Bagian II GLOBALISASI DAN REGIONALISME - Bagian 2 Globalisasi and Reg 0805

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Bagian II

GLOBALISASI DAN REGIONALISME

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GLOBALIZATION

Globalization

—the growing integration of economies

and societies around the world—has been one of the most hotly-debated topics in international economics over the past few years. Rapid growth and poverty

reduction in China, India, and other countries that were poor 20 years ago, has been a positive aspect of

globalization. But globalization has also generated

significant international opposition over concerns that it has increased inequality and environmental degradation. This site provides access to some of the most recent

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GLOBALIZATION



INTEGRATION



_{What is globalization?}

I prefer to use the term

integration,

because it is more precise than

globalization.

Economic integration

occurs

when countries lower barriers such as

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A PRACTICAL DEFINITION

For most economists globalization primarily means a process of increasing international division of labor and the accompanying integration of national economies through trade in goods and services, cross-border corporate investments and financial flows. This

integration is boosted by technological progress, in particular in transport and communications. Ideally, globalization is a win-win proposition, in which all

economies ultimately benefit through productivity and growth effects. However, it also means that these

economies face rising cross-border competition,

requiring constant change and adjustment. And it is not simply forced upon us, but is rather the result of forces of change that are deeply rooted in human nature: the drive for freedom and a better life, for new discoveries and

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THREE WAVES OF GLOBALIZATION

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CHANGES IN THE PRICE OF

A 3-MINUTE TRANSLANTIC CALL

(in constant US, 1940-2000)

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… AND INDONESIA …

International calling price comparison for selected Asian countries (US$ per 3 minutes)

1996

Current

Source: International Telecommunications Union and operative websites.

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COMMUNICATION AND

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….. BUT INDONESIA IS

MORE EXPENSIVE

Estimated Transport Cost Margins for Exports of Textiles to the U.S.: Using Singapore as a Benchmark, 2000

(Percent)

Indonesia Malaysia

China

0 5 10 15 20

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Stock Value of Global 1000

by Country of Origin

In billions of U.S. dollars, 1996

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Source: Thomson financial Datastream; MSCI

EMERGING

STOCKMARKETS

Although they have bounced back in recent months, emerging stock markets have still done worse than America’s since January 1st_{2000. The S&P 500 index has fallen by 25%. Morgan}

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Source: Thomson financial Datastream; MSCI

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GLOBAL CAPITALIZATION AND

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1990 2001

1. Industrial Bank of Japan 57.1 1. Citigroup 259.7 2. Fuji Bank 52.0 2. American International Group 207.4 3. Mitsui Taiyo Kobe Bank 46.3 3. HSBC Holdings 109.7 4. Sumitomo Bank 46.0 4. Berkshire Hathaway 100.2 5. Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank 44.8 5. Bank of America 99.0 6. Mithsubishi bank 44.0 6. Fannie Mae 79.5 7. Sanwa Bank 41.2 7. Wells Fargo 73.7 8. Nomura Securities 25.5 8. J.P. Morgan Chase 71.7 9. Long-Term Credit Bank 24.8 9. Royal Bank of Scotland 69.4 10. Allianz 24.6 10. UBS 67.1 11. Tokai Bank 21.3 11. Allianz 62.9 12. Mitsubhisi Tryst & Banking 17.2 12. Morgan Stanley Dean Witter 61.4 13. Deutsche Bank 16.4 13. Llyods TSB 60.3 14. American International Group 16.3 14. Barclays 55.2 15. Bank of Tokyo 15.9 15. Credit Sulse 51.3

Source: Morgan Stanly Capital International

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DECADE MAKES

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Source: Obstfeld and Taylor

FULL CIRCLE

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FOREIGN CURRENCY

TRANSACTION MUSHROOM

1985=

$150 billion per day

Late 1990s=

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The Fifth of the world’s people living in the

highest income countries now have 86% of world

output-the bottom fifth just 1%, 74 percent of

world telephone lines - to bottom fifth just 1.5%.

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Q: What’s the difference between

Tanzania and Goldman Sachs?

A: One is an African country that

makes $2.2 billion a year and

shares it among 25 million people.

The other is an investment bank

that makes $2.6 billion and shares

most of it between 161 people

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JARINGAN BANK INTERNASIONAL

BANK OF ENGLAND

MIDLANDS

SWISS BANKS

BANK OF FRANCE

LEHMAN

BANK OF AUSTRIA

ISRAEL MOSES BANK OF ITALY

INTERNATIONAL LOANS ALL OVER THE WOLRD OTTAMAN EASTMAN

BANK OF AMERICA

GOLDMAN LAZARD FRERES

KUHN-LOEB

MORGAN

CHASE-MANHATTAN

FIRST CITY NATIONAL

SDR SDR SDR

ROCKEFELLERS

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THE

ROCKEFELLER EMPIRE New York Times Washington Post Los Angeles Times New York Post McGraw-Hill Simon & Shuster Harper Bros

Book of the month Saturday Review Business week

INSURANCE

Metropolitan Life Equitable Life New York Life

MOTORS CLUB OF ROME

UNITED NATIONS

CITY BANK CHEMICAL_BANK

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FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT BY MNCs

By host region-in billions of U.S. dollars, 1988 and 1998

Source: U.S. Center on International Corporations, World Investment Report, 1998

$500

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GLOBAL PRIVATIZATION PROCEEDS

(US$ billion)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Non OECD Countries OECD Countries Total

Source: Mahboobi, 2000 150

100

50

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GLOBAL AMOUNTS RAISED FROM

PRIVATIZATION

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PRIVATIZATION PROCEEDS BY

SECTOR, 1990-99 (US$ billions)

1990-84

Infrastructure Manufacturing Primary Sector Financial

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PRIVATIZATIONS BY MAIN

SECTORS IN NON-OECD

COUNTRIES, 1990-99

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PRIVATIZATION PROCEEDS BY

REGION, 1990-99 (US$ billions)

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WALFARE EFFECTS OF SELLING

Malaysian Airline System Kalang Countainer Terminal

British Airways

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CONCENTRATION OF THE 800

LARGEST CORPORATIONS, 2000

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MAJOR CORPORATIONS AND THE

POOREST COUNTRIES: A COMPARISON,

2000

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SALES OF LARGEST MNCs AND OUTPUT OF

SELECTED COUNTRIES

(in billions of U.S. dollars, 1998)

Source: Country GDP from OECD at 1997 current dollars and exchange rates. MNC Sales from Business Week, July 12, 1999

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WE USED TO GROW TOGETHER,

NOW WE’RE GROWING APART

Real Family Income Growth Adjusted for Inflation

Poorest

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WHO OWN WHAT IN THE USA

Assets

Bottom 90% Top 10%

Top 1%

Stocks (%)

15

84

42 Bonds (%)

9

90

55 Business

Assets (%)

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DIVERGENT PATHS OF DEVELOPING

COUNTRIES IN THE 1990s

-2 0 2 4 6

GDP per capita growth rate (%)

Source: The World Bank, Globalization, Growth, and Poverty: Building an Inclusive World Economy, Washington, D.C. and New York: The World Bank and Oxford University Press, 2002.

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A HUGE INCOME GAP REMAINS

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THE IRONY OF FOREIGN AID

Annual foreign aid to developing countries

Annual government subsidies to agricultural producers in rich countries Annual benefits to poor countries if rich nations liberalize trade

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A F T A



Prinsip

_Prinsip

:

Perdagangan barang lintas Asean bebas hambatan,

baik tariff maupun non-tariff mulai 2002, bukan

2003.



Tiga Kelompok Barang:

_{Tiga Kelompok Barang}

1) Normal

2) Exclusion list: sembarang

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Negara

Biaya Produksi

Dengan

Bea Masuk 50%

FTA A+B

A

50

50 B

40

60

40 C

30

45

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Negara

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BEYOND AFTA (1)



_{Di masa lalu pasar Asean tersegmentasi berdasarkan}

negara, karena setiap negara menerapkan bea masuk

yang relatif tinggi untuk barang-barang impor.



Keadaan ini mendorong MNCs mendirikan fasilitas

_{Keadaan ini mendorong MNCs mendirikan fasilitas}

produksi (pabrik) di masing-masing negara untuk di jual di

pasar yang bersangkutan.



Cara ini dilakukan untuk menerobos barikade tarif bea

_{Cara ini dilakukan untuk menerobos barikade tarif bea}

masuk.



Dengan Afta, pasar Asean menjadi terintegrasi, sehingga

_{Dengan Afta, pasar Asean menjadi terintegrasi, sehingga}

tak ada alasan lagi bagi MNCs untuk mempertahankan

seluruh pabriknya di masing-masing negara Asean.

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BEYOND AFTA (2)



Maka, keputusan strategisnya bagi MNCs ialah memilih

_{Maka, keputusan strategisnya bagi MNCs ialah memilih}

lokasi produksi yang paling baik yang bisa meningkatkan

daya saing di pasar Asean secara keseluruhan.



Barang yang diproduksi di suatu negara akan dipasarkan

_{Barang yang diproduksi di suatu negara akan dipasarkan}

ke seluruh negara Asean.



_{Persaingan di antara negara Asean ialah pada aspek iklim}

_{Persaingan di antara negara Asean ialah pada aspek}

iklim

usaha

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EPA INDONESIA-JEPANG



Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) membuka era

baru hubungan ekonomi Indonesia-Jepang?



EPA sebagai bagian dari Partners for New Challenges

(PNC)



Unsur lainnya dari PNC:

 Strategic Investment Action Plan (SIAP)

 Kemaritiman

 Penanggulangan bencana

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EPA = FTA PLUS

 FTA jadi salah satu alternatif akselerasi liberalisasi perdagangan bebas bilateral di tengah ketakjelasan prospek multilateralisme dan regionalisme (APEC yang didominasi isu nonekonomi).

 Plus-nya menyangkut investment- and trade-related issues seperti antara lain:

 Kemudahan di bidang kepabeanan

 Prosedur dan pelayanan investasi dan perdagangan

 Ketenagakerjaan

 Standardisasi produk

 Competition policy

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PROPORTION OF COUNTRIES WITH

1974 1988 1993 1998