Kuliah Umum di Fakultas Ekonomi UNPAR

Kuliah Umum

–

Sesi Pagi

Adaptasi dan

Mitigasi

Perubahan Iklim

Joseph Viandrito, SE, Msi.

Bahasan kita pagi ini:

• Apakah Perubahan Iklim itu ada atau bualan semata?

• Apa hubungannya Perubahan Iklim dengan Ilmu Ekonomi?

• Mengapa pandangan Schumpeter kian penting untuk kita?

• Apa mungkin pembangunan ekonomi tanpa fosil?

• Apa peluang kerja yang terkait Perubahan Iklim?

• Adaptasi dan Mitigasi Perubahan Iklim berbasis masyarakat itu seperti

apa?

• Sebagai akademisi, kita bisa menyumbang apa untuk adaptasi dan

Apakah Perubahan Iklim itu ada atau bualan

semata?

• Tahun 1998, Robert B. Laughlin, dapat Nobel bidang Fisika, yang

menegaskan tidak ada kaitannya konsumsi energi yang tinggi yang menghasilkan gas rumah kaca dengan perubahan iklim. Itu cuma hal natural, suatu siklus geologis 100 tahunan, bukan karena industry.

• Tahun 2007, Al Gore, tokoh yang

rajin kampanye perubahan iklim dapat Hadiah Nobel Perdamaian

 melegitimasi bahwa perubahan

Apakah Perubahan Iklim itu ada atau bualan semata?

• Cuaca ekstrim makin sering terjadi: badai, cyclone, puting-beliung…

• Polusi udara: asap, meningkatnya CO2

• Berkurangnya air tanah

• Seringnya tanah longsor dan banjir bandang

• Meningkatnya pencairan salju di gunung dan kutub

• Makin panas dan lamanya musim kemarau

• Naiknya temperatur udara

• Intrusi air laut ke daratan

• Naiknya permukaan air laut dan hilangnya pulau-pulau

• Berubahnya musim tanam

Toba effect

• Letusan gunung Toba, 73,000 tahun lalu berdampak serius, tidak hanya pada iklim global, tapi juga sejarah umat manusia.

• Gunung Toba menyemburkan 2,800

km3 _{material debu ke udara. Bandingkan}

dengan letusan Gunung Tambora yang

hanya 20 km3_{.dan Gunung St. Helena yang}

hanya 1 km3._{. Akibatnya, cahaya matahari}

tak bisa menembus bumi selama 6

tahun, hingga bumi mengalami jaman es selama 1,000 tahun. Populasi manusia merosot jadi hanya 10,000 orang.

• Out of Afri a dan

Climate Change Effects Impacts on Indonesia

Disappearing Small Islands Salt Water Intrusion

Decline in Fisheries Harvest Loss of Biodiversity

Increased Fire Risk

Increased Disease Risk, Range Floods and Land Slides

Changes in Planting Season Drought, Food Security

Changes in mean climate, variability, extreme events

and sea level rise

Impact on poverty and national development

planning targets Impact on the eight MDG

Increased temperature and changes in precipitation reduce agricultural and natural resources

Change in precipitation, run-off and variability leads to greater water stress

Increased incidence or intensity of climate related disasters lead to damage to assets and infrafstructure

Temperature, water and vegetation changes contribute to increase prevalence of disease

Lowered industrial output and labour productivity, high inequality, impacts on trade, and fiscal and macro-economic growth, and poverty-reducing effects

Reduced productivity and security of poor

people‟s livelihood

assets, and reduced access for the poor to their livelihood assets

Less effective coping strategies among the poor, and increased vulnerability of poor people

1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Food security jeopardized, more intense disasters threaten livelihood

2. Achieve universal primary education

More vulnerable livelihoods means more children engaged in employment; infrastructure damage from disasters

3. Promote gender equality and empower women

Women make up two-thirds of world’s poor and are more adversely impacted by disasters.

4. Reduce child mortality

Children more vulnerable to malaria and other diseases, which are spread more widely by climate change

5. Improve maternal health

Pregnant woman particularly susceptible to malaria

6. Combat HIV/ AIDS, malaria and other diseases

Increase prevalence of mosquito-bone diseases

7. Ensure environmental sustainability

Climate change indication of unsustainable practices. Move toward more energy-efficient model of consumption

8. Promote global Partnerships

Impact on Indonesia

 Deforestation rate (2000 –2005) -> 2,8 Million Ha/year & Forest fire (West Borneo in 2006) -> loss of 91 Million USD (source: www.beritabumi.or.id)

 Flood (February 2007) result in 8 Billion USD loss (source: www.detikfinance.com)

 Landslide -> 80 Million USD/year

 Human health : Dengue, Malaria, Diarrhea

 Landslide: There were > 1,400 disasters in the period of 2003-2005 and around 53% related to hydro-meteorology (34% was flooding and 16% landslide)

 Rise of Sea Level

 The disappearing of small Island -> within 2005 –2007, 24 small islands disappear, the location:

• 3 island in Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam (NAD)

• 3 island in Papua

• 5 island in Riau

• 2 island in west sumatera

• 7 island in the coastal area of Jakarta (source: Ministry of Oceanary & Fishery)

 Drought (Cirebon District in 2006) result in loss of 8.6Million USD (source:

http://greenpena.blogspot.com)

 During El Nino years (1994, 1997,2002, 2003, 2004 and 2006) shown that 8 reservoirs in Java have produced electricity below normal capacities

Impact on Indonesia - Drought

 The availability of water is very dependent on the climate, due to the limited supply of water (only covers about 37% of urban population and 8% of rural population) causing people and industries use deep groundwater resources  land subsidence that creates areas vulnerable to flood and salt water

Bye-bye suku

Asmat, Bintuni, Pontianak, Banjarmasin, Palembang, Semarang, Suraba

ya, Jakarta….

Mitigasi dan Adaptasi, apa bedanya?

• Respon perubahan iklim yang telah, sedang, dan akan terjadi adalah dengan

Mitigasi dan Adaptasi

–

definisi

• Mitigasi - suatu intervensi antropogenik (yang dilakukan manusia) untuk

mengurangi tekanan yang berasal dari manusia pada sistem iklim; ini

mencakup strategi-strategi untuk mengurangi sumber-sumber dan emisi-emisi gas rumah kaca serta upaya untuk meningkatkan penyerap gas rumah kaca

• Adaptasi - penyesuaian dalam sistem alam atau sistem manusia sebagai

respons terhadap stimulus iklim yang aktual telah ada atau yang diperkirakan akan terjadi atau pengaruh-pengaruh dari stimulus

• Perubahan iklim akan mempengaruhi risiko bencana dalam dua hal, pertama dengan meningkatnya ancaman-ancaman cuaca dan iklim, dan kedua dengan meningkatkan kerentanan masyarakat

terhadap ancaman-ancaman bahaya alam, terutama melalui degradasi ekosistem, serta perubahan-perubahan dalam penghidupan

masyarakat.

• Perubahan iklim juga akan menambah tekanan lain terhadap

penurunan kualitas lingkungan hidup dan pertumbuhan perkotaan yang cepat dan tidak terencana baik, yang selanjutnya akan semakin

mengurangi kemampuan masyarakat untuk mengatasi bahkan tingkat ancaman cuaca yang ada saat ini.

Perubahan Energi

Adaptasi : Menghadapi dampak –mengelola yang dak bisa dihindari

Mi gasi : Menghadapi penyebab – menghindari yang dak bisa dikelola

Klasik, Keynes dan Schumpeter

• Mazhab klasik:

Untuk memenuhi kebutuhan diperlukan faktor-faktor produksi:

• Tanah  koloni, penjajahan

• Modal  wabah cari emas

• Sumber daya alam  rempah-rempah

• Tenaga kerja  perbudakan

Tangan tak kelihatan yang akan

mengatur segala sesuatunya menjadi efisien.

Ekonomi otomatis akan mencapai equilibrium. Tapi kok ada stagflasi?

Keynes bilang, negara tidak boleh sepenuhnya lepas

tangan, perlu campur-tangan lewat intervensi fiscal

Schumpeter bilang:

Itu semua tidak cukup.

Pertumbuhan bisa terjadi hanya lewat: evolusi

• James Watt adalah bagian dari kelas menengah masyarakat yang sedang tumbuh, haus pengetahuan, ingin cepat kaya melalui

terobosan inovasi.

• Tahun 1760 (9 tahun sebelum ditemukan mesin uap), Inggris

mengimpor 1,000 ton kapas. Tahun 1850, impor kapas jadi 220,000 ton. Apa cerita selanjutnya? Cari pasar! (cari jajahan)

• Datanglah era Revolusi Industri di Barat, yang secara rakus

mengkonsumsi bahan bakar dari fosil: batubara, gas dan minyak bumi.

Mengapa revolusi industri tidak bermula di China, tapi

malah Inggris, padahal ada banyak penemuan penting?

Penemuan dan inovasi di China:

Mata bajak – abad 6 SM, Besi tuang/cor – 4 SM, Ubah besi tuang jadi baja – 2 SM, Jembatan gantung – 1 SM, Kemudi – 1 M, Pintu air – 10 M, Mesin

pintal – 12 M

Bahkan 71 tahun sebelum Columbus menemukan Amerika dengan tiga kapal kecilnya, Laksamana Ceng Ho dengan lebih dari 100 kapal besar sudah

berlayar hingga Afrika, Amerika, Australia, Antartika

Ini sejalan dengan Teori Karl Marx bahwa faktor Social politik berperan

Mengapa revolusi industri tidak terjadi di

Indonesia?

• Kerajaan-kerajaan lama masih bermazhab merkantilis, hingga

datangnya penjajah yang justru menegaskan mazhab itu.

• Di jaman modern, lingkungan sosio-politik (seperti oligarki kekuasaan

dengan kolusi, korupsi & nepotismenya) sangat berpengaruh.

Lihatlah Indonesia 1998, yang tadinya digadang-gadang jadi The New Emerging Tiger (PDB per kapita $1050 - 1996), malah jadi The New Beggar ($400 - 1998)

• Ulangan saat Raja Jawa (Pakubuwono) harus bayar VOC 10,000 real tiap tahun selama 20 tahun, dan 1,700 ton beras tiap tahun, 15,000 real untuk biayai

Pertumbuhan ekonomi cuma 5

–

7%. Bisa lebih nggak sih?

• Kapal besar disubsidi malah jual solar. Ikan dicuri

• Perijinan didagangin. Pajak dimainin

• Infus (subsidi) ke perbankan untuk menyehatkan (BLBI/Century), malah infusnya yang di- sikat .

• Kredit untuk masyarakat untuk berinvestasi, malah lebih banyak untuk konsumsi.

• APBN dan APBD tidak memberi insentif fiscal, karena porsi anggaran rutinnya terlalu dominan  moratorium PNS 5thn.

• Masyarakat tidak kreatif, apalagi inovatif, malah konsumtif: impor garam (Gandhi?), impor minyak, impor beras, impor buah, impor daging.

• Indonesia selalu juara sebagai negara paling terkorup (Transparancy International)

• Ikut pakta perdagangan bebas, tapi tidak siap jadi produsen, lebih siap jadi konsumen

Besarnya Konsumsi

katanya menyelamatkan

Indonesia saat krisis ekonomi

Jika semua warga negara di bumi bergaya hidup seperti orang

Amerika, diperlukan 4,16 bumi. Kalau ikut gaya hidup India Cuma 0,49 bumi. Gaya hidup Indonesia? Bandung?

• Konsumsi tinggi, tapi duitnya cuma dari menjual bahan mentah.

Mending kalau stoknya banyak.

• Barang tambang dan minyak terus dikeduk, dijual

sebanyak-banyaknya (hanya sampai 2014?)  pertumbuhan ekonomi tinggi

Overview of major regulatory frameworks on mining

...there appears to be a power struggle: Nationalist vs. Localist, Protectionist vs. Liberalist...

Resource Nationalist vs.

Liberalist for 65 minerals

Mining revenue & bigger role of national government over

local govt.

Presidential Decree No. 3 of 2012 –Establishment

Mining in the years ahead

The Power of Regional Autonomy

and the risk for WBN

-The regional authorities of the provinces, regencies and municipalities shall administer and manage their own

affairs according to the principles of regional autonomy and the duty of

assistance

(1945 CONSTITUTION Article 18 (2)

Many mining companies operate inside or close to WBN mining areas. They already have IPPKH (Permits for Forest Borrow & Use for mining exploration activity -Izin Pinjam Pakai Kawasan Hutan Untuk Kegiatan Eksplorasi

Tambang)from the Ministry of Forestry:

1. PT Adita Nickel Indonesia (#1)

2. PT Adidaya Tangguh (#2 –Blok 6, dan #3 –Blok A1) 3. PT Bintara Hardasurya #4 –Blok D1, dan #6 –Blok D4) 4. PT Gane Tambang Sentosa (#7)

5. PT Indotama Mineral Indonesia (#11 –Blok H 3) 6. PT Nusa Halmahera Minerals (#12)

7. PT Zouk (#15 –Blok G2) (Source: Forestry Ministry)

• How are their ties with the local government?

• Who owns those companies?

Note: WBN i for ed that the area has ee dee ed y the go er e t as lea a d lear , ea i g that it does ot o erlap ith other i i g o pa ies.

The provincial government has the right to cancel the license if the mining activities destroy the environment (Law

No. 32 of 2009 on the Protection and Management of the Environment).

Hai calon Sarjana

Ekonomi, apa

pandanganmu?

Realisasi Pengeluaran Kota Cilegon Menurut Jenis Tahun Anggaran 2011

• Pendapatan asli daerah hanya berkontribusi 29,50% atau sekitar Rp253,212,004,831 dari total pendapatan daerah sebesar

Rp858,320,973,326.

• Belanja Rutin = 81 %, Belanja Modal = 19%, Tak terduga = 0.1%

• Apa kerjanya orang yang sudah menghabiskan 81% itu, dan pembangunan macam apa dengan hanya menyisihkan 19%?.

• Apa masih perlu kita membayar pajak, kalau ternyata tidak dialokasikan untuk

Inovasi itu rohnya pertumbuhan ekonomi

• Peran faktor produksi terhadap pertumbuhan

Sumber: Science and Technology Policy Institute

Inovasi adalah hasil kerja kreatif yang memerlukan kegigihan , eksperimen serta analisis cermat dan akhirnya dapat dimanfaatkan oleh users/konsumen

Faktor produksi 1970-an 1980-an 1990-an

Tenaga kerja & modal

79,2% 63,9% 58,5%

Pilih jadi bangsa perakit, pembuat atau

pemulung?

• Dari ade-i ke i o ated-i

• Klaster teknologi tumbuh seperti jamur. Mengikuti pola Silicon Valley, Cina bikin klaster serupa di Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, dll (12 kota); India di Bangalore, Daedeok di Korea, Hsinchu di Taiwan dan Biopolis di Singapura.

• Klaster teknologi China berhasil menarik 12,000 perusahaan hi-tech, termasuk 43 perusahaan hi-tech dunia seperti Microsoft, Intel, Google, NEC.

• Bagaimana Indonesia?

• Indonesia berencana membangun Bandung High Tech Valley (1996) tapi dihajar

KrisMon, Sekarang baru digagas lagi Bandung Raya Innovation Valley (BRIV), tapi masih tidak jelas.

• Konsumen rakus produk teknologi, seperti smartphone, computer, dll. bikinan China

• Menurut Laporan World Economic Forum 2012-2013, ada 5 besar penghambat daya saing Indonesia: Inefisiensi birokrasi, Korupsi, infrastruktur rendah, akses pembiayaan, inflasi.

Zizhu chuangxin !!

(inovasi di tangan sendiri, di tanah sendiri)

• Dari ade-i ke i o ated-i

• Klaster teknologi tumbuh seperti jamur. Mengikuti pola Silicon Valley, Cina bikin klaster serupa di Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, dll (12 kota); India juga bikin di Bangalore, Daedeok di Korea, Hsinchu di Taiwan dan Biopolis di Singapura.

• Klaster teknologi di China berhasil menarik 12,000 perusahaan hi-tech, termasuk 43 perusahaan hi-tech dunia seperti Microsoft, Intel, Google, NEC.

• Dana riset terus meningkat: 1,49% GDP (2007)  2,5% (2020)

• Insentif penemuan baru yang dipatenkan  pemotongan pajak 25%

• Jumlah paten melonjak 73%: 99,278 (2001)  171.619 (2005)

Bagaimana Indonesia?

• Indonesia: Dana Riset 1% PDB. Sarjana teknik 11,5%, Sarjana sains 3,6%

• Indonesia berencana membangun Bandung High Tech Valley (1996) tapi dihajar

KrisMon, Sekarang baru digagas lagi Bandung Raya Innovation Valley (BRIV), tapi masih tidak jelas.

• Konsumen rakus produk teknologi, seperti smartphone, computer, dll. bikinan China

• Menurut Laporan World Economic Forum 2012-2013, ada 5 besar penghambat daya saing Indonesia: Inefisiensi birokrasi, Korupsi, infrastruktur rendah, akses

pembiayaan, inflasi.

• Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia mengandalkan ekspor bahan mentah (termasuk bahan bakar fosil) dan konsumsi, tanpa dorongan inovasi/entrepreneurship dan produksi.

Bercita-cita mencapai PDB 3,7 trilyun dollar di tahun 2025.

PDB 2010 masih $419 milyar. Apa nggak ketinggian mimpinya? Bisa, asal ikut kata Schumpeter: Terus berinovasi. Tapi kok….

1. Masih kurang insentif dan dukungan regulasi

• Proses persetujuan paten 1,5 – 3 tahun + biaya registrasi Rp2,5 juta

• Tidak ada insentif atau potongan pajak buat industry yang alokasikan dana litbang atau inovasi produk.

2. Komunikasi dan interaksi kalangan akademisi dan bisnis masih lemah

• Kalangan bisnis masih enggan memanfaatkan hasil riset akademisi. Masih lebih senang jualan barang asing/distributorship yang sudah diriset asing.

• Kapasitas riset universitas tidak dimanfaatkan (diajak kerjasama, untuk riset pasar)  kasus produk Halalku .

3. Technopreneurship masih kurang

4. Tidak ada klaster inovasi yang tersebar.

• Perlu hati-hati memaknai jargo mari kita tingkatkan investasi asing , kalau itu hanya

berarti kita jadi tukang rakit, tidak akan berguna. Inovasi adalah kunci.

• Masing-masing daerah punya keunikan. Contoh: Indonesia Timur bisa melakukan banyak inovasi kelautan. Seperti di Larantuka, Sucofindo

berinovasi membuat pembangkit listrik tenaga arus laut, tapi terhambat besarnya dana riset dan economies of scale.

• Riset tentang potensi sumber daya laut untuk medis belum dilakukan.

5. Remunerasi peneliti (innovator) terlalu kecil.

• Gaji pokok Profesor Gol. IV/E di LIPI sebesar Rp3,6 juta + tunjangan Rp1,6 juta = Rp5,2 juta per bulan. Bandingkan dengan gaji Guru SD

golongan IV/A di Serang dengan take home pay = Rp6,5 juta per bulan. Di Malaysia, peneliti tingkat professor = Rp36 juta. Di Jepang = Rp60 juta. Honor konsultan riset individual di Indonesia = $400 – $1,000 per hari.

6. Fasilitas litbang tidak memadai

• Lihatlah Puspiptek Serpong yang mangkrak

7. Manajemen litbang tidak kondusif

• Banyak lembaga riset jalan sendiri-sendiri: BBSDLP, LIPI, dll.

• Kita lihat apakah pembentukan Kementerian Baru yang menyatuan Perguruan Tinggi dengan Ristek bakal memperbaiki koordinasi dan manajemen litbang.

Kapasitas Ekonomi Indonesia 2012 2030

Peringkat Perekonomian Dunia 16 7

Penduduk Kelas Konsumen 45 juta 135 juta Penduduk yang tinggal di perkotaan 53% 71% Sumbangan terhadap PDB 74% 86%

Membuat dan menjual apa yang dibutuhkan.

Tidak lebih.

• Frugal innovation

 Scenario:

• Sedikitnya sumber daya

• Lemahnya daya beli

• Besarnya kebutuhan

Muncul inovasi produk yang terjangkau: Mobil Tata Motors (india) = Rp18 juta, Kacamata, jam tangan dan motor murah dari China, motor ambulans dari Afsel. Operasi by-pass jantung di Bangalore, India cuma

$7,500, bandingkan dengan di Amerika $144 ribu. RS yang spesifik dan tidak perlu membeli peralatan super mahal yang tidak dibutuhkan, membuat harga operasi jadi murah. Turbin pembangkit listrik mikrohidro

Hanjuang karya Eddy Permadi (Desa Cihanjuang, Cimahi) jadi murah karena komponen local, sehingga mudah dirawat, diganti onderdilnya.

• Crowd sourcing  Penjaringan ide berhadiah:

• www.apaidemu.org

Apa peluang kerja yang terkait Perubahan

Iklim?

• Bidang pangan: Inovasi pupuk organic (biofertilizer), membuat database mikroba local, database benih lokal, bidang biologi molekuler: Benih unggul tahan iklim. Sejauh ini Balai Benih Padi dan Sereal Maros baru temukan benih jagung kaya vitamin A.

• Bidang kesehatan: riset biologi berbasis keanekaragaman hayati dan budaya Indonesia, buat database vaksin (flu burung, bisa

ular, campak, dll.), inventarisasi sumber daya genetic (darat dan laut).

• Bidang energy: riset teknologi renewable energy aplikatif per daerah

• Helping especially benefit projects that also support adaptation

activities.

1.ADVOCATING for just policies to

mitigate climate

change and support

poor communities‟

adaptation efforts

• Embarking on a process of

ORGANIZATIONAL

CHANGE to adapt policies and procedures to the

realities of climate change

• Bidang air bersih: bersinergi dengan semua stakeholders, buat regulasi yang jaga sumber mata air (bukan buat industry air kemasan saja), mendorong penerapan teknologi applikatif untuk menjaga sungai, danau, setu dari pencemaran kimbah dan sampah.

• Bidang sosial: mendukung Desa mandiri energy, desa pemanfaat air  Kasus Desa klotok, tuban

• Bidang ekonomi: Pegawai/Pejabat fungsional di Kementerian (menyiasati

Apa mungkin pembangunan

ekonomi tanpa fosil?

• Saat ini 85% produksi masih bergantung

pasokan energi fosil. Dunia

menghabiskannya dengan sangat

cepat, meski proses membuatnya butuh

waktu ratusan juta tahun.

• Fossil fuels take millions of years to make. We are using up the fuels that were made more than 300 million years ago. So, it's best to not waste fossil fuels. They are not renewable; they can't really be made again. We can save fossil fuels by conserving

Oil “ho k

tahun 1970-an. Apa akibatnya bagi dunia?

• Negara OPEC mengembargo minyak. Harga pun melonjak.

• Denmark menerapkan pajak karbon dan banting setir ke energy angin  Denmark today is the world's leading exporter of wind turbines and has an unemployment rate of about 2 percent.

• Shah Iran memacu modernisasi, malah backfire dan memicu revolusi Islam. Ayatollah Khomeini jadi popular dengan melakukan subsidi harga minyak keseluruh negeri. (Iran's government earned $44.6 billion from oil exports and spent $25 billion on subsidies).

• Negara-negara Eropa dan Jepang merespons dengan manaikkan pajak bensin. Jepang secara drastis melakukan efisiensi energy.

• Brazil segera memproduksi ethanol dari gula tebu dan sekarang tidak lagi bergantung pada impor minyak.

• America  In 1975, Congress passed the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, which established corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards that required vehicle efficiency for new cars— to 27.5 miles per gallon—within ten years.

Enak jamanku, tho

?



Opo iyo, mbah?

• Bagi Indonesia, jaman itu bukan oil shock, tapi oil boom.

• Pemerintahan Suharto ditolong oleh oil boom tahun 1970-an. Banyak duit untuk menggerakkan roda pembangunan. Minyak dikuras, disisakan sedikit buat kita sekarang.

• Cadangan minyak Indonesia cuma 9 milyar barrel. Tiap tahun diambil 500 juta barrel. Ya sudah habis dalam 18 tahun.

• Kecukupan pangan karena revolusi hijau, tanah dipacu untuk menghasilkan dengan dihamburi pupuk kimia. Memang terjadi kecukupan hasil (enak jamanku, tho?)…. Tapi setelah itu tanah menurun produktivitasnya akibat pupuk kimia yang berlebih jamannya Suharto (Ora enak jamanku saiki, goro-goro jamanmu, mbah…)  proyek FAO di NTT/NTB.

"When oil prices became higher, the reforms

e a e slo e

• Suharto, Brezhnev, dan banyak diktator… diberkati oleh harga minyak yang tinggi. Saat harga jatuh, jatuh juga

mereka…

• Akhir decade 1980-an, harga minyak Cuma $10 – $40 per

Paman Sam ngomong ke Arab Saudi:

• Gu s, here's the deal: Keep your pumps open, keep your prices

low, and don't bother the Jews too much, and you can do whatever you want out back. You can treat your women badly. You can deprive your people of what- ever civil rights you like. You can print whatever crazy conspiracy theo-ries about us you like. You can educate your

children to be intolerant of other faiths as much as you like.. . . Only one thing we want from you: Just keep your pumps open, your prices

low, don't hassle the Israelis too much—and do whatever you want

out back."

Kita masih tergantung energy fosil.

Lalu pilihannya apa?

Komponen Energi 2005

Batubara Minyak Gas Terbarukan

Energi Nuklir – Direncanakan tahun 2016

berdiri PLTN Gunung Muria

 masih ditentang masyarakat

Energi Gas – Tahun 1986 digaungkan

program langit biru.

Lho kok jumlah mobil gas malah turun: 6,000 mobil BBG (2000) jadi 2,500 mobil

BBG (2008)  stasiun pengisian masih

terbatas.

• Energi Gelombang Laut: Indonesia punya garis pantai 81.290 km, bisa

produksi energy 70 Giga Watt. (PLN tahun 2011 = 35 GW). Balai Pengkajian

Dinamika Pantai (BPDP) di Yogyakarta sudah bangu8n prototype  belum

didukung pemerintah pembuatannya.

• Energi angin: sejauh ini baru menghasilkan 1,8 Mega Watt dari total

potensi 9,29 Giga Watt

• Energi Surya: belum digarap. HIVOS dan MCA baru merintis di Pulau

Sumba.

• Energi Panas Bumi: Potensi total 28.803 Giga Watt

• Energi biomassa: sampah, limbah kelapa sawit

• Energi biogas: kotoran ternak

• Energi air: mikro-hydro

• Energi arus laut: Sucofindo sudah bikin. Feasibility study di Larantuka

Nasib Mobil Listrik

• Dasep Ahmadi, anak Depok, ciptakan mobil listrik Ah adi 5.0 tahun

2012.

• Jarak tempuh 150 km, cukup sekali charging 4 – 5 jam

• Pakai baterai lithium ion 36 buah kapasitas 21 kWh.

• Komponen impor masih 50%, PPN 10%, tanpa insentif

pemerintah, jadinya harga on-the-road = Rp200 jutaan, tapi biaya operasional cuma Rp50-60 ribu per bulan, jarena tak beli BBM.

• Persoalannya  pengisian listriknya agak report, dan tidak ada

Nasib Yoshua masih lebih baik ketimbang Dasep

• Mark Yoshua Widjaya, lulusan ITS, bikin rancangan mobil.

• Rencananya mau bikin sendiri, tapi dihitung-hitung besar biayanya.

Sebagai akademisi, kita bisa menyumbang apa

untuk adaptasi dan mitigasi perubahan iklim?

• Brand image UI, ITB, UGM. Unpar?

• Adakah skripsi yang membahas:

Sustainable economy, forest management, Valuing Benefit of Mangroves Forest, Maritime sector, Economics of Global

Warming, Sustainable Waste Management of Kali

Cikapundung, Stakeholder Mapping of Leather Industry in Garut, Cost

and Benefit of Land Acquisition of Chandra Asri, E o o of

Pope F a is: No to a e o o of e lusio

Just as the o a d e t Thou shalt ot kill sets a lear li it i order to safeguard the alue of hu a life, toda e also ha e to sa thou shalt ot to a e o o of e lusio

and inequality. Such an economy kills. How can it be that it is not a news item when an elderly homeless person dies of exposure, but it is news when the stock market loses two points? This is a case of exclusion. Can we continue to stand by when food is thrown away while people are starving? This is a case of inequality.

Today everything comes under the laws of competition and the survival of the

fittest, where the powerful feed upon the powerless. As a consequence, masses of people find themselves excluded and marginalized: without work, without possibilities, without any means of escape.

Human beings are themselves considered consumer goods to be used and then discarded.

We ha e reated a thro a a ulture hi h is o spreadi g. It is o lo ger si pl

about exploitation and oppression, but something new. Exclusion ultimately has to do with what it means to be a part of the society in which we live; those excluded are no longer

so iet ’s u derside or its fri ges or its dise fra hised – they are no longer even a part of

Diambil dari presentasi

A

dapting to Climate Change

in Western and Eastern Indonesia

Lessons-learned from Coastal Communities in Aceh

and Climate Smart Farmers in NTB/NTT

By: JOSEPH VIANDRITO

What we saw on the way to Tacloban...

After Yolanda/Haiyan

typhoon, the soil have been salinated or may have water intrusion from the sea. This has fostered the colonization of acrostichum (mangrove family) that may

replaced/took overthe dying coconut plants colony.

The soil condition may now more adaptive for planting mangrove and its mangrove family

(Acrostychum, Acantus, Sonn eratia, Casuarina, Bruguiera, e tc.), and may no longer

adaptive for coconut plants.

What we saw on the way to Tacloban...

What we saw on the way to Tacloban...

•Only two type of plants: Coconut and Nypa. No mangrove, no casuarina...

•Coconut colony is rapidly replaced (took over) by Nypa Palm colony

What we saw on the way to Tacloban...

•No mangrove

Most of coconut trees in Tacloban seems in the old age of production....

So this may be the right time to replant a more productive coconut trees, IF we can prepare the right environment for them to grow... (do ’t let acrostichum or nypa

colonize the coconut zones)

Besides, planting mangrove (Rhizopora sp.)

may be a good alternative livelihood

income for communities, since Philippines still depends on import of mangroves

wood (the skin part), that used as

ingredient to mix it with coconut sap in

o de to ake baloc a d tu a

Philippi es t aditio al li uo

Typhoon Haiyan has made

coconut production in Philippines dropped by more than 30%.

Indonesia experience

What kind of Climate Adaptation strategy that may protect Tacloban

people from the next typhoon?

What kinds of technology and innovation, that applicable to

communities and local government?

• 1st case: technology and innovation in mangrove planting, like study of hidrology, autecology and propagule disbursement.  Aceh case (Western Indonesia)

• 2nd case: the usage of technology and innovation in predicting rainfall for

o u it s pla ti g seaso , a d st ateg i i flue i g go e e t a d people to use the rainfall modelling  NTT/NTB case (Eastern Indonesia).

Western and Eastern Indonesia:

Different Problems to Climate Change

• I do esia is the o ld s la gest

archipelago, consisting of 17,000 islands and spanning across two biogeographic regions – the IndoMalayan (the western part) and Australasian (the eastern part).

When the Western Indonesia get rainy season, the eastern part still suffer by the drought

 Main problems related to climate change:

 In western Indonesia:

Deforestation, Forest Fires, Degradation of Peat Land and Land Conversion  The Causes of Climate Change.

 In eastern Indonesia:

Excessive Drought / Temperature Increase, Floods / Intense Rainfall, Sea Level Rise and Threat to Food Security  The Impacts of Climate Change

Indonesia

Go e

e t s

Climate Change Adaptation Priority

• Indonesia assigns priority to climate change adaptation programs in the four following areas:

(i) coastal areas,

(ii) food insecure areas in eastern Indonesia,

(iii) small islands, and

i Ja a s o the oast, the atio s ke i e p odu tio a eas

CASE STUDY 1:

Coastal Communities Adaptation

in Eastern Indonesia

The Need for Climate Change Adaptation in

Coastal Areas

Coastal areas are among the areas most affected by sea-level rise and land

subsidence-induced environmental

degradation. Both have exposed coastal areas to regular flooding. Investing in

coastal areas to adapt to sea-level rise, and protect the coastal communities from

disaster, is a key to meet the MDGs.

Aceh (represents western Indonesia) also facing big tectonic hazards (quake, tsunami) also stormsurge and typhoon. Therefore through many projects, people and government respond through supporting climate

adaptation practices in coastal zones. This includes planting soft barriers like mangrove trees; create programs to reduce deforestation and forest

Donors, governments, UN, and NGOs have invested a lots of money in mangroves planting projects to respond to

significant drop of Indonesia mangrove forest, from 3,7 million hectares (1993) to 1,5 million hectares (2005).

Why  mangroves rehabilitation projects, that supported by government and donors, are failed in many areas?

Aim of this presentation:

If all these following challenges and risks are well noted since the beginning of project, the higher rate of mangrove planting would be better, as we did in Aceh.

LESSONS-LEARNING FROM

Mangrove

Rehabilitation

Many kinds of mangroves species...

But why only Rhizopora sp. to be planted?

2. Beachfront planting blocks natural seeds flow and grow

Ministry of Forestry spend huge of funds for Mangrove

Rehabilitation Projects, but most of them are dying or failed...

3. Weak in Land Use Planning

Significant competing land uses exist by local

stakeholders/ governments ,

4. Environments are still drastically changing

(We are losing two beautiful lagoons in Cilacap – Central Java and in Singkil - Sumatera, because we are late in response...

The 1st: Segara Anakan Lake/ Lagoon, in

Cilacap, Central Java (left picture) is

dissapearing due to sedimentation.

No body take response action...

Government only

cares with rapid onset than slow onset

The 2nd Dissapearing Beautiful Lagoon: Danau Anak Laut, Singkil, Aceh

5. Mangrove fails to compete with other plants colonization

• Against casuarina, coconut trees or palm trees

plantation.

6. Uplifting and Downlifting process has challenged the sustainability of mangrove planting

• Regular earthquake drives the process of land down-lifting in west coastline of Sumatera, but uplifting in Sumatera outer islands

Up-lifting of Simeulue Islands (top, left and

9. Lack of knowledge on Species Ecology and Hydrologic

Patterns

• Many projects are lack of attention to patterns of reproduction, propagule

. La k of lo al o u ities se se of elo gi g to

Mangroves grows naturally without intervention in Simeulue

(Comparison: 2006 and 2011

All they need is

condusive environment

to grow...

They can grow by

CASE STUDY 2:

Climate Smart Farmers

in Eastern Indonesia

In food insecure areas in eastern Indonesia such as NTT and NTB, strong El-Niño events normally cause the problem of false rains, shortening the length of rainy season. This condition leads to farmers experiencing repeated crop failures and rendering it possible only to plant crops once in that year.

Crop failure due to drought during the 2006/07 El-Niño for

example, increased the reliance of NTT farmers to government aid. In

normal years, contribution of go e e t aid to fa e s total i o e as only 5%, but in 2006 El-Niño year, it increased to 60% (Kieft and

Soekarjo, 2007).

Therefore through many projects, supporting climate adaptation practices in agriculture and water resources. Climate Smart Farmers will have to consider more crop varieties, along with better water management and storage –

supported by more accurate and relevant forecasts that will help their planting and harvesting.

Disaste ‘isk i people s pe spe ti e

No Identified HAZARD in any villages

West Timor

Sumba Lombok Total Villages

1 Drought and excessive rain (impact to food insecurity)

12 14 0 26

2 Landslides 11 4 4 19

3 Plant pests 0 10 0 10

4 Typhoon/ hurricane 7 3 4 14

5 Floods 3 5 0 8

6 Livestock disease 0 7 0 7

7 Earthquake 0 0 3 3

To know how hard the new farming intervention would be,

a baseline survey (soil and socio-economic survey) was conducted...

District Name

Number of Number of soil sample Number

of So-sec responde

nts District Village Farmer

Group

Lombok Barat 1 1 10

Lombok Timur 2 2 12

Challe ges i a keti g e i dset

for climate smart agriculture (CSA)

• It is not easy to change the mindset of conventional agriculture into climate smart agriculture concept:

• No e ha i al soil distu a e • Pe a e t soil o e

• C op otatio

Challenging to market ideas to Farmers that,

 Have limited educational background: In Lombok 47.40% farmer participants are not finished elementary school while in Sumba and Timor (46.2% and 50.1% consecutively).

 Have limited land ownership. In Lombok, the average dry land ownership is only 1.24 hectare per household with dominantly only single cropping pattern (82.10%). The average maize yields are 3.27 ton/hectare in Lombok. The

It is also hard to change farming practices...

• The baseline survey result also showed that mostly crop residues are

intentionally burnt (43.4% in Lombok, 41.7% in Timor, and 25.5% in

Sumba, which in Sumba only 38.7% respondents stated that they collect crop residue for livestock feeds. The rest is to be burned.

• In Lombok most of the farmer respondent use inorganic fertilizer for their

crop (96.10% respondents) while in Sumba and Timor most farmers use organic fertilizer (56.60% in Sumba and 80.6% in Timor). In Lombok and Sumba most farmers use herbicide to control weeds (76.30% and

...and, soil fertility

is low...

Level of C organic content

Very low (Below 1

%) 24

35.82 33 76.74 22 32.84

Low (1– 2 %) 38 56.72 10 23.26 10 14.93

Moderate (2– 3 %) 5 7.46 17 25.37

High (3–5 %) 17 25.37

Very high above 5 %

1 1.49

Soil Bio-physics Baseline Survey Results

• C organic content. Generally organic content (C in %) in almost sample site in Lombok and Timor are very low, but in Sumba generally are higher than Lombok and Timor.

The analyses result of C organic content showed that 92.54 % of soil sample from Timor have very low to low C organic content. In Lombok all soil sample have very low to low C organic content. While in Sumba 47.76 % soil sample have very low to low C organic content and 52.24 % with moderate to high C organic content.

• Climate characteristic of NTB and NTT Province.

Most areas in NTT amounting 4,334,487hectare (94.80%) and NTB 1,899,733

To join as participants in Climate Smart Agriculture Project will certainly make them totally change their mindset and habit....

Still, there is a hope for climate smart

agriculture

• Interestingly, % farmer stated that they want to participate the project because they are interested with the methods and

approach of the Climate Smart Agriculture is high: Lombok 53.9 % of respondents, Sumba 73.6 %, and Timor 82.90%.

• Why?  Farmer participants expect that through CSA they will be able to improve crop yields, improve soil fertility, and have better collaboration with group members.

• In Sumba and Timor most farmers (48.10% and 73.20%) stated that their agricultural yield less sufficient for family

• Their interest to know about climate uncertainty related to crop plantings could be used as entering point to convert them into climate smart farmers. Most farmers in the target areas

consider that uncertain climate rainfall as the main factor (out of other 7 factors) influencing their agricultural activities

(30.20% in Lombok, 34.90% in Sumba, and 35.30% in Timor).

• In Sumba 47.20% frequently face food shortage and in Timor 34.1% stated rarely face food shortage. Food shortage in

...and Climate Smart Farmers try...

• Left: Test plot area in Sandubaya Experimental Station before cover crops planting

• Right: Early growth stage of maize on ridge and furrows system at CA plot of Patuh Angen Farmer group in Mareje, Lombok Barat. This area never

...and Climate Smart Farmers achieve...

Left: Pumpkins as cover crops on maize crops in Sandubaya Lombok

Right: The observation showed that maize with CSA techniques grow better

Predict the rainfall and set plan for

planting season with communities

April 2013 Mei 2013

Rainfall prediction in TTU, West Timor

April 2013 Proyeksi Curah Hujan di Sumba Timur_{Rainfall prediction in East Sumba}

Running Model

Rainfall mapping

Administrative map

Involvement and

engagement of as many as

stakeholders will ensure

Who will support climate smart farmers

and ensuring sustainability?

A Stakeholder Influence and Engagement Analysis was conducted to systematically map and evaluate influential groups (not limited to government

agencies) and individuals that works on the issues of climate adaptation and DRR at provincial and district level. This will include those who are instrumental in shaping public perceptions and influencing regulatory framework, and crucial to build a foundation for ustainability.

Influence parameters to be analyzed: Coverage of Influence

(local, provincial, national), Organizational Capacity, Budget profile, Personel capacity, and Program Capacity.

Engagement parameters: Enthusiasm to involve, Policy

Bupati

Dinas Pertambangan dan Energi PMI

Pondok Pesantren/ Sekolah BPTP

Stakeholder's Closeness in Lombok Island

-0

Stakeholder's Influence and Engagement in Lombok Island

-evaluatio of project part ers’ achieve e t

-Bupati

Terima kasih

Georgius Joseph Viandrito

Education:

• International Certificates on Tsunami Science and Preparedness Dual Degree, 2008, University of Washington & Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok.

• Master Degree, Graduate of International Studies Programme 1999, University of Indonesia.

• Bachelor Degree, Economics Science and Development Studies, Faculty of Economics, UNPAR Bandung

Selected Recent Assignments:

 Climate Change Expert – Transtec, Belgium (2014)

 Senior Socio-Economics at Hatfield International, Canada (present)

 M&E Expert FAO for “Reducing Disaster Risk Caused by Changing Climate in NTB and NTT Provinces in Indonesia” project (2013 – present)

 Senior Specialist at Millennium Challenge Account (present)

 Final Evaluator for the European Union to review and assess the impact of EU/ECHO-funded assistance programs in Indonesia from 2007–2012

 Chief of Party of Climate Adaptation & Disaster Resilience Project, USAID, Indonesia, 2011-2012

 Project Manager at Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) in Bangkok, Thailand, 2009-2010

 Hub Coordinator for ASEAN Humanitarian Task Force in Myanmar, 2008-2009

 Final Evaluator for the USAID/World Neighbors’ project: “Adapting to Climate Change in Eastern Indonesia”

 Final Evaluator for UNDP/UNODC project: “Countering Illegal Logging and the linkage between Forest Crime and Corruption in Indonesia”

 Legal Research & Disaster Management Consultant for International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) Asia Pacific - Kuala

Lumpur, Malaysia in 2012, to conduct a research to analyze the impact of Law No.24/2007 and its subsequent regulations

 Consultant for AUSAID/AIFDR (Australian-Indonesian Facility for Disaster Reduction) in 2010 to facilitate the process of making Standard Operation

Procedure (SOP) for BNPB’s Rapid Assessment Task Force

 UNDP Program Manager for Integrated IDPs Settlement and Development Programme in Southeast Sulawesi, 2004-2005