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IHSG berpeluang flat hari ini
Bursa AS tutup semalam memperingati Martin Luther King Jr, sementara bursa Eropa melemah menyusul penguatan yang siknifikan selama 2 minggu terakhir, dan diwarnai pula oleh laporan kinerja dan outlook sejumlah emiten yang mixed. Tutupnya bursa AS membuat volume transaksi di bursa Eropa menurun.
IHSG menguat tipis pada perdagangan terakhirnya. Investor asing
membukukan net sell di pasar reguler Rp 248 miliar. Harga komoditas yang cenderung menguat menjadi hal positif bagi saham-saham komoditas.
Sementara itu, nilai tukar rupiah masih bisa mendapat dorongan penguatan dari kecenderungan pelemahan USD index. Melihat semua hal tersebut, penurunan bursa global, dan antisipasi earnings season, kami
memperkirakan IHSG akan relatif flat hari ini.
Highlights
BJTM: Laba bersih FY17 meningkat
Sektor batubara: Kontrak Batu Bara Stabil
AISA: Turun Peringkat
: 6,382.2
: +12.1 (+0.2%) : 4,050 Mn shrs : 5,327 Bn rupiah CloseLast +/- %
BMRI 8,200 100 1.2
BBNI 9,500 225 2.4
UNVR 54,600 350 0.6
BYAN 10,800 550 5.4
HMSP 4,850 -70 -1.4
GGRM 82,000 -1050 -1.3
INTP 22,200 -500 -2.2
ISAT 5,775 -225 -3.8
Foreign Net Buy / Sell
Net Buy (Rpbn) Net Sell (Rpbn)
BMRI 63 BBRI 156
BBCA 41 TLKM 119
ADHI 22 BBNI 89
PTBA 19 ASII 39
WSKT 16 SCMA 23 Money Market
Last
Close +/- %
USD/IDR 13,335 -19.0 0.1
JIBOR O/N 3.9 0.0 -
Infl (MoM) 0.7 - -
Dual Listing Securities
CloseLast +/- %
TLKM 31.3 0.2 0.7
ISAT 54.9 0.0 0.0
EIDO 29.2 0.1 0.3
World Indices Last
Close +/- %
DJIA 25,803 228 0.9
S&P 500 2,786 19 0.7
Euro Stoxx 3,612 -1 0.0
MSCI World 2,194 9 0.4
Nikkei 23,730 15 0.1
Hang Seng 31,339 -74 -0.2
Commodities Last
Close +/- %
Brent Oil 70 0.4 0.6
CPO Malay 2,556 21.0 0.8
Coal Newc 105 0.9 0.9
Nickel 12,821 130.0 1.0
Tin 20,330 28.0 0.1
Changes Changes
Changes
Changes Lagging Movers
Market Value
Changes Leading Movers
Market Activity Tuesday, 16 Jan 2018 Market Index Index Movement Market Volume
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BJTM: Laba bersih FY17 meningkat
BJTM mencatatkan kenaikan laba bersih FY17 sebesar 12,8%yoy menjadi Rp 1,15 triliun (inline atau 96% dari konsensus FY17). Kredit tumbuh 7,0% menjadi Rp 31,7 triliun. DPK tumbuh 21,5%
menjadi Rp 39,8 triliun.
Perseroan membukukan perbaikan pada cost of fund seiring beban bunga yang turun. BOPO juga membaik dari 72,2% pada 2016 menjadi 68,6%. NPL gross turun dari 4,8% menjadi 4,6%.
Di tahun ini, kredit dan laba bersih ditargetkan naik masing-masing 7,5 – 9%. (Investor Daily).
BJTM: Non-Coverage, 18E’ consensus PE: 8.2x, PBV: 1.3x.
Sektor batubara: Kontrak Batu Bara Stabil
Berdasarkan data Adminis trasi Umum Bea Cukai China, impor batu bara China mencapai 22,74 juta ton pada Desember 2017, +3% mom. Kondisi itu didorong oleh pemerintah Beijing yang melonggarkan pembatasan pengiriman melalui beberapa pelabuhan. Sentimen tersebut mendorong proyeksi harga batu bara bergerak di kisaran US$98,50– US$107 per ton sepanjang 2018.(Bisnis Indonesia). Batubara: Neutral.
AISA: Turun Peringkat
PT Pemeringkat Efek Indonesia (Pefindo) kembali menurunkan peringkat utang PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk. (AISA) dari idBBB ke level idBB+ dengan credit watch dan implikasi negatif.
Peringkat idBB+ untuk AISA berlaku sejak 12 Januari 2018 hingga 12 April 2019. Penurunan rating tersebut mencerminkan resiko refinancing perusahaan yang meningkat dan adanya concern mengenai keterlambatan proses negosiasi lini beras AISA, yang berakibat pada keterbatasan alternatif sumber pendanaan AISA secara signifikan. (Bisnis Indonesia). AISA: HOLD;
18E’ PE:3.1x, PBV: 0.3x.
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Stock Rec. JCI Wgt Last price 1D Chg YTD Chg TP Cons TP SSI Upside PE PE PBV PBV ROE ROE
(%) (Rp) (%) (%) (Rp) (Rp) (%) 17E 18E 17E 18E 17E 18E
Banks
BMRI BUY* 5.5 8200 1.2 2.5 7821 7900 -3.7 19.2 15.9 2.2 1.9 11.4% 11.9%
BBCA HOLD 7.9 22475 0.2 2.6 21838 21300 -5.2 24.1 21.4 4.2 3.6 17.6% 17.0%
BBRI BUY* 6.3 3550 0.3 (2.5) 3550 3560 0.3 15.8 13.2 2.6 2.3 16.7% 17.3%
BBNI HOLD 2.5 9500 2.4 (4.0) 8835 8700 -8.4 13.4 11.5 1.8 1.6 13.6% 14.0%
BBTN HOLD 0.6 3640 0.3 2.0 3523 3300 -9.3 13.1 11.0 1.8 1.6 13.7% 14.3%
BNLI BUY 0.3 630 2.4 0.8 818 890 41.3 17.0 17.5 0.8 0.8 4.8% 4.4%
Average 17.1 15.1 2.2 2.0 12.9% 13.2%
Consumer (Staples)
ICBP BUY 1.5 8850 0.0 (0.6) 9438 10200 15.3 26.3 24.3 5.2 4.7 19.9% 19.3%
INDF BUY 1.0 7800 (0.6) 2.3 9445 9900 26.9 15.3 13.9 2.2 2.0 14.2% 14.4%
KLBF BUY 1.1 1680 (0.9) (0.6) 1711 1900 13.1 32.3 28.5 5.9 5.3 18.4% 18.5%
ROTI BUY 0.1 1230 2.5 (3.5) 1386 1590 29.3 32.9 18.6 4.0 3.4 12.2% 18.3%
UNVR HOLD 6.0 54600 0.6 (2.3) 50872 49900 -8.6 58.8 53.6 77.2 68.5 131.3% 127.7%
SIDO BUY* 0.1 570 0.0 4.6 542 550 -3.5 17.4 16.6 3.0 2.8 17.1% 17.1%
AISA HOLD 0.0 476 0.0 0.0 867 900 89.1 3.6 3.1 0.4 0.3 9.7% 10.1%
Average 26.7 22.7 14.0 12.4 31.8% 32.2%
Cigarette
HMSP BUY* 8.2 4850 (1.4) 2.5 4199 4390 -9.5 43.6 42.2 15.0 13.6 34.3% 32.4%
GGRM BUY 2.3 82000 (1.3) (2.1) 85456 83700 2.1 22.5 21.1 3.5 3.1 15.6% 14.8%
Average 33.1 31.6 9.2 8.4 25.0% 23.6%
Healthcare
MIKA BUY 0.4 1800 0.0 (0.6) 2308 2950 63.9 33.6 30.4 6.5 5.9 19.4% 19.4%
SILO HOLD 0.2 8975 0.0 (6.3) 11440 10700 19.2 111.0 90.7 3.6 3.4 3.3% 3.7%
Average 72.3 60.6 5.1 4.6 11.3% 11.6%
Poultry
CPIN HOLD 0.8 3220 0.3 7.3 3164 3380 5.0 18.4 13.9 3.2 2.8 17.6% 20.0%
JPFA BUY 0.2 1405 3.3 8.1 1649 1600 13.9 12.1 11.4 1.6 1.4 13.0% 12.4%
MAIN BUY 0.0 695 0.0 (6.1) 959 1200 72.7 4.1 3.3 0.6 0.5 14.6% 16.2%
Average 11.5 9.5 1.8 1.6 15.1% 16.2%
Retail
MAPI BUY 0.2 6625 0.0 6.9 8102 7900 19.2 29.8 21.8 3.0 2.7 10.2% 12.4%
RALS BUY 0.1 1300 7.0 8.3 1233 1250 -3.8 21.9 19.0 2.4 2.3 11.1% 12.0%
ACES BUY 0.3 1300 0.8 12.6 1358 1600 23.1 29.6 25.0 6.6 5.6 22.4% 22.4%
LPPF BUY 0.5 10800 1.6 8.0 12535 11500 6.5 14.4 14.0 9.3 7.0 64.5% 49.8%
Average 23.9 20.0 5.3 4.4 27.1% 24.1%
Media
MNCN BUY 0.3 1425 5.6 10.9 1832 2000 40.4 10.5 9.4 2.0 1.8 19.3% 19.3%
SCMA HOLD 0.5 2420 2.1 (2.4) 2516 2300 -5.0 18.5 16.8 8.0 6.6 43.2% 39.0%
Average 14.5 13.1 5.0 4.2 31.3% 29.2%
Telco
EXCL BUY* 0.5 3180 (0.6) 7.4 3982 3200 0.6 99.4 42.4 1.6 1.5 1.6% 3.6%
ISAT BUY 0.5 5775 (3.8) 20.3 7477 8200 42.0 17.4 11.7 2.1 1.9 12.4% 16.3%
TLKM BUY 6.0 4120 (0.2) (7.2) 4745 5000 21.4 17.6 15.5 4.4 4.0 25.1% 25.9%
TOWR BUY 0.6 3880 (2.5) (3.0) 4839 4500 16.0 14.8 13.4 3.1 2.7 20.9% 20.2%
Average 37.3 20.8 2.8 2.5 15.0% 16.5%
Auto and HE
ASII BUY 4.8 8175 0.0 (1.5) 8999 9400 15.0 14.2 12.6 2.6 2.1 18.6% 16.6%
UNTR BUY 2.0 37175 0.4 5.0 38216 41500 11.6 19.9 19.7 3.1 2.8 15.5% 14.2%
Average 17.1 16.1 2.9 2.4 17.1% 15.4%
Aviation
GIAA HOLD 0.1 302 0.0 0.7 350 350 15.9 226.8 221.2 0.6 0.6 0.3% 0.3%
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Property
BSDE BUY 0.5 1700 0.9 0.0 2198 2350 38.2 15.2 13.1 1.3 1.1 8.7% 8.6%
PWON BUY 0.5 695 (1.4) 1.5 740 767 10.4 16.9 14.3 3.2 2.7 19.2% 19.1%
ASRI BUY 0.1 378 0.0 6.2 420 448 18.5 14.1 13.3 0.9 0.9 6.7% 6.7%
SMRA HOLD 0.2 1015 (0.5) 7.4 1148 1110 9.4 45.2 43.2 1.3 1.5 2.8% 3.4%
SSIA HOLD 0.0 505 0.0 (1.9) 731 626 24.0 32.7 30.4 0.8 0.8 2.4% 2.6%
CTRA BUY 0.3 1160 0.9 0.0 1416 1580 36.2 17.2 15.8 1.5 1.4 8.7% 9.2%
DMAS BUY 0.1 164 0.0 (4.1) 259 228 39.0 9.3 7.5 0.9 0.8 9.7% 10.8%
KIJA BUY 0.1 286 0.0 0.0 384 450 57.3 12.4 11.2 1.0 0.9 7.8% 7.9%
Average 20.4 18.6 1.4 1.3 8.3% 8.5%
Construction
PTPP BUY 0.3 2980 0.7 12.9 4045 4150 39.3 13.2 11.2 1.6 1.4 11.8% 12.6%
ADHI BUY 0.1 2120 4.4 12.5 2563 2550 20.3 22.1 16.3 1.3 1.3 6.1% 7.9%
WSKT BUY 0.5 2600 1.6 17.6 2902 3250 25.0 15.6 12.3 1.7 1.7 11.2% 13.6%
WIKA BUY 0.2 1825 2.5 17.7 2420 3000 64.4 14.7 12.9 1.2 1.1 8.0% 8.3%
Average 16.4 13.2 1.5 1.4 9.3% 10.6%
Cement
INTP SELL 1.2 22200 (2.2) 1.1 17943 13500 -39.2 39.6 29.8 3.1 2.9 7.7% 9.6%
SMGR HOLD 0.9 10525 (0.5) 6.3 10834 9000 -14.5 21.7 17.6 2.0 1.9 9.4% 10.7%
SMCB SELL 0.1 825 0.0 (1.2) 677 700 -15.2 -10.9 -11.3 0.8 0.9 -7.8% -7.7%
SMBR HOLD 0.5 3150 0.6 (17.1) 598 2300 -27.0 175.0 175.0 9.4 9.1 5.4% 5.2%
Average 56.4 52.8 3.8 3.7 3.7% 4.4%
Precast
WSBP BUY 0.2 452 1.4 5.9 630 500 10.6 11.6 9.0 1.4 1.2 12.3% 13.6%
WTON BUY 0.1 550 1.9 10.0 800 750 36.4 14.5 13.8 2.1 1.9 14.6% 14.0%
Average 13.0 11.4 1.8 1.6 13.4% 13.8%
Oil and Gas
PGAS BUY 0.6 1765 (0.8) 0.9 2027 2200 24.6 16.0 12.0 0.9 0.9 5.9% 7.5%
AKRA BUY 0.4 6325 0.80 -0.4 7730 8500 34.4 15.5 18.4 3.1 2.8 20.0% 15.2%
TPIA HOLD 1.4 5500 -0.5 -8.3 5392 5800 5.5 24.4 22.4 4.2 3.8 17.1% 16.8%
BRPT BUY 0.4 2200 4.3 -2.7 2413 2600 18.2 16.7 15.1 1.3 1.1 8.0% 7.6%
MEDC BUY 0.3 1140 4.1 28.1 1165 1500 31.6 8.6 7.9 1.3 1.1 14.7% 13.8%
Average 16.3 15.2 2.2 1.9 13.1% 12.2%
Utilities
JSMR BUY 0.7 6250 0.4 (2.3) 7013 7500 20.0 22.1 18.8 3.0 2.7 13.6% 14.3%
Metal
ANTM BUY 0.2 660 (0.8) 5.6 849 840 27.3 -660.0 66.0 0.9 1.0 -0.1% 1.5%
INCO BUY 0.5 3220 1.3 11.4 3435 3800 18.0 -1533.3 39.2 1.3 1.3 -0.1% 3.3%
TINS BUY 0.1 865 (2.3) 11.6 1171 1200 38.7 13.5 11.5 1.1 1.1 8.4% 9.4%
Average -726.6 38.9 1.1 1.1 2.7% 4.7%
Coal
DOID BUY 0.1 900.0 0.6 25.9 1386.7 1450 61.1 13.4 6.3 3.7 2.3 27.8% 36.7%
ITMG BUY 0.4 24850 4.6 20.0 24898 24500 -1.4 8.9 9.0 2.0 1.9 22.1% 20.8%
ADRO BUY 1.0 2230 0.0 19.9 2366 2400 7.6 11.3 11.0 1.3 1.2 11.3% 10.8%
PTBA BUY 0.5 3030 4.8 23.2 2950 3150 4.0 15.9 9.1 0.5 0.5 3.4% 5.2%
Average 12.4 8.9 1.9 1.5 16.1% 18.4%
Plantation
AALI BUY 0.4 13300 (0.2) 1.1 16703 17800 33.8 10.4 9.6 1.5 1.3 14.1% 13.8%
LSIP BUY 0.1 1355 (2.5) (4.6) 1739 1950 43.9 12.2 11.3 1.1 1.1 9.2% 9.3%
SIMP HOLD 0.1 492 (1.6) 6.0 530 550 11.8 11.4 10.0 0.5 0.5 4.6% 5.0%
Average 11.3 10.3 1.0 1.0 9.3% 9.4%
Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg
Note: GIAA, PGAS, ITMG, ADRO, MEDC, BRPT, INCO, DOID, TPIA report in USD.
Note: *) Under Review
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Regional Indices 1D Change
Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low
World 8.63 2,194 0.40 1.02 1.49 5.20 8.08 4.30 23.00 2,195 1,775
U.S. (S&P) 18.68 2,786 0.67 1.27 1.57 4.13 9.13 4.21 22.49 2,788 2,257
U.S. (DOW) 228.46 25,803 0.89 1.64 2.01 4.67 12.82 4.39 29.76 25,810 19,678
Europe (0.80) 3,612 (0.02) 0.05 (0.13) 1.44 0.15 3.08 9.63 3,709 3,214
Emerging Market 2.47 1,211 0.20 1.10 0.31 8.24 6.96 4.50 36.16 1,215 888
FTSE 100 (9.50) 7,769 (0.12) 0.27 0.94 3.72 3.22 1.06 n/a 7,793 7,094
CAC 40 (7.37) 5,510 (0.13) 0.09 0.41 3.00 2.74 3.71 12.85 5,536 4,734
Dax (44.52) 13,201 (0.34) (0.61) (1.25) 0.74 1.51 2.19 14.24 13,526 11,425
Indonesia 12.13 6,382 0.19 0.17 (0.05) 4.29 7.27 0.42 21.10 6,446 5,228
Japan 23.14 23,738 0.10 0.12 (0.47) 5.25 11.68 4.27 24.31 23,953 18,225
Australia (32.18) 6,045 (0.53) (0.37) (1.48) 0.80 3.39 (0.33) 5.16 6,150 5,583
Korea (2.71) 2,501 (0.11) 0.53 (0.37) 0.76 0.85 1.36 21.16 2,562 2,052
Singapore 15.85 3,536 0.45 0.45 0.69 3.50 6.42 3.92 17.37 3,539 2,988
Malaysia 3.24 1,826 0.18 0.16 (0.34) 4.16 4.08 1.62 10.07 1,840 1,658
Hong Kong (73.67) 31,339 (0.23) 0.85 1.42 8.63 9.22 4.75 37.95 31,733 22,657
China (18.45) 3,410 (0.54) (0.33) 0.03 4.42 0.95 3.12 9.89 3,450 3,017
Taiwan 72.35 10,956 0.66 1.16 0.37 4.43 1.69 2.95 17.91 10,963 9,281
Thailand 12.47 1,823 0.69 1.55 1.66 6.11 5.56 3.93 15.96 1,831 1,529
Philipines 43.10 8,858 0.49 (0.70) 1.29 6.25 4.85 3.50 22.37 8,927 7,123
Monetary Indicators 1D Change
Points 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low
JIBOR Overnight (%) 0.00 3.90 0.00 (3.26) 2.01 0.04 (6.54) 4.96 3.89
Foreign Reserve (US$bn) n/a 130.20 n/a 3.36 0.61 11.89 11.89 130.20 116.89
Inflation Rate (%) n/a 0.71 n/a 255.00 446.15 69.05 69.05 0.97 (0.07)
US Fed Rate (%) 0.00 1.50 0.00 0.00 20.00 0.00 100.00 1.50 0.75
Indo Govt Bond Yld (10yr) - % (0.00) 6.20 0.32 (4.50) (5.44) (1.87) (17.58) 7.66 6.12
Exchange Rate (per US$) 1D Change
Currency Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low
Indonesia (19.00) 13335 0.14 0.76 0.69 1.83 1.75 1.75 0.25 13,645 13,145
Japan 0.26 110.80 (0.23) 0.42 1.67 1.58 1.71 1.71 3.07 115.62 107.32
UK 0.00 1.38 0.04 1.91 1.90 3.09 2.10 2.10 14.53 1.38 1.20
Euro 0.00 1.23 0.01 1.94 2.75 4.10 2.17 2.17 15.70 1.23 1.05
China (0.03) 6.44 0.50 1.10 0.97 2.68 1.08 1.08 7.20 6.92 6.40
Commodities Indicators 1D Change
Spot Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low
Oil 0.37 64.67 0.58 1.73 4.76 12.86 24.68 7.03 23.49 64.89 42.05
CPO 21.00 2,556.00 0.83 (2.14) (2.14) 0.20 (7.29) 2.12 (17.09) 3,175.00 2,390.00
Rubber 4.50 745.00 0.61 1.02 1.02 0.68 (7.22) 1.71 (28.19) 1,174.00 732.50
Coal 0.90 104.85 0.87 0.14 (0.57) 3.76 9.28 3.15 26.40 105.50 71.25
Iron Ore (0.90) 74.04 (1.20) (0.82) 1.20 10.59 20.98 4.61 (7.78) 94.91 54.24
Tin 28.00 20,330.00 0.14 1.18 1.55 6.03 (1.95) 1.16 (3.90) 21,245.00 18,750.00
Nickel 135.00 12,860.00 1.06 (0.58) 2.59 11.05 9.73 0.78 23.06 13,200.00 8,680.00
Copper 100.00 7,210.00 1.41 0.80 1.19 4.71 4.77 (0.51) 22.02 7,312.50 5,462.50
Gold 6.60 1,341.50 0.49 1.68 1.60 6.82 3.10 2.69 12.15 1,358.50 1,179.70
Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg
Last Price
Last Price Change (%) 1 Year
Change (%) 1 Year
Last Price
Last Price Change (%) 1 Year
Change (%) 1 Year
DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The v iews expressed in this research accurately ref lect the personal views of the analyst(s) about th e subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or v iews in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve an d maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is f or information only and f or the use of the recipient. It is not to be reprod uced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable f or all investors. Moreover, although the inf ormation contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserv ed by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
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Research Team
Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research, Strategy,
Banking, Consumer [email protected] +6221 2854 8148
Ahmad Mikail Economist [email protected] +6221 2854 8396
Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst [email protected] +6221 2854 8382 Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction
Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property [email protected] +6221 2854 8144 Arandi Ariantara Cement, Telecommunication, Toll Road,
Oil and Gas [email protected] +6221 2854 8392
Marlene Tanumihardja Poultry, Retail, Small Caps [email protected] +6221 2854 8387
Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Mining, Plantation [email protected] +6221 2854 8339
Nadya Swastika Research Associate [email protected] +6221 2854 8338
Private Wealth Management
Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8380 Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor [email protected] +6221 2854 8129 Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8399 Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8395 Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8325
Equity Sales Team
Kelvin Long Head of Equities [email protected] +6221 2854 8150
Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8146
Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8173
Online Trading Sales Team
Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading [email protected] +6221 2854 8372
Wahyu Widodo Marketing [email protected] +6221 2854 8371
Aben Epapras Marketing [email protected] +6221 2854 8389
