Riset Saham Harian
Samuel Research
21 Juni 2017
www.samuel.co.id
Page 1 of 7
IHSG cenderung flat
Bursa AS ditutup melemah sejalan dengan pelemahan sektor energy
menyusul penurunan harga minyak mentah. Di sisi lain, rencana
Amazon.com untuk meningkatkan bisnis pakaian jadi menjadi ancaman bagi
sektor ritel. Saat ini investor masih sedikit khawatir terhadap kenaikan suku
bunga The Fed di waktu mendatang. Sama halnya bursa Eropa ditutup
melemah menyusul melemahnya harga minyak yang menyeret
saham-saham terkait. Harga minyak mentah sempat turun tajam, setelah berita
kenaikan pasokan oleh beberapa produsen utama yang mengkhawatirkan
bagi upaya OPEC untuk menstabilkan pasar melalui penurunan output.
Dari domestik, Fitch Ratings mengatakan Indonesia berpeluang mendapat
kenaikan peringkat kredit jika tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi terjaga dengan
baik. Di sisi lain, suasana menjelang lebaran membuat pasar cenderung flat
saat ini. Rupiah diperkirakan akan tertekan dollar yang kuat untuk sementara.
EIDO ditutup melemah semalam.
Highlights
PTPP: Akan investasi Rp7tn
JSMR: Gandeng swasta garap tol Cikampek II Selatan
BNLI: Laba bersih membaik
Migas: Konsumsi bensin diperkirakan naik 31% dibanding hari biasa
TLKM: Belum berencana menambah saham Tiphone
:
5,791.9
:
+50.0
(+0.9%)
:
4,050
Mn shrs
:
5,327
Bn rupiah
Last
Close
+/-
%
ASII
8,950
225
2.6
TLKM
4,490
90
2.0
UNVR
48,250
650
1.4
BBRI
14,975
175
1.2
PGAS
2,300
-100
-4.2
EMTK
10,700
-200
-1.8
GGRM
79,400
-500
-0.6
MDIA
232
-18
-7.2
Foreign Net Buy / Sell
Net Buy (Rpbn)
Net Sell (Rpbn)
AKRA
22
BMRI
122
GGRM
22
JSMR
70
BBRI
20
ASII
64
BBCA
19
TLKM
60
WIKA
13
SMGR
48
Money Market
Last
Close
+/-
%
USD/IDR
13,289
0.0
0.0
JIBOR O/N
4.5
0.1
-Infl (MoM)
0.4
-
-Dual Listing Securities
Last
Close
+/-
%
TLKM
33.4
0.1
0.2
ISAT
39.8
-0.7
-1.8
EIDO
26.9
-0.2
-0.8
World Indices
Last
Close
+/-
%
DJIA
21,467
-62
-0.3
S&P 500
2,437
-16
-0.7
Euro Stoxx
3,561
-19
-0.5
MSCI World
1,923
-14
-0.7
Nikkei
20,174
-57
-0.3
Hang Seng
25,843
-82
-0.3
Commodities
Last
Close
+/-
%
Brent Oil
46
-0.1
-0.2
CPO Malay
2,466
-22.0
-0.9
Coal Newc
81
-1.6
-1.9
Nickel
8,781
-190.0
-2.1
Tin
19,625
-50.0
-0.3
Market Value
Changes
Leading Movers
Market Activity
Wednesday, 21 Jun 2017
Market Index
Index Movement
Market Volume
Changes
Changes
Changes
Changes
Lagging Movers
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21 Juni 2017
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Page 2 of 7
PTPP: Akan investasi Rp7tn
PT PP (Persero), Tbk, (PTPP) tertarik untuk investasi di tiga ruas jalan tol dengan total panjnag
mencapai 165km. Adapun ketiga ruas jalan tol tersebut adalah: Probolinggo -Banyuwangi (100
km), Semarang-Demak (30km) dan Gempol-Mojokerto (35 km).
Sepanjang Jan17-Mei17 PTPP membukukan kontrak baru sebesar Rp12.6tn (+77%YoY) atau
sekitar 31% dari target perolehan kontrak baru tahun ini. Sekitar Rp10.9tn diperoleh dari induk
usaha dan sisanya dari kontrak anak perusahaan. (Bisnis Indonesia). PTPP: BUY; 14.2x P/E17E
dan 1.7x PBV 17E.
JSMR: Gandeng swasta garap tol Cikampek II Selatan
PT Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR) menggandeng PT Wira Nusantara Bumi untuk membentuk
konsorsium yang akan mengikuti lelang tol Jakarta
– Cikampek II Selatan. JSMR akan menjadi
pemegang saham mayoritas dalam konsorsium tersebut. Rencananya jalan tol Jakarta
–
Cikampek II Selatan akan melintasi Kota Bekasi, Kabupaten Bogor, Kabupaten Bekasi, Kabupaten
Karawang, dan Kabupaten Purwakarta. Untuk merealisasikan ruas tol ini, konsorsium menyiapkan
dana investasi sebesar Rp 13,38 triliun. (Bisnis Indonesia). JSMR: BUY: BUY; 20.2x P/E17E dan
2.8x PBV 17E.
BNLI: Laba bersih membaik
Laba bersih per Mei 2017 diberitakan Rp 582 miliar atau membaik dari rugi bersih R p 6,5 triliun di
sepanjang tahun lalu April lalu. Kredit belum tumbuh, sementara NPL diyakini oleh manajemen
akan menurun ke arah 5% seiring dengan penjualan bad debt dan restrukturisasi.
Porsi dana murah dan fee-based income akan terus dikembangkan. Untuk kredit, saat ini segmen
korporasi dan ritel memiliki perbandingan 40:60, ke depannya direncanakan menjadi 50:50.
(Investor Daily).
Comment:
Berdasarkan berita tersebut, laba bersih (bank only) di bulan Mei hanya sebesar Rp 37 miliar.
Meski demikian, kami lihat estimasi laba bersih kami maupun konsensus di tahun ini sekitar Rp 1,4
triliun masih dapat tercapai ditopang antara lain oleh biaya pencadangan yang lebih kecil dan
penjualan bad debt.
Pertumbuhan kredit masih tertekan karena fokus manajemen saat ini pada kualitas kredit. Namun,
kami melihat BNLI memiliki likuiditas yang cukup untuk menggenjot kredit, dimana manajemen
menyatakan akan lebih mengarah pada kredit ke Astra value chain dan proyek infrastruktur, serta
nasabah lama yang berkualitas baik. BNL
I: BUY; 17E’ PE: 12.9x, PBV: 0.9x.
Migas: Konsumsi bensin diperkirakan naik 31% dibanding hari biasa
PT Pertamina memperkirakan konsumsi bensin naik 31% dibanding hari biasa, saat puncak arus
mudik pada 24 Juni atau H-1 Idul Fitri. Namun, Pertamina menjamin pasokan BBM sehingga
masyarakat akan tetap aman. Stok premium tercatat mencapai 1,2 juta KL untuk 22 hari, Pertalite
983.636 KL untuk 24 hari, Pertamax 798.362 KL untuk 21 hari, Pertamina Turbo 25.822 KL untuk
31 hari. (Investor Daily). Oil and gas: Neutral.
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21 Juni 2017
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TLKM: Belum berencana menambah saham Tiphone
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLKM) belum berencana meningkatkan kepemilikan saham
pada PT Tiphone Mobile Indonesia Tbk (TELE). (Investor Daily). TLKM: BUY;
17E’ PE: 18.7x,
PBV: 4.5x.
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21 Juni 2017
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Page 4 of 7
Stock Rec. Mkt Cap Last price 1D Chg YTD Chg TP Cons TP SSI Upside PE PE PBV PBV ROE ROE
(Rp bn) (Rp) (%) (%) (Rp) (Rp) (%) 17E 18E 17E 18E 17E 18E
Banks BMRI BUY 292,250 12525 0.4 8.2 12280 14000 11.8 14.7 11.9 1.7 1.4 11.3% 12.0% BBCA HOLD 446,256 18100 1.0 16.8 18730 18000 -0.6 19.3 18.2 3.4 3.0 17.9% 16.5% BBRI BUY 369,421 14975 1.2 28.3 14941 15550 3.8 13.2 11.6 2.2 1.9 16.8% 16.8% BBNI BUY 124,946 6700 2.3 21.3 7134 7350 9.7 9.2 8.0 1.3 1.1 13.9% 14.2% BBTN BUY 28,169 2660 0.0 52.9 2697 2870 7.9 9.0 8.4 1.3 1.2 14.4% 13.7% BNLI BUY 19,209 685 0.7 27.7 803 890 29.9 12.9 14.3 0.9 0.8 6.7% 5.7% Average 13.1 12.1 1.8 1.6 0.1 0.1 Consumer (Staples) ICBP BUY 102,333 8775 1.2 2.3 9486 10300 17.4 24.6 21.6 5.1 4.5 20.8% 20.9% INDF BUY 74,634 8500 2.1 7.3 9603 9900 16.5 16.0 13.9 2.3 2.1 14.2% 14.9% KLBF BUY 75,235 1605 0.9 5.9 1720 1750 9.0 30.3 26.8 5.7 5.0 18.7% 18.7% ROTI BUY 6,403 1265 (2.7) (20.9) 1793 2050 62.1 18.3 15.6 3.8 3.2 20.5% 20.2% ULTJ BUY 14,442 5000 0.0 9.4 5600 5300 6.0 18.8 17.0 3.5 3.0 18.9% 17.5% UNVR HOLD 368,148 48250 1.4 24.4 46867 45200 -6.3 51.5 46.0 60.1 52.6 116.6% 114.4% SIDO BUY 7,440 496 (0.8) (4.6) 682 700 41.1 13.8 11.0 2.6 2.5 18.9% 22.4% AISA BUY 5,439 1690 (2.0) (13.1) 2306 2500 47.9 10.8 8.9 1.3 1.1 11.7% 12.5% Average 23.0 20.1 10.5 9.2 30.0% 30.2% Cigarette HMSP BUY 446,661 3840 0.3 0.3 4208 4390 14.3 34.6 33.4 11.9 10.8 34.3% 32.4% GGRM BUY 152,773 79400 (0.6) 24.3 78515 77150 -2.8 22.5 21.2 3.2 2.8 14.1% 13.4% Average 28.5 27.3 7.5 6.8 24.2% 22.9% Healthcare MIKA BUY 29,247 2010 (2.0) (21.8) 2862 2950 46.8 37.2 34.1 7.3 6.6 19.6% 19.3% SILO HOLD 14,729 11325 (1.9) 3.9 13510 12500 10.4 139.8 110.0 4.6 4.2 3.3% 3.8% Average 88.5 72.0 5.9 5.4 11.4% 11.6% Poultry CPIN BUY 51,490 3140 (1.3) 1.6 3225 4500 43.3 13.2 12.3 1.7 1.5 12.8% 12.4% JPFA BUY 15,176 1330 0.0 (8.6) 1581 1500 12.8 7.8 6.3 1.4 1.2 18.0% 18.9% MAIN BUY 2,474 1105 0.5 (15.0) 1216 2280 106.3 6.0 4.7 0.9 0.8 15.9% 17.2% Average 9.0 7.8 1.4 1.2 15.6% 16.2% Retail MAPI BUY 10,624 6400 0.0 18.5 7432 7700 20.3 42.4 30.6 3.0 2.8 7.2% 9.1% RALS BUY 8,693 1225 (0.4) 2.5 1497 1750 42.9 18.8 14.9 2.3 2.1 12.0% 13.9% ACES HOLD 18,608 1085 2.8 29.9 1029 900 -17.1 26.5 22.6 5.9 4.9 22.2% 21.8% LPPF BUY 42,456 14550 0.2 (3.8) 16317 19500 34.0 15.4 14.8 12.5 8.9 81.1% 60.0% Average 25.8 20.7 5.9 4.7 30.6% 26.2% Telco EXCL BUY 34,629 3240 0.3 40.3 3498 3200 -1.2 87.6 57.9 1.6 1.6 1.8% 2.7% ISAT BUY 35,049 6450 3.2 0.0 8233 8200 27.1 17.7 12.7 2.4 2.1 13.4% 16.7% TLKM BUY 452,592 4490 2.0 13.3 4843 5000 11.4 18.7 14.5 4.5 3.9 24.0% 26.7% TOWR BUY 38,975 3820 (1.3) 6.7 4638 4500 17.8 11.1 10.4 2.7 2.2 24.5% 20.7% Average 33.8 23.9 2.8 2.4 15.9% 16.7% Auto and HE ASII BUY 362,328 8950 2.6 8.2 9299 9000 0.6 16.2 13.8 2.8 2.3 17.2% 16.4% UNTR BUY 100,714 27000 2.1 27.1 29650 31500 16.7 15.5 13.7 2.3 2.0 14.7% 14.9% Average 15.8 13.7 2.5 2.1 15.9% 15.7% Aviation GIAA HOLD 8,957 346 0.0 2.4 372 420 21.4 259.9 26.0 0.6 0.4 0.2% 1.7% Property BSDE BUY 34,933 1815 0.0 3.4 2303 2350 29.5 16.2 14.0 1.4 1.2 8.7% 8.5% PWON BUY 29,137 605 (0.8) 7.1 720 710 17.4 14.8 12.3 2.8 2.4 19.2% 19.3% ASRI HOLD 6,249 318 0.0 (9.7) 437 390 22.6 9.4 8.8 0.8 0.8 8.8% 8.7% SMRA HOLD 18,611 1290 (1.5) (2.6) 1579 1307 1.3 56.1 43.0 2.2 2.1 4.0% 4.8% SSIA BUY 2,964 630 (1.6) 45.2 912 750 19.0 14.0 11.7 0.9 0.9 6.6% 7.5% CTRA BUY 21,623 1165 0.9 (12.7) 1588 1580 35.6 13.5 11.3 1.4 1.3 10.3% 11.1% DMAS BUY 10,604 220 0.0 (4.3) 309 300 36.4 12.5 10.1 1.2 1.1 9.7% 10.8% KIJA BUY 6,695 324 0.6 11.0 400 450 38.9 14.1 12.5 1.1 1.0 7.8% 8.1% Average 18.8 15.5 1.5 1.3 9.4% 9.8%
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21 Juni 2017
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Construction PTPP BUY 19,840 3200 1.6 (16.0) 4625 4150 29.7 14.2 12.0 1.7 1.5 11.8% 12.6% ADHI HOLD 7,763 2180 0.5 4.8 2701 2550 17.0 23.4 19.6 1.4 1.3 6.0% 6.5% WSKT BUY 31,355 2310 1.8 (9.4) 3244 3250 40.7 13.8 10.9 1.6 1.5 11.7% 14.2% WIKA BUY 19,913 2220 0.9 (5.9) 3087 3000 35.1 17.9 15.6 1.4 1.3 8.0% 8.3% Average 17.3 14.6 1.5 1.4 9.4% 10.4% Cement INTP SELL 68,747 18675 2.3 21.3 15471 13500 -27.7 18.9 17.8 2.4 2.2 12.9% 12.6% SMGR HOLD 60,502 10200 0.5 11.2 9921 9000 -11.8 15.0 13.5 1.9 1.8 12.9% 12.9% SMCB SELL 5,747 750 0.7 (16.7) 770 700 -6.7 -31.3 -25.0 0.7 0.7 -2.3% -2.8% SMBR HOLD 30,594 3090 5.8 10.8 539 2300 -25.6 81.3 77.3 8.1 7.2 10.0% 9.3% Average 21.0 20.9 3.3 3.0 8.4% 8.0% Precast WSBP BUY 12,601 478 0.0 (13.9) 678 690 44.4 18.8 12.3 1.5 1.3 8.0% 10.6% WTON BUY 5,491 630 0.0 (23.6) 1105 1150 82.5 16.6 14.3 1.8 1.5 10.9% 10.6% Average 17.7 13.3 1.7 1.4 9.4% 10.6%Oil and Gas
PGAS HOLD 55,755 2300 (4.2) (14.8) 3019 2600 13.0 12.6 10.3 1.2 1.1 9.4% 10.7% AKRA BUY 26000.9 6500.0 2.4 8.3 7328.6 7600 16.9 22.2 22.0 3.4 3.1 15.2% 14.0% MEDC BUY 7,931 2380 (5.6) 80.3 4213 4500 89.1 3.3 3.1 0.6 0.5 17.6% 16.3% Average 12.7 11.8 1.7 1.6 14% 14% Utilities JSMR BUY 38,830 5350 2.4 23.8 5857 5000 -6.5 20.2 26.8 2.8 2.6 13.9% 9.8% Metal ANTM BUY 17,062 710 0.7 (20.7) 790 1250 76.1 8.3 4.4 0.8 0.8 10.0% 17.8% INCO HOLD 18,829 1895 0.0 (32.8) 2523 2145 13.2 71.3 35.7 0.8 0.8 1.1% 2.1% TINS BUY 5,735 770 0.0 (28.4) 1278 1200 55.8 36.7 22.6 1.1 1.0 2.9% 4.5% Average 38.8 20.9 0.9 0.9 4.7% 8.1% Coal DOID BUY 7442.7 875.0 1.7 71.6 1587.5 1600 82.9 6.0 6.2 2.6 1.8 44.0% 28.6% ITMG BUY 19,830 17550 1.9 4.0 21406 19000 8.3 8.3 8.3 1.5 1.4 17.9% 16.6% ADRO BUY 52,457 1640 4.8 (3.2) 2027 2100 28.0 12.4 11.3 1.1 1.0 8.5% 8.7% PTBA BUY 27,304 11850 3.7 (5.2) 15278 15000 26.6 12.2 9.9 2.4 2.1 19.9% 21.5% Average 9.7 8.9 1.9 1.6 22.6% 18.9% Plantation AALI BUY 27,667 14375 (1.5) (14.3) 18014 19800 37.7 15.8 13.2 1.7 1.6 10.7% 12.1% LSIP BUY 9,416 1380 (1.4) (20.7) 1705 2050 48.6 12.4 9.7 1.1 1.1 9.1% 10.9% SIMP HOLD 8,699 550 0.0 11.3 570 600 9.1 11.7 10.8 0.6 0.6 5.0% 5.2% Average 13.3 11.2 1.1 1.1 8.3% 9.4%
Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg
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21 Juni 2017
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Page 6 of 7
Regional Indices
1D Change
Points
1D
3D
1W
1M
3M
YTD
1YR
High
Low
World
(13.98)
1,923
(0.72)
(0.04)
(0.41)
1.47
4.12
9.78
15.21
1,937
1,567
U.S. (S&P)
(16.43)
2,437
(0.67)
0.19
(0.14)
2.32
3.97
8.85
16.67
2,454
1,992
U.S. (DOW)
(61.85)
21,467
(0.29)
0.50
0.65
3.18
3.87
8.63
20.40
21,535
17,063
Europe
(18.92)
3,561
(0.53)
1.00
0.08
(0.73)
3.82
8.21
20.00
3,667
2,678
Emerging Market
(4.28)
1,009
(0.42)
0.55
(0.50)
1.31
3.66
16.98
22.21
1,023
792
FTSE 100
(51.10)
7,473
(0.68)
0.72
(0.37)
0.03
1.28
4.62
n/a
7,599
5,789
CAC 40
(17.07)
5,294
(0.32)
1.47
0.61
(0.58)
5.82
8.87
21.21
5,442
3,956
Dax
(74.16)
12,815
(0.58)
0.97
0.39
1.39
7.13
11.62
27.95
12,952
9,214
Indonesia
50.00
5,792
0.87
0.27
1.48
0.00
4.49
9.35
18.72
5,874
4,754
Japan
(48.27)
20,182
(0.24)
1.20
1.50
3.02
3.73
5.59
24.82
20,318
14,864
Australia
(81.55)
5,676
(1.42)
(1.70)
(2.71)
(0.90)
(1.71)
0.17
7.61
5,957
5,051
Korea
(22.26)
2,347
(0.94)
(0.63)
(1.08)
2.56
7.74
15.82
18.37
2,387
1,893
Singapore
(16.76)
3,230
(0.52)
(0.05)
(0.83)
0.42
2.27
12.14
15.81
3,275
2,703
Malaysia
(8.19)
1,781
(0.46)
(0.52)
(0.21)
0.70
1.48
8.47
8.73
1,797
1,612
Hong Kong
(81.51)
25,843
(0.31)
1.09
(0.04)
2.65
5.08
17.47
25.04
26,090
19,663
China
(4.36)
3,140
(0.14)
0.24
(0.44)
1.60
(3.73)
1.17
9.08
3,301
2,808
Taiwan
73.86
10,324
0.72
2.34
1.94
3.79
3.53
11.57
18.88
10,354
8,374
Thailand
(2.52)
1,579
(0.16)
0.32
0.40
1.87
0.63
2.31
10.33
1,601
1,343
Philipines
(25.89)
7,918
(0.33)
(0.59)
(0.00)
1.93
8.12
15.75
1.94
8,118
6,499
Monetary Indicators
1D Change
Points
1W
1M
3M
YTD
1YR
High
Low
JIBOR Overnight (%)
0.12
4.53
5.95
17.22
0.71
7.06
(2.32)
5.58
4.16
Foreign Reserve (US$bn)
n/a
124.95
n/a
1.38
4.25
7.38
20.62
124.95
109.79
Inflation Rate (%)
n/a
0.39
n/a
333.33
69.57
(7.14)
62.50
0.97
(0.02)
US Fed Rate (%)
0.00
1.25
25.00
25.00
25.00
66.67
150.00
1.25
0.50
Indo Govt Bond Yld (10yr) - %
0.02
6.80
(1.39)
(3.58)
(4.60)
(14.75)
(11.05)
8.36
6.77
Exchange Rate (per US$)
1D Change
Currency
Points
1D
3D
1W
1M
3M
YTD
1YR
High
Low
Indonesia
0.00
13289
0.00
(0.02)
0.02
0.11
1.38
1.38
(0.18)
13,593
12,920
Japan
(0.15)
111.30
0.13
(0.38)
(1.55)
0.00
5.09
5.09
(5.89)
118.66
99.02
UK
(0.00)
1.26
(0.01)
(1.21)
(0.96)
(2.86)
2.33
2.33
(13.81)
1.50
1.18
Euro
0.00
1.11
0.01
(0.56)
(0.74)
(0.91)
5.88
5.88
(0.95)
1.14
1.03
China
0.01
6.83
(0.14)
(0.31)
(0.44)
0.84
1.70
1.70
(3.62)
6.96
6.57
Commodities Indicators
1D Change
Spot
Points
1D
3D
1W
1M
3M
YTD
1YR
High
Low
Oil
0.02
43.53
0.05
(2.70)
(2.68)
(13.51)
(8.05)
(18.97)
(10.89)
55.24
39.19
CPO
(22.00)
2,466.00
(0.88)
0.69
2.84
(6.41)
(11.29)
(20.68)
2.75
3,202.00
2,172.00
Rubber
3.50
790.50
0.44
1.35
(1.25)
(17.35)
(28.59)
(19.13)
16.85
1,174.00
644.00
Coal
(1.55)
81.20
(1.87)
(0.37)
1.00
9.21
(0.31)
(14.26)
44.48
112.25
69.00
Iron Ore
0.26
55.24
0.47
1.73
1.01
(4.86)
(37.36)
(29.23)
12.73
94.91
49.20
Tin
(50.00)
19,625.00
(0.25)
0.01
0.54
(4.50)
(4.24)
(7.45)
15.38
21,945.00
17,000.00
Nickel
(190.00)
8,820.00
(2.11)
(0.34)
0.23
(5.77)
(13.23)
(11.98)
(5.01)
12,145.00
8,680.00
Copper
(67.00)
5,657.00
(1.17)
(0.07)
(1.05)
(0.44)
(3.79)
2.19
21.81
6,204.00
4,582.00
Gold
2.60
1,244.70
0.21
(0.83)
(2.32)
(0.71)
(0.14)
8.23
(2.06)
1,377.50
1,124.70
Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg
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DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The v iews expressed in this research accurately ref lect the personal views of the analyst(s) about th e subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or v iews in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is f or information only and f or the use of the recipient. It is not to be reprod uced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this repo rt may not be suitable f or all investors. Moreover, although the inf ormation contained herein has been obtained from sources believ ed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserv ed by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
