TAC DONG CUA DONG TIEN DEN HIEU i^i^/- KINH DOANH CUA CAC CONG TY NIEM YET
TREN s d GIAO DICH CHUiNG KHOAN THANH P H 6 H O CHI MINH
Nguyen Hihi Anh Tru&ng Dgi hoc Kinh ti Quoc ddn
Email: [email protected] Ngay nhan-24/3/2020
Ngay nhan ban sua, 28/4/2020 Ngay duyet dang: 05/5/2020
Tom tat:
Bdi viit ndy nghien cuu dnh hu&ng cua cdc ddng tiin thu vdo vd dong tiin chi ra cho timg hogt dgng trong doanh nghiep l&i hiiu qud kinh doanh cua 287 cong typhi tdi chinh niim yit tren S& giao dich chirng khodn Ho Chi Minh (HOSE) trong giai dogn tic ndm 2009 den ndm 2018 Bdi viit dd dp dung phuong phdp hdi quy mo hinh dnh hu&ng ngdu nhien (REM), mo hinh dnh huang CO dinh (FEM). vd cuoi ciing mo hinh hieu chinh (AM) duac sti- dung di thdo ludn kit qud thiec nghiim. Nghiin cdu chi ra rdng: luu chuyen tiin thudn tir hogt dgng kinh doanh, tiin thu vdo vd tiin chi cho hogt dgng ddu tu vd hogt dong tdi ehinh co dnh hu&ng ciing chieu vai ty suat sinh lai cua tdi sdn (ROA), ty sudt sinh lgi cua von chu s& hiru (ROE). Ngodi ra, don bdy tdi chinh cd dnh hu&ng nguac chieu t&i ROA, ROE vd ldi trin co phiiu (EPS) trong khi quy md cdng ty khdng co dnh huang tdi ROA, ROE nhimg co dnh hu&ng cung chiiu v&i EPS Til- khoa: dong tien, boat dgng kinh doanh, boat dong dau tu, hoat dgng tai chinh, sinh Igi.
MaJEL:G31,M41,M48.
The impact of cash flows on firm's performance of listed companies on Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange
Abstract:
This research investigates the effect of cash inflows and cash outflows from operating, investing and financing activities on firm performance of 287 non-financial listed companies on the Ho Chi Minh StockExchange (HOSE) during period from 2009 to 2018. The random effects model (REM), fixed effects model (FEM) and adjusted model (AM) were deployed to analyze data.
The results show that net cashflows from operating activities, cash receipts and payments from investing and financing activities have positive effects on return on assets (ROA) return on equity (ROE) and earnings per share (EPS). In addition, financial leverage negatively affects ROA, ROE and EPS while company size has not shown statistically significant impact on ROA ROE but has positively impact on EPS
Keywords. Cashflows, operating activities, invcslingacllnnes.financingacliv.lies profitability JELcode:G3hM41,M48.
'• • " " ' " " ^ " f . * ' ! '"'^^^ "=- " » ^ - ta, chinh ma con phu Bao cao tai chinh la buc tranb phan anb khai quat thugc vao each thirc khai ihnn .u- .
'-"dC tnono tin ciia r a r rtni tinh hinh tai chinh, ket qua boat dgng kinh doanh, tugng sir dung bao cao tai chinh p- • dong tien vao ra ciia doanh ngbiep tai mot thai diem cbinli luon co moi lien he rnat th'" - ^*^ ^^*^ ^^' va n-ong mot thai ky lap bao cao. Tinh hihi ich ciia pban tich bao cao tin chinh A 1°^ -^ ™ **' thong tin tren bao cao tai chinh khong chi phu thugc thong tin lai dl dua ra cac nhan d" b ^- ^^^ ^ ^ ^^^
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\j."i:z~z'-'-' '-•-i"-:-*'^-'-^' rn I:., .,i„j cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam dang cong bo thi bao cao liru chuydn tien te cung cap thong tin ve luong tien tai doanii nghiep va ngay cang chiem vi tri quan trpng (Nguyen HQ-u Anh & Nguyen Thanh Hieu, 2014). Dac biet trong bdi canh hien nay, khi ma nhieu doanh nghiep bao cao Iai nhung vSn mat kha nang thanb toan do thi^u ti^n mat de chi tra cac khoan ng- den han. Nha dSu tu can quan tam hon toi cac cau phan ciia bao cao luu chuyen tien te: tien thu vao cita boat dong va tign chi ra cho hoat dong ciing nhu anb huang cua hoat dgng thu, chi tien nay toi hieu qua hoat dgng kinh doanh ra sao. D^y la dieu rat quan tiong nhung hien tai chua co nhieu nghien ciiu chi ra bang chinig thuc nghiem ve moi lien he giira cac thanh phan dong ti^n va hieu qua boat dgng kinh doanh.
Cac nghien cuu da thuc hien tai nay ve van de nay chua thong nhat dugc chieu anh hirong ciia dong tien toi ket qua boat dgng kinh doanh va pham vi nghien cim cbi giai han trong mot nganh nghg cu the ma chua mang tinh bao quat. Konak (2018) chi ra rang dong tien tir hoat dgng kmh daanh co anh hudng ciing chieu den ROA, nhimg dong tien tir hoat dgng dau tu va boat dgng tai cbinh lai co anh huong ngugc chieu Ien ROA; con nghien ciru cua Nwakaego & cgng su (2015) cho rang dong tien tir hoat dgng kinh doanh va hoat dgng tai chinb co anh huong thuan chieu den ROA nhung dong tien tir hoat dgng dau tu co anh buong ngugc chieu tai ROA. Ngoai ra, cac nghien cim chi de cap den mgt nganh cu the: nghien cuu cua Nwakaego & cgng sy (2015) tai cac cong ty thirc pham va do uong a Nigeria; nghien ciru cua Konak (2018) tai nganh cong nghiep; nghien ciru ciia Ogbeide & Akanji (2017) trong nganh bao hiem. Cac nghien cim tren quy mo Ion, bao triim nhieu lmh vu'c kmh doanii con kha khiem ton.
Do vay, nghien cuu anh buong ciia cac thanh phan thong tin ciia dong tien tren bao cao Iim chuyen tien te anh hudng tai hieu qua boat dgng kinb doanh cua doanh nghiep niem yet tai Viet Nam co y nghia ca ve mat Iy luan va thirc tien khi hau het cac nghien cim duoc thuc hien o nuac ngoai la chit yeu, a Viet Nam van de nay chua dirge nghien ciru mgt each loan dien va co he thong trong nhirng nam gan day.
Ket cau bai viet gom 5 pban; Sau pban giai tiiieu, tec gia se trinh bay tong quan nghien cim a phan 2, gidi thieu phuang phap nghien cim a phan 3, ket qua
ngbien ciiu thirc nghiem dugc ninh bay trong ph&i 4, cuoi cimg tiiao luan ket qua va khuyen nghi dugc hinh bay 0 phan 5.
2. T6ng quan nghien cii'u
Cac nghien cim ve dong tien, m6i quan he giua dong tien va hieu qua hoat dgng kinh doanh o cac boi canh nghien cim khac nhau va thai gian nghien cini kliac nhau da co sir kg thira va b6 sung cho nliau 6 phuang phap nghien cuu va ca ket qua ngbien ciiu.
Cac ket qua ngbien cuu chii ySu trong nhiing nam gan day nhu sau:
Nguyen Hiru Anh & Nguyin Thanh Higu (2015) da thuc bien mgt nghign cuu thuc nghiem dg du bao dong tien tir hoat dgng kinh doanli cbo cac cong ty phi tai chinh niem ygt tren So Giao dich chirng khoan Thanh pho Ho Chi Minh vdi bo du lieu nghien cim bao gom 276 cong ty niem ygt trong giai doan tir nam 2007 - 2014. Ket qua nghien cuu chi ra rang mo hinh du bao dong tign tii' hoat dgng kinh doanh tign CO so Igi nhuan co kha nang dir bao tot hon mo hinb tren co so dong tign qua kbu Tuy nhign, nghien ciru nay chi gioi han d dong tign tir hoat dgng kinh doanii ma chua tirdi den dong tign tir boat dgng dau tu' hay hoat dgng tai chinh. Ngoai ra, nghign ciru nay tap trung vao tac dgng ciia lgi nliuan toi dong tien tir hoat dgng kinb doanh ma chua nghign ciru tac dgng cua ngugc Iai ciia dong tign tir hoat dgng kinh doanh toi cac chi tieu khac the hien bieu qua hoat dgng kinh doanh (ngoai lgi nhuan) nhu ROA, ROE, EPS.
Frank & James (2014) da nghien cim moi quan he giua dong tien tu' boat dgng kinh doanh, hoat dgng dau tu, boat dgng tai chinh vai Igi nhuan tren tong tai san (ROTA) voi bg dij beu dugc lay tir bao cao tai cbinb nam ciia 6 cong ty thuc pham va do uong dugc niem yet tai So giao djch chung khoan Nigeria giai doan 2007 - 2011. Ket qua nghien cuu cho thay CO ton tai mgt moi quan he ngugc chieu giiia dong tign tir boat dgng dau tir va ROTA nhung moi quan he giira dong ticn tir hoat dgng kirdi doanh va dong tign til' boat dgng tai chinli voi ROTA la ciing cbieu.
Gheshlaghi & cgng su (2014) da nghien cu'u anh hucmg ciia cac thanb phan dong tien tren bao cao Imi chuyen tien tg toi bieu qua kinh doanh (do luong b^ng ROA) ciia 138 cong ty niem ygt trgn San giao dich chung klioan Tehran cho giai doan 5 nam tir nam 2008 tai nam 2012. Cac bien dgc lap bao gom:
dong tign tir boat dgng kinb doanh, tien mat thu dugc ttr cho vay kgt hgp voi tien mat dimg de chi Iai
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kiiilileiliiitlrk'n
n-a \ ay. tien mat dimg dg thanh toan thue thu nhap, dong tign tir hoat dgng dau m va dong tien tir boat dgng tai chinh. Kgt qua nghien ciiu cho thay co moi quan he nghich giiia hieu qua kinli doanh vdi: dong tign thu tir cho vay kgt hgp voi dong tien chi tra Iai tra vay; tign mat da chi thanh toan thue thu nhap va dong tien tir hoat dgng dau tu. Ngoai ra. cac tac gia khong tim th^y m6i quan he giua hieu qua boat dgng kinh doanh vdi dong tien tir boat dgng kinli doanh va boat dgng tai cbinh. Ket qua nghien ciru ciing cbo tb5y quy mo doanb nghiep co tac dgng tich cue den bieu qua kinh doanh trong khi t>' Ie tong ng tren tong tai san co tac dgng ngugc chieu dgn kgt qua kinli doanh. Dieu do cho thSy rSng, cac cong ty niem ygt ciia Iran co ty Ie ng cao haat dgng khong bieu qua.
Nwakaego & cgng su (2015) xem xet anli huo-ng ciia dong tien den hieu qua hoat dgng ciia cac cong ty trong nganh thuc pham va do uong ciia Nigena vai m^u nghien cim gom 6 cong ty cua dugc nigm ygt tai So giao dich chimg khoan Nigeria DQ- lieu duoc lay til' cac bao cao va tai khoan hang nam cua cac cong ty. Cac dij lieu dugc phan tich bang ky thuat hoi quy bgi. Ket qua ngbien cim cho thay rang: dong tign hoat dgng kinh doanh va dong tign tir hoat dgng tai chinh co tac dgng tich cue dang ke den bieu qua boat dgng kinh doanb cua doanii nghiep trong lmh vuc thuc pham va do uong o Nigeria. Ngoai ra, kgt qua ngbien cuu cung chi ra rang dong tign tir boat dgng dau tu co moi quan he ngugc chigu toi bieu qua boat dgng cua cong ty. Cac tac gia nghien ciru khuygn nghj rang cac kigm toan vign c^n sir dung cac ty Ie dong tien trong viec danh gia hieu qua hoat dgng ciia cong ty truoc kbi dua ra y kien lign quan toi tinli dgc lap ve tai cbinb ciia cong ty. Ben canb do. thong tin dong tien cung la thong tm giup cac nba dau tir dau tu ra quyet dinb hgp Iy.
Liman & Mohammed (2018) khao sat tac dgng ciia dong tign boat dgng kinh doanh den bieu qua tai cbinh cua cac cong ty Tap doan niem ygt 6 Nigeria trong khoang thoi gian 10 nam (2005 dgn 2014) sir dung dii lieu thii cap dugc tbu thap tir Bao cao tai chinli va tai khoan hang nam ciia cac cong ty. Dir lieu duoc phan tich bang thong ke mo ta, phan tich tuang quan ciing nhu cac ky thuat hoi quy dg xac dmh su thav doi trong hieu qua tai chinb do su thay doi trong dong tien boat dgng. Mgt ky thuat hoi quy dir lieu bang OLS va REM da dugc ap dung de uoc lugng cac mo binh nghien cim. Kgt qua cho thay tac dgng tich cue va khong dang ke gitra dong tien
tiJ hoat dgng kinh doanh va K U A . IUJ — ^ gia da chi ra tac dgng tich cue va co y "gl'"^ ^ J' kg giira dong tign tir boat dgng kinh doanh va Bien kigm soat: Quy mo cong ty co anh hudng cung chigu ROA, don biy tai chinh c6 anh huong ngugc chigu voi ROA. Trai lai, ca quy mo cong ty va don bay tai chinh dgu co anb huong ciing chieu vm ROE nhung quan he nay it co y ngbia tii6ng ke. Nghign cijru khuyen ngbi rSng cac Tap doan niem yet o Nigeria khong ngn phu thugc nbieu vao don bay tai cbinb vi don bSy sii dung qua miic co tac dgng tieu circ den hieu qua tai chinh va tang nguy co pha san.
Cac cong ty nay ngn tiiiet lap mgt cbinh sach dg giu chl phi pha san 6 mirc tbSp bon va ciing can quan Iy hieu qua cbi phi de tang bieu qua tai chi'nh.
Ni & cgng sir (2019) da nghien cihi tac dgng ciia dong tign den gia tri doanh ngbiep do luong bang Tobui'Q ciia cac cong ty nigm yet tign thi truong chung khoan Dai Loan trong giai doan 2005 - 2014.
Cac ty suat tai cbinb sir dung dira tren dong tign tir boat dgng kinh doanh, hoat dgng dau tu, hoat dgng tai chinb dugc dua vao mo hinh dg kiem tia anh huong cua cac ygu to nay den gia tri doanh nghiep. Ket qua nghign ciru trgn mau 7598 quan sat cua cong ty cho thay dong tien chi ra cho hoat dgng kinb doanh, dong tien thu vao bi boat dgng tai chinh va dong tien chi ra cho hoat dgng dau tir co tac dgng tich cue den gia tri doanh nghiep. Kgt qua ciia nghien cim nay rat thii vi vi tac dgng cua dong tign den gia tit doanh nghiep it duoc thao luan va nguoi ta thuang cbo rang dong tien tir hoat dgng kinb daanh dugc coi la CO anh huang tot dgn gia tri doanh nghiep. Tuy nhien, bang chimg thuc nghiem trong nghign cim nay cho th4y kgt qua boan toan trai ngugc. Dong tien tir boat dgng kmh doanii co tac dgng ngugc Iai den gia tri ciia cac doanh nghiep nigm ygt tren thj tmong chiing khoan Dai Loan.
Sau khi tong quan cac nghien ciiu, bai vigt rut ra mgt so khoang trgng nghign ciru nliu sau:
TVH-r nhdt. hau hit cac nghien cuu sir duna thuoc do b.eu qua kmh doanh thong qua haacc^hi tieu
„i,„3„ , - J ._ {«.0\) hoac chi lieu loi nliuan tren von chu so htm (ROEi rati, i - •' ket hop ca hatch, ueu ROA va ROE ' - ' " / chi tieu Lai tren c6 phiiu (EPS) Vr ' "
anh hucmg ciia dong tijn tm a6n' ' ' ' ' "^'"°
phan anh hieu qua kmh doanh nhi, R n T E R S c h ^ c c h . n s e c „ n g c 4 p , h * t ' ° ^ ' R 0 E v a
s TO tipn ven hon en cuu '8 ttoi cac chi tieu
S6 275 thing 5/2020
Hinh 1: Mo hinh nghien ciiu
cho cac doi hrgng quan tam.
Thii-hai, cac nghien cim da thuc hien hau nhu cbi nghien ciiu anh hudng cua dong tien thuan tir hoat dong kinh doanh, hoat dgng dau tu, hoat dgng tai chinh toi hieu qua kinh doanh ma rat hiem khi phan tach cac thanh phan dong tien thu vao va chi ra of tiing hoat dgng dg dira ra nhan dinli xac thuc hon ve anh hubng ciia dong tign toi hteu qua kinh daanh bai Ie khi su dung thong tin ddng tien thuan thi cbiing ta da triet tigu anh huang cua so tign thu vao va so tien chl ra tdi hieu qua hoat dgng kinh doanh.
Thir ba. tong quan nghien ciiu chi ra rang hau het cac nghien cuu dugc thuc bien o nbieu nuoc trgn the giai nhu nghien ciiu ciia Ni & cgng sir (2019) 6 Dai Loan, nghien ciiu cua Liman & Mohammed (2018) d Nigeria nhmig nghien cim a Viet nam con rat ban che, dac biet tiong nhirng nam gan day.
3. Phuong phap nghien cii'u
3.1. Mo hinh vd gid thuyet nghien ciru Nhu phan tong quan da rut ra nhan xet, de bd sung them bdng clnhig thuc nghiem vi dnh hirong cua dong tiin t&i hieu qud hogt dgng kinh doanh, nghiin eiru ndy sir dung ROA, ROE va EPS do Itr&ng hieu qud kinh doanh nliu mgt so nghien cim da sii' dung (Nguyen Thanb Higu & Nguygn Thiiy Huong, 2018). Ddng tiin duac sic dung trong nghiin cini ndy la cdc thdnh phdn ciia dong tiin: Luu chuyen tign thuan tir hoat dgng kinh doanh (CFO), Dong tign thu vao cua hoat dgng dau tu (CFI-in), dong tign chi ra cho hoat dgng ddu tu (CFl-out), Dong tien thu vdo ciia hogt dgng tdi chinh (CFF-in), Dong tien chi ra cho boat dgng tai chinh (CFF-out). Mo hinb nghien cim dirge mo ta a Hinh 1.
Mo hinh ROA:
ROA^,= ttg + a,CFO,,+ a,CFIin , + S'^FFi",. + a.CFIout, + a.CFFout, -i- a.LEV+ n-SIZE+ £,, (1) Bang 1: Mo ta mkn nghign ciiu theo nganh
Nganh Cong nghiep Dtrgc pham va Y te Dich vu Tieu dimg Hang Tieu dung Nguyen vat lieu Tien ich Cong dong
Tong cong Nguon: Tde gid long
So 275 thing 5/2020 hop.
Solyong doanh nghiep
105 14 26 64 50 28 287
51
Ty trong (%) 36,58
4,87 9,09 22,29 17.42 9,75 100%
kinli Id'liiillriPii
Md hinh ROE:
ROE,, = P„ + P,CFOj,- P.CFIin , + p^CFFin ,+
p^CFIout,, + prFFout,,'- p, LEV + p, SIZE+ f , (2) Mo binh EPS.
EPS^, = £„ + £,CFO,,+ £,CFIin^ + £,CFFin,+
£^CFOout,,+fjCFFout, [ V £^LEV + £, SI2E+ £ , (3) Can cii vao tdng quan nghign ciiu, tac gia dl xuat cac gia thuygt nghign ciiu nhu sau:
Gid thuyit 1: Luu chuyen tign thuan tir hoat dgng kinh doanh, dong tien tbu vao tir boat dgng dau tu, dong tien chi ra cho hoat dgng dau tu, dong tien thu vao tir hoat dgng tai chinh va dong tien cbi ra cho hoat dgng tai chinh c6 anh huang cimg chigu toi ROA cua cac cong ty nigm yet tren HOSE.
Gid thuyit 2: Luu chuyen tien thuan tir hoat dgng kinh doanh, dong tign thu vao tir hoat dgng dau tu, dong tign chi ra cho boat dong dau tu, dong tign tbu
vao tir hoat dgng tai chmh va dong u^^ — ^ hoat dgng tai chinh cd anh hucmg cimg chieu tat ROE ciia cac cong ty niem yet tren HOSE-
Gid thuyet 3: Luu chuygn tiln tiiuSn tir hoat dgng kinh doanh, dong tiln thu vao tir boat dgng dau tii, dong tiln chi ra cho boat dgng dSu tu, dong tign thu vao til' hoat dgng tai chinh va dong tien chi ra cho hoat dgng tai chinb c6 anb huong cimg chieu toi EPS ciia cac cong ty nigm yet tien HOSE.
3.2. Dir lieu nghien cieu
Dir lieu nghien cuu dugc thu thap tir bao cao tai chinh cua 287 cong ty phi tai chinh niem ygt tren HOSE trong 10 nam tir nam 2009 din nam 2018, Cac cong ty dugc chia theo nganh nhu trinh bay tai Bang 1.
Cac bign va each do luong gia tri cac bien trong mo birdi nghign cuu dugc mo ta a Bang 2.
Bang 2: Do luong cac bien trong m6 hinh Phu'O'ng phap do luoTig Lgi nhuan sau thueA/on chii so hiiu Lgi nhuan sau thue/ Tong tai san
(Lgi nhuan sau thug - Co nic ciia co phieu mi dai)/s6 lugng c6 philu pho thong luu hanh binh quan nam
Lmi chuyen tien thuan tir hoat dgng kinh doanh a Ma s6 20 tren Bao cao luu chuyin tiln te theo Ulxi B03-DN, ban hanh tbeo quy dinh ciia Bg Tai Chinb (2014).
Gia tri tiln thu vao o hoat dgng d k tu a Ma s6 22 + 24 + 26 + 27 tren Bao cao luu chuyin tiln te theo Ulu B03-DN, ban hanh tbeo quy dinh cua Bg Tai Chinh (2014).
Gia uj tilu chi ra cho boat dong d^u tir, a Ma s6 21 + 23 -h 25 trgn Bao cao luu chuyin tiln te theo Mlu B03-DN. ban hanh theo quy dinh ciia Bg Tai Chinh (2014)
Qia h-itiSn thu vao c,hoa,dong.6Mas631+33trenBaocao luu ChuySn tien^^^theo M™ B03-DN, han hanh theo ,uy dinh cua Bo Tai ChiUl Oia in ti6n chi ra cho hoat dong o ma s6 32 + M + 1^ j i^
im. chuyen tiSn te theo M5u B03-DN, ban hanh 11 """ "*" '*"
Tai Chinh (20.4). " " ' ^ ' ' ' h ™ quy dinh cda Bo Tong ng phai tra/T6ng tai san
Ln (Tong tai san) ROE
ROA EPS CFO
CFIin
C Flout
CFFin
CFFout
LEV
Ty suat sinh lgi tren VCSH Ty suat sinh lgi tren tong tai san Lai tren co phieu Luu chuyen tien thuan tir hoat dong kinh doanii Dong tien thu \'ao tit boat dgng dan ur Dong tien chi ra cho boat dong dau tu
Dong tien thu vao tir hoat dgng tai cbinli Dong tien cbi ra cho hoat dgng tin cbinh Don bay tai chinh SIZE Quy mo cong ty Nguon. Tde gid nghien ciru. long hg-p.
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Ten biln
Bang 3: Th6ng ke niQ ta dij lieu Trung binh
ROA ROE EPS LEV ITS SIZE CFIin CFlout CFFin CFFout CFO
0,072 0,139 3.065,380
0,238 3.450.000.000.000
27,766 420.000.000.000 -671.000.000.000 1.550.000.000.000 -1.520.000.000.000 231.000.000 000 Nguon: Kel qud xd ly dii- Ilea cda ldc gid.
4. Ket qua nghign ctiu 4.1. Tbdng lie md td
K^t qua thong ke rao ta o Bang 3 cho th§y. cac cong ty phi tai chinh niem yet tren HOSE trong giat doan nghien cuu (2009 - 2018) CO gta tri trung binh cia ROA li 7,2%, ROE la 13,9%, EPS la 3.065 d6ng/c6 phieu, ty le ng chiSm 23,8% t6ng gia tri tai san, tong tai san binh quan la 3.450 ty VND. D6ng thoi, trung hinh gia tri tien thu vao tir hoat dgng diiu hr la 420 ty VND, chi ra cho hoat dgng dhu tu la 671 ty VND, gia tri dong tign thu vao rir hoat dong tai chinh la 1.550 ty VND, chi ra cho hoat dgng tai chinh la 1.520 ty VND, luu chuyen tign thuan tit hoat dong kinh doanh la 2.310 ty VND.
4.2. Ma trdn tittfng quan gida die biin Ket qua phan tich tuong quan g Bang 4 c6 thg nhan thay cac bign dgc lap trong mo hinh CFO, CFIin, CFlout, CFFin, CFFout, LEV, SIZE co mdi lien he chat che vgi bign phti thuoc trong trio hinh
Gia tri nhd nhSt -0,625 -1,687 -11.900 0.000 997.000.000
20,720 -766.000.000.000 -122.000.000.000 -1.560.000 572.000.000.000 -4.930.000.000.000
Gia tri ldn nhat 0,743 3,276 990 000
0,880 102.000.000.000.000
32,254 103.000.000.000.000
573.000.000.000 69.600.000.000.000
68.200.000.000 18.000.000.000.000 (ROA, ROE, EPS). Qua Bang 4 co thg thiy CFO CO quan he cung chigu vol ROA, ROE va EPS (thg hien g he sg mong quan giira CFO va ROA, ROE, EPS ijn lugt la 0,402; 0,22 va 0,171). Ve chigu ciia m6i quan he giiia CFI va CFF vgi ROA, ROE, EPS se dugc trinh bay cu thg a phSn kgt qua hdi quy a Muc 4.3.
4.3. Ket qud hdi quy
4 3.1. Kel qud hdi quy mo hinh ROA Truge hgt, tac gia kigm dinh de lua chgn mo hinh REM hay FEM la pliu hgp. Tac gia da diing kigm dinh Hausman va da cho gia tri p-value cda kiem dinh Hausman < 0.00 (xem Bang 5), nhu vay khgng dinh mo hinh FEM phu hgp hgn md hinh REM. Tigp do, tac gia da thirc hien cac kiem dinh dg dam bao mo hinh FEM man thu cac gia thiet hoi quy. Ket qua kigm dinh tu mong quan (Autocorrelation) vdi gia thigt Ho. md hinh khdng co ttr tugng quan, H! • mg hinh c6 tu tugng quan, gia tri p-value thu dugc = Bang 4: Ma tran tu'o'ng quan giua eac bien
ROA ROE EPS CFO CFIin CFlout CFFin CFFout LEV
ROA ROE EPS CFO CFIm CFlout CFFin CFFout LEV SIZE
1 0,764*
0,518*
0,402*
0,305*
-0,319*
-0,212*
0,152*
-0,434*
-0,109*
I 0,630*
0,220*
0,144*
-0,163*
-0,046*
0,024 -0,183*
-0,002 1 0,171*
0,132*
-0,141*
-0,047*
0,024 -0,168*
0,020 1 0,103*
-0,170*
-0,211*
0,059*
-0,263*
-0,061*
1 -0,925*
-0,084*
0,049*
-0,163*
-0,054*
1 0,091*
-0,100*
0,129*
0,026 1 -0,971*
0.503*
0,032 1 -0,442* 1 -0,014 0,330"
laon: Ket qud xi'r ly dCr lieu cua ldc gid.
So 275 thdng 5/2020
liiiililcJ'lial Irien
Bang 5: K6t qua hdi quy mo hinh ROA
REM Mo hinhJlillLElU!!^
CFO CFIin CFlout CFFin CFFout LEV SIZE Constant Observations Number of i Hausman test Autocorrelation Heteroskedasticity
0,0695***
0,0481***
0,0329**
0,0707***
0,0762***
-0,150***
-0,00511**
0,261***
2.591 287 0,9370 0.000
0,107***
0,0512**
0,0203 0,0639**
0,0656**
-0,159**' -0,00136 0,151***
2.591 287 0.000
0,0695**
0,0481**' 0,0329**' 0,0707**^
0,0762**' -0,150***
-0,00511 0,261 2.591 287
Ghi chu: ***p<O01. **p<0.05. *p<0 1 Nguon: Ket qud xif ly du liiu ciia ldc gid.
0,937 do do chap nhan Ho ngn khang dinli rao hinb kliong CO tu tuang quan. Kgt qua kigm dinh phuang sai sai so tbay doi (Heteroskedasticity) vai gia thigt Ho: phuang sai dong dgu, HI; phuong sai thay doi CO gia tri p-value thu duoc la 0.000 dieu do c6 nghia bac bo Ho nen cho biet mo hinh dang co khuyet tat do phuong sai sat so thay doi. Nhu vay, mo binh FEM da gap phai khuyet tat phuang sai sai s6 thay doi. Theo nghien ciiu cua DriscoII & Kraay (1998), de khac phuc khuyet tat da phat hien ciia mo hlnli FEM, tac gia da sir dung mo hinh hieu chinh va kit qua tong hgp dugc trinh bay o Bang 5.
Kgt qua hoi quy mo hinh ROA 6 Bang 5 cho thSy:
CFO CO anil huang ciing chilu vai ROA (he s6 b6i
quy thu dugc la 0,0695). Dong thai, ca dong tign thu vao tir hoat dgng dau tu va dong tien chi ra cho hoat dgng dau tu deu co anh hudng cung chigu vdi ROA (h6i quy thu dugc la 0,0481 va 0,0329). Nhu vay, cac doanh nghiep cbi tien dau ttr ra bgn ngoai va chi tien de mua sam tai san co dinh nbieu se anh huong tich circ tai kgt qua kinb daanh (ROA). D6ng thai, cac cong ty co nguon thu lai tir boat dgng dau tu tdt ciing se co anh hirong tich cue tai kgt qua kinh doanh (ROA). Bgn canli do, dong tiln thu vao tii haat dgng tai chinb va dong tign chi ra cho boat dgng tai chmh deu CO anh hucmg cimg chigu vai ROA (h6i quy thu dugc la 0,0707 va 0,0762). Dilu nay c6 nghia la cac cong ty huy dgng dugc nhilu v6n vay hoac v6n bi Bang 6: Kit qua h6i quy mo hinh ROE
REM CEO
CFIin CFlout CFFin CFFout LEV SIZE Constant Observations Number ofi Hausman test Autocorrelation Heteroskedasticity
0,0996*' 0,0969*' 0,0696*
0,131**' 0,145**' -0,155*"
-0,0157- 0,633**
2.591 287 0.0000 0.000
0,206***
0,108***
0,0643*
0,155***
0,145***
-0,166**' 0,00345 0.0816 2.591 287 0.000
Mo hinh hieu chinh 0.0996**
0,0969***
0,0696***
0,131***
0,145*..
- 0 , 1 5 5 . . . -0,0157 0,633 2.591 287
Ghi did: '•**p<O.Ol. -"'p<0 05. *p<0.1 Ngudn: Kel qud xir ly dd lieu cda ldc gid
S6 275 thdng 5/2020
Bang 7: Kit quii hdi quy md hinh EPS
EPS REM Mo hinh hieu chinh
CFO CFIin CFlout CFFm CFFout LEV SIZE Constant Observations Number of i Hausman test Autocorrelation Heteroskedasticity
865,4 680,9 -441,8 -568,0 382,8 -1.319 -780,8*' 25.423*' 2.591 287 0.0000 0.000
2.689***
1.215 -29,43 620,8 786,6 -2,735***
-69,99 5.460*
2.591 287 0.000
5.640***
1.670 67,14 2.300**
1.724 -4.768***
340,7***
-5.991***
2.591 287
Ghichii: ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1 Ngudn: Kit qud xu ly dir lieu ciia tde gid.
phat hanh co phieu, trai phieu (dong tien tbu vao cua hoat dgng tai chinh) se co ca hgi kinh doanh va c6 anh huong tich cue tai hieu qua kmh doanb (ROA).
Dong thai, ket qua nghign ciiu cung chi ra rang: so tiln doanh nghiep chi ra de tra co bic hoac hoan tra von vay (tien chi ra cbo hoat dgng tai chinh) cang cao thi tai cac doanh nghiep nay ROA se cang caa.
4.3.2. Kit qud hdi quy md hinh ROE Tmdc khi phan tich kgt qua hoi quy, tac gia ciing thirc hien kiem dinh Iua chgn mo hinh va kigm tra lieu mo hinh co vi pham cac gia thuyet hoi quy (nhu tir tuong quan va phuang sai sai so thay doi...) nbu doi voi mo hinh ROA. Kgt qua ciing cho thay, viec sir dung mo hinh hieu chinh la phii hgp de trinh bay ket qua nghign ciru mo binb ROE.
Qua ket qua hoi quy thu dirge a Bang 6, CFO, CFIin, CFlout, CFFin va CFFout diu co anii birang ciing chieu tai ROE. Cac he so hoi quy tbu dugc tir mo hinh hieu chinh deu duang va nhan cac gia hi hrang img la 0,0996; 0,0969; 0,0696; 0,131 va 0,145. Dong thai, kgt qua ciing cbo thay LEV c6 anb hucmg ngugc chieu vai ROA va moi quan he nay CO y nghia thong kg. Trai Iai, quy mo cong ty SIZE khong thg hien co quan he vai ROA.
4.3.3 Kit qud hdi quy mo hinh EPS Ket qua kigm dinh Iua chgn REM hay FEM la phii hop (Hausman Test) cung cho thay mo hinb FEM la phil hgp (do p-value < 0 00). Tuy nhign, kit qua kiem dinh co hJ tuang quan va hien tirgng phuong sai sai so thay doi duoc khang dinh c6 xuat hien trong mo hinh FEM (do kigm djnh ve Autocorrelation co
p-value <000 va kiem dinh ve Heteroskedasticity co p-value < 0.000), vi vay, dg khac phuc cac khuyet tat nay, tac gia da sii' dung mo binh hieu chinb. Ket qua mo hinh hieu chinh a Bang 7 cbo thay CFO c6 quan he cung cbieu vai EPS (he so bfii quy thu dugc la 5.640). Trai lai, CFIin, CFlout, CFFout co quan he ciing chieu vol EPS (cac he so hoi quy thu dugc duong la 1,67; 67,14 va 1,724) nhung moi quan he nay it co y nghia thong ke a miic 10%. Dieu do c6 nghia la dong tien thu vao hay chi ra cho boat dgng dau tu va tiln chi ra dg tra co tire hay tra goc vay (cua hoat dgng tai chinh) khong co anb hucmg dang ke toi EPS (Iai trgn co phieu). Ngugc Iai, CFFin Iai CO anh huong tich cue va co y nghia toi EPS. Dong tien thu vao tir boat dong tai cbinh c6 anb huong thuan chilu vot EPS. Dieu nay cho thky, khi doanh nghiep huy dgng dugc von tir thi tiorcmg se co tac dgng tich cue toi Iai tren c6 philu. Them vao do, kit qua nghien ciru cung chi ra rang, don bay tai chlnh CO anh buong ngugc chilu voi EPS va quy mo cong ty CO anh huang ciing cbieu vai EPS.
5. Thao luan k^t qua va khuyin nghi 5. /. Thdo lugn kit qud nghien cuu 5.1.1. Ddi vdi mo hinh ROA
Kit qua nghien ciiii da chi ra rSng: CFO co anb buong tich cue toi ROA (he s6 hoi quy duong la 0,0695), kit qua nghien ciru nay thing nhit vai nghien ciru cua Frank & James (2014); Ogbeide
& Akanji (2017) va Konak (2018). Cac tac gia dgu phat hien ra rSng dong tiln tu hoat dgng kinb doanli CO anb huong tich cue din ROA. Dong thoi, bang
Sd 275 thdng 5/2020
kiiilitcitiiil trien
cbiing tir nghien ciiu nay cilng cho thay CFIin, CFlout. CFFin. CFFout diu co anh huong tich cue toi ROA (he s6 hdi quy duong la 0,0481; 0,0329;
0,0707 va 0,0762), kit qua nghien ciiu nay phii hgp voi kit qua nghien ciiu ciia Nwakaego & cong sir (2015) kbi cac tac gia da khang dinh dong tien thuan tir hoat dgng tai chinh co anh buong tich cue tdi ROA. Tuy nhien, theo Nwakaego & cgng sir (2015). dong tign thuSn tir boat dgng dau tu Iai anh huong ngirgc chilu vcri ROA. Su khac biet vg ket qua nghien cim co the da tac gia chi nghien cuu gia tri dong tien thuan tir hoat dgng ma khong ngbien ciiu rieng dong tien thu vao va dong tign chi ra cu thg cho rimg boat dgng nhu nghien ciiu nay. Vdi ket qua nghien cim nay, chiing ta khang dinli gia thuyet nghien cim thii nhat dugc chap nhan.
5.1.2. Doi vai md hinh ROE
Ket qua nglugn cuu chi ra rang CFO, CFIin, CFlout, CFFin, CFFout dgu co anli hudng tich cue tdi ROE (he so hdi quy tbu dugc la duong va nhan cac gia tri la 0,996; 0,0969; 0,0696; 0,131 va 0,T45), ket qua nghien ciiu nay thong nhat vdi kgt qua nghien cim cua hau bet cac nghien ciiu da thuc hien nliu Liman & Mohammed (2018). Tuy nhign, theo nghign CIJU ciia Soet & cgng su (2018), luu chuyin tien thuan tir hoat dgng tai chinb va hoat dgng dSu tu dgu cd anh hudng ngugc chilu vdi ROE Sir khac biet ve ket qua nghien ciiu la do cac tac gia nghien cim mau doanh nghiep la cac quy man" h6 lai Kenya trong giai doan tir 2011 din 2016 vi thg c6 su khac nhau vl ca pham vi nghien ciru \hx bbi canh nghien cim vdi nghien ciiu nay tai Viet Nam nen chac chan ket qua nghign ciiu khdng thi nhat quan vdi nhau. Nliu vay. day la bang chiing thuc nghiem cbo cbiing ta khang dmh gia thuygt nghign cim thir hai dugc chap nban.
5.1.3 Doi v&i mo hinh EPS
Ket qua nghign cim cung kiiang dinh c6 moi quan he cimg chilu giira CFO, CFFm va EPS (he s6 hdi quy tbu dugc nban gia ni duang la 5,64 va 2,3). Anh hudng ciia CFIin, CFlout, CFFin, CFFout tdi EPS duang nhung it cd y nghia thong kg d miic 10% Kit qua nghign ciiu nay tuong ddng vdi ket qua nghien cim ciia Abualrob & Maswadeh (2020) khi cac tac gia nghien ciiu anli hudng ciia cac ty suat tai chinh CO Sli dung ddng tign tir boat dgng kinh doanh tdi EPS ciia cac ngan hang tai Jordan. Dua Uren kit qua nghien cim nay. chiing ta kgt luan gia thuyet nghien
ciiu thii ba dugc chap nhan.
5.2. Mpt so khuyen nghi 5.2 ! Ddi v&i doanh nghiip
Kit qua thu dugc ti;r nghign cim nay da cbi ra rang gia tri lim chuyin tiln thuSn rir hoat dgng kinh doanb cd anb hudng tich cue tdi t5t ca cac thudc do hieu qua haat dgng kinh doanh trong doanb nghiep (ROA, ROE, EPS). Hoat dgng kinh doanh la haat dgng chinh ciia doanh nghiep. D I tang gia tii luu chuyen tien tir boat dgng kinh doanb tbi cac nha quan Iy doanh nghiep can tap trung day manh tieu thu san pham, hang hoa, cung cap dicb vu ciing nhu xiic tien thu tign tir cac boat dgng nay.
5.2.2. Ddi vai cdc nhd ddu ttr
De dua ra quygt dinb dau tir, cac chi tigu do ludng hieu qua hoat dgng kinb doanii can dugc dg cap tdi la ROA, ROE. Ben canh dd, cac nha dau tu can nhan dinh dugc ygu td tac dgng tich cue tdi cac chi tieu nay. Ket qua ngbien cuu ciia bai viet nay da chi ra rang cd mdi quan be tich cue giiia luu chuygn tiln thuan til' haat dgng kinh doanh, ddng tien thu vao va chi ra cho boat dgng tai chinb, hoat dgng dau hr vdi ROA va ROE Dieu nay cho thay tai cac doanh nghigp cd sir van dgng ciia dong tign ldn (du la ddng tien thu vao hay chi ra) diu la cac dau hieu tot cho thay ket qua kinh doanh tdt va cac nha d5u tu khdng nen bd qua cac co hgi dau tu vao cac doanh nghiep nay.
6. Ket luan
Bai vigt nay da thuc hien kliao sat anh hudng cua cac thanh pban ddng tien tdi hieu qua boat dgng kinh doanh cua cac cdng ty phi tai chinh niem ygt tren HOSE d Viet Nam. Ddng gdp mdi cua nghign ciiu nay dd la d nhan td nghign cmi va bdi canh nghien cim mdi. Tac gia da khai thac ca gia tri ddng tiln vao va ddng tien ra cho cac boat dong dSu tir va tai chhih nrong doanh nghigp va xem xet anii hudng cua dong tien tdi bieu qua kinh doanli mdt each toan p p " bang nhieu chi tigu danh gia tir ROA, ROE va l ^ t n g ; " p t " ^ - ^ ' ' ' ' '' "^" kinb tg dang phattnentaiChau A Carn„i,'- • la. CO the su dun. kSt ui, f ' ™ ' ' " " ^ " " " § bO sung thim v & ' ; r ; t ° * " ' ^ ' ' ^ ° * ^
nghi ho« dgng kii:;;:'^;i-s"'-""E"
bietvinganhnghjkinhdoan . " i " * ' ^^.^^^' nghien ctru mot nhjm lam ph ' * " ' " •=*<= ^^' ^^
nghien ciru nay. ^ PW them chii di Sd 275 thing 5/2020
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Thuc Uang va giai phap', Tgp chi Kinh ti & Plidt triin, 205(11), 40- 49.
Nguyin Hihi Anh & Nguyen Thanh Hieu (2015), 'Su dung thong tin lai nhuan ke toan va dong tien trong qua khir de du bao dong tien tir hoat dpng kinh doanh cua cac cong ty phi tai chinh niem yet tren Scr giao dich chimg khoan thanh phi H I Chi Minh', Tgp chi Kinh ti Chdu A Thai Binh Duang. 458(12), 78-80
Nguyin Thanh Hilu & Nguyen Thiiy Hudng (2018), 'Nghien ciiu anh huong ciia ca cAu nguin vin toi kha nang sinh Icri Uong cac cong ty mem y i t tai Viet N a m ' , Tgp chi Kinh te & Phdt trien, 254, 55-63.
Nwakaego, D.A, Ikcchukwu, O. & Ifiinanya, L.C. (2015), 'Effect of Cash Flow Statement on Company's Perfomiance of Food and Beverages Companies in Nigeria', World Applied Science Journal, 33(12), 1852-1857.
Ogbeide, S. & Akanji, B. (2017), 'A Smdy on the Ralabonship between Cash Flow and Fmancial Performance of Insurance Companies: Evidence from a Developing Economy', Review of International Comparative Management, 18(2), 148-157.
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So 275 thdng 5/2020
