AREAS WHERE FARMWORKERS CONSTITUTED MORE THAN 40
APPENDIX 2 APPENDIX 2
POTENTIAL 'COLOURED' AND 'INDIAN' _VOTERS IN SOUTH AFRICA There are three sources to determine the number of 'coloureds' of voting age (i.e. 18+). They are the state statistics, independent projections based on the lat~st Population Census, i.e. 1980 and independent projections based on more th.n one census year.
According to state statistics, the total estimated number of coloured persons over the age of 18 years was 1 500 558 in June 1984.*1 My projections based on the 1980 Census yield a range with a maximum of 1 568 000 and a minimum of 1 561 000. Using two different techniques, and allowing' for a series of different variables, I obtained the following figures: 1 566 703, 1 566 171, 1 568 240, 1 561 448, 1 561 417 and 1 560 834.
The results are very close to one another. However, all of them are based on data obtained from the 1980 Census, which has been criticised for serious under-enumeration. In spite of adjustments to raw data for under-enumeration
:: .. ~ . by state statisticians, the widespread political protests and boycotts in May 1980 especially in 'Coloured' areas in the Cape rendered the Census returns suspect.*2 projections based solely on this data are likely to suffer from under-enumeration. A full discussion of the methodology used to obtain these figures is contained in Appendix
"
5. The more reliable (and at present,authoritative) method employed by the Uni t for Futures Research at the Un,iversi ty of Stellenbosch, takes"' -.. the resul ts . of more ~thai'i 'one' ce'nsus' year and projects ort that basis.~3 The figure for' 'coloureds' aged 18+ 'in 1. Hansard NO. 22, 2-6 July 1984,Question col~mni1899-1~00 2. Patel, Cape Town - A statistical summary ••• ,p.61
3. Grobbelaar,projections and Analysis of the S.A. pop.,pp.53~56
-52 June 1984 is 1 578 771, based on the Unit's calculations.
Another way in which the 1980 Census results could be used is to take the proportion of the population aged +18 in 1980 and apply this proportion to the estimated coloured population in 1984.
This method is based on the fallacious assumption that proportionally the population for the 18+ age category has remained static over the four year period. It ignores the shape of the population pyramid which shows a proportionately larger population per age cohort in the under 20 years age category compared with over 20 years old.*l Interestingly,the result of this method is 1 506 560 - very close to the one used by the state.
The 1980 Census boundaries included Ciskei, which subsequently was declared 'independent', but only 2 500 coloureds of voting age lived within its boundaries in 1980. The UFFR boundaries included all four 'independent' homelands, but only about 7 700 coloureds of voting age lived within their boundaries.
1. See for example,population pyramid for Coloureds in the peninsula, Appendix 9.
Table 10 summarises the results of these different methods and definitions of boundaries.
TABLE 10
summary of Size of 'coloured' population Aged 18+ Using Different Methods
ethod Total Difference from A Difference as % of A
A 1 500 558
Bl 1 566 703 66 145 4,4%
B2 1 566 171 65 613 4,4%
B3 1 561 417 60 859 4,1%
B4 1 560 834 60 276 4,0%
Cl 1 568 240 67 682 4,5%
C2 1 561 448 60 890 4,1%
D 1 564 136 63 578 4,2%
E 1 506 560 6 002 0,4%
F 1 578 771 78 213 5,2%
G 1 561 315 60 757 4,0%
H 1 571 071 70 513 4,7%
A The total released in parliament
B Totals derived from 1980 Census data,using death rates of 15+
category as a percentage of total deaths (see later Appendix) C Totals derived from 1980 Census data, using death rates of 15+
category as a percentage of total pbpulation (see later Appendix)
D Mean of the six totals obtained using methods Band C E The total derived from 1980 data, using proportion of the
population aged 18+ and applying same proportion in 1984
F The totals derived from projections by Grobbelaar
-~
of the unit
I
for Futures Research (UFFRl, Stellenbosch
G Mean total used in D, deflated by Ciskei figures
H UFFR figures, deflated by 'independent' homelands, viz TBVC.
Table 10 shows that of the reliable methods used (B, C, D, F, G and Hl, the result differs in the range of 60 000 to 78 000 from the government's figure. In the absense of state statisticians revealing their method for arriving at the quoted figure (Al, we must regard it with suspicion. For no apparent reason their figure is lower than that obtained by using any reliable method.
Coincidentally, the lower their figure, the higher the registration proportion, and the more rosy the pre-election picture looks. Any projections of potential voters based on this flawed data would of course, be an under-estimation.
The Electoral Act of 1979 does not define a potential voter only on the basis of age qualifications. In addition, a number of disqualifierb apply. See Appendix 6 for details.
At the conceptual level,opponents of the state and the tri-cameral parliament can question the legitimacy of these disqualifiers in a broader political sense. If apartheid society breeds crime, and crime of a special form or intensity for example, should 'criminals' disqualified by the Act be considered outside of the scope of determining the 'coloured' political constituency? More pertinent, should those co~victed f6r 'crimes against the security of the state' be ommitted in calculating the potential pOlitical constituency?
At the practical level, given the absence of a sophisticated system of registration, and the various criticisms of the more up-to-date white voters roll, it is unlikely that the number of registered voters would have been deflated (in practice) by disqualified persons. An effective mechanism to disqualify a registered voter does not seem to exist. In fact, our research on selected voters rolls has uncovered numerous discrepancies from duplicate registrations to the registration of dead people.*l It is possible therefore that a portion of the current registered voters may legally be disqualified from being registered and from voting.
In addition, a state spokesman had said that ' i t is not possible to determine the number of voters who qualify for being added to the voters' lists for the tricameral parliamentary elections'.*2 In the absence of such an official figure, and with the objections discussed earlier in mind, it is yet useful to try to arrive at a figure with which to deflate the category of persons aged 18+.
This figure is likely to be in the range 24 000 to 26 000.
Appendix 6 contains the methodology and shows the problems in determining any exact figure. We therefore arrive at a figure for the number of potential voters as per the Electoral Act of 1979 that can vary as follows (note that only results obtained from the reliable techniques employed are reflected).
1. See Cape Herald 11/8/84,Cape Times 11/8/84,Sunday Tribune 12/8/84.
2. F.W. de K1erk, Hansard 14 March 1984, Column 625.
-56 TABLE 11
probable Number of Eligible Voters as per Different Methods Used lethods Total 18+ Likely Eligible I'lax El ig ible
voters Voters
--- --- --- ---
Bl 1 566 703 1 542 239 1 541 011
B2 1 566 171 1 541 707 1 540 479
B3 1 561 417 1 536 953 1 535 725
B4 1 560 834 1 536 370 1 535 142
Cl 1 568 240 1 543 776 1 542 548
C2 1 561 448 1 536 984 1 535 756
D 1 564 136 1 539 672 1 538 444
F 1 578 771 1 554 307 1 553 079
G 1 561 636 1 537 172 1 535 944
H 1 571 071 1 546 607 1 545 379
'likely' - based on estimates of likely number of people disquali- fied from registering (24 464)
'Maximum'- based on estimates of maximum number of people disqualified from registering (25 692).
The results of method B,C,D, and G, are based exclusively on data obtained from the 1980 Census which has been criticised for under- enumeration. The authoritative figures are those calculated by UFFR ( F and H ).
The choice is between using the boundaries of South Africa as defined in 1975 or those excluding the four 'independent' homelands. The South African state, and its legal apparatus sees the 'independent' homelands as politically distinct from ~outh
Africa, and its formal political process is based on this
I
~57position. It leads to problems when we compare for instance, results of the 1969 CRC elections - prior to the independence of homelands - with the 1984 elections, since that portion of 'coloureds' living within 'independent' homelands have presumably lost their South African citizenship. Many organisations which participated in the anti-election campaign define South Africa in the broader sense, and regard the homelands as part of their political constituency. Neither the united Nations organisation, nor any country aside from South Africa, officially recognises the independence of these homelands.
However .. in this study we have used ·the boundary which fell within the scope of the 1984 elections, for obvious reasons. Potential voters, based on the provisions of the Electoral Act of 1979, must be citizens of the state-defined 'South Africa'. We accept that in a different context and for diff~rent purposes the 1984 election results may be calculated on the basis of the original boundaries of this country.
The approximate number of potential 'coloured' voters is therefore 1 554 307 in South·Africa, and 1 546 607 in South Africa excluding the four 'independent homelands'.
The use of the category 'Asian' (which refers to Indians and Chinese) both by the Census authorities and the UFFR makes accurate independent calculations difficult. It is therefore assumed that the potential number of 'Indian' voters is 514 946, the figure released in parliament.*l This figure is for the
current~ state defin.d-boundary of South Africa.
1. Hansard No. 22, 2-6 July 1984, Question columns 1899-1900.
-58 APPENDIX 3
POTENTIAL VOTERS PER REGION (a) 'Coloureds'
There were 1 659 280 'coloureds' aged 14+ in 1980,of whom 2 992 lived in Ciskei. In the 'Republic' boundaries there were there- fore 1 656 288. The total deaths in the period to 1984 (excluding deaths in Ciskei) were 94 973 (mean figure, based on totals in Appendix 5). There were therefore 1 561 315 'coloureds' aged 18+
in 1984, according to census calculations. However, the more reliable UFFR figure is 1 571 071. We can therefore calculate a multiplier to adjust census figures to the UFFR level. We assume an equal spread of under-enumeration throughout the country for the 1980 census results. This multiplier can therefore be applied to census data for 1980 per region/province. Our calculations were as follows:
al• a2.
=
aa - b
=
cc.x d
x
=
dc
where a I
a Z
a
b
approximate number of people aged 14+ in 1980, excluding the TBCV
rate (0,9996306) to adjust approximate data to data based on actual age cohorts
number of people aged 14+ in 1980, excluding the TBCV
mean deaths for the 1980-1984 period, (deflated by Ciskei deaths)
c number of people aged 18+ in 1984 (as per census)
d Number of people aged 18+ in 1984 (as per UFFR, excluding TBCV) x multiplier to adjust census data to
UFFR data (1,0062485)
1
This was applied to each region as follows:
where . a '3 number of people aged 14+ in 1980 ,per region.
f mean national death rate (O,0573408.a) a 3
-
f =c e total aged 18+.(adjusted per UFFR, perregion)
c.x =e g disqualification from voting rate (O,0155715.e)
e
-
g =h h total eligible to vote per region.The results (h) were as follows Cape Province 1 317 554
Peninsula 504 950
Cape excl. peninsula 812 602
Natal 54 647
Transvaal 141 408
Orange Free state 32 999
R S A 1 546 607
Rounding off accounts for slight discrepancies
-60 (b) 'Indians'
The published census data on age x size of the population classi- fies 'Indians' as part of the 'Asian population group'. This difficulty prevented us from calculating the potential number of
Indian voters using published census reports. other sources of state data which dia not pose this difficulty,were used.
In May 1980 there were 457 540 Indians aged 18+. The distribution per province was:*l
Cape Transvaal Natal
18 880 66 620 372 040
In July 1984, there were an estimated 514 946 Indians aged 18+.
Assuming the same proportional distribution of Indians in each province as in 1980, we calculated a multiplier to adjust each provincial total for population growth.
The adjusted figures are as follows for 1984:
Cape 21 249
Natal Transvaal R.S.A.
418 719 74 979 514 946
1. Hansard No. 15, Question Column 1348,(1983).
APPENDIX 4