BAB V. KESIMPULAN DAN IMPLIKAS
B. Implikasi
Berdasarkan kesimpulan yang telah diuraikan, maka penulis mencoba mengemukakan implikasi yang mungkin bermanfaat di antaranya :
1. Untuk Pemerintah
Berdasarkan hasil temuan di atas, penelitian ini diharapkan dapat berguna bagi pemerintah dan pihak yang terkait dalam pengambilan kebijakan dari penerapan kebijakan makroekonomi di dalam negaranya. Pemerintah sebaiknya dengan hasil temuan ini menjadi dasar dalam pengambilan keputusan terutama menganai kebijakan moneter yang akan diambilnya. Karena kebijakan apapun yang diambilnya, akan mempengaruhi nilai prestasi indeks pasar suatu negara. Sehingga pemerintah harus dengan cermat menyikapi kebijakan yang akan diambilnya..
2. Untuk Investor
Harapan setiap investor adalah mendapatkan profit (keuntungan) dari setiap investasi yang dilakukannya. Adanya hasil temuan-temuan dalam penelitian ini, dapat dijadikan sebagai bahan pertimbangan bagi para investor sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi pada perusahaan- perusahaan tertentu dengan mempertimbangkan keadaan makroekonomi negara yang akan diinvestasikannya.
162 3. Untuk Akademisi
Penelitian ini dapat dijadikan sebagai referensi dalam penelitian-penelitian selanjutnya yang akan membahas mengenai variabel makro ekonomi. Untuk penelitian selanjutnya sebaiknya memperbanyak tahun penelitian, dan jumlah variabel makroekonomi misalnya : menilai faktor ekonomi suatu negara dengan menggunakan variabel cadangan devisa, transaksi berjalan, net buying asing dan juga dengan menggunakan variabel PDB.
163
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LAMPIRAN
MODIF 18
OUTPUT LISREL
Raw Data from file 'G:\data2\OLAH DATA\LN semua jg.psf' Sample Size = 102
Latent Variables DOMESTIK ASING PRESTASI Relationships X1 = DOMESTIK X2 = DOMESTIK X3 = DOMESTIK X4 = DOMESTIK X5 = ASING X6 = ASING X7 = ASING X8 = ASING Y1 = PRESTASI Y2 = PRESTASI Y3 = PRESTASI
PRESTASI = DOMESTIK ASING Number of Decimals = 4 Wide Print Print Residuals Path Diagram End of Problem Sample Size = 102 MODIF 18 Number of Iterations = 34
LISREL Estimates (Maximum Likelihood) Measurement Equations Y1 = 0.5542*PRESTASI, Errorvar.= 0.08955 , Rý = 0.7742 (0.01413) 6.3399 Y2 = 1.0113*PRESTASI, Errorvar.= 0.6261 , Rý = 0.6203 (0.09112) (0.08778) 11.0996 7.1331 Y3 = 0.5439*PRESTASI, Errorvar.= 0.7277 , Rý = 0.2890 (0.08371) (0.09821) 6.4971 7.4095 X1 = 0.04702*DOMESTIK, Errorvar.= 1.3512 , Rý = 0.001634 (0.06091) (0.1899) 0.7720 7.1148 X2 = 0.04651*DOMESTIK, Errorvar.= 0.06737 , Rý = 0.03111 (0.01636) (0.009291) 2.8425 7.2509 X3 = - 0.03760*DOMESTIK, Errorvar.= 0.003970 , Rý = 0.2626 (0.006669) (0.0005493) -5.6378 7.2268 X4 = - 0.3425*DOMESTIK, Errorvar.= -0.01984 , Rý = 1.2035 (0.02053) (0.005031) -16.6796 -3.9432 W_A_R_N_I_N_G : Error variance is negative.
X5 = 0.3928*ASING, Errorvar.= 0.06155 , Rý = 0.7148 (0.03708) (0.008730) 10.5919 7.0509 X6 = 0.4297*ASING, Errorvar.= -0.002779 , Rý = 1.0153 (0.02982) (0.001568) 14.4062 -1.7719 W_A_R_N_I_N_G : Error variance is negative.
X7 = 0.03840*ASING, Errorvar.= 0.05608 , Rý = 0.02562 (0.02338) (0.007885) 1.6420 7.1116 X8 = 0.04024*ASING, Errorvar.= 0.02076 , Rý = 0.07234 (0.01442) (0.002916) 2.7904 7.1216 Structural Equations
PRESTASI = - 0.1352*DOMESTIK + 0.9124*ASING, Errorvar.= -0.07028 , Rý = 1.0703 (0.05008) (0.09061) (0.02865)
-2.6999 10.0691 -2.4532 W_A_R_N_I_N_G : Error variance is negative.
Goodness of Fit Statistics Degrees of Freedom = 41
Minimum Fit Function Chi-Square = 660.4130 (P = 0.0)
Normal Theory Weighted Least Squares Chi-Square = 544.3185 (P = 0.0) Estimated Non-centrality Parameter (NCP) = 503.3185
90 Percent Confidence Interval for NCP = (431.7050 ; 582.3716) Minimum Fit Function Value = 6.5387
Population Discrepancy Function Value (F0) = 4.9834 90 Percent Confidence Interval for F0 = (4.2743 ; 5.7661) Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA) = 0.3486 90 Percent Confidence Interval for RMSEA = (0.3229 ; 0.3750)
P-Value for Test of Close Fit (RMSEA < 0.05) = 0.0000 Expected Cross-Validation Index (ECVI) = 5.8843 90 Percent Confidence Interval for ECVI = (5.1753 ; 6.6670)
ECVI for Saturated Model = 1.3069 ECVI for Independence Model = 13.0051
Chi-Square for Independence Model with 55 Degrees of Freedom = 1291.5196 Independence AIC = 1313.5196 Model AIC = 594.3185 Saturated AIC = 132.0000 Independence CAIC = 1353.3943 Model CAIC = 684.9428 Saturated CAIC = 371.2482 Normed Fit Index (NFI) = 0.4887 Non-Normed Fit Index (NNFI) = 0.3280 Parsimony Normed Fit Index (PNFI) = 0.3643
Comparative Fit Index (CFI) = 0.4991 Incremental Fit Index (IFI) = 0.5047
Relative Fit Index (RFI) = 0.3140 Critical N (CN) = 10.9332
Root Mean Square Residual (RMR) = 0.04572 Standardized RMR = 0.2074
Goodness of Fit Index (GFI) = 0.5051 Adjusted Goodness of Fit Index (AGFI) = 0.2033 Parsimony Goodness of Fit Index (PGFI) = 0.3138
MODIF 20
OUTPUT LISREL
Raw Data from file 'G:\data2\OLAH DATA\LN semua jg.psf' Sample Size = 102
Latent Variables DOMESTIK ASING PRESTASI Relationships X1 = DOMESTIK X2 = DOMESTIK X3 = DOMESTIK X4 = DOMESTIK X5 = ASING X6 = ASING X7 = ASING X8 = ASING Y1 = PRESTASI Y2 = PRESTASI Y3 = PRESTASI
PRESTASI = DOMESTIK ASING Set Error Variance of X4 to 0.001 Set Error Variance of X6 to 0.001 Set Covariance of X8 and X7 Set Covariance of X8 and Y1 Set Covariance of X7 and Y1 Number of Decimals = 4 Wide Print Print Residuals Path Diagram End of Problem Sample Size = 102 MODIF 20 Number of Iterations = 26
LISREL Estimates (Maximum Likelihood) Measurement Equations Y1 = 0.5879*PRESTASI, Errorvar.= 0.06241 , Rý = 0.8470 (0.01040) 5.9996 Y2 = 1.0639*PRESTASI, Errorvar.= 0.5170 , Rý = 0.6865 (0.08527) (0.07396) 12.4771 6.9894 Y3 = 0.5875*PRESTASI, Errorvar.= 0.6783 , Rý = 0.3373 (0.08604) (0.09576) 6.8286 7.0831 X1 = 0.04904*DOMESTIK, Errorvar.= 1.3510 , Rý = 0.001777 (0.1161) (0.1901) 0.4225 7.1063 X2 = 0.1482*DOMESTIK, Errorvar.= 0.04758 , Rý = 0.3158 (0.02414) (0.006714) 6.1385 7.0861
X3 = - 0.03208*DOMESTIK, Errorvar.= 0.004354 , Rý = 0.1912 (0.006962) (0.0006136) -4.6083 7.0960 X4 = - 0.3106*DOMESTIK, Errorvar.= 0.001000, Rý = 0.9897 (0.02208) -14.0669 X5 = 0.3942*ASING, Errorvar.= 0.06039 , Rý = 0.7202 (0.03701) (0.008597) 10.6511 7.0241 X6 = 0.4253*ASING, Errorvar.= 0.001000, Rý = 0.9945 (0.03009) 14.1345 X7 = 0.03684*ASING, Errorvar.= 0.05596 , Rý = 0.02368 (0.02370) (0.007875) 1.5542 7.1055 X8 = 0.03964*ASING, Errorvar.= 0.02065 , Rý = 0.07073 (0.01458) (0.002906) 2.7191 7.1039 Structural Equations
PRESTASI = - 0.7677*DOMESTIK + 0.2252*ASING, Errorvar.= 0.01742 , Rý = 0.9826 (0.1861) (0.1834) (0.01126)
-4.1258 1.2280 1.5472
Goodness of Fit Statistics Degrees of Freedom = 40
Minimum Fit Function Chi-Square = 381.3140 (P = 0.0)
Normal Theory Weighted Least Squares Chi-Square = 328.5500 (P = 0.0) Estimated Non-centrality Parameter (NCP) = 288.5500
90 Percent Confidence Interval for NCP = (234.4538 ; 350.1216) Minimum Fit Function Value = 3.7754
Population Discrepancy Function Value (F0) = 2.8569 90 Percent Confidence Interval for F0 = (2.3213 ; 3.4666) Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA) = 0.2673 90 Percent Confidence Interval for RMSEA = (0.2409 ; 0.2944)
P-Value for Test of Close Fit (RMSEA < 0.05) = 0.0000 Expected Cross-Validation Index (ECVI) = 3.7678 90 Percent Confidence Interval for ECVI = (3.2322 ; 4.3774)
ECVI for Saturated Model = 1.3069 ECVI for Independence Model = 13.0051
Chi-Square for Independence Model with 55 Degrees of Freedom = 1291.5196 Independence AIC = 1313.5196 Model AIC = 380.5500 Saturated AIC = 132.0000 Independence CAIC = 1353.3943 Model CAIC = 474.7993 Saturated CAIC = 371.2482
Normed Fit Index (NFI) = 0.7048 Non-Normed Fit Index (NNFI) = 0.6205 Parsimony Normed Fit Index (PNFI) = 0.5125
Comparative Fit Index (CFI) = 0.7240 Incremental Fit Index (IFI) = 0.7273
Relative Fit Index (RFI) = 0.5940 Critical N (CN) = 17.8702
Root Mean Square Residual (RMR) = 0.03618 Standardized RMR = 0.1337
Goodness of Fit Index (GFI) = 0.6268 Adjusted Goodness of Fit Index (AGFI) = 0.3843 Parsimony Goodness of Fit Index (PGFI) = 0.3799
MODIF 25
OUTPUT
Raw Data from file 'G:\data2\OLAH DATA\LN semua jg.psf' Sample Size = 102
Latent Variables DOMESTIK ASING PRESTASI Relationships X1 = DOMESTIK X2 = DOMESTIK X3 = DOMESTIK X4 = DOMESTIK X5 = ASING X6 = ASING X8 = ASING Y1 = 1*PRESTASI Y2 = PRESTASI Y3 = PRESTASI
PRESTASI = DOMESTIK ASING Set Error Variance of X4 to 0.001 Set Error Variance of X6 to 0.001 Set Covariance of X4 and X3 Set Covariance of X5 and Y1 Set Covariance of X8 and Y1 Number of Decimals = 4 Wide Print Print Residuals Path Diagram End of Problem Sample Size = 102 MODIF 25 Number of Iterations = 31
LISREL Estimates (Maximum Likelihood) Measurement Equations Y1 = 1.0000*PRESTASI, Errorvar.= 0.04812 , Rý = 0.8756 (0.007626) 6.3097 Y2 = 1.8321*PRESTASI, Errorvar.= 0.5126 , Rý = 0.6891 (0.1407) (0.07338) 13.0230 6.9857 Y3 = 1.0031*PRESTASI, Errorvar.= 0.6828 , Rý = 0.3328 (0.1465) (0.09633) 6.8453 7.0886 X1 = 0.05241*DOMESTIK, Errorvar.= 1.3507 , Rý = 0.002029 (0.1157) (0.1901) 0.4529 7.1063 X2 = 0.1484*DOMESTIK, Errorvar.= 0.04752 , Rý = 0.3166 (0.02408) (0.006688)
6.1622 7.1052 X3 = - 0.02770*DOMESTIK, Errorvar.= 0.004514 , Rý = 0.1453 (0.007008) (0.0006333) -3.9528 7.1279 X4 = - 0.3106*DOMESTIK, Errorvar.= 0.001000, Rý = 0.9897 (0.02208) -14.0668 X5 = 0.3922*ASING, Errorvar.= 0.06120 , Rý = 0.7154 (0.03701) (0.008699) 10.5966 7.0354 X6 = 0.4253*ASING, Errorvar.= 0.001000, Rý = 0.9945 (0.03009) 14.1345 X8 = 0.03983*ASING, Errorvar.= 0.02063 , Rý = 0.07141 (0.01458) (0.002903) 2.7310 7.1042 Structural Equations
PRESTASI = - 0.3633*DOMESTIK + 0.2183*ASING, Errorvar.= 0.001423 , Rý = 0.9958 (0.1270) (0.1269) (0.003755)
-2.8601 1.7200 0.3790
Goodness of Fit Statistics Degrees of Freedom = 31
Minimum Fit Function Chi-Square = 235.4518 (P = 0.0)
Normal Theory Weighted Least Squares Chi-Square = 225.2547 (P = 0.0) Estimated Non-centrality Parameter (NCP) = 194.2547
90 Percent Confidence Interval for NCP = (150.2987 ; 245.6994) Minimum Fit Function Value = 2.3312
Population Discrepancy Function Value (F0) = 1.9233 90 Percent Confidence Interval for F0 = (1.4881 ; 2.4327) Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA) = 0.2491 90 Percent Confidence Interval for RMSEA = (0.2191 ; 0.2801)
P-Value for Test of Close Fit (RMSEA < 0.05) = 0.0000 Expected Cross-Validation Index (ECVI) = 2.7055 90 Percent Confidence Interval for ECVI = (2.2703 ; 3.2148)
ECVI for Saturated Model = 1.0891 ECVI for Independence Model = 11.5418
Chi-Square for Independence Model with 45 Degrees of Freedom = 1145.7232 Independence AIC = 1165.7232 Model AIC = 273.2547 Saturated AIC = 110.0000 Independence CAIC = 1201.9729 Model CAIC = 360.2540 Saturated CAIC = 309.3735
Normed Fit Index (NFI) = 0.7945 Non-Normed Fit Index (NNFI) = 0.7304 Parsimony Normed Fit Index (PNFI) = 0.5473
Comparative Fit Index (CFI) = 0.8143 Incremental Fit Index (IFI) = 0.8166
Relative Fit Index (RFI) = 0.7017 Critical N (CN) = 23.3896
Root Mean Square Residual (RMR) = 0.03508 Standardized RMR = 0.1101
Goodness of Fit Index (GFI) = 0.6907 Adjusted Goodness of Fit Index (AGFI) = 0.4513 Parsimony Goodness of Fit Index (PGFI) = 0.3893
OUTPUT LISREL MODIF 29
Raw Data from file 'G:\data2\OLAH DATA\LN semua jg.psf' Sample Size = 102
Latent Variables DOMESTIK ASING PRESTASI Relationships X1 = DOMESTIK X2 = DOMESTIK X3 = DOMESTIK X4 = DOMESTIK X5 = ASING X6 = ASING X8 = ASING Y1 = 1*PRESTASI Y2 = PRESTASI Y3 = PRESTASI
PRESTASI = DOMESTIK ASING Set Error Variance of X4 to 0.001 Set Error Variance of X6 to 0.001 Set Covariance of X4 and X3 Set Covariance of X5 and Y1 Set Covariance of X8 and Y1 Set Covariance of X8 and X5 Set Covariance of X8 and X3 Set Covariance of X2 and Y1 Set Covariance of X3 and Y2 Number of Decimals = 4 Wide Print Print Residuals Path Diagram End of Problem Sample Size = 102 OUTPUT LISREL Number of Iterations = 28
LISREL Estimates (Maximum Likelihood) Measurement Equations Y1 = 1.0000*PRESTASI, Errorvar.= 0.06298 , Rý = 0.8445 (0.009270) 6.7941 Y2 = 1.8058*PRESTASI, Errorvar.= 0.5345 , Rý = 0.6759 (0.1468) (0.07622) 12.3016 7.0129 Y3 = 0.9831*PRESTASI, Errorvar.= 0.6930 , Rý = 0.3229 (0.1471) (0.09708) 6.6840 7.1386 X1 = 0.05467*DOMESTIK, Errorvar.= 1.3505 , Rý = 0.002208 (0.1151) (0.1900)
0.4750 7.1065 X2 = 0.1467*DOMESTIK, Errorvar.= 0.04800 , Rý = 0.3097 (0.02407) (0.006739) 6.0956 7.1220 X3 = - 0.02680*DOMESTIK, Errorvar.= 0.004547 , Rý = 0.1364 (0.007014) (0.0005467) -3.8215 8.3169 X4 = - 0.3106*DOMESTIK, Errorvar.= 0.001000, Rý = 0.9897 (0.02208) -14.0669 X5 = 0.3928*ASING, Errorvar.= 0.06008 , Rý = 0.7198 (0.03687) (0.008539) 10.6525 7.0356 X6 = 0.4253*ASING, Errorvar.= 0.001000, Rý = 0.9945 (0.03009) 14.1345 X8 = 0.03974*ASING, Errorvar.= 0.01952 , Rý = 0.07484 (0.01418) (0.002496) 2.8032 7.8191 Structural Equations
PRESTASI = - 0.5863*DOMESTIK - 0.002237*ASING, Errorvar.= 0.0008416, Rý = 0.9975
(0.1193) (0.1142) (0.003182) -4.9160 -0.01958 0.2645
Goodness of Fit Statistics Degrees of Freedom = 27
Minimum Fit Function Chi-Square = 91.8471 (P = 0.00)
Normal Theory Weighted Least Squares Chi-Square = 92.8106 (P = 0.00) Estimated Non-centrality Parameter (NCP) = 65.8106
90 Percent Confidence Interval for NCP = (40.2281 ; 98.9898) Minimum Fit Function Value = 0.9094
Population Discrepancy Function Value (F0) = 0.6516 90 Percent Confidence Interval for F0 = (0.3983 ; 0.9801) Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA) = 0.1553 90 Percent Confidence Interval for RMSEA = (0.1215 ; 0.1905)
P-Value for Test of Close Fit (RMSEA < 0.05) = 0.0000 Expected Cross-Validation Index (ECVI) = 1.4734 90 Percent Confidence Interval for ECVI = (1.2201 ; 1.8019)
ECVI for Saturated Model = 1.0891 ECVI for Independence Model = 11.5418
Chi-Square for Independence Model with 45 Degrees of Freedom = 1145.7232 Independence AIC = 1165.7232
Model AIC = 148.8106 Saturated AIC = 110.0000
Independence CAIC = 1201.9729 Model CAIC = 250.3099 Saturated CAIC = 309.3735 Normed Fit Index (NFI) = 0.9198 Non-Normed Fit Index (NNFI) = 0.9018 Parsimony Normed Fit Index (PNFI) = 0.5519
Comparative Fit Index (CFI) = 0.9411 Incremental Fit Index (IFI) = 0.9420
Relative Fit Index (RFI) = 0.8664 Critical N (CN) = 52.6432
Root Mean Square Residual (RMR) = 0.03533 Standardized RMR = 0.08621
Goodness of Fit Index (GFI) = 0.8447 Adjusted Goodness of Fit Index (AGFI) = 0.6837 Parsimony Goodness of Fit Index (PGFI) = 0.4147