ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

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DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose.

We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

 Asia: Harga minyak dan saham energi terapresiasi pada hari Kamis setelah OPEC setuju untuk pengkas produksi minyaknya, sementara USD dan yield obligasi naik tajam oleh ekspektasi naiknya suku bunga seiring meningkatnya tekanan inflasi. Di pasar ekuitas Asia, saham Australia naik 0,9%

dan Nikkei Jepang naik 1,1% setelah yen jatuh ke level terendah sejak Februari mendekati area 115 per dolar. Sub-sektor pertambangan Tokyo melonjak lebih dari 10% dan menjadi pendorong terbesar kenaikan indeks. Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia-Pasifik diluar Jepang naik 0,5%, terangkat oleh data manufaktur Cina yang dirilis lebih baik dari ekspektasi. Bursa Shanghai catat kenaikan 0,7%.

 Eropa: Saham Italia naik ke level tertinggi 3 pekan pada hari Kamis, bersinar ditengah melemahnya pasar Eropa, dengan saham perbankan dalam permintaan karena kekhawatiran mereda atas referendum hari Minggu pada reformasi konstitusi Perdana Menteri Matteo Renzi. Indeks STOXX 600 merosot 0,3%, sementara indeks bleu chip Milan naik 1% ke level intraday tertinggi sejak 10 November. Pasar saham Italia masih berkinerja terburuk di Eropa tahun ini dengan penurunan lebih dari 20% akibat permasalahan perbankan dan kekhawatiran pada ketidakstabilan politik. Indeks saham Inggris juga terkoreksi oleh terpukulnya saham consumer goods akibat melemahnya sterling. Indeks FTSE 100 turun 0,5%, level penutupan terendahnya sejak 17 November. Indeks masih tercatat naik 8% sepanjang tahun 2016 ini.

 AS & Global Markets: Minyak Brent berjangka naik ke level tertinggi 16 bulan pada hari Kamis masih terinspirasi oleh keputusan OPEC pangkas produksi minyak sehari sebelumnya, sementara yield Treasury terus menguat menyusul kinerja bulanan terburuk untuk obligasi global dalam 13 tahun. Yield Treasury AS tenor 10 tahun melonjak ke level tertinggi sejak Juli 2015, setelah Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Global Broad Market Index terkoreksi 1,76% di bulan November, prosentase penurunan bulanan tertajamnya sejak catat penurunan 2,06% di bulan Juli 2003. Indeks dolar, yang menutup kenaikan 2 bulan berturut-turut di atas 3%, terkoreksi 0,54%. Sterling menguat terhadap USD untuk ke tujuh kalinya dalam 9 sesi terakhir. Euro juga menguat terhadap USD. Di Wall Street, turunnya saham teknologi telah menekan Nasdaq Composite dan S&P 500. Emas jatuh ke level terendah dalam hampir 10 bulan namun kemudian pangkas kerugian dan terakhir ditutup naik 0,01% di $1171.01 per ounce.

 Weekahead: Pandangan pasar akan tertuju pada referendum konstitusi yang akan diselenggarakan di Italia pada hari Minggu 4 Desember 2016.

Investor takut Italia bisa terjun ke ketidakpastian politik jika Perdana Menteri pro-euro Matteo Renzi gagal untuk melewati referendum konstitusi, yang bisa mendorong pengunduran diri Renzi. Sedangkan di tahun 2017 sejumlah negara Eropa juga akan mengadakan pemilu seperti Belanda, Perancis dan Jerman. Perhatian pasar kemudian akan berakhir pada rilis data pekerjaan AS (non-farm payrolls) pada hari Jumat yang diharapkan akan memperkuat ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga AS di bulan Desember.

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016

HIGH / LOW .N225 .KS200 .HSI .DJI /.SPX /.SSEC

RECORD HIGH 38915.87 (29/Dec/89)

295.51 (03/May/11)

31958.41 (30/Oct/07)

18351.36 (19/May/2015)

2134.72 (20/May/2015)

6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 2015 HIGH 20952.71

(24/Jun/2015)

275.11 (24/Apr/2015)

28588.52 (27/Apr/2015)

18351.36 (19/May/2015)

2134.72 (20/May/2015)

5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 2016 HIGH 18951.12

(04/Jan/16)

262.10 (07/Sep/16)

24364.00 (09/Sep/16)

19225.29 (30/Nov/16)

2214.10 (30/Nov/16)

3538.68940 (04/Jan/16) 2016 LOW 14864.01

(24/Jun/16)

222.92 (20/Jan/16)

18278.80 (12/Feb/16)

15450.56 (20/Jan/16)

1810.10 (11/Feb/16)

2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2015 LOW 16592.57

(16/Jan/2015)

217.52 (24/Aug/2015)

20368.12 (29/Sep/2015)

15370.33 (24/Aug/2015)

1867.01 (24/Aug/2015)

2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) RECORD LOW 85.25 (06/Jul/50) 31.96

(16/Jun/98) 58.61 (31/Aug/67) 388.20 (17/Jan/55)

132.93 (23/Nov./82)

325.92200 (29/Jul/94)

Closing Prices – 01 December 2016

CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE

.DJI 19191.93  68.35/ 0.36% .N225 18513.12  204.64/1.12%

/.SPX 2191.08  7.73 / 0.35% .KS200 254.48  0.22/0.09%

/.IXIC 5251.107  72.574/ 1.36% .HSI 22878.23  88.46/0.39%

JPY= 114.08  0.36/ 0.31% /.SSEC 3274.07160  24.03720/0.74%

KRW= 1166.73  9.66 / 0.82% /CLc1 (Oil) 50.91  1.47 / 2.97%

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RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777 Twitter: @researchvaf

WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS

DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV.

Mon/28-Nov-16 22:30 US Dallas Fed Mfg Bus idx* Nov 10.2 N/A -1.50

Tue/29-Nov-16 04:00 KR BOK Manufacturing BSI* Dec 74 N/A 74

06:30 JP Unemployment Rate Oct 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

06:30 JP Jobs/Applicants Ratio Oct 1.40 1.39 1.38

06:30 JP All Household Spending YY* Oct -0.4% -0.6% -2.1%

06:30 JP All Household Spending MM Oct -1.0% 0.1% 2.8%

06:50 JP Retail Sales YY Oct -0.1% -1.2% -1.9%

14:00 KR Bank of Korea Policy Meeting Minutes

20:30 US GDP 2^nd Estimate Q3 3.2% 3.0% 2.9 %

20:30 US GDP Sales Prelim Q3 2.7% 2.5% 2.3%

20:30 US GDP Cons Spending Prelim Q3 2.8% N/A 2.1%

20:30 US GDP Deflator Prelim Q3 1.4% 1.5% 1.5%

20:30 US Core PCE Price Prelim Q3 1.7% 1.8% 1.7%

20:30 US PCE Prices Prelim Q3 1.4% 2.0% 1.4%

21:00 US CaseShiller 20 MM SA Sep 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3%

21:00 US CaseShiller 20 MM NSA Sep 0.1% 0.4% 0.4%

21:00 US CaseShiller 20 YY Sep 5.1% 5.2% 5.1%

21:15 US Fed's Dudley Speaks

22:00 US Consumer Confidence Nov 107.1 101.2 98.6 100.8

22:30 US Texas Serv Sect Outlook Nov 12.6 N/A 3.0

22:30 US Dallas Fed Services Reve Nov 13.7 N/A 9.9

Wed/30-Nov-16 06:00 KR Industrial Production YY* Oct -1.6% -2.0% -2.0% -1.7%

06:00 KR Service Sector Output Gr Oct -0.2% N/A 0.6% -0.7%

06:00 KR Industrial Output Growth Oct -1.7% -0.1% 0.3% 0.6%

06:50 JP Industrial Production Prelim Oct 0.1% -0.1% 0.6%

07:00 AU HIA New Home Sales MM Nov -8.5% N/A 3.8%

07:30 AU Building Approvals* Oct -12.6% 1.5% -8.7% -9.3%

07:30 AU Private House Approvals* Oct -3.4% N/A 2.3% 1.5%

07:30 AU Private Sector Credit* Oct 0.5% 0.4% 0.4%

07:30 AU Housing Credit* Oct 0.6% N/A 0.5%

12:00 JP Housing Starts YY* Oct 13.7% 11.2% 10.0%

12:00 JP Construction Orders YY* Oct 15.2% N/A 16.3%

15:30 HK Money Supply M3* Oct 8.1% N/A 7.80%

20:00 US Fed's Kaplan Speaks in New York

20:15 US ADP National Employment Nov 216.0k 165k 147k 119.0k

20:30 US Personal Income MM Oct 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4%

20:30 US Personal Consump Real MM Oct 0.1% N/A 0.3% 0.5%

20:30 US Consumption. Adjusted MM Oct 0.3% 0.5% 0.5%

20:30 US Core PCE Price Index MM Oct 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

20:30 US Core PCE Price Index YY Oct 1.4% N/A 1.7%

20:30 US PCE Price Index MM Oct 0.2% N/A 0.2%

20:30 US PCE Price Index YY Oct 1.4% N/A 1.2%

21:45 US Chicago PMI Nov 57.6 52.0 50.6

22:00 US Pending Home Sales Change MM Oct 0.1% 0.4% 1.5% 1.4%

22:00 US Pending Home Index Oct 110.0 N/A 110.0 109.9

22:30 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e -0.884m 0.636m -1.255m

22:30 US EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e 4.957m 1.336m 0.327m

22:30 US EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk w/e 2.097m 1.156m 2.317m

30 Nov ~ 01 Dec US OPEC Meeting: 171st Meeting in Vienna Thu/01-DEC-16 02:00 US U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

05:30 AU AIG Mfg Index Nov 54.2 N/A 50.9

06:00 KR CPI Growth* Nov -0.1% 0.10% 0.1%

06:00 KR CPI Growth YY* Nov 1.3% 1.50% 1.3%

06:00 KR Current Account Balance* Oct 6.01b N/A 7.06b 6.86b

06:50 JP Business Capex (MOF) YY* Q3 -1.3% N/A 3.1%

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(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Tradingeconomics-forexfactory, Research: @LukmanLoeng,@ErwinRiset)

07:00 KR Exports Growth Prelim* Nov 2.7% 1.2% -3.2%

07:00 KR Imports Growth Prelim* Nov 10.1% 2.9% -4.8%

07:00 KR Trade Balance Prelim* Nov 8.0b N/A 6.97b

07:30 AU Capital Expenditure* Q3 -4.0% -2.5% -5.4% -5.2%

07:30 AU Plant/Machinery Capex* Q3 -1.9% N/A 2.8%

07:30 JP Nikkei Mfg PMI Nov 51.3 N/A 51.1

07:30 KR Nikkei Markit Mfg PMI Nov 48.0 N/A 48.0

08:00 CN NBS Manufacturing PMI* Nov 51.7 51 51.2

08:00 CN NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI Nov 54.7 N/A 54.00

08:45 CN Caixin Mfg PMI Final Nov 50.9 50.8 51.2

15:30 HK Retail Sales YY* Oct -2.9% N/A -4.1%

19:30 US Challenger Layoffs Nov 26.936k N/A 30.740k

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 268 253k 251k

20:30 US Jobless Claims 4-wk Avg w/e 251.5 N/A 251.00k

20:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims w/e 2.081m 2.040m 2.043m

20:30 US Fed's Mester Gives Opening Remarks at Financial Stability Conf 21:00 US Fed's Kaplan Speaks in San Antonio

21:45 US Markit Manufacturing PMI Final Nov 54.1 N/A 53.9

22:00 US Construction Spending MM Oct 0.5% 0.5% -0.4% 0.0%

22:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI Nov 53.2 52.2 51.9

22:00 US ISM Mfg Prices Paid Nov 54.5 54.0 54.5

22:00 US ISM Manuf New Orders Idx Nov 52.3 N/A 52.1

Fri/02-DEC-16 06:00 KR GDP Growth YY Q3 N/A 2.7%

06:00 KR GDP Growth QQ Q3 N/A 0.7%

07:30 AU Retail Sales MoM Oct 0.3% 0.6%

20:30 US Non-farm Payrolls Nov 175k 161k

20:30 US Private Payrolls Nov 165k 142k

20:30 US Manufacturing Payrolls Nov -3k -9k

20:30 US Government Payrolls Nov N/A 19k

20:30 US Unemployment Rate Nov 4.9% 4.9%

20:30 US Average Earnings MM Nov 0.2% 0.4%

20:30 US Average Workweek Hrs Nov 34.4h 34.4h

20:30 US Labor Force Participation Rate Nov N/A 62.8%

20:30 US U6 Underemployment Rate Nov N/A 9.5%

21:45 US ISM-New York Index Nov N/A 719.3

21:45 US ISM-NY Biz Conditions Nov N/A 49.2

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SSIamZ6 (Nikkei Dec Futures) – Last Trading Date: 12 Dec. 2016

 Retracement terjadi setelah gagal bertahan di atas area 18500

 Koreksi hadapi support jangka pendek di 18350 – 18200 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME

01 Dec SSIpmZ6 18430 18580 18395 185 18425 ---  5 0.03 27095

01 Dec SSIamZ6 18585 18750 18415 335 18420 18420  45 0.24 87724

30 Nov SSIpmZ6 18375 18660 18355 305 18600 ---  225 1.22 32728

30 Nov SSIamZ6 18370 18390 18285 105 18375 18375  95 0.52 39794

29 Nov SSIpmZ6 18285 18450 18285 165 18355 ---  75 0.41 20381

29 Nov SSIamZ6 18250 18335 18230 105 18280 18280  30 0.16 34790

28 Nov SSIpmZ6 18315 18360 18215 145 18280 ---  30 0.16 19007

28 Nov SSIamZ6 18355 18375 18210 165 18310 18310  65 0.35 51686

25 Nov SSIpmZ6 18360 18385 18265 120 18380 ---  5 0.03 14000

25 Nov SSIamZ6 18405 18485 18290 195 18375 18375  10 0.05 45627

WEEKLY DECEMBER NOVEMBER 2016

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

18750 18210 18750 18415 18660 16095 18945 14770

(01/Dec) (28/Nov) (01/Dec) (01/Dec) (30/Nov) (09/Nov) (04/Jan) (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE

19115 High 30/Dec/2015 (Reaction high)

18945 High 04/Jan/2016

18750 Peak level (1-H chart)

18580 Reaction high (1-H chart)

SUPPORT

18350 Pivot line (1-H chart)

18280 Reaction low (1-H chart)

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 18500

STOP LOSS 18600

TARGET 18370

18275

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KSZ6 (Kospi Dec Futures) – Exp. Date: 08 Dec. 2016

 Retracement berkembang setelah gagal bertahan di atas area 255

 Koreksi hadapi short-term support di 253.50 – 252.25 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %

CHANGE VOLUME

01 Dec 254.55 255.05 253.85 1.20 254.20 254.20  0.05 0.02 88278

30 Nov 253.05 254.95 253.00 1.95 254.15 254.15  1.35 0.53 132948

29 Nov 253.15 253.65 252.55 1.10 252.80 252.80  0.35 0.14 100954

28 Nov 252.30 253.50 250.80 2.70 253.15 253.15  0.95 0.38 103150

25 Nov 252.80 253.00 251.90 1.10 252.20 252.20  0.25 0.10 84697

24 Nov 253.65 253.90 251.65 2.25 252.45 252.45  1.10 0.43 109595

WEEKLY DECEMBER NOVEMBER 2016

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

255.05 250.80 255.05 253.85 257.45 246.80 262.50 223.10

(01/Dec) (28/Nov) (01/Dec) (01/Dec) (09/Nov) (09/Nov) (08/Sep) (20/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

259.65 Horizontal resistance

257.45 High 09/Nov/2016 (Peak)

255.65 High 10/Nov/2016

255.05 High 01/Dec/2016

SUPPORT

253.00 Low 30/Nov/2016

252.55 Low 29/Nov/2016

251.70 Pivot line (1-H chart)

250.80 Reaction low (1-H chart)

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 254.55

STOP LOSS 255.25

TARGET 252.75

251.90

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HSIZ6 (Hang Seng Dec Futures) – Exp. Date: 29 December 2016



Reli breakout resistance krusial di 23000, hit day high di 23018 dengan short-term support di sekitar 22700



Crucial support di sekitar 22500



Target uptick di 23250

(Research – @ErwinRiset)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE %

CHANGE VOLUME

01 Dec 22898 23018 22852 166 22894 22893  72 0.32 92553

30 Nov (HSIZ6) 22813 22929 22776 153 22822 22822  18 0.08 90672

29 Nov (HSIZ6) 22751 22871 22700 171 22804 22804  4 0.02 93968

29 Nov (HSIX6) 22737 22830 22690 140 22795 22790  11 0.05 16582

28 Nov 22700 22978 22691 287 22784 22784  54 0.24 125030

25 Nov 22629 22788 22560 228 22730 22730  125 0.55 143118

24 Nov 22606 22652 22467 185 22605 22605  111 0.49 138037

WEEKLY DECEMBER NOVEMBER 2016

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

23018 22690 23018 22852 23286 21904 24374 18217

(01/Dec) (29/Nov) (01/Dec) (01/Dec) (01/Nov) (09/Nov) (09/Sep) (12/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

23286 High 02/Nov/2016 (Reaction high)

23211 High 02/Nov/2016

23152 High 09/Nov/2016 (Peak)

23018 High 01/Dec/2016

SUPPORT

22691 Low 28/Nov/2016

22560 Low 25/Nov/2016

22467 Reaction low (1-D chart)

22300 Pivot line (1-D chart)

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 22775

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 22680

TARGET 23025

23105