Pemodelan Fungsi Transfer Multi Input untuk Meramalkan Pendapatan Pajak Kendaraan Bermotor (PKB) dan Bea Balik Nama kendaraan Bermotor (BBNKB)

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Lampiran 1. Data Realisasi PKB dan Jumlah Kendaraan Per Jenisnya Periode

Januari 2011 sampai dengan Desember 2014

t

Periode

PKB

Jenis Kendaraan

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Lampiran 2 (Lanjutan)

t Periode

31 Jul-13

1.716.895.408

22

161

711

29

642

1.570

32 Agust-13

1.362.782.891

9

121

533

19

475

1.415

33 Sep-13

1.615.646.579

7

108

723

30

570

1.472

34 Okt-13

1.936.167.371

16

196

728

51

685

1.480

35 Nov-13

1.733.916.380

16

135

758

48

575

1.375

36 Des-13

1.855.151.393

18

183

827

35

662

1.332

37 Jan-14

1.651.688.086

21

154

637

19

570

1.351

38 Feb-14

1.680.656.120

14

129

645

37

614

1.479

39 Mar-14

1.885.529.922

10

147

799

27

637

1.729

40 Apr-14

1.699.042.274

19

141

675

24

545

1.430

41 Mei-14

1.572.846.020

14

133

651

27

559

1.332

42 Jun-14

1.521.526.716

18

144

609

28

475

1.269

43 Jul-14

1.574.645.986

20

126

620

33

489

1.353

44 Agust-14

1.706.818.236

14

182

713

38

527

1.538

45 Sep-14

1.776.395.113

16

124

688

56

516

1.596

46 Okt-14

1.926.923.439

15

150

568

50

573

1.663

47 Nov-14

1.804.849.260

15

136

625

45

525

1.539

48 Des-14

4.247.217.206

145

507

1.063

105

1.521

2.730 Lampiran 2. Data Realisasi BBNKB dan Jumlah Kendaraan Per Jenisnya

Periode Januari 2011 sampai dengan Desember 2014

t Periode

BBNKB Jenis Kendaraan

(Rupiah) (Unit)

Sedan

Jeep Mopen/

Minibus

Bus/ Microbus

Pick up/ Truck

(3)

1 Jan-11 45.743.286 3 17 48 4 45 56

2 Feb-11 39.408.250 1 16 71 6 46 58

3 Mar-11 60.730.481 2 29 93 4 60 102

4 Apr-11 67.805.554 5 29 88 3 66 81

5 Mei-11 48.451.614 1 18 50 3 44 52

6 Jun-11 55.343.889 7 15 40 6 59 50

Lampiran 4 (Lanjutan)

T Periode

7 Jul-11 60.988.602 1 14 66 10 41 58

8 Agt-11 45.390.107 4 15 48 5 35 58

9 Sep-11 58.709.015 2 10 90 5 52 69

10 Okt-11 69.547.478 3 21 75 1 64 52

11 Nov-11 82.923.205 8 25 92 4 67 62

12 Des-11 62.244.251 4 25 82 4 49 62

13 Jan-12 50.345.906 4 17 67 1 35 84

14 Feb-12 72.342.223 2 16 79 2 63 59

15 Mar-12 81.280.599 5 19 109 1 68 87

16 Apr-12 82.242.551 10 23 91 5 47 83

17 Mei-12 61.749.112 3 22 70 7 44 88

18 Jun-12 99.611.673 3 18 94 1 54 67

19 Jul-12 106.398.930 2 27 99 5 76 87

20 Agt-12 62.081.885 2 15 71 8 36 102

21 Sep-12 63.865.747 3 14 108 2 48 106

22 Okt-12 94.503.214 1 22 112 3 55 149

23 Nov-12 97.699.809 2 26 106 11 56 98

24 Des-12 78.622.950 6 16 104 7 51 67

25 Jan-13 78.967.502 6 17 74 6 60 103

26 Feb-13 84.796.712 4 17 91 13 47 92

27 Mar-13 69.989.097 1 23 84 3 47 81

28 Apr-13 65.164.061 4 22 66 2 55 122

29 Mei-13 87.738.933 6 33 82 3 40 102

30 Jun-13 71.965.158 2 21 75 5 46 83

32 Jul-13 101.272.270 4 25 98 3 67 117

32 Agt-13 60.752.579 1 12 80 7 35 72

33 Sep-13 61.140.314 1 20 74 4 39 98

34 Okt-13 74.242.455 2 15 74 4 51 112

(4)

36 Des-13 71.609.401 4 13 70 2 48 62

37 Jan-14 75.872.406 7 19 88 1 50 105

38 Feb-14 62.538.671 1 18 52 1 57 95

39 Mar-14 73.472.762 1 27 80 2 60 100

40 Apr-14 68.567.644 1 24 72 7 47 80

41 Mei-14 82.030.479 5 24 78 3 43 79

42 Jun-14 61.254.119 3 22 56 2 36 84

43 Jul-14 68.639.728 1 13 87 2 27 84

Lampiran 5 (Lanjutan)

t Periode

44 Agt-14 77.841.636 3 23 75 2 55 129

45 Sep-14 72.642.224 1 18 97 8 50 103

46 Okt-14 62.737.171 4 20 64 3 40 96

47 Nov-14 82.871.454 5 20 90 3 53 70

48 Des-14 46.736.492 6 17 68 2 29 42

Lampiran 3. Tabel Deret

Input

berdasarkan jumlah kendaraan per jenisnya (

)

dan Deret

Output

Data PKB (

yang Diputihkan

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0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2,0356 17,85216 -53 -5,7 -137 -5,7 13 -5,7 0

-7,51006 2,543614 -30,4865 -35,1569 -82,3234 -33,9467 -9,3055 -36,0461 0 -4,8428 -22,4806 -18,0142 -23,8062 116,930908 -15,6064 -85,0868 -30,159 0 -17,0036 -39,6095 13,21937 -13,973 -99,882622 -3,93182 64,91272 -23,8902 0 -2,78342 -20,4826 29,84649 22,17517 59,2513895 31,24867 20,38727 10,31119 0 -4,1856 -23,3617 -47,511 -20,1053 -204,9633 -19,2946 26,90817 -28,2311 0 -8,9879 -41,7201 -34,9827 -13,4964 59,341318 -8,73495 -2,72417 -24,5677 0 -11,5399 -31,8116 24,29667 15,81622 104,09139 21,5774 -14,6602 2,899648 0 -8,03031 -23,2591 4,935414 -1,38279 -53,691617 -1,23662 19,68436 -11,5285 0

Lanjutan (lampiran 3)

(6)

-13,8953 -75,649 -16,5372 -57,8586 -90,048004 -7,68807 0,274799 -84,924 47,60838 -11,2988 -82,7103 -69,7845 51,08261 38,6915226 -48,1296 23,38584 56,27334 -91,6923 -9,49405 -77,7837 70,01901 -22,0967 -134,40156 27,4895 1,789274 -37,1176 -9,92266 -13,9862 -97,8075 -72,7063 -21,7596 40,6262566 10,71501 -9,22927 -17,7403 -102,351 -9,85609 -74,8637 113,5817 60,41209 -80,967564 10,03173 39,96411 56,24212 -29,1394 -9,29624 -60,8451 -49,6466 -31,4916 25,4307326 -4,57948 -9,41104 -42,7772 41,10003 -9,05157 -69,1069 -87,0654 -28,4852 -93,741583 22,34513 -57,5894 -34,7499 29,67335 -15,0831 -80,8766 73,48937 16,84635 12,6127279 -25,4418 17,03547 18,00162 54,42561

-15,0831 -80,8766 73,48937 16,84635 12,6127279 -25,4418 17,03547 18,00162 54,42561

Lampiran 4. Tabel Deret

Input

berdasarkan jumlah kendaraan per jenisnya (

)

dan Deret

Output

Data BBNKB (

yang Diputihkan

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

(7)

-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,8667 36,92306 0 28,33135 -8,9499 28,82798 -1 28,33135 9,356 36,45 2,01064 12,38139 -10 -12,3839 0,878994 16,88716 0 15,9475 12,58563 12,9 5,60092 19,93697 4 -6,11312 -10,4894 11,16927 5 9,834377 -24,1968 18,49 0,764505 5,986716 10 -1,1395 7,966062 10,38236 7 8,694878 7,224449 7,709 -3,02675 49,84013 -1 30,97029 43,26452 41,66719 -2 39,66516 -11,4933 47,5 0,542695 34,22117 10 1,142544 23,42288 43,09034 -2 40,80771 41,50821 36,55 -1,6729 22,0228 -13 -28,7186 14,45625 14,62211 6 12,08916 -9,55358 18,5 0,929966 -2,27377 4 -11,535 10,37812 3,310385 0 0,554112 5,351157 1,243 -2,05796 31,68589 -3 19,799 30,20052 23,30861 5 20,35312 -16,8672 27,78

-5,68717 4,900462 0 -10,1791 7,934187 13,3072 10 10,17398 -2,71934 8,884 2,454549 24,31305 -10 1,602095 16,58869 15,06785 6 11,77608 -3,96425 19,68 0,292842 14,03993 9 7,640277 -10,0672 24,48718 6,9155 25,68282 40,09187 18,8 0,162248 -41,5766 1 -66,6536 2,539849 -9,80481 12,554 19,7575 -42,2806 -19,0 -6,41166 10,16957 20,82 -1,67796 -39,1491 -25,4606 3,9155 -8,46525 -16,2234 -30,3 -13,4187 -74,998 -12,128 5,106594 -30,3599 -27,2091 0,723 -16,4621 19,41401 -28,5 8,445961 70,42405 -5,82 45,0989 -3,94153 16,68291 0,446 26,19425 -0,81051 14,27 -1,66406 -164,164 -6,218 -108,825 -56,5144 -56,8246 5,1925 -16,2463 -5,32911 -75,0 2,565314 61,97294 -22,82 20,48384 -24,6919 -34,9694 -0,8075 6,686554 -41,5034 -38,0 0,991094 -114,353 22,166 54,97381 -7,98736 -12,608 3,0845 0,102152 1,669651 -22,4 -5,08216 108,5005 1,872 19,15932 -47,5321 -6,51651 3,9155 -5,46389 -8,02948 -1,48 7,711237 -185,631 -7,654 -52,8172 -63,563 -36,7557 4,723 -15,8419 8,394898 -49 5,689366 131,6729 -3 19,32314 -24,56 -28,9693 -4,4695 -18,3377 -4,72333 -23,5

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9,289554 952,4504 25,98543 35,83114 14,04066 1,440368 2,3615 -23,4322 -3,66539 13,83 -7,87242 -1155,54 4,346 -0,54086 6,627226 16,44292 1,385 -7,25042 18,94366 17,57 21,95381 1400,618 -26,4092 -48,3856 19,55348 -20,4394 1,1925 -32,0109 -16,9742 -15,8

Lampiran 5. Tabel Hasil Korelasi Silang antara Masing-masing Deret Input dan

Deret Output PKB

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Lampiran 6. Tabel Hasil Korelasi Silang antara Masing-masing Deret Input dan

Deret Output BBNKB

Lag ccf (a1;b1) ccf(a2;b2) ccf(a3;b3) ccf(a4;b4) ccf(a5;b5) ccf(a6;b6) -15 0,078894 0,196229 -0,39871 -0,06512 -0,0788 0,278951 -14 -0,104715 0,127233 -0,3729 0,032634 -0,04486 -0,28535 -13 0,099883 -0,03264 -0,34886 -0,17815 -0,12494 0,170862 -12 -0,114409 -0,26938 -0,36646 -0,04239 -0,19353 -0,06878 -11 0,113134 0,34129 -0,35956 0,091088 -0,10643 -0,10227 -10 -0,113423 -0,2184 -0,26537 0,020048 0,008736 0,201838 -9 0,104491 -0,02239 -0,31934 0,092406 -0,06369 -0,26911 -8 -0,105221 0,089549 0,021769 0,40697 -0,34853 0,379076 -7 0,077841 0,25921 0,032872 0,210895 0,008838 -0,41419 -6 -0,028395 -0,57427 0,236454 0,13325 -0,01018 0,505647 -5 -0,040171 0,154435 0,109683 0,221923 0,26779 -0,46584 -4 0,113934 0,446625 0,385176 0,23981 -0,24339 0,597719 -3 -0,232374 -0,11793 0,457337 0,150004 0,148878 -0,51506 -2 0,377952 -0,22187 0,284541 0,108477 -0,11889 0,585012 -1 -0,528683 0,003003 0,454298 0,40546 0,152564 -0,4054 0 0,689358 0,379895 0,711775 0,119662 0,278106 0,296191 1 -0,60138 -0,40795 0,459033 0,004387 0,279751 -0,07494 2 0,637055 0,206996 0,355846 0,166585 -0,19357 -0,03503 3 -0,62783 -0,09315 0,320705 0,076326 0,056087 0,198523 4 0,558749 0,084617 0,247525 -0,00483 0,266984 -0,25809 5 -0,353298 -0,28393 0,291759 0,109602 0,080508 0,271029 6 0,116596 0,410306 -0,03358 0,055134 0,11878 -0,3306 7 0,113908 -0,13715 0,225407 0,02094 -0,02242 0,335063 8 -0,283888 -0,106 -0,06454 -0,06938 0,155718 -0,39611 9 0,305519 -0,18688 -0,20889 0,001794 -0,18274 0,357571 10 -0,183301 0,326086 -0,08877 -0,05772 0,130919 -0,40613 11 0,109352 -0,16867 -0,19109 -0,03977 -0,10075 0,255676 12 -0,073383 0,037953 -0,305 -0,05498 0,107705 -0,21429 13 0,001852 0,005385 -0,20801 -0,04486 -0,2933 0,075583 14 0,049397 -0,06399 -0,16253 -0,06013 0,146849 -0,07133 15 0,033886 0,148976 -0,14045 -0,06835 -0,07688 -0,0055

(10)

t

n1t n2t n3t n4t n5t n6t

1 -26,17181 -38,57543 6,07387 11,48542 -13,87619 71,57679 2 1,06877 25,76649 9,66946 -3,55806 -19,66428 -25,25398 3 -9,52070 -12,56305 -41,47056 -17,15657 36,30961 -65,62932 4 -20,76828 -7,13153 30,68785 54,18683 -14,81319 112,49969 5 27,55523 15,53184 8,61271 -46,73493 0,21633 -83,77579 6 0,72052 -8,66345 -30,83736 30,26890 -0,03443 27,99253 7 -9,70271 18,07000 37,81532 -10,12183 -10,11711 47,75763 8 6,35843 -6,83880 -4,13060 -9,67867 19,14755 -87,77621 9 -18,22136 -6,06981 -28,33889 24,41031 -9,61362 78,65493 10 -8,40858 8,93012 23,48570 -34,50037 -0,17317 -26,09324 11 26,03164 -8,82393 -11,36469 24,67580 2,20109 -72,28557 12 -58,43698 -17,80267 -24,46330 -24,89276 4,07309 101,70457 13 27,88608 31,32179 43,65330 -8,43831 -11,62116 -52,84696 14 -17,51859 -34,86142 -42,93289 29,39920 9,69253 -26,71371 15 -11,97653 21,54990 24,87498 -28,54451 -20,58417 106,67957 16 43,47030 -2,03690 12,82967 29,39434 27,44465 -105,75162 17 -34,28650 14,97531 -19,27409 7,72239 -6,77483 37,18949 18 -10,02714 0,86369 41,46789 -28,02505 -10,21390 44,29465 19 0,55936 -43,00373 -34,18318 20,11145 22,59297 -105,45867

Lampiran 8. Tabel Hasil Perhitungan Deret Gangguan

t n21t n22t n23t n24t n25t n26t

(11)

15 122,4266 -22,1358 -8,68658 -8,25125 -20,1698 -34,9494 16 -6,65755 -26,8246 -14,2659 -30,4515 -13,9676 -0,35617 17 -113,787 -13,3839 15,31851 25,0779 16,31699 -17,6152 18 183,5563 39,06098 -8,29933 6,806526 -7,05104 31,80077 19 -269,409 -40,0799 -23,7994 -15,5159 -7,71215 -20,797

Lampiran 9. Model

Deret Input PKB

ARIMA Model: n1t

Final Estimates of Parameters

Type Coef SE Coef T P AR 1 -0,2738 0,2492 -1,10 0,288 MA 1 0,9551 0,2038 4,69 0,000 Constant -5,1007 0,3902 -13,07 0,000 Mean -4,0043 0,3063

Number of observations: 19

Residuals: SS = 3957,17 (backforecasts excluded) MS = 247,32 DF = 16

Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic

Lag 12 24 36 48 Chi-Square 14,0 * * * DF 9 * * * P-Value 0,123 * * *

Type Coef SE Coef T P AR 1 -0,8357 0,1881 -4,44 0,000 Constant -1,241 3,725 -0,33 0,743 Mean -0,676 2,029

(12)

Type Coef SE Coef T P AR 1 -1,1997 0,1534 -7,82 0,000 AR 2 -0,8520 0,1624 -5,25 0,000 Constant 1,213 3,237 0,37 0,713 Mean 0,398 1,061

Type Coef SE Coef T P AR 1 -1,6471 0,1033 -15,95 0,000 AR 2 -0,9777 0,1008 -9,70 0,000 MA 1 -0,8976 0,1853 -4,84 0,000 Constant -0,551 5,347 -0,10 0,919 Mean -0,152 1,475

Type Coef SE Coef T P MA 1 0,9306 0,3291 2,83 0,012 Constant 0,0989 0,4256 0,23 0,819 Mean 0,0989 0,4256

(13)

Type Coef SE Coef T P AR 1 -1,3383 0,0655 -20,42 0,000 AR 2 -0,9997 0,0660 -15,14 0,000 Constant -1,023 3,533 -0,29 0,776 Mean -0,306 1,058

Lampiran 15 Model

Deret Input BBNKB

Type Coef SE Coef T P AR 1 -0,8440 0,1905 -4,43 0,000 MA 1 0,5716 0,2165 2,64 0,018 Constant -2,515 7,663 -0,33 0,747 Mean -1,364 4,156

(14)

Type Coef SE Coef T P AR 1 0,8447 0,1832 4,61 0,000 Constant 2,071 4,324 0,48 0,638 Mean 13,33 27,84

Type Coef SE Coef T P MA 1 0,1422 0,2418 0,59 0,564 Constant -2,479 3,431 -0,72 0,480 Mean -2,479 3,431

(15)

(16)

Lampiran 11. Grafik Cross Correlation Function (CCF) dari deret input dan output

Cross Correlation Function for a11; b11

14

(17)

14

(18)

14

(19)

14

(20)

14

(21)

14

Lampiran 13. Nilai Ramalan BBNKB dan PKB, Grafik Ramalan PKB dan

BBNKB

Periode Tahun Bulan Y21t Y22t Y23t Y4t Y5t Y6t

49

2015

(22)

Periode Tahun Bulan y1 y2 y3 y4 49

2015

Januari 178521580 106221807,6 339467400 360460500 50 Februari 25436142 645304204,9 156064073 413047478,3

51 Maret 224805580,7 501639342,8 39318169 943746782,5

52 April 396095341,9 4580435823 312486690 486616573,1

53 Mei 204825684,2 148756397,6 192945595 749460843,7

54 Juni 233617121,8 6338728406 87349511,1 44051953,83

55 Juli 417200566,8 11211876599 215774027 523034932,9

56 Agustus 318115629 20815410477 12366236,6 595681612

57 September 232590588,4 28683339014 367321145 415676034,1 58 Oktober 575784472,6 44490463745 539195280 75896912,69 59 November 331178053,6 71193172355 10981451 1276339585 60 Desember 52053540,2 1,20333E+11 300223418 100808285,5