Hasil peramalan yang terbaik adalah hasil dengan nilai MAD (Mean. Absolute Deviation) terekecil. Karena dengan MAD terkecil maka deviasi (error)

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LAMPIRAN 1: PERAMALAN

Hasil peramalan yang terbaik adalah hasil dengan nilai MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) terekecil. Karena dengan MAD terkecil maka deviasi (error)

dalam peramalan semakin kecil. Berikut adalah hasil pengolahan data dengan menggunakan software minitab :

Double Exponential Smoothing

Data C1 Length 48.0000 NMissing 0

Smoothing Constants Alpha (level): 0.728241 Gamma (trend): 0.133068 Accuracy Measures

MAPE: 15.5 MAD: 111.4 MSD: 17350.7

Winters' multiplicative model

Smoothing Constants Alpha (level): 0.2 Gamma (trend): 0.2 Delta (seasonal): 0.2 Accuracy Measures MAPE: 14.3 MAD: 152.5 MSD: 46011.0

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Time Series Decomposition

Trend Line Equation Yt = 172.909 + 123.591*t

Seasonal Indices Period Index 1 1.01718 2 0.982822

Accuracy of Model MAPE: 11.37 MAD: 82.66 MSD: 9234.89

Berdasarkan hasil peramalan yang terbaik dengan MAD terkecil adalah dengan menggunakan metode Time Series Decompotition.

Berikut adalah hasil peramalan demand yang tak terpenuhi untuk 12

periode yang akan datang dengan menggunakan Time Series

Decompotition :

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Tabel 4.7

Hasil Peramalan demand tak terpenuhi untuk sepatu bayi

Forecasts

Row Period Forecast 1 49 1810.16 2 50 1870.49 3 51 2061.59 4 52 2113.42 5 53 2313.02 6 54 2356.36 7 55 2564.45 8 56 2599.30 9 57 2815.87 10 58 2842.23 11 59 3067.30 12 60 3085.17

Tabel 4.8

Hasil peramalan demand tak terpenuhi untuk topi bayi

Forecasts

Row Period Forecast 1 49 804.75 2 50 884.97 3 51 860.34 4 52 944.06 5 53 915.92 6 54 1003.14 7 55 971.51 8 56 1062.23 9 57 1027.10 10 58 1121.31 11 59 1082.68 12 60 1180.40

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LAMPIRAN 2 : OPERATING PROCESS CHART

O-1

I -1

O-2

I-2 O-3

O-4

I-3

O-5

S

Cutting

Inspeksi awal

Jahit

Obras

QC

Asesoris

QC akhir

Packing

Gudang Raw Material

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LAMPIRAN 3: STRUKTUR ORGANISASI PERUSAHAAN

Owner Perush

Keuangan Quality Control PPIC

Administratif Keuangan Produksi

Unit Leader

Inspeksi Material

Inspeksi Proses

Inspeksi Akhir

Pengendalian Persediaan

Gudang Bahan Baku Marketing

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LAMPIRAN 4 : LAY OUT PERUSAHAAN

Pos Satpam

WC

Ruang Tamu

Kantor Staff

WC

Gudang Bahan Baku

Gudang Barang Jadi

kantin

Gudang Asesoris Ruang Mesin Kantor Pimpinan

WC WC WC WC

Locker WC WC WC WC

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LAMPIRAN 5: DEPRESIASI DAN MAINTENANCE COST

MESIN UNIT

HARGA (Rp)

USIA PAKAI (tahun)

NILAI SISA (Rp)

DEPRESIASI STRAIGHT LINE (Rp)

MAINTENANCE COST (1%)

(Rp)

Cutting 8 10000000 20 1000000 3600000 80000

Betaking 37 7250000 20 725000 12071250 268250

High Speed 109 3000000 20 300000 14715000 327000

psg. Karet 8 1000000 20 100000 360000 8000

TOTAL 2.125.000 30.746.250 683.250

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LAMPIRAN 5: PENJUALAN DAN BEBAN PENJUALAN

TAHUN 2003

Item

Kuantitas

(Doz) Harga/doz Total (Rp) Sepatu

Bayi 32.449 90.000 2.920.410.000 Topi Bayi 13.045 90.000 1.174.050.000

total 45.494 4.094.460.000

TAHUN 2004

Item

Kuantitas

Bayi 35.694 99.000 3.533.696.100 Topi Bayi 14.350 99.000 1.420.600.500

total 50.043 4.954.296.600

Item Biaya (Rp) Prosentase Total (Rp)

Transportasi (via expedisi) 125 30% 1.706.025

Transportasi (truk perusahaan) 75 40% 1.364.820

Transportasi (mobil boks

perusahaan) 85 30% 1.160.097

Sales Jumlah Biaya/orang/bulan

Sales Person 10 1.000.000 120000000

Total 124.230.942

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LAMPIRAN 6: CASH FLOW PERUSAHAAN TAHUN 2003-2009

Pre-Operating Period 2003 2.004 2.005 2.006 2.007 2008 2.009

ESTIMATED CASH FLOW

Owner's Investment 5.825.159.317

Loan 0

Sales 3.971.626.200 4.904.753.634 5.934.751.897 7.181.049.796 8.689.070.253 10.212.052.782 12.412.422.109

Total Estimated Receipt 5.825.159.317 3.971.626.200 4.904.753.634 5.934.751.897 7.181.049.796 8.689.070.253 10.212.052.782 12.412.422.109

ESTIMATED DISBURSEMENT

Purchase of Land 268.125.000

Punrchase of machinary 683.250.000

Contruction of Building 1.012.875.000 Purchase of Office equipment 14.000.000 Purchase of Prod. Equipment 50.100.000 Purchase of Tools & S.Part 143.250.000

Payment for Instalation 25.250.000

Purchase of Transportation 595.500.000

Purchase of Raw Material 1.203.865.000 1.324.251.500 1.456.676.650 1.602.344.315 1.762.578.747 1.938.836.621 2.132.720.283 Payment for Direct Labor 1.470.960.000 1.618.056.000 1.779.861.600 1.957.847.760 2.153.632.536 2.368.995.790 2.605.895.369 Payment for Manufacturing Ovh 789.224.107 868.146.517 954.961.169 1.050.457.286 1.155.503.015 1.271.053.316 1.398.158.648 Payment for Operating Expenses 333.012.842 366.314.126 402.945.539 443.240.093 487.564.102 536.320.512 589.952.563

Total Estimated Disbursement 2.792.350.000 3.797.061.949 4.176.768.144 4.594.444.958 5.053.889.454 5.559.278.399 6.115.206.239 6.726.726.863 Net Inflow 3.032.809.317 174.564.251 727.985.490 1.340.306.939 2.127.160.342 3.129.791.854 4.096.846.543 5.685.695.246 Plus: cash balancing beginning 0 3.032.809.317 3.207.373.568 3.935.359.058 5.275.665.997 7.402.826.340 10.532.618.194 14.629.464.737 Cash balance ending 3.032.809.317 3.207.373.568 3.935.359.058 5.275.665.997 7.402.826.340 10.532.618.194 14.629.464.737 20.315.159.983

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LAMPIRAN 7 : ANALISA SENSITIVITAS PERUSAHAAN

Prosentase 2003 Prosentase 2004

Penjualan

Penjualan (Rp)

Pengeluaran

(Rp) Penjualan Penjualan (Rp)

Pengeluaran (Rp)

100% 3.971.626.200 3.540.861.949 100% 4.904.753.634 3.894.948.144 90% 3.574.463.580 3.387.174.165 90% 4.414.278.271 3.725.891.581 80% 3.177.300.960 3.233.486.381 80% 3.923.802.907 3.556.835.019 70% 2.780.138.340 3.079.798.596 70% 3.433.327.544 3.387.778.456 60% 2.382.975.720 2.883.984.108 60% 2.942.852.180 3.218.721.894 50% 1.985.813.100 2.772.423.028 50% 2.452.376.817 3.049.665.331 40% 1.588.650.480 2.618.735.244 40% 1.961.901.454 2.880.608.768 30% 1.191.487.860 2.465.047.460 30% 1.471.426.090 2.711.552.206 20% 794.325.240 2.311.359.675 20% 980.950.727 2.542.495.643 10% 397.162.620 2.157.671.891 10% 490.475.363 2.373.439.081

Prosentase 2005 Prosentase 2006

Penjualan

Penjualan (Rp)

Pengeluaran

(Rp) Penjualan Penjualan (Rp)

Pengeluaran (Rp)

100% 5.934.751.897 4.284.442.958 100% 7.181.049.796 4.712.887.254 90% 5.341.276.707 4.098.480.739 90% 6.462.944.816 4.508.328.813 80% 4.747.801.518 3.912.518.520 80% 5.744.839.837 4.303.770.372 70% 4.154.326.328 3.726.556.301 70% 5.026.734.857 3.099.211.932 60% 3.560.851.138 3.540.594.082 60% 4.308.629.878 3.894.653.491 50% 2.967.375.949 3.354.631.864 50% 3.590.524.898 3.690.095.050 40% 2.373.900.759 3.168.669.645 40% 2.872.419.918 3.485.536.609 30% 1.780.425.569 2.982.707.426 30% 2.154.314.939 3.280.978.168 20% 1.186.950.379 2.796.745.207 20% 1.436.209.959 3.076.419.728 10% 593.475.190 2.610.782.988 10% 718.104.980 2.871.861.287 Prosentase 2007

Penjualan

Penjualan (Rp)

Pengeluaran (Rp)

100% 8.689.070.253 5.184.175.980 90% 7.820.163.228 4.959.161.694 80% 6.951.256.202 4.734.147.409 70% 6.082.349.177 4.509.133.125 60% 5.213.442.152 4.284.118.840 50% 4.344.535.127 4.059.104.555 40% 3.475.628.101 3.834.090.270 30% 2.606.721.076 3.609.075.985 20% 1.737.814.051 3.384.061.701 10% 868.907.025 3.159.047.416

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perusahaan) 95 30% 1.426.237

Sales Person 10 1.100.000 132000000

Total 137.154.470

TAHUN 2005

Item

Kuantitas

Bayi 39.263 108.900 4.275.772.281 Topi Bayi 15.784 108.900 1.718.926.605

Total 55.048 5.994.698.886

perusahaan) 100 30% 1.651.432

Sales Person 10 1.200.000 144000000

Total 150.137.823

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TAHUN 2006

Item

Kuantitas

Bayi 43.190 119.790 5.173.684.460 Topi Bayi 17.363 119.790 2.079.901.192

total 60.553 7.253.585.652

Item

Biaya

(Rp) Prosentase Total (Rp)

Transportasi (truk perusahaan) 100 40% 2.422.101 Transportasi (mobil boks

perusahaan) 110 30% 1.998.233

Sales Person 10 1.300.000 156000000

Total 163.236.025

TAHUN 2007

Item

Kuantitas

Bayi 47.509 131.769 6.260.158.197 Topi Bayi 19.099 131.769 2.516.680.442

total 66.608 8.776.838.639

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Item

Biaya

(Rp) Prosentase Total (Rp)

Transportasi (truk perusahaan) 110 40% 2.930.742 Transportasi (mobil boks

perusahaan) 120 30% 2.397.880

Sales Person 10 1.400.000 168000000

Total 176.625.706