) (100.246) (280 161) 2,13
4,20 1,56 2,43
2,00 5,69 0,86 2,44
2,26 5.12 0,78 3,07
1,67 0,49 0,29 2,72 Ngudn. Bdo cdo tdi chinh nam 2015- 2019 cua PJTACO vd long hop linh loan cua tdc gid
dan ap lye thanh toan ngan ban la rat cao.
Nau khdng cd bien phap khac phuc trong thdi gian tdi, PITACO co tha ddi mat vdi riii ro mat kha nang thanh toan.
3.3. Nhgn xet vd dexudt
Thir nhdt. PJTACO chua xac dinh dugc gia tri hgp ly cua Tai san tai chinh va N o phai tra tai chinh tai ngay ket thiic nam tai chinh 2018 do Thdng tu s6 210/2009/TT- BTC ngay 06/11/2009 cua Bg Tai chinh cung nhu cac quy dinh hien hanh chua cd hudng dSn cy tha ve viec xac dinh gia tri hgp ly cua cac tai san tai chinh va ng phai tra tai chinh (Bg Tai chinh, 2009).
Thong tu sd 210/2009/TT-BTC yau edu ap dyng Chuan myc Bao cao tai chinh Qudc ta vh viec trinh bay bao cao tai chinh va thuyat minh thdng tin ddi vdi cdng cy tai chinh nhung chua dua ra hudng dan tucmg duang cho viec danh gia va ghi nhan cong
cu tai chinh bao gom ca vice ap dyng gia trj hgp ly nham phii hgp vdi Chuan myc Bao cao tai chinh Quoc ta.
Thir hai, gia trj hgp ly cua cac tai san tai chinh va ng phai tra tai chinh dugc phan anh theo gia tri ma cdng cy tai chinh co the dugc chuyan ddi trong mot giao dich hien tai giiia cac ban cd day du hiau biat va mong mudn giao dich. Phuang phap va gia dinh dugc PJTACO sir dung da udc tinh gia trj hgp ly: Tian mat, tian gui ngan hang, cac khoan phai thu khach hang, phai tra ngudi ban va ng phai tra ngSn han khac phan Idn xap xi vdi gia tri ghi s6 do ky ban ngan ban ciia nhirng cong cu nay. Gia tri hgp ly ciia cac chimg khoan niam yat dugc xac dinh tran ca sd gia giao dich tran thi hordng chung khoan. Cac chung khoan khdng cd gia tham khao tir cac ngudn tin cay thi gia tri hgp ly dugc lay theo gia tri ghi sd. Tuy nhian, gia tri hgp ly cua cac
6 2 Tap chf Khoa hoc & Dao tao Ngan hang- So 215- Thang 4 2020
LEVAN LUYEN - VO THI HAU
khoan vay cd lai suat cd djnh hoac tha ndi PJTACO khdng xac dinh dugc do khdng cd du thdng tin de ap dyng cac md hinh dinh gia phii hgp.
Thu- ba, riii ro thanh khoan la nii ro PJTACO gap khd khan trong viec dap ling cac nghTa vu tai chinh do thieu vdn. Rui ro thanh khoan ciia PJTACO phat sinh chu yau do khdng tuong xiing trong cac ky ban cua tai san tai chinh va cac khoan phai tra tai chinh, do dd PJTACO cSn giam sat riii ro thanh khoan bang viec duy tri ty le tian mat va cac khoan tuong duang tien d muc ma Ban Diau hanh cho la dii de hd trg tai chinh cho cac boat dgng kinh doanh ciia PJTACO va de giam thieu anh hudng ciia nhUng thay ddi cac ludng tian.
Kat qua nghian ciru nay phii hgp vdi nghien cii'u ve riii ro tai chinh ciia Vii Thi Hau (2013), Fu Gang & Liu Dan (2012), Amalendu Bhunia & Somnath Mukhuti (2012), Ann-Katrin Napp (2011)... Diau dd CO nghTa la, neu he sd tu tai trg thap hay he sd ng cao se lam tang ap luc thanh toan cac khoan ng dan han, dac biet la ng
ngan ban, dong thdi cd tha anh hudng dan boat ddng kinh doanh khac cua PJTACO.
Trong trudng hgp duy tri co cau ngudn von khdng hgp ly, PJTACO co nguy co ddi mat vdi rui ro thanh khoan.
4. Kat luan
Ket qua nghian cuu sir dyng thang do nhan dang riii ro thanh khoan cho thay trong giai doan 2015- 2019, PJTACO dang ddi mat vdi riii ro thanh khoan d miic cao, vay ng ngan han nhieu, lugng hang tdn kho Idn anh hudng den kha nang thanh toan cac khoan ng ngan ban, dac biet trong giai doan 2017- 2019. De gdp phan phong ngira, ban cha nii ro thanh khoan trong thdi gian tdi, PJTACO can xac dinh gia trj hgp ly ciia tai san tai chinh va ng phai tra tai chinh; ap dung cac md hinh djnh gia phii hgp da xac djnh gia tri hgp ly cua cac khoan vay cd lai suat cd dinh hoac tha ndi; duy tri ty le tien mat va cac khoan tuong duong tian d miirc ma Ban Dieu hanh cho la du da ho trg tai chinh cho cac hoat dgng kinh doanh ciia PJTACO va de giam thiau anh hudng ciia nhirng thay doi cac ludng tian. • Tai lieu tham khao
I Ann-Kalrin Napp. 2011 Financial management in SME- the ute of financial analysis for identifying analysing and monnoring internal financial risks Aarhtis School of Business. Aarhiis Univer^it}' pp 1-66.
2. Amalendu Bhunia. Somnath Mukhuti. 2012. Financial risk meamrement of small and medium - sized companies listed in Bombay stack exchange, InlematianI Joumal of advances in management and economics, pp I -8
3. Bo Tdi chinh, 2002. Quyit dinh so I65/2002/QD-BTC. ngay 31/12/2002 V/v •'Ban hdnh vd cdng bo sdu (06) chuan muc ke todn Viel Nam " (dat 2).
4 Bo Tdi chinh, 2009 Thong lu.^6 210/2009/TT-BTC. ngay 06/11/2009 -Huang dan dp dung chudn muc ke todn qudc te ve trinh bay bdo cdo Idi chinh vd thuyet minh thong tin ddi vdi cdng cii tdi chinh "
5 Cdng ry cdphan Vdn tdi Xang dau Dicdng thiiy Petrolimex (2016. 2017. 2018. 2019. 2020/ Bdo cdo lai chinh hop nhdt cho nam tdi chinh ket thiic ngay 31/12 hang nam da dirac hem todn.
6. Congty cd phdn Vdn tdi Xang ddu Dudng thuy Petrolimex (PJTACO), 2008. Bdn cdo bach 7 Fu Gang, Liu Dan. 2012. Research on Ihe Influence Factors oj Financial Risk for Small and Medium- sized Enterprise - An Empirical Analysis from 216 Companies of Small Plates. ShenZhen Slock Exchange. China Journal of Conlempoiary Research In Business. January 2012, Vol 3. No 9
8. John B Caouette, Edward 1 Ahman, Paul Narayanan. 1998 Managing Credit Risk The next Great Financial Challenge. Published by John Wiley & Sons, pp.112-122
9 Vii Thi Hau, 2013. Nghien cim rui ro idi chinh lai cdc doanh nghiep cong nghiep Viet Nam. Ludn dn Tien si kmh le Dai hoc Bdch khoa Hd Ndi Thdnh phd Hd NQI.
10. Website cua Sa Giao dich Chirng khodn Thdnh pho Ho Chi Mmh tai dia chi https //www hsx. vn
So 215- Thang 4. 2020- Tap chf Khoa hoc & Dao tao Ngan hang 6 3
