DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose.
We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.
MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK
• Asia: Saham Asia mencapai level tertinggi satu bulan pada hari Kamis setelah Wall Street melangkahi tertinggi lainnya, sementara obligasi rally pada perkiraan (ECB) Bank Sentral Eropa akan memperpanjang kampanye stimulus pada pertemuan kebijakannya.
Risk appetite mendapat dorongan ekstra ketika Cina melaporkan angka perdagangan optimis dengan ekspor dan impor keduanya melewati perkiraan. Impor sumber daya yang sangat kuat, alasan utama untuk harga komoditas melambung lagi.
Pasar sumber daya (heavy) Australia melonjak 1,2 persen, seperti yang terjadi pada indeks MSCI dari saham Asia Pasifik di luar Jepang.
Mencapai level puncak untuk Samsung Electronics membantu mengangkat indeks Korea Selatan 1,2 persen. Nikkei Jepang menguat 0,9 persen, mengabaikan revisi ke bawah yang mengecewakan untuk pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kuartal ketiga.
• Eropa: Saham Eropa naik ke tertinggi dalam sebelas bulan pada Kamis, karena keputusan tak terduga Bank Sentral Eropa untuk memotong pembelian aset bulanan yang membantu bank memperpanjang rally-nya.
ECB bergerak mendorong memperpanjang tanggal imbal hasil obligasi zona euro yang secara meluas menguat, yang pada gilirannya lebih didorong saham perbankan dengan indeks Bank STOXX 600 Eropa naik 2,3 persen, di area untuk mingguan terbaik dalam lima tahun.
Saham Inggris naik secara keseluruhan pada hari Kamis - meskipun tidak sebanyak saham Eropa setelah Bank Sentral Eropa memperpanjang program stimulus - sementara perusahaan outsourcing Kapita jatuh setelah peringatan laba.
Indeks blue chip FTSE 100 naik 0,4 persen pada penutupan 6,931.55 poin, mencapai tingkat tertinggi dalam satu bulan, meskipun zona euro blue chips melampaui saham Inggris untuk mengakhiri 1,4 persen lebih tinggi.
• AS & Global Markets: Imbal hasil obligasi AS naik dan euro merosot pada hari Kamis setelah Bank Sentral Eropa mengatakan akan memperpanjang program pembelian obligasi tapi mengejutkan investor dengan menghitung kembali pada berapa banyak itu akan dihabiskan setiap bulannya. Saham Wall Street ditutup lebih tinggi.
Euro menunjukkan penurunan persentase terbesar satu hari terhadap dolar sejak Juni setelah ECB mengatakan akan mengurangi program pembelian obligasi menjadi 60 miliar euro sebulan dari 80 miliar, tapi diperpanjang dari bulan April sampai Desember 2017.
Presiden ECB Mario Draghi mengatakan itu tidak langsung dari pelonggaran kuantitatif (QE) tapi ini memang tidak sepenuhnya menjamin kembali investor fixed income.
Indeks saham S & P 500 naik, dengan dorongan terbesar dari keuangan, yang diikuti oleh sektor bahan baku.
Minyak berjangka capai penurunan di level tiga hari di tengah berkembangnya optimisme bahwa produsen non-OPEC mungkin setuju untuk memotong output diikuti perjanjian kartel untuk membatasi produksi.
ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016
HIGH / LOW .N225 .KS200 .HSI .DJI /.SPX /.SSEC
RECORD HIGH 38915.87 (29/Dec/89)
295.51 (03/May/11)
31958.41 (30/Oct/07)
18351.36 (19/May/2015)
2134.72 (20/May/2015)
6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 2015 HIGH 20952.71
(24/Jun/2015)
275.11 (24/Apr/2015)
28588.52 (27/Apr/2015)
18351.36 (19/May/2015)
2134.72 (20/May/2015)
5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 2016 HIGH 18951.12
(04/Jan/16)
262.10 (07/Sep/16)
24364.00 (09/Sep/16)
19664.97 (08/Dec/16)
2251.69 (08/Dec/16)
3538.68940 (04/Jan/16) 2016 LOW 14864.01
(24/Jun/16)
222.92 (20/Jan/16)
18278.80 (12/Feb/16)
15450.56 (20/Jan/16)
1810.10 (11/Feb/16)
2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2015 LOW 16592.57
(16/Jan/2015)
217.52 (24/Aug/2015)
20368.12 (29/Sep/2015)
15370.33 (24/Aug/2015)
1867.01 (24/Aug/2015)
2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) RECORD LOW 85.25 (06/Jul/50) 31.96
(16/Jun/98) 58.61 (31/Aug/67) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)
132.93 (23/Nov./82)
325.92200 (29/Jul/94)
Closing Prices – 08 December 2016
CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE
.DJI 19614.81 65.19/ 0.33% .N225 18765.47 268.78/1.45%
/.SPX 2246.19 4.84 / 0.22% .KS200 262.00 5.66/2.21%
/.IXIC 5417.356 23.594/ 0.44% .HSI 22861.84 60.92/0.27%
JPY= 114.01 0.26/ 0.22% /.SSEC 3215.72810 6.51340/0.20%
KRW= 1157.27 13.26 / 1.13% /CLc1 (Oil) 50.96 1.19 / 2.39%
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV.
Mon/05-Dec 04:00 KR FX Reserves* Nov 371.99b N/A 375.17b
05:30 AU AIG Services Index Nov 51.1 N/A 50.5
07:30 AU ANZ Internet Job Ads Nov 1.7% N/A 1.0%
08:45 CN Caixin Services PMI Nov 53.1 52.7 52.4
09:30 HK Nikkei PMI Nov 49.5 N/A 48.2
10:45 JP BOJ Kuroda speaks at Europlace in Tokyo
12:00 JP Consumer Confidence Index* Nov 40.9 43.8 42.3
20:30 US Fed's Dudley Speaks on Economy and Policy in New York 21:25 US Fed's Evans Speaks on Economy and Policy in Chicago
21:45 US Markit Services PMI Final Nov 54.6 N/A 54.7
21:45 US Markit Composite Final PMI Nov 54.9 N/A 54.9
22:00 US Employment Trends* Nov 129.96 N/A 129.0 128.95
22:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Nov 57.2 55.3 54.8
Tue/06-Dec 02:05 US Fed's Bullard to Speak on U.S. Economic Outlook In Arizona
07:30 AU Current Account Deficit* Q3 11.4b 13.70b 15.54b 15.9b
07:30 AU Net Exports Contribution Q3 -0.2% 0.0% -0.2%
10:30 AU RBA Cash Rate* Dec 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
20:30 US International Trade MM $ Oct -42.6b -41.8b -36.4b -36.2b
20:30 US Productivity Revised Q3 3.1% 3.3% 3.1%
20:30 US Labor Costs Revised Q3 0.7% 0.3% 0.3%
22:00 US Factory Orders MM Oct 2.7% 2.6% 0.3% 0.6%
22:00 US Factory Orders Ex Trans MM Oct 0.8% N/A 0.6%
22:00 US Durable Goods Orders R MM Oct 4.6% -3.5% 4.8%
22:00 US Durables Ex Transportation R MM Oct 0.8% N/A 1.0%
22:00 US Nondef Cap Ex-Air R MM Oct 0.2% N/A 0.4%
06 ̴07 Dec N/A CN FX Reserves (Monthly)* Nov 3.052t 3.091t 3121t
Wed/07-Dec 05:30 AU AIG Construction Index Nov 46.6 N/A 45.9
06:00 JP Reuters Tankan DI Dec 16 N/A 14
06:50 JP Foreign Reserves Nov 1219.3b N/A 1242.8b
07:30 AU GDP QQ* Q3 -0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6%
07:30 AU GDP YY* Q3 1.8% 2.5% 3.3%
08:30 JP BOJ Iwata makes a speech in Nagasaki
12:00 JP Leading Indicator MM* Oct 1.0 N/A -0.4
12:00 JP Coincident Indicator* Oct 1.4 N/A 0.2 0.8
22:30 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e -2.389m -1.032m -0.884m
22:30 US EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e 2.501m 1.840m 4.957m
22:30 US EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk w/e 3.425m 1.948m 2.097m
Thu/08-Dec N/A CN Exports YY* Nov 0.1% -5.0% -7.3%
N/A CN Imports YY* Nov 6.7% -1.3% -1.4%
N/A CN Trade Balance USD* Nov 44.61b N/A 49.06b
03:00 US Consumer Credit Oct 16.02b 19.00b 19.29b 21.80b
06:50 JP Bank Lending YY Nov 2.4% N/A 2.4%
06:50 JP Current Account NSA JPY* Oct 1719.9b 1577.2b 1821.0b
06:50 JP GDP Revised QQ Q3 0.3% 0.6% 0.5%
06:50 JP GDP Rev QQ Annualised* Q3 1.3% 2.4% 2.2%
06:50 JP GDP Cap Ex Rev QQ* Q3 -0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
07:30 AU Trade Balance G&S (A$)* Oct -1541m -800m -1227m -1272m
07:30 AU Goods/Services Imports* Oct 2% N/A -1.0%
07:30 AU Goods/Services Exports* Oct 1% N/A 2.0%
12:00 JP Economy Watchers Poll* Nov 52.5 N/A 49.3
20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 258k 258k 268k
20:30 US Jobless Claims 4-wk Avg w/e 252.5k N/A 251.5k
20:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims w/e 2.005m 2.059m 2.081m 2.084m
Fri/09-Dec 06:50 JP Business Survey Index* Q4 N/A 2.9
07:30 AU Housing Finance* Oct -1.0% 1.6%
07:30 AU Invest Housing Finance* Oct N/A 4.6%
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@ErwinRiset-@her1en)
08:30 CN CPI YY* Nov 2.2% 2.1%
08:30 CN CPI MM* Nov N/A -0.1%
08:30 CN PPI YY Nov 2.1% 1.2%
22:00 US Wholesale Inventories MM Oct -0.4% -0.4%
22:00 US Wholesale Sales MM Oct 0.5% 0.2%
22:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Dec 94.5 93.8
22:00 US U. of Mich. Current Conditions Dec 108.5 107.3
22:00 US U. of Mich. Expectations Dec 87.0 85.2
10 Dec ~15 Dec N/A CN M2 Money Supply YY Nov 11.5% 11.6%
10 Dec ~15 Dec N/A CN Outstanding Loan Growth Nov 13.0% 13.1%
10 Dec ~15 Dec N/A CN New Yuan Loans CNY Nov 710.0b 651.3b
10 Dec ~20 Dec N/A CN FDI (YTD) Nov N/A 4.20%
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
SSIamH7 (Nikkei Mar Futures) – Last Trading Date: 09 Mar. 2017
• Penguatan masih berlanjut dalam harian
• Short-term support di 18500 – 18400
• RSI di zona overbought
• Potensi pembukaan gap up (Research – @her1en)
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME
08 Dec SSIpmH7 18715 18865 18640 225 18835 --- 105 0.56 38875
08 Dec SSIamH7 18590 18755 18560 195 18726 18730 276 1.50 37062
07 Dec SSIpmZ6 18510 18665 18490 175 18645 --- 150 0.81 30728
07 Dec SSIamZ6 18440 18500 18410 90 18495 18495 65 0.35 72269
06 Dec SSIpmZ6 18420 18475 18350 125 18460 --- 30 0.16 33010
06 Dec SSIamZ6 18445 18490 18320 170 18430 18430 165 0.90 74881
05 Dec SSIpmZ6 18260 18565 18240 325 18415 --- 150 0.82 45049
05 Dec SSIamZ6 18300 18375 18225 150 18265 18265 55 0.30 55651
02 Dec SSIpmZ6 18340 18410 18245 165 18365 --- 45 0.25 24380
02 Dec SSIamZ6 18450 18475 18310 165 18320 18320 100 0.54 62977
WEEKLY DECEMBER NOVEMBER 2016
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
18665 18225 18750 18225 18660 16095 18945 14770
(07/Dec) (05/Dec) (01/Dec) (05/Dec) (30/Nov) (09/Nov) (04/Jan) (12/Feb)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
RESISTANCE
19980 Reaction high on 2-D chart
19890 High 18/Dec/2015 (Reaction high)
19115 High 30/Dec/2015 (Reaction high)
18945 High 04/Jan/2016
SUPPORT
18640 Low Dec 08
18555 Pivot line (1-H chart)
18410 Reaction low (1-H chart)
18320 Reaction low (1-H chart)
RECOMMENDATION
BUY 18820
SELL ----
STOP LOSS 18700
TARGET
18970 19020
2 Days SSIcm1 27/08/2015 - 30/12/2016 (JAK)
18500
17900
15855
16200 18945
18200
Price JPY
Auto 16.000 16.400 16.800 17.200 17.600 18.000 18.400 18.800
Value JPY
Auto V alue
JPY
Auto
02 16 02 16 03 17 01 17 04 18 01 17 02 16 01 19 03 17 02 16 04 18 01 17 02 16 04 18 01 17 01 16
Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
KSH7 (Kospi Mar Futures) – Exp. Date: 09 Mar. 2017
• Tunjukkan kenaikan dari pergerakan bullish trend channel.
• Resistance berikutnya di 259.65 (Research – @her1en)
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %
CHANGE VOLUME
08 Dec (KSH7) 255.65 258.00 255.50 2.50 257.50 257.50 4.15 1.64 59475
07 Dec (KSZ6) 256.20 256.65 255.60 1.05 256.20 256.20 0.80 0.31 85039
06 Dec 254.10 256.05 254.10 1.95 255.40 255.40 2.70 1.07 116863
05 Dec 252.20 252.95 251.45 1.50 252.70 252.70 0.05 0.02 107584
02 Dec 253.40 253.95 252.25 1.70 252.65 252.65 1.55 0.61 113773
01 Dec 254.55 255.05 253.85 1.20 254.20 254.20 0.05 0.02 88278
WEEKLY DECEMBER NOVEMBER 2016
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
258.00 251.45 258.00 251.45 257.45 246.80 262.50 223.10
(08/Dec) (05/Dec) (08/Dec) (05/Dec) (09/Nov) (09/Nov) (08/Sep) (20/Jan)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
RESISTANCE
261.10 High 11/Oct/2016
260.50 Reaction high on 1-H chart
259.65 Horizontal resistance
258.00 High 08/Dec/2016
SUPPORT
255.50 Reaction low (1-H chart)
254.10 Low 06/Dec/2016
251.45 Low 05/Dec/2016
250.80 Reaction low (1-H chart)
RECOMMENDATION
BUY 257.30
SELL ----
STOP LOSS 256.10
TARGET 258.70
259.30
Daily KSH7 12/07/2016 - 15/12/2016 (JAK)
RSI; KSH7; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential
08/12/2016; 78,599 Value
KRW Mom; KSH7; Trade Price(Last); 14 Auto
08/12/2016; 9,75 Value
KRW Auto
258
252.80 259
244 260.50
Cndl; KSH7; Trade Price
08/12/2016; 255,65; 258,00; 255,50; 257,50 EMA; KSH7; Trade Price(Last); 20 08/12/2016; 251,44 WMA; KSH7; Trade Price(Last); 55 08/12/2016; 251,64
Price KRW
Auto 246 248 250 252 254 256 258
18 25 01 08 16 22 29 05 12 19 26 04 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12
Juli 2016 Agustus 2016 September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016 Des 16
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
HSIZ6 (Hang Seng Dec Futures) – Exp. Date: 29 December 2016
•Rebound breakout 22800 dan saat ini sedang coba uji lagi area resistance krusial di 23000
•Target uptick di 23250
•Potensi pembukaan gap up (Research – @her1en)
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %
CHANGE VOLUME
08 Dec 23042 23146 22810 336 22827 22827 33 0.14 88776
07 Dec 22791 22852 22730 122 22794 22794 89 0.39 69971
06 Dec 22672 22796 22651 145 22705 22705 125 0.55 81727
05 Dec 22576 22650 22375 275 22580 22580 5 0.02 106920
02 Dec 22766 22766 22532 234 22575 22575 319 1.39 90471
01 Dec 22898 23018 22852 166 22894 22893 72 0.32 92553
30 Nov (HSIZ6) 22813 22929 22776 153 22822 22822 18 0.08 90672
WEEKLY DECEMBER NOVEMBER 2016
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
23146 22375 23146 22375 23286 21904 24374 18217
(08/Dec) (05/Dec) (08/Dec) (05/Dec) (01/Nov) (09/Nov) (09/Sep) (12/Feb)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
RESISTANCE
23211 High 02/Nov/2016
23152 High 09/Nov/2016 (Peak)
23018 High 01/Dec/2016
22908 Reaction high (1-H chart)
SUPPORT
22651 Reaction low (4-H chart)
22564 Reaction low (4-H chart)
22375 Low 05/Dec/2016
22276 Low 22/Nov/2016
RECOMMENDATION
BUY 22870
SELL ----
STOP LOSS 22720
TARGET 23060
23120
Daily HSIc1 24/08/2016 - 03/01/2017 (JAK)
22.736 38,2%
22.993 50,0%
23.250 61,8%
24374
21904 24100
22100
22360
Cndl; HSIc1; Trade Price
09/12/2016; 22.818; 22.888; 22.774; 22.848 EMA; HSIc1; Trade Price(Last); 20 09/12/2016; 22.731 WMA; HSIc1; Trade Price(Last); 55 09/12/2016; 22.814
Price HKD
Auto 21.900 22.200 22.500 22.800 23.100 23.400 23.700 24.000
RSI; HSIc1; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential
09/12/2016; 59,938 Value
HKD
Auto Mom; HSIc1; Trade Price(Last); 14
09/12/2016; 502 Value
HKD Auto
29 05 12 19 26 03 11 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 28 03
Agust 16 September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016 Desember 2016
