Third AWW-NMF Bilateral Dialogue: 15 May – 19 May 16: Report
Author: Dinesh Yadav*
Date: 01 June 2016
The third bilateral dialogue between the National Maritime Foundation (NMF) and the Academy of World Watch (AWW) was held in Beijing and Shanghai, China from 15 May to 19 May 2016. During the Dialogue, discussions were held between the participating delegates on a number of broad themes such as ‘Strategic Environment in the Indo-Pacific’, ‘Politico-diplomatic Relations between China and India’, ‘Economic Interests and Initiatives’ and ‘Naval Presence and Activities’.
Both sides agreed that in recent years the Indo-Pacific has become an arena for maritime interface between China, India and other major powers. China is increasingly looking westward and has launched the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative; on the other hand, India’s ‘Act East’ policy, through initiatives such as the Cotton Route, Project Mausam among others, is gaining salience. Also, the United States is strengthening its presence in the Indo Pacific region through its ‘Pivot to Asia’ strategy. This has led to frequent exchange/interaction between the maritime forces of the three countries in the Indo-Pacific region.
It emerged that the Indo Pacific is too large a geographical space for pre-eminence of any one particular power and all players can coexist. If China, US and India manage their relations amiably and act responsibly, they can contribute to stability in the Indo Pacific region.
consensus that the long pending border issue can be resolved through patience and prudence, whilst the emergent and urgent issues could be handled through increased engagements and constructive dialogues.
The Chinese side highlighted that China considers India as an important partner for cooperation. However, there exists a need to enhance military exchanges and strengthen economic linkages. It was also highlighted that the media on either side should guard against ‘misperceptions and misinterpretation’ of issues leading to ‘misjudgement’ by the political leadership.
On the issue of China-US relations, while there are many convergences, it was stated that the US wants to contain China in the Pacific and is trying to encourage its allies and partners to team up against China. It was emphasised that China is not like the Soviet Union of the Cold War and it would not be possible for the US or any other country to contain China. Accordingly, China is “wary” about the US but not necessarily “alarmed”. Also, a Chinese scholar noted, it is not possible for China to contain India.
The Chinese scholars argued that despite US getting closer to India, making concessions to India on nuclear issuers, preferring India to Pakistan on different strategic issues, there also exists a limit to India-US cooperation. They argued that once India achieves a level of growth similar to that of China, the US attitude towards India may also change and it would then attempt to contain India. However, if India and China cooperate, they will be in a better position to persuade the United States to modify its policies towards Asia favourable to both India and China.
the East Asian economies. India has always pursued the policy of maintaining ‘strategic autonomy’ and will continue to strive for peaceful and stable relationship with all the countries in the region. On the other hand, China’s policy of looking at India through the ‘South Asia prism’ and ‘hyphenating’ with Pakistan are road blocks for the growth of China-India cooperation.
It was agreed that despite cooperation between China and India, competition will naturally feature in the China-India relationship in years to come. However, what is important is how both the countries manage their competition and a three step recommendation was suggested from the Chinese side:
-(a) Clarify the intentions/ interests/concerns of each side. China should acknowledge that India has legitimate interest to develop ties with Southeast Asia, US and Japan for its own national interest. Similarly, India should keep an open mind about China’s relations with Pakistan and its interests in the Indian Ocean Region.
(b) Either side needs to understand the other’s sensitivities and limitations.
(c) Regular dialogues are important to understand each other’s strategic perceptions. It is also important for both sides to go beyond talks and focus more on practical cooperation.
elsewhere. Since the initiative is ‘promoted through’ and ‘dependent’ on mutual cooperation with countries, it is a win-win initiative as cooperation is premised on mutual benefits transcending a zero-sum outcome. However, as per Chinese assessment, India’s attitude towards the initiative is negative as OBOR is seen by many in India as an enhanced or enlarged version of the ‘String of Pearls’. Also, it was observed that China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) does not reflect a change in China’s official position on the issue of Jammu & Kashmir.
The opportunities that OBOR offers to India-China bilateral cooperation were also highlighted. At the regional level, OBOR provides a window of opportunity to China- India cooperation in the shared neighbourhood in South Asia. OBOR’s potential to support and strengthen the domestic economic initiatives such as ‘Make in India’ was also highlighted.
An Indian scholar, whilst addressing the ‘Economic Interests and Initiatives’ explored new avenues of India- China cooperation, challenges and also suggested the way forward. It was highlighted that though India and China share a complex relationship riddled with apprehensions about each other’s policy initiatives, India’s approach towards China was incremental and positive. The same was also reflected in the Indian Government’s policies which are seen to have laid a ‘red carpet’ for Chinese investments. With the renewed thrust for reengaging in the maritime domain through initiatives such as SAGAR and Sagarmala, India is taking all the right steps to invite Chinese investments and PM Modi has stated that it is the right time to ‘come to India’.
also observed that much of the apprehensions surrounding Chinese economic activities in the IOR emerge due to lack of clarity on such initiatives and its security implications. It was held that transparency, along with a change in perception would be useful.
Transparency in key security issues and economic initiatives was reiterated particularly in the context of China’s naval activities in the IOR and the South China Sea. The possibilities of exploring India-China cooperation for evolving a South Asian maritime security mechanism and the potential of India and China to be architects in shaping peace and stability in the region was also highlighted.
To safeguard Chinese interests in the IOR and to address the common challenges, the Chinese scholars suggested that the two countries engage in military cooperation through joint patrol, increased transparency, information sharing, and logistics support. Also, cooperation in maritime operations such as joint rescue evacuation, peace keeping, HADR, refugee management, non-combatant operations etc. was also suggested.
Since the presence of the Chinese Navy in Indian Ocean and that of Indian Navy in Western Pacific was a foregone conclusion, collaboration between the maritime forces of India and China was recommended. To build confidence between the two maritime forces, common consultative mechanisms, confidence building measures, establishment of hotlines, better mutual understanding to follow SOP’s, prior notification of maritime activities, regular cooperative engagements at bilateral level and increased dialogue and exchange were suggested.
The Chinese side gave an account of the tensions in South China Sea (SCS) and its impact on regional security. The Philippines arbitration case and claims by the US that China is militarizing the man-made islands are driving China into a defensive stand on the issue.
The Chinese scholars also expressed concerns regarding emerging trends in the Indo-Pacific regional security structure such as the proposed quadrilateral security cooperation framework between India, US, Japan and Australia, the trilateral security framework between the US, Japan and India.
The major focus of the discussions during the Dialogue was to find ways and means to enhance cooperation and partnership between India and China in the Indo-Pacific region. There was a consensus on the need to uphold security and stability through increased partnership and cooperative mechanisms and transparency.
This Dialogue was refreshingly different from the earlier ones as both sides were willing to accept that there were certain issues for which an immediate solution might not be in sight; yet there is a resolve to continue engaging constructively. Unlike in the past, wherein, each side had fixed positions on various issues, during this Dialogue, each side appeared comfortable in moving away from those positions and discuss a wide array of issues whilst adopting a flexible approach with a spirit of accommodation.
Both sides agreed that there was a need for managing interpretations to improve bilateral relations. Whilst every effort must be made for a win-win outcome in bilateral engagements, even if win-win-win-win is unequal, till such time any side does not lose, those engagements should be acceptable. Each side agreed that cooperation and competition will coexist between India and China. Also, each side must endeavour to engage in a manner such that competition does not dominate cooperation.
