Slide 1

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Chapter

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7

Global Climate Change

Course Teacher Dr. A. R. Sarker Department of Economics

The University of Rajshahi

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Focus of this chapter Focus of this chapter

o What are the impacts of global What are the impacts of global

warming/ global climate change?

o What consequences can we expect in What consequences can we expect in the future?

the future?

o Can economic theory help evaluate Can economic theory help evaluate the impact of climate change?

the impact of climate change?

o How can we model the long-term How can we model the long-term impacts of climate change?

impacts of climate change?

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Overview Overview

o Introduction to Climate Introduction to Climate Change

Change

• Causes of Global Causes of Global Climate Change Climate Change

o Effects of Climate ChangeEffects of Climate Change

• Melting Ice and Rising Melting Ice and Rising Sea Level

Sea Level

• Changes in Changes in

Precipitation Patterns Precipitation Patterns

• Effects on OrganismsEffects on Organisms

• Effects on Human Effects on Human Health

Health

• Effects on AgricultureEffects on Agriculture

o Dealing with Global Dealing with Global Climate Change

Climate Change

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CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF

CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE



Scientists have been aware since the nineteenth century of the

planetary impacts of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.



In recent decades, concern has grown over the issue of global

climate change caused by

increased accumulations of these

gases

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Causes Causes

o Greenhouse gas concentrations Greenhouse gas concentrations increasing

increasing

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o

Increased concentration of CO Increased concentration of CO

₂₂

(right)

•

Burning fossil fuels in cars, Burning fossil fuels in cars, industry and homes

industry and homes

•

Deforestation Deforestation

•

Burning of forests Burning of forests

Causes

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Causes

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CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES

OF CLIMATE CHANGE OF CLIMATE CHANGE

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CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES

The atmosphere is a global

commons into

which individuals and firms can

release pollution.

Global pollution creates a “public bad” affecting

everyone—a negative

externality with a wide impact

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CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES

Cumulative or stock pollutant A pollutant that

does not dissipate or degrade

significantly over time and can

accumulate in the environment, such as CO2 and CFC

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Trends in Global Carbon Trends in Global Carbon

Emissions Emissions

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Emissions Emissions

^Coal burning is

currently responsible for about 42 percent of global carbon

emissions.

Liquid fuels (primarily oil) are the source of

another 33 percent.

Combustion of natural gas accounts for 19

percent, with 6

percent from cement production and gas flaring.

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Trends in Global Carbon Trends in Global Carbon

Emissions Emissions

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Emissions Emissions

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Emissions Emissions

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Trends and Projections for Global Trends and Projections for Global

Climate Climate

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Climate Change- Climate Change-

Mean Annual Global Temperature 1960- Mean Annual Global Temperature 1960-

20052005

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Climate Climate

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Climate Climate

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Evidence of Climate Change

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Evidence of Climate Change Evidence of Climate Change

The five warmest years in the global record have all come in the 2010s

The 10 warmest years on record have all come since 1998

The 20 warmest years on record have all come since 1995

Reliable temperature records began in 1850 and our world is now

about one degree Celcius hotter than it was in the period between 1850 and

1900 – commonly referred to as the

"pre-industrial" average.

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Impacts of Climate Change Impacts of Climate Change

Livelihood Impacts of Temperature Livelihood Impacts of Temperature

Changes Changes

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Impacts of Climate Change Impacts of Climate Change

Livelihood Impacts of Rainfall Changes Livelihood Impacts of Rainfall Changes

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Winners and Losers of Climate Winners and Losers of Climate

Change Change

Winners



Canada



Northeastern U.S.



Russia



Northeastern Europe

Losers Losers

Africa, Asia Africa, Asia

US – Midwest, SW US – Midwest, SW Low lying areas

Low lying areas Bangladesh Bangladesh

Indonesia Indonesia

US – Atlantic, Gulf US – Atlantic, Gulf

coast coast

Geographic

Impact

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Haves vs. have nots Haves vs. have nots

o WinnersWinners

• Developed Developed Countries Countries

• Can afford the Can afford the costs to avoid costs to avoid

damage damage

(mitigation) (mitigation)

• Or to adapt to Or to adapt to new climate new climate (adaptation) (adaptation)

o LosersLosers

• Developing Developing Countries Countries

• Cannot afford costs Cannot afford costs of mitigation or

of mitigation or adaptation

adaptation

• Often also the most Often also the most vulnerable due to vulnerable due to

location or reliance location or reliance

on agriculture on agriculture

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Areas of the economy affected Areas of the economy affected

most most

o WinnersWinners

o For geographies that For geographies that benefit from climate benefit from climate change:

change:

• Agriculture: CO2 can Agriculture: CO2 can increase crop

increase crop

productivity, shift of productivity, shift of

crop or prime yield crop or prime yield

• Ex: wheat to cornEx: wheat to corn – Grapes/wine Grapes/wine

making making

• Tourism increaseTourism increase

• Property values increaseProperty values increase

o LosersLosers

o For geographies that For geographies that are harmed by climate are harmed by climate

change change

• Agriculture: crop Agriculture: crop failures due to failures due to

extreme heat or lack extreme heat or lack

of water of water

• Less tourismLess tourism

• Property values Property values decrease

decrease

• Extreme weather Extreme weather

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ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE

CHANGE CHANGE

Some of the predicted effects are:

Loss of land area, including

beaches and wetlands, to sea-level rise

Loss of species and forest area, including coral reefs and wetlands

Disruption of water supplies to cities and agriculture

Health damage and deaths from heat waves and spread of tropical diseases

Increased costs of air conditioning

Loss of agricultural output due to drought

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Effects on Organisms - Coral Effects on Organisms - Coral

Reefs Reefs

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Some beneficial outcomes might include:

Increased agricultural production in cold climates

Lower heating costs

Less deaths from exposure to cold

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In addition to these effects, there are

some other, less predictable but possibly more damaging effects, including

Disruption of weather patterns, with

increased frequency of hurricanes and other extreme weather events

A possible rapid collapse of the

Greenland and West Antarctic Ice

Sheets, which would raise sea levels by 12 meters or more, drowning major

coastal cities

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Areas of the Bangladesh economy Areas of the Bangladesh economy

affected

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Responses to global Responses to global

climate change climate change

o To avoid the worst of climate change, To avoid the worst of climate change,

COCO₂₂ levels must be stabilized at 550ppm levels must be stabilized at 550ppm

o Two ways to attempt to manage climate Two ways to attempt to manage climate change

change

Preventive strategies and Adaptive Preventive strategies and Adaptive

strategies strategies Preventive Preventive

strategies/measures/Mitigation (causes) strategies/measures/Mitigation (causes) Actions designed to reduce the extent of Actions designed to reduce the extent of

climate change by reducing projected climate change by reducing projected

emissions of greenhouse gases emissions of greenhouse gases

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Responses to global Responses to global

climate change climate change

o To avoid the worst of climate change, COTo avoid the worst of climate change, CO₂₂ levels must be stabilized at 550ppm

levels must be stabilized at 550ppm

o Two ways to attempt to manage climate Two ways to attempt to manage climate change

change

Preventive strategies and Adaptive Preventive strategies and Adaptive

strategies strategies

Adaptive strategies/measures/ Adaptation Adaptive strategies/measures/ Adaptation

(impacts) (impacts)

Actions designed to reduce the magnitude or Actions designed to reduce the magnitude or risk of damages from global climate change.

risk of damages from global climate change.

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Relationship Between Mitigation Relationship Between Mitigation

and Adaptation and Adaptation

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Relationship Between Mitigation Relationship Between Mitigation

and Adaptation and Adaptation

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Dealing with Global Climate Dealing with Global Climate

Change- Mitigation Change- Mitigation

o Locate/invent alternative fuels to fossil Locate/invent alternative fuels to fossil fuels

fuels

o Increase efficiency of cars and trucksIncrease efficiency of cars and trucks

o Sequestering carbon before it is Sequestering carbon before it is emitted

emitted

o Plant and Maintain trees to naturally Plant and Maintain trees to naturally sequester carbon

sequester carbon

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Global Climate Change- Global Climate Change-

Mitigation Mitigation

Economic Options Economic Options

Carbon Tax Carbon Tax

A per-unit tax on goods and services based A per-unit tax on goods and services based on the quantity of carbon dioxide emitted on the quantity of carbon dioxide emitted

during the production or consumption during the production or consumption

process process

In this case, what is called for is a

In this case, what is called for is a carbon carbon tax, levied on carbon-based fossil fuels tax, levied on carbon-based fossil fuels

in proportion to the amount of carbon in proportion to the amount of carbon

associated with their production and associated with their production and useuse

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Tradable Permits Tradable Permits

A carbon trading scheme can be A carbon trading scheme can be

implemented at the state or implemented at the state or

national level, or could include national level, or could include

multiple countries.

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Carbon tax vs. Tradable Permits Carbon tax vs. Tradable Permits

In general, a carbon tax is considered simpler In general, a carbon tax is considered simpler

to understand and more transparent than a to understand and more transparent than a

cap-and-trade approach. Tradable permits cap-and-trade approach. Tradable permits

systems can be complex and require new systems can be complex and require new

bureaucratic institutions to operate bureaucratic institutions to operate

..

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Carbon tax vs. Tradable Permits Carbon tax vs. Tradable Permits

A carbon tax could probably be implemented A carbon tax could probably be implemented

more quickly. Given the need to address more quickly. Given the need to address

climate change as soon as possible, it may be climate change as soon as possible, it may be

inadvisable to spend years working out the inadvisable to spend years working out the

details and implementation of a cap-and- details and implementation of a cap-and-

trade program.

..

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Other Policy Tools: subsidies, standards, R &D, Other Policy Tools: subsidies, standards, R &D,

technology transfer technology transfer Subsidies

Subsidies

o Shifting subsidies from carbon-based to non–carbon-based Shifting subsidies from carbon-based to non–carbon-based fuels

fuels

Standards Standards

o The use of The use of efficiency standards for machinery and efficiency standards for machinery and appliances, and fuel-economy standards or

appliances, and fuel-economy standards or requirements for low-carbon fuels.

requirements for low-carbon fuels.

..

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Other Policy Tools: subsidies, standards, R &D, Other Policy Tools: subsidies, standards, R &D,

technology transfer technology transfer R & D

R & D

o Research and development (R&D) expenditures promoting Research and development (R&D) expenditures promoting the commercialization of alternative technologies

the commercialization of alternative technologies

Technology Transfer Technology Transfer

o Technology transfer Technology transfer to developing countries to developing countries

..

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Reduction of Carbon Emissions Reduction of Carbon Emissions

by yourself by yourself

7 Instant Ways To Reduce Your Carbon 7 Instant Ways To Reduce Your Carbon

Footprint Footprint

o Stop Eating (or Eat Less) Meat. The single Stop Eating (or Eat Less) Meat. The single most effective action you can take to combat most effective action you can take to combat

climate change is to stop eating meat. ...

o Unplug Your Devices. ...Unplug Your Devices. ...

o Drive Less. ...Drive Less. ...

o Don't Buy “Fast Fashion” ...Don't Buy “Fast Fashion” ...

o Plant a Garden. ...Plant a Garden. ...

o Eat Local (and Organic) ...Eat Local (and Organic) ...

o Line-Dry Your ClothesLine-Dry Your Clothes

A carbon

footprint is the amount of

carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere by a particular

human activity

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Reduction of Carbon Emissions Reduction of Carbon Emissions

by yourself by yourself

7 Instant Ways To Reduce Your Carbon 7 Instant Ways To Reduce Your Carbon

Footprint Footprint

o Stop Eating (or Eat Less) Meat. The single Stop Eating (or Eat Less) Meat. The single most effective action you can take to combat most effective action you can take to combat

climate change is to stop eating meat. ...

o Unplug Your Devices. ...Unplug Your Devices. ...

o Drive Less. ...Drive Less. ...

o Don't Buy “Fast Fashion” ...Don't Buy “Fast Fashion” ...

o Plant a Garden. ...Plant a Garden. ...

o Eat Local (and Organic) ...Eat Local (and Organic) ...

o Line-Dry Your ClothesLine-Dry Your Clothes

A carbon

footprint is the amount of

carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere by a particular

human activity

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