Vl$r NAM - cAi CACH VA Hdl NHAP
Tac dong cua khung hoang kinh te toan cau 2008 tai xuat - nhap khau Viet Nam
HOANG CHI CUONG BUI THI THANH NHAN"
D 6 T H I BICH NGQC*"
Khimg hodng tdi chinh - kinh te todn cdu dugc kich hogt b&i cii sdc Lehman Brothers vdo thdng 9 ndm 2008 dd dnh hu&ng tieu cue den nen kinh le lodn cdu vd Viet Nam. Bdi viet ndy xdy dung hoi phuang trinh luc hdp ddn sic dung phuang phdp u&c luang Hausman - Taylor (I98I) vd die lieu bdng hdn hgp (panel data) cita 18 ddi tdc thuang mgi quan trgng cua Viet Nam giai dogn 1995 - 2011. Muc dich Id de ddnh gid lgi tdc dgng ciia cudc khimg hodng tdi chinh - kinh te todn cdu 2008 t&i .xudt, nhgp khdu cua Viet Nam. Ket qud thuc nghiem cho thdy nhu du dodn la khiing hodng dd ldm gidm nhdp khdu cua Viet Nam. Trong khi d&. khdng cd bdng chirng thuyet phuc cho thdy khimg hodng cd tdc dgng tieu cue ldm gidm xudt khdu ciia Viet Nam.
Tir khda: Kfn'tng hodng tdi chinh - kinh ti todn cdu, xudt khdu. nhdp khdu.
Viet Nam.
1. Gi61 thieu
Vao euoi nhung nSm 1990, dau nhihig nam 2000, gia nha dll tai My tang cao tao ea hpi beo bd cho gidi kinh doanh dia oe. Gia nha dat cao mgt phan dugc tiep sue tir lal sudt thdp do Cue Dy tru: Lien bang My (FED - Federal Reserve System) da duy tri mire Iai suat thap trong mot thdi gian qua dai vdi dpng ea duy tri ddng USD ylu nham Ihiic day \ual khau, keo can can 'D»i hflc Waseda. Nhiil Ban
'""O^i hpc Dfin L§p Hai Phdng
thuang mai trd lai can bang va kich thich dau tu trong nin kinh tl. Nguyen nhan quan trpng hem, diy gia nha dit len cao la sy ddi ddo ve tin dung. Cac ngan hang va to chuc tai chinh lai My da khong ngan ngai cung cap nhimg khoan tin dung cho cac khach hang cua minh mpl each de dang nhung lai dudi chuan (subprime- mortgages) - tire dieu kien rang bupc cho cac khoan vay bj ndi long (nhieu bao cao da chi ra ring nlu thu nhap ciia ngudi vay la 50.000 USD mgl nam thi hp da co the tiep can vdi mpt gdi
NhOng vin di KINH Tt VA CHJNH TRj THt GIOI So 7(207) 2013 - 33
Tac dgng cua cupc khung hoang... Hoang Chi Cyong - Biii Thj Thanh Nhan - Po Thj Bich_Ng<?c lin dung len ldi 150.000 USD). Dh cd nhiing
khoan tin dung cho khach hang, cac ngan hang va to chirc lai chinh My da phat hanh trai philu de huy ddng von lir ihj trudng tai chinh trong va ngoai nudc. Sy viec se khdng co gi dang noi neu nhu gia nha dat tang va duy tri theo diing gia trj thyc cua no va ngudi mua cung co nang lyc tai chinh lanh manh, nhung trong thyc te cho vay dudi ehuan tang manh da lam cho
"bong bong" bat dgng san cang luc cang phinh to va dat thi trudng nha dat va tiep do la thj trudng tin dung tai My cting nhu nhieu quoc gia chau Au vao the nguy hiem. Trong boi canh loan cau hda, he thong tai chinh the gidi co mdi quan he ehat ehe vdi nhau, nhat la cae trung tam tai chinh the gidi nhu New York, London... Du ng trong mang nay nhay tir 160 ty USD ciia nam 2001 Ien 540 ly vao nam 2004 va bting no thanh 1.300 ty vao nam 2007. Theo udc tinh vao cuoi Quy Ml nam 2008, han mot nira gia trj thj trudng nha dal My la tien di vay vdi mpl phan ba cac khoan nay la ng kho doi.
Trude do, de doi phd vdi Iam phat, FED da lien tuc tSng lai sual lir 1% vao giti-a nam 2004 len 5.25% vao gitra nam 2006 khiln lai vay phai Ira trd ihanh ap luc qua ldn vdi ngudi mua nha. Thi Irudng bat dgng san thdi diem nay bit dau co dau hieu dong bang va gia nha dat sul giam manh'.
Khimg hoang lai chinh - kinh t l loan ciu dugc chinh thuc kich boat bdi cii sic Lehman Brothers' vao thang 9 nam 2008 tai My. Cupc Xem 'Jims - ndm hi trdng cua kinh iS Ihe gidi".
hllp://vne\press nct/gl/kinh-doanh/quoc-le/2008/
12/3ba0<)ac7 . tnjy cap ngay 13 thang 5 nSm 2013.
• Lehman Hrolhers: thanh lap nim 1.850 bai 3 anh cm Henry, Rmaniiel va Vbscr Lehman ngiriri Do Thai tir Dire di cu .sang M \ . la mpl lap Joan chirng khoan \a ngiin hang dau lu Imi thu 4 cua My. LTnh vi;c hiiai dong chirih cua i.ip doan la ngan hang ddu lu, huon ban co phieu \a trji phicu, nghien eiru thi inrong, quan ly dau
34
khung hoang lan tCr thj irudng bit ddng san sang thi trudng tin dung va c u l i eiing din den khung hoang tai ehinh tai M$>. Sau do, no Ian sang nhieu nudc chau Au, khiln nhilu cong ty Idn rai vao linh trang ihua 16, pha san nhu Country Financial cua My, Northern Rock cua Anh...
Cugc khiing hoang bit diu Ian rgng ra khap the gidi thong qua hai kenh chinh la tai chinh va ngoai thuang bdi My la thj trudng Idn nhat the gidi - thj trudng ma hau bet cac quoc gia nhu Trung Quoc, Nhat Ban hay Lien minh chau Au (EU), ke ca Viet Nam deu phai le thupc vao sir tang irudng cua nd, va he qua la su xual hien mgl cudc khung hoang kinh te toan eau. Day dugc coi la mgt trong nhii-ng cudc khung hoang toi tc nhat trong Ijch sir, duge so sanh nhu Dgi khiing hoang nhihig nam 1930, va no ehi dien ra doi lan trong mdt the ky ma thoi. Doi vdi kenh Ihir nhat, nhirng to chirc, ca nhan dau lu vao trai phieu hoac sd hii:u cd phan ciia cac ngan hang va to chirc tai chinh My bj anh hudng trye tiep. Kenh thu hai la ngoai thuang, nhu:ng quoc gia ed quan he thuong mai chat che vdi My (dac biet la xuat khau) chju anh hudng nang ne vi xuat khau sang thi trudng nay giam sul do nhu eau nhap khau ciia My giam manh bat nguon tir hau qua ciia khiing hoang (nhieu doanh nghiep pha san, thai nghiep lang, thu nhap ngudi dan giam). Neu nhin vao cac ban thu bieu tai chinh, thuang mai, dau tu, chung khoan va kinh te I h l gioi thi sau nam 2008 hau hit d i u giam sut manh.
Trong boi canh ay, Viet Nam vdi tu each la mgt trong cac ddi tac Ihuang mai ctia My cung
tu, va ngan hang tu nhan. Tap doan dai try so chinh a New York. \ a hai tru sa khac 6 London v;-! Tokyo, cung nhu nhieu van phong dai dien khap ihe gioi. Ngay 19'5'2()()S, Tap doan tuyen bo pha san voi klioan net 613 ly USD sau khi khong c6 cong ty nao ch5p nh?n mua lgi. Day la \ u pha san ngan hang ! ^ nhdl trong lieh sir My. Nguon Wikipedia. website:
http://vi.\\ikipcdia.org/wiki/Lehman_Brolhers (truy cap ngay 29/4 2012).
- NhOng vin di KINH T ^ VA CHiNH TR! THt G l d l S6 7(207) 2013
Ho^ng Chi Cu^ng - But Thj Thanh Nhan - Po Thj Bich Nggc Tac dpng cua cugc khung ho^ng..
bj anh hudng vi M^ la thi irudng xuat khau Idn nhat cua Viet Nam vdi kim ngach Ien tdi gan 20tyUSD.
Vdy cugc khung hodng tdi chinh - kinh te lodn cdu ndy dnh hu&ng the ndo t&l xudt. nhdp khdu cua Viet Nam? Trong thuc te cung co mgt vai nghien cuu eiia Nhom tac gia thpc Vien Nghien cuu Quan ly Kinh le Trung uong (CIEM) nam 2010, va mpt vai nghien ciru khac dimg phuang phap mo ta (descriptive), phan lieh djnh tinh (qualitative analysis) va djnh lugng (quantitative analysis). Pham Thj Hdng Hanh (2012) cung da xay dung md hinh luc hap dan de danh gia tac dpng ciia cupc khung hoang nay tdi xuat, nhap khau ciia Viet Nam va ket lu^n rang khung hoang lam giam xuat khau va khong CO tac dpng tryc tiep Iam giam nhap khau cua Viet Nam. Tuy nhien, cac lac gia diing sd lieu tir nam 1990 den 2008 - nam khung hoang mdi bat dau xay ra, va phuang phap udc lugng binh phucmg cue tieu (OLS) va tac ddng ngau nhien (Random - effects) von co nhung ban che nhai dinh. Hon nti-a, trong mo hinh, cac tac gia gia djnh tac dgng cua tai ca cac hiep djnh ihuong mai ma Viet Nam da ky ket la nhu nhau nen chi diing mdt bien gia nhj phan (binary dummy). Dieu nay co the lam tang hoac giam anh hudng ciia cac bien doe lap khac trong md hinh, va khong the danh gia dugc tac dpng ciia timg hiep djnh thuang mai cu the, nen ket qua can dugc kiem djnh Iai. Xuat phal tu each tiep c§n do bai bao nay se xay dyng mo hinh luc hap dan (gravity model) vdi phucmg phap udc lugng sau ban la Hausman - Taylor (1981) va
so lieu cap nhat cho tdi nam 20! I, de danh gia lai tac dpng eiia cudc khiing hoang nay tdi xual, nhap khau ciia Viet Nam.
Viec danh gia lac dgng ciia cupc khung hoang lai chinh - kinh tl loan ciu 2008 tdi xuat, nhap khau ciia Viet Nam bing mo hinh kinh le va phan tich thuc nghiem se cho kit qua thuyet phuc ban cac nghien cuu diing phuang phap phan tich djnh tinh va mo ta thong thudng. Ket qua nghien ciru mot mat se ed y nghTa quan trgng cho viec hoach djnh ehinh sach thuang mai eiia Viet Nam irong thye tiln, mat khac no se ciing eo cho viec ap dyng mo hinh lyc hap dan va phuang phap udc lugng Hausman - Taylor (198!) trong vice danh gia tac dgng cua cac yeu to ldi su thay doi eua dong chay thuang mai quoc te (international trade flows). Cau triic ciia bai bao nhu sau: Muc 2 phan tich mgt each tong quan thuc trang xuat, nhap khau ciia Viet Nam giai doan 1995 - 2011; Muc 3 trinh bay ehi liel ve mo hinh luc hap dan va so lieu dugc su- dung trong mo hinh; Muc 4 phan tich ket qua thyc nghiem; Muc 5 la kel luan va mgl so khuyen nghj.
2. Phan tich ting quan ve thuong mai Viet Nam giai doan 1995-2011
Phin nay se phan tich mgl each tong quan thuc trgng gia tri xuat, nhap khau eiia Viel Nam cung nhu tie do tang trudng cua chiing thdi gian gin day. Bilu do 1 dudi day bieu dien mpt each ting quan gia trj xuat nhap khau ciia Viet Nam giai doan 1995-2011.
NhOvg vin di KINH T^ VA CHJNH TRj TH^ Giai So 7(207) 2013 - 35
T^c dpng cua cupc khung hoang . Hoang Chi Cuxyng - Biii Thj Thanh Nhan - P6 Thj Bichjjggg^
Bieu do I: Xuat, nhap khau ciia Viet Nam giai doan 1995 - 2011
Dan vi Trieu USD
120000 50 100(100
800(10 60000 40(100 20000 0 -20000 -40000
.1 ;i k .1 iiiill 1 1
|<)7 I9')« \W) 2()<){) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20i)9 2010 2011
• Xuaikhaii(gia FO.B, tr^ic tiinglrai) Cancan ihirongmgi (tryc lung Irai) Tanglnrcrne nlipp khau %{lrgc lung pliai)
• Nhgp khau (gia C I F , iniclunglriii) Tiingtmcmg xual khau%(ln,ic lung phai)
Ngudn: Tinh todn cua cdc tdc gid tirsd lieu Tir Bieu do I cho ihay, thuang mai Viet Nam tang trudng deu qua cac nam ke ca ve gia trj lan toe do tang truang. Cu the. xuat khau ciia Vi?t Nam tang tir 5.448,9 Irieu USD nam 1995 len 14.482.7 trieu USD nam 2000 va dat 96.905.7 Irieu USD nam 2011. Nhap khiu tang lu 8.155,4 trii>u USD nam 1995 Ien 15.636,5 irieu USD nam 2000 va dat 106.749,9 trieu USD nam 2011. Toe do tang trudng xuat khau binh quan giai doan 1995 - 2000 la 24,14%, giai doan 2001 - 2006 la 18.70% va giai doan 2007 - 2011 la 20,55%. Toe dp tang trudng nhap khau giai doan 1995 - 2000 la 19,18%, giai doan 2001 2006 la 19,51%. va giai doan 2007 2011 la 20.44''b Nhin chung toe dp tang irudng ciia xuat. nhap khau deu tuong doi cao va cao ban toe dp tang trucjng ciia GDP. Chung ta cung nhan thay rd rang la sau gia nhap WTO nam 2007 ca xual va nhap khau cua Vict Nam deu t5ng cao va sau 5 nSm lang gap doi so vdi muc trude gia nhap. Tuy nhien, Viet Nam ludn
ciia Tdng cue Thong ke, ndm 2013.
roi vao tinh irang nhap sieu. Tir miic tham hyt 2.706,5 trieu USD nam 1995 tang Ien ldi 18.028,7 trieu USD nam 2008 va sau do giam vl mue 12.843,6 trieu USD nam 2011. Tham but can can thucmg mai (nhap sieu) se eo tac dpng xau tdi tai khoan vang Iai (Current Account) trong can can ihanh loan long the ciia Viet Nam (BOP - Balance of Payment).
Nguyen nhan Iham hul la Viet Nam van phai nhap khau phan Idn cdng nghe, nguyen lieu dau vaO, hang lieu diing xa xi tir the gidi de phuc vy cho tieu diing npi dia, san xuat trong nudc phuc vu xuat khau. Mat khac, do ca cau xual khau lac hau: xuat tai nguyen (dau mo, than, quang), hang tham dung lao dpng (da giay, del may, hang dien tir lap rap trong nudc), thiiy hai .san.
nong pham vdi gia trj gia tang thap. Trong khi do, Viet Nam nhap khau phin \6n cong ngh?, may moc thilt bj, hang eong nghii^p, nguyen lieu diu \ao vdi gia trj gia tang cao. Mpt phin nua la do gia nhap WTO, Viet Nam ehju tac
36- - NhOng van di KINH Tt VA CHiNH TR! THt GIQfl So 7(207) 2013
HoAng Chi Ciromg - Bui Thj Thanh Nhan - Po Thj Bich Nggc Tac dpng cua cupc khung hoang..
dpng manh ciia "sang lao thuang mai" (trade creation effect). Vi Viel Nam phai gd bo hang rao thue quan va phi thul quan theo Ip trinh khien hang eong nghiep co xu hu(jng re hon, tao dieu kien nh$p khau nhilu ban. Mpl yeu to khong the khong de cap la do nhap hang xa xi tieu diing cho ndi dia nhu d id, rugu, my pham eao cap, dien thoai di dpng... Mdt diem het sue luu y la sau khiing hoang tai ehinh va suy thoai kinh te toan cau 2008 ca xuat va nhap khau ciia Vi?l Nam deu giam manh, toe dp tang trudng am, va sau dd quay trd lai xu the tang trudng d cac nam tiep theo (xem Bleu do I).
De Iugng hda lac dpng eiia khung hoang lai chinh - kinh tl 2008 tdi xuit, nhap khiu ciia Vi?t Nam, phan tiep theo se dl cap din viee xay dyng hai phuong irinh lyc hap dan va trinh bay sd lieu dugc dimg trong md hinh kinh te nay.
3. Mo hinh l^-c hap dan va so lifu su- dung cho mo hinh
Mo hinh Lyc hap dan (gravity mode!) dugc Tinbergen su dung Ian dau tien nam 1962 de danh gia tac dgng eua cac hiep djnh thuang mai tu do (FTA - Free Trade Agreement) tdi dong chay thuang mai giti-a cac nudc. Mo hinh dugc xay dyng dya tren Dinh luat hap dan (Law of Gravity) cua Newton theo do lue hap dan ty le thuan vdi trgng Iugng ciia hai vat the va ty !e nghjch vdi khoang each giQ-a chting. Mo hinh Luc hap dan cd dien dugc md ta bdi phuang trinh (I) dudi day:
Fij = G(MiIV1j)/Dij(!) Trong dd:
. Fjj la gia irj trao doi thucmg mai giua nude i va nude j ;
. Mi la dp Idn ve quy mo kinh te ciia nudc i (thudng dting gia tri GDP, hay GNP);
. Mj la dp Idn ve quy mo kinh te ciia nudc j (ihudng dung gia trj GDP, hay GNP);
. Dij la khoang each giira nudc i vaj (thudng diing dan vj km do eung iron Idn nhat gitra 2 nude);
. G la hang so.
Sau nhieu thap ky phat trien, no dugc phat trien dudi nhieu cau triic khac nhau va nhilu bien mdi dugc them vao de danh gia tac dpng CLia chiing tdi quan he thuong mai gitra cac nudc nhu: vdn FDI, chinh saeh thucmg mai (trade policy), ty gia hoi doai (exchange rate), yeu to van boa (cultural differences), ngon ngtr (common languguage), Ijch sir ve quan he thupc dja (colonial history), che dp uu dai thue quan phd cap cac nudc danh cho nhau (GSP Generalized System of Preferences), mirc dp xam nhap thj trudng (market access), dp md cira ve thuang mai (trade openness),... Mo hinh dugc diing pho bien va dong vai tro mpt mo binh kinh te lugng huu hieu trong cac nghien euu eua Poyhonen (1963); Linnemann (1966);
Anderson (1979); Bergstrand (1985); Havryshin va Priehett (1991); Frankel va Wei (1993);
Bayoumi va Eichengreen (1995); DeardorfT (1998); Mauro (2000); Aderson va van Wincoop (2003); Rose (2004a); Subramanian va Wei (2007); Tomz va nhilu tac gia (2007);
Helpman va nhieu lac gia (2007); Shujiro \a Misa (2007); Eicher va Henn (2011); Pham Thj H6ng Hanh (2012); Medvedev (2012)...
Co nhilu phuong phap udc Iugng he so eho cac biln trong md hinh nay nhu OLS (Ordinary Least Square), FE (Fixed - Eflects) hay RE (Random - Effects). Doi vdi dang dd lieu bang
NhQng vin di KINH Tt VA CHJNH TRj TH^ GICH So 7(207) 2013 - 37
Tac dgng cua cupc khung hoang... Hoang Chi Cwmq - Bui Thj Thanh Nhiin - 0 6 Thj Bich Nggc h6n hgp (panel data) thi OLS khong phai la mpt
lya chgn hgp iy vi phuang phap nay la phuang phap udc lugng dan gian nhat va cung thudng dan ldi su ihay doi/thien vj ve mirc dp co y nghTa thong ke eiia cac bien dpe lap su dung trong mo hinh. Mac dii, FE la phuang phap udc Iugng tuong doi lot de danh gia ve tac dpng ciia cac bien dpc lap len bien phu thupc, nhung FE lai khdng the udc lugng dugc he so cho cac bien c6 gia trj co dinh theo thdi gian nhu khoang each giii:a cae nudc (distance) hoac eo chung dudng bien gidi (border sharing) ma day lai la cac bien quan trpng trong mo hinh luc hap dan. RE co the udc lugng dugc he so ciia cac bien co gia tri co dinh iheo thdi gian nhung lai khong the cho ket qua tot neu cac mau lya chgn trong mo hinh khong dong nhat (thuat ngu- tieng Anh Irong kinh te lugng ggi la heterogeneous country sample). De kcl hgp uu diem eiia ca 2 phucmg phap FE va RE, Hausman va Taylor (1981) va Wyhowski (1994) da d l xuit mpt phucmg phap udc lugng mdi mang ten Hausman - Taylor estimator (1981). Mpl vai kiem dinh ciia cac tac gia nhu Mcpherson va Trumbull (2003), Egger (2005) da chi ra rang kel qua udc lugng diing phuang phap Hausman - Taylor il nhat la phu hgp vdi 2 phuong phap FE va RE va thudng la lot, va dang tin cay ban.
Vdi each tiep can do, tac gia se diing phuang phap udc lugng Hausman - Taylor estimator (1981) cho phan lich thyc nghiem (empirical analysis) trong bai bao nay. Theo Hausman - Taylor thi phucmg trinh eo dang nhu sau:
> It = A/ X'li, +/^7 X'2ii + aiz'ij + a2Z'2i + £•„ + u, (2) Trong do:
y„ la bien phu thupc; x'm la nhihig biln dpc lap CO gia trj tha\ ddi theo thdi gian va khong cd tuong quan vdi sai sd Uj trong mo hinh RE; xSi,
la nhiing biln ddc lap cd gia trj thay doi theo tbdi gian va co tuang quan vdi sai so u,; z'n la nhiJng biln dpc lap co gia trj khong thay doi theo thdi gian va khong eo tucmg quan vdi u,;
zSj la nhung biln dpc lap co gia tri khong thay doi theo thdi gian va co tuong quan vdi ui; ^/ vii ai la cac he sd cua cac bien dpe lap trong mo hinb ta phai udc Iugng; e\i la sai sd ngau nhien vdi hy vgng se bi trugt tieu (co gia In = 0), Tbeo nhu mo hinh ciia Hausman va Taylor thi ta phai dua ra dugc cac djnh nghTa ro rang eho cac bien su dung trong mo hinh nay. Phucmg Irinh trong bai viet nay dugc xay dyng dya tren vice tham khao mpt so mo hinh da su dung trudc day nhu ciia Pham Thj Hong Hanh (2012)..., tuy nhien cac tac gia co nhung dieu chinh de co dugc ket qua ude lugng tot va dang tin cay hem. Cu the, trong mo hinh, tae gia sg diing cac bien gia dpc lap de danh gia tac dpng rieng re ciia timg hiep djnh thuang mai ma Viel Nam da ky ket se cho ket qua ehuan xae han va khong anh hudng ldi viec danh gia anh hudng ciia cac bien dpc lap khac. Hon nii'a nhu da trinh bay, lac gia diing phucmg phap udc lugng sau va uu viel hem la Hausman - Taylor. Mpt so cac bien khae eung dugc them vao hoac bo khoi mo hinh cho hgp ly. Md hinh tae gia xay dyng co cau true nhu sau:
LnEXji = p,o + pi iLnDISvN, + pp.LnGDPvNi + PnLnGDPj. + P u Ln[l - ( G D P V N . / ( G D P V N I +
GDPj,))-- (GDP|,/(GDPvNi+ GDPj,))'] + Pi5LnFDIi,.,+Pi6LnRERcijnj/vNni + TiiAFTA +
Y12USBTA + ynACFTA + yuAKFTA + yisJVEPA + YifiAJCEP + ypAANZFTA + YiiiBotbinvNji + Yi90neinvNji + TnoBORvNj + T , „ C R i ; ' " + r „ 2 C R I ~ + e , v . j ( 3 ) LnlMj, = P211 + PjiLnDISvN, + P22LnGDPvNi + PijLnODP,, + P24 L n [ l - (GDPvN,/(GDPvN,-i-
38 - NhOng van di KINH rt VA CHlNH TRj THg Gldl S6 7(207) 2013
Hoang Cht CiFtyng - Bui Thj Thanh Nhan - Po Thj Bich Ngoc Tac dong cua cuoc khung hoang...
GDP,,))- - (GDPj,/(GDPvN, + GDP,,))-] + P25LnFDIj,., + p26LnRERcuRj™ND, + 721 AFTA +
r22USBTA +y,3ACFTA + y24AKFTA + y25JVEPA + y2r.AJCEP + •y27AANZFTA + Y2KBothinvNji + yigOneinvNji + y2ioBORvNj +
y 2 „ C R i ; " ' + y2,2CRI/°°'' + D2VN,(4) Trong do:
EXji la gia trj xuat khau ciia Viel Nam sang nude j nam t (USD);
IM|i la gia trj nhap khau ciia Viet Nam l u n u d c j nam t(USD);
FDIji-i la von FDi thyc hicn nam I-1 cua nudc j tai Viel Nam (USD);
DlSvNi la khoang each gitra Viet Nam v^ nudc j (km) - dugc lay tir eong trinh ciia CEPII;
GDPvNi la gia tri GDP thue t l ciia Viet Nam nam I (USD);
GDP,i la gia In GDP thue te eiia nude j nam I (USD);
RERfiiRi'VNDi la ty gia hoi doai thue le giira VND va dan vj tien le eiia nudc j nam t xae djnh bing cdng ihire sau:
RERcnKi'VNDi = CfURi VNDi '(CPlii /CPIvNi) (5) Trong dd:
RERniRjXNiJi la ty gia hoi doai thyc te gitra VND \ a don vj lien te ciia nudc j nam I;
CtitRiVNDi la ly gia hoi doai danh nghia giira VND \ a dan \ j lien te ciia nudc j nam t;
CPlj, la chi so gia tieu diing ciia nudc j nam t;
CPIvNi la chi so gia tieu diing ciia Viet Nam nam t;
AFTA lii bicn gia nhj phan cd gia trj la I nlu Vipi Nam \ a nudc j la ihiinh vien khdi mau dich ty do ASEAN nam t va ngugc Igi eo gia trj bang 0.
USBTA la bien gia nhj phan cd gia trj la I neu Viet Nam va My ky hiep dinh Thuang mai song phuang (BTA) nam t va ngugc lai bang 0.
ACFTA la bien gia nhi phan co gia trj la I neu Viet Nam va nudc j la thanh vien Khii mau djeh ty do ASEAN - Trung QuIe nam t va ngupc lai bang 0.
AKFTA la bien gia nhj phan co gia tri la I neu Viet Nam va nudc j la thanh vien Hiep djnh thuang mai ty do ASEAN Han QuIc nam t va ngugc Iai bang 0.
JVEPA la bien gia nhi phan co gia irj la I neu Viet Nam va Nhat Ban ky ket Hiep dinh Doi tac Kinh te Nhat Ban - Viet Nam nam t va ngugc lai bang 0.
AJCEP la bien gia nhj phan co gia tri la I neu Viet Nam va nudc j la thanb vien ciia Hiep djnh Doi tac Kinh le Toan dien ASEAN - Nhat Ban nam t va ngugc lai bang 0.
AANZFTA la bien gia nhj phan co gia tri la I neu Viet Nam \ a nudc j la thanh vien ciia Hiep dinh thuang mai lu do ASEAN, Auslralia, New Zealand nam I va ngugc lai bang 0.
BolhinvNji la bien gia nhj phan co gia trj la I nlu Viet Nam va nudc j ia thanh \ien WTO nam t va ngugc lai bang 0.
OneinvNji la bien gia nhj phan co gia trj la I nlu Viel Nam hoac nudc j la thanh vien WTO nam t va ngugc lai bang 0.
BORvNj la bien gia nhj phan cd gia trj la I nlu Viet Nam va nudc j co chung dudng bien gidi va ngugc lai bang 0.
CR1|''*'" la biln gia nhi phan co gia trj la I nlu nudc j chju tac dong khiing hoang nam 1997 va ngugc Iai bang 0.
NhOng vin di KINH Tt vA CHJNH TRj THt GIOI S6 7(207) 2013 - 39
Tac dgng ciia cupc khung ho^ng... Ho^ng Chi Cu^yng - Bi)!! Thj Thanh Nhan - Po Thj Bich Nggc CRIj'"'"^ la bien gia nhj phan c6 gia trj la
I nlu nudc j chju tac dpng khung hoang nSm 2008 va ngugc Iai bang 0.
Gia trj ciia hai bien khung hoang dya tren cong trinh nghien ciru ctia tae gia Laeven va Valencia (2008) va nhilu nghien cihi khac cung nhu cac phucmg tien thong tin dai chiing.
[I- (GDPvNi/(GDPvNt ^- GDPj,))^
(GDPj,/(GDPvNi + GDPj,))-] ggi tat la SIMSIZE ]k mue dp tuong dong ve quy mo kinh te giti-a Viet Nam va dli tac j cd gia trj trong khoang (- CO, -0,69). Ln(SIMSlZE) co gia trj ^ -oo nlu co sy chenh lech qua Idn ve quy mo kinh tl (quy mo GDP thuc thl) giu-a Viet Nam va dli tac j . Ln(SIMSIZE) co gia tri = -0,69 nlu quy mo kinh tl eiia Viet Nam tucmg duang hoac bang quy mo kinh te ciia ddi lac j .
EivNj, E2VNJ la cac sai so ngau nhien Tit ca cac biln djnh Iugng se diing logarithm CO sl e (In) trir cac bien gia nhj phan trong mo hinh. Gia trj cac bien dinh Iugng dugc dua ve gia trj thyc (gia goc co djnh nam 2005). De tranh sy tucmg quan gitra bien GDP va bien FDI, tac gia dimg vdn FDI thyc hien ciia nam trudc do (lili mpt nam).
Ve so lieu: Cae tae gia diing dti lieu bang hon hgp (panel data) bao gdm 18 ddi tac thuang mai dn djnh va quan trgng nhat eiia Viet Nam bao gdm: Australia, Bi, Canada, Trung Quoc, Phap, Dire, Hdng Kong, Nhat Ban, Malaysia, Ha Lan, Philippines, Nga, Singapore, Han Quoc, Dai Loan, Thai Lan, Anh va My. 18 doi tac tren chiem khoang 80% tong gia trj xuat, nhap khau cua Viet Nam giai doan 1995 -2011.
Sd lieu dugc thu thap tir nhieu nguon tin cay
trong va ngoai nudc nhu: Tong Cue Thong ke (GSO), Bp Cdng Thuang (MIT), Bp K I hoach va DIU tu (MPI), Ngan hang Thl gidi (WB), Ngan hang Phat triln chau A (ADB), Quy Tiln te quIc tl (IMF), Co quan Thing ke Lien hgp qudc (UNSD), va Td ehire Thucmg mgi the gidi (WTO).
4. Ket qua thurc nghiem va phan tich Bang I dudi day trinh bay ket qua udc lugng he sl cho cac bien giai thich (bien dpc lap) diing phuong phap udc Iugng Hausman - Taylor va phin mim Stata 11. Cae tac gia su dung rit nhilu biln dpc lap khae eting mpt Iiic trong ca 2 phuang trinh xuat va nhap khiu nham danh gia khach quan va chinh xae tac dpng eua khung hoang tai chinh kinh te 2008. Vi trong thuc tl xuit, nhap khau phai dat trong phoi eanh tuong tae vdi cac yeu to nay va cimg chju anh hudng ciia cac yeu to nay. Tuy nhien, trong khudn kho phan tich cua bai bao, tac gia dat trpng tam vao hai he so Yin va Y212. Vi hai he sd nay Iugng hoa tac dpng ciia khung hoang tai chinh - kinh te 2008 din xuit va nhap khiu cua Viet Nam.
Phan tich Ma tran Tuong quan cua 2 phucmg trinh cho thay Mo hinh Luc hap dan va so lieu la hgp Iy vi khdng eo he so tuong quan nao vugt qua 0,8. Kiem tra Kha nang dy bao cua ea hai phuang trinh qua Chi so Mean Absolute Percentage Error (ty Ie sai so tuyet doi trung binh) cho ket qua ham xuat khau la 22,22% va nhap khiu la 30%. Kit qua nay khang djnh ca 2 phuang trinh deu dang tin cay va cd the dung de du bao gia tri xuat va nhap khiu ciia Viet Nam. Tuy nhien, trong khuon khi phan tich ciia bai vilt, cac tae giS khong di sau vl mang nay.
40 - NhOng vin di KINH Tt VA CHfNH TRj THt G\6r\ S6 7(207) 2013
Hojing Chi Cu^ng - Bui Thj Thanh Nh^n - B o Thj Bich Nggc Tac ddng cua cupc khung hoang..
Bang I: Ket qua irdc lugmg h^ so cho cdc bien doc lap trong phinmg trinh
Bien d$c lap
Bien thay doi theo thdi gian va lihong tinmg quan vAi ui (x'm) LnSIMSIZE
LnRERcuRj'VNDi
AFTA USBTA ACFTA AKFTA JVEPA AJCEP AANZFTA BothinvNji OneinvNji C R l j " "
CRIi™"«
Bien thay doi theo thoi gian va co tuo'ng quan v61 Uj (x*2ii)
LnGDPvNt LnODPji LnFDlj,.,
Bien co djnh theo thoi gian va khong tuimg quan voi Ui(z^j)
LnDISvNi BORvN, Hing so
Bien phu thuoc Xuat khau: LnEXj,
0.8804044 0.1216776 -0.0095597 1.484069*
0.0177901 0.1212103 0.0113184 -0.1112417 -0.1106358 -0.5611364 -0.367057**
0.2548479*
0.2260865
1.413609*
1.477021**
0.0478521**
-1.0508*
-0.4864587 -45.3213*
Nhap khau: LnlMji
0.0262207 0.107911 -0.1065754
0.443663*
0.505259*
-0.0615998 0.3327234 -0.2504961 0.1694698 1.050332*
0.238680***
0.1248973**
-0.5291183*
1.594335*
0.7466403 0.0597642*
-1.516664*
-0.2992541 -28.72581*
Ghi cliu: co y ngliia tiidng lie a mi'rc 1%:" cd y nghia llidng Ice cr miic 5%: co y nghia ihong ice or mice 10%.
Nhuvg vSn dS KINH T t VA CHINH TR| THe GIOI So 7(207) 2013 - 41
Tac dpng ciia cugc khung ho^ng... Hoang Chi Cu-gng - Biii Thj Thanh Nhan - Bo Thj Bichjjggc^
Kit qua Bang ! cho thay, he so yu; khong eo y nghTa thong ke. Tire la khong cd can cir ket luan khung hoang lai chinh - kinh le nam 2008 lae dpng Iam giam xuat khau ciia Viet Nam.
Trong khi do, he sd Y212 am va co y nghTa thong ke d mirc 1%. Kel qua nay cho phep kel luan rang, khiing hoang tai chinh - kinh te nam 2008 da tac dpng Iam giam nhap khau cua Viet Nam khoang 69,74% (= EXP (0.5291183) - I). Kit qua nay trai ngugc hoan loan so vdi ket luan CLia tac gia Pham Thi Hong Hanh (2012) va trai vdi du doan ciia nhieu ngudi la khiing khoang lam giam xuat khau ciia Viet Nam. Vay tai sao khiing hoang tai chinh - kinh le 2008 lai khong tae dpng lam giam xuat khau cua Viet Nam nhu mo hinh thuc nghiem da chi ra? Vi ve mat ly thuyel khi khiing hoang xay ra se tac dpng tieu cyc ldi cac Ihi Irudng xuat khau ciia Viet Nam do nhu cau nhap khau ciia cac doi tac quan trgng nhu My, Nhat Ban, EU se giam silt. Cau tra Idi chinh la d ea eau mat hang xuat, nhap khau eiia Viet Nam. Tuy bai viet khong tap trung phan tieh eau triic mat hang xuat, nhap khau cua Viet Nam, nhung nhu da chi ra d nhieu nghien cuu khac Viet Nam chii yeu xuat khau lai nguyen nhu dau tho, than, quang, hang tham dung lao dpng nhu da giay, det may, hang dien lu lap rap, cap dien ciia khdi FDI, cao su, nong, thiiy, hai san nhu ea phe, ho tieu, dieu, gao, hoa qua, ca tra, ba sa, tom... chiem tren dudi 70% tong kim ngach xuat khau. Day la nhiiTig mat hang ma cau thi trudng the gidi co dp nhay cam/co gian yeu vdi yeu to gia. Ngugc Iai, Viet Nam nhap chii yeu hang cdng nghiep nhu may mdc, thiet bi, cong nghe, nguyen lieu
' Hoang Chi Circmg (2013): Does the WTO expand Vielnam '.•< Foreign Trade'. Trinh bay tai Hgi thao Quoc lc ve Kinh te va Khoa hoc Xa hpi: 2013 International Conference on Economics and Social Siecnces, tai Bangkok. Thai Lan ngay 22-23 thang 6/2013.
dau vao cho san xuit, lip rap trong nudc, xang diu, hang xa xi tieu dimg ngi dja nhu d to, xe may, dien ihoai di dpng, may tinh, mJ pham cao cap, rugu manh... ehilm iren 70% tong kim ngach nhap khau. Day la nhung mat hang ma cau thi trudng npi dia cd dp co gian/nhsiy cam cao vdi yeu td gia. He qua la khi khiing hoang xay ra, that nghiep gia lang, thu nhap giam sut tac dpng manh va ro net lam cau thi Irudng giam dan ldi nhap khau giam manh.
Tuy cae tac gia khong tim thay can cu khung hoang lam giam xuat khau eiia Viet Nam nhung do khung hoang Iam giam nhap khau khien cho xuat khau cua Viet Nam cting cd the bj giam sut, bdi nhap khau c6 quan he chat che vdi xuat khau d Viet Nam. Tire khi xuat khau tang se gia tang nhu cau nhap khau. Ngugc lai, khi nhSp khau giam se tac ddng lam giam xuat khau. Vi d Viet Nam, nguyen lieu ngoai nhap chiem ldi 2/3 gia thanh san pham nhu da chi ra d nhieu nghien ciru chang han nhu ciia CIEM nam 2010. Ngay ea cac san phain Viet Nam co lgi the so sanh nhu da giay, det may, phan Idn la dimg nguyen lieu ngoai nhap, tuang ly vdi nganh dien tir gia dung, xe may, 6 to, hoa chat, vi ta ehua ed duge he thong eae nganh cong nghiep phu trg nhu cua Trung Quoc. Tuy nhien, dieu nay can tdi mpt mo hlnh kiem chung eu the va sy phan tich day dii trong mpt nghien cuu nghiem liie. Trong khuon kho bai viel khong cho phep di xa ban.
5. Ket luan va kien nghj
Mpt nen kinh te md cho phep gia tang nhanh chdng/thuc day boat dpng ngoai thuang ciia mpt quIc gia vdi phan cdn lai cua ihl gidi. Tuy nhien, kenh dem den su gia tang eho boat dpng ngoai thuang cung chinh la kenheo ihl lam giam sill boat dpng nay. Mpt nen kinh ll cang
42 - NhOng vin di KINH Tt VA CHJNH TRI TH^ Glfiri S6 7(207) 2013
HoAng Chi Cutrng - Bui Thj Thanh Nhan - Po Thj Bich Nggc T^c dpng cua cupc khung homing...
md va hpi nhap sau se chju tac dpng cang ro net bdi cac cu soc tir ben ngoai nhu su thay doi ve gia hang hda hoac khiing hoang kieu nhu 1997 va 2008. Do do, chiln lugc cho Viel Nam la nen thay doi cau true ngoai ihuang theo hudng ben vung, da phuong hoa ihi trudng xuat, nhap khau de ehi il giam sy lc thupc vao mpt vai thi Irudng Idn. Xu the nay the hien rat rP khi cac quoc gia dang thiic day nhanh chong viec dam phan ky ket cac hiep dinh ihuang mai ty do song hoac da phuang. Hai trong so dd la ASEAN vdi 6 nudc Trung Quoc, Nhai Ban, Han Quoc, An Dp, Auslralia va New Zealand va Hiep dinh Doi lae Kinh te Chien lugc xuyen Thai Binh Duong (TPP).
Bai viel da dimg mo hinh kinh te phii hgp, dO" lieu bang hon hgp cap nhat va phuang phap udc lugng sau de danh gia lai tac dpng cua eupc khung hoang lai ehinh - kinh te toan eau nam 2008 tdi xual, nhap khau ciia Viet
Nam. K i t qua cho thay, khiing hoang lam giam tuong ddi nhap khau, va khong ed can cu de ket luan khung hoang Iam giam xuat khau nhu du doan. Tuy nhien, sy khd khan trong vi?c tiep can so lieu va muc dp ehinh xae khong ban da tuyet d l i . K i t qua co t h l thay doi theo mo binh kinh te lua chgn va phuang phap udc lugng. Do vay, cae nghien ciru thuc nghiem nen chgn mo hinh dang tin cay va phuang phap udc lugng uu viet de eo dugc kel qua chuan xae \a lot nhat. Va dac biet trong kinh le, nen xay dyng cac mo hinh loan de danh gia tac dpng ciia cac bien dpc lap Ien mpt bien phu thupc nao do se co can cu khoa hgc va dam bao dp lin cay ban. Tuy nhien, viec xay dung cac phuang Irinh kinh te va su dung cac phuong phap udc lugng trong kinh te lugng la khdng he don gian, nhung dieu do la het sire can thiet de cd dugc cac nghien ciru hgc thuat cao va co y nghTa trong nghien ciru khoa hoc*
Tdi li^u tham khao:
Busse, M. and S. Grdning (2011): Assessing the Impact of Trade Liberalization: The Case of Jordan. Working Paper, pp. 1-31.
Egger, P. (2005): Alternative Techniques for Estimation of Cross-Section Gravity Models. Review of Intemational Economics, Vol.13, No. 5, pp. 881 - 891.
Hausman, J. and W. Taylor (1981): Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects, Econometrica, Vol. 49, No.6, pp. 1377 - 1398.
Mauro, F.D. (2000): The Impact of Economic Integration on FDI and Exports: A Gravity Approach, Working Document No. 156.
Pham, T.H.H. (2012): Does the WTO accession matter for the Dynamics of Foreign Direct Investment and Trade? Vietnam's new evidence. Working paper, pp. 1-30.
Wyhowski, D. (1994): Estimation of a Panel Data Model In the Presence of Correlation between Regressors and a Two - Way Error Component. Econometric Theory, Vol. 10, No. I, pp. 130- 139.
NhOng vin di KINH Tt VA CHINH TRj T H £ G\0\ SO 7(207) 2013 - 43
Tac dpng cua cupc khung hoang... Hoang Chi Cirong - Bui Thj Thanh Nhin - 0 6 Thi Bich Nggc^
Phu luc 1:
Bien (Variables) LnEX,, LnlMj, L^DISv^i LnCDPvM LnCDPj, LnSIMSIZE LnFDIj,., LnRERciiKi/vNut AFTA IISBTA ACFTA AKFTA JVEPA AJCEP AANZFTA BothinvNj, OneinvN,, BORvN, C R l , " "
CRI,="""
Tom tat cac chi tieu thdng ke Quan sat
(Observations) 306 306 306 306 306_
"306 1 "
306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306
Trung binh man (Mean) 20.4561 20.3741 8.3099 24.5363 27.2633 -2.2742 17.9462 7.8679 0.1437 0.0392 0.1633 0.0816 0.0130 0.0653 0.0490 0.2777 0.6405 0.0555 0.1437 0.2941
t>d lech tieu chuSn (Standard Deviation)
1.1627 1.4608 0.9309 0.3192 1.3520 1.1348 1.8680 2.0986 0.3514 0.1944 0.3703 0.2743 0.1137 0.2475 0.2162 0.4486 0.4806 0.2294 0.3514 0.4563
Min 16.7017 16.8974 6.7140 23.9940 24 9592 -5.1491 10.6048 2.2857 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ..0
" 0 0 0
Max 23.5033 23.8168 9.5226 25.0309 30.214L -0.7707 21.7692 10.3280
Phy Igc 2: Mo ta chi tiet nguon thong tin cho so lieu Bicn (Variables)
EX„
IMj, DISvN, CDPvv, GDP,, SIMSIZE FDI,,., RER( I Kj/wm AFTA USBTA ACFTA AKFTA JVEPA AJCEP AANZFTA BothinvN,!
OneinvMi CRi;**^' cRi:'""'
Nguon thdng tin (Data resources) Bo Cong Thuong, GSOj^ADB
Bo Cong Thuang, GSO, ADB _ _ _ ^ _ CEPII
Ca quan thong ke cua Lien Hop quoc (UNSD) Co quan thong ke ciia Lien Hop quoc (UNSD) Ca quan thong ke ciia Lien Hap quoc (UNSD) Bo Ke hoach va Dau lu
Co quan ihong ke ciia Lien Hgp quoc (UNSD), WB, ADB WTO website, website cua Trung tam WTO cua Viet Nam WTO website, website ciia Trung tam WTO cua Viel Nam WTO website, website cua Trung tam WTO cua Viet Nam WTO website, website ciia Trung tam WTO ciia Viet Nam
WTO website, website cua Trung tam WTO cua Viel Nam, Japan Customs WTO website, Japan Customs website
WTO website, website ciia Trung lam WTO ciia Viet Nam WTO website
WTO website Laeven va Valencia (2008) Laeven va Valencia (2008)
-
44 - Nhung vin di KINH Tfe VA CHINH TRj THt a\<3\ S6 7(207) 2013
Hoing Chi Cirong - Bui Th| Thanh NhAn - 0 6 Thj Bich Ngpc Tac flgng cua cugc khung hoang
!
I 5
i f ' ! I i - 1
S ;• S :
9 = S •
E i> = W -, .; S :; S 5
9 ? 9 a = 9
S * i ? K S ^ K 5
I i I Hi i H M I i H.
9 = = 9'=999T99 = ^ =
I
W/iflng I'i'i di KINH Tfi VA CHlNH TRj THt Gl<5ri S6 7(207) 2013 -
I 5 S I
- =. s .
t i i i
S I I E S ? E
< r 9 = f = ? = ? = : =
l i s :
5 I I 5 I I I J I
I I I i S
45
