AREAS WHERE FARMWORKERS CONSTITUTED MORE THAN 40
APPENDIX 4 APPENDIX 4 Registration of Voters
APPENDIX 4
-62 The following observations can be made:
(i) The number ot 'coloureds' registerea, as a proportion of potential vote~s is 59% (using our tindings,method H) ana 58,8% (using method F),while it is 60,9% (using ~tate
data,method A). This means 41% (632 869) of our estimated potential voters are not registered, and 39% (586 820) if state data is used.
(ii) The number of registered 'Indians' as a proportion of potential voters is 80%. This means 20% are not registered. The total number of unregistered potential voters was 103 045.
(iii) Coloureds registered in contested seats, as a proportion of potential voters was 57% (method II). Registered voters in uncontested seats formed 3,5% of all registered voters. only 57 out of every 100 potential voters were therefore in a position to cast a vote, i.e. both registered and living in a contested constituency.
Forty-three percent were,before any votes were cast, unable to exercise the option to vote.
(iv) Comparisons are possible with registration figu\es for the Coloured Persons Representative Council. The number of registered voters, and the proportion they constituted of potential voters, were 637 587 (75,6%) in 1969 and 521 557 (52,5%) in 1975.*1 The proportion of eligible people registered as voters for the election to the tri-cameral parliament is significantly less than those registered fc -::
,
~
..
t~· CRC elections in 1969. In 1969 almost 76 of
ever~ 100 eligible voters were registered, in 1984 only 59 in every 100 were - 17 fewer persons per 100 were 1. Theron Commission of Inquiry,p.355.
registered in 1984 than in 1969. Had the same proportion of eligible voters registered as in 1969 the total registered would have been between 1 169 235 and 1 175 056, which is about 250 000 to 260 000 more than the This is so in spite of a strong campaign to register during the run-up to this election. Since the 1969 elections was also the 'first' attempt at a new parlia- mentary system, lack of knowledge is likely to have played a bigger role then than in 1984.
(v) A relatively small number of eligible 'coloured' voters who were not registered previously, registered specifi- cally as part of the registration campaign leading to the August elections. On 30 June 1983,there were 675 683 registered voters on the central voters index.*l The registration campaign only started after the November referendum of white voters to teit the acceptability of the new dispensation. Therefore only 238 055 new voters registered since the start of the latest registration campaign. This is 26% of regist~d voters to date and
,
15% of potential voters. A large proportion of the 913·
738 registered voters registered without the incentive of the 'new deal' clearly in mind. 11any of these registered as long ago as 1969 and 1974, and may no longer consider themselves registered at present.*2 A number of people who registered in the most recent campaign were found afterwards to be registered already - and yet no sound mechanism to detect such duplicawas developed by the state.
1. Annual Report, Dept. of Internal Affairs 1982-83,p.131.
2. See Cape Herald 11/8/84.
(vi) Hegistration as voters for the South African Indian elections was low in 1901. It had increased by 41% in the three year period,from 292 503 in 1981 to 411 901 in 1984. The factors which exerted a strong influence on 'coloured' registration patterns were not as pronounced, nor as successful in achieving a low registration figure within 'Indian' areas.
I I,
~ i
APPl::NDIX 5
CALCULATING THE NUMBER OF 'COLOUREDS' AGED 18 AND OVER IN 1984, USING 1980 CENSUS DATA
Those aged 14 in May 1980 would be aged 13 in May 1984~ Table 12 shows the distribution of the 'coloured' popUlation p~r age cohorts 14 and over.
TABLE 12 *1
DISTRIBUTION OF 'COLOURED' POPULATION BY AGE COHORTS 14 AND OVER, 1980
AGE NU~IBER
---
---14 68 540
15-19 320 420
20-24 269 860
25-34 386 400
35-44 251 920
45-54 174 500
55-64 103 200
65-74 59 580
75+ 24 860
---
TOTAL 14+ 1 659 280
---
To ~etermine the number of people aged 18 and over for 1984, one calculates the total aged 14 and over in 1980. This amounts to 1 659 280. From this need be substracted those in this category who died in th~ four year period since the census'.
1. Census report:Sample Tabulations- social characteristicsipp.5.7
There are no period, nor
p',oio, o'o'io'i," ioo
deo'""
ip'e'
whole 100'Y~
for deaths in the 14+ category. The following method was used:
(a) total deatn figures (coloureas) were available for 1980, 19B1 and 1982;
(b) total death figures (coloureds) were ava11able tor years prior to 1980, and we selected 1972 as the starting point (see Table 13.1);
(c) deaths in the 14+ category were not available from 1980, but the 15+ category was available between 1972-1979;
(d) total 'coloured' population (mid year estimates) were available from 1972-1983;
(e) we could calculate the deaths in the 15+ category per year as a percentage of total estimated population, and as a percentage of total deaths (see Table 13.2);
(f) total deaths for 1983 and 1984 could be estimated using two different techniques. First, by assuming the last available figure (i.e. 1982, equalling 26 837) remained constant. Or, second, by projecting the arithmetic mean for the 11 years of available data to arrive at estimates for 1983 and 1984 (i.e 26 468);
(g) The projected total population for 1984 (to maintain
compatibility with Current population Survey data) could be ootained by multiplying the 1983 population with the growth shown in the previous year (i.e. growth between 1982-1983 equalled 1,84%);
(h) Total deaths in the 15+ category for the period 1980-84 can be obtained by projecting deaths in the 15+ category either as a percentage of all deaths or as a percentage of population.
Note that the number of people who die at the age of 14 is
APPUlDIX 5
CALCULATING THE NUMBER OF 'COLOUREDS' AGED 18 AND OVER IN 1984, USING 1900 CENSUS DATA
Those aged 14 in ~ay 1980 would be aged 18 in. May 1984. Table 12 shows the distribution of the 'coloured' f.lor_,ulation per age cohorts 14 and over.
TABLE 12 *1
DISTRIBUTION OF 'COLOURED' POPULATION BY AGE COHORTS 14 AND OVER, 1980
AGE NU~lBER
---
---
14 68 540
15-19 320 420
20-24 269 860
25-34 386 400
35-44 251 920
45-54 174 500
55-64 103 200
65-74 59 580
75+ 24 860
---
TOTAL 14+ 1 659 280
---
To determine the number of people aged 18 and over for 1984, one calculates the total aged 14 and over in 1980. Thi~ amounts to 1 659 280. From this need be substracted those in this category who died in the four year period since the census.
1. Census report:Sample Tabulations- social characteristics,pp.5.7
-lj6
There are no precise statistics for deaths in the whole four year period, nor for ceaths in the 14+ category. The following method was used:
(a) total death figures (coloureas) were available for 1980, 19B1 and 1982;
(b) total death figures (coloureds) were available tor years prior to 1980, and we selected 1972 as the starting point (see 'I'able 13.1);
(c) deaths in the 14+ category were not available from 1980, but the 15+ category was available between 1972-1979;
(d) total 'coloured' population (mid year estimates) were available from 1972-1983;
(e) we could calculate the deaths in the 15+ category per year as a percentage of total estimated population, and as a percentage of total deaths (see Table 13.2);
(f) total deaths for 1983 and 1984 could be estimated using two different techniques. First, by assuming the last available figure (i.e. 1982, equalling 26 837) remained constant. Or, second, by projecting the arithmetic mean for the 11 years of available data to arrive at estimates tor 1983 and 1984 (i.e 26 468);
(g) The projected total population for 1984 (to maintain
campa tibil i ty wi th Curren t popula tion survey da ta) could be ootained by multiplying the 1983 population with the growth shown in the previous year (i.e. growth between 1982-1983 equalled 1,84%);
(h) Total deaths in the 15+ category for the period 1980-84 can be obtained by projecting deaths in the 15+ category either as a percentage of all deaths or as a percentage of population.
Note that the number of people who die at the age of 14 is
1 I
I,i
J
Inegligible, and can be ignored tor our purposes;
(i) Deaths in the 15+ category as a percentage of population has been calculated for the period 1972-1979. Two variations are possible in the projection. One, the arithmetic mean for the period can be obtained (and since the percentages fluctuate, this is the better method) - it equals 0,67% of population.
For the period, total deaths equal 91 040 people. This results in a total of 1 568 240 'coloureds' in the 18+ category in 1984 (el in Table 10). Two,the maximum percentage can be used - assu-ming the worst possible projection. This is an unlikely figure, but can be used to show the underestimation in the state statistics. The maximum was 0,72% and this 4qualled 97 832 deaths. This results in a population total of 1 561 448
'coloureds' in the 18+ category for 1984 (e2 in Table 10);
(j) Deaths in the 15+ category as a percentage of total deaths has been calculated for the period 1972-1979 (see Table 13.1) Four variations are possible in the proj~ctions. Sinca the proportions show an increase in the period 1972-1979, we can assume this increase will continue (in part it is due to a decrease in the infant mortality rate for the same period). The variations are produced because of different possibHities regarding the continued rate of increase of the proportion that the 15+ death category constitutes of the total death category, and of the two differeni projection of total deaths for 1983 and 1984.
The first two variations are based on the assumption that the rate of increase would slow down over this period. This rate cannot continue indefinitely, since it would conceivably result at some nearby date, in all deaths being deaths in the 15+ category - a
I '
silly p~oposition. Va~iation one and two assume an inc~ease in the ~ate to 7U% fo~ 19LU and 1981 and 72~ fo~ 1982, 1983 and 1~B4.
va~lation one would be to apply t~ese rates to total aeaths for
1~80-82 and tor the projection of the arithmetic mean for the 1972-1982 period (which equals 26 46B) onto the following two years. This results in 92 577 deaths. This means 1 566 703 living 'coloureds' aged 18+ (Bl in Table 10). Variation two would be to apply these deaths to total deaths for 1980-82 and for the projection of the 1982 death total (which is 26 837) onto the following two years. This results in 93 109 deaths. This means 1566 171 living 'coloureds' aged 18+ (B2 in Table 10).
variations three and four are based on the assumption that these rates do not in fact slow down - the points are plotted on the graph ~nd produce the following rates: 1980 70,4%; 1981 72,8%;
1982 75%; 1983 77,8%; and 1984 80%. Variation three would be to apply these rates to total deaths t~om 1980-82 and for the projection of the arithmetic mean for the 1972-1982 periods (26 468) onto following two years. This results in 97 863 deaths. This means 1 561 417 living 'coloureds' aged 18+ (83 in Table 10).
variation four would be to apply these rates to total deaths for 1980-~2 and for the projection of the 1982 death totals (26 837) onto the following two years. This results in 98 446 deaths. This means 1 560 834 living 'coloureds' aged 18+ (84 in Table 10).
These results are summarised as follows:
TABLE 13 .1
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED TOTAL DEATHS AND POPULATION, DEATHS IN THE
---
Total year Deaths
---
1972 27 743 1973 28 443 1974 29 479 1975 27 615 1976 28 650 1977 25 620 1978 22 716 1979 23 849 1980 23 985 1981 26 214 1982 26 837 1983A 26 468x 1983B 26 837x 1984A 26 468x 1984B 26 837x
x projections
15+ CATEGORY AS A % OF BOTH
---
15+ Deaths
---
14 361 15 4e4 16 481 16 808 17 235 16 492 14 894 16 237
---
15+ Deaths as
..
of TotalDeaths
---
51,7%
54,4%
55,9%
60,8%
60,1%
64,3%
65,5%
68,0%
N M
....
---
Total Popula-
tion
---
2 189 000 2 245 000 2 300 000 2 357 000 2 404 000 2 462 000 2 529 000 2 572 000 2 621 000 2 671 000 2 715 000
2 765 000
2 815 876
---
15+ Deaths as '/sof Tota population
---
0,66%
0,69%
0,72%
0,71%
0,72%
0,67%
0,59%
0,63%
A mean deaths per annum for period 1972-82.
B deaths for 1982 assumed constant.
sources of data: South African Statistics 1980, p. 3.21 South African Statistics 1982, p. 3.21
Statistical News Release,p.l1.3-deaths (27/3/84) Statistical News Release,p.ll - population (13/12/83) •
TABLE 13.2
(a) PROJECTED DEATH TO~ALS IN 15+ CATEGORY USING TOTAL POPULATION FIGUI~ES
Year Total population At 0,67% (Mean) At 0,72% (Maximum)
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984
2 621 000 2 671 000 2 715 000 2 765 000 2 815 876
17 561 17 896 18 191 18 526 18 866
18 371 19 231 19 548 19 90S 20 274
Total 1980-1984: 91 040 97 832
(b) PROJECTED DEATH TOTALS IN 15+ CATEGORY USING TOTAL DEATH FIGURES
year Total Deaths at 70% and 72% At Differing Rates
1980 23 985 16 790 (70%) 16 885 (70,4%) 1981 26 214 18 350 (70%) 19 084 ( 72,8%) 1982 26 837 19 323 ( 72%) 20 128 (75,9%) 1983A 26 468 19 057 (72% ) 20 592 (77 ,8%) 1983B 26 837 19 323 (72%) 20 879 (77,8%) 1984A 26 468 19 057 ( 72%) 21 174 (80,0%) 1984B 26 837 19 323 ( 72%) 21 470 (80,0%)
ota1 with A (80-84) 92 577 97 863 ota1 with B (80-84 93 109 98 446
-70
'I'ABLE 13.3
CALCt.;LATIl:;G TOTAL It-< 18+ Cl.TEGORY BY 1984
--- --- ---
'lethod Total 14+ in Estimated Deaths Living 1984
1980 (1980-1984)
--- --- ---
Bl 1 659 280 92 577 1 566 703
B2 1 659 280 93 109 1 566 171
B3 1 659 280 97 863 1 561 417
B4 1 659 280 98 446 1 560 834
Cl 1 659 280 91 04q 1 568 240
C2 1 659 280 97 832 1 561 448
Our range is therefore 60 000 to 78 000 higher than the state- supplied fig~re quoted earlier.
This range of 60 000 to 78 000 more than equals the sum of all 'coloured' voters in the 10 constituencies of Natal and the orange Free State, as determined by the quotas in respect of the number of voters per constituency (allocated by the Delimitation Commission). Alternatively, it equals between 4 and 5 Cape Constituencies.*l
In 1980 there were 11 632 coloureds and 865 Indians in 3 of the 4 'independent' homelands. There were 2 996 , coloureds' and 'Indians' in the other homeland.*2 Assuming the same distrioution of 'coloureds' and 'Indians' in the fourth homeland as in the other three, there would be a total of 14 377 'coloureds' and 1. Hansard NO. 12,24-27 April,Question Column 974.
2. Statistical Survey of Black Development (BENSO),1982,Table 6
-72 1 086 Indians in the 4 independent homelands (TEVC). Assuming the whole of South Africa,*l there would be about 7 700 'coloureds' aged 18+ in the TBVC.
since UFFR data shows 1 578 771 'coloureds' aged 18+,deflated by the TBVC figure it would be reduced to 1 571 071. If we further deflate this figure by the likely number of disqualified voters, there would be 1 546 607 'coloureds' eligible to vote. The approximate number of eligible 'coloured' voters aged 18+ is therefore I 554 307 in South Africa, and I 546 607 in South Africa excluding the TBVC.
1. Census Report,social characteristics, p.65
D 1 S0UAL! FH:nS ~'Hml VOT! NC/ Hf':C j S'l'EI~ j M;
The E:iecto["ai Act, NO. '15 of 1979, as "mended l.>y ttle Llect.ocal rct Amendillen t Ac t , No. 42 of 19U4, lists the tiisqualirie["s ["egist["ation 0[" voting. It is ["eproduced below:
franchise for while l><niOn5.
Pt':ntms nOl enlllied
III ~ n:gLSlercd Of
to ,.ne
FRANCHISE
J •. ( I) Every while person who is a Soulll African cilizen. is of 40 or Over Ille age of eighleen years ami is nol subjecl 10 any of Ihe disqoalifications menlioned '" section 4 (I) or (2), shall. on compliance ",illl the provisions of 'this Act. be entitled 10 be registered as a voler. .
(2) Every person who was classIfied as a Eoropean on any 45 voten' list in e~istence at the commencemenl of the Pranchise Laws Amendment Act. 1931 (Acl No. 41 of 1931), and was nOI olherwise clas.sified on any earlier vOlers' list, shall be deemed 10 be a white person for the purposes of subsection (I),
4. (I) No person shall be entitled to be regislered or to the 50 continuance of his registration or to vOle in any division-
(a) if he has been convicted in the Republic or in the lerritory of South West Africa or in an independent SIlJte-
ti) of treason. if Ille conviction took place after 10 55 June 1950; or
(ii) of murder; or
(iii) of an offence under the Internal Security Act. 1950 (Acl No. 44 of 1950), or the Terrori,m Act, 1967 (Act No, ~3 of 1967), or, in the ca.sc of !he satd 60 independent State, of an offence under an~ law which is applicahle in that State and which has as ilS obje~t the: comburing of communism or terror- Ism. in res~l:t nf whi(h he: has been St:n(en~('u In ..
period of irnprisonmc:nt withOUI thl: opu,'n of • fine:; or
(bl if he has b«n convicted of any corrupt ur ille~al prdctice under this Act and has b«n declared incapable of being registered or of vOling at any election during ,any period. and the said perioo has not e~pired; or (el if an identity <locument has nOl been issued to him in 10
terms of the Population Registration Act, 1950 (Act No.
JO of 1950), or the Identity Documents in Soulh· West Africa Act. 1970 (Act No, 37 of 1970),
contin\IeQ. over leaf •••
(2) If any person-
(a) has been convicted in the Republic or in the territory of 15 South West Africa or in an independent State of an olIenee (except an offence referred to in subsection (I) (a)) in respect of which he has been sentenced to a period of imprisonment without the option of a fine or ordered to be detained under the Abuse of Dependence- 20 prodUCing Substances and Rehabilitation Centres Act, 1971 (Act No. 41 of (971), or, in the case of the said independent State, under any law which is applicable in that State and which has as its object the combating of the abuse of dependence-producing drugs and alcoholic 25 liquor, or
( b) is subject to an order of a court declaring him to be of unsound mind or mentally disordered or defective; or (e) is detained as a mentally ill person under the Mental
Health Act, 1973 (Act No. 18 of (973), or, in the case 30 of an independent State, under any law which is applicable in that State; or
(d) is, in pursuance of an order made under section 290 (I) (d) or (3) (b) or section 291 (3) of the Criminal Procedure Act, 1977 (Act No. 51 of 1977), detained in a 35 reform school referred to in the said section 290 or, in the case of an independent State, is in pursuance of an order made under any law which is applicable in that State, detained in a reform school,
he shall not be entitled to be registered or to vote in any division 40 during the period of his detention by vinue of such a sentence or order or under any law referred to in paragraph (e).
(3) For the purposes of subsection (I) (a)-
(a) a person who has been granted a free pardon shall be deemed not to have been convicted of the offence in 45 question;
(b) a period of imprisonment means the full term of a sentence of imprisonment, notwithstanding any re- mission of the whole or any portion of the sentence; and ( e) a sentence of imprisonment which has been suspended 50
and is thereafter put into operation, shall be deemed to have been imposed on the date upon which it is so put into operation.
(4) No person who has been guilty of any corrupt or illegal practice at an election shall, whether or not he is registered as a 55 voter, be entitled to vote at that election.
-74
The number of people disqualified in subsection l(a) and (b), and who are not in jail would be negligible. Subsection l(c) has been amended so as to remove the need to possess an identity document.
Subsection 2(a): convictions (and jail sentence without the option of a fine). NO data was available in the precise form needed.
However, the following could be obtained: imprisonment without the option of a fine (1980-81) equalled 88 056.*1 This figure was not available on a racial basis. The number of sentenced prisoners in gaol as at 30 June 1983 was 86 333.*2 This last figure was broken 1. Statistics of Offences, Table 5.
2. ~ Department of Justice, Table 6, P.50.
l
down on a racial basis as follows: 72% African, 5% white, 23%
coloured and 0.6% Indian. Assuming that these ratios woule hole for the category 'imprisoned without the option of a fine' ,we arrive at a figure of 19 857 'coloureds' behind bars without the option of a fine. Assuming that the position has not changed dramatically in the period, we can deflate our 18+ population by this figure. Note that this figure includes convictions of persons aged less than 18 (which, by the way, form 14% of total convictions in the 1980-81 period).*l It also includes people currently serving a sentence for offences listed under l(a)(i)(ii)(iii) and l(b).The ac~ual total can therefore be assumed to be lower. However, to be quite sure about our figures,we will use the total as calculated above.
2(b) and (c): mental disorders. No statistics in this form were available, but statistics of number of certified persons on the register were obtainable for the period 1965-1976.Thereafter it was discontinued. The statistics for 'coloureds' and the proportion it constituted of the mid-year population estimates are given in Table 14.
1. statistics of Offences, Table 2 and 3, p.9 and p. 17
TABLE 14
NmmER OF CERTIFIED PEOPLE ON TilE REGISTER, AND AS A
P~OPORTIOK OF TOTAL POPULATION
Year Total %population
1965 3 202 0,18%
1966 3 345 O,Hl%
1967 3 504 0,18%
1968 3 414 0,17%
1969 2 896 0,14%
1970 3 300 0,16%
1971 2 803 0,13%
1972 2 790 0,12%
1973 2 791 0,12%
1974 2 871 0,12%
1975 3 691 0,16%
1976 4 247 0,18%
MEAN 0,15%
Sour~es : South African Statistics 1980, pp 1.4 and 4.6 South African statistics 1982, p 4.7
-76
The mean for the twelve year period is 0,15%. Another study*l which tried to quantify the number of 'Known mentally disordered' estimated (using their figures) a rate of 0,11% for blacks and 0,25% for whites. The proportion for the whole population was 0,15% • Both our results and the study quoted above arrive at about 0.15%. Let us assume this is the likely figure. Let us also 1. K. Solomons,The Development of Mental Health Faci1ities •• p.33.
"
assume the highest for the period (i.e. 0,18%) is the maximum.
This gives us (at 1984 projections) a likely total of 4 224 and a maximum of 5 069.
2(d) - reformed schools. No record was available of the number of children at reformed schools in pursuance of the order mentioned under this section. However, total enrolment at reformed schools and schools of industry under the Department of Internal Affairs was a follows:
Reformed Schools *1 schools of Indus~ry *2
Total 1916
The majority of these youngsters are likely to be aged under eighteen. No official figures could be obtained for an age breakdown. Based on discussion with people at some stage connected with these special schools, we made two assumptions.
Assume that 20% are likely to be aged over 18 (which totals 383) and a maximum of 40% could be aged over 18 (which totals 766).
Table 15 shows the maximum and likely number of people affected by each disqualifier.
1. Hansard, 25 May 1984, column 1578.
2. Annual Report - Dept. of Internal Affairs 1982-83,pp.26-27.