Lampiran 4. Tabel D
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test
(If calculated ratio is greater than value shown, then reject the null hypothesis at the
chosen level of confidence.)
SAMPLE
Trend Analysis for NILAI
Data NILAI Length 36 NMissing 0
Fitted Trend Equation
Yt = 314541 - 534,692*t
Accuracy Measures
MAPE 10 MAD 28725 MSE 1064231186
Forecasts
Period Forecast 37 294757 A ccuracy Measures
A ctual Fits Forecasts Variable
Trend Analysis Plot for NILAI
Linear Trend ModelTrend Analysis for NILAI
Data NILAI Length 36 NMissing 0
Fitted Trend Equation
Yt = 323496 - 1949*t + 38,2*t**2
Accuracy Measures
MAPE 10 MAD 28763 MSE 1050655176
Forecasts
Period Forecast 37 303712 A ccuracy Measures
A ctual Fits Forecasts Variable
Time Series Decomposition for NILAI
Additive Model
Data NILAI Length 36 NMissing 0
Fitted Trend Equation
Yt = 314438 - 529,141*t
Seasonal Indices
Period Index
Accuracy Measures
MAPE 4 A ccuracy Measures
Forecasts
Period Forecast 37 292099
Time Series Decomposition for NILAI
Multiplicative Model
Data NILAI Length 36 NMissing 0
Fitted Trend Equation
Yt = 315191 - 556,659*t
Seasonal Indices
Period Index A ccuracy Measures
4 0,88299
Accuracy Measures
MAPE 4 MAD 12003 MSE 325280227
Forecasts
Period Forecast 37 291801
Moving Average for NILAI
Data NILAI A ccuracy Measures
A ctual Fits Forecasts 95,0% PI Variable
Length 36 NMissing 0
Moving Average
Length 12
Accuracy Measures
MAPE 10
Single Exponential Smoothing for NILAI
45
A lpha 0,0401788 Smoothing C onstant
MA PE 10
MA D 29356
MSD 1140365919 A ccuracy Measures
A ctual Fits Forecasts 95,0% PI Variable
Data NILAI Length 36
Smoothing Constant
Alpha 0,0401788
Accuracy Measures
MAPE 10
Double Exponential Smoothing for NILAI
Data NILAI
A lpha (lev el) 0,425018 Gamma (trend) 0,075163
Smoothing C onstants
MA PE 11
MA D 31726
MSD 1588100761 A ccuracy Measures
A ctual Fits Forecasts 95,0% PI Variable
Smoothing Constants
Alpha (level) 0,425018 Gamma (trend) 0,075163
Accuracy Measures
MAPE 11
Winters' Method for NILAI
Multiplicative Method
45 Gamma (trend) 0,2 Delta (seasonal) 0,2 Smoothing C onstants
MA PE 5
MA D 15788
MSD 367019059 A ccuracy Measures
A ctual Fits Forecasts 95,0% PI Variable
Length 36
Smoothing Constants
Alpha (level) 0,2 Gamma (trend) 0,2 Delta (seasonal) 0,2
Accuracy Measures
MAPE 5 MAD 15788 MSE 367019059
Forecasts
