DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose.
MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK
•
Asia: Bursa saham Asia sebagian besar melemah pada hari Senin pasca rilis mengecewakan data pekerjaan AS di akhir pekan
lalu dan juga data perdagangan Cina yang lebih buruk dari perkiraan, menambah kegalauan investor perihal kesehatan
ekonomi global. Indeks Kospi turun 0,5% dan Shanghai merosot hampir 3% setelah data ekspor dan impor turun lebih
rendah dari perkiraan di bulan April. Bursa di Malaysia, Indonesia dan Thailand juga melemah. Namun indeks Nikkei berhasil
melawan trend setelah ditutup menguat 0,7% menyusul reli yen telihat terhambat saat ini.
•
Eropa: Bursa Eropa rebound pada hari Senin setelah terkoreksi selama 2 pekan, didukung oleh naiknya saham di Jerman dan
Yunani, dengan bursa Athena naik oleh ekspektasi kemajuan dalam menanggulangi beban utang Yunani. Indeks FTSEurofirst
300 naik 0,5% ke 1309,10 meskipun masih mencatat turun 9% sepanjang tahun 2016. Sedangkan bursa saham Inggris masih
melanjutkan deprsiasinya, memperluas penurunan mingguan terbesarnya sejak Februari, setelah reli pada saham pariwisata
gagal mengimbangi tekanan pada saham pertambangan. Indeks FTSE 100 ditutup turun 0,2% setelah merosot 1,9% pekan
lalu, dengan penurunan ini sekaligus catat koreksi 3 pekan berturut-turut. Indeks pertambangan Inggris anjlok 7,9% setelah
rilis buruk data perdagangan Cina dan menguatnya dolar.
•
AS & Global Markets: Yen jatuh terhadap USD pada hari Senin setelah Jepang memberikan sinyal siap untuk melakukan
intervensi di pasar valas, sementara koreksi tajam harga minyak telah menekan ekuitas, menyusul ekspektasi bahwa stok
minyak AS akan kembali cetak rekor tertinggi. Indeks saham AS ditutup beragam menyusul saham kesehatan mampu
meng-counter
penurunan 1,2% pada sektor energi S&P. Yield Treasury AS juga merosot setelah investor menurunkan estimasi
bahwa The Fed akan menaikkan suku bunga di bulan Juni, usai rilis buruk data pekerjaan AS periode April pada Jumat lalu.
•
Global Economy Weekahead – Rilis buruk data perdagangan Cina kian menambah suram prospek kenaikan suku bunga AS.
Untuk itu data retail sales dan survey sentimen konsumen dari University of Michigan AS akan dicermati. Perhatikan juga
komentar dari sejumlah petinggi Fed pekan ini, termasuk dari Boston, Cleveland and Kansas City. Sementara sidang BoE
(Kamis) diprediksi tidak akan menghasilkan perubahan kebijakan. Pembuat kebijakan BoE kemungkinan akan disibukkan oleh
pelaksanaan referendum pada 23 Juni mengenai apakah Inggris harus tetap menjadi anggota Uni Eropa. BoE kemungkinan
akan menurunkan proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi namun menahan proyeksi inflasinya dalam laporan kuartalan. Bank
sentral Korea, Thailand dan Filipina juga akan bersidang pekan ini, dan diprediksi tidak ada perubahan kebijakan.
ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016
HIGH / LOW .N225 .KS200 .HSI .DJI /.SPX /.SSEC
RECORD HIGH 38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 295.51 (03/May/11) 31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 18351.36 (19/May/2015) 2134.72 (20/May/2015) 6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 2015 HIGH 20952.71 (24/Jun/2015) 275.11 (24/Apr/2015) 28588.52 (27/Apr/2015) 18351.36 (19/May/2015) 2134.72 (20/May/2015) 5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 2016 HIGH 18951.12 (04/Jan/16) 249.56 (20/Apr/16) 21794.84 (04/Jan/16) 18167.63 (20/Apr/16) 2111.05 (20/Apr/16) 3538.68940 (04/Jan/16) 2016 LOW 14865.77 (12/Feb/16) 222.92 (20/Jan/16) 18278.80 (12/Feb/16) 15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2015 LOW 16592.57 (16/Jan/2015) 217.52 (24/Aug/2015) 20368.12 (29/Sep/2015) 15370.33 (24/Aug/2015) 1867.01 (24/Aug/2015) 2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015)
RECORD LOW 85.25 (06/Jul/50) 31.96
(16/Jun/98) 58.61 (31/Aug/67) 388.20 (17/Jan/55) 132.93 (23/Nov./82) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94)
Closing Prices – 09 Mei 2016
CLOSE
CHANGE
CLOSE
CHANGE
.DJI 17705.91 34.72 / 0.20% .N225 16216.03 109.31/0.68%
/.SPX 2058.69 1.55 / 0.08% .KS200 242.23 1.08/0.44%
/.IXIC 4750.209 14.054 / 0.30% .HSI 20156.81 46.94/0.23%
JPY= 108.31 1.21 / 1.13% /.SSEC 2832.90860 80.33900/2.76%
Fundamental & Technical Outlook
Rabu 04 Mei 2016ASIA STOCK INDEX
Page 2 of 5
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – P.T. Platon Niaga Berjangka Menara Karya 20th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2
Jakarta 12950 Indonesia – (021) – 25533773 Fax (021) - 25533776
WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Research @nikolasprasetia@her1en@ErwinRiset)
DATE
WIB
CTY
INDICATORS
PER
ACTUAL
FORECAST
LAST
REV
SUN/08-May N/A CN Exports YY Apr -1.8 -0.1 % 11.5
N/A CN Imports YY Apr -10.9 -5.0 % -7.6
N/A CN Trade Balance USD Apr 45.562 40.00 B 29.86
MON/09-May 06.50 JP BoJ Minutes
07.00 JP Overtime Pay Mar -0.2 N/A % 0.4
08.30 AU ANZ Newspaper Job Ads Apr -6.2 N/A % -11.4
08.30 AU ANZ Internet Job Ads Apr -0.7 N/A % 0.4
12.00 JP Consumer Confid Index Apr 40.8 40.8 IND 41.7
21.00 US Employment Trends Apr 128.28 N/A IND 127.5 126.42
TUE/10-May N/A CN FDI (YTD) Apr N/A % 4.50
10~15 May N/A CN M2 Money Supply YY Apr 13.5 % 13.4
10~15 May N/A CN New Yuan Loans Apr 900.0 B 1370.0
10~15 May N/A CN Outstanding Loan Growth Apr 14.8 % 14.7
08.30 CN PPI YY Apr -3.8 % -4.3
08.30 CN CPI YY Apr 2.4 % 2.3
08.30 CN CPI MM Apr -0.2 % -0.4
17.00 US NFIB Business Optimism Idx Apr 93.2 IND 92.60
21.00 US JOLTS Job Openings Mar 5.412 M 5.445
21.00 US Wholesale Inventories MM Mar 0.1 % -0.5
21.00 US Wholesale Sales MM Mar 0.3 % -0.2
22.00 JP Foreign Reserves Apr N/A B 1262.1
WED/11-May 06.00 KR Unemployment Rate Apr N/A % 3.8
08.30 AU Housing Finance Mar -1.5 % 1.5
08.30 AU Invest Housing Finance Mar N/A % 4.1
12.00 JP Coincident Indicator MM Mar N/A IND -3.2
12.00 JP Leading Indicator Mar N/A IND -2.0
21.30 US EIA Crude Inventories w/e N/A M 2.784
01.00 US Federal Budget $ Apr 100.0 B -108.0
THU/12-May 04.00 KR Export Price Growth YY Apr N/A % -4.5
04.00 KR Import Price Growth YY Apr N/A % -7.7
06.50 JP Bank Lending YY Apr N/A % 2.0
06.50 JP Current Account NSA JPY Mar N/A B 2434.9
N/A JP Economy Watchers Poll Apr 44.9 IND 45.4
10.00 KR L-Money Supply Growth Mar N/A % 8.3
19.30 US Initial Jobless Claims W/E 270 K 274
19.30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. W/E N/A K 258.00
19.30 US Continued Jobless Claims W/E 2.120 M 2.121
19.30 US Import Prices MM Apr 0.5 % 0.2
19.30 US Export Prices MM Apr 0.1 % 0.0
22.45 US FOMC Rosengren Speaks
00.30 US FOMC George Speaks
FRI/13-May N/A KR BoK Base Rate May N/A % 1.50
15.30 HK GDP QQ Q1 N/A % 0.20
15.30 HK GDP YY Q1 N/A % 1.90
19.30 US PPI Final Demand YY Apr 0.3 % -0.1
19.30 US PPI Final Demand MM Apr 0.3 % -0.1
19.30 US PPI Core YY Apr 0.9 % 1.0
19.30 US PPI Core MM Apr 0.1 % -0.1
19.30 US Retail Sales MM Apr 0.8 % -0.4
19.30 US Retail Control Apr 0.3 % 0.1
21.00 US Business Inventories MM Mar 0.2 % -0.1
21.00 US UoM Sentiment Prelim May 90.0 IND N/A
21.00 US UoM Conditions Prelim May 106.5 IND N/A
21.00 US UoM Expectations Prelim May 78.1 IND N/A
SAT/14-May 12.30 CN Urban Investment (ytd) YY Apr 10.9 % 10.7
12.30 CN Industrial Output YY Apr 6.5 % 6.8
DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose.
SSIamM6 (Nikkei June Futures) – Last Trading Date: 13 Jun. 2016
•
Masih bergerak dalam area
symmetrical triangle
•
Rebound
berkembang
setelah membentuk double
bottom di 15820
•
Target uptick di 16900
(Research – @ErwinRiset)DATE
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
RANGE
CLOSE
SETTLE
CHANGE
% CHANGE
VOLUME
09 May SSIpmM6 16170 16425 16130 295 16280 --- 65 0.40 24345 09 May SSIamM6 16185 16290 16140 150 16215 16215 190 1.19 47044 06 May SSIpmM6 16005 16040 15840 200 16015 --- 10 0.06 23028 06 May SSIamM6 16085 16270 15980 290 16025 16025 35 0.22 56265 05 May SSIpmM6 16025 16130 15960 170 16015 --- 25 0.16 6664 05 May SSIamM6 15930 16065 15910 155 15990 15990 15 0.09 5778 04 May SSIpmM6 15975 16005 15820 185 15900 --- 75 0.47 7836 04 May SSIamM6 15950 16090 15945 145 15975 15975 30 0.19 5873 03 May SSIpmM6 15945 15975 15820 155 15930 --- 75 0.47 7819 03 May SSIamM6 16115 16135 15945 190 16005 16005 155 0.96 6312
WEEKLY
MAY
APRIL
2016
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
16425 16130 16425 15820 17740 15320 18945 14770 (09/May) (09/May) (09/May) (03/May) (22/Apr) (07/Apr) (04/Jan) (12/Feb)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
RESISTANCE
17165 Pivot line (1-H chart)
17120 Pivot line (1-H chart)
16900 Pivot line (1-D chart)
16610 Reaction high on 1-H chart
SUPPORT
16130 Reaction low on 1-H chart
15820 Double Bottom 15670 Low 12/Apr/2016 15510 Low 11/Apr/2016
RECOMMENDATION
BUY 16250 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 16125 TARGET 16450 16565Fundamental & Technical Outlook
Rabu 04 Mei 2016ASIA STOCK INDEX
Page 4 of 5
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – P.T. Platon Niaga Berjangka Menara Karya 20th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2
Jakarta 12950 Indonesia – (021) – 25533773 Fax (021) - 25533776
KSM6 (Kospi June Futures) – Exp. Date: 09 Jun. 2016
•
Koreksi sedang uji trendline
support di sekitar 242
•
Target downtick di 241
•
Waspadai
RSI
di
zona
oversold (26)
(Research – @ErwinRiset)
DATE
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
RANGE
CLOSE
SETTLE
CHANGE
%
CHANGE
VOLUME
09 May 243.20 243.45 242.10 1.35 242.55 242.55 0.80 0.33 86757 06 May H O L I D A Y 05 May H O L I D A Y 04 May 243.20 243.90 242.30 1.60 243.35 243.35 1.10 0.45 103521 03 May 245.00 245.00 243.80 1.20 244.45 244.45 0.20 0.08 78574WEEKLY
MAY
APRIL
2016
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
243.45 242.10 245.15 242.10 250.30 240.00 250.30 223.10 (09/May) (09/May) (02/May) (09/May) (20/Apr) (08/Apr) (20/Apr) (20/Jan)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
RESISTANCE
250.30 Triple Top 248.50 Pivot line 246.25 Pivot line 244.00 Pivot lineSUPPORT
241.00 Pivot line240.00 Low 08/Apr/2016 (Bottom)
237.50 Pivot line 234.90 Low 29/Feb/2016
RECOMMENDATION
BUY ---- SELL 243.10 STOP LOSS 244.20 TARGET 241.40 240.55RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – P.T. Platon Niaga Berjangka
HSIK6 (Hang Seng May Futures) – Exp. Date: 30 May 2016
•
Daily trend mulai berubah
bearish, namun RSI sudah
oversold (24)
•
Target downtick di 19700
(Research – @ErwinRiset)DATE
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
RANGE
CLOSE
SETTLE
CHANGE
%
CHANGE
VOLUME
09 May 20161 20207 19968 239 20049 20049 74 0.37 114278 06 May 20173 20246 19887 359 19975 19975 309 1.55 121561 05 May 20210 20391 20195 196 20284 20284 16 0.08 106492 04 May 20366 20461 20274 187 20300 20300 244 1.20 117505 03 May 20962 20987 20502 485 20544 20544 310 1.49 118074 02 May H O L I D A YWEEKLY
MAY
APRIL
2016
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
HIGH
LOW
20207 19968 20987 19887 21664 19967 21857 18217 (09/May) (09/May) (03/May) (06/May) (21/Apr) (08/Apr) (04/Jan) (12/Feb)
ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION
RESISTANCE
20514 Reaction high on 1-H chart
20391 Reaction high on 1-H chart
20207 High 09/May/2016
20163 Reaction high on 1-H chart
SUPPORT
19813 Low 09/Mar/2016 (Reaction low)
19725 Pivot line (1-D chart)
19400 Pivot line (1-D chart)
19287 Low 02/Mar/2016
