ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

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DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose.

We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

 Asia: Saham Asia rebound dan USD menguat pada hari Senin setelah FBI mengatakan pihaknya berpijak pada rekomendasi sebelumnya bahwa tidak ada indikasi kriminal pada persoalan penggunaan server email pribadi Hillary Clinton untuk kerja pemerintah. Berita tersebut telah menghapus hambatan pada kampanye presiden Hillary dua hari sebelum pilpres, dan mendorong indeks berjangka S&P 500 naik 1,2%, sebuah kenaikan yang menghentikan koreksinya selama 9 hari berturutan – penurunan terlamanya selama lebih dari 35 tahun.

Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang bertambah 0,9%, kenaikan terbesar dalam 3 minggu. Saham Jepang naik 1,2%, kenaikan terbesarnya dalam 7 pekan. Pasar juga memprediksi suku bunga The Fed akan naik bulan depan setelah laporan pemerintah pada Jumat lalu yang menunjukkan naiknya jumlah lowongan kerja dan upah di bulan Oktober.

 Eropa: Saham Eropa menguat pada hari Senin, didukung oleh kenaikan tajam saham perbankan, menyusul berita bahwa Hillary Clinton tidak dikenai sanksi hukum atas penggunaan server email pribadinya untuk kerja pemerintah. Indeks STOXX 600 ditutup naik 1,5%. Pekan lalu indeks catat kerugian mingguan terbesarnya sejak Februari akibat ketidakpastian soal kemungkinan munculnya pemenang pilpres AS.

Clinton dipandang akan memberikan kepastian dan stabilitas bagi investor. Bursa Inggris juga ditutup naik, didukung oleh saham pertambangan dan juga saham keuangan. Indeks FTSE yang naik hampir 8% tahun ini, ditutup naik 1,7% kemarin pasca terkoreksi dalam 5 sesi bertutuan di hari Jumat ke level terendah 7 pekan.

 AS & Global Markets: Bursa global menguat pada hari Senin, demikian juga dengan USD, menempatkannya pada kenaikan terbesarnya dalam beberapa pekan setelah FBI menyatakan tidak ada indikasi kriminal pada Hillary Clinton terkait penggunaan server email pribadinya.

Hal ini memberi momentum baru dan menghilangkan awan hitam kampanye presiden hanya 2 hari jelang pemungutan suara pilpres AS, berhasil mengangkat indeks S&P 500 untuk naik lebih dari 2%.

Kondisi ini memicu tekanan jual pada emas dan Treasury AS. Sementara USD melonjak 0,73% terhadap sejumlah rivalnya setelah merosot 1,3% pekan lalu.

Pekan ini data stok minyak mingguan AS dan data perdagangan Cina perlu diperhatikan untuk melihat perkembangan kesehatan ekonomi global.

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

HIGH / LOW .N225 .KS200 .HSI .DJI /.SPX /.SSEC

RECORD HIGH 38915.87 (29/Dec/89)

295.51 (03/May/11)

31958.41 (30/Oct/07)

18351.36 (19/May/2015)

2134.72 (20/May/2015)

6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 2015 HIGH 20952.71

(24/Jun/2015)

275.11 (24/Apr/2015)

28588.52 (27/Apr/2015)

18351.36 (19/May/2015)

2134.72 (20/May/2015)

5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 2016 HIGH 18951.12

(04/Jan/16)

262.10 (07/Sep/16)

24364.00 (09/Sep/16)

18668.44 (15/Aug/16)

2193.81 (15/Aug/16)

3538.68940 (04/Jan/16) 2016 LOW 14864.01

(24/Jun/16)

222.92 (20/Jan/16)

18278.80 (12/Feb/16)

15450.56 (20/Jan/16)

1810.10 (11/Feb/16)

2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2015 LOW 16592.57

(16/Jan/2015)

217.52 (24/Aug/2015)

20368.12 (29/Sep/2015)

15370.33 (24/Aug/2015)

1867.01 (24/Aug/2015)

2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) RECORD LOW 85.25 (06/Jul/50) 31.96

(16/Jun/98) 58.61 (31/Aug/67) 388.20

(17/Jan/55)

132.93 (23/Nov./82)

325.92200 (29/Jul/94)

Closing Prices – 07 November 2016

CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE

.DJI 18259.60  371.32/ 2.08% .N225 17177.21  271.85/1.61%

/.SPX 2131.52  46.34 / 2.22% .KS200 254.60  2.03/0.80%

/.IXIC 5166.173  119.803/ 2.37% .HSI 22801.40  158.78/0.70%

JPY= 104.45  1.33/ 1.29% /.SSEC 3133.39760  8.08090/0.26%

KRW= 1140.67  0.22 / 0.02% /CLc1 (Oil) 44.95  0.88 / 2.00%

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RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf

WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS

(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@ErwinRiset,@her1en)

DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST LAST REV

06~07Nov N/A CN FX Reserves (Monthly) Oct 3.121 3.140 t 3.17

Mon/07-Nov 05:30 AU AIG Construction Index Oct 45.9 N/A ind 51.4

07:30 AU ANZ Newspaper Job Ads Oct N/A ind N/A

07:30 AU ANZ Internet Job Ads Oct 1.0 N/A ind -0.3

15:30 HK FX Reserves Oct 383.1 N/A b 362.50

22:00 US Employment Trends Oct 128.97 N/A ind 128.5 128.29

Tue/08-Nov 03:00 US Consumer Credit Sep 19.29 18.00 b 25.87 26.75

N/A CN Exports YY Oct -6.0 % -10

N/A CN Imports YY Oct -1.0 % -1.9

N/A CN Trade Balance USD Oct 51.70 b 41.99

06:50 JP Foreign Reserves Oct N/A b 1260.1

07:30 AU NAB Business Conditions Oct N/A ind 8

07:30 AU NAB Business Confidence Oct N/A ind 6

12:00 JP Coincident Indicator MM Sep N/A ind -0.1

12:00 JP Leading Indicator Sep N/A ind 1.2

18:00 US NFIB Business Optimism Index Oct 95 ind 94.1

19:45 US Fed's Evans Speaks on Econ & Policy Nov 23:20 US Fed's Evans Speaks on Econ & Policy Nov

Wed/09-Nov 06:00 KR Unemployment Rate Oct N/A % 4.0

09~10Nov 06:30 AU Consumer Sentiment Nov N/A % 1.1

06:50 JP Bank Lending YY Oct N/A % 2.2

06:50 JP Current Account NSA JPY Sep 1960.2 b 2000.8

08:30 CN PPI YY Oct 0.8 % 0.1

08:30 CN CPI MM Oct 2.1 % 0.7

08:30 CN CPI YY Oct 0.0 % 1.9

12:00 JP Economy Watchers Poll* Oct 44.4 ind 44.8

22:00 US Wholesale Inventory (y), R MM Sep 0.2 % 0.2

22:00 US Wholesale Sales MM Sep 0.5 % 0.7

22:30 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e N/A m 14.420

22:30 US EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e N/A m -1.828

22:30 US EIA Weekly Gasoline Stock w/e N/A m -2.207

10~20Nov N/A CN FDI (YTD) Oct N/A % 4.20

10~15Nov N/A CN M2 Money Supply YY Oct 11.4 % 11.5

10~15Nov N/A CN New Yuan Loans Oct 700.0 b 1220.0

10~15Nov N/A CN Outstanding Loan Growth Oct 13.0 % 13.0

Thu/10-Nov 00:30 US Fed's Kashkari Speaks in Wisconsin Nov 05:50 JP BOJ Summary Oct. 31-Nov.1 Meet Nov

06:00 AU Consumer Inflation Expectation Nov N/A % 3.7

06:50 JP Machinery Orders MM Sep -0.8 % -2.2

06:50 JP Machinery Orders YY Sep 3.5 % 11.6

07:30 AU Housing Finance* Sep -2.0 % -3.0

07:30 AU Invest Housing Finance* Sep N/A % 0.1

08:00 US Fed's Williams Speaks on Econ Outlook SF

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 260 k 265

20:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. w/e N/A k 257.75

20:30 US Continued Jobless Claims w/e 2.030 m 2.026

21.30 US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks

N/A KR Bank of Korea Base Rate Nov N/A % 1.25

Fri/11-Nov 02:00 US Federal Budget. $ Oct -80.00 b 33.0

06:00 JP Reuters Tankan DI Nov N/A ind 10

15:30 HK GDP QQ Q3 N/A % 1.6

15:30 HK GDP YY Q3 N/A % 1.7

21:00 US FOMC Member Fischer Speaks

22:00 US U Michigan Expectations Preliminary Nov 77.3 ind 76.8

22:00 US U Michigan Sentiment Preliminary Nov 87.5 ind 87.2

22:00 US U Michigan Conditions Preliminary Nov 103.4 ind 103.2

All Day US Veterans Day/Bank Holiday

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SSIamZ6 (Nikkei Dec Futures) – Last Trading Date: 12 Dec. 2016

 Rebound tajam dekati peak level di 17495 setelah area support di 16856 (23.6% Fibo.

Retracement of wave 14790 – 17495) masih efektif

 Sementara area trendline support di sekitar 16750 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME

07 Nov SSIpmZ6 17220 17270 17210 60 17245 ---  20 0.12 13124

07 Nov SSIamZ6 17195 17245 17060 185 17225 17225  335 1.98 57982

04 Nov SSIpmZ6 16925 16930 16815 115 16910 ---  20 0.12 19170

04 Nov SSIamZ6 17010 17010 16800 210 16890 16890  90 0.53 64649

03 Nov SSIpmZ6 16935 17090 16925 165 16975 ---  5 0.03 9262

03 Nov SSIamZ6 17100 17125 16905 220 16980 16980  100 0.59 10439

02 Nov SSIpmZ6 17120 17120 16970 150 17005 ---  75 0.44 24567

02 Nov SSIamZ6 17220 17285 17070 215 17080 17080  350 2.01 68866

01 Nov SSIpmZ6 17455 17470 17200 270 17210 ---  220 1.26 21537

01 Nov SSIamZ6 17390 17485 17340 145 17430 17430 UNCH UNCH 38662

WEEKLY NOVEMBER OCTOBER 2016

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

17270 17060 17485 16800 17495 16525 18945 14770

(07/Nov) (07/Nov) (01/Nov) (04/Nov) (27/Oct) (03/Oct) (04/Jan) (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

17740 High 25/Apr/2016 (Peak)

17580 High 28/Apr/2016 (Reaction high)

17495 High 28/Oct/2016 (Peak)

17285 Reaction high (1-H chart)

SUPPORT

17060 Reaction low (1-H chart)

16800 Low 04/Nov/2016 (Reaction low)

16645 Low 14/Oct/2016 (Bottom)

16525 Low 04/Oct/2016

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 17130

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 17030

TARGET 17300

17400

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KSZ6 (Kospi Dec Futures) – Exp. Date: 08 Dec. 2016

 Rebound hadapi trendline resistance di sekitar 257.50

 Strong resistance di sekitar 259.65

 Short-term support di sekitar 252 – 251

(Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %

CHANGE VOLUME

07 Nov 255.80 255.90 254.30 1.60 255.15 255.15  2.10 0.83 96396

04 Nov 253.05 253.60 252.25 1.35 253.05 253.05  0.65 0.26 92826

03 Nov 252.70 254.00 252.10 1.90 253.70 253.70  0.55 0.22 131257

02 Nov 254.50 254.95 252.80 2.15 253.15 253.15  3.35 1.31 124458

01 Nov 256.05 256.50 253.80 2.70 256.50 256.50 UNCH UNCH 135732

31 Oct 255.75 257.05 255.25 1.80 256.50 256.50  0.65 0.25 92652

255.90 254.30 256.50 252.10 261.80 253.95 262.50 223.10

(07/Nov) (07/Nov) (01/Nov) (03/Nov) (06/Oct) (17/Oct) (08/Sep) (20/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

261.15 High 10/Oct/2016

259.65 Horizontal resistance

257.75 High 26/Oct/2016

256.50 Reaction high (1-H chart)

SUPPORT

254.30 Low 04/Nov/2016

252.10 Low 03/Nov/2016

251.00 Low 19/Sep/2016 (Bottom)

249.90 Low 05/Aug/2016

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 254.80

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 254.00

TARGET 256.60

257.50

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HSIX6 (Hang Seng Nov Futures) – Exp. Date: 29 November 2016

 Area lowerline dari bearish trend channel masih cukup efektif

 Short-term support di sekitar 22700

 Waspadai indeks dibuka menguat di sekitar 22900 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %

CHANGE VOLUME

07 Nov 22644 22875 22623 252 22785 22786  173 0.77 99458

04 Nov 22600 22767 22580 187 22612 22612  109 0.48 83978

03 Nov 22739 22859 22653 206 22721 22721  67 0.29 111711

02 Nov 22890 22936 22765 171 22788 22788  437 1.88 99573

01 Nov 22920 23286 22908 378 23225 23225  320 1.40 116504

31 Oct (HSIX6) 22788 23054 22707 347 22905 22905  26 0.11 112221

28 Oct (HSIX6) 23090 23123 22813 310 22879 22879  245 1.06 110240

22875 22623 23286 22580 24077 22707 24374 18217

(07/Nov) (07/Nov) (01/Nov) (04/Nov) (11/Oct) (31/Oct) (09/Sep) (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

24077 High 11/Oct/2016 (Peak)

23653 High 25/Oct/2016 (Peak)

23389 High 27/Oct/2016

23286 Reaction high (1-H chart)

SUPPORT

22775 Pivot line (1-H chart)

22685 Pivot line

22454 Reaction low (1-H chart)

22322 Low 11/Aug/2016 (Reaction low)

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 22860

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 22750

TARGET 23020

23180