Economic Outlook
Source : IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2021
World Economic Growth Projection
(Percent Change)
-3,1
-4,5
-2,1 5,9
5,2
6,4
4,9 4,5 5,1
2020 2021 2022 Global Economy Advanced Economies Emerging Market &
Developing Economies
World Economic Growth Projection
Source: World Bank , Global Economic Prospects, June 2021 Real GDP
(Percent change previous year)
Percentage point differences from January 2021
projections
2018 2019 2020e 2021f 2022f 2023f 2021f 2022f
World 3,2 2,5 -3,5 5,6 4,3 3,1 1,5 0,5
Advanced economies 2,3 1,6 -4,7 5,4 4,0 2,2 2,1 0,5
United States 3,0 2,2 -3,5 6,8 4,2 2,3 3,3 0,9
Euro area 1,9 1,3 -6,6 4,2 4,4 2,4 0,6 0,4
Japan 0,6 0,0 -4,7 2,9 2,6 1,0 0,4 0,3
Emerging market and developing economies 4,6 3,8 -1,7 6,0 4,7 4,4 0,8 0,4
East Asia and Pacific 6,5 5,8 1,2 7,7 5,3 5,2 0,3 0,1
China 6,8 6,0 2,3 8,5 5,4 5,3 0,6 0,2
Thailand 4,2 2,3 -6,1 2,2 5,1 4,3 -1,8 0,4
Europe and Central Asia 3,5 2,7 -2,1 3,9 3,9 3,5 0,6 0,1
Russian Federation 2,8 2,0 -3,0 3,2 3,2 2,3 0,6 0,2
Turkey 3,0 0,9 1,8 5,0 4,5 4,5 0,5 -0,5
Latin America and the Caribbean 1,8 0,9 -6,5 5,2 2,9 2,5 1,4 0,1
Brazil 1,8 1,4 -4,1 4,5 2,5 2,3 1,5 0,0
Argentina -2,6 -2,1 -9,9 6,4 1,7 1,9 1,5 -0,2
Middle East and North Africa 0,6 0,6 -3,9 2,4 3,5 3,2 0,3 0,3
Saudi Arabia 2,4 0,3 -4,1 2,4 3,3 3,2 0,4 1,1
Iran, Islamic Rep.3 -6,0 -6,8 1,7 2,1 2,2 2,3 0,6 0,5
South Asia 6,4 4,4 -5,4 6,8 6,8 5,2 3,6 3,0
India3 6,5 4,0 -7,3 8,3 7,5 6,5 2,9 2,3
Bangladesh2 7,9 8,2 2,4 3,6 5,1 6,2 2,0 1,7
Sub-Saharan Africa 2,7 2,5 -2,4 2,8 3,3 3,8 0,0 -0,2
Nigeria 1,9 2,2 -1,8 1,8 2,1 2,4 0,7 0,3
South Africa 0,8 0,2 -7,0 3,5 2,1 1,5 0,2 0,4
Source : OECD, Economic Outlook, September 2021
World Economic Growth Projection
(Percent Change)
-3,4
-6,5
-3,1
5,7 5,3 6,1
4,5 4,6 5,1
2020 2021 2022
World Euro Area G20
New Confirmed COVID-19 Deaths
(Persons, seven-day moving average)
Source : Our World in Data; and IMF staff calculations The pandemic began resurging over the summer
Drivers of Global Growth
(Quarter-over-quarter growth contributions, percentage points)
Source : Haver Analytics; and IMF staff calculations Supply disruptions are weighing on private investment
Global Activity Indicators
(Three-month moving average, annualized percent change for industrial production; deviations from 50 for PMIs)
Source : CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; Haver Analytics; Markit Economics; and IMF staff calculations
Higher-frequency indicators point to softening momentum
The Great Vaccination Divide
((Percent of population)
Source : Our World in Data; and IMF staff calculations.
Progress in vaccinations against COVID-19 remains highly unequal across the world
Fiscal Stance, 2020–2022
(Change in structural primary fiscal balance, percent of potential GDP)
Source : IMF staff estimates.
Fiscal tightening is already under way in emerging market and developing economies and will pick up in advanced economies as well in 2022.
Source : International Labour Organization; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; and IMF staff calculations.
Labor Markets, by Economy and Worker Groups
(Average percent difference from 2019:Q4 to 2021:Q1)
Source : Consensus Economics; Haver Analytics; and IMF staff calculations.
Inflation Trends
(Three-month moving average; annualized percent change)
Headline inflation has picked up on average, with advanced economies seeing a sharper rise. Core inflation has also increased, but more moderately.
Source : Sources: Haver Analytics; and IMF staff calculations
US Average Hourly Earnings: Overall and Selected Sectors
(Annualized percent change of three-month moving average)
Wages in the United States are rising, markedly in sectors hit harder by the pandemic
Sources : Bloomberg Finance L.P.; IMF, Primary Commodity Price System; Kpler; Refinitiv Datastream; and IMF staff estimates.
Commodity Market Development
Source : Haver Analytics; and IMF staff calculations.
Rising Pressure on Consumer Food Prices
(Percent)
US Economic Data
GDP Annual Growth Rate
(%)
Manufacturing PMI
Source: Trading Economics
Unemployment Rate
(%)
Inflation Rate
(% )
US Economic Data
Interest Rate
(%)
Balance of Trade
(USD Million)
USD Current Account to GDP
(%)
Source: Trading Economics
China Economic Data
GDP Annual Growth Rate
(%)
Manufacturing PMI
Source: Trading Economics
Unemployment Rate
(%)
Inflation Rate
(% )
China Economic Data
Interest Rate
(%)
Balance of Trade
(USD Million)
USD/CNY Current Account to GDP
(%)
Source: Trading Economics
Japan Economic Data
GDP Annual Growth Rate
(%)
Manufacturing PMI
Source: Trading Economics
Unemployment Rate
(%)
Inflation Rate
(% )
Japan Economic Data
Interest Rate
(%)
Balance of Trade
(USD Million)
USD/JPY Current Account to GDP
(%)
Source: Trading Economics
Euro Area Economic Data
GDP Annual Growth Rate
(%)
Manufacturing PMI
Source: Trading Economics
Unemployment Rate
(%)
Inflation Rate
(% )
Euro Area Economic Data
Interest Rate
(%)
Balance of Trade
(USD Million)
EUR/USD Current Account to GDP
(%)
Source: Trading Economics
Indonesia Economic Data
GDP Annual Growth Rate
(%)
Manufacturing PMI
Source: Trading Economics
Unemployment Rate
(%)
Inflation Rate
(% )
Indonesia Economic Data
Interest Rate
(%)
Balance of Trade
(USD Million)
USD/IDR Current Account to GDP
(%)
Source: Trading Economics
Asumsi Dasar Ekonomi Makro RAPBN 2022
Source: Kemenkeu
Source: Kemenkeu
Postur RAPBN 2022
Dengan fleksibilitas dalam mengantisipasi ketidakpastian
Pendapatan Negara
Belanja
Negara Defisit Anggaran
(868)
Pembiayaan Anggaran
868
Source : IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2021
IMF
2021 2022
3,2% 5,9%
2021 2022
3,7% 5,2%
2021 2022
3,7% 4,9%
Indonesia Economic Growth Projection
(Percent Change)
Indonesia Economic Challenges 2022
Source: FAC Research
Eskalasi Covid-19 &
Mutasi Virus Tapering The Fed
Gap Infrastruktur Masih Tinggi
Terganggunya
Global Supply Chain Technology and Climate change
Tidak Meratanya Pemulihan Ekonomi
Antar Sektor Krisis Energy Rendahnya Daya
Saing Produktivitas
Source: FAC Research
Peningkatan Daya Saing Investasi &
Ekspor
Penanganan Covid- 19 Berjalan Baik Akselerasi
Pemulihan Ekonomi
Logistik Semakin Efisien Pembiayaan
Semakin Murah
& Inovatif
Pendapatan Negara Berpotensi Naik
Ekonomi Digital Tumbuh Cepat
Indonesia's Economic Opportunities 2022
Reformasi Struktural Berlanjut
Equity Outlook
Indonesia 10,24
Malaysia -3,71
Philippines -1,19
Singapore
12,97 Thailand 11,89
Vietnam 30,84
Australia 11,51
China 2,14
India 24,50
Japan 5,28
South Korea 3,38 USA 16,74
Germany 13,79
Russia 26,62
UK 11,19
Source: IDX, 29 Oktober 2021
Stock Market Index Performance
(YTD %)
Energy 27,79
Basic Materials -3,11
Industrials 16,37
Consumer Non-Cyclicals -12,77
Consumer Cyclicals 14,69 Healthcare
7,15
Financials 22
Properties -9,4
Technology 744,4
Infrastructures
14,4Transportations 26,94
Source: IDX, 29 Oktober 2021
Sectoral Index Performance
(YTD %)
• IHSG sempat membentuk level terendah di 3912 pada 24 Maret 2020 yang disebabkan kekhawatiran dampak dari pandemi covid-19. Level tersebut merupakan level terendah IHSG sejak 2012.
• Target optimistic IHSG 2022 berada di level 7200, didorong pemulihan ekonomi seiring penurunan covid-19, suku bunga yang rendah, reformasi structural berlanjut, membaiknya harga komoditas, dan akselerasi digital ekonomi.
• Risk : Tapering The Fed, terganggunya supply chain, dan menguatnya USD.
JCI Projection 2022
Chart 30/11/2020
Source: FAC Research
Leading Sectoral Industry Outlook 2022
Sektor Sub Sektor Sentimen
Energy Coal Production
• Permintaan (China, Kanada, India, Eropa) batu bara untuk pembangkit tenaga listrik masih tinggi
• Cuaca buruk berpengaruh pada menurunnya kapasitas produksi produsen batu bara
Basic Materials
Basic Chemicals • Naiknya harga Amonia dunia
• Permintaan kebutuhan petrokimia semakin tinggi
Construction Materials
• Konsumsi semen berpotensi naik seiring pemulihan ekonomi nasional
• Anggaran infrastruktur 2022 masih tinggi (Rp384,8 triliun) Diversified Metals
&
Minerals
• Permintaan metals & minerals tinggi, namun terkendala supplay chain disruption
• Adanya tekanan pada tingkat produksi
Industrials
Multi-sector Holdings
• Akselerasi digital mendorong pemulihan ekonomi lebih cepat
• Adanya diskon pajak penjualan atas barang mewah (PPnBM) 100% untuk mobil kapasitas dibawah 1.500 cc
• APBN 2022 untuk Kesehatan masih tinggi yakni Rp255,3 triliun
• PMI Manufaktur Indonesia dalam mode ekspansi
Source: FAC Research
Sektor Sub Sektor Sentimen
Consumer Non- Cyclicals
Supermarkets
&
Convenience Store
• PPKM semakin longgar seiring semakin terkendalinya Covid-19
• Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen semakin membaik, seiring optimisme pemulihan ekonomi
Processed Foods • Membaiknya kondisi ekonomi seiring perkembangan vaksin Covid-19
• Cost logistic semakin murah & efisien
Plantations
&
Crops
• Penurunan produksi dari Malaysia menjadi 18 juta ton 2021, terendah sejak 2016
• Peningkatan permintaan cpo untuk bahan bakar nabati (biofuel)
• Terganggunya supplay chain mendorong kenaikan harga (permintaan tinggi)
• Peningkatan komponen produksi biodiesel cpo dari B30 menjadi B40
• Wacana pemerintah untuk menghentikan ekspor cpo dan mendorong hilirisasi sumber daya alam
Consumer
Cyclicals Broadcasting
• Shifting menonton movie secara over the top (OTT) dibandingkan secara konvensional
• Meningkatnya content production untuk digital channel
• Meningkatnya jumlah pembaca news pada online portal
• Akselerasi digital dapat menekan cost production
Leading Sectoral Industry Outlook 2022
Source: FAC Research
Sektor Sub Sektor Sentimen
Consumer Cyclicals
Electronics Retail
• Peningkatan kebutuhan elektronik untuk Work From Home, Remote Working, School From Home, etc
• Indonesia menjadi salah satu pengguna smartphone terbesar di dunia
• Tren perkembangan ekonomi digital yang positif Healthcare Healthcare
Providers
• APBN 2022 sektor Kesehatan tetap tinggi yakni mencapai Rp255,3 triliun
• Masyarakat semakin sadar akan pentingnya Kesehatan
Financials
Banks
• OJK memproyeksikan penyaluran kredit 2022 meningkat 9,27%
menjadi Rp544,37 triliun
• Kebijakan relaksasi restrukturisasi kredit perbankan diperpanjang hingga Maret 2023 untuk menjaga momentum pemulihan ekonomi
• Semakin luasnya penggunaan QRIS (QR Code Indonesian Standard) dalam kegiatan ekonomi
Consumer Financing
• Perbaikan kondisi ekonomi pasca terkendalinya Covid-19 mendorong kebutuhan pembiayaan masyarakat meningkat
• Relaksasi kredit pembiayaan meningkatkan konsumsi masyarakat
• Meningkatnya permintaan pembiayaan mobil & motor bekas
Technology Computer Hardware
• Banyak perusahaan melakukan transformasi digital ke revolusi industri 4.0
• Adanya tren remote work meningkatkan penggunaan perangkat keras dan perangkat lunak TIK
• Terus berkembangnya bisnis e-commer, game & e-sport
Leading Sectoral Industry Outlook 2022
Source: FAC Research
Sektor Sub Sektor Sentimen
Infrastructures
Heavy Constructions
&
Civil Engineering
• APBN 2022 untuk infrastruktur mencapai Rp384,8 triliun
• Potensi proyek ibu kota baru Indonesia mencapai Rp466 triliun
• Terkendalinya covid-19, mendorong normalisasi aktifitas pembangunan proyek infrastruktur
• Restrukturisasi utang & divestasi toll mendorong penyehatan keuangan perusahaan
Integrated Telecommunic
ation Service
• Meningkatnya kebutuhan paket data untuk bisnis, edukasi, & sosial media
• Banyak perusahaan melakukan transformasi bisnisnya ke digital
• Semakin meningkatnya kebutuhan Data Center & Cloude
• Semakin meningkatnya kebutuhan Fixed Broadband untuk Work From Home, Remote Working, School From Home, etc
Transportation
&
Logistic
Road Transportation
• Terus tumbuhnya bisnis e-comer di Indonesia
• Mobilitas semakin cepat seiring terkendalinya covid-19 di Indonesia
• Logistik semakin efisien seiring masifnya pembangunan infrastruktur
Leading Sectoral Industry Outlook 2022
Source: FAC Research
Saham Pilihan 2022
Source: FAC Research (5 November 2021)
Sektor Sub Sektor Kode Price (Rp) PER (X) PBV (X)
Target Price Industri Emiten Industri Emiten
Energy Coal Production
HRUM 7.625 1,72 28,79 1,90 3,35 9.500
PTBA 2.650 1,72 4,80 1,90 1,47 3.000
INDY 1.730 1,72 25,89 1,90 0,89 2.150
Basic Materials
Basic Chemicals ESSA 322 22 -16,21 1,71 1,86 450
AGII 1.465 22 19,53 1,71 1,29 2.000
Construction Materials
INTP 12.700 22 39,85 1,71 2,05 15.800
SMGR 9.900 22 31,74 1,71 1,71 14.200
Diversified Metals &
Minerals
ANTM 2.360 22 24,44 1,71 2,86 3.000
INCO 4.810 22 20,37 1,71 1,58 6.400
TINS 1.565 22 21,58 1,71 2,22 2.400
Industrials Multi-sector Holdings ASII 5.925 12 12,01 0,88 1,44 8.500
EMTK 1.975 18 417,51 11,5 5,67 2.900
Source: FAC Research
Saham Pilihan 2022
(5 November 2021)
Sektor Sub Sektor Kode Price (Rp) PER (X) PBV (X) Target
Price Industri Emiten Industri Emiten
Consumer NonCyclicals
Supermarkets
&
Convenience Store
AMRT 1.195 29 29,08 4,15 6,28 1.530
Processed Foods
ICBP 8.800 9,08 15,93 2,36 3,13 11.700
INDF 6.250 9,08 7,99 2,36 1,20 7.700
MYOR 2.430 9,08 41,67 2,36 5,02 3.000
Plantations & Crops
AALI 10.875 9,08 10,68 2,36 1,04 15.000 DSNG 585 9,08 11,18 2,36 0,97 900
SIMP 496 9,08 17,91 2,36 0,53 630
Consumer Cyclicals
Broadcasting
SCMA 410 19 21,36 4,66 6,95 600
MNCN 945 19 5,96 4,66 0,89 1.500
Electronics Retail
ERAA 625 18 8,92 3,95 1,75 900
Source: FAC Research
Saham Pilihan 2022
(5 November 2021)
Sektor Sub Sektor Kode Price (Rp) PER (X) PBV (X) Target Price Industri Emiten Industri Emiten
Healthcare Healthcare Providers MIKA 2.260 29 27,35 4,58 6,25 2.600
SAME 452 29 39,42 4,58 1,92 600
Financials
Banks
BBCA 7.450 22 29,69 4,03 4,64 8.500
BBNI 6.950 22 12,55 4,03 1,08 8.300
BBRI 4.240 22 25,08 4,03 2,32 5.000
BMRI 7.100 22 12,92 4,03 1,69 8.200
BRIS 2.080 22 28,42 4,03 3,55 3.000
Consumer Financing BFIN 1.020 27 15,34 1,93 2,27 1.600
Technology Computer Hardware MTDL 3.650 38 19,13 2,34 3,45 4.500
Infrastructures
Heavy Constructions
& Civil Engineering
WIKA 1.285 23 69,09 2,20 0,84 2.000
WSKT 925 23 40,73 2,20 1,61 1.500
PTPP 1.205 23 43,30 2,20 0,70 1.800
ADHI 1.085 23 233,28 2,20 0,70 1.500
Integrated Telecommunication
Service
TLKM 3.770 21 15,00 2,58 3,80 4.500
Transportation
& Logistic Road Transportation ASSA 3.320 7,14 110,40 0,95 5,67 4.000
Source: FAC Research
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