Riset Saham Harian. Sentimen Negatif dari Pelemahan Bursa AS. Highlights. Samuel Equity Research 30 Oktober 2018

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Riset Saham Harian

Samuel Equity Research 30 Oktober 2018

www.samuel.co.id _{Page 1 of 8}

Sentimen Negatif dari Pelemahan Bursa AS

Bursa AS kembali melemah seiring kekhawatiran memanasnya perang dagang AS-China apabila negosiasi selanjutnya tidak membuahkan hasil. Adapula kekhawatiran akan kinerja sejumlah emiten yang kurang baik. IHSG ditutup turun 0,52% ke posisi 5.754 kemarin dengan dana asing tercatat net buy Rp 150 miliar di pasar reguler. Hari ini IHSG berpeluang melanjutkan pelemahannya seiring penurunan bursa AS dan sejumlah bursa saham pagi ini. Rupiah cukup stabil dan saat ini diperdagangkan pada Rp 15.223 per dolar AS.

Kinerja emiten 9M18 berpeluang mewarnai pergerakan IHSG. Hasil kinerja emiten hingga saat ini relatif mixed, dimana bank-bank besar relatif masih inline dengan ekspektasi pasar. UNTR membukukan kinerja yang kuat, HMSP relatif inline, sementara TLKM agak di bawah estimasi pasar.

Highlights

 Sektor CPO: (1) Selangkah Lagi, Mandatori Biodiesel Bisa 100% (2) Ekspor Minyak Sawit diprediksi Gagal Capai Target

 ASII: 9M18 diatas ekspektasi 9M18E  UNVR: Penjualan relatif flat

 AKRA: Laba bersih 9M18 +28% yoy, inline dengan SSI (71%) diatas estimasi konsensus (94%)

 ADHI: Laba bersih 9M18A 12% diatas 9M18E : 5,754.6 : -30.3 (-0.52%) : 5,025 Mn shrs : 4,054 Bn rupiah Last Close +/- % HMSP 3,950 30 0.8 ASII 7,500 75 1.0 TCPI 5,800 600 11.5 TLKM 3,660 30 0.8 BBCA 23,125 -475 -2.0 BBRI 2,950 -40 -1.3 UNTR 32,500 -900 -2.7 CPIN 5,325 -175 -3.2

Foreign Net Buy / Sell (Regular Market)

Net Buy (Rpbn) Net Sell (Rpbn)

ASII 178 UNTR 42 BMRI 42 ITMG 32 SCMA 27 BSDE 18 HMSP 23 ADRO 12 TLKM 12 SRIL 10 Money Market Last Close +/- % USD/IDR 15,223 7.0 0.0 JIBOR O/N 5.7 0.0

Dual Listing Securities

Last Close +/- % TLKM 23.7 -0.4 -1.5 ISAT 49.5 0.7 1.4 EIDO 21.2 -0.5 -2.1 Global Indices Last Close +/- % DJIA 24,443 -245 -1.0 S&P 500 2,641 -17 -0.7 Euro Stoxx 3,155 20 0.6 MSCI World 1,976 -6 -0.3 Nikkei 21,150 -35 -0.2 Hang Seng 24,812 94 0.4 Commodities Last Close +/- % Brent Oil 77 -0.5 -0.7 CPO Malay 2,187 39.0 1.8 Coal (ICE) 108 0.0 0.0 Nickel 11,700 -149.0 -1.3 Tin 19,172 -173.0 -0.9 Changes Changes Leading Movers Lagging Movers Changes Changes Changes Market Value Market Activity Tuesday, 30 Oct 2018 Market Index Index Movement Market Volume

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Riset Saham Harian

30 Oktober 2018

Sektor CPO: (1) Selangkah Lagi, Mandatori Biodiesel Bisa 100% (2) Ekspor Minyak Sawit diprediksi Gagal Capai Target

 Ketua Umum Asosiasi Produsen Biofuel Indonesia (Aprobi) Master Parulian Tumanggor mengatakan, berdasarkan hasil monitoring realisasi B20 hingga akhir pekan lalu telah mencapai 92%. Optimis hingga akhir Oktober, implementasi B20 akan 100%

 Namun masih ada beberapa kendala seperti, masalah logistik di lapangan dan juga proses distribusi biodiesel ke masing-masing daerah yang tidak sesuai dengan purchase order (PO) yang memiliki jangka waktu 14 hari.

 Aprobi telah mengusulkan kepada Presiden Joko Widodo agar penerapan B30 bisa dilakukan mulai April 2019 mendatang. Pertimbangannya adalah, produksi CPO di 2019 diperkirakan meningkat menjadi 42 juta ton.

 Di berita lain, Gabungan Pengusaha Kelapa Sawit Indonesia (GAPKI) memperkirakan ekspor minyak sawit mentah (crude palm oil/CPO) tahun ini diprediksi hanya mencapai 31,05 juta ton, atau flat yoy . Jumlah itu juga di bawah Gapki sebanyak 34 juta ton.  Hingga 1H18 ekspor Indonesia mengalami penurunan sebesar 6% yoy hanya mencapai

14,2 juta. sementara tariff bea masuk tinggi dari india juga mempengaruhi jumlah ekspor yaitu turun 34% menjadi 2,5 juta.

 Sementara ekspor ke Uni Eropa di 1H18 turun 12% yoy menjadi 2,39 juta ton. Penurunan kinerja ekspor p juga terjadi di beberapa negara di benua Afrika, rata-rata sebesar 10%. (Kontan & Investor Daily) CPO: Neutral

ASII: 9M18 diatas ekspektasi 9M18E

Comment:

 Ditengah penurunan harga saham dan appetite pasar yang cenderung stagnan, ASII membukukan kinerja 9M18A jauh diatas ekspektasi kami.

 Pendapatan dan laba bersih di 3Q18 +9.9%QoQ, +19.4%YoY dan +23.8%QoQ,

38.8%YoY, sedangkan pada 9M18 +16.4%YoY dan +20.6%YoY (laba bersih), mencapai 89.2% dan 78.7% angka konsensus untuk pendapatan dan 88.2%, 80.5% (konsensus) untuk pencapaian laba bersih di 9M18.

 Di 9M18A baik pendapatan dan lana tercatat diatas ekspektasi kami sebesar 20.9% dan 19.2%.

 Pertumbuhan laba berish tertinggi tercatat pada segmen Heavy Equipment, Mining, Construction and Energi sebesar +60%YoY, sementara segmen automotive, ditengah pesimisme pasar, masih mampu menujukan kinerja solidnya naik +7%YoY.

 FY19E kami masih memiliki optimisme pada ASII yang potensi kembali bertumbuh positif YoY didorong oleh kontinuitas peningkatan kinerja segmen automotive, terutama

berlanjutnya pertumbuhan solid UNTR ditengah ekspektasi stabilnya harga batu bara dan dampak positif akuisisi tambang Martabe.

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Riset Saham Harian

30 Oktober 2018

(in Rp bn) 3Q17 2Q18 3Q18 QoQ YoY 9M17 9M18 YoY vs 918E SSI vs FY18E SSI vs FY18E Cons Sales 52,194 56,732 62,327 9.9 19.4 150,225 174,881 16.4 120.9% 89.2% 78.7% COGS (41,195) (44,826) (48,881) 9.0 18.7 (119,552) (138,179) 15.6 Gross Profit 10,999 11,906 13,446 12.9 22.2 30,673 36,702 19.7 Operating Expense -

-Mkt & Selling Exp (2,586) (2,335) (2,471) 5.8 (4.4) (7,303) (7,055) (3.4) G&A Expense (2,835) (3,110) (3,238) 4.1 14.2 (8,505) (9,445) 11.1

Operating income 5,578 6,461 7,737 19.7 38.7 14,865 20,202 35.9

Other non-oper Inc (exp) 1,993 2,229 2,814 26.2 41.2 6,614 6,983 5.6

Pre-tax Income 7,571 8,690 10,551 21.4 39.4 21,479 27,185 26.6 Tax 1,518 1,830 2,228 21.7 46.8 4,091 5,668 38.5 Minority interest 1,234 1,456 1,634 12.2 32.4 3,229 4,444 37.6 Net Income 4,819 5,404 6,689 23.8 38.8 14,159 17,073 20.6 119.2% 88.2% 80.5% EPS 119 133 165 23.8 38.8 350 422 20.6 Profitability Operating margin 10.7% 11.4% 12.4% 1.0% 1.7% 9.9% 11.6% 1.7% Pre-tax margin 14.5% 15.3% 16.9% 1.6% 2.4% 14.3% 15.5% 1.2% Net margin 9.2% 9.5% 10.7% 1.2% 1.5% 9.4% 9.8% 0.3%

 Mempertahankan BUY ASII, SOTP TP Rp8.550/saham, merefleksikan 16.8xP/E19E, 2.4xPBV19E.

UNVR: Penjualan relatif flat

 Penjualan 9M18 tercatat tumbuh 1,0%yoy menjadi Rp 31,5 triliun. Namun, laba kotor turun 1,6% menjadi Rp 15,8 triliun. Terlihat ada efisiensi pada opex dan ada laba dari penjualan aset Spreads Rp 2,8 triliun, sehingga laba operasionalnya naik 39,1%. Laba bersih tercatat tumbuh 39,7% menjadi Rp 7,3 triliun. (Company)

Comment:

 Tanpa laba penjualan Spreads, laba operasional 9M18 relatif flat (+0,0%yoy). Laba bersih tersebut mencerminkan 93% dari konsensus atau 95% dari estimasi kami untuk FY18. Berdasarkan estimasi kami, tanpa penjualan Spreads, laba bersih itu mencerminkan 66% dari konsensus atau 68% dari estimasi kami untuk FY18, sehingga relatif di bawah ekspektasi. UNVR: Hold; 19E’ PE: 40.0x, PBV: 50.1x; TP: 49,900

AKRA: Laba bersih 9M18 +28% yoy, inline dengan SSI (71%) diatas estimasi konsensus (94%)

 AKRA mencatat laba bersih 9M18 naik 28% yoy ke Rp 1,3 triliun ditopang oleh penjualan pabrik kimia Khalista China. Sementara EBIT tercatat turun 24% yoy ke Rp 701 miliar. Kenaikan beban pokok penjualan sebesar 30% yoy menggerus pertumbuhan pendapatan yang hanya tumbuh 25% yoy. Laba bersih tersebut inline dengan estimasi kami (71%) diatas estimasi konsensus (94%).

Comment:

Volume distribusi AKRA tercatat turun 7% qoq dan 4% yoy ke 463.890 kl. Berdasarkan keterangan manajemen, hal ini disebabkan oleh penerapan kebijakan B20 yang terkendala oleh aliran distribusi FAME, sehingga hal tersebut menghambat pertumbuhan

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Riset Saham Harian

30 Oktober 2018 www.samuel.co.id _{Page 4 of 8} 3Q17 2Q18 3Q18 QoQ (%) YoY (%) 9M17 9M18 YoY (%) vs 9M18 SSI vs FY18 SSI vs FY18 Cons Revenue 3,531 2,941 3,349 13.9 (5.1) 8,715 9,432 8.2 100.7% 47.8% 50.5% Cost of revenue (3,117) (2,449) (2,784) 13.7 (10.7) (7,703) (7,943) 3.1

Gross profit - before JV 414 492 565 15.0 36.6 1,012 1,489 47.1

Revenue fr JV 52 38 32 (16.4) (39.1) 119 71 -40.0

Gross profit - after JV 466 529 597 12.8 28.2 1,131 1,560 37.9

Operating expense (129) (166) (166) 0.1 28.5 (366) (456) 24.5

Operating income 336 363 431 18.6 28.1 765 1,104 44.3

Income before tax 176 246 241 (2.2) 36.6 461 674 46.1

Net income 74 139 123 (11.9) 66.5 205 336 63.6 112.0% 52.8% 42.3%

Gross margin 11.7 16.7 16.9 0.2 5.2 11.6 15.8 4.2 Gross margin - after JO 13.2 18.0 17.8 -0.2 4.6 13.0 16.5 3.6 Operating margin 9.5 12.4 12.9 0.5 3.3 8.8 11.7 2.9 Net margin 2.1 4.7 3.7 -1.1 1.6 2.4 3.6 1.2

volume distribusi. Dengan produsen batubara sebagai pembeli utama diesel AKRA, kami optimis volume distribusi dapat meningkat di 4Q18 seiring peningkatan produksi batubara di akhir tahun. (Investor Daily) AKRA: BUY, 19E’ PE: 9.8x, PBV: 1.4x TP Rp 6,000

ADHI: Laba bersih 9M18A 12% diatas 9M18E

Comment:

 Appetite pasar pada saham sektor konstruksi yang belum membaik ditengah ketidakpercayaan pada pertumbuhan laba bersih emiten konstruksi tidak sejalan dengan kinerja 9M18A.

 Pendapatan di periode tersebut masih mampu menunjukan pertumbuhan +8.2%YoY, dengan lonjakan laba bersih +63.6%YoY, mencapai 52.8% dan 42.3% dibandingkan dengan proyeksi kami dan konsensus. Di periode 9M18A, laba bersih melampaui ekspektasi 9M18E kami sebesar 11.9%.

 Di periode yang sama, kontrak baru tercatat sebesar Rp11.4tn atau 50% dari FY18E kami Rp22.8tn.

 Kami masih menyukai ADHI ditengah penantian pembayaran termin pengerjaan progress proyek LRT.

 Kemampuan menjaga asrus kas juga masih tercatat hingga 9M18, dimana penerimaan kas dari pelanggan naik signifikan menjadi Rp9.88tn vs Rp6.52tn di 9M17. Demikian pula dengan kenaikan pembayaran kepada suppliers dan beban lain sebesar Rp11.25tn dari Rp9.09tn.

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Riset Saham Harian

30 Oktober 2018

Stock Rec. JCI Wgt Last price YTD Chg TP Cons TP SSI PE PE PBV PBV ROE ROE

(%) (Rp) (%) (Rp) (Rp) 18E 19E 18E 19E 18E 19E

Banks BMRI BUY 4.6 6400 (20.0) 8143 8200 12.6 11.1 1.6 1.5 13.1% 13.4% BBCA HOLD 8.8 23125 5.6 25025 26250 22.6 20.6 3.8 3.3 16.9% 16.2% BBRI BUY 5.6 2950 (19.0) 3751 3800 11.4 10.2 2.0 1.7 17.2% 16.9% BBNI BUY 2.0 7075 (28.5) 8932 9050 8.9 7.6 1.2 1.1 13.7% 14.3% BBTN HOLD 0.3 2050 (42.6) 3083 2800 6.5 5.7 0.9 0.8 13.6% 13.9% BNLI BUY 0.2 460 (26.4) 592 610 23.0 15.3 0.6 0.6 2.6% 3.7% Average 14.2 11.8 1.7 1.5 12.8% 13.1% Consumer (Staples) ICBP BUY 1.6 8800 (1.1) 9709 10200 24.4 22.4 4.7 4.2 19.1% 18.6% INDF BUY 0.8 5650 (25.9) 8063 8400 10.7 9.7 1.5 1.3 13.6% 13.8% KLBF HOLD 1.0 1340 (20.7) 1419 1450 24.8 23.5 4.3 3.9 17.4% 16.7% UNVR HOLD 5.2 43950 (21.4) 45597 49900 43.2 40.0 55.1 50.1 127.7% 125.2% Average 25.8 23.9 16.4 14.9 44.4% 43.6% Cigarette HMSP SELL 7.2 3950 (16.5) 4118 3100 35.6 33.3 13.6 12.2 38.1% 36.5% GGRM BUY 2.2 73200 (12.6) 85828 83700 17.4 16.9 2.9 2.6 16.8% 15.3% Average 26.5 25.1 8.2 7.4 27.5% 25.9% Healthcare MIKA BUY 0.3 1400 (22.7) 1792 2050 27.3 22.5 4.1 3.3 14.9% 14.6% SILO HOLD 0.1 2400 (74.9) 3506 3250 35.5 30.7 0.5 0.4 1.4% 1.4% Average 31.4 26.6 2.3 1.9 8.2% 8.0% Poultry CPIN HOLD 1.4 5325 77.5 5692 5500 20.9 18.4 4.7 4.0 22.5% 21.6% JPFA BUY 0.4 2070 59.2 2741 2750 8.6 7.5 1.9 1.6 22.3% 21.2% MAIN BUY 0.0 1255 69.6 1567 1400 8.5 5.8 1.1 1.0 13.2% 16.7% Average 12.7 10.6 2.6 2.2 19.3% 19.8% Retail MAPI BUY 0.2 815 31.5 1020 930 27.2 17.3 3.4 2.8 12.3% 16.4% RALS BUY 0.1 1185 (1.3) 1578 1550 20.1 17.7 2.3 2.2 11.2% 12.2% ACES BUY 0.4 1380 19.5 1577 1550 24.6 20.9 6.7 5.7 27.3% 27.2% Average 24.0 18.6 4.1 3.6 17.0% 18.6%

Pulp and Paper

INKP HOLD 1.0 11750 117.6 22450 20000 8.2 6.7 1.2 1.0 15.0% 15.7% Media MNCN BUY 0.2 820 (36.2) 1309 1500 7.3 7.0 1.2 1.1 16.5% 15.8% SCMA HOLD 0.4 1640 (33.9) 2273 1960 13.3 10.4 4.8 3.7 36.3% 35.8% Average 10.3 8.7 3.0 2.4 26.4% 25.8% Telco EXCL BUY 0.4 2680 (9.5) 3715 3380 116.5 24.8 1.3 1.3 1.1% 5.1% ISAT BUY 0.2 2450 (49.0) 3626 7400 5.0 4.6 0.8 0.7 16.3% 16.2% TLKM HOLD 5.7 3660 (16.8) 4152 3700 19.0 18.9 3.7 3.5 19.7% 18.3% TOWR BUY 0.4 486 (39.3) 820 900 8.4 7.6 1.7 1.5 20.2% 19.2% Average 37.2 14.0 1.9 1.7 14.3% 14.7% Auto and HE ASII BUY 4.7 7500 (9.6) 8641 9400 15.0 13.4 2.2 2.0 14.7% 14.8% UNTR BUY 1.9 32500 (8.2) 42898 42000 12.4 10.2 2.3 2.1 18.9% 20.2% Average 13.7 11.8 2.3 2.0 16.8% 17.5% Aviation GIAA HOLD 0.1 202 (32.7) 281 295 148.0 14.6 0.4 0.3 0.3% 2.1%

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Riset Saham Harian

30 Oktober 2018 www.samuel.co.id _{Page 6 of 8} Property BSDE BUY 0.3 1090 (35.9) 1841 2350 4.0 3.6 0.6 0.5 14.6% 13.6% PWON BUY 0.4 478 (30.2) 690 767 11.7 9.8 2.0 1.7 16.8% 17.2% ASRI HOLD 0.1 278 (21.9) 350 310 4.7 4.5 0.6 0.5 11.9% 11.2% SMRA SELL * 0.1 600 (36.5) 901 782 24.0 22.6 1.1 1.2 4.6% 5.1% SSIA HOLD 0.0 468 (9.1) 623 564 112.5 76.0 0.5 0.5 0.5% 0.7% CTRA BUY 0.2 795 (32.9) 1300 1580 16.1 15.0 0.8 0.8 5.0% 5.1% DMAS HOLD 0.1 127 (25.7) 196 156 9.2 8.7 0.8 0.7 8.7% 8.4% KIJA SELL 0.1 216 (24.5) 240 203 48.5 42.3 0.7 0.7 1.5% 1.7% Average 28.8 22.8 0.9 0.8 7.9% 7.9% Construction PTPP BUY 0.1 1370 (48.1) 3163 3350 6.7 6.1 0.7 0.7 10.9% 10.7% ADHI BUY 0.1 1125 (40.3) 2331 3250 6.3 4.4 0.6 0.5 9.1% 11.4% WSKT BUY 0.3 1430 (35.3) 2402 3250 5.3 4.9 0.8 0.7 14.3% 14.8% WIKA BUY 0.2 1105 (28.7) 2159 1850 6.8 5.5 0.6 0.5 8.6% 9.4% Average 6.3 5.2 0.7 0.6 10.7% 11.6% Cement INTP SELL 0.9 16450 (25.1) 16130 13300 22.1 18.8 2.1 2.0 9.6% 10.5% SMGR BUY 0.8 8600 (13.1) 10277 12000 14.4 13.2 1.5 1.4 10.7% 10.7% SMCB SELL 0.2 1855 122.2 727 700 -25.4 -30.4 2.0 2.0 -7.7% -6.6% Average 3.7 0.5 1.9 1.8 4.2% 4.9% Precast WSBP BUY 0.1 322 (21.1) 496 580 7.6 6.4 0.9 0.8 12.4% 12.5% WTON BUY 0.0 302 (39.6) 657 750 6.8 6.6 0.8 0.7 11.5% 10.0% Average 7.2 6.5 0.9 0.7 11.9% 11.3%

Oil and Gas

PGAS BUY 0.8 2170 24.0 2622 3000 15.2 13.2 1.4 1.3 9.1% 9.7% AKRA BUY 0.2 3520 (44.6) 5212 6000 7.6 9.8 1.5 1.4 20.4% 14.3% TPIA SELL * 1.3 4800 (20.0) 4757 5480 19.6 17.6 3.3 2.9 16.8% 16.2% BRPT HOLD 0.5 1780 (21.2) 2244 2400 12.2 10.9 0.9 0.8 7.6% 7.4% ESSA BUY 0.1 294 52.2 444 457 40.8 10.8 1.3 1.0 3.2% 9.5% MEDC BUY 0.2 820 (7.9) 1313 1500 11.2 8.8 3.7 2.9 32.6% 32.5% Average 17.8 11.9 2.0 1.7 14.9% 14.9% Utilities JSMR BUY 0.5 4180 (34.7) 5554 7500 12.6 9.5 1.8 1.6 14.3% 16.8% Metal ANTM BUY 0.3 705 12.8 1193 1050 64.1 32.0 1.0 1.0 1.6% 3.1% INCO BUY 0.4 2880 (0.3) 4795 5200 30.7 18.2 1.1 1.1 3.5% 5.9% TINS BUY 0.1 650 (16.1) 1163 5200 9.8 9.0 0.8 0.8 8.1% 8.4% Average 34.9 19.7 1.0 0.9 4.4% 5.8% Coal DOID BUY 0.1 825.0 15.4 1430.0 1450 5.6 5.2 1.9 1.4 34.4% 27.3% ITMG BUY 0.5 25950 25.4 32519 32500 9.4 8.8 2.0 1.8 20.8% 20.8% ADRO BUY 0.8 1665 (10.5) 2532 2410 7.1 6.9 1.0 0.9 13.7% 12.8% PTBA BUY 0.8 4190 70.3 4820 5300 7.1 6.0 3.2 2.8 44.5% 46.5% Average 7.3 6.7 2.0 1.7 28.3% 26.8% Plantation AALI BUY 0.3 11575 (12.0) 14534 15200 11.5 9.4 1.2 1.1 10.3% 11.8% LSIP BUY 0.1 1260 (11.3) 1436 1420 11.2 10.7 1.0 0.9 8.7% 8.8% TBLA BUY 0.1 885 (27.8) 1360 1500 5.0 4.0 1.0 0.9 20.7% 21.8% SIMP HOLD 0.1 464 0.0 480 520 21.1 17.8 0.5 0.5 2.3% 2.7% Average 12.2 10.5 0.9 0.9 10.5% 11.3%

Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg

Note: GIAA, INKP, PGAS, ITMG, ADRO, MEDC, BRPT, INCO, DOID, TPIA report in USD. Note: *: Under Review

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Global Data

Regional Indices Last Price Chg (Pts)

1D 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low

World 1,976 (6.19) (0.31) (1.52) (2.86) (9.54) (8.03) (6.07) (2.89) 2,250 1,958 U.S. (S&P) 2,641 (17.44) (0.66) (0.56) (4.16) (9.36) (5.76) (1.21) 2.66 2,941 2,533 U.S. (DOW) 24,443 (245.39) (0.99) (0.57) (3.45) (7.62) (3.41) (1.12) 4.69 26,952 23,243 Europe 3,155 20.04 0.64 0.79 (1.10) (7.19) (10.18) (9.96) (13.85) 3,709 3,091 Emerging Market 935 (4.76) (0.51) (1.49) (2.68) (10.79) (14.25) (19.31) (16.20) 1,279 930 FTSE 100 7,026 86.76 1.25 0.91 (0.23) (6.44) (8.76) (8.60) (6.16) 7,904 6,852 CAC 40 4,989 21.98 0.44 0.73 (1.27) (9.18) (9.14) (6.08) (9.18) 5,657 4,897 Dax 11,335 134.86 1.20 1.29 (1.64) (7.44) (11.43) (12.25) (14.32) 13,597 11,051 Indonesia 5,755 (30.31) (0.52) 0.79 (1.47) (3.71) (4.53) (9.46) (3.67) 6,693 5,558 Japan 21,150 (34.80) (0.16) (0.56) (3.91) (12.31) (6.19) (7.09) (3.92) 24,448 20,347 Australia 5,707 (21.66) (0.38) 0.75 (2.34) (8.07) (9.11) (5.91) (3.59) 6,374 5,625 Korea 1,994 (1.56) (0.08) (3.33) (5.30) (14.88) (13.04) (19.17) (20.28) 2,607 1,986 Singapore 2,982 9.52 0.32 (1.67) (3.14) (8.46) (9.85) (12.38) (11.68) 3,642 2,956 Malaysia 1,684 0.67 0.04 (0.37) (2.25) (6.10) (4.89) (6.29) (3.70) 1,896 1,658 Hong Kong 24,812 94.41 0.38 (1.73) (5.13) (10.71) (13.65) (17.07) (12.44) 33,484 24,589 China 2,542 (56.74) (2.18) (2.35) (4.25) (9.90) (11.40) (23.13) (25.02) 3,587 2,449 Taiwan 9,516 27.14 0.29 (2.49) (4.59) (13.54) (13.75) (10.58) (11.53) 11,270 9,401 Thailand 1,637 7.92 0.49 0.83 (1.86) (6.81) (3.82) (6.66) (4.76) 1,853 1,585 Philipines 7,109 44.70 0.63 (0.29) (1.76) (2.31) (8.55) (16.94) (15.02) 9,078 6,791

Monetary Indicators Last Chg (Pts)

JIBOR Overnight (%) 5.72 0.01 6.06 3.89

Foreign Reserves (US$Bn) 114.85 (2.61) (4.17) (11.79) (11.25) 131.98 114.85

Inflation Rate (yoy, %) 2.88 3.61 2.88

Gov Bond Yld (10yr, %) 8.64 0.00 8.90 6.09

US Fed Rate (%) 2.25 2.25 1.25

Exchange Rate (per USD) Last Price Chg (Pts)

Indonesia 15,223 7.00 (0.05) (0.17) (0.22) (2.06) (5.34) (10.87) (10.77) 15,284 13,268

Japan 112.36 (0.01) 0.01 0.05 0.07 1.40 (1.17) 0.29 0.73 114.73 104.56

UK 1.28 0.00 0.08 (0.11) (1.39) (1.83) (2.51) (5.25) (3.07) 1.44 1.27

Euro 1.14 0.00 0.04 0.03 (0.81) (1.73) (2.80) (5.22) (2.34) 1.26 1.13

China 6.96 0.02 (0.27) (0.26) (0.21) (1.34) (2.11) (6.54) (4.53) 6.96 6.24

Commodity Indicators Last Price Chg (Pts)

Oil (WTI) 66.70 (0.34) (0.51) (0.94) 0.41 (8.94) (4.89) 10.39 23.18 76.90 53.75 CPO 2,187 39.00 1.82 (0.59) (2.24) 0.60 0.05 (12.62) (22.36) 2,857 2,137 Rubber 658.50 (3.00) (0.45) (0.53) (0.60) (0.75) (1.94) (10.10) (16.01) 782.50 610.50 Coal 108.00 0.00 0.00 (2.66) (2.44) (5.39) (6.25) 6.25 9.53 118.00 90.60 Iron Ore 71.12 0.94 1.34 3.30 4.16 9.57 19.67 0.48 16.49 76.88 57.85 Tin 19,172 (173.00) (0.89) (0.80) (0.45) 1.65 (4.36) (4.60) (4.19) 22,104 18,662 Nickel 11,755 (145.00) (1.22) (3.84) (6.19) (6.71) (15.19) (7.88) 1.51 16,690 10,740 Copper 6,160 0.00 0.00 (0.31) (1.31) (1.57) (2.18) (15.00) (9.81) 7,348 5,773 Gold 1,225 (7.70) (0.62) (0.30) 0.22 2.79 0.14 (6.25) (3.43) 1,366 1,160

Source: Bloomberg, SSI Research

Change (%) 1 Year

(8)

DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The v iews expressed in this research accurately ref lect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or

issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or v iews in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain indep endence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is f or information only and f or the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommenda tion contained in this report may not be suitable f or all investors. Moreover, although the inf ormation contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserv ed by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia

Research Team

Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head of Equity Research, Strategy, _{Banking, Consumer (Staple)} andy.ferdinand@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8148

Ahmad Mikail Economist ahmad.mikail@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8396

William Mamudi, CMT Technical Analyst william.mamudi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8382

Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA

Property, Construction, Cement, Toll Road, Aviation, Automotive, Mining Contractor, Cigarette, Healthcare

akhmad.nurcahyadi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8144

Arandi Ariantara Oil and Gas, Chemical, Coal, Telco, _{Telco Retail} arandi.ariantara@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8392 Marlene Tanumihardja Consumer (Poultry, Retail, Small Cap),

Pulp and Paper, Media marlene@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8387

Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Metal, Telco Infrastructure, Plantation,

Small Cap sharlita.malik@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8339

Albertha Palma Research Associate albertha.palma@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8338

Private Wealth Management

Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales evelyn.satyono@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8380 Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor m.alfatih@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8129

Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales ronny.ardianto@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8399

Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales clarice.wijana@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8395

Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales fachruly.fiater@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8325

Equity Sales Team

Kelvin Long Head of Equities kelvin.long@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8150

Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales yulianah@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8146

Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales lucia.irawati@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8173

Online Trading Sales Team

Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading nugroho.nuswantoro@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8372

Wahyu Widodo Marketing wahyu.widodo@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8371