DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose.
We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.
MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK
Asia: Bursa saham Asia menguat pada hari Jumat, sementara dolar terangkat oleh spekulasi bahwa Federal Reserve AS bisa menaikkan suku bunga pada awal bulan depan. Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-pasifik diluar Jepang naik 0,7%, meskipun masih turun 0,2% dalam sepekan dan mencatat turun 4,2% tahun ini. Indeks Nikkei Jepang menghapus kerugian dan ditutup menguat 0,5%, memperpanjang kenaikan dalam sepekan menjadi 2% dipicu pelemahan yen atas dolar. Sementara indeks CSI 300 dan Komposit Shanghai Cina menyerahkan keuntungan sebelumnya seiring meredanya optimisme terhadap prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi negara tersebut.
Sedangkan saham Hang Seng bertambah 1,1%.
Eropa: Bursa Eropa menguat pada hari Jumat dipimpin saham sektor pertambangan dan keuangan, seiring naiknya harga logam. Indeks FTSEurofirst 300 naik 1,3% ke 1326,45 sementara indeks bule-chip kawasan yaitu indeks Euro STOXX 50 bertambah 1,5%. Bursa saham Inggris juga berhasil menguat tajam dipimpin reli pada saham Coca-Cola HBC berkat prospek sebuah margin recovery dan sebagian saham komoditas rebound pasca terjungkal dalam 2 sesi terakhir. Indeks FTSE 100 ditutup naik 1,7%, merupakan prosentase kenaikan terbesarnya sejak medio April. Namun indeks masih mencatat turun 1,4% sepanjang tahun ini.
AS & Global Markets: Bursa saham global menguat pada hari Jumat setelah investor melihat kemungkinan The Fed menaikkan suku bunga di bulan Juni (peluangnya sebesar 30%), sebuah pandangan yang telah mengangkat yield Treasury AS dan dolar ke penguatan 3 pekan berturut-turut. Data perumahan AS bulan April dirilis naik, indikasi bahwa pemulihan ekonomi AS berlanjut selama kuartal kedua. Data ini memperkuat ekspektasi kemungkinan terjadi kenaikan suku bunga di bulan Juni atau Juli. Wall Street menguat mengkuti bursa Eropa dengan indeks sektor keuangan S&P naik 0,61%. Menguatnya dolar telah menekan harga minyak dan juga emas. Emas melemah dalam 3 sesi berturut-turut dan mencatat penurunan mingguan terbesarnya dalam hampir 2 bulan, seiring ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga Fed.
Global Economy Weekahead: Investor akan mencermati sejumlah pernyataan petinggi Fed pekan ini untuk melihat seberapa cepat mereka akan menaikkan suku bunga, demikian juga dengan sidang para menteri keuangan Eurogroup pada hari Selasa mengenai kesepakatan pemberian bailout kepada Yunani. Fokus perhatian akan tertuju pada pernyataan Kepala Fed Janet Yellen di sebuah acara panel yang diselenggarakan oleh Harvard University pada hari Jumat. Dengan tidak adanya rilis data PDB-Q2 AS hingga akhir Juli nanti, maka pasar akan mencermati data revisi pertama PDB-Q1 pada hari Jumat. Sementara berkenaan dengan referendum Brexit dan dampaknya, maka data PDB-Q1 Inggris (Kamis) akan dicermati untuk melihat dampak yang terjadi pada investasi bisnis. Sidang bank sentral Kanada pada hari Rabu diprediksi unchanged meskipun terjadi kenaikan pada data inflasi tahunan di bulan April.
ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016
HIGH / LOW .N225 .KS200 .HSI .DJI /.SPX /.SSEC
RECORD HIGH 38915.87 (29/Dec/89)
295.51 (03/May/11)
31958.41 (30/Oct/07)
18351.36 (19/May/2015)
2134.72 (20/May/2015)
6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 2015 HIGH 20952.71
(24/Jun/2015)
275.11 (24/Apr/2015)
28588.52 (27/Apr/2015)
18351.36 (19/May/2015)
2134.72 (20/May/2015)
5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 2016 HIGH 18951.12
(04/Jan/16)
249.56 (20/Apr/16)
21794.84 (04/Jan/16)
18167.63 (20/Apr/16)
2111.05 (20/Apr/16)
3538.68940 (04/Jan/16) 2016 LOW 14865.77
(12/Feb/16)
222.92 (20/Jan/16)
18278.80 (12/Feb/16)
15450.56 (20/Jan/16)
1810.10 (11/Feb/16)
2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2015 LOW 16592.57
(16/Jan/2015)
217.52 (24/Aug/2015)
20368.12 (29/Sep/2015)
15370.33 (24/Aug/2015)
1867.01 (24/Aug/2015)
2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) RECORD LOW 85.25 (06/Jul/50) 31.96
(16/Jun/98) 58.61 (31/Aug/67) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)
132.93 (23/Nov./82)
325.92200 (29/Jul/94)
Closing Prices – 20 Mei 2016
CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE
.DJI 17500.94 65.54 / 0.38% .N225 16736.35 89.69/0.54%
/.SPX 2052.32 12.28 / 0.60% .KS200 238.74 0.30/0.13%
/.IXIC 4769.558 57.025 / 1.21% .HSI 19852.20 157.87/0.80%
JPY= 110.14 0.19 / 0.17% /.SSEC 2825.93910 19.03300/0.68%
KRW= 1185.20 1.28 / 0.11% /CLc1 (Oil) 47.75 0.41 / 0.85%
Page 2 of 6
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST LAST REV
MON/16-May N/A KR Export Growth Revised Apr -11.2 N/A % -11.2
N/A KR Import Growth Revised Apr -14.9 N/A % -14.9
N/A KR Trade Balance Revised Apr 8.8 N/A B 8.80
06.50 JP Corp Goods Price MM Apr -0.3 0.2 % -0.1
06.50 JP Corp Goods Price YY Apr -4.2 -3.7 % -3.8
19.30 US NY Fed Manufacturing May -9.02 6.50 IND 9.56
21.00 US NAHB Housing Market Idx May 58 59 IND 58
03.00 US Net L-T Flows Exswaps Mar 78.1 N/A B 72.0 72.6
03.00 US Foreign Buying T-Bonds Mar 23.6 N/A B 9.9
03.00 US Overall Net Capital Flow Mar -98.3 N/A B 33.5 31.7
03.00 US Net L-T Flows Incl. Swaps Mar 64.6 N/A B 60.9 61.5
TUE/17-May 08.30 AU New Motor Vehicle Sales Apr -2.5 N/A % 2.2
08.30 AU RBA Minutes
11.30 JP Industrial Output Rev Mar 3.8 3.6 % 3.6
11.30 JP Capacity Util. Idx Chg. MM Mar 3.2 N/A % -5.4
15.30 HK Unemployment Rate Apr 3.4 N/A % 3.4
19.30 US CPI MM SA Apr 0.4 0.3 % 0.1
19.30 US CPI YY NSA Apr 1.1 1.1 % 0.9
19.30 US Core CPI MM SA Apr 0.2 0.2 % 0.1
19.30 US Core CPI YY NSA Apr 2.1 2.1 % 2.2
19.30 US CPI Index NSA Apr 239.26 239.10 IND 238.13
19.30 US Core CPI Index SA Apr 246.57 N/A IND 246.10
19.30 US Real Weekly Earnings MM Apr 0.2 N/A % 0.2 0.1
19.30 US Building Permits: Number Apr 1.116 1.130 M 1.076 1.077
19.30 US Build Permits: Chg. MM Apr 3.6 4.3 % -8.6 -7.3
19.30 US Housing Starts Number MM Apr 1.172 1.127 M 1.089 1.099
19.30 US House Starts MM: Chg. Apr 6.6 2.9 % -8.8 -9.4
20.15 US Industrial Output MM Apr 0.7 0.3 % -0.6 -0.9
20.15 US Capacity Utilization MM Apr 75.4 75.0 % 74.8 74.9
20.15 US Manuf Output MM Apr 0.3 0.3 % -0.3
22.30 US Cleveland Fed CPI Apr 0.3 N/A % 0.2
WED/18-May 06.50 JP GDP QQ Q1 0.4 0.1 % -0.3 -0.4
06.50 JP GDP QQ Annualised Q1 1.7 0.2 % -1.1 -1.7
06.50 JP GDP QQ Pvt Consump Prelim Q1 0.5 0.2 % -0.9 -0.8
06.50 JP GDP QQ Capital Expend Q1 -1.4 -0.8 % 1.5 1.2
06.50 JP GDP QQ External Demand Q1 0.2 0.1 % 0.1
08.30 CN China House Prices YY Apr 6.2 N/A % 4.9
08.30 AU Wage Price Index QQ Q1 0.4 0.5 % 0.5
08.30 AU Wage Price Index YY Q1 2.1 2.2 % 2.2
21.30 US EIA Crude Inventories w/e 1.31 -2.833 M -3.410
01.00 US FOMC Minutes
THU/19-May 04.00 KR PPI Growth YY Apr -3.1 N/A % -3.3
04.00 KR PPI Growth Apr 0.2 N/A % -0.1
06.50 JP Machinery Orders MM Mar 5.5 0.5 % -9.2
06.50 JP Machinery Orders YY Mar 3.2 0.8 % -0.7
08.30 AU Employment Apr 10.8 12.5 K 26.1 25.7
08.30 AU Full Time Employment Apr -9.3 N/A K -8.8 -10.1
08.30 AU Participation Rate Apr 64.8 64.9 % 64.9
08.30 AU Unemployment Rate Apr 5.7 5.8 % 5.7
19.30 US Initial Jobless Claims W/E 278 275 K 294
19.30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. W/E 275.75 N/A K 268.25
19.30 US Continued Jobless Claims W/E 2.152 2.163 M 2.161 2.165
19.30 US National Activity Index Apr 0.10 N/A IND -0.44 -0.55
19.30 US Philly Fed Business Index May -1.8 3.5 IND -1.6
19.30 US Philly Fed Employment May -3.3 N/A IND -18.50
19.30 US Philly Fed Prices Paid May 15.7 N/A IND 13.20
21.00 US Leading Index Chg MM Apr 0.6 0.4 % 0.2 0.0
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Research @nikolasprasetia@her1en@ErwinRiset) 21.30 US FOMC Dudley Speaks
FRI/20-May 21.00 US Existing Home Sales Apr 5.45 5.40 M 5.33 5.36
21.00 US Exist. Home Sales % Chg. Apr 1.7 1.3 % 5.1 5.7
DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST LAST REV
MON/23-May 06.50 JP Exports YY Apr -10 % -6.8
06.50 JP Imports YY Apr -19 % -14.9
06.50 JP Trade Balance Total Yen Apr 492.8 B 755
09.00 JP Nikkei Mfg PMI Flash May 48.3 IND 48.2
15.15 US FOMC Bullard Speaks
15.30 HK Consumer Price Index Apr N/A % 3.0
20.45 US Markit Mfg PMI Flash May 51.0 IND 50.8
TUE/24-May 10.05 AU RBA Stevens Speaks
21.00 US New Home Sales-Units Apr 0.532 M 0.511
21.00 US New Home Sales Chg MM Apr 2.0 % -1.5
21.00 US Rich Fed Comp Indx May 9 IND 14
21.00 US Rich Fed Services Index May N/A IND 15
WED/25-May 08.30 AU Construction Work Done Q1 -1.5 % -3.6
18.30 US Build Permits R Numb. MM Apr N/A M 1.116
18.30 US Build Permits R Chg. MM Apr N/A % 3.6
19.30 US Adv Goods Trade Balance Apr -60.10 B -56.90
20.00 US Monthly Home Price MM Mar 0.4 % 0.4
20.00 US Monthly Home Price YY Mar N/A % 5.6
20.00 US Monthly Home Price Index Mar N/A IND 231.4
21.30 US EIA Crude Inventories w/e N/A M 1.31
THU/26-May 04.00 KR BoK Manufacturing BSI Jun N/A IND 69
04.00 KR Consumer Sentiment Ind May N/A IND 101
06.30 JP Reuters Tankan DI May N/A IND 10
08.30 AU Capital Expenditure Q1 -3.0 % 0.8
08.30 AU Building Capex Q1 -3.0 % 1.2
08.30 AU Plant/Machinery Capex Q1 -2.0 % 0.1
15.30 HK Imports Apr N/A % -5.8
15.30 HK Exports Apr N/A % -7.0
19.30 US Initial Jobless Claims W/E 275 K 278
19.30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. W/E N/A K 275.75
19.30 US Continued Jobless Claims W/E N/A M 2.152
19.30 US Durable Goods Apr 0.4 % 0.8
20.45 US Markit Comp Flash PMI May N/A IND 52.40
20.45 US Markit Svcs PMI Flash May N/A IND 52.8
21.00 US Pending Homes Index Apr N/A IND 110.5
21.00 US Pending Sales Chg. Apr 0.5 % 1.4
22.00 US KC Fed Manufacturing May N/A IND -8
22.00 US KC Fed Composite Index May -4 IND -4
FRI/27-May 06.30 JP CPI Core Nationwide YY Apr -0.4 % -0.3
06.30 JP CPI Overall Nationwide Apr N/A % -0.1
06.30 JP CPI Core Tokyo YY May -0.4 % -0.3
06.30 JP CPI Overall Tokyo May N/A % -0.4
19.30 US Corporate Profits Prelim Q1 N/A % -8.4
19.30 US GDP 2nd Estimate Q1 0.9 % 0.5
19.30 US GDP Sales Prelim Q1 N/A % 0.9
19.30 US GDP Cons Spending Prelim Q1 N/A % 1.9
19.30 US GDP Deflator Prelim Q1 0.7 % 0.7
19.30 US Core PCE Prices Prelim Q1 2.1 % 2.1
19.30 US PCE Prices Prelim Q1 N/A % 0.3
21.00 US UoM Sentiment Final May 95.5 IND 95.8
21.00 US UoM Conditions Final May N/A IND 108.6
21.00 US UoM Expectations Final May N/A IND 87.5
Page 4 of 6
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
SSIamM6 (Nikkei June Futures) – Last Trading Date: 13 Jun. 2016
Trendline resistance di sekitar 16800 sedang diuji
Target uptick di 16900
Support kunci di 16315
(Research – @ErwinRiset)DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME
20 May SSIpmM6 16710 16810 16695 115 16715 --- 20 0.12 11358
20 May SSIamM6 16605 16775 16545 230 16735 16735 105 0.63 43606
19 May SSIpmM6 16605 16620 16480 140 16530 --- 100 0.60 15828
19 May SSIamM6 16765 16840 16590 250 16630 16630 60 0.36 46124
18 May SSIpmM6 16630 16765 16590 175 16725 --- 155 0.94 12058
18 May SSIamM6 16590 16805 16495 310 16570 16570 145 0.87 69011
17 May SSIpmM6 16745 16785 16585 200 16585 --- 130 0.78 19460
17 May SSIamM6 16635 16720 16505 215 16715 16715 185 1.12 37340
16 May SSIpmM6 16475 16620 16455 165 16620 --- 90 0.54 8259
16 May SSIamM6 16395 16680 16375 305 16530 16530 180 1.10 52245
WEEKLY MAY APRIL 2016
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
16840 16375 16840 15820 17740 15320 18945 14770
(19/May) (16/May) (19/May) (03/May) (22/Apr) (07/Apr) (04/Jan) (12/Feb)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE
17580 High 28/Apr/2016 (Reaction high)
17165 Pivot line (1-D chart)
16900 Pivot line (1-D chart)
16840 High 19/May/2016
SUPPORT
16545 Reaction low on 1-H chart
16480 Reaction low on 1-H chart
16315 Low 13/May/2016
16220 Reaction low on 1-H chart
RECOMMENDATION
BUY 16690
SELL ----
STOP LOSS 16525
TARGET 16895
16955
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
KSM6 (Kospi June Futures) – Exp. Date: 09 Jun. 2016
Area trendline support di
sekitar 238.25 masih utuh
RSI sudah oversold (24)
Waspadai adanya pola Doji
star !
(Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %
CHANGE VOLUME
20 May 238.95 239.80 238.40 1.40 239.05 239.05 0.15 0.06 87896
19 May 239.00 239.65 238.65 1.00 238.90 238.90 0.40 0.17 78707
18 May 240.50 240.55 238.35 2.20 239.30 239.30 1.95 0.81 134793
17 May 241.20 241.60 240.30 1.30 241.25 241.25 0.05 0.02 81932
16 May 239.95 241.75 239.55 2.20 241.20 241.20 0.80 0.33 90046
WEEKLY MAY APRIL 2016
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
241.75 238.35 245.15 239.55 250.30 240.00 250.30 223.10
(16/May) (18/May) (02/May) (16/May) (20/Apr) (08/Apr) (20/Apr) (20/Jan)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
RESISTANCE
244.35 High 11/May/2016
242.80 High 13/May/2016
241.75 High 16/May/2016
240.55 High 18/May/2016
SUPPORT
237.50 Pivot line
234.90 Low 29/Feb/2016 (Reaction low)
234.05 Low 22/Feb/2016 (Bottom)
231.35 Low 17/Feb/2016
RECOMMENDATION
BUY 238.50
SELL ----
STOP LOSS 237.25
TARGET 240.15
241.85
Page 6 of 6
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf
HSIK6 (Hang Seng May Futures) – Exp. Date: 30 May 2016
Rebound uji lagi area 19800
Waspadai daily trend cenderung bearish
Target uptick di 20200
(Research – @ErwinRiset)DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %
CHANGE VOLUME
20 May 19602 19948 19579 369 19855 19855 249 1.27 130753
19 May 19680 19731 19562 169 19606 19606 80 0.41 108007
18 May 19768 19822 19639 183 19686 19686 260 1.30 115722
17 May 19852 20016 19721 295 19946 19946 130 0.66 122703
16 May 19522 19880 19516 364 19816 19816 212 1.08 132547
13 May 19700 19744 19448 296 19605 19604 199 1.01 132046
WEEKLY MAY APRIL 2016
HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
20016 19516 20987 19448 21664 19967 21857 18217
(17/May) (16/May) (03/May) (13/May) (21/Apr) (08/Apr) (04/Jan) (12/Feb)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
RESISTANCE
20538 High 04/May/2016
20391 High 05/May/2016
20253 High 11/May/2016 (Reaction high) 20016 High 17/May/2016 (Reaction high)
SUPPORT
19804 Reaction low on 1-H chart
16730 Pivot line (1-H chart)
19400 Pivot line (1-D chart)
19287 Low 02/Mar/2016
RECOMMENDATION
BUY 19840
SELL ----
STOP LOSS 19775
TARGET 19980
20120
