TAP CHi KHOA HOC TRL/ONG DAI HOC MOTP.HCM - SO 6 (39) 2014 43 5 3
RUI RO TRONG CAC DU^ AN XAY DlTNG CONG TRINH GIAO THONG Cf VIET NAM
Ngay nhan bai: 10/07/2014 Trinh Thiiy Anh^
NgaynhEinlEii: 18/08/2014 Ngay duyet dang: 09/09/2014
TOM TAT
Trong cdc du dn xdy dung cdng trinh giao thong, riii ro hit sire da dgng vd phirc tgp, ngodi ra chung co mdi quan he tdc ddng qua lgi. Bdi viit ndy nhdm xdy dung danh muc cdc logi rui ro trong cdc du dn xdy dung cong trinh giao thong & Viit Nam hien nay, dong th&i phdn tich moi quan he tdc dong qua lgi giiia cdc rui ro ndy. Phuang phdp phdn tich dinh iinh, thong ke mo td, vd phuang phdp phdn tich hi thdng dd duac dp dung trong nghiin ciru ndy. Xde dinh cdc logi rdi ro vd mdi quan he tdc dong qua lgi giita chung cd the giup ich cho cdc bin lien quan trong cong tdc qudn tri riii ro, cUng cd the diing ldm ca s& cho cdc nghien cuu chuyin sdu hon sau ndy.
Tir khda: rdi ro, phdn tich rui ro, qudn tri du dn. du dn xdy dung cdng trinh giao thdng.
ABSTRACT
Risks are diversified and complicated in transport construction projects. There are sequence and cumulative relations between the risks. This paper aims to provide a check list of the risks in its relation and scheme. Research study of the paper is qualitative analysis, description statistic, and system dynamic approach. The check list and sequence relations of risks which is investigated and built in the paper would be useful for risk management as well as futher study.
Keywords: risk, risk analysis, project management, transport construction project
1. Gidi thieu khac nhau tuy thuoc va tung dieu kien cu the.
Cac dir an xay dung cong trinh giao Xac dinh. danh gia cac riii ro trong du an thong luon co cac diem co ban nhu tinh chat xay dimg cong trinh giao thong 6 Viet Nam hit 6n dinh, tinh doc dao, chi phi dau tu Ion va hien nay la mpt viec lam can thiet, giup cac thoi gian dai, chiu anh hirong dieu kien tir ben lien quan co mot danh sach cac rui ro co nhien, doi hoi sir hgp tac cua nhieu ben lien kha nang xay ra. de tCr do co nhan thuc va quan. doi hoi ky thuat thi cong phuc tap,..: nhimg ke hoach phong chong va phan ung voi dfing thai su tac dong va cbi phoi ciia moi rui ro, ban che cac tac dpng cua riii ro mang lai tnrcmg kinb te - xa hpi - luat phap - van h6a da doi vdi cac dir an. Mat khac, cac rui ro trong d i n den kha n^ng xuat hien rui ro trong cac dir du an c6 moi lien quan den nhau. Vi vay an nay la khong the tranh khoi. Cac rui ro luon nghien cuu nay nham xay dung danh muc cac tiSm an trong moi giai doan cua du an, ke tir nii ro va nban dien moi quan he giiJa cbiing.
kbi xac djnh chu trucmg dau tu. chuan hi dau Phuang phap nghien cuu dinb tinh thong qua lu, cho den khi ket tbiic dira dir an vao khai phong van sau dirge thuc hien tai cac ben lien thac va sir dung. Chiing rat da dang va bien doi quan den du an bao gom cac chii dau tu, nha
' TS, Tmcmg D^i hoc Mo TP.HCM. Email:[email protected]
KINHTE
2. Cff Sff ly thuyet
Rui ro la nhung su kien hoac boat d6ng CO nguy CO gay ra nhiing ket qua lieu circ hoac nhirng k6l qua khong mong muon (Rowe, 1977), la sir k^t hop giua nhung moi nguy hai va tinh th^ nguy hiem (Chicken & ctg, 1998).
M6i nguy hai la didu gi do xay ra va co tac dong xau d^n cac boat dpng ciia to chuc, con tinh th§ nguy hiem la mgt moi truong doc lap vdi moi nguy hai va tao dieu kien cho moi nguy h?i do dien ra (Akintoye va MacLeod, 1997). Rili ro la kha nang nhirng yeu t6 Idiong dugc dir dodn truoc xay ra va tac dgng xau den ti^n dp hoan thanh cua dir an ve khia canh chi phi, thcri gian va cbSt lugng (Akintoye va MacLeod, 1997).
Viec xac dinh nJi ro trong cac du an xay dimg tiiy thuoc vao dieu kien cu the tai nai thuc hien du an. William (1994) da phan loai rui ro thanh: nii ro lien quan den sir kien, cac tac dpng, cac boat dgng va hgp dong. Perry va Hayes (1985). Mustafa va Al-Bahar (1991) da xac djnh dugc mpt so nguon gay ra nhirng nil ro trong cac dir an xay dung bao gom nhirng nii ro ve vat chat, moi truonng, thiet ke, giao van, tai chinh, luat phdp, chinh tri. xay dung va khai thac. Nhiing riii ro nay tac dpng toi ket qua thuc hien cac du an ca ve thod gian, chi phi va chat lugng.
Theo Conroy va Soltan (1998) thi du an CO the CO nhihig riii ro ve ngan sach. sir hai long ciia nha thau. sir hai long cua khach hang, tinh hieu qua ciia he thong quan tri du an, su hai long ciia dpi tham gia du an. su hai long ciia dgi du an.
Jaafari (2001) cho rang d6i vai cac du an Ion thi thucmg gap phai nhung nil ro v^ sir phat trien cua du an (du an co ihk hi ngung dau tu hoac bj tir bo), rui ro va tbi truang, riii ro ve chinb tri. riii ro ve ky thuat, nii ro vk tai chinh. rui ro ve moi trucmg. nii ro vk chi phi, rili ro ve tien dp. riii ro ve qua trinh boat dpng, nii ro vk co cau to chirc. nii ro bat kha khang.
Chapman (2001) xac dinh dugc 4 nhom nii ro la: moi truofng. nganh. khach hang va du an. Shen & ctg (2001) lai chia cac nii ro thanh
6 nhom dua vao ban chat ciia nil ro bao gom;
tai chinh, luat phap, quan hi, thi truang, chinh sach va chinh tri, ky thuat.
G^n day co nhieu nghien ciiu ve quan tri nil ro trong cac du an xay dimg dS dugc trien kbai tai chau A. Ket qua ciia cac nghien cihi nay tap trung chu yeu vao bai loai riii ro la nii ro lien quan tai cac muc lieu cua du an va riii ro lien quan tai cac giai doan cua du an (Zou
& ctg, 2007). Trong nghien ciiru ve riii ro ciia cac du an xay dung tai Trung Quoc, Zou & ctg (2007) da dua ra nhiing riii ro lien quan toi muc lieu ciia du an bao gom cac khia canh ve chi pbi, thai gian, chat lugng, dp an toan va moi truang ben viing.
Cac riii ro v6 chi phi vugt qua gioi ban bao gom: ngan sach chi phi khong chinh xac, dao dpng gia vSt lieu va nguon nguyen v^t lieu khong CO sEn, gia lao dgng va tbi truang lao dpng tang cao, va ng tir nha cung cap hoSc thau phu, thcri tiet thay doi. dao dgng ve lien te va lai suat, bat on chinh tri, tham nhung va khong quen thuoc vai luat pbap ciia dja phucmg (Kaming & ctg, 1997; Chen & ctg, 2004).
Nhiing nii ro ve thai gian cham tri ciia du an bao gom: xac dinh pbam vi du an khong chinh xac, du an phiic tap, lap k l hoach khong diy dii va phii hgp, thay d6i thiSt kk, du bao kb6i lugng kJ thuat khong chinh xac, dir bao vat lieu khong chinh xac, thi^u hut thiSt bi v^
vat lieu, nhieu hang muc keo dai thai gian, thieu hill rihan cong lanh nghi, nang su^t lao dpng tbSp, diSu kien thai tik khong th^ du bao truoc (Mulholland, 1999; Shen & ctg, 2001).
Nhung nii ro vk chit lugng du an bao gom: t h i a k^ khong phu hgp, thiSu thim tra thiet ke, cac van de ve quy thai gian, thieu dgi n^u thiet kk co kinb nghiem, giam thdi gian dau thiu, giam chi phi thiet kk, chat lugng thi cong khong dam bao, sir dung vat lieu khong dii lieu chuin, khong man theo tieu chuin ky thuat, qua trinh xay dumg khong phii hgp (Lee
& ctg, 2005).
Nhiing rui ro ve an loan cua du an bao gom: thiSu cac quy dinh vk bao hg va an loan, nhan thiic kem \k an toan ciia cac nha quan hi cap cao va quan tri du an. khong dam bao an
TAP CHl KHOA HOC TRUONG OAI HOC MO TP.HCM - SO 6 (39) 2014 45
loan cho cac nguon luc dau vao, thi6u dao lao, khong CO he thong bao cao va Iuu trii dii lieu ve tai nan lao dpng, van hanh au, lao dgng khong CO to cbiic. dieu kien cong truang kem, thieu khong gian, dieu kien thai tiet khic nghiet (Abdelbamid, 2000; Haslam va ctg, 2005).
Nhiing riii ro ve dam bao moi truang b^n viing cho dir an bao gom: moi truong true tiep nhu khoi bui, khi ga dgc hai, tieng on, chat thai ran, long; moi truang gian tiep bi anh huon^
boi du an vi du nbu trong qua trinh dao ho mong gSp phai vSt lieu doc hai ma khong co bien pbap dk bao ve (Chen & ctg, 2000).
Subramanyan (2012) xac dinh rui ro theo cac ben lien quan bao g6m: (1) chii diu tu: xac djnh pham vi du an khong thfch hgp, tram tri trong ban giao mat bang, khung hoang tai chinh, cham tre trong chinh sira va tham djnh bo so thiet ke, cham tri trong thanh toan, thay doi cua chu dau tu, thieu kha nang xac dinh cac cong viec trpng tam; (2) nha thau: nang luc yeu kem, cham tre ciia cac nha thau phu, kha nang thay doi cua cac nha thau phu, thieu kha nang linh boat; (3) tu van: kha nang thu tbap dii lieu phuc vu khao sat thiet ke ban che, thiSu kinh nghiem, thi^u sir linh boat, thiet ke khong kha thi, thiet ke thieu ro rang va khong phii hgp; (4) nha quan tri du an: nang Iuc ban che, thieu dgi ngia.
3. PhiTffng phap nghien cihi Tren ca sa Iy thuyet va cac nghien cuu trudc da>'. dac biet la cac nghien cinj thuc hien tai cac nudc chau A cd tinh tuong dong ve dieu kien tu nhien, kinh le, xa hpi vdi nudc ta, tac gia xac dinh khung nghien cuu xac dinh rui ro trong cac du an phan tbeo cac giai doan thuc bien du an. va trong timg giai doan thi nii ro lai dugc xem xet lien quan tdi cac yeu to moi trudng, ky thuat, nguon nhan lire, quan tri.
Bang cau boi phac thao dugc thiet ke bao gom cac cau boi de xac dinh danh muc rui ro trong cac du an xay dung cdng trinh giao thdng lien quan den cac ben: chu dau tu. nha thiu. va tu van. Dieu tra thi diem dugc thuc bien ddi vdi 5 nha thau, 2 Ban quan Iy du an va 2 cdng ly lu van de kiem tra tinh pbii hgp
ciia cac cau hoi. Sau khi cd cac thdng tin phan hdi tir cac doi tugng dieu tra thi diem, ban phdng van da dugc hoan chinb de tien hanh dieu tra chinh thiic.
Tac gia da liep can van phdng Bd Giao thdng van tai. Cue Giam dinh va Quan ly Chat lugng; thirc hien phdng van tai 4 ban quan Iy du an (BQLDAI, BQLDA5, BQLDA18, BQLDA Hd Chi Minh); 7 cong ty tu vin (cac cdng ty thugc TEDL Ciencol, Cienco8, VCCl va Cdng ty Tu van Thiet ke Dudng sat) va 22 cdng ty xay dung (tbudc Ciencol, CiencoS, Vinaconex, Tong Cong ty xay dung Thang Long...). Ddi vdi mdi don vi chi lira chgn mdt ngudi dai dien cd kinh nghiem boat dpng trong Hnh vuc tir 5 nam trd len. Thdi gian phdng van keo dai trung binh trong khoang 3 - 4 gid ddng hd. trong khoang thdi gian tir thang 10/2011 din thang 7/2013.
4. Danh muc cac rui ro trong dur an xay dung cong trinh giao thong d Viet Nam
Tdng hgp ket qua khao sat thuc te thdng qua phdng van sau cac chuyen gia cho thay xuat hien 91 loai nii ro khac i^au trong cac du an xay dung cdng trinh giao thong d Viet Nam hien nay. Bang 1 the hien cac riii ro nay xem xet tbeo cac giai doan ciia du an va dugc phan chia theo cac nguon gay rui ro.
Diem ciia nii ro ; do chuyen gia j cho dugc tinh tbeo cong thuc:
R,j =^ Xac suat xuat bien rui ro / * Miic do tac dpng cua nii ro /
Diem trung binh ciia nii ro dugc tinh bang each cpng diem ciia timg chuyen gia nhu sau:
R.-lR,j
Tren co sd diem ciia rui ro, tac gia xep hang cac nii ro theo mirc dp quan trgng. Cac riii ro nhu tieu cue trong xay dung ca ban. giai phdng mat bang cham. ca che xin cho, tinh trang ng dgng va khd khan tai chinh, va nang luc tai chinh nha thau la cac nii ro cd xkp bang cao nhat ve muc do tac ddng den du an.
KINH li
Bang 1. Cac riii ro ciia dir an xay dirng cong tiinh giao thong STT
ROOl R002 R003 R004 R005 R006 R007 R008 R009 ROlO ROll R012 ROI 3 R014 R015 R016 ROI 7 R0I8 R019 R020 R021 R022 R023 R024 R025 R026 R027 R028
Riii ro Giai doan chuan bj dir an Tiiigu thong tin trong xac djnh ngu6n von Thong tin sai lech UT)ng quy hoach. chinh sach vl mo Xac dinh pham vi dtr an khong phu hop/khong diy du Muc tieu du an khong dugc xac djnh ro rang Danh gia sai tinh cap thiet du an D3u tu tran ian
Xac dinh khung tieu chuan, quy mo dir an Idiong phu h(rp
Phan ky diiu tu. kl hoach chira phu hgp Thieu su ho trg tir nha tai trg Thay doi chu tnrong
Danh gia sai tinh kha thi, hieu qua dir an Thuyet minh dir an mang tinh hinh thirc Cong lac nghien cmi thj truang, dir bdo sai sot Thay doi the che
Lu^t van ban huong dan con chua r3 rang, phii hgp Khdo sdt dja hinh, thiiy van, dia chdt sai sot, keo dai Phdn tich moi tnrcmg khong hoan chinh hode sai sot Thiet ke eg so khong hodn chinh, sai sot, thieu chinh xac Cg che cho khau ldp du an vd thilt kS chira phii hgp Chii dau tu gap kho khdn, han che v^ v6n Thay doi tong mirc dau tu
Sai sol trong lap long du loan hode lich trinh Ihirc hien Ap lire giam long muc dau tu
Qua trinh cdp quyet dinh diu tu, thii tuc hanh chinh keo dai
Chu Uucmg ciia cap c6 tham quyen quySt dinh ddu hr Giai doan thuc hien duan
Khdo sal dja chit sai sot
Thiet ke so bo. thiel ke ky thuat. thiet kS ban ve thi cong sai
Con ton tai nhieu quy trinh quy pham vk thi§t k6
Nguon gSy riii ro
Lien quan den dir an Lien quan din dir an Lien quan d£n du an Lien quan den du an Lien quan den du an Chinh sach, quy djnh Lien quan den du an Chinh sdch, quy dinh Tai chinh Chinh sdch. quy djnh Lien quan den du an Lien quan den du an Lien quan din du an Chinh sach. quy dinh Chinh sach. quy dinh Khao sat thiet ke Khao sdt thiet ke Khao sdt thiet ke Khao sat thiet ke Tai chinh Tai chinh Tai chinh Tai chinh Chtnh sdch, quy dinh Chinh sdch, quy dinh Thiit ki Thiit ki
Thiet ke
Diem TB 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8 2.2 3.4 0.6 2.7 2.1 3.5 2.4 3.5 2 2.5 3.4 3.2 0.6 2.8 3.2 2.4 3.2 3.5 3.5 1.5 1.6
3.8 4.6 2.7
Xep bang
22 13
18 23 12 20 12 24 19 13 15 17 15 20 15 12 12 28 27 9 6 18
TAP CHI KHOA HOC TRUONG OAI HOC MO TP.HCM - SO 6 (39) 201^ 47
STT R029 R030 R031 R032 R033 R034 R035 R036 R037 R038 R039 R040 R041 R042 R043 R044 R045 R046 R047 R048 R049 R050 R051 R052 R053 R054 R055 R056 R057 ROSS
Riii ro
Phai bo sung them thiet ke do yeu cau tir chu dau tu, ca quan qudn ly nha nuoc
Ap luc gidm tien do, thiet ke eg so vpi, soat xet iihong kJ
Sai sot trong lap du toan
Dinh miic xay dung eg ban chua hoan chinh, con sai sot Tong miic dau tu, long du toan phai chinh sira nhieu lan Thdm dinh, phe duyet thiit ki, du todn keo dai. khd khan Y chi, chii nuong, quyin han ciia nguoi c6 tham quyin Thuc hien trinh tu quan ly dau tu khong tuan theo quy dinh
Giai phong mat bang
Ddu thdu khong cong bang, thong dong giiia cac nha thau
Bo thau gia qua thap de gianh hgp dong Trinh dp nguoi lap gid han chi
Tinh trang no dpng, thieu kha ndng chi tra, ach tdc von Ndng luc tai chinh ciia nha thau yeu
Co che xin cho
Quan he giOa nhd thdu vd ngan hang gap nhieu kho khan Chia nho goi thiu di giam nhe ganh nang
Lira chgn nhd thdu cung iing vat tu thiet bi khong phii hgp
Lua chpn nhd thiu tu van giarn sat khong phii hgp Diiu ki$n hgp dong khdng diy dii va phi] hgp Thgi gian hgp ding du kien khong phu hgp Thuy vdn, dia hinh, dia chat phuc tap, khong du kiin dugc
Diiu ki?n thiri tiet kho khdn Thay doi chii truong
Ap luc day nhanh tien dp hoan tat du an sum trugc ky han
Ndng luc nha thau kem
An toan khong dam bao ddn den tai nan tren cong trugng Nha thau hoac tu vin giam sat qua tai
Quy djnh tu van gidm sdt chua hgp Iy Mdy mdc trang thiit bi khong dam bdo
Nguon gay riii ro Thiet ke Thiet ke Thiit ki Thiet ke Thiet ke Thiet ke Thiet ke Thiet ke GPMB Dau thdu Dau thau Ddu thau Tai chinh Nang lire yeu Chinh sdch, quy dinh Tai chinh Dau thdu Diu thiu
£)au thau Nang lire cac ben Nang luc cac ben Moi trugng tu nhien Moi trugng tu nhiSn Chinh sach, quy dinh Chinh sach, quy dinh Nang luc cac ben Nang luc cac ben Nang luc cac ben Chinh sach quy dinh Ndng luc cac ben
Diem TB 3.3 2 2.4 2.4 3.8 2.3 1.8 1.1 7.1 4.6 3.3 1.7 6.3 5.9 6.5 3.6 3.6 1.1 0.5 1.6 1 0.9 4.1 4.1 3.7 3.8 0.2 1 2.9 2
Xip hang 14 24 20 20 9 21 25 32 2 6 14 26 4 5 3 11 11 32
27 33 34 7 7 10 9
32 16 24
KINHTf
STT R059 R060 R061 R062 R063 R064 R065 R066 R067 R068 R069 R070 R071 R072 R073 R074 R075 R076 RD77 R078 R079 R080 R081 R082 R083 R084 R085 R086 R087 ROSS
Riii ro
NEu6n lao dona thiiu, trinh dp thap, nhan vien kem Nguyen vdt lieu van chuyin chdm, kem chdt lugng Gid nguyen vdt lieu, lao dpng, may moc thiet bj thay doi Han chi viec dieu chinh gia
Cho phep dieu chinh gia
Diu tu may moc thiit bi cua nha thiu diu nr dan ffai Cong nghe thi cong ddc biet. thiit hi chuyen dmg Cong nghe .\ay dimg qua hien dai
Ldng phi thit thodt tai cong ntrong Tieu cue trong xay dung eg ban Doanh nghiep chay theo thdnh tich Lai suit ngan hang cao
Thay dii cac ben lien quan du dn, thay dii nhan su chu chot
Trinh dp va kinh nghiem cua nha quan ly du an ban che Trinh dp vd kinh nghiem ciia ban dieu hanh du an ban che
Thieu s\r quan ly, ho trg tir phia tren, tir cdc doi tac Quy trinh thuc hien quan ly du an chua phii hgp Dg dn qud nhay cdm voi dieu kien thay doi cua ngoai canh
0 nhiem moi truimg
Phdn iing tieu cue ciia cpng dong, tac dpng day chuyen Thieu hgp tac ciia eg quan dia phuong
Np dpng. kho khdn tdi chinh
Nhieu thil tuc trong qud Uinh thanh loan, rugm ra, keo ddi
Chua quan tam ho so hoan cong Thieu su phii hgp chdt che
Ke hoach thuc hien, chi phi, thiri han ban giao khong ro Giai do^n ket thuc du an
Cong tac quan ly yiu kem
Chien lirgc. quy hoach tong thi chua phii hgp, diu tu khong dong b6
Cong Uinh khong dugc khai thac ding bp, giam hieu qua Quan K thu phi kem hieu qua
Nguin gSy rui ro Nang luc cac ben Moi truang kinh t6 Moi trucmg kinh te Chinh sdch, quy dinh Chinh sach, quy djnh Nang luc cac ben Ndng luc cac ben Nang luc cac ben Tieu cue Tieu cue Chinh sdch, quy dinh Tai chinh Ndng luc quan tri Ndng luc quan tri Nang luc qudn trj Nang luc quan tri Ndng luc qudn tri Moi trucmg tg nhien Moi trucmg tg nhien Moi trucmg tu nhien Chinh sach, quy djnh Tai chinh Tai chinh Tai chinh Nang luc cdc ben Nang luc cac ben Nang luc van hanh Cg che chinh sach Co che chinh sdch Ndng luc van hanh
Diem TB 1.5 1.8 4 2.9 0.3 1.6 O.S 0.6 1.2 7.3 4.6 2.5 1.3 2.1 2 2 1.8 0.8 0.5 1.5 2.5 6.3 3.3 2.5 2.8 1.2
3.1 1.8 1.4 0.6
Xip h«iig 28 25 8 16 27
31 1 6 19 30 23 24 24 25
28 19 4 14 19 17 31 16 25 29
TAP CHi KHOA HOC TRLTONG DAI HOC MO TP.HCM - SO 6 (39) 2014
STT
R089 R090 R091
Riii ro
Vi pham tai trpng sir dung cong trinh Duy tu bao dudng cong trinh giao thdng kem
Ngudn gay riii ro
Nang luc van hanh Ndng luc van hdnh Nguoi dan vo y thiirc va phd hoai cdng trinh Nang luc van hdnh
Diem TB 1.5 3.5 1.3
xip hang 28 12 30
Trong giai doan chuan bi du an, cac riii ro do chinh sach, quy dinh, chu truong tac dpng Idn nhat den du an. Cac riii ro do sai lam ve chil truang dau tu se lam mat hieu qua dau tu, g3y hau qua nghiem trpng nhu lang phi, that thoat. Tiep theo la cac nii ro lien quan den tai chinb, nii ro do bd tri vdn diu tu phan tan, dan trai, khdng diing quy dinh trong quy hoach, ke hoach, gay nen tinh trang chiem dung vdn, ng dgng ldn, that thoat. Cac riii ro do khao sal thiet ke, va cudi cung la cac riii ro thuoc ve du an tac dpng it ban so vdi bai loai rui ro tren.
Trong giai doan thuc hi^n du an, cac nii ro do lieu cue, ng dpng, ca che xin - cho, tbu tuc h ^ h chinh bit cap la cac nii ro gay hau qua nSng ne nhat den cac du an, lam lang phi vdn dau lu, gay keo dai thdi gian va anh hudng den chat lugng cdng trinh. Rui ro do giai phdng mat bing khdng dung thdi ban quy dinb lam cham tign do du an, gay lang pbi, mat hieu qua dau tu. Cac nii ro do trien khai ke hoach giai ngan hang nam bi cham, bd tri vdn doi ling cham, nhiku du an khdi cdng khdng dugc bd tri von, khdi lugng hoan thanh khdng cd vdn thanh loan dut diem gay tac dgng nang ne, gay hien tugng lieu cue la chay chi tieu ke hoach, chay vdn, gSy hau qua lang phi, thit thoat va lam cho ddng vdn sii dung kem hieu qua.
Cac riii ro do khau thiet ke nhu chat lugng ho so thiel kB khdng theo diing cac quy pham, quy chuan ve ky thuat; hd so thiet ke khdng phil hgp voi linh hinh thuc te ve dia chit, dia hinh, thiiy van, dieu kien thdi tiet, dac di^m tai nguyen, ngudn luc dau vao,... la cac nii ro mang lai hau qua Idn ddi vdi du an. dan den thit thoat, lang phi trong qua trinh thi cdng duan.
Cac rui ro do khdng thuc hien dung trinh tir diu thiu; xet thau, danh gia de xep loai va lua chpn nha thau khdng chi'nh xac, thieu chuan muc; viec chuan bi td chuc dau thau khong dam bao chat lugng,... dan den tinh trang lieu cue, that thoat von va tai san. Hien tugng thdng thau giira cac nha thau hoac chu dau tu thdng ddng vdi mpt hoac nhieu dan vi tham gia dau thau de nang gia cdng trinh tbu Igi da ga}' hau qua cue ky nghiem trpng den viec dam bao hoan thanh muc lieu du an.
Trong qua trinh thi cdng va nghiem thu khdi lugng cd the xay ra cac riii ro do ap dung dinh muc, dan gia sai: cac nii ro do thi cdng khdng dam bao khdi lugng xay lap theo thiet ke dugc duyet, mpt so khdi lugng xay lap khdng du so vdi thiet ke dugc duyet van duge thanh loan; cac nii ro do ke khai, nghiem thu khdng khdi lugng hoac danh gia sai chSt lugng cdng trinh; khi tham tra tham dinb khong diing lam lang vdn dau tu xay dung cdng trinh,... Ia cac nii ro anh hudng nghiem trong den hieu qua ciia du an, gay lang phi that thoat vdn diu tu. Cac nii ro do khan hiem, bien dpng va gia nguyen vat lieu, may mdc thiet bi, lao dpng thay ddi la cac nii ro gay tac ddng ldn den du an, lam gia tang chi phi va keo dai thd! gian thuc hien du an. Cac riii ro lien quan den nang luc ciia cac ben tham gia du an, bao gdm chu dau tu. tu van, nha thau, gay ra cac hau qua ldn anh hudng den muc lieu du an ve mat chi phi, thdi gian, va chat lugng du an.
Trong giai doan khai thac du an, cac nii ro ve nang luc van hanh du an nhu nang Iuc quan ly yeu kem, duy tu bao dudng khdng dap ling \ eu cau va co che chinh sach, chiin luge, quy hoach tdng the khdng phii hgp, cdng trinh khdng dugc khai thac ddng bg da gay tac dpng va Iam giam hieu qua dy an.
50 KINHTE
5. Moi quan he giira cac rui ro trong dir an xay dirng cong trinh giao thong d Viet Nam
Cac nii ro trong cac du an khdng ton tai mgt each ddc lap ma cd moi quan be va lac ddng qua iai vdi nhau. Cac riii ro mang tinh xau chudi, tuc la mdt riii ro xuat hien se keo theo mpt hoac nhieu rui ro khac. Can cii vao ket qua phong van sau cac chuyen gia, lac gia da minh hpa mdi quan he giua cac riii ro trong du an xay dung cdng trinh giao thong d Viet Nam hi?n nay nhu trinh ba\ trong Hinh 1 sau.
Riii ro do thi^u thong tin trong xac dinb dieu kien tai chinh, ngudn von (ROOl) hoac riii ro do thong tin sai lech trong quy hoach, chinh sach vT md (R002). hoac xac dinh pham vi du dn khong phu hgp/khdng day du (R003), hay muc tieu du an khong dugc xac dinb ro rang va chfnh xac (R004) cd the dan den nii ro do dau tu Iran lan (R006). Viec dau tu tran lan Iai cd the din den chii dau tu chua xac dinh ro nguon vdn van tien banh dau tu va phan ky dau tu, kk hoach chua phii hgp (R008), dan den viec thieu su h6 trg tir phia nha tai trg (R009, R044), dieu nay gdp phan lam suy giam nSn^ luc tai chinh cua nha thiu (R042) va lam tram trong them tinh trang np dong (R04I,R080).
Riii ro do khao sat dia hinh, thiiy vSn, dia chit sai sdt, keo dai trong giai doan chuin bi du an (ROI6), khao sat dia chit sai sdt trong giai doan thuc hien du an (R026) co th^ din den cac thiel ke ca sd. thiet ke kp thuat, thi€t ke ban ve thi cdng khdng hoan chinh, sai sot, thi^u chinh xac (ROI8. R027). din d^n cac sai sdt trong qua trinh lap tong miic diu tu, tdng
du loan (R022, R031), lam tdng muc dau tu.
tdng du toan phai dieu chinh lai va chinh sira nbi^u lan (R033). Riii ro nay din tdi viec phai thay ddi lai ldng muc d i u tu (R02I), mang IEII hau qua la keo dai thdi gian du an va lam muc tieu chi phi dy an kbdng dat dugc.
Nhimg khd khan ve vdn ciia chii diu tu (R020), hoac cac thay ddi ve the che, chinh sach lien quan (ROI4), hoac cac van de \k trinh ty quan ly dau tu (R036) se din tdi nil ro vk giai phdng mat bang (R037). Riii ro nay co thS lam nay sinh nhung lieu cyc (R068), din tdi hau qua la chi phi dy an gia tang va thai gian keo dai, chat lugng cdng trinh co the khong dam bao.
Mdt loat cac riii ro nhu lua chpn nha thiu tu vin giam sat xay dirng cdng trinh khdng phil hgp (R047), nha thau hoac tu van giam sat qua tai (R056), lya chgn nha t h k cung ling kem (R046). hoac cac thay doi ve nhan su trong du an. doi lac lien quan den dir an (R071), hay hien tugng thdng thiu (R038) cd the din tdi nii ro lieu cyc trong xay dyng ccr ban (R068), lam cac muc tieu ve chi phi, thoi gian va chat lugng ciia dy an khdng dat dugc.
Hang loat cac nil ro nhu cdng tac quan Iy yeu kem (R085), chi§n luge va quy hoach tdng the chua phii hgp, d i u tu khdng dong bo (R086), cdng trinh khdng dugc dua vao su dung dong bp, giam hieu qua dau tu va khai thac (R087), quan ly tbu phi kem hieu qua (R088), vi pham tai trgng sir dung cdng trinh (R089), duy tu bao dudng kem (R090) hay ngudi dan vd y va co y pha hoai cdng trinh (R09I) sg dan tdi muc lieu chit lugng cong trinh khdng dam bao.
14073 irinh dy. kinli
R047. ROSf.. R057. lun .111,111 lu vaiiCtS kem. qiiu Mi, quy il|iili killing pliii
1{()7C), Rn77. R07S; uie tUiiig L'LIU I'mg, iigniii canli. i;i>iii; diinu
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ROUS ciiiig riit QL yuii kcni R086 {•[.Qil khong phii liop, DT khong dong b0
R087 .-u dung khiing il6gii Ki ROBS (JL Ihu |)hi ktni ROS'^ VI piiyiiid|iih iiii'ri: vi: Iji iivnji RD9n duy lu bati duiing kern
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52 TAP CHI KHOA HCpC TRUONG OAI HOC MO TP.HCM - s 6 6 (39) 2014 6. K i t luan
Thdng qua khao sat di^u tra cac ben lien quan, lac gia da xac dinb dugc cac riii ro trong cac du an xay dyng cong trinh giao thdng va m6i quan he qua lai giiiB cac nii ro do. Trong giai doan chuin bj va thuc hien dau tu, cac riii ro gay tac ddng d^n muc lieu dy an tren gdc dp thdi gian xay dyng bi keo dai, cbi phi gia tang va chit luong cdng trinh khdng dam bao.
Trong giai doan khai thac van hanh, nii ro xay ra lam giam hieu qua cua du an. Ket qua ciia nghien cuu nay dua ra danh muc cac rui ro trong cac du an xay dyng cdng trinh giao thdng. danh gia so bg do ldn ciia riii ro, ddng thdi giup cac ben lien quan trong viec xem xet riii ro trong mdi quan be hpp tac qua lai lan nhau.
Rui ro trong cac du an d cac nudc dang phat trien nhu Viet Nam khac biet so vdi cac
nudc da phat trien. Cac riii ro nhu giai phong mat bang cham, nang luc cac ben lien quan y^u, tai nan tren cdng trudng,... khdng xuit hien trong cac dy an d cac nudc phat trien do he thdng phap luat nhu quyen sd hiru dit dai.
he thdng luat ve an loan lao dpng lot. d cac nudc phat trien chi xuat hien cac rui ro do khimg hoang kinh te, do thien tai, hoac rui ro ky thuat ddi vdi qua trinh khao sat nen mong cac cdng trinh ham hoac nha sieu cao tSng.
Cac riii ro cd tac ddng ldn nhat den cac du an xay dung cdng trinh giao thdng d Viet Nam bao gdm: tieu cyc trong xay dyng ca ban, giai phdng mat bing cham, ca che xin cho, tinh trang ng dpng va khd khan tai chinh, va nang lyc tai chinh nha thau. Phan Idn cac riii ro gaj hau qua n^ng ne den du an deu co nguyen nhan la do thieu cac che tai dii manh de xu ly cac chu the vi pham trong qua trinh tham gia duan.
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