Market
Perspective
Wealth Management Newsletter - Oktober 2021
Kekhawatiran adanya risiko gagal bayar dari pengembang properti besar China Evergrande dan adanya potensi efek limpahan ke negara lain.
Concerns about the risk of default from major property developer China Evergrande and the potential spillover effect on other countries.
"Best Wealth Manager Experience, Digital Initiatives", The Asset Triple A Private Capital Awards 2021
Nasabah yang terhormat,
Sepanjang kuartal ketiga tahun ini cukup banyak kabar negatif yang datang dari China. Pertama, pengetatan kebijakan pemerintah China pada sektor pendidikan yang tidak memperbolehkan bisnis les privat untuk mengambil keuntungan membuat khawatir investor dan mempertanyakan apakah pemerintah China akan melakukan hal yang serupa pada sektor yang lain. Selain itu, pemerintah juga melarang anak-anak untuk bermain game computer lebih dari tiga jam per minggu. Investor juga harus menghadapi kekhawatiran adanya risiko gagal bayar dari pengembang properti besar China Evergrande dan adanya potensi efek limpahan ke negara lain.
Dalam edisi kali ini, kami mencoba memberikan gambaran bagaimana Evergrande dapat terperosok ke dalam lilitan hutang yang sangat besar serta perjalanan perusahaan untuk berusaha mencari likuiditas guna memenuhi rasio keuangan yang ditetapkan pemerintah serta membayar kewajiban ke depannya.
Jika Anda membutuhkan informasi lebih lanjut mengenai strategi dan rekomendasi produk-produk investasi, Anda dapat menghubungi Relationship Manager Kami di cabang terdekat.
Dear Valued Customers,
Throughout the third quarter of this year quite a lot of negative news came from China. First, the Chinese government's tightening of policies in the education sector that does not allow private tutoring businesses to take advantage has worried investors and questioned whether the Chinese government would do the same in other sectors. In addition, the government also prohibits children from playing computer games for more than three hours per week.
Investors will also have to face concerns about the risk of default from major property developer China Evergrande and the potential spillover effect on other countries.
In this edition, we try to illustrate how Evergrande could fall into a huge debt bondage and the company's journey to have enough liquidity to meet the financial ratios set down by the government and pay its liabilities in the future.
If you need further information regarding investment strategies and product recommendations, please contact our Relationship Manager at you nearest branch.
GREETINGS
Ivan Jaya
Chief of Retail & SME Business
Kuartal ketiga tahun ini didominasi kabar negatif dari China antara lain pengetatan kebijakan sektor pendidikan, pelarangan anak-anak bermain game computer lebih dari tiga jam per minggu, dan risiko gagal bayar dari pengembang properti besar Evergrande.
The 3rd quarter of this year is dominated by news negative from China, among others sector policy tightening education, ban children play computer games more than three hours per week, and the risk of failing pay for the debt from big property developer Evergrande
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SUMMARY
Market Review
Pada bulan Agustus, penambahan pekerjaan pada ekonomi Amerika Serikat hanya bertambah 235 ribu jauh di bawah perkiraan dan merupakan kenaikan pekerjaan terkecil dalam tujuh bulan.
Menteri Keuangan Amerika Serikat memperingatkan bahwa Amerika Serikat berisiko kehabisan uang tunai pada bulan Oktober kecuali Kongres meningkatkan batas pinjaman.
Developer properti besar China, Evergrande Group kesulitan untuk membayar bunga obligasi yang telah jatuh tempo.
Pemerintah menurunkan tarif pajak penghasilan (PPh) atas bunga obligasi yang diperoleh investor domestik sebesar 10%, dari sebelumnya 15%.
Pemerintah kembali memberikan kelonggaran Pemberlakuan Pembatasan Kegiatan Masyarakat (PPKM) di sektor hiburan dan wisata seperti pembukaan bioskop dengan kapasitas maksimal 50 persen untuk wilayah dengan status PPKM level 3 dan 2.
In August, U.S economy added only 235 thousand jobs, well below forecasts and the smallest job addition in seven months.
The U.S Treasury Secretary warned that the United States risks is running out of cash in October unless the Congress increases the debt ceiling.
China's major property developer, Evergrande Group, is struggling to pay interest on its bonds.
The government decreased the rate of income tax (PPh) on bond interest earned by domestic investors by 10%, from the previous 15%.
The government has again relaxed the Implementation of Restrictions for Community Activities (PPKM) in the entertainment and tourism sectors, such as opening the cinemas with a maximum capacity of 50 percent for areas with PPKM level 3 and 2 statuses.
Market Outlook
Pasar mengantisipasi keputusan The Fed untuk mulai mengurangi program pembelian aset pada akhir tahun ini.
Penambahan jumlah vaksinasi dan penurunan kasus aktif di Indonesia membuka peluang pelonggaran kebijakan yang lebih luas.
Kekhawatiran risiko default dari pengembang properti China Evergrande dapat mempengaruhi ekonomi di China dan memberikan sentimen negatif di pasar.
Markets are anticipating The Fed's decision to begin easing its asset purchase program later this year.
An increase in the number of vaccinations and a decrease active cases in Indonesia opens up opportunities for wider policy relaxation.
Concerns about the risk of default from property developer China Evergrande could affect the economy in China and provide negative sentiment in the market.
• Pasar Saham Indonesia: Overweight Indonesian stock market
• Pasar Saham Asia Pasifik: Neutral Asia-Pacific stock market
• Pasar Saham Amerika Serikat: Overweight U.S. stock market
• Pasar Obligasi: Neutral Domestic bonds market
Outlook Pasar Keuangan
Global dan Indonesia
Global and Indonesian
Financial Market Outlook
IDR IDR
USD USD
SEPTEMBER IN NUMBER
Harga mid price INDON51 (benchmark obligasi denominasi Dollar AS - 30 tahun)
cenderung terkoreksi INDON51 mid price (benchmark of US Dollar denomination bonds – 30 years)
tends to be corrected
Sumber: Bloomberg
Pasar saham domestik
mencatatkan kinerja positif pada bulan September 2021.
The stock market recorded a positive performance in September 2021.
Dow Jones Islamic Market World Index melemah Dow Jones Islamic Market
World Index weakens
Obligasi Bond Saham
Stock
-5,45% -4,91%
IHSG menguat JCI strengthens
Harga mid price FR083 (benchmark obligasi Rupiah - 20 tahun) terkoreksi FR083 mid price (benchmark of rupiah
bonds - 20 years) corrected
VS
+2,22% -1,93%
Perdana Menteri Jepang Yoshihide Suga mengundurkan diri secara tiba-tiba. Partai Liberal Demokrat dan koalisinya memilih mantan Menteri Luar Negeri Fumio Kishida sebagai Perdana Menteri baru.
Sentimen Positif
Pada bulan Agustus, penambahan pekerjaan pada ekonomi Amerika Serikat hanya bertambah 235 ribu jauh di bawah perkiraan dan merupakan kenaikan pekerjaan terkecil dalam tujuh bulan.
Sentimen Negatif
Menteri Keuangan Amerika Serikat memperingatkan bahwa Amerika Serikat berisiko kehabisan uang tunai pada bulan Oktober kecuali Kongres meningkatkan batas pinjaman.
Sentimen Negatif
Bank Sentral Eropa mengatakan akan mengurangi program pembelian obligasi darurat selama pandemic dengan alasan kondisi pembiayaan yang lebih baik dan inflasi yang lebih tinggi.
Sentimen Negatif
Indeks harga konsumen Amerika Serikat bulan Agustus naik 5,3% dari tahun lalu, sedikit lebih rendah dari bulan Juli di level 5,4% yang merupakan level tertinggi sejak 2008.
Sentimen Positif
Developer property besar China, Evergrande Group kesulitan untuk membayar bunga obligasi yang telah jatuh tempo. Pihak berwenang China sudah turun tangan dengan menawarkan restrukturisasi utang, mengumpulkan ahli akuntansi dan hukum untuk memeriksa keuangan perusahaan tersebut.
Sentimen Negatif
MARKET REVIEW SEPTEMBER 2021
Global Review
Japanese Prime Minister, Yoshihide Suga resigns suddenly. The Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition elected former Foreign Minister, Fumio Kishida as the new Prime Minister.
Positive Sentiment
In August, U.S economy added only 235 thousand jobs, well below forecasts and the smallest job gain in seven months.
Negative Sentiment
The US Treasury Secretary warned that the United States risks running out of cash in October unless the Congress increases the debt ceiling.
Negative Sentiment
The European Central Bank said it would scale back its emergency bond-buying program during the pandemic citing better financing conditions and higher inflation.
Negative Sentiment
The US consumer price index in August rose by 5.3% from last year, slightly lower than July at 5.4% which was the highest level since 2008.
Positive Sentiment
China's major property developer, Evergrande Group, is struggling to pay interest on its bonds. Chinese authorities has stepped in by offering debt restructuring, bringing together accounting and legal experts to examine the company's finances.
Negative Sentiment
MARKET REVIEW SEPTEMBER 2021
Domestic Review
Pemerintah menurunkan tarif pajak penghasilan (PPh) atas bunga obligasi yang diperoleh investor domestik sebesar 10%, dari sebelumnya 15%.
Sentimen Positif
Cadangan devisa Indonesia bulan Agustus naik ke level tertinggi sepanjang masa di level USD144,8 miliar karena IMF mengalokasikan hak penarikan khusus tambahan yang setara dengan USD6,31 miliar untuk mendukung ketahanan dan stabilitas ekonomi global akibat dampak pandemi.
Sentimen Positif
Pemerintah kembali memberikan kelonggaran Pemberlakuan Pembatasan Kegiatan Masyarakat (PPKM) di sektor hiburan dan wisata seperti pembukaan bioskop dengan kapasitas maksimal 50 persen untuk wilayah dengan status PPKM level 3 dan 2.
Sentimen Positif
Surplus perdagangan Indonesia di bulan Agustus melebar ke level USD4,7 miliar melampaui perkiraan konsensus di kisaran USD2,3 miliar dan merupakan bulan ke-16 berturut-turut Indonesia mencatat surplus perdagangan.
Sentimen Positif
Pemerintah kembali memperpanjang insentif pajak kendaraan dengan kapasitas hingga 1.500 cc hingga Desember 2021 untuk mendongkrak permintaan mobil dalam negeri hingga mendukung pemulihan ekonomi.
Sentimen Positif
Rapat Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia kembali memutuskan untuk mempertahankan tingkat suku bunga acuan BI 7 Days Reverse Repo Rate di level 3,5% untuk bulan ke-6 berturut-turut.
Netral
The government decreased the rate of income tax (PPh) on bond interest earned by domestic investors by 10%, from the previous 15%.
Positive Sentiment
Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves in August rose to an all-time high of USD144.8 billion as the IMF allocated additional special drawing rights equivalent to USD6.31 billion to support global economic resilience and stability due to the impact of the pandemic.
Positive Sentiment
The government has again relaxed the Implementation of Restrictions for Community Activities (PPKM) in the entertainment and tourism sectors, such as opening the cinemas with a maximum capacity of 50 percent for areas with PPKM level 3 and 2 statuses.
Positive Sentiment
Indonesia's trade surplus in August widened to a level of USD4.7 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of USD2.3 billion and was the 16th consecutive month that Indonesia recorded a trade surplus.
Positive Sentiment
The government has again extended the tax incentive for vehicles with a capacity of up to 1,500 cc until December 2021 to boost demand for domestic cars to support economic recovery.
Positive Sentiment
Bank of Indonesia Board of Governor’s Meetings again decided to maintain the BI 7-days Reverse Repo Rate at 3.5% for the 6th consecutive month.
Neutral
+
China Evergrande telah menjadi berita global karena adanya kekhawatiran atas kondisi likuiditas yang sulit.
China Evergrande adalah perusahaan pengembang properti yang memiliki hutang terbesar di dunia lebih dari $300 miliar yang mencakup sekitar $20 miliar dalam bentuk obligasi berdenominasi dolar Amerika Serikat.
China Evergrande adalah pengembang properti yang berbasis di Shenzen. Evergrande memiliki 1.300 proyek di lebih dari 280 kota di seluruh China dengan memperkerjakan sekitar 200.000 orang dan menciptakan 3,8 juta pekerjaan setiap tahun. Tidak hanya sebagai pengembang property, Evergrande berinvestasi pada taman hiburan, kendaraan listrik, bisnis makanan hingga menjual air minum dalam kemasan.
Bahkan Evergrande telah membeli tim sepak bola pada tahun 2010 yang dikenal dengan Guangzhou Evergrande.
China Evergrande has made global headlines due to concerns over difficult liquidity conditions. China Evergrande is a property developer with the world's largest debt of more than USD300 billion, which includes about USD20 billion in US dollar-denominated bonds.
China Evergrande is a property developer based in Shenzhen. Evergrande has 1,300 projects in more than 280 cities across China employing about 200,000 people and creating 3.8 million jobs every year. Not only as a property developer, Evergrande invests in amusement parks, electric vehicles, food businesses including sell bottled drinking water. Even Evergrande has bought a football team in 2010 known as Guangzhou Evergrande.
Sumber : Bloomberg.
Kerajaan Evergrande
FCB Group
$20 billion
(estimated)
Hengten Networks
$5 billion
$1.2B
Xinjiang Guanghui
Group
$5.6 billion
Shengjing Bank
$7.7 billion China Evergrande New
Energy Vehicle Group
$20.3 billion
Evergrande’s Core Business
$13.3 billion
Evergrande Property Services
Group
$9.6 billion
TECHNOLOGY
REAL EST
ATE
ELECTRIC VEHICLES FINANC E OTHERS
AUTO Majority Owners
Circles are sized by market capitalization Market capitalization unknown Minority Owners
Langfang Development
China Calxon Group
Evergrande Life Insurance
CONSUMER PRODUCTS
Evergrande Spring Evergrande Tourism TOURISM
$0.28B
Perjalanan Evergrande Mencari Dana Evergrande's Journey for Fundraising
Penyebab Evergrande terlibat masalah yaitu regulator China memperketat aturan peminjaman dan pasar properti China mengalami perlambatan.
The cause of Evergrande getting into trouble is that Chinese regulators tightened lending rules and China's property market is experiencing a slowdown.
Sumber : Statista
Ada dua faktor yang membuat Evergrande terlibat masalah seperti saat ini. Pertama, regulator China memperketat aturan dengan menindak kebiasaan meminjam dari pengembang properti. Ini memaksa Evergrande untuk menjual beberapa bisnisnya. Kedua, pasar properti China sedang mengalami perlambatan dan permintaan atas permintaan properti baru berkurang.
Lembaga Nasional untuk Keuangan dan Pembangunan juga menyatakan ledakan pasar properti di China telah menunjukkan tanda-tanda titik balik.
28 Agustus 2020: Regulator China bertemu dengan 12 pengembang properti besar China, termasuk Evergrande untuk memperkenalkan batas tiga rasio utang dalam skema percontohan yang dikenal sebagai “the three red lines”. Evergrande menjual 28% unit manajemen property-nya seharga USD3 miliar dalam kesepakatan pra-IPO.
There are two factors that got Evergrande into the trouble it is today. First, Chinese regulators have tightened regulations by cracking down on borrowing habits from property developers. This forced Evergrande to sell some of its businesses. Second, China's property marke is experiencing a slowdown and the demand for new property is decreasing. The National Institute for Finance and Development also said the boom in China's property market was showing signs of a turning point.
August 28, 2020: Chinese regulators meet with 12 major Chinese property developers, including Evergrande to introduce a three-debt ratio limit in a pilot scheme known as "the three red lines". Evergrande sold 28% of its property management unit for $3 billion in a pre-IPO agreement.
Pasar properti China menunjukkan perlambatan China's property shown a slowdown
12
8
4
0
Aug Dec Apr Aug Dec Apr Aug Dec Apr Jul
2018 2019 2020 2021
10.7
4.6
6 September 2020: Evergrande menawarkan diskon 30% untuk penjualan propertinya guna mendorong penjualan. Evergrande berhasil mengumpulkan dana USD555 juta melalui penjualan saham sekunder di Hong Kong.
25 September 2020: Kekhawatiran tentang Evergrande mulai muncul. Sebuah surat beredar di internet bahwa Evergrande berencana untuk mempercepat backdoor listing anak usahanya Hengda Real Estate di bursa saham Shenzhen pada 31 Januari 2021. Surat tersebut mengatakan bahwa jika gagal untuk tercatat pada tanggal tersebut, beberapa investor strategis terbesar Evergrande memiliki hak untuk meminta uang mereka kembali, sebanyak CNY 130 miliar (USD19 miliar), sama dengan sekitar 92% dari saldo kas perusahaan saat itu.
30 September 2020: Evergrande mencapai kesepakatan bahwa investor strategisnya tidak akan menuntut meminta uang mereka kembali. Ini merupakan awal dari peristiwa berikutnya dan kreditur besar terutama bank mulai mengurangi eksposur ke perusahaan.
“The three red lines” untuk pengembang properti China
"The three red line" for China's property developers
Sumber : Bloomberg, BondEvalue
September 6, 2020: Evergrande offers a 30% discount on the sale of its properties to drive sales. Evergrande raised USD555 million through the sale of a secondary stock in Hong Kong.
September 25, 2020: Concerns about Evergrande began to surface. A letter circulated on the internet that Evergrande planned to accelerate the backdoor listing of its subsidiary Hengda Real Estate on the Shenzhen stock exchange by January 31, 2021. The letter says that if it fails to go public by that date, some of Evergrande's biggest strategic investors have the right to demand their money back, amounting to CNY130 billion (USD19 billion), equal to about 92% of the company's cash balance at that time.
September 30, 2020: Evergrande reached agreement that its strategic investors would not demand their money back. This was the beginning of the next event and major creditors especially banks began to reduce their exposure to the company.
Greenland Global Evergrande CFLD Cayman R&F Properties Far East China South City Champion Sun Hung Kai Wuhan State-Owned LVGEM China Lai Fung Jiayun
Guangzhou Fineland KWG
Aoyuan Modern Land Sunac Yango Yuzhou
Ba1 / BB / BB- B2 / B+ / B
- / - / - B1 / B / B+
- / - / - B2 / B / B Baa1 / - / -
/ A+ / A- - / - / BBB+
- / - / B - / - / B+
B2 / B / B B2 / - / - B1 / B+ / BB-
B1 / B+ / BB B2 / - / B Ba3 / BB / BB
B1 / - / B+
B1 / - / B+
88%
77%
61%
68%
64%
52%
29%
26%
63%
61%
53%
76%
75%
70%
62%
61%
59%
64%
68%
162%
160%
200%
146%
122%
68%
29%
14%
50%
91%
63%
70%
88%
72%
115%
125%
115%
113%
118%
0.6x 0.5x 0.2x 0.4x 0.4x 0.6x 0.5x 0.9x 0.8x 0.5x 0.6x 1.3x 1.2x 1.6x 1.0x 1.1x 1.1x 1.2x 1.2x
9.9 18.4
3.2 4.8 1.1 1.0 4.0 50.6
NA 1.5 0.3 2.3 NA 4.9 2.6 0.3 17.1
3.0 1.7
64.2 76.1 15.2 12.9 0.9 1.7 0.4 12.4
3.2 0.8 0.2 2.8 1.1 4.5 10.2
2.4 34.6 12.3 1.6 Company Issuer Ratings Liabilities/Total Assets NetDebt/Equity
(ex contract liabilities) Cash/Short-term
Debt Market Cap
($bn) Revenues
($bn)
Regulatory Threshold <70% <100% >1.0x January 26, 2021: Evergrande's electric car business unit,
China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle, raised USD3.4 billion from six new investors.
March 29, 2021: Evergrande sold 10% of real estate and automotive marketplace Fangchebao for USD2.1 billion in a pre-IPO agreement.
June 20-28 2021: Evergrande had to pay USD1.47 billion of bonds with a coupon of 6.25% maturing in June 2021 by selling its 29.9% stocks in the Cixon business unit for CNY2.5 billion (USD386 million). In addition Evergrande sold the stoks in its internet unit HengTen Networks Group for USD570 million.
June 23, 2021: Fitch downgraded Evergrande into B from B+
June 30, 2021: Evergrande says that it managed to reduce its debt by 15% since March and 20% since December 2020 to USD88 billion at the end of June and has met the net debt/equity ratio threshold, one of the three red lines ratioes enforced by the Chinese government.
July 1, 2021: Following Fitch's move, Moody's downgraded the company's credit rating into B2 from B1 citing weak access to funding and reduced liquidity.
July 6, 2021: Evergrande bonds fell by 10% in one day, dragging bonds in the same sector as Kaisa, Fantasia, Risesun, Sunac, etc.
July 8, 2021: Bloomberg reported that Evergrande was increasing issuance of IOU commercial bills and had $32 billion in commercial bills indicating Evergrande is facing a liquidity crisis as banks and investors avoided providing long-term funding.
In addition, China Guangfa Bank was ordered by a court of law in Jiangsu Province to freeze the bank accounts of Evergrande's subsidiary Hengda Real Estate Group and its business units for a frozen amount of CNY 132 billion (USD 20 billion).
26 Januari 2021: Unit usaha mobil listrik Evergrande, China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle berhasil mengumpulkan dana sebesar USD3,4 miliar dari enam investor baru.
29 Maret 2021: Evergrande menjual 10% dari usaha marketplace real estate dan otomotif Fangchebao seharga USD2,1 miliar dalam kesepakatan pra-IPO.
20-28 Juni 2021: Evergrande akan membayar obligasi senilai USD 1,47 miliar dengan kupon 6,25% yang jatuh tempo Juni 2021 dengan menjual 29,9% sahamnya di unit usaha Cixon senilai CNY2,5 miliar (USD386 juta).
Selain itu Evergrande menjual saham di unit internetnya HengTen Networks Group seharga USD570 juta.
23 Juni 2021: Fitch menurunkan peringkat Evergrande menjadi B dari B+
30 Juni 2021: Evergrande mengatakan bahwa mereka berhasil mengurangi utangnya sebesar 15% sejak Maret dan 20% sejak Desember 2020 menjadi USD88 miliar di akhir Juni dan telah memenuhi ambang batas rasio utang bersih/ekuitas, salah satu rasio “the three red lines” yang diberlakukan pemerintah China.
1 Juli 2021: Mengukuti langkah Fitch, Moody’s menurunkan peringkat kredit perusahaan menjadi B2 dari B1 dengan alasan melemahnya akses pendanaan dan berkurangnya likuiditas.
6 Juli 2021: Obligasi Evergrande turun sebanyak 10%
dalam satu hari, menyeret obligasi di sector yang sama seperti Kaisa, Fantasia, Risesun, Sunac dll.
8 Juli 2021: Bloomberg melaporkan bahwa Evergrande meningkatkan penerbitan IOU commercial bills dan memiliki commercial bills sebesar USD32 miliar yang menunjukkan Evergrande sedang menghadapi krisis likuiditas karena bank dan investor menghindari memberikan pendanaan jangka panjang.
Selain itu, China Guangfa Bank diperintahkan oleh pengadilan di provinsi Jiangsu untuk membekukan rekening bank anak usaha Evergrande, Hengda Real Estate Group dan unit usahanya dengan jumlah yang dibekukan sebesar CNY132 miliar (USD20 miliar).
September 6, 2020: Evergrande offers a 30% discount on the sale of its properties to drive sales. Evergrande raised USD555 million through the sale of a secondary stock in Hong Kong.
September 25, 2020: Concerns about Evergrande began to surface. A letter circulated on the internet that Evergrande planned to accelerate the backdoor listing of its subsidiary Hengda Real Estate on the Shenzhen stock exchange by January 31, 2021. The letter says that if it fails to go public by that date, some of Evergrande's biggest strategic investors have the right to demand their money back, amounting to CNY130 billion (USD19 billion), equal to about 92% of the company's cash balance at that time.
September 30, 2020: Evergrande reached agreement that its strategic investors would not demand their money back. This was the beginning of the next event and major creditors especially banks began to reduce their exposure to the company.
January 26, 2021: Evergrande's electric car business unit, China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle, raised USD3.4 billion from six new investors.
March 29, 2021: Evergrande sold 10% of real estate and automotive marketplace Fangchebao for USD2.1 billion in a pre-IPO agreement.
June 20-28 2021: Evergrande had to pay USD1.47 billion of bonds with a coupon of 6.25% maturing in June 2021 by selling its 29.9% stocks in the Cixon business unit for CNY2.5 billion (USD386 million). In addition Evergrande sold the stoks in its internet unit HengTen Networks Group for USD570 million.
June 23, 2021: Fitch downgraded Evergrande into B from B+
June 30, 2021: Evergrande says that it managed to reduce its debt by 15% since March and 20% since December 2020 to USD88 billion at the end of June and has met the net debt/equity ratio threshold, one of the three red lines ratioes enforced by the Chinese government.
July 1, 2021: Following Fitch's move, Moody's downgraded the company's credit rating into B2 from B1 citing weak access to funding and reduced liquidity.
July 6, 2021: Evergrande bonds fell by 10% in one day, dragging bonds in the same sector as Kaisa, Fantasia, Risesun, Sunac, etc.
July 8, 2021: Bloomberg reported that Evergrande was increasing issuance of IOU commercial bills and had $32 billion in commercial bills indicating Evergrande is facing a liquidity crisis as banks and investors avoided providing long-term funding.
In addition, China Guangfa Bank was ordered by a court of law in Jiangsu Province to freeze the bank accounts of Evergrande's subsidiary Hengda Real Estate Group and its business units for a frozen amount of CNY 132 billion (USD 20 billion).
21 Juli 2021: Penjualan proyek Evergrande terhenti sementara, tetapi perusahaan mengirimkan USD352 juta untuk membayar bunga atas 4 obligasi berdenominasi dolarnya. S&P memangkas dua tingkat peringkat perusahaan menjadi B- dari B+ dengan outlook negatif.
22 Juli 2021: Bank-bank terkemuka di Hong Kong menghentikan pemberian kredit kepada pembeli properti Evergrande.
27-29 Juli 2021: Peringkat kredit Evergrande diturunkan dua peringkat menjadi B- oleh S&P dan dalam pekan yang sama, S&P menurunkan dua peringkat lagi menjadi CCC+.
30 Juli 2021: Obligasi Evergrande anjlok setelah pengadilan membekukan total 20% kepemilikan sahamnya di anak usaha yang terdaftar di bursa Shanghai, Langfang Development Co. selama tiga tahun.
3 Agustus 2021: Moody’s menurunkan dua peringkat Evergrande ke Caa1.
11-27 Agustus 2021: Ada berita positif mengenai penjualan saham unit usaha dan sentimen investor menjadi redup karena ada kemungkinan dukungan negara.
1 September 2021: Evergrande melaporkan kinerja keuangan dimana perusahaan memperingatkan risiko default.
7-10 September 2021: Evergrande melaporkan bahwa penjualan properti bulan Agustus turun 26% YoY. Moody’s menurunkan peringkat perusahaan menjadi Ca dari Caa1.
14-17 September 2021: Evergrande, pemegang obligasi dan pemerintah China menyewa penasihat ketika perusahaan memperingatkan adanya risiko default dalam keterbukaan kepada bursa.
16 September 2021: S&P menurunkan peringkat Evergrande ke CC dan harga obligasi dolarnya mencapai posisi terendah sepanjang masa dengan harga kurang dari USD20 sen.
July 21, 2021: Sale of the Evergrande project was temporarily stopped, but the company remits USD352 million to pay interest on its 4 dollar-denominated bonds.
S&P cut the company's rating two levels into B- from B+
with a negative outlook.
July 22, 2021: Hong Kong's leading banks stop lending to buyers of Evergrande’s properties.
July 27-29 2021: Evergrande's credit rating was downgraded two ratings into B- by S&P and in the same week, S&P downgraded two more ratings into CCC+.
July 30, 2021: Evergrande's bonds dropped after a court of law freezes its total 20% stocks in Shanghai-listed subsidiary Langfang Development Co. for three years.
August 3, 2021: Moody's downgraded two Evergrande ratings into Caa1.
11-27 August 2021: There was positive news regarding the sale of business unit stocks and investor sentiment was dimmed due to possible state support.
September 1, 2021: Evergrande reported financial performance where company warns of default risk
7-10 September 2021: Evergrande reported that property sales in August decreased by 26% YoY. Moody's downgraded the company's rating into Ca from Caa1.
September 14-17, 2021: Evergrande, bondholders and the Chinese government hired advisors as the company warns of the risk of default in disclosure to exchanges.
September 16, 2021: S&P downgraded Evergrande rating into CC and its dollar bond price hit an all-time low of less than USD 20 cents.
Harga obligasi Evergrande Price of a Key Evergrande Bond
Jatuh tempo obligasi Evergrande yang akan datang (dalam USD miliar) Upcoming maturity of Evergrande bonds (in USD billion)
Jatuh tempo kupon obligasi Evergrande yang akan datang (dalam USD juta) Upcoming maturity of Evergrande coupon bonds (in USD billion)
Sumber: Bloomberg
Sumber : Bloomberg, BondEvalue Sumber : Bloomberg, BondEvalue 6
5 4 3 2 1 0
500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 -
1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q24 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26 2
1.4 1.4 1.4
2.6 2.6
4.7
2.2 2 3.5
0.7
0.7 0.6 0.3
0.8 1
USD RMB
USD RMB
Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22 Jan-23 Mar-23 May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23 Nov-24 Jan-24 Mar-24 May-24 Jul-24 Sep-24 Nov-24
$100 80 60 40
20 Jan
2021 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
WHAT TO WATCH
Efek risiko default Evergrande
Kesepakatan plafon utang Amerika Serikat Tingkat inflasi yang lebih cepat dari perkiraan Pelonggaran kebijakan PPKM di berbagai daerah di Indonesia
Evergrande default risk spill over United States debt ceiling agreement Faster-than-expected inflation rate Relaxation of the PPKM policy in various regions in Indonesia
OVERWEIGHT
Pada kelas aset saham Indonesia (jangka menengah dan panjang) For the Indonesian stock asset class (medium and long term)
NEUTRAL
Pada investasi kelas aset saham berbasis Dolar Amerika Serikat dengan eksposur negara maju For US Dollar based on stock asset with exposure to developed countries investments
REKOMENDASI INVESTASI
INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION
NEUTRAL
Pada kelas aset obligasi Indonesia (jangka menengah dan panjang) For Indonesian obligations asset class (medium and long term) Hadirnya emiten baru sektor teknologi di bursa domestik
akan memberikan sentimen positif dan meningkatkan potensi bertambahnya bobot Indonesia dalam indeks MSCI yang akan diikuti oleh aliran dana asing.
The presence of new issuers in the technology sector on the domestic market will provide positive sentiment and increase the potential for Indonesia's weight gain in the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) index, which will be followed by foreign fund flows.
Indonesia still offers attractive real yields compared to other emerging market countries. This may trigger foreign funds to the Indonesian domestic bonds market. On the other hand, after reducing the interest rate into 3.5% on February, Bank Indonesia said that the room for reduced interest rate grows smaller.
Higher vaccination rates in developed countries than in developing countries make the process of economic recovery in developed countries faster. The tightening of regulations by the Chinese government on several industries will result in uncertainty in the short term in emerging markets in general and the Chinese market in particular.
Indonesia masih menawarkan real yield yang atraktif di antara negara emerging market, hal ini dapat memicu aliran dana asing ke pasar obligasi domestik. Di sisi lain, setelah melakukan pemotongan suku bunga menjadi 3,5% pada bulan Februari, Bank Indonesia mengatakan ruang penurunan suku bunga semakin kecil.
Tingkat vaksinasi yang lebih tinggi di negara maju dibandingkan negara berkembang membuat proses pemulihan ekonomi di negara maju lebih cepat. Adanya pengetatan peraturan oleh pemerintah China terhadap beberapa industri memberikan ketidakpastian dalam jangka pendek di pasar negara berkembang secara umum dan pasar China secara khusus.
Percepatan program vaksinasi yang dilakukan di beberapa negara di dunia termasuk Indonesia memberikan harapan pemulihan ekonomi terus berlanjut pada tahun ini. Selain itu, kondisi likuiditas yang masih tinggi hasil stimulus raksasa Amerika Serikat juga masih akan menopang pasar keuangan ke depan. Untuk profil risiko moderate direkomendasikan untuk menambah porsi kelas aset ekuitas. Begitu pula dengan profil risiko growth direkomendasikan untuk menambah porsi kelas aset ekuitas dengan mengurangi porsi kelas aset pasar uang.
The acceleration of vaccination program conducted in several countries around the world, including Indonesia gives hope to a continued economic recovery in this year. In addition, the high liquidity condition as a result of the giant stimulus of the US will still support the financial market going forward. For moderate risk profiles, it is recommended to add in the equity asset class. This also applies with the growth risk profile, for this risk profile, it is recommended to add in the equity asset class and reduce the money market asset class portion.
REKOMENDASI PORTOFOLIO PORTFOLIO RECOMMENDATION
CONSERVATIVE
Equity 10%
Money Market 55%
Fixed Income 35%
CONSERVATIVE
Equity 5%
Money Market 60%
Fixed Income 35%
Equity Fixed Income Money Market
0%
5%
0%
-5%
-10% 10%
HIGH GROWTH
Equity 85%
Fixed Income 10%
Money Market 5%
HIGH GROWTH
Equity 80%
Fixed Income 10%
Money Market 10%
MODERATE
Equity 20%
Money Market Fixed 50%
Income 30%
MODERATE
Equity 15%
Money Market Fixed 55%
Income 30%
Equity Fixed Income Money Market
0%
5%
0%
-5%
-10% 10%
Equity
35% Money
Market 30%
Fixed Income 35%
BALANCED
Equity
30% Money
Market 35%
Fixed Income
35%
BALANCED
Equity Fixed Income Money Market
0%
5%
0%
-5%
-10% 10%
Equity 65%
Money Market 15%
Fixed Income 20%
GROWTH
Equity 60%
Money Market 20%
Fixed Income
20%
GROWTH
Equity Fixed Income Money Market
0%
5%
0%
-5%
-10% 10%
Equity Fixed Income Money Market
0%
5%
0%
-5%
-10% 10%
ANALISA VALAS FOREX ANALYSIS
USD/IDR
Rapat Dewan Gubernur (RDG) Bank Indonesia pada 21 September 2021 memutuskan untuk mempertahankan BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate (BI7DRR) sebesar 3,50%. Suku bunga akan tetap dipertahankan di level rendah sampai dengan akhir 2021 ini, sebelum mulai melakukan pengetatan di tahun 2022.
Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI), Perry Warjiyo memproyeksikan ekonomi Indonesia berada di kisaran 3,5% - 4,3% tahun 2021 ini. Sementara BI juga mencatat rupiah terdepresiasi 1,35%
dibanding akhir Desember 2020.
Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) September 2021 tercatat mengalami deflasi 0,04% (MoM) dan inflasi 1,6% (YoY).
Cadangan devisa Indonesia September 2021 mengalami kenaikan 1,45% menjadi USD 146.9 miliar dari sebelumnya di angka USD144.8 miliar.
Gubernur Bank Sentral Amerika Serikat (The Fed), Jerome Powell mengatakan The Fed akan mengurangi pembelian obligasi mulai November 2021 karena adanya ekspektasi kenaikan inflasi di Amerika Serikat.
Suku bunga The Fed diprediksi akan tetap dipertahankan di angka 0,25% sampai dengan akhir tahun 2022.
Diperkirakan USD/IDR akan cenderung bergerak dengan rentang 14,100-14,400 selama bulan Oktober 2021.
The Bank Indonesia Board of Governors' Meeting (RDG) on September 21, 2021 decided to maintain the BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate (BI7DRR) at 3.50%. Interest rates will be maintained at a low level until the end of 2021, before starting to tighten in 2022.
The Governor of Bank Indonesia (BI), Perry Warjiyo, projects that the Indonesian economy will be within the range of 3.5% - 4.3% in 2021. Meanwhile, BI also noted that the rupiah depreciated 1.35%
compared to the end of December 2020.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) September 2021 recorded deflation of 0.04% (MoM) and inflation of 1.6% (YoY).
Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves in September 2021 increased by 1.45% to USD146.9 billion from the previous figure of USD144.8 billion.
The Governor of the United States Central Bank (The Fed), Jerome Powell said the Fed will reduce bond purchases from November 2021 due to expectations of rising inflation in the United States.
The Fed's interest rate is predicted to be maintained at 0.25% until the end of 2022.
It is estimated that USD/IDR will tend to move in a range of 14,100-14,400 during October 2021.
Open: 14,284 High: 14,321 Low: 14,195 Close: 14,321
$ Rp
AUD/USD
Bank Sentral Australia (Reserve Bank of Australia) akan tetap mempertahankan suku bunga rendah di level 0,1% sampai inflasi stabil di kisaran target 2%-3%.
RBA akan mulai menaikkan suku bunga secara bertahap apabila target inflasi tercapai sampai dengan akhir tahun 2024.
AUD berpotensi melemah karena proyeksi perlambatan perekenomian China dan kebijakan moneter yang tetap longgar.
RBA juga akan melanjutkan program pembelian government securities AUD 4bio/minggu paling cepat hingga Feb 2022.
Diperkirakan AUD/USD akan cenderung bergerak dengan rentang 0.7120-0.7590 pada bulan Oktober 2021.
The Reserve Bank of Australia will keep interest rates low at 0.1% until inflation stabilizes within the target range of 2%-3%.
The RBA will start raising interest rates gradually if the inflation target is reached by the end of 2024.
AUD has the potential to weaken due to the projected slowdown in China's economy and the loose monetary policy.
The RBA will also continue its AUD 4bio/week government securities purchase program until Feb 2022 at the earliest.
It is estimated that AUD/USD will tend to move within the range of 0.7120-0.7590 in October 2021.
Open: 0.7316 High: 0.7321 Low: 0.7170 Close: 0.7218
$ AUD$
AUD$
$
EUR/USD
Bank Sentral Eropa (European Central Bank - ECB) sedang mempersiapkan kebijakan terbaru di Desember tahun ini dan masih mempertahankan kebijakan moneter yang akomodatif serta mempertahankan inflasi stabil di angka 2%.
Suku bunga di Eropa diprediksi akan dipertahankan di angka -0.5% sampai dengan akhir 2022.
ECB akan mulai mengurangi stimulus untuk pandemi senilai USD2.2 triliun di kuartal keempat tahun ini dan berencana stimulus tersebut berakhir di Maret 2022.
Eropa sedang mengalami krisis energi dan keadaan diperburuk dengan musim dingin yang sudah semakin dekat. Harga gas sudah naik 200% sejak Januari 2021.
EUR/USD akan cenderung bergerak dalam rentang 1.1390-1.1730 pada bulan Oktober 2021.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is preparing its latest policy in December this year and still maintains an accommodative monetary policy and maintains stable inflation at 2%.
Interest rates in Europe are predicted to be maintained at -0.5% until the end of 2022.
The ECB will begin to reduce stimulus for the pandemic worth USD2.2 trillion in the fourth quarter of this year and plans to end the stimulus in March 2022.
Europe is experiencing an energy crisis and the situation is made worse by the approaching winter.
Gas prices have increased by 200% since January 2021.
EUR/USD will tend to move in the range 1.1390-1.1730 in October 2021, 5121 6900
Open: 1.1804 High: 1.1804 Low: 1.1563 Close: 1.1576
GBP/USD
Bank Sentral Inggris (Bank of England - BOE) diproyeksikan akan menaikkan suku bunga di level 0.25% pada akhir 2022 jika inflasi di Inggris naik melebihi target inflasi BOE di angka 2% sampai dengan akhir tahun 2021 ini.
GBP sudah melemah 500pips dari titik tertinggi bulan Sept 2021. Hal ini dikarenakan Inggris sedang mengalami krisis bahan bakar minyak (BBM).
Ketentuan Brexit terkait imigrasi dan izin kerja membuat Inggris kesulitan SDM pengemudi truk untuk supply chain BBM dan bahan makanan sehingga Pemerintah Inggris berencana akan menaikkan upah tenaga kerja untuk mengatasi krisis SDM tersebut.
Diperkirakan GBP/USD akan bergerak dalam rentang 1.3430-1.3740 pada bulan Oktober 2021.
The Central Bank of England (Bank of England - BOE) is projected to raise interest rates to 0.25% by the end of 2022 if inflation in the UK rises beyond the BOE's inflation target of 2% by the end of 2021.
GBP has weakened 500pips from its highest point in September 2021. This is because the UK is experiencing a fuel crisis.
Brexit provisions related to immigration and work permits have made it difficult for the UK to find truck drivers for the supply chain of fuel and foodstuffs, so the UK Government plans to increase the wages of workers to overcome the HR crisis.
It is estimated that GBP/USD will move in the range of 1.3430-1.3740 in October 2021.
Open: 1.3737 High: 1.3813 Low: 1.3412 Close: 1.3455
$
USD/JPY
Bank of Japan (BOJ) diprediksi belum akan mengurangi paket stimulus dalam waktu dekat karena prediksi inflasi di Jepang masih di bawah target.
Data Retail Sales Jepang rilis di -3.2%, jauh dibawah perkiraan di -1%.
Pemerintah Jepang melakukan penyesuaian tarif pajak untuk dapat mengurangi kesenjangan pendapatan di Jepang.
Perdana Menteri baru Jepang Kishida juga menawarkan Bantuan Langsung Tunai (BLT) dan berjanji menyusun paket stimulus bernilai triliun yen.
Diperkirakan USD/JPY akan cenderung bergerak dengan rentang 111.40-114.90 pada bulan Oktober 2021.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is not expected to reduce its stimulus package in the near future because inflation forecasts in Japan are still below the target.
Japan's Retail Sales data came out at -3.2%, far below the -1% forecast.
The Japanese government adjusted the tax rate to reduce the income gap in Japan.
Japan's new Prime Minister Kishida also offered Cash Direct Assistance (BLT) and promised to draw up a trillion yen stimulus package.
It is estimated that USD/JPY will tend to move with the range 111.40-114.90 in October 2021.
Open: 110.18 High: 112.08 Low: 109.12 Close: 111.15
$
FX OUTLOOK*
Support-2 Support-1 Mata Uang
Currency Resistance-1 14,100
0.7120 1.1390 1.3430 111.40
14,000 0.7230 1.1470 1.3540 112.20
USD/IDR AUD/USD EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY
14,300 0.7410 1.1650 1.3630 113.70
Resistance-2
14,400 0.7590 1.1730 1.3740 114.90
Keterangan / Remarks::
1. 'Support-1' adalah estimasi batas bawah pertama ketika suatu mata uang melemah.
Apabila batas ini terlewati, maka diperkirakan akan menuju 'Support-2'.
'Support-1' is the first estimated lower limit when a currency weakens.
If this limit is exceeded, it is expected to go to 'Support-2'.
2. 'Resistance-1' adalah estimasi batas atas pertama ketika suatu mata uang menguat.
Apabila batas ini terlewati, maka diperkirakan akan menuju ke 'Resistance-2’.
'Resistance-1' is the first estimated upper limit when a currency strengthens.
If this limit is exceeded, it is expected to go to 'Resistance-2'.
*Estimasi dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu sesuai dengan kondisi pasar terbaru
* Estimates are subject to change at any time according to the latest market conditions
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