Jumat, 5 Maret 2021
L A P O R A N H A R I A N
Daily Report is also available in BNI Sekuritas website : www.bnisekuritas.co.id
RESEARCH
Equity
LAPORAN RISET
BBNI: An Attractive Valuation What’s New?
The market expects BNI’s net profit to grow the fastest among the Big-4 banks in the next two consecutive years due to the low base in FY20. BNI’s valuation is currently the lowest amongst the Big-4 banks and post the kitchen-sinking, BNI aims to achieve 16% ROE in FY23F.
Key Highlights:
Market expects BNI’s net profit to grow the fastest among the big-4 banks for the next two consecutive years, at 119.5% CAGR FY20-22F due to the low base in FY20.
Expecting a solid turnaround story post the kitchen-sinking, management sees a 16% ROE in FY23F (vs. FY20: 2.9%, FY19: 14.0%).
An attractive valuation, trading at 0.9x forward P/Bk, 64% discount to BRI and 37% discount to BMRI.
Analyst: Posmarito Pakpahan ([email protected])
RINGKASAN BERITA
ADRO membukukan laba bersih sebesar Rp2 triliun
pada 2020. PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) membukukan
laba bersih sebesar USD146,93 juta pada 2020 atau Rp2,07 triliun. Pada laporan keuangan per Desember 2020, manajemen ADRO menuliskan laba tahun berjalan yang dapat diatribusikan kepada pemilik entitas induk senilai USD146,93 juta. Nilai laba bersih itu anjlok 63,65% year on year (YoY) dari laba bersih 2019 sebesar USD404,19 juta. Sementara, ADRO membukukan pendapatan sebesar USD2,53 miliar atau Rp35,07 triliun. Pencapaian itu turun 27% dari tahun 2019 sebesar USD3,46 miliar, terutama karena penurunan 18% YoY pada harga jual rata-rata (ASP) dan penurunan 9% YoY pada volume penjualan batu bara. Presiden Direktur dan CEO ADRO, Garibaldi Thohir menyampaikan bahwa perusahaan mencatat penurunan 6% YoY pada volume produksi menjadi 54,53 juta ton. Kondisi makro dan industri yang sulit akibat pandemi COVID-19 memberikan tekanan yang besar terhadap permintaan batu bara dan harga batu bara global pada tahun 2020. "Walaupun pemulihan ekonomi diperkirakan akan berdampak positif terhadap batu bara pada tahun 2021, ADRO akan terus berfokus pada keunggulan operasional dan langkah-langkah efisiensi, dan tetap waspada karena ketidakpastian pemulihan ekonomi," jelasnya. (Bisnis Indonesia)
Global Indices Closing Change %Chg %Ytd P/E Americas INDU Index 30,924.14 -345.95 -1.11 1.04 27.55 SPX Index 3,768.47 -51.25 -1.34 0.33 30.65 CCMP Index 12,723.47 -274.28 -2.11 (1.28) 69.11 IBOV Index 112,690.20 1506.2 1.35 (5.32) 31.47 EMEA UKX Index 6,650.88 -24.59 -0.37 2.95 127.58 CAC Index 5,830.65 0.59 0.01 5.03 54.97 DAX Index 14,056.34 -23.69 -0.17 2.46 47.81 IBEX Index 8,354.00 24.7 0.30 3.47 #N/A N/A FTSEMIB Index 23,093.10 46.33 0.20 3.87 3.88 AEX Index 657.67 -5.68 -0.86 5.29 #N/A N/A SMI Index 10,750.09 -21.79 -0.20 0.44 24.26 Asia / Pacific NKY Index 28,930.11 -628.99 -2.13 5.41 33.01 KOSPI Index 3,043.49 -39.5 -1.28 5.92 28.16 SHCOMP Index 3,503.49 -73.413 -2.05 0.88 18.40 HSI Index 29,236.79 -643.63 -2.15 7.37 15.36 TWSE Index 15,906.41 -305.32 -1.88 7.97 22.79 SENSEX Index 50,846.08 -598.57 -1.16 6.48 35.58 SET Index 1,534.11 -9.29 -0.60 5.85 32.81 PCOMP Index 6,882.49 -60.27 -0.87 (3.60) 28.90 KLCI Index 1,581.26 -7.19 -0.45 (2.82) 22.21 FSSTI Index 3,014.78 14.41 0.48 6.01 41.58 JCI Index 6,290.80 -85.958 -1.35 5.21 35.04 Description Last Previous %Chg Market Capitalization (IDR Trillion) 7,408.25 7,511.10 -1.37 Transaction Volume (Million Shares) 26,042.00 26,563.01 -1.96 Transaction Value (IDR Million) 13,287.00 11,621.04 14.34 Stocks Value (IDR) 510.21 437.49 16.62 Net Foreign (IDR Million) (17,696.75) 521,750.50 -103.39 Commodities Last Previous %Chg Nickel (US$/Ton) 17,417.00 18,672.00 -6.72 Copper (US$/Ton) 9,101.50 9,170.50 -0.75 Tins (US$/Ton) 24,100.00 24,300.00 -0.82 Oil (US$/BBL) (*) 63.83 61.28 4.16 Gas (US$/MMBTU) 3.25 3.34 -2.60 Coal (US$/Ton) (**) 87.50 87.95 -0.51 CPO MALAYSIA(RM/ton) 3,860.00 3,878.50 -0.48 Gold (US$/Troy Ounce) 1,699.11 1,711.23 -0.71 JCI Sectors Performance Weighting (%) YTD Chg (%) 1D Chg (%)
JCI Index 100.00 5.21 0.02
Finance 40.31 11.95 1.59
Consumer Goods 13.60 -5.86 1.14
Infrastructure Utility and Transportation 10.59 5.05 -1.79 Basic Industry and Chemicals 10.86 2.88 -1.48 Trade Services and Investment 8.92 11.90 -1.67
Mining 6.49 2.13 -5.71
Construction Property and Real Estate 5.40 -0.73 2.80 Miscellaneous Industries 4.21 -4.81 0.69
Jumat, 5 Maret 2021
L A P O R A N H A R I A N
RESEARCH
Equity
Akumulasi Beli/-Jual Bersih Asing
Nilai Tukar USD/IDR dan IHSG
Pergerakan IHSG
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 10 /1 /2 02 0 10 /7 /2 020 10 /1 3/2020 10 /1 9/2020 10 /2 3/2020 11 /3 /2 020 11 /9 /2 020 11 /1 3/2020 11 /1 9/2020 11 /2 5/2020 12 /1 /2 020 12 /7 /2 020 12 /1 4/20 20 12 /1 8/2020 12 /2 8/2020 1/5/ 20 21 1/11 /2 021 1/15 /2 021 1/21 /2 021 1/27 /2 021 2/2/ 20 21 2/8/ 20 21 2/15 /2 021 2/19 /2 021 2/25 /2 02 1 3/3/ 20 21Accumulation JCI Index
13,000 13,500 14,000 14,500 15,000 15,500 16,000 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 10/1/2020 11/1/2020 12/1/2020 1/1/2021 2/1/2021 3/1/2021
JCI Index USDIDR
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
Oct-20 Oct-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Jan-21 Feb-21 Feb-21
Jumat, 5 Maret 2021
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Equity
TARGET HARGA SAHAM
Market Weighting EPS Growth PER PBV PEG DER (x) ROE (%) Total Return % of Free Rec TP (Rp/share) Last Potential Capitalization (Bn) (%) 1 Year FY18F FY18F Ratio 1 Year (Current) Float Shares 2020 2020 Price Upside
Banking
BBCA IJ Equity 828,408 14.57 11.00 22.26 3.82 2.02 6.97 15.13 6.51 44.88 BUY 34,200 33,600 1.79% BBNI IJ Equity 111,892 1.97 13.39 8.88 1.27 0.66 53.54 2.82 -13.67 39.98 NOT RATED - 6,000 #VALUE! BBRI IJ Equity 587,026 10.32 11.16 11.49 2.00 1.03 68.12 9.24 12.80 43.22 HOLD 4,100 4,760 -13.87% BMRI IJ Equity 305,667 5.37 18.76 12.28 1.67 0.65 51.96 8.70 -12.37 37.95 BUY 7,250 6,550 10.69%
Cement
SMGR IJ Equity 66,433 1.17 5.88 20.62 1.46 3.51 67.19 8.40 0.42 48.99 BUY 11,000 11,200 -1.79%
Telecommunication
TLKM IJ Equity 332,849 5.85 4.07 17.49 3.95 4.30 44.42 18.76 -7.84 47.91 BUY 4,000 3,360 19.05% ISAT IJ Equity 31,245 0.55 -38.76 32.20 1.60 -0.83 215.44 -5.83 154.42 20.71 BUY 3,265 5,750 -43.22% EXCL IJ Equity 23,767 0.42 64.29 52.53 1.45 0.82 175.72 1.94 -11.92 33.60 BUY 3,500 2,220 57.66%
Automotive
ASII IJ Equity 225,696 3.97 6.86 16.45 2.02 2.40 40.66 10.65 -3.14 49.81 BUY 7,000 5,575 25.56%
Market Weighting EPS Growth PER PBV PEG DER (x) ROE (%) Total Return % of Free Rec TP (Rp/share) Current Potential
Capitalization (Bn) (%) 1 Year FY18F FY18F Ratio 1 Year (Current) Float Shares 2020 2020 Price Upside
Construction
WIKA IJ Equity 15,653 0.28 28.60 7.92 0.87 0.28 78.48 6.70 -3.37 34.94 BUY 1,400 1,745 -19.77% ADHI IJ Equity 4,914 0.09 48.50 7.37 0.87 0.15 153.96 5.44 80.11 48.99 BUY 840 1,380 -39.13% PTPP IJ Equity 9,889 0.17 11.70 8.06 1.03 0.69 104.84 3.45 41.99 48.95 BUY 1,175 1,595 -26.33% WSKT IJ Equity 19,411 0.34 17.28 6.03 1.54 0.35 237.92 -18.09 38.79 33.95 HOLD 775 1,430 -45.80% WTON IJ Equity 3,050 0.05 27.80 4.41 0.29 0.16 82.60 8.15 2.98 32.08 BUY 320 350 -8.57% WSBP IJ Equity 6,696 0.12 39.00 7.11 1.09 0.18 74.76 -12.46 27.45 32.98 UR UR 254 #VALUE!
Toll Road
JSMR IJ Equity 29,540 0.52 -9.68 18.53 2.22 -1.91 185.14 4.67 -15.25 24.39 BUY 5,300 4,070 30.22%
Property
BSDE IJ Equity 26,147 0.46 -20.00 6.90 0.98 -0.34 39.96 3.26 10.76 38.63 BUY 890 1,235 -27.94% PWON IJ Equity 27,933 0.49 18.69 12.13 2.17 0.65 26.51 8.14 3.57 31.29 HOLD 445 580 -23.28% SMRA IJ Equity 12,912 0.23 20.60 26.42 1.70 1.28 94.90 2.63 4.68 65.14 SELL 615 895 -31.28%
Market Weighting EPS Growth PER PBV PEG DER (x) ROE (%) Total Return % of Free Rec TP (Rp/share) Current Potential
Capitalization (Bn) (%) 1 Year FY18F FY18F Ratio 1 Year (Current) Float Shares 2020 2020 Price Upside
Agriculture
AALI IJ Equity 21,075 0.37 -16.32 12.33 1.08 -0.76 29.22 4.47 13.41 20.32 HOLD 8,300 10,950 -24.20% TBLA IJ Equity 4,968 0.09 n.a n.a n.a n.a 149.97 10.56 54.72 44.65 BUY 1,185 930 27.42%
Metal
ANTM IJ Equity 60,558 1.06 89.30 43.10 1.15 0.48 47.19 2.41 301.86 34.95 BUY 900 2,520 -64.29% INCO IJ Equity 54,898 0.97 62.00 22.96 21.32 0.37 0.00 4.18 103.87 20.49 BUY 4,500 5,525 -18.55% TINS IJ Equity 14,076 0.25 79.80 12.94 0.98 0.16 219.85 -19.73 200.00 35.00 BUY 1,200 1,890 -36.51%
Coal
PTBA IJ Equity 31,221 0.55 12.09 9.07 2.09 0.75 3.42 16.00 25.43 31.20 BUY 2,750 2,710 1.48%
Consumer
UNVR IJ Equity 256,559 4.51 9.80 44.14 54.08 4.50 80.51 140.20 -7.22 15.01 BUY 9,400 6,725 39.78% INDF IJ Equity 54,439 0.96 7.12 12.58 1.65 1.77 42.38 13.50 -9.88 49.92 BUY 9,200 6,200 48.39% ICBP IJ Equity 100,292 1.76 10.03 24.12 4.65 2.40 8.81 20.09 -19.62 19.47 BUY 11,800 8,600 37.21% GGRM IJ Equity 70,999 1.25 8.64 16.32 3.01 1.89 34.19 17.86 -28.73 23.78 BUY 56,000 36,900 51.76% HMSP IJ Equity 170,406 3.00 5.32 33.44 12.66 6.29 1.17 34.44 -12.60 7.50 HOLD 1,900 1,465 29.69%
Pharmaceutical
KLBF IJ Equity 72,891 1.28 4.52 24.14 4.14 5.34 4.89 16.18 24.23 42.55 HOLD 1,815 1,555 16.72% KAEF IJ Equity 18,439 0.32 22.20 21.00 4.01 0.95 111.92 -0.25 345.64 9.97 UR - 3,320 #VALUE!
Healthcare
MIKA IJ Equity 39,747 0.70 2.11 43.73 7.13 20.73 0.11 16.74 15.83 38.07 BUY 2,980 2,790 6.81%
Retail
ACES IJ Equity 26,926 0.47 16.84 25.05 5.66 1.49 0.00 17.88 3.44 40.03 SELL 1,400 1,570 -10.83% LPPF IJ Equity 3,414 0.06 8.08 13.41 7.33 1.66 664.33 -75.02 -59.50 69.83 SELL 1,250 1,300 -3.85% MAPI IJ Equity 13,778 0.24 68.20 23.10 2.97 0.34 25.69 -5.62 3.75 43.97 HOLD 690 830 -16.87% RALS IJ Equity 5,180 0.09 13.00 20.48 2.57 1.58 0.00 -1.52 -17.15 37.08 HOLD 590 730 -19.18%
Heavy Equipment
Jumat, 5 Maret 2021
L A P O R A N H A R I A N
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Equity
RESEARCH TEAM
Phone : +62 21 25543946 (Hunting) Fax : +62 21 57935831 Email : [email protected] Website : www.bnisekuritas.co.idDamhuri Nasution [email protected] Head of Research Division & Economist Ext. 3993
Kim Kwie Sjamsudin [email protected] Head of Equity Research Department Ext. 3997
(Strategy, Automotive, Cement, Infrastructure)
Ariawan [email protected] Head of Fixed Income Research Dept. Ext. 2098
(Fixed Income Market, Corporate & Government Bond) Andri Zakarias Siregar [email protected] Head of Technical Analysis Research Dept. Ext. 2054
(Market Strategy, Currency, Commodities, Bond & Stocks)
Maxi Liesyaputra [email protected] AVP Equity Analyst Ext. 3968
(Cement, Construction, Property, Precast Concrete)
Handri Thiono [email protected] Economist Ext. 2030
Ahmad Hapiz [email protected] Fixed Income Analyst Ext. 3978
(Fixed Income Market, Corporate & Government Bond) William Ardian Siregar [email protected] Equity Analyst Ext. 3986
(Consumer, Retail)
Posmarito Pakpahan [email protected] Equity Analyst Ext. 3981
(Banking, Telecommunication)
Firman Hidayat [email protected] Equity Analyst Ext. 2034
(Automotive, Coal, Metal, Heavy Equipment, Plantation) Erlangga Aditya Guntoro [email protected] Equity Analyst Ext. 2036
(Pharmaceutical, Healthcare, Toll Road)
R. Venia Allani Meissalina [email protected] Research Administrator Ext. 2050
Jumat, 5 Maret 2021
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Equity
EQUITY TEAM
CM : +62 21 25543946 (Hunting) Fax No : +62 21 57935831Reynard Poernawan ext. 3988 [email protected] Head of Equity Division Anthon Suryasaputra ext. 3973 [email protected] Head of Equity Sales Trading Teguh Hendro Karno ext. 3948 [email protected] Institutional Sales Trader Yulinda ext. 3950 [email protected] Institutional Sales Trader M. Rudi Riyanto ext. 3919 [email protected] Institutional Sales Trader Ardy Fardiansyah ext. 3969 [email protected] Institutional Sales Trader Entis Sutisman ext. 3951 [email protected] AVP Institutional Sales Ika Agustina ext. 2131 [email protected] Equity Sales
Evi nurhafiza ext. 3929 [email protected] Equity Sales
Jufrani Amsal ext. 3957 [email protected] Head of Channel Distribution Division Fahma Riniarti ext. 3917 [email protected] Head of Channel Development P. Sariningsih ext. 3984 [email protected] Head of Branch Supervision
Teuku Hafez ext. 2084 [email protected] Branch Manager Mangga Dua, Jakarta Hapsari ext. 2078 [email protected] Branch Manager Puri Indah, Jakarta Fadjar Harjo Suseno ext. 2111 [email protected] Branch Manager Central Park, Jakarta M. Yasrul ext. 2081 [email protected] Branch Manager Wisma Bumiputera Fahmi Lubis ext. 2079 [email protected] Branch Manager Bandung
Rifaat Annur ext. 2091 [email protected] Branch Manager Yogyakarta Agus Purwanto ext. 2090 [email protected] Branch Manager Solo Achmad Ridwan ext. 2088 [email protected] Branch Manager Surabaya Edith Febriana ext. 2082 [email protected] Branch Manager Malang Ni Nyoman Citasti ext. 2080 [email protected] Branch Manager Denpasar Nirmasari Nasution ext. 2083 [email protected] Branch Manager Medan Ari Magdalena ext. 2086 [email protected] Branch Manager Palembang Rini Wati ext. 2085 [email protected] Branch Manager Pekanbaru Susan J Mengko ext. 2102 [email protected] Branch Manager Manado Melisa ext. 2136 [email protected] Branch Manager Aceh Yuniar Fariza D ext. 2064 [email protected] Branch Manager Banjarmasin
RESEARCH
Equity
MAIN OFFICE - JAKARTA
PT BNI SEKURITAS
Sudirman Plaza, Indofood Tower 16th Floor, Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 76-78
Jakarta 12910, Indonesia Phone: (62-21) 25543946 (Hunting)
Fax: (62-21) 57935831 e-mail: [email protected] (General)
Website: http://www.bnisekuritas.co.id
JAKARTA - Mangga Dua
Pertokoan Mangga Dua Blok E4 No. 7 Jl. Mangga Dua Raya, Jakarta Utara Phone: (62-21) 6123804-5,62203890
Fax: (62-21) 6123806 e-mail: [email protected]
JAKARTA - Puri Indah
Komplek Ruko Sentra Niaga Puri Indah Blok T1 No.11-12 Kembangan Selatan Jakarta 11610
Phone: (62-21) 58357464 Fax: (62-21) 58357465 e-mail: [email protected]
JAKARTA - Central Park
Central Park, APL Tower Podomoro City Jl. Letjen S. Parman Kav 28, Tanjung Duren Selatan, Petamburan
Phone: (62-21) 29034215 Fax: (62-21) 29034216 email: [email protected]
JAKARTA - Wisma Bumiputera
Wisma Bumiputera Lt. 18 Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 75 Jakarta 12910
Phone: (62-21) 2523349 Fax: (62-21) 2523350 e-mail: [email protected] BANDUNG Jl. Perintis Kemerdekaan 3 Bandung - 40117 Phone: (62-22) 4213375 Fax: (62-22) 4220604 e-mail: [email protected] YOGYAKARTA
Jl. Laksda Adisucipto 137, Yogyakarta - 55282 Phone: (62-274) 581001-584032
Fax: (62-274) 584023 e-mail: [email protected]
SOLO
Jl. Honggo Wongso No. 24, Surakarta Phone: (62-271) 729667, 730525
Fax: (62-271) 729668 e-mail: [email protected]
SURABAYA
Jl. Gubernur Suryo No. 36, Surabaya Phone: (62-31) 5320912
Fax: (62-31) 5318425 e-mail: [email protected]
MALANG
Jl. Buring No. 58, Malang Phone: (62-341) 321214,321213,321430
Fax: (62-341) 356876 e-mail: [email protected]
DENPASAR
Komplek Pertokoan Diponegoro Megah Blok A5-6 Lantai 2 Jl. Diponegoro No. 100, Denpasar - Bali
Phone: (62-361) 264376, 2753389 Fax: (62-361) 229170 e-mail: [email protected]
MEDAN
Jl. Pemuda No. 12, Medan - 20151 Phone: (62-61) 4579616
Fax: (62-61) 4579656 e-mail: [email protected]
PALEMBANG
Jl. Jend. Sudirman 132, Palembang - 30126 Phone: (62-711) 361969
Fax: (62-711) 319663 e-mail: [email protected]
PEKANBARU
Jl. Riau, No. 124, Bank BNI Lt. 2, Pekanbaru Phone: (62-761) 46757, 839698
Fax: (62-761) 856279 e-mail: [email protected]
MANADO
BNI KLN Megamas, Lt. 3, Kawasan Mega Mas Blok I C1 Jl. Piere Tendean, No. 20, Manado
Phone: (62-431) 847256 Fax: (62-24) 847256 e-mail: [email protected]
ACEH
Kantor Cabang BNI Banda Aceh Lt.2 Jl. KH. Ahmad Dahlan No. 111, Banda Aceh
Phone: (62-651) 31109 Fax: (62-651) 31107
BANJARMASIN
Gd. Bank BNI Antasari Lt. 2 Jl. Pangeran Antasari No. 44 RT 008, Banjarmasin
Phone: (62-511) 3253735 Fax: (62-651) 3253754 e-mail: [email protected]
This document is not intended to be an offer, or a satisfaction of an offer, to buy or sell relevant securities (i.e. securities mentioned herein or of the same issuer and options, warrants or rights to or interest in any such securities). The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled from or arrived at in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made by BNI SEKURITAS or any other member of the BNI Group, including any other member of the BNI Group from whom this document may be received, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. All opinions and estimates in this report constitute our judgment as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Dokumen ini tidak diperuntukan sebagai suatu penawaran, atau permohonan dari suatu penawaran, permintaan untuk membeli atau menjual efek dan segala hal yang berhubungan dengan efek (seperti efek yang disebutkan disini, atau dari emiten yang sama, dari waran atau hak memesan efek atau kepentingan lain dari efek tersebut). Seluruh informasi dan opini yang terdapat dalam dokumen ini dengan cara baik telah dihimpun dari atau berasal dari sumber-sumber yang dapat dipercaya dan diandalkan. Tidak ada pengatasnamaan atau jaminan, baik secara langsung maupun tidak langsung dari BNI SEKURITAS atau pun pihak-pihak lain dari Grup BNI, termasuk pihak-pihak lain dari Grup BNI dari mana dokumen ini dapat diperoleh, terhadap keakuratan atau kelengkapan dari informasi yang terdapat dalam dokumen ini. Seluruh pendapat dan perkiraan dalam laporan ini merupakan pertimbangan kami pada tanggal tertera dan dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan.
