CAC NHAN TO TAC DONC Tdi V DINH DAU TU CHUTNG KHOAN PHAI SINH CUA HHA DAU TU CA NHAN:
TRUdNG HUP NGHIEN CQU TAI UIET NAIYI
Phan Trdn Trung Dung Trucmg Dai h^c Ngoai Thuong
Email: [email protected] Ngay nhan: 04/02/2020 _ Ngay duyet ddng: 08/04/2020 Ngay nhan lai: 24/03/2020
^wong nghien cim ndy. phuang phap nghien cuu PLS-SEM dugc sit dung de danh gid moi quan hi Jtgiua cdc bien ban ddu cua Ly thuyit hdnh vi co ki hoach (TPB) la Thai do, Chudn xa h^i, Nhdn thuc Him sodt hanh vi, ciing vai cdc biin duac ma rgng Id Kinh nghiem qud khu, Nhdn thuc rui ro vd Thong hieu tdi chinh de gidi thich y dinh hdnh vi dau tu chicng khodn phai sinh tai Viet Nam. Bdi viit cUng su dung phuong phdp PLS-MGA de danh gid tdc dong ciia yeu to nhdn khau hoc Thu nhqp tai su khac biet trong moi quan he giiia cdc bien tiem an. Kit qud nghiin ciru cho thdy hdii hit cdc biin trie Chudn xa hoi diu co tdc dong CO y nghia thong ke taiy dinh hdnh vi vd phdn tich MGA cho thdy co su khac biet co y nghia thSng ki trong tdc dgng ciia thong hiiu tdi chinh giUa nhom thu nhap cao vd thu nhdp thdp.
Tie khoa: Hdnh vi, PLS-SEM. TPB, PLS-MGA, Phai sinh.
1. Md dau
Thi trudng tai chinh Viet Namda trai qua 20 nam phat triln va da dat tdi do chin de hinh thanh nhiing thi tntdng tai chinh cao cap, cd do phiic tap cao nhu thi tradng phai sinh. Vdi viSc co ngay cang nhieu ngudi tham^ gia vao thi trudng phai sinh, va ke hoach tiep tuc trien khai giao dich nhiing san pham phai sink mdi sovdi san pham tuong lai VN30 vao nam 2017, CO the noi thi trudng phai sinh bat dau co su tham nhap vao he thong va dugc don nhan. So lugng 47 trieu hop dong phai sinh dugc giao dich trong vong 3 nam cho thay su tang trudng manh ciia thi tnrong, tuy nhien con so nay ciing cho thay mgt thuc te la thi trudng tai chinh Viet Nam noi chung va thi tmdng chiing khoan phai sinh noi ri6ng co ty trgng nha dau tu ca nhankha cao. Thong tin tii HNX cho thay ty trgng nha dau tu ca nhan trong thang 1/2020 chiem tdi 84,25%, ya day da la con so giam so vdi thdi gian tnrdc. Diem dang chii y la thi truong phai sinh la thi trudng tai chinh bac cao, vdi nhieu rui ro va ham chiia dg phiic tap cao, nen doi vdi cac nha dau tu ca nhan, viec tham gia thi trudng nay se chiia nhieu yeu to riii ro.
Vi ly do nay, viec danh gia cac nhan to quyet dinh tdi y dinh hanh vi tham gia dau tu chiing khoan phai sinh ciia cac nha dau tu ca nhan tren thi trudng phai sinh Viet Nam cd y nghia quan trgng, giiip dua
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ra nhiing hieu biet ve dOng ca, nhan t6 thiic day y dinh ciia nha dau tu, de tii do cd the dua ra nhiing bien phap ling xii, quan ly phii hgp.
Khi nghien ciiu ve y dinh hanh vi, khuon mau nghien ciiu co dien cd tinh ling dung cao la Ly thuyet hanh vi cd ke hoach (TPB- Theory of Planned Behavior) phat triln bdi (Ajzen, 1991). Ly thuyit nay dugc kiem chung qua thdi gian va nhieu nghien ciiu khac nhau, cho thay nang luc giai thich tot doi vdi y dinh hanh vi. Nghien ciiu nay ap durig ly thuyet TPB md rgng, vdi viec dua_ them rrigt so cac nhan to ben ngoai ly thuyet TPB cl dien dl phu hgp han vdi thi trudngphai sinh d Viet Nam trgng giai doan hien nay, nham xac dinh cac nhan to co tac dgng tdi y dinh ddu tu chiing khoan phai sinh. Ben canh do, dk phuc vu cho rnuc tieu xac djnh tac dgng trung gian ciia cac nhan t l tuyen giiia, va tac dgng khac nhau ciia cac phan nhom nhan khau hgc, nghien ciiu su dung ky thuat thong ke PLS-SEM va PLS-MGA dl xac minh hieu ling trung gian ciia nhan tl Thai do, va su khac biet giiia nhom Thu nh^p cao va Thu nhap thap.
2. Tong quan nghiin ciiii 2.1. Ly thuyit hdnh vied kS hoach Ben canh cac ly thuyit giai thich hanh vi pho biln nhu TRA, TAM, UTAUT, ... ly thuyet TPB dugc (Ajzen, 1991) phat trien, ly thuyet nay xay
khoa hoc ^
' mm mai n
Kmn Ti; vA QUAK u r dung cac nhan^tl gim co Nhan thiic kiem soat hanh vi. Thai do dli vdi hanh vi va Chuan chii quan.
Nhan tl nh^n thiic kilm soat hanh vi phan anh miic do dl dang hay^kho khan khi ngudi su dyng thuc hien hanh vi, dieu nay phu thugc vao su san co cua cac nguin luc va cac co hoi de thuc hien hanh vi ciia ngudi do, nhan to that do the hien ve ca ban mgt ngudi to ra tich cue hoac tieu cue doi vdi mgt hanh vi, va nhan tl chuan chii quan the hien tac dgng ciia xa hoi dli vdi hanh vi ciia ca nhan. Khuon mau TPB dugc nghien_ ciiu va md rgng vdi viec dua_^ them nhilu nhan tl giai thich khac, vi vay trong moi mgt bdi canh, TPB se dugc van dung mgt cachphii hgp di giai thich y dinh hanh vi hrong khuon khd ciia boi canh do.
2.2. Cdc nghien curu Hen quan tdi nhan to tdc dgng den y dinh ddu tir chung khodn phai sinh
Thdi do (ATI-Attitude towards behavior) Thai do de cap den danh gia chii quan cua ngudi diing va xu hudng ca nhan lien quan den san pham, dich vu nhat dinh theo dinh righia cua (Hu va cong su, 2019). (Lee, 2009) da dilu tra y dinh ap dung giao dich true tuyen tai Dai Loan bang md hinh TPB. Vdi dii lieu tir 338 khach hang, thai do dugc tim ra la mgt trong ba nhan to c6 anh hudng tich cue den y dinh sii dyng giao dich true tuyen.
Thai do cdn co the ddng thera vai tro ciia bien trung gian (mediator) theo ket qua ciia nhieu nghien ciiu. (Ah, 2011b) dua ra ba nhan to tac dgng tdi y dinh dau tu ciia nha dau tu pa nhan la nhan thiic rui ro, nhan thiic Igi tiic ya niem tin, trong do thai do dong vai tro la nhan to trung gian ciia ca ba nhdm nhan to nay. Lim va cong su (2018) tim ra vai tro trung gian ciia thai do va nhan thiic nii ro trong moi quan he giiia tri thiic tai chinh va y dinh dau tu tai Malaysia. Nghien ciiu ciia (Ali, 2011a) ciing the hien moi quan he trung gian ciia thai do trong viec dau tu vao mgt co phieu nhat dinh.
Chudn chu quan/Chuan xa hoi (SN-Subjective Norms/Social Norms)
Theo (Ajzen, 1991), Chuan chii quan de cap den ap luc xa hgi ve vigc thuc hi?n hay khong thuc hif n hanh vi. (East, 1993) cho rang chuan chii quan dua tren niem tin noi bat, dugc_ggi la niem tin chuan muc ciia nhiing ngudi^ co tam quan trgng doi vdi ngudi dugc hoi nghi rang ngudi dugc hoi nen hay khong nen thuc hien hanh vi. Rat nhieu nghien ciiu da thay doi chuan chii quan thanh chuan xa hgi de phan anh tot hon tac dgng ciia xa hgi tdi hanh vi ciia ca nhan. Phan va cgng su (2019) da thiet ke mo hinh TPB md rgng gom tam cau tnic de tim ra cac nhan to tac dgng den y dinh sir d\mg the ngan hang qudc
khoa hoc _ 12 thifdngmai
tl cua khach hang y\^t Nam, nghien ciiu chi_ ra chudn chu _quan la yiu t l quan ttgng nhat anh huong true tilp din y djnh ciia khach hang vdi he so dudng din la 0,258. Ngugc lai, frong nghien ciiu ciia (Shanmugham va Ramya, 2012) va (Hemmnmgsih va cgng sir, 2018), chuan chu quan dugc cho la ySu tl ktiong CO tac dgng c6 y nghia trong viec^du doan hanh vi giao dich ciia cac nha dau tu ca nhan.
Nhdn thirc kiim sodt hdnh vi (Perceived Behavioral Control - PBC)
Theo (Ajzen, 1991), Nhan thiic kiem soat hanh vi mo ta cam nhan dl dang hay khd khan ciia mgt ca nhan khi thuc hien mgt hanh vi cu thi, nhan thiic kiem soat hanh vi bi anh hudng bdi su san cd ciia cac ca hgi hay nguon lire giiip dd ca nhan thuc hien hanh vi do. Nghien curu ciia_ (Madden va cgng su, 1992) cho thay rihan thiic kiem soat hanh vi la yeu t l quan trgng nhat de du doan y djnh hanh vi. (East, 1993) dua ra kit luan rang ban be, gia dinh va thong tin lien quan din Igi nhuan va bao mat ciia hoat dgng ddu tu cd tac dgng manh me nhat din quylt dinh dau tu cua cac nha dau tu ca nhan d Anh.
Kinh nghiem qud khu (Past Experiences - PE) Bagozzi va Kimmel (1995) ya Sutton va Hallett (1989) nhan thay rdng vdi viec bo sung nhan to Kinh nghiem qua khii, niiic giai thich ciia md hinh TPB doi vdi du doan ve y dinh thuc hien hanh vi cua khach hang dugc tang cuong hon. Nghien ciiu cua (East, 1993) ciing da bo sung them bien Kinh nghiem qua khii vao mo hinh TPB va nhan manh tac dgng true tiep ciia Kinh nghiem qua khii den y dinh hanh vi trong khi (Sheeran va cgng su, 2017) da tim thay tac dgng dao ngugc cua kinh nghiem qua khir doi vdi y dinh hanh vi. Theo Phan va cgng su (2019), nhiing khach hang trudc day da co kinh nghiSm, dac biet la kinh nghiem tiep xiic vdi mdi trudng quocte san sang chap nhan sii dung the ngan hang quoc te hem
Nhdn thirc rui ro (Perceived Risk - PR) Ben canh TPB, trong cac khuon man nghien ciiu ve hanh vi, dac biet la khuon mau TAM, khi khach hang tham gia vao mgt boat dgng hoac mua hang, sit dung dich vu co tinh mdi la, nhan to rat quan trgng tac dgng tdi y dinh hanh vi la nhan thiic ve nii ro.
Nghien cuu ciia (Finucane, 2002) ap dung khai niem nhan thiic nii ro tir nghien ciiu ve cong ngh?
mdi sang nhan thiic riii ro trong dau h: chiing khoan.
Nghien ciin nay niQ ta each nha dau tu co thi bi tac dong bdi cac chieu ciia rui ro va dua ra mgt si ggi y de cai thien danh muc dau tu sii dung phuong phap tiep can da chiSu, dinh tinh. (AUeyne, 2011) ben canh viec sii dung mo hinh truyen thing TPB da kit
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KISH Tfe' vA q;UAK I,T
hgp nhan to cMp thuan rui ro de du bao hanh yi dau tu vao san phdm ttrong lai. Trong cac nhan t l co y nglua giai ^ich y dinh dau tu, nhan to nii ro ddng vai tro quan trgng.
Lai va Tam (2012) nghien ciiu each cac nha dau tu chuyen nghiep nhan thiic va phan ling vdi nii ro ddu tu. Ket qua nghiSn cuu cho thay trinh dd hgc thiic cang cao dan tdi miic do ne tranh riii ro cang thdp, va thu nhap cang cao thi cd miic do tu tin cang thdp trong viec chdp nhan nii ro. Khitoliya (2014) danh gia muc do nhan thiic nii ro cua nha dau tu ap dung vao boi canh cac quy tirong hd d Dehli va dua ra nhimg phan tich ve miic do nhan thiic rui ro va mli quan he vdi_quyet dinh dau tu vao quy tuong ho ciia nha dau tu An Do.
Theo (Trang va Tho, 2017), nhan thiic rui ro cd tic dfing true tiep ya cung chieu tdi ket qua dau tir va y dinh tham gia dau tu. Vdi viec sd dung nghien ciiu bang hoi ket hgp vdi phdng van sau, ket qua nghien curu cho thay nhan thiic nii ro tac dgng tdi ca hai nhan tl tren va ket qua co y nghia thong ke. Tap trung vao moi quan h§ phiic t^-p cila qua trinh ra quyet dinh tai chinh, Lun va cgng su (2018) danh gia tac dgng cua tri thiic tai chmh tdi y dinh dau tu tai Malaysia, su di^g thai do va nhan thiic nil ro lam bien trung gian.
Kit qua nghien ciiu cho thay tac dgng trung gian manh cua nhan thiic dau tu va thai dp cho moi quan he giiia tri thiic tai chinh va y dinh dau tu. Akhtar va Das (2019) ap dung khuon khd TPB dl danh gia y dinh dau tu cua nhimg nha dau tu ca nhan tiem nang a An Do. Nghien ciiu nay md rgng them TPB vdi cac nhan t6 tri thiie tai chinh va dac diem ca nhan (bao gom su chap thuan nii ro va uu tien doi mdi). Ket qua ciia nghien ciiu cho thay nhan to thai do dong vai tro trung gian mgt phan doi vdi moi quan he giiia tri thiic tai chinh va y dinh dau tu, trong khi dd nang lire tai chinh dong vai tro kep trong quan he giua dac diem ca nhan va y dinh dau tu.
Thong hieu tai chinh (Financial Literacy - LIT) Th6ng hieu tai chuih, dugc the hien thong qua miic thong hieu tai chinh khach quan, la cham diem th6ng hieu tai chinh bang cac bai kiem tra tieu chuan va miic thong hieu tai chinh chii quan, la cham diem thong hieu tai chinh bang viSc tu danh gia miic dg hieu biet ciia minh vdi mgt he thong cac bien so tai chinh. Day ciing la mgt nhSn to quan trgng quyet diiih tdi hanh vi lien guan tdi tai chinh, dau tu dugc khang dinh trong nhieu nghien ciiu.
Ai -Tamimi (2009) danh gia miic do thong hieu tai chinh ciia cac nha dau tu ca nhan UAE tren thi trudng tai chirih ngi dia, cung vol do la moi quan he giua thong hieu tai chinh va cac nhan to khac vdi
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quyet dinh dau tu. Kit qua nghien ciiu cho thdy muc dO thong hieu tai chinh khac nhilu so vdi miic cdn thiet va moi quan he giiia thong hiiu tai chinh va quyet dinh dau tu cd y; nghia thing ke. Theo (Bhushan, 2014) thdng hiiu tai chinh giiip nha ddu tu ca nhan xii ly thong tin tai chinh va ra quylt dinh chinh xac hon. Nghien ciiu nay tap trung vao mli quan he giira thong hiiu tai chinh va nhan thiic dli vdi cac san pham tai chinh cua nha ddu tu ca nhan.
Cling vdi do la mli quan h? giua thong hiiu tai chinh vahanh vi ddu tu cuahg. Kit qua nghien cuu cho thay miic do thQng hieu tai chinh cua ca nhan tac dgng tdi nhan thiic clang nhu lua chgn ddu tu ciia hg.
Glaser va Walther (2014) lap lu^n ring hanh vi ciia nhiing ca nhan co miic do thong hiiu tai chmh cao cd the phu thugc_ vao he thong suy nghi: tru'c giac va nhan thiic. Ket qua nghien ciiu khang dinh gia thuyet neu nha dau tu vao thi trudng tai chinh cd xu hudng tin tudng^ nhieu vao cam giac ciia minh, vai tro ciia thong hieu tai chinh se hi yeu di khi nha dau tu do dua ra quyet dinh ciia minh. Nghien ciiu cua Aren va Aydemir (2015) danh gia tac dong cCia cac nhan to tdi y djnh dau tu, trong do not bat la nhan td ne nii ro, ben canh do nghien ciiu ciing danh gia tac dgng dieu tiet ciia thong hieu tai chinh tdi mli quan he giiia cac nhSntd do va y dinh dau tu.
Ket qua nghien ciiu cho thay nhin chung nil ro^ co quan he ngugc chiSu vdi y djnh dau tu. Cd cac bang chiing cho tMy thdng hieu tai chinh dong vai tro dilu tilt mli quan he nay. Aren va Zengin (2016) xac dinh cac nhan td tac dgng tdi lira chon^ ddu tu cua cac nha dau tu ca nhan. Yeu td dac diera tinh each khong cd tac dong, nhung nhan thiic vl nii ro va miic do thdng hieu tai chinh co tac dong tdi lira chgn ddu tu. Ben canh do, miic do nhan thiic ve nii ro CO chiu tac dgng cua thong hieu tai chinh.
Sivaramakrishnan ya cgng su (2017) nghien ciiu tac dgng ciia thong hieu tai chinh tdi hanh vi va y dinh ddu tu vao thi trudng chiing khoan An Do. Sii d\mg khuon mlu TPB va nghien ciiu theo _phuong phap dieu tt-a dinh lugng, nghien ciiu cho thdy thong hiiu tai chinh thuc tl va thdng hiiu tai chinh chii quan dIu cd tac dgng tdi hanh vi dau tu ciia nha dau lir chiing khoan. Tuy nhien, chi co thong hiiu tai chinh khach quan mdi co tac dgng tdi hanh vi dau tu thuc tl, nghien ciiu nay cung chi ra moi quan he ngugc chieu giua su giau co va y dinh dau tu.
Nghien ciiu ciia (Chu va cgng su, 2017) danh gia tac dgng tilm tang cua thong hieu tai chinh len sir lira chgn danh muc ddu tu va Igi sudt ddu tu ciia hg gia dinh. Kit qua nghien ciiu cho thdy nhiing gia dinh cd miic thdng hiiu tai chinh cao hem thudng cd xu
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^ K B S H Tfe' VA ftuAjglX
hudng ddu tu thong qua chuyen gia va quy dau tu.
Tuy nhien, nhung gia dmh co xu hudng tu tin thai qua thudng muln tu dau tu va chi giir mgt co phieu duy nhdt. Kit qua nghien cini cung ggi y mli quan he ciing chilu giua thdng hieu tai chinh va thu nhap.
Hsiao va Tsai (2018) chi ra tdm quan hgng cua thi trudng phai sinh doi vdi cac thi trudng mdi ndi.
Tuy nhien, nghien ciiu cung chi ra thi trudng phai sinh dugc coi la phiic tap de cac nha dau tuca nhan vdi miic do tri thiic tai chinh cdn han chi co the tham gia. Nghiep ciiu da xac dinh anh hudng ciia tri thiic tai chinh dli vdi y dinh tham gia vao tW tmdng phai sinh cua cac nha dau tu ca nhan d Dai Loan.
Nghien ciiu nay cho thdy nha dau tu vdi su am hieu kien thiic tai chinh cao hon se giam dugc cac rao can gia nhap, va do dd san sang tham gia vao thi trudng phai sinh hon.
Thu nhdp vdcdc biin nhdn khau hoc khac Ben canh biln nhan khau hgc nhan dugc nhieu quan tam nghien ciiu la thdng hjeu tai chmh, cac biln nhSn khdu hgc khac, dac biet la thu nhap ciing CO thi CO tac dgng tdi y dinh va hanh vi dau tu ciia nhiing nha dau tu ca nhan.
Hallahan va cgng su (2003) nghien curu mdi quan he giiia miic chap thuan rid ro chii quan va mgt loat cac dac diein nhan khau hgc gom co gidi tinh, tuoi, thu iihap, tdng tai san de danh gia thai do doi vdi nii ro cua nha dau tu. Ket qua nghien ciiu cho thdy CO mli quan he phi tuyen giiia thu nhap va rairc chap thuan nii ro trong toan mau nghien ciiu.
Nghien ciiu tilp theo cua (Hallahan ya cgng sir, 2004) sir d^ng co sd dii lieu ve diem chap thuan rui ro (RTS) dl danh gia moi tuong quan vdi cac dac dilm nhan khau hgc. K6t qua cho thay diem RTS c6 mil quan he thuan chieu vdi gidi tinh, tuoi, lugng ngudi phu thugc, tinh trang hon nhan, thu nhap va tong tai san. Ket qua nay cho thay ham y ve ca ban con ngudi san sang thuc hien nhung khoan dau tu co do nii ro cao han khi thu nhap cao hon. Ng va cgng su (2011) phan tich tac dgng cua cac yen to nhan khau hgc va kinh nghiem dau tu ddi vdi y dinh len k6 hoach huu tri. Ket qua nghien ciiu cho thaytinh trang hon nhan, tuoi va miic thu nhap co tac dgng tdi y dinh hanh vi. Mgt nhan to khac co miic y nghia quan trgng la kinh nghiem dau tu trong qua khii.
Jain va Mandot (2012) tim ra moi quan he cung chieu giiia thu nhap va kha nang chiu nii ro. Nghien ciiu nay ham y ngudi cd thu nhap cang cao thi co kha nang chap thuan nii ro cang Idn trong cac khoan ddu tu. Arianti (2018) do ludng tac dgng cua thdng hiiu tai chinh, hanh vi tai chinh va thu nhap tdi quyet dmh dau tu. Sir dung dii lieu sa cap, nghien ciiu nay
khoa hoc . 14 thifdngmai'
khong cho thdy tac ddng dang kl ciia thong hieu tai chinh tdi quylt dinh ddu tu, nhung hanh vi tai chinh va thu nhap thi co tac ddng dang ke tdi quyet dinh ddu tu. Theo nghien ciiu ciia (Herawati va Dewi, 2020), thi he thien nien ky chua tham gia manh ine vao hoat dgng ddu tu. Nghien ciiu nay tap trung vao tac dong cua cac bien nhan khau hgc gom thong hieu tai chinh, gidi tmh va thu nhap tdi y djnh dau tu ciia thi he thien nien ky. Kit qua cho thdy hai bien thdng hiiu tai chinh va thu nhap eg mli quan he cung chilu va CO y nghia tdi y dinh ddu tu. Trong khi^ do, gidi tinh khong cd tac ddng rd rang tdi y dinh dau tu.
3. Dir U^u va phwong phap nghien ciru 3.1. Phuong phdp nghien cAu
Nghien cim sir dung phuong phap dieu tra bang hoi, trong dd, bang cau hoi se dugc thiet ke dua tren viec ap dung phuang phap va cac cau tnic truyen thing tir lihung mo hinh nghien ciiru ve y dinh hanh vi noi bat, cu the la md hinh TPB dua tren cac dac dilm cua thi trudng phai sinh Viet Nam, tac gia dS xudt them ba nhan to mdi, la PR, PE va LIT. Bang cau hoi dugc thilt ke theo thang do Likert 7 cap dg.
Tac gia sii dung phuang phap PLS-SEM nhim tra Idi cau hdi ve tac dgng ciia tung nhan to, hieu img trung gian ciia cac nhan to tuyen giiia, ya de phan tach dugc tac dgng rieng le va tap dgng tong the cua cac nhan to tuyen dau tdi nhan to phu thugc d tuyen cuoi. Nghien ciiu su dung phuong phap phan tich the he hai Md hinh phuang trinh cau true binh phuang tii thieu tiing phan PLS-SEM (Hair Jr va cgng su,_2016) la md hinh hien nay dang dugc sii dung pho bien tren the gidi nhung chua pho bien d Viet Nam. Nham danh gia su khac biet trong nhan t6 cua cac phan nhom, cu the d day la thu nhap, tac gia sir dung phuong phap nghien ciiu PLS-MGA (Phan tich da nhom Binh phuong toi thieu tiing phan) cho hai phan nhdm thu nhap cao va thu nhap thap.
3.2. Die lieu nghien cihi
Nghien cum dua tren dii lieu so cap thu thap tii cac phieu dieu tra dugc phan phoi cho d6i tagng la nha dau tu tiem nang tren dia ban thanh pho Ha Ngi va thanh pho Hd Chi Minh, dii liSu dugc thu thap tu cac trudng dai hgc Idn, cac cong ty chiing khoan va UBCKNN. Phuang phap thu thap du lieu la phuang phap thu thap thuan tien vi ddi tucmg nghien ciiu hudng tdi la tat ca cac nha dau tu va nha dau tu tiSm nang doi vdi san pham tuong lai, vi ly do day la mfit san pham mdi trien khai, so lugng nha dau tu con nhd va khong de tiep can. Ben canh do, viec nghien cim ve y dinii hanh vi ciing la phu hgp nhat vdi cac nha dau tu tiem nang tiic la chua that su ddu tu ma mdi chi co y dinh dau tu.
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SDSH i ^ TA qpiis vt
Dua tren ket qua thu ve va dieu chinh loai bd ting cgng 07 chi bao khong phii hgp sau khi tiln hanh khao sat so bg thong qua viec danh gia cac tieu chi ve dp tui cay va phu hgp ciia thang do bang phan mim SmarffLS 3.2.9, cac khao sat chinh thiic da dugc giri den nhiing ngudi tham gia tra Idi. Tat ca kit qua khao sat true tuyen thu v6 d6u hgp le ya mgt si khao sat ban giay da bi loai bd do tra Idi thieu, ket qua tong cgng thu ve dugc 486 cSu tra lai hgp le.
Bing 1 hien thi cac dac diem_ nhan khau hgc cua ngudi tham gia tra Idi. Trong sd 486 ngudi tham gia tra Idi, c6 hon 59%. ngudi la nii va gan 41 % la nam, khoang 58% so ngudi dugc hoi la sinh viSn, phan anh thuc tl ring cac ffudng dai hgc dugc dua vao nhu mgt trong nhiing dia diem thu thap du lieu chinh. Nhan vien van phong va nhiing ngudi lam c6ng viec chuyen mdn nhu giao vi8n, bac sy, luat sir... chiSm tdi 41% sd ngudi dugc hoi va phan cdn lai la nhung ngudi lam viec tu do hoac ngi trg. Do tuli ciia ngudi tham gia khao sat phii hop vdi dac diem cong viec, vdi ty le gan 58% d do tuoi 18-22, va hon 33% ngudi tra Idi d dg tuoi 23-40. Cd khoang 45% sd ngudi dugc hoi cd thu nhap dudi 5 tri?u dong mgt thang, hdu hit rai vao nhdm sinh viSn. Co 26 nha dau tu chiing khoan phai sinh tham gia tra Idi, chiem ty le 5%.
Bang 2 mo ta each thiic ma hda cac biSn va chi bao trong nghien ciiu;
Bang 2; Md hoa biin tiem an vd chi bao
quan citng chiiu vai Y dinh ddu tu chung khodn phdi sinh
- Gid thuyet H5:^
H5a: Thong hiiu tdi chinh co tuang quan cung chieu voi Y dinh ddu^ tu chung khodn phdi sinh
H5b: Thai do dieu tiit trung gian quan hi giUa Thong hiiu tdi chinh vd Y dinh ddu tu chicng khodn phdi sinh
Bang 1; Chi tiiu nhdn khdu hoc cua mdu Chi ti6u nhan khdu hpc
Nghe nghiep Nhan vien van phong Nguoi lam cong viec chuyen mon Kj]ih doan]! tu do va nganli nglie khac
Thu nhap Tu 5 den dirdi 10 nieu
So l i r o n e T;^ I f
Bi^n tiem a Tir 10 den diroi 20 Irieii
INT1.INT2, INT3
ATT1,ATT2,ATT3 Bang dau ttr chirng khoan phai sinh Nhjn thtfc kiem soat hanh v PBCl, PBC2, PBC3
SN1.SN2. SN3 PRl, PR2, PR3 Kmh nghi£m q u i khii
Thong hieii tai chinh
Nguon: Tong hgp ciia tdc gid 3.3. Gid thuyet vd md hinh nghien ciru Dua tr8n tong guan cac ngi dung nghien ciiu, dS tai dua ra cac gia thiet ve mdi tucmg quan giiia cac bien phu fliugc va bien doc lap trong mo hinh nhu sau:
; Gid thuyit HI: Thdi do co ticang quan ciing chieu vai Y dinh ddu tu chung khodn phdi sinh
- Gid thuyet H2: Nhdn thuc kiim sodt hdnh vi co ticang quan ciing chieu vai Y dinh ddu tu chung khodn phdi sinh
- Gid thuyet H3: Chudn xd hgi c6 tucmg quan ciing chieu vai_ Ydinh ddu tu chung khodn phdi sinh
- Gid thuyet H4: Kinh nghiem qud khir co tuang
Nguon: Tong hgp ciia lac gid - Gid thuyet H6:
H6a. Nhgn thuc rdi ro co tuong quan ngugc chiiu vai t dinh dau tu chiing khodn phdi sinh
H6b: Thdi dp diiu tiit trung gian quan hi giOa Nhan thiic rui rovdY dinh ddu tu chung kliodn phdi sinh
- Gid thuyit H7: Thu nhdp khac nhau ddn tai sic khac nhau trong nhdn to tdc dgng toi y dinh ddu tu chicng khodn phdi sinh
Tren ca sd nhihig gia thuyet nghien ciru da dua ra, bai viit nay dk xudt mo hmh nghien ciiu nhu hinh I:
- 4. Ket qua mo hinh su dung phuong phap PLS-SEM
4.1. Kit qud thudt todn PLS
Tir md hinh nghien ciru de xuat, tac gia tien hanh kilm dinh md hinh PLS-SEM. Hinh 2 md ta ket qua
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cdu, nghia la tdt ca cac chi bao diu hgi ^ , co moi tuang quan cao d6 giai thich biSn tiem an. He so phuang sai trich trung binh AVE dku cao han 0.5,
" nhu duoc dS xudt bdi (Hair va cdng su, 2019).
J?_. _ - Kit qud kiim dinh HTMT cho Gid tri phdn bi?t
°^ (Discriminant Validity)
Tieu chi danh gia tikp theo cho tuih hop le ciia mo hinh la kilm dinh do phan biet cua dir lieu. Gii
\n phan biet la muc dg ma cac yeu td khac bi?t vai nhau va khong tuong quan vdi nhau. Gia tri phan biet CO thg dugc kilm dinh bdng nhieu phuang phap - - nhu he s6 tai cheo, hg so Fomell-Larcker. Trong
""- - nghien ciiu nay, tac gia sii dung he so Heterotrait- Monohrait (HTMT) ciia (Henseler vk cdng su, 2015). Gia tri HTMT qua cao din den vdn de la bifin tidm dn dugc giai_ thich tot hem bdi nhiing chi bao Nguon: Tong hgp cua tdc gid tic phdn mem thanh phdn eua bien tiem an khac chu khong phai la
" nhiing chi bao cua chinh nd. Noi mgt each khac, neu HTMT qua cao, chi bao cua bien tiem dn nay lai giai SmartPLS 3.2.9
Hinh 1: Md hinh nghien cuu di xudt trich xuat tir thuat toan PLS, sir dung phan mSm Smart PLS 3.2.9:
Sau khi tiSn hanh kiem dinh so hp mo hinh dS xudt bdng thuat toan PLS, kit qua cho thay he so tai cua tat ca cac chi bao deu Idn hon 0.706, co nghia la du dieu kiSn de chdp nhan tat_ ca pac nhan to bao gdm chi bao va biln tiem an ciia mo hmh theo (Hair . va cgng su, 2019). Voi ket qua nay, md hinh dii dieu kien de tiep tuc phan tich va kilm dinhcac tieu chi ve tinh phii hgp.
4.2. Kit qud kiem dinh mo hinh - Kit qud kiim dinh Do tin cay vd Do hgp le cua cdc nhom biin
De dam bao dg tin cay va hgp le ciia cac nhom bien thi gia tri do tin cay tdng hgp CR-Composite Reliability phai Idn hon 0.7 va he sd phuang sai trich AVE phai Idn hon 0.5 de dam bao gia tri hgi tu {Convergent Validity). N6u gia tri hgi tu khong thoa man, do bien quan sat khong co tuong - quan vdi nhiing bien khac trong cung — ^ nhan to, nghia labien tiem aii khong dugc giai thich tdt bdi cac biSn quan sat cua nd.
Bang 3 cung cap them bang chiing vl dg tm cay ddng nhat cua md hinh, vdi cac gia tn dg tin cay tdng hgp CR dIu Idn han so vdi 0.7, nhu (Hair va cgng su, 2019) da chi ra. Rieng bien LIT vi chi CO 1 chi bao (Indicator) nen cac gia tri do tin cay deu bang 1. Gia tri hgi tu ciia mo hinh ciing dat yeu
p^
_2"_ "i \_
,.^.-.-.Yc-H#»
Nguon: Tong hgp cua lac gid tic phdn mim SmartPLS 3.2.9 Hinh 2: Kit qud thudt todn PLS
3: Ket qud kiim dinh Do tin cay vd Do hgp le cua cdc nhom biin Bien Hem an
A T T I N T L I T P B C P E P R SN
C r o n b a c h ' s A l p h a 0.773 0.840 1.000 0.718 0.805 0.823 0.802
r h o A 0.836 0.852 1.000 0.780 0.820 0.883 0.836
C R 0.869 0.904 1.000 0.841 0.885 0.894 0.882
AVE 0.689 0.759 1.000 0.640 0.719 0.739 0.7 IS Nguon: Tong hap ciia tdc gid tit phdn mem SmartPLS 3.2.9
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thich cho biln tiem dn khac._ E)8 dam bao gia tri phan biln trong mo hinh dIu cd y nghia th6ng ke. Kilm biet, HTMT-edn <0.85. Tat ca cac gia tri HTMT dinh nay cho thdy trong s6 cac gia thuyet dugc dua trong Bang 4 dIu dat kit qua dudi 0.85, dap ling ra, gia thuyit H3 va H5b khong dugc chdp nhan.
ngudng tdi da ciia tieu chi nay. - Kit qud thuat todn PLS-MGA Bang 4.- Kit qud kiem dinh HTMT cho Gid tri phdn biet
Bi^n tiem Sn ATT INT LIT PBC PE PR SN
ATT
0.S86 0.109 0.362 0.178 0.435 0.134
INT
0.076 0.765 0.537 0.445 0.283
LIT
0.040 0.093 0.364 0.035
PBC
0.448 0.396 0.163
PE
0,307 0.458
PR
0.120 Nguon: Tong hgp cua tdc gid tic phdn mem SmartPLS 3.2.9
Bang 5.- Hi so phong dai phuang sai VIF Be kiem dinh gia thuyet H7, bai viet thuc hien thuat toan PLS-MGA (Hair Jr va cgng sir, 2016), dl kilm dinh su khac biet CO y nghia th6ng ke giira hai_ nhdm ddi tugng cd dac diem nhan khau hgc Thu nhap khac nhau. Trong do, nhiing ngudi CO thu nhap thuoc nhdm thu nhap thap cd thu nhap dudi 20 trieu va nhii'ng ngudi CO thu nhap_ cao co thu nhap tren 20 triSu trd len,_ Ket qua thuat toan PLS- MGA dugc the hien trong bang 7 cho thay cd su khac biet cd y nghia thong ke giira hai nhom thu nhap cao va thu nhap - Kit qud kiem dinh da cgng tuyen giua cdc biin
tiem dn cho mo hinh cdu true
Da cgng tuyen la hien tugng xay ra khi cac bien tiem an cd tucmg quan chat che vdi nhau. Dieu nay lam cho he sd R2 va cac he so hdi quy gap phai sai l?ch trong udc lugng. De kiem dinh hi^n tugng da cgng tuyen, he so phdng dtii phuong sai VIF dugc sii dung, Neu he so phong dai phuong sai VIF > 2 thi cd dau hieu da cgng tuyen, neu VIF > 10 thi chac chan CO da cgng tuyen con neu VTF <2 thi mo hinh khong bi da cgng tuyen, theo (Hair Jr va cgng su, 2016).
Ket qua tir bang 5 cho thay md hinh khong gap Ngudn: Tdng hgp cua tdc gid tic phdn mim hien tugng da cgng tuyin do he sd phdng dz\ SmartPLS 3.2.9
phirong sai cua tdt ca cac biln Bang 6; KJt aud thuat todn Bootsrap tiem an deu nho han 2, Ion nhat
Bien tiem an A T T INT LIT PBC PE PR SN
A T T
1.129
1.129 INT
1.218 1.160 1.273 1.355 1.440 1.183
ATT -> INT LIT^ ATT LIT -> INT PBC -> INT PE->INT PR-5-ATT PR -> INT chi bang 1.44
- Kit qud kiem dinh mice y nghia thong qua thudt todn Bootstrap
Trong trien khai thuat toan PLS-SEM, thuat toan Bootstrap dirge sii dung d8 xac dinh miic y nghia thong ke trong quan hegiua cac bien tiem an. Theo dd, neu h%
so t-value ciia thulit toan Bootstrap cho kit qua Idn han 1.96 se tucmg ling vdigia tri a = 0.05, va nhu vay moi quan he
giua hai biln tilm an dugc coi la cd y nghia thdng ke tai miic 5%. Bang 6 dudi day trinh bay ket qua ciia thuat toan Bootstrap.
Phuong phap Bootstrap cho thay tdt ca gia tri t- value dIu cao hem so vdi 1.96, trii LIT^ATT (t- values CO gia ti-j 0.578) va SN-*INT (t-values cd gia tri 1.4), khing dinh rdng gdn nhu tat ca cac
S.\' •> INT Original Sample
Sample Mean
Standard
Deviation T Statistics P-Valucs
Nguon: Tdng hgp cua tdc gid tit phdn mim SmartPLS 3.2.9 trong mdi quan he LIT^INT, PBC-*INT va PR- INT. Dilu nay thi hien dac diem nhan khau hgc thu nhap thuc su co tac dgng tdi cac moi quan he giai thich y dinh ddu tu chiing khoan phai sinh.
5. Thao luan kit qua nghien ciiu Su dung mb hinh kit hgp TPB md rgng, vdi su tich hgp ciia cac nhan t6 dac trung, nghien ciiu nay
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ATT-> INT LIT -> ATT LIT -> INT PBC -> INT PE -> INT PR -> ATT P R - > I N T SN -> INT
Path Coefficienls-diff (high - low)
-0.02 0.513 0.255 -0.212 -0.013 0.146 -0.218 -0.014
p-Value original I- tailed (higli vs low)
0.618 0 0.998 0.568 0.051 0.996 0.578
p-Value new (high vs low) 0.765 0.001 0.003 0.864 0.103 0.009 0.844
da dua ra bdng ehimg cho su phu hgp_ cua cac gia nghiern trong ITnh vuc tai chinh ngan hang se co y thuyit dl xudt, Tdt ca cac bien tiem an trong mo dinh dau tu chiing ichoan phai sinh rd rang hon.
Bang 7: Kit qud thudt todn PLS-MGA . , . BiSn tijm in ™ n g lii|u
*— ^ tai chinh co muc tac dgng thap tdi y dinh ddu tu d miic 0.073, tuy nhientac dgng nay la c6 y nghia th6ng ke, ling hq gia thuyit H5a. Biln thdng hieu tai chinh trong nghien ciiu nay chi bao gIm thdng hieu tai chinh chii dgng va chi dugc do bang mgt chi bao duy nhat nen ket qua nay la chap nhan dugc. Ket qua nay dem lai ham y nghien ciiu ve viec^can nang cao miic do thdng hieu tai chinh de tang cudng y dinh dau tu chiing khoan phai sinh d cac nha dau tu ca nhan tiem nang.
Mgt diem dang chii y la Nh3n thiic vl riiii ro, m^t trong cac nhan to mdi dugc dua vao md hinh, cp tac dgng ngugc chieu len y dinh dau tu vdi he so tac dgng la -0.101, nhung do tac dgng gian tiep thong qua viec tac dgng den nhan td Thai dg cua nha dau tunen tong tac dgng la-0.112. Ket qua nay cho thay gia thuyit H6a va H6b la phu hgp. Tr8n thuc tl, khi dau tu vao san pham cd tinh nii ro cao nhu phai sinh, nhan thiic ve nii ro cua nha dau tu se cd tac dgng ngugc chieu len y djnh dau tu ciia hg. Ket qua nay cimg dan den ngu y chinh sach thdng nhat la nha dau tir can dugc dao tao de co nhan thirc diing dan hon venii ro khi dau tu chirng khoan phai sinh, tir do co the dua ra lira chgn phii hgp vdi minh.
Cuoi cung, phuang phap PLS-MGA cho thay tac dgng ciia yen td nhan khau hgc len ket qua nghien ciiu, cu the d day la nhan td Thu nhap, Nhung ngudi CO thu nhap cao co tac dgng tir ThQng hieu tai chinh —* Y dinh dau tu manh han, nhung lai co tac ddng tir Nhan thirc kiem soat hanh vi —> Y dinh yeu hon. Ket qua nay the hi$n nhiing ngudi thu nhap cao CO su phan hoa rd ret trong tac ddng cua thong hieu tai_ chinh, con nhiing ngudi thugc nliom thu nhap thap hon (chii yeu la sinh vien) khong cd sir phan hoa ro ret trong miic do thdng hieu tai chinh, dan den he sd dudng dan Thong hieu tai chinh —* Y dinh dau tu la kem d nhdm nhan khau hgc nay. Ben canh do, nhan td Nhan thiic kiem soat hanh vi ciia nhom thu nhap thap tac dgng manh han tdi Y dinh, thi hien dau hieu cho thay miic dg tu tin thai qua cua nhdm nay manh han nhiing ngudi co thu nhap cao, la nhiing ngudi da thuc su quan ly tai chinh cua minh va cd nhieu kinh nghiem han, do vay hg cd su kiem che cam xuc tdt han trong y dinh dau tu.
Nguon: Tong hgp cua tdc gid tit phdn mim SmartPLS 3.2.9 hinh, tru bien Chudn xa h§i deu co tac dgng tr\rc tiep va CO y nghia thdng ke den y dinh dau tu chiing khoan phai sinh tai Viet Nam vdi kha nang giai thich cua mohinh la 54.3%. Trong sd cac nhan to co tac dgng dSn y dirih dau tu chiing khoan phai smh, bi6n Nhan thirc kiem soat hanh vi cotac dgng true tiep manh nhat den bien phu thugc Y djnh vdi he so dudng dan la 0.419, khang dinh gia_thuyet_H2, ket qua nay phan anh thuc te rang nha dau tu tiem nang chiu anh hudng manh me tir nhan thiic ve kha nang kiem soat ket qua dau tu cua minh. Ket qua nay phan nao the hien sir tu tin thai qua ciia nha dau tu tai Viet Nam, thdng nhat vdi ket qua nghien ciiu ciia (Dzung Tran Trung va cong si;, 2020), (My va cgng sir, 2016).,
Nhan to Thai do c6 tac dgng true tiep va cung chieu den y dinh dau tu chiing khoan phai sinh, vdi gia tri cua he sd dudng dan (he so tac dSng) la 0.296, ling hg gia thuyet H3. Khdng chi ddng vai trd giai thich true tiep, nhan t5 thai do con dong yai tro trung gian giiia Nhan thiic nii ro va Y dinh dau tu, khang dinh gia thuyet H6b. Tuy nhien, gia thuyet _H5b:
Thai do dong vai 'trd trung gian giua Thdng hieu tai chinh va Y dinh dau tu khong dugc hd trg. Vai tro quan trgng ciia nhan to Thai do trong giai thich y dinh dau tu chiing khoan phai sinh d Viet Nam ca d true tiep va gdp phan gian tiep vdi Nhan thirc nii ro cho thay tam quan trgng trong thai do ciia nha dau tu ddi vdi phai sinh.
Ben canh do, Kinh nghigm qua khu cd tac ddng den Y dinh.vdi he sd dudng dan cd gia hi 0,2, hd trg gia thuyet H4. Kinh nghiem qua khu dugc khai thac trong nghien cim nay bao ham ca kinh nghiem tiep xiic vdi phai sinh va cac san pham tai chinh khac, nd the hien viec nhiing ngudi da timg co kinh
khoa hoc .
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6. Ket luSn
Nhin chung, kSt qua nghiSn ciiu cho thay, y dinh ddu tu chiing khoan phai sinh bi anh hudng bdi hdu hit cac yiu t6 trong mo hinh TPB md rgng CO dilu chinh, bao gdm cac nhan td: ATT, PBC, PE, PRj LIT. Trong do, ba nhan td cd tac ddng manh nhat la PBC, ATT va PE. Ben- canh viec dong vai tro giai thich true tiep, ATT cdn dong vai trd trung gian cho quan he giiia PR va INT. Ngoai ra, nghien ciru cung ti_m th^y b ^ g chimg ciia su_ khac bi8t trong yeu to nhan khau hgc tdi cac mdi quan he trong m6 hinh.
Nghien ciru da khang dinh kha nang^ ap dung khuon man TPB vao giai thich y dinh dau tu vao phai sinh d Viet Nam, ddng thdi gidi thieu mgt sd biln tiem an mdi, giiip ggi y de tiep tuc md rgng hudng nghien ciiu nay trong tucmg lai, vi du nhu do ludng LIT theo ca hai phuang phap, hay md rgng pham vi kiem dinh MGA va hau MGA. •
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Summary
In this paper, PLS-SEM method was apphed to assess the relationship between the initial determi- nants of theory of planned behavior including Attitude, Social Norms, Perceived Behavioral Control together with expanded variables of Past Experience, Perceived Risk, and Financial Literacy to explain derivatives investment intention in Vietnam. The paper also applies PLS-MGA method to test the effect of income demographic factor on the differences in the relationship between the hid- den determinants. The research outcomes reveal tiiat most of the determinants except Social norms have statistical impacts on the intention, and an MGA analysis shows that there is a statistical difference in the influence of financial literacy between high income and low income groups.
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