F. No. 3-1/ 2020-21-CFCC-ES GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND FARMERS WELFARE
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, COOPERATION AND FARMERS WELFARE (CROP FORECAST COORDINATION CENTRE)
Room No. 443, Krishi Bhawan, New Delhi Dated: 22.02.2021
SUBJECT: MINUTES OF THE MEETING OFTHE CROP WEATHER WATCH GROUP HELD 19.02.2021.
Summary
All-India level rainfall during the week, 11 February 2021 to 17 February 2021, has been 83%
lower than the Long Period Average (LPA). Among the four broad geographical divisions of the country, against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Lower by 99% in North West India - Lower by 86% in East & North East India - Lower by 84% in South Peninsula,
- Lower by 4% in Central India.
Cumulative rainfall during Winter season, 01 January 2021 to 17 February 2021, has been 25%
lower than the LPA. Among the four broad geographical divisions, seen against the LPA the rainfall has been:
- Higher by 269% in South Peninsula, - Lower by 74% in East & North East India, - Lower by 53% in Central India
- Lower by 43% in North West India,
Out of 36 MET sub-divisions in the country, rainfall received has been:
- Large excess/ excess in 12 MET sub-divisions constituting 25% of total area, - Normal in 01 MET sub-division constituting 01% of total area,
- Deficient/large deficient in 22 MET sub-divisions constituting 71% of total area - No rainfall in 01 MET sub-division constituting 03% of total area.
Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors 130 major reservoirs in the country which have total live storage capacity of 174.23 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) at Full Reservoir Level (FRL).
- Out of these, 105 reservoirs with FRL capacity of 129.21 BCM have irrigation potential.
- Live storage in 130 major reservoirs as on 18 February 2021 was 97.81 BCM, which is:
- 90% of last year’s storage on the same day (18 February 2020) of 109.11 BCM.
- 123% of last 10 year’s average storage (normal) of 79.65 BCM.
Rabi sowing as on 29.01.2021, 684.59 lakh ha area has been sown as compared to 665.59 lakh ha during 2019-20 during the same period.
Summer crops sowing is expected to pick up from end of February.
Inflation (WPI Food Index) has declined from 0.92% in December 2020 to -0.26% in January 2021.
Status of change of WPI in January 2021 over December 2020 for some major items is as under.
- All Commodities: increase from 1.22% to 2.03%.
- Primary Articles: declined from -1.61% to -2.24%
- Food Articles: declined from -1.11% to -2.80%.
- Non-food Articles: increased from 3.13% to 4.16%.
- Pulses: declined from 9.69% to 7.92%.
- Cereals: declined from -6.46% to -7.34%.
- Wheat: declined from -11.10% to -11.62%.
- Paddy: declined from 0.12% to -0.12%.
- Fruits and Vegetables: declined from -8.38% to -12.33%
- Milk: declined from 3.91% to 3.56%
All-India progressive procurement
As on 19 February 2021, during KMS 2020-21, Progressive Procurement of Rice was 436.32 lakh MT as compared to 375.61 lakh MT during corresponding period of KMS 2019-20.
WINTER RAINFALL STATUS (January – February) during the week ending 17 February, 2021
1.1 Rainfall
Rainfall during the week (11 February to 17 February 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 03 met sub-divisions, deficient/large deficient in 14 sub-divisions and no rain in 19 sub-divisions. (Sub-Division wise weekly and seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-I).
Cumulative rainfall (01 January 2021 to 17 February 2021): Rainfall was large excess/excess in 12 met sub-divisions, normal in 01 sub-division, deficient/large deficient in 22 sub-divisions and no rain in 01 sub-division. (Sub-division wise seasonal rainfall distribution is in Annex-II).
Table 1.1: Weekly and Cumulative Rainfall in four regions of the country:
Region of India Week Ending (17.02.2021) Cumulative (01.01.21 to 17.02.2021) (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category (in mm) Deviation
(%) Category
Actual Normal Actual Normal
North-West 0.1 12.3 -99 LD 32.8 57.9 -43 D
Central 2.2 2.3 -4 N 6.0 12.7 -53 D
South Peninsula 0.4 2.2 -84 LD 46.5 12.6 269 LE
East & North-East 1.0 6.9 -86 LD 9.5 36.4 -74 LD
Country as a whole 1.0 6.1 -83 LD 22.7 30.3 -25 D
LE: Large Excess, E: Excess, N: Normal, D: Deficient, LD: Large Deficient, NR: No Rain.
Source: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Table 1.2: Category-wise Comparative Distribution of Sub-Division (Cumulative Rainfall) and All-India Percentage Rainfall Departure for last 5 years since 01 January 2021 to 17 February 2021
No. of Sub-Divisions with rainfall
For the period from 1 January to
17 FEB 2016
15 FEB 2017
14 FEB 2018
20 FEB 2019
19 FEB 2020
17 FEB 2021 Large Excess
Excess Normal Total
- 03 01 04
04 05 04 13
02 03 02 07
08 03 05 16
05 05 08 18
11 01 01 13 Deficient
Large Deficient Scanty
No rain Total
11 - 16 05 32
04 13 - 06 23
07 20 - 02 29
09 07 - 04 20
07 08 - 03 18
09 13 - 01 23
Data Inadequate 00 00 00 00 00 00
TOTAL 36 36 36 36 36 36
All-India % Rainfall Deviation (-) 63% 9% (-) 58% 16% (-) 1% (-) 25%
Source: IMD
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1.2 Weather Forecast for the Next two Weeks
Week-1: 18 – 24 February, 2021 Light to moderate rainfall at a few places with isolated thunderstorm, lightning & hailstorm very likely over Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra during next 24 hours.
Isolated rainfall/snowfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning/hailstorm very likely over Uttarakhand today on 18th Feb, 2021.
A fresh spell of isolated to scattered rain/thundershower very likely to occur over southeast Peninsular India towards end of the week 1(20-22 Feb 2021).
Isolated to scattered light to moderate rainfall/snowfall over the region during 20-23 Feb 2021.
A fresh spell of rainfall/snowfall is likely to occur over western Himalayan region from 23rd to 26th Feb 2021.
Cumulatively, below normal rain very likely over northern parts of country including Western Himalayan Region with above normal rainfall activity over southern peninsular India and adjoin central India. (Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 18 February to 24 February, 2021 is given in Annex-III).
Week-2: 25 February – 03 March, 2021
A fresh spell of rainfall/snowfall over western Himalayan region during 23rd-26th February, 2021 with peak activity on 24th & 25th February.
Subdued rainfall a likely over western and Peninsula India with mainly dry weather likely over central and northern plains of India.
Cumulatively, above normal rain very likely over Western Himalayan Region with mainly dry weather over central and western Parts of India and below normal rainfall over southern peninsular India and eastern and northeastern parts of India
Temperature
Week-1 & 2 : 18 February – 03 March, 2021
Minimum temperatures are above normal by 2 to 4°C over most parts of Gujarat, Jammu and Kashmir, most parts of central & east India. These are near normal or slightly below normal over remaining parts of India.
Warmer night temperatures are likely to continue over the plains of Western, North India, central and adjoin parts of eastern and northeastern India during 18-21 Feb followed by fall of 2-3°C during 22-24 Feb mainly over central and eastern parts of India.
Cold Wave and cold day conditions are unlikely over northern India during week 1.
During week 2, the minimum temperatures likely to continue to be normal to above normal over northwest & adjoining central India and northeastern states except western parts of Rajasthan, where it is likely to be below normal. These are likely to be below normal by 2-3°C over remaining parts of the country.
Dense to Very Dense Fog in some pockets over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi and in isolated pockets over northwest Rajasthan in the morning hours of 19th February and reduction in intensity & spatial coverage thereafter.
II. Reservoir Status (For the week ending on 18 February 2021)
Central Water Commission monitors the live storage capacity of 130 important/major reservoirs, having capacity at Full Reservoir Level (FRL) of 174.23 BCM, which is about 67.58% of total reservoir capacity of 257.81 BCM in the country.
Live Storage in 130 major reservoirs decreased to 97.81 BCM from the previous week’s level of 102.33 BCM. Current year’s storage position is lower than last year’s storage position of 109.11 BCM and higher than the average of last 10 year’s storage position of 79.65 BCM.
Table 2.1: For 130 major reservoirs of the country
Source: CWC
There were 114 reservoirs with more than 80% of normal storage, 12 reservoirs with storage between 51% to 80%, 01 reservoir with storage between 31% to 50%, 03 reservoir with storage upto 30% and 01 reservoir having no live storage.
Source: Central Water Commission
State-wise details (Reservoir Position) are given in Annex IV.
Period Storage as % of
FRL
Storage as % of Last Year
Storage as % of 10 Year’s Average Level
Current Week 56 90 123
Last Week 59 90 124
The percentage to live capacity at FRL was 63% on 18.02.2020, 40% on 18.02.2019, 39% on 18.02.2018 and 44% on 18.02.2017.
III. Fertilizer Position:
Table 3.1: Requirement, Receipt, Availability, Sales and Stock position of Major Fertilizers (UREA, DAP, MOP, Complex and SSP) during Rabi 2020 (As on 19.02.2021)
(in ‘000 tonnes) Availability/Sale/Closing Stock Urea DAP MOP Complex SSP
Opening Stock as on 01.10.2020 231 452 257 430 124
Requirement for Oct. 2020 to March 2021 18265 5615 1529 5505 2503 Estimated Requirement during Feb. 2021 1925 406 193 733 276 Cumulative Receipt upto 19.02.2021 15851 3403 1373 4900 1783 Cumulative Availability upto 19.02.2021 16082 3855 1630 5330 1907
Cumulative Sales upto 19.02.2021 15603 3532 1362 4649 1710
Closing Stock as on 19.02.2021 479 323 268 681 197
Source: Fertilizer Division (DAC&FW)/Department of Fertilizer
IV. Pest & Diseases:
Overall intensity of pests and diseases remained below Economic Threshold Level.
Rugose spiraling whitefly reported at the moderate intensity in 206 hectare areas of Coconut in Ramnagara district of Karnataka.
For Rugose Spiraling White fly (Aleurodicusrugioperculatus) in Coconut & Arecanut (Farmers infected Field) CIPMCs demonstrated use of Isariafumosorosea @5ml/1lt of water spray and advised farmers to install yellow sticky traps in orchards to trap adults and application of 1% starch solution on leaflets to flake out the sooty moulds and in case of unavailability Isariafumosorosea farmers were advised for spraying of neem oil 0.5% or NSKE 5%.
V. Seeds Position:
Rabi 2020-21 sowing seasons is over. Requirement & Availability of seeds for Kharif 2021- 22 season will be ascertained by the end of February or 1st Week of March, 2021 after Zonal conference.
VI. Mandi Functioning
PRICE COMPARISON WITH MSP (on 17 February, 2021)
Agri produce sold below MSP: Wheat, Paddy, Bajra, Barley, Maize, Jowar, Ragi, Gram and Moong.
Agri produce sold above MSP: Arhar, Urad, Masur, Copra, Groundnut, Mustard, Sesamum, Soyabean, Sunflower, Cotton and Jute.
VII. Variations in the Wholesale Price Indices (WPI) of Major items
Table - 7Period /
Commodities Weight
Inflation (year on year)
Jan-2021 Dec-2020 Jan-2020
All Commodities 100.00 2.03 1.22 3.52
Primary Articles 22.62 -2.24 -1.61 10.01
(a) Food Articles 15.26 -2.80 -1.11 11.30
Cereals 2.82 -7.34 -6.46 7.86
Paddy 1.43 -0.12 0.12 4.17
Wheat 1.03 -11.62 -11.10 8.98
Pulses 0.64 7.92 9.69 12.81
Gram 0.26 6.87 9.23 -1.22
Arhar 0.13 9.74 9.38 18.94
Moong 0.07 10.31 12.70 20.27
Masur 0.05 11.83 14.39 16.00
Urad 0.09 7.24 7.91 46.48
Vegetables 1.87 -20.82 -13.20 50.70
Potato 0.28 -22.04 37.75 85.50
Onion 0.16 -32.55 -54.69 293.37
Fruits 1.60 3.08 1.36 1.90
Milk 4.44 3.56 3.91 3.91
Egg, Meat & Fish 2.40 -1.76 1.41 7.36
(b) Non-Food
Articles 4.12 4.16 3.13 7.05
Oilseeds 1.12 8.85 7.52 9.02
VIII. All-India Crop Situation Rabi (2020-21) as on 29-01-2021
Table 8.1(In lakh ha.)
Crop Name
Normal Area for whole Rabi
Season
Area sown reported
Absolute Change This Year
2020
% of Normal for
whole season
Last Year 2019
Wheat 303.28 346.36 114.2 336.43 9.93
Rice 41.78 35.23 84.3 30.20 5.02
Jowar 33.40 27.18 81.4 30.19 -3.01
Maize 17.37 16.94 97.5 17.48 -0.55
Barley 6.38 6.84 107.3 7.79 -0.95
Total Coarse Cereals 57.14 51.68 90.4 56.10 -4.42
Total Cereals 402.20 433.26 107.7 422.73 10.53
Gram 92.77 112.00 120.7 107.31 4.69
Lentil 14.24 16.54 116.2 16.13 0.42
Peas 8.74 10.69 122.3 10.97 -0.28
Kulthi(Horse ram) 2.14 3.88 181.9 5.18 -1.29
Urad 8.93 8.09 90.6 7.54 0.55
Moong 9.86 6.59 66.9 6.66 -0.06
Lathyrus 3.98 3.14 78.8 3.31 -0.17
Others 4.23 6.44 152.3 5.79 0.65
Total Pulses 144.88 167.38 115.5 162.87 4.51
Total Foodgrains 547.07 600.64 109.8 585.60 15.04
Rapeseed & Mustard 59.44 73.94 124.4 69.08 4.85
Groundnut 7.24 4.76 65.8 4.82 -0.06
Safflower 1.15 0.59 51.0 0.63 -0.05
Sunflower 2.37 1.04 43.9 1.05 -0.01
Linseed 2.74 2.94 107.0 3.47 -0.53
Total Oilseeds 72.94 83.95 115.1 79.98 3.97
All- Crops 620.01 684.59 110.4 665.59 19.01
Source: Crops Divisions, DAC&FW
IX. Progressive Procurement as on 19
thFebruary, 2021
Table 8.1: Rice
(In lakh tonnes) State Target in Marketing
season 2020-21 (October– September)
Progressive Procurement as on 19. 02.2021
In Marketing season 2020-2021
In Marketing season 2019-2020
Andhra Pradesh 42.00 25.81 27.58
Telangana 50.00 32.67 31.57
Bihar 30.00 21.15 3.48
Chhattisgarh 60.00 39.76 51.85
Haryana 44.00 37.60 43.07
Kerala 3.25 1.40 1.32
Madhya Pradesh 27.00 24.97 17.40
Maharashtra 12.00 5.30 4.72
Odisha 37.00 36.88 30.31
Punjab 113.00 135.89 108.76
Tamil Nadu 17.00 9.28 5.47
Uttar Pradesh 37.00 44.17 34.21
Uttarakhand 6.70 6.79 6.24
West Bengal 23.80 10.68 8.37
All-India 518.25 436.32 375.61
Source: Food &PD
Annexe-III/p-1
Sub-division wise weekly rainfall Forecast for week 18 – 24 Feb., 2021 for 36 Met Sub-Divisions:
METEOROLOGICAL SUB-DIVISIONWISE WEEKLY RAINFALL FORECAST & Wx. WARNINGS-2021
Sr. No MET.SUB-DIVISIONS 18 FEB 19 FEB 20 FEB 21 FEB 22 FEB 23 FEB 24 FEB
1 ANDAMAN & NICO.ISLANDS SCT L SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH ISOL L ISOL ISOL D D ISOL ISOL
3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA ISOL L ISOL D D D D D
4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.& TRIPURA ISOL L ISOL ISOL L D D D D
5 SUB-HIM.W. BENG. & SIKKIM ISOL L D D D D ISOL ISOL
6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL ISOL L ISOL D D D D D
7 ODISHA ISOL L ISOL D D D D D
8 JHARKHAND ISOL L ISOL D D D D D
9 BIHAR ISOL L D D D D D D
10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH ISOL L D D D D D D
11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH D D D D D D D
12 UTTARAKHAND ISOL T # D D D ISOL L ISOL SCT
13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI D F D F D D D D D
14 PUNJAB D F D F D D D D D
15 HIMACHAL PRADESH D D D ISOL L ISOL L SCT FWS
16 JAMMU & KASHMIR AND LADAKH D D ISOL L SCT L # FWS L # SCT FWS
17 WEST RAJASTSAN D F D D D D D D
18 EAST RAJASTSAN D D D D D D D
19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL D D D D D D
20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH ISOL D D D D D D
21 GUJARAT REGION ISOL L D D D D D D
22 SAURASTRA & KUTCH D D D D D D D
23 KONKAN & GOA ISOL L T ISOL D D D D D
24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA SCT T # ISOL L D D D D D
25 MARATHAWADA SCT T # ISOL L D D D D D
26 VIDARBHA SCT L ISOL L D D D D D
27 CHHATTISGARH SCT L ISOL L D D D D D
28 COASTAL ANDHRA PR. & YANAM D ISOL SCT L ISOL D D D
29 TELANGANA SCT L ISOL D D D D D
30 RAYALASEEMA D D ISOL ISOL D D D
31 TAMIL. PUDU. & KARAIKAL ISOL SCT L FWS L ISOL ISOL D D
32 COASTAL KARNATAKA ISOL ISOL D D D D D
33 NORTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA ISOL L ISOL L ISOL D D D D
34 SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA ISOL ISOL L SCT ISOL ISOL D D
35 KERALA & MAHE SCT L SCT L D ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL
36 LAKSHADWEEP SCT SCT D D D ISOL ISOL
LEGENDS:
WS - WIDE SPREAD / MOST PLACES (76-100%) FWS - FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD / MANY PLACES (51% to 75%)
SCT - SCATTERED / FEW PLACES (26% to 50%) ISOL - ISOLATED (up to 25%) D / DRY - NO RAINFALL
●Heavy Rainfall (64.5-115.5 mm) ●●Heavy to Very Heavy Rainfall (115.6-204.4 mm) ●●●Extremely Heavy Rainfall (204.5 mm or more)
F Fog * Snowfall DDuststorm $Thunderstorm with Squall L Thunderstorm with Lightning # Thunderstorm with Hail
Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Normal -4.5 OC to -6.4OC) - -Severe Cold Wave (Minimum temperature departure from Norma ≤ -6.5OC)
Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal +4.5 OC to +6.4OC) + Severe Heat Wave (Maximum temperature departure from Normal ≥ +6.5OC)
Annex-III/ P.2
Sub-division-wise 5 days rainfall forecast from 19 February – 23 February 2021:
