DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose.
We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.
MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK
Asia: Melemahnya yield Treasury AS pada hari Kamis telah menyeret USD turun dari puncak 13-1/2 tahun sehingga mendorong penguatan bursa Asia. Yield obligasi pemerintah Jepang juga turun dari puncak multi-bulanan setelah Bank of Japan melakukan sebuah operasi khusus pembelian obligasi fixed-rate untuk pertama kalinya, meredam gerak yield yang berlebihan. Di sesi Asia, indeks dolar bergerak di kisaran 100.28 setelah mendaki ke 100.57 (overnight), level tertinggi sejak April 2003. Dolar terapresiasi setelah kemenangan Trump membawa prospek kenaikan suku bunga lebih cepat dari perkiraan. Namun tekanan pada harga obligasi melambat, dengan yield obligasi tenor 10 tahun turun kembali ke 2.197 persen di Asia setelah menembus level tertinggi 11 bulan di atas 2,3% sebelumnya pekan ini. Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang naik 0,1%, namun mencatat turun 1% pekan ini. Indeks Nikkei turun 0,1% usai tembus level tertinggi 9 bulan pada hari Rabu oleh koreksi tajam yen.
Eropa: Saham Italia berkinerja lebih buruk di pasar Eropa yang positif pada hari Kamis, karena saham bank negara merosot ke posisi terendah lima minggu oleh kegelisahan atas referendum reformasi konstitusi bulan depan. Rebound pada saham sumber daya dan energi membantu indeks STOXX 600 untuk naik 0,6%, namun indeks blue-chip FTSE MIB berakhir datar. Perdana Menteri Italia Matteo Renzi, Kamis ia tidak akan ambil bagian dalam upaya apapun untuk membentuk pemerintahan sementara jika ia kalah dalam pemungutan suara pada 4 Desember, memperkuat harapan ia bisa berhenti. Jajak pendapat menunjukkan Renzi akan kalah. Bursa Inggris juga menguat, didukung naiknya saham pertambangan, meskipun Royal Mail turun usai melakukan earnings update. Indeks FTSE 100 berakhir menguat 0,7%, berkinerja sedikit lebih baik dari Eropa.
AS & Global Markets: USD melejit ke level tertinggi 13-1/2 tahun dan indeks saham global terapresiasi pada hari Kamis setelah komentar dari Kepala Fed Janet Yellen mendukung peluang kenaikan suku bunga bulan depan. Juga yang mendukung penguatan USD adalah data ekonomi AS yang memicu ekspektasi percepatan ekspansi ekonomi AS di kuartal keempat.
Indeks dolar melanjutkan penguatannya di sesi sore AS usai komentar Yellen dan terakhir tercatat menguat 0,5%.
Keperkasaan USD telah menekan emas, yang terkoreksi ke level terendah 5-1/2 bulan di $1210.73. Demikian juga dengan harga minyak yang juga melemah tipis.
Bursa AS, yang reli pekan lalu usai kemenangan Donald Trump sebagai presiden AS, juga menguat dipimpin oleh naiknya saham keuangan.
Data ekonomi AS semalam menunjukkan CPI catat kenaikan terbesar dalam 6 bulan di periode Oktober, sementara housing starts naik ke level tertinggi 9 tahun dan jobless claims turun ke level terendah sejak November 1973.
ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016
HIGH / LOW .N225 .KS200 .HSI .DJI /.SPX /.SSEC
RECORD HIGH 38915.87 (29/Dec/89)
295.51 (03/May/11)
31958.41 (30/Oct/07)
18351.36 (19/May/2015)
2134.72 (20/May/2015)
6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 2015 HIGH 20952.71
(24/Jun/2015)
275.11 (24/Apr/2015)
28588.52 (27/Apr/2015)
18351.36 (19/May/2015)
2134.72 (20/May/2015)
5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 2016 HIGH 18951.12
(04/Jan/16)
262.10 (07/Sep/16)
24364.00 (09/Sep/16)
18934.05 (14/Nov/16)
2193.81 (15/Aug/16)
3538.68940 (04/Jan/16) 2016 LOW 14864.01
(24/Jun/16)
222.92 (20/Jan/16)
18278.80 (12/Feb/16)
15450.56 (20/Jan/16)
1810.10 (11/Feb/16)
2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2015 LOW 16592.57
(16/Jan/2015)
217.52 (24/Aug/2015)
20368.12 (29/Sep/2015)
15370.33 (24/Aug/2015)
1867.01 (24/Aug/2015)
2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) RECORD LOW 85.25 (06/Jul/50) 31.96
(16/Jun/98) 58.61 (31/Aug/67) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)
132.93 (23/Nov./82)
325.92200 (29/Jul/94)
Closing Prices – 17 November 2016
CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE
.DJI 18903.82 35.68/ 0.19% .N225 17862.63 0.42/0%
/.SPX 2187.12 10.18 / 0.47% .KS200 250.46 0.14/0.06%
/.IXIC 5333.973 39.389/ 0.74% .HSI 22262.88 17.65/0.08%
JPY= 110.08 1.02/ 0.94% /.SSEC 3208.67750 3.62030/0.11%
KRW= 1179.01 9.32 / 0.80% /CLc1 (Oil) 44.93 0.64 / 1.40%
Page 2 of 6
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST LAST REV
Mon/14-Nov 4:00 KR Export Price Growth YY Oct -1.6 N/A % -8.3
4:00 KR Import Price Growth YY Oct -0.6 N/A % -7.8 -7.7
6:50 JP GDP QQ Q3 0.5 0.2 % 0.2
6:50 JP GDP QQ Annualized Q3 2.2 0.9 % 0.7
8:00 JP BOJ Kuroda speaks in Nagoya
9:00 CN Urban investment (YTD) YY Oct 8.3 8.2 % 8.2
9:00 CN Industrial Output YY Oct 6.1 6.2 % 6.1
9:00 CN Retail Sales YY Oct 10 10.7 % 10.7
11:30 JP Industrial Output Revision Sep 0.6 N/A % 0
11:30 JP Capacity Utility Index Change MM Sep -2.0 N/A % 2.6
Tue/15-Nov : KR Export Growth Revised Oct -3.2 N/A % -3.2
: KR Import Growth Revised Oct -4.8 N/A % -5.4
: KR Trade Balance Revised Oct 6.97 N/A b 7.2
7:30 AU RBA Nov. Meeting Minutes
20:30 US NY Fed Manufacturing Nov 1.5 -2.5 ind -6.8
20:30 US Import Prices MM Oct 0.5 0.4 % 0.1 0.2
20:30 US Export Prices MM Oct 0.2 0.2 % 0.3
20:30 US Retail Sales MM Oct 0.8 0.6 % 0.6 1.0
20:30 US Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM Oct 0.8 0.5 % 0.5 0.7
20:30 US Retail Ex Gas/Autos Oct 0.6 N/A % 0.3 0.5
20:30 US Retail Control Oct 0.8 0.3 % 0.1 0.3
22.00 US Business Inventories M/M Sep 0.1 0.2 % 0.2
Wed/16-Nov 7:30 AU Wage Price Index QQ Q3 0.4 0.5 % 0.5
7:30 AU Wage Price Index YY Q3 1.9 2.0 % 2.1
20:30 US PPI Final Demand YY Oct 0.8 1.2 % 0.7
20:30 US PPI Final Demand MM Oct 0 0.3 % 0.3
20:30 US PPI ex Food/Energy YY Oct 1.2 1.5 % 1.2
20:30 US PPI ex Food/Energy MM Oct -0.2 0.2 % 0.2
21:15 US Industrial Output MM Oct 0 0.2 % 0.1 -0.2
21:15 US Capacity Utilization MM Oct 75.3 75.5 % 75.4
21:15 US Manufacturing Output MM Oct 0.2 0.3 % 0.2
22:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index Nov 63 63 ind 63
22:30 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e 5.274 1.480 m 2.432
22:30 US EIA Weekly Distilled Stocks w/e 0.31 -1.729 m -1.948
22:30 US EIA Weekly Gasoline Stocks w/e 0.746 -0.416 m -2.841
Thu/17-Nov : CN FDI (YTD) Oct 4.2 N/A % 4.2
7:30 AU Employment Oct 9.8 20 k -9.8 -29
7:30 AU Full Time Employment Oct 41.5 N/A k -53 -74.3
7:30 AU Participation Rate Oct 64.4 64.6 % 64.5
7:30 AU Unemployment Rate Oct 5.6 5.6 % 5.6
15:30 HK Unemployment Rate Oct 3.4 N/A % 3.4
20:30 US CPI MM, SA Oct 0.4 0.4 % 0.3
20:30 US CPI YY, NSA Oct 1.6 1.6 % 1.5
20:30 US Core CPI MM, SA Oct 0.1 0.2 % 0.1
20:30 US Core CPI YY, NSA Oct 2.1 2.2 % 2.2
20:30 US CPI Index, NSA Oct 241.73 241.79 ind 241.43
20:30 US Core CPI Index, SA Oct 248.98 N/A ind 248.61
20:30 US Real Weekly Earnings MM Oct 0 N/A % 0.2 0.3
20:30 US Building Permits: Number Oct 1.229 1.198 m 1.225
20:30 US Build Permits: Change MM Oct 0.3 -2.9 % 6.3
20:30 US Housing Starts Number MM Oct 1.323 1.156 m 1.047 1.054
20:30 US House Starts MM: Change Oct 25.5 7 % -9 -9.5
20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 235 257 k 254
20:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. w/e 253.5 N/A k 259.75 260
20:30 US Continued Jobless Claims w/e 1.977 2.038 m 2.041 2.043
20:30 US Philly Fed Business Index Nov 7.6 8 ind 9.7
22.00 US Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@ErwinRiset)
Fri/18-Nov 4:00 KR PPI Growth YY Oct -0.2 N/A % -1.1
4:00 KR PPI Growth Oct 0.2 N/A % 0.2
23:00 US KC Fed Manufacturing Nov N/A ind 18
23:00 US KC Fed Composite Index Nov N/A ind 6
Page 4 of 6
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
SSIamZ6 (Nikkei Dec Futures) – Last Trading Date: 12 Dec. 2016
Reli tembus 18000, hit day high 18040 (SSIpmZ6)
Resistance krusial di sekitar 18500
Waspadai RSI memasuki zona overbought
(Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME
17 Nov SSIpmZ6 17895 18040 17830 210 18035 --- 125 0.70 18330
17 Nov SSIamZ6 17760 17910 17755 155 17910 17910 45 0.25 44520
16 Nov SSIpmZ6 17865 17950 17815 135 17850 --- 15 0.08 27289
16 Nov SSIamZ6 17870 17905 17810 95 17865 17865 230 1.30 49899
15 Nov SSIpmZ6 17635 17810 17615 195 17780 --- 145 0.82 16010
15 Nov SSIamZ6 17680 17725 17610 115 17635 17635 25 0.14 39163
14 Nov SSIpmZ6 17625 17720 17580 140 17650 --- 40 0.23 20433
14 Nov SSIamZ6 17475 17705 17455 250 17610 17610 165 0.95 38461
11 Nov SSIpmZ6 17425 17490 17270 220 17400 --- 45 0.26 28627
11 Nov SSIamZ6 17535 17620 17330 290 17445 17445 120 0.69 76635
WEEKLY NOVEMBER OCTOBER 2016
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
18040 17455 18040 16095 17495 16525 18945 14770
(17/Nov) (14/Nov) (17/Nov) (09/Nov) (27/Oct) (03/Oct) (04/Jan) (12/Feb)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE
18945 High 04/Jan/2016
18545 High 05/Jan/2016
18460 High 06/Jan/2016
18215 High 07/Jan/2016
SUPPORT
17830 Reaction low (1-H chart)
17755 Reaction low (1-H chart)
17580 Reaction low (1-H chart)
17270 Reaction low (1-H chart)
RECOMMENDATION
BUY 17950
SELL ----
STOP LOSS 17825
TARGET 18140
18205
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
KSZ6 (Kospi Dec Futures) – Exp. Date: 08 Dec. 2016
Area support di sekitar 248.88 (50% Fibo. Retracement of wave 235.65 – 262.10) sedang diuji setelah catat intraday low di 248.80
Area support jangka pendek berada di sekitar 246 – 245 (Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %
CHANGE VOLUME
17 Nov 249.90 250.85 248.80 2.05 250.25 250.25 0.20 0.08 94514
16 Nov 251.15 251.70 250.40 1.30 250.45 250.45 0.90 0.36 76094
15 Nov 250.35 251.30 249.55 1.75 249.55 249.55 1.10 0.44 94998
14 Nov 252.20 252.80 250.35 2.45 250.65 250.65 2.05 0.81 108888
11 Nov 253.40 254.00 252.15 1.85 252.70 252.70 2.60 1.02 117516
10 Nov 253.90 255.65 253.10 2.55 255.30 255.30 5.40 2.16 179715
WEEKLY NOVEMBER OCTOBER 2016
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
252.80 248.80 257.45 246.80 261.80 253.95 262.50 223.10
(14/Nov) (17/Nov) (09/Nov) (09/Nov) (06/Oct) (17/Oct) (08/Sep) (20/Jan)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
RESISTANCE
255.65 High 10/Nov/2016
254.00 High 11/Nov/2016
252.80 High 14/Nov/2016
251.90 Reaction high (1-H chart)
SUPPORT
246.80 Low 09/Nov/2016
246.10 Low 11/Jul/2016
245.75 61.8% Fibo. Retracement (235.65 – 262.10)
243.20 Low 08/Jul/2016
RECOMMENDATION
BUY ----
SELL 251.05
STOP LOSS 252.00
TARGET 249.30
248.40
Page 6 of 6
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
HSIX6 (Hang Seng Nov Futures) – Exp. Date: 29 November 2016
Rebound sedang uji area resistance di sekitar 22300
Short-term support di sekitar 21900
(Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %
CHANGE VOLUME
17 Nov 22182 22367 22111 256 22249 22249 36 0.16 104831
16 Nov 22448 22485 22189 296 22213 22213 115 0.52 88569
15 Nov 22255 22412 22225 187 22328 22328 51 0.23 98548
14 Nov 22360 22378 22101 277 22277 22279 212 0.94 112640
11 Nov 22654 22706 22432 274 22489 22489 443 1.93 123368
10 Nov 22852 22940 22775 165 22932 22932 529 2.36 113838
09 Nov 23150 23152 21904 1248 22403 22403 526 2.29 241917
WEEKLY NOVEMBER OCTOBER 2016
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
22485 22101 23286 21904 24077 22707 24374 18217
(16/Nov) (14/Nov) (01/Nov) (09/Nov) (11/Oct) (31/Oct) (09/Sep) (12/Feb)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
RESISTANCE
22942 High 11/Nov/2016 (Reaction high)
22661 Reaction high (1-H chart)
22547 Reaction high (1-H chart)
22485 High 16/Nov/2016 (Reaction high)
SUPPORT
22076 Reaction low (1-D chart)
21904 Low 09/Nov/2016
21798 Low 05/Aug/2016
21650 Pivot line
RECOMMENDATION
BUY ----
SELL 22375
STOP LOSS 22495
TARGET 22100
22000
