DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose.
We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.
MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK
Asia: Saham Asia dan emas melemah di hari Rabu sedangkan yield obligasi bergerak dekat level tertinggi 2 pekan karena pasar terguncang oleh laporan media yang mengisyaratkan kemungkinan penarikan program pembelian obligasi oleh Bank Sentral Eropa. Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia- Pasifik diluar Jepang merosot 0,4% sementara indeks Nikkei ditutup naik 0,5% didukung oleh mlemahnya yen. Adapun pasar Cina tutup sepekan ini.
Bloomberg baru-baru ini telah melaporkan bahwa ECB mungkin akan menarik 80 milyar euro (atau setara dengan $90 milyar) dari program pembelian obligasi bulanan secara bertahap sebelum mengakhiri program pelonggaran kuantitatif, menurut pejabat yang tidak ingin disebutkan namanya pada bank sentral negara-negara zona euro. Sementara itu, sejumlah pernyataan hawkish pejabat The Fed kian memperbesar peluang kenaikan suku bunga AS di bulan Desember, dengan pasar saat ini memberi peluang sebesar 63%.
Eropa: Laporan mengenai kemungkinan penarikan bertahapan program pembelian obligasi ECB juga turut menekan bursa Eropa di hari Rabu dengan saham utilitas dan properti mendapat pukulan terhebat. Indeks STOXX 600 ditutup melemah 0,6% dan catat penurunan sekitar 6%
sepanjang 2016. Bursa Inggris juga melemah pasca tembus rekor tertinggi di hari sebelumnya, dengan saham pertambangan Polymetal terkoreksi karena adanya kekhawatiran tentang pembayaran dividen dan United Utilities terpukul setelah RBC Capital Markets men-downgrade peringkatnya menjadi "underperform". Indeks FTSE ditutup melemah 0,6%.
AS & Global Markets: Indeks utama AS ditutup menguat pada hari Rabu, didukung oleh naiknya saham keuangan ditengah kondisi data ekonomi yang membaik dan juga saham energi setelah harga minyak naik ke level tertinggi Juni. Yield Treasury AS juga naik setelah data menunjukkan sektor jasa AS rebound ke level tertinggi 11 bulan di bulan September, sebuah indikasi membaiknya pertumbuhan ekonomi. Penurunan stok minyak AS selama 5 pekan berturut-turut dan harapan akan dicapainya kesepakatan diantara produsen minyak dunia untuk memangkas produksi minyaknya bulan depan telah mendorong kenaikan harga minyak ke level tertinggi sejak Juni.
Dolar bergerak tipis terhadap sejumlah rivalnya sementara sterling berhasil rebound 0,2% setelah terkoreksi di bawah $1.27 dan menembus level terendah 3 dekade terhadap dolar.
Weekahead: Fokus utama pasar pekan ini akan tertuju pada sejumlah data ekonomi AS yang akan mencapai puncaknya pada rilis data non-farm payrolls untuk melihat peluang kenaikan suku bunga AS pada sidang The Fed 13-14 Desember. Juga akan ada update untuk ekonomi AS oleh IMF, dimana estimasi PDB 2016 akan diturunkan lagi setelah memangkasnya menjadi 2,2% dari 2,4% di bulan Juli.
Dari Eropa, pasar akan mengikuti terus perkembangan langkah penyelesaian masalah yang menimpa Deutsche Bank.
ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016
HIGH / LOW .N225 .KS200 .HSI .DJI /.SPX /.SSEC
RECORD HIGH 38915.87 (29/Dec/89)
295.51 (03/May/11)
31958.41 (30/Oct/07)
18351.36 (19/May/2015)
2134.72 (20/May/2015)
6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 2015 HIGH 20952.71
(24/Jun/2015)
275.11 (24/Apr/2015)
28588.52 (27/Apr/2015)
18351.36 (19/May/2015)
2134.72 (20/May/2015)
5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 2016 HIGH 18951.12
(04/Jan/16)
262.10 (07/Sep/16)
24364.00 (09/Sep/16)
18668.44 (15/Aug/16)
2193.81 (15/Aug/16)
3538.68940 (04/Jan/16) 2016 LOW 14864.01
(24/Jun/16)
222.92 (20/Jan/16)
18278.80 (12/Feb/16)
15450.56 (20/Jan/16)
1810.10 (11/Feb/16)
2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2015 LOW 16592.57
(16/Jan/2015)
217.52 (24/Aug/2015)
20368.12 (29/Sep/2015)
15370.33 (24/Aug/2015)
1867.01 (24/Aug/2015)
2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) RECORD LOW 85.25 (06/Jul/50) 31.96
(16/Jun/98) 58.61 (31/Aug/67) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)
132.93 (23/Nov./82)
325.92200 (29/Jul/94)
Closing Prices – 05 Oktober 2016
CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE
.DJI 18281.03 112.58/ 0.62% .N225 16819.24 83.59/0.50%
/.SPX 2159.73 9.24 / 0.43% .KS200 258.99 0.19/0.07%
/.IXIC 5316.020 26.363 / 0.50% .HSI 23788.31 98.87/0.42%
JPY= 103.49 0.61/ 0.59% /.SSEC HOLIDAY 7.02570/0.23%
KRW= 1114.01 1.56 / 0.14% /CLc1 (Oil) 49.70 1.01/ 2.07%
Page 2 of 6
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST LAST REV
Mon/03-Oct 05:30 AU AIG Manufacturing Index Sep 49.8 N/A ind 46.9
06:50 JP Tankan Big Mf Index Q3 6 7 ind 6
06:50 JP Tankan Big Mf Outlook DI Q3 6 8 ind 6
06:50 JP Tankan Big Non-Mf Index Q3 18 18 ind 19
06:50 JP Tankan big non-mf outlook Q3 16 18 ind 17
06:50 JP Tankan All Big Capex Est Q3 6.3 6.8 % 6.2
06:50 JP Tankan Small Mf Index Q3 -3 -5 ind -5
06:50 JP Tankan Small Mf Outlook DI Q3 -5 -6 ind -7
06:50 JP Tankan Small Non-Mf Index Q3 1 -1 ind 0
06:50 JP Tankan Small non-mf outlook Q3 -2 -3 ind -4
06:50 JP Tankan All Small Capex Est Q3 -9.0 -8.4 % -14.9
07:30 JP Nikkei Mfg PMI Sep 50.4 50.3 ind 50.3
20:45 US Markit Mfg PMI Final Sep 51.5 51.4 ind 51.4
21:00 US Construction Spending MM Aug -0.7 -0.2 % 0.0 -0.3
21:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI Sep 51.5 50.3 ind 49.4
21:00 US ISM Mfg Prices Paid Sep 53.0 52.9 ind 53.0
21:00 US ISM Manufacturing Employment Idx Sep 49.7 49.0 ind 48.3
21:00 US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Idx Sep 55.1 N/A ind 49.1
All Day CN National Day/Bank Holiday
Tue/04-Oct 06:00 KR Current Account Balance Aug 5.79 N/A b 8.32 8.29
07:30 AU Building Approvals* Aug -1.8 -7.0 % 11.3 12.0
07:30 AU Private House Approvals Aug -1.3 N/A % -0.5 -0.1
07:30 AU ANZ Internet Job Ads Sep -0.3 N/A % 1.8
10:30 AU RBA Cash Rate* Oct 1.50 1.50 % 1.50
12:00 JP Consumer Confidence Index* Sep 43.0 41.8 ind 42.0
20.45 US ISM-New York Index Sep 719.7 N/A ind 719.9
20.45 US ISM-NY Biz Conditions Sep 49.6 N/A ind 47.5
All Day CN National Day/Bank Holiday
Wed/05-Oct 05:30 AU AIG Services Index Sep 48.9 N/A ind 45.0
06:00 KR CPI Growth* Sep 0.6 0.20 % -0.1
06:00 KR CPI Growth YY* Sep 1.2 0.80 % 0.4
07:30 AU Retail Sales MM* Aug 0.4 0.2 % 0.0
09.30 HK Nikkei PMI Sep 49.3 N/A ind 49.0
19:15 US ADP National Employment Sep 154.0 166 k 177 175.0
19:30 US International Trade MM $ Aug -40.73 -39.3 b -39.5 -39.55
20:45 US Markit Services PMI Final Sep 52.3 51.9 ind 51.9
20:45 US Markit Comp Final PMI Sep 52.3 N/A ind 52.0
21:00 US Durables Ex-Def, R MM Aug -0.8 N/A % -1.0
21:00 US Durable Goods, R MM Aug 0.1 N/A % 0.0
21:00 US Factory Orders MM Aug 0.2 -0.1 % 1.9 1.4
21:00 US Durables Ex-Transport R MM Aug -0.2 N/A % -0.4
21:00 US Non defense Cap Ex-Air R MM Aug 0.9 N/A % 0.6
21:00 US Factory Ex-Transport MM Aug 0.0 N/A % 0.2 -0.1
21:00 US ISM N-Mfg PMI Sep 57.1 53.0 ind 51.4
21:00 US ISM N-Mfg Bus Act Sep 60.3 52.2 ind 51.8
21:00 US ISM N-Mfg Employment Index Sep 57.2 N/A ind 50.7
21:00 US ISM N-Mfg New Orders Index Sep 60.0 N/A ind 51.4
21:00 US ISM N-Mfg Price Paid Index Sep 54.0 N/A ind 51.8
21:30 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e -2.976 2.560 m -1.882
21:30 US EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e -2.359 -0.700 m -1.915
21:30 US EIA Weekly Gasoline Stocks w/e 0.222 0.702 m 2.027
All Day CN National Day/Bank Holiday
06~07Oct : CN FX Reserves (Monthly)* Sep N/A t 3.19
Thu/06-Oct 04:00 KR FX Reserves* Sep 377.77 N/A b 375.46
07:30 AU Trade Balance G&S (A$)* Aug -2300 m -2410
07:30 AU Goods/Services Imports* Aug N/A % 0.0
07:30 AU Goods/Services Exports* Aug N/A % 3.0
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@ErwinRiset,@her1en)
18.30 US Challenger Layoffs Sep N/A k 32.188
19:30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 257 k 254
19.30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. w/e N/A k 256.00
19.30 US Continued Jobless Claims w/e 2.090 m 2.062
All Day CN National Day/Bank Holiday
Fri/07-Oct 05:30 AU AIG Construction Index Sep N/A ind 46.6
06:50 JP Foreign Reserves Sep N/A b 1256.1
07:00 JP Overtime Pay Aug N/A % -1.8
12:00 JP Coincident Indicator MM* Aug N/A ind 0.7
12:00 JP Leading Indicator* Aug N/A ind -0.7
15:30 HK FX Reserves Sep N/A b 362.70
19:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls Sep 175 k 151
19:30 US Private Payrolls Sep 170 k 126
19:30 US Manufacturing Payrolls Sep -5 k -14
19:30 US Government Payrolls Sep N/A k 25
19:30 US Unemployment Rate Sep 4.9 % 4.9
19:30 US Average Earnings MM Sep 0.2 % 0.1
19:30 US Average Workweek Hrs Sep 34.4 h 34.3
19:30 US Labor Force Participation Sep N/A % 62.8
19:30 US U6 Underemployment Sep N/A % 9.7
21:00 US Wholesale Inventory (y), R MM Aug -0.1 % -0.1
21:00 US Wholesale Sales MM Aug 0.2 % -0.4
All Day CN National Day/Bank Holiday
Sat/08-Oct 02:00 US Consumer Credit Aug 16.50 b 17.71
08:45 CN Caixin Services PMI Sep N/A ind 52.1
Page 4 of 6
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
SSIamZ6 (Nikkei Dec Futures) – Last Trading Date: 12 Dec. 2016
Reli berlanjut mendekati level psikologi 17000
Hourly trend bullish namun RSI sudah overbought
Short-term support di 16745 (Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME
05 Oct SSIpmZ6 16770 16945 16750 195 16930 --- 155 0.92 14629
05 Oct SSIamZ6 16755 16845 16710 135 16775 16775 60 0.36 43105
04 Oct SSIpmZ6 16745 16855 16705 150 16730 --- 15 0.09 21827
04 Oct SSIamZ6 16620 16735 16605 130 16715 16715 130 0.78 45634
03 Oct SSIpmZ6 16575 16615 16525 90 16580 --- 5 0.03 12246
03 Oct SSIamZ6 16615 16645 16545 100 16585 16585 215 1.31 36556
30 Sep SSIpmZ6 16365 16590 16315 275 16585 --- 215 1.31 23531
30 Sep SSIamZ6 16460 16490 16365 125 16370 16370 315 1.89 65194
29 Sep SSIpmZ6 16670 16700 16455 245 16465 --- 220 1.32 15355
29 Sep SSIamZ6 16585 16745 16580 165 16685 16685 240 1.46 52996
WEEKLY OCTOBER SEPTEMBER 2016
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
16945 16525 16945 16525 17165 16150 18945 14770
(05/Oct) (03/Oct) (05/Oct) (03/Oct) (02/Sep) (27/Sep) (04/Jan) (12/Feb)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE
17260 High 31/May/2016 (Peak)
17165 Peak level (1-H chart)
17100 Peak level (1-H chart)
17025 Peak level (1-H chart)
SUPPORT
16750 Reaction low (1-H chart)
16700 Reaction low (1-H chart)
16485 Pivot line (1-H chart)
16310 Pivot line (1-H chart)
RECOMMENDATION
BUY 16880
SELL ----
STOP LOSS 16730
TARGET 17000
17060
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
KSZ6 (Kospi Dec Futures) – Exp. Date: 08 Dec. 2016
Masih bergerak di kisaran 256.50 – 260.50
Rebound berpotensi uji trendline resistance di sekitar 261.50
Area support di 256.70 – 255.90
(Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %
CHANGE VOLUME
05 Oct 257.75 260.00 257.00 3.00 259.55 259.55 0.05 0.02 111862
04 Oct 259.45 260.40 259.00 1.40 259.50 259.50 1.30 0.50 75382
03 Oct H O L I D A Y
30 Sep 259.00 259.75 257.80 1.95 258.20 258.20 2.85 1.09 110896
29 Sep 260.15 261.65 260.05 1.60 261.05 261.05 2.15 0.83 100449
28 Sep 259.60 259.80 258.80 1.00 258.90 258.90 1.50 0.58 66373
WEEKLY OCTOBER SEPTEMBER 2016
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
260.40 257.00 260.40 257.00 262.50 251.00 262.50 223.10
(04/Oct) (05/Oct) (04/Oct) (05/Oct) (08/Sep) (19/Sep) (08/Sep) (20/Jan)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
RESISTANCE
264.15 High 27/May/2015
262.40 High 29/May/2015 (Reaction high)
262.10 High 07/Sep/2016 (Peak)
261.65 High 29/Sep/2016
SUPPORT
257.00 Low 05/Oct/2016
256.70 Pivot line
255.90 Low 27/Sep/2016
254.70 Low 21/Sep/2016
RECOMMENDATION
BUY 259.00
SELL ----
STOP LOSS 257.00
TARGET 260.80
261.70
Page 6 of 6
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
HSIV6 (Hang Seng Oct Futures) – Exp. Date: 28 October 2016
Area upperline dari pola symmetrical triangle pecah
Daily trend bullish
Reli berpotensi uji level psikologi di 24000
(Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %
CHANGE VOLUME
05 Oct 23552 23843 23508 335 23750 23750 68 0.29 101781
04 Oct 23577 23688 23501 187 23682 23682 98 0.42 80626
03 Oct 23596 23732 23495 237 23584 23584 271 1.16 93310
30 Sep (HSIV6) 23504 23511 23200 311 23313 23313 397 1.67 127493
29 Sep (HSIV6) 23780 23846 23600 246 23710 23710 74 0.31 107263
28 Sep (HSIV6) 23515 23653 23351 302 23636 23636 15 0.06 92779
28 Sep (HSIU6) 23518 23658 23364 294 23641 23641 19 0.08 138943
WEEKLY OCTOBER SEPTEMBER 2016
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
23843 23495 23843 23495 24374 22958 24374 18217
(05/Oct) (03/Oct) (05/Oct) (03/Oct) (09/Sep) (01/Sep) (09/Sep) (12/Feb)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
RESISTANCE
24374 High 09/Sep/2016
24102 High 12/Sep/2016
24084 Reaction high (1-H chart)
23986 Reaction high (1-H chart)
SUPPORT
23680 Reaction low (1-H chart)
23508 Reaction low (1-H chart)
23495 Reaction low (1-H chart)
23356 Pivot line (1-H chart)
RECOMMENDATION
BUY 23745
SELL ----
STOP LOSS 23650
TARGET 23950
24035
