ﺮﺛﺍ ﻐﺘﻣ ﻴ ﺎﻫﺮ ﻱ ﮐ ﻴ ﻔ ﻲ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ
ﮔ ﺭﺍﺬ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﻱﺎﻀﻓ ﺭﺩ ﻱ
ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ
ﺩﺍﮋﻧ ﻲﺳﺎﺒﻋ ﻦﻴﺴﺣ
*١
ﻲﻠﻣﺎﻋ ﻞﺒﺟ ﺎﻳﻮﭘ **
ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :
۳ / ۸ / ۸۴ ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ :
۴ / ۱۱ / ۸۴
ﻩﺪﻴﮑﭼ ﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻥﺎﮐﺭﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﮑﻳ ﻪﮐ ﺎﺠﻧﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺔ
ﺵﺮﺘﺴـﮔ ﻱﺎـﻨﺒﻣ ﺮـﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﺼـﺘﻗﺍ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ
ـﮔ ﻱﺭﺍﺬ ﺭﺩ ﺶـﺨﺑ
ﺘﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺮﻴﻐ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﻭﺮـﺿ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻴﺧﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ .
ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻥﺩﺮـﮐ ﻅﺎـﺤﻟ ﺎـﺑ
ﻨﻴﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ ﺚﺣﺎﺒﻣ ﺔ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﮔ ﺯﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺬ ﻱﺮـﻈﻧ ﻩﺎﮔﺪﻳﺩ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ
ﻱﺩﺎﺼـﺘﻗﺍﺮﻴﻏ ﻱﺎـﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭ
ﺍﺭ ﻲﻔﻴﻛ ﺮﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﮔ ﻱﺭﺍﺬ ﻲﻣ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺪـﻨﻛ
. ﻲﻧﺎـﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﻱﺎﻀـﻓ ﺩﺎـﺠﻳﺍ ﺎـﺑﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦـﻳﺍ ,
ﺮـﻴﻐﺘﻣﺮﺑ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻲﻣ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺰﻳﺭ ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﻭ ﻦﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﻝﺎﺒﻧﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫ
ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺘﺑ ﻪﮐ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻳ
ﻢﺠﺣ ﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻔﻴﮐ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ
ﮔ ﺪﺑﺎﻴﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺬ .
ﺭﺩ ﺩﺎﺼـﺘﻗﺍ ﮏـﻳ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺎﻣﺍ
ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﺣ ,
ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ ﺎـﺗ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺏﺎـﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﺎﻨﺒﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﻲﻜﺴﻳﺭ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻫﻮﺒﻧﺍ ﺎﺑ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻔﻴﮐ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺁ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﺩﻮﺷ ﻥﻮﻣﺯ .
ﻝﺪﻣ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ ﺕﺎـﺒﺛﺍ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻲﺿﺎﻳﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺮﺑ ﻲﻔﻴﮐ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺎﺸـﻧ ﻲﺠﻨﺳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺲﭘ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﺮـﮔ
ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻲﮕﻧﻮﮕﭼ )
ﻪﺑ ﻪﮐ ﺪﻧﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺯﺎﺠﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ (
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻲﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺶﺨﺑ .
ﻪﻘﺒﻃ ﻱﺪﻨﺑ : JEL D8, R42
.
ﻩﮊﺍﻭ ﺪﻴﻠﻛ :
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﮔ ،ﻱﺭﺍﺬ ﮏﺴﻳﺭ ، ﺲﭘ ،ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
________________________________
________________________________
__
ﺪﮑﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﺸﻧﺍﺩ * ﺓ
ﻥﺍﺮﻬﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ .
ﻱﺰﻳﺭ ﻪﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭﺍ ﺱﺎﻨﺷﺭﺎﮐ**
.
١
‐ ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ ﻩﺎـﮕﻳﺎﺟ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﻑﺍﺪﻫﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ
ﻲﻤﻬﻣ ﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ
. ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻦﻴﻤﻫ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺎـﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻬﺟﻮـﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻢﺠﺣ
ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﻮﺸﮐ
ﺎﻫ , ﺑ ﺍ ﻪ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻳ ﺖﺳﺍ
. ﻱﺍﺰـﺟﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻲـﻜﻳ ﻪـﻛ ﺎﺠﻧﺁ ﺯﺍ
ﻳﺪﭘ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ، ﻩﺪ
ﺲﭘ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ
ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻥﺁ ﺮﺑ ﺮﺛﻮﻣ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﻩﮋﻳﻭ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺍ
ﺪﻧ . ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻥﻮﭼ ,
ﻞﻠﻋ ﻪﺑ ) ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ
ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﻲﮑﻴﺘﻴﻟﻮﭘﻮﺋﮊ ,
ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﺎﻧ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺎﺗ (
ﺖﺳﺩ ﺎﻫﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺯﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ
ﺮﮔ ﻪﺑ ﮏﺴﻳﺭ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻥﺎﺒﻳ ﺪﻧﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺯ
) ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﺎﺠﻨﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﺎﻳ ﻲﻔﻴﮐ ﺩﻮﺷ
( , ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺮﺑ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻝﺪﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻱﺮـﻈﻧ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ .
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﺵﺮﻳﺬـﭘ ﺩﺭﻮـﻣ ﻭ ﻡﺎﻋ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻣﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺬـﮔ
, ﺪﻳﺎـﺷ
ﺏﻮــﻠﻄﻣ ﻭ ﺩﻮــﺟﻮﻣ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮــﺳ ﻥﺎــﻴﻣ ﻑﺎﮑــﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻥﺍﻮــﺘﺑ ,
ﻪــﮐ ﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﻥﺎــﻴﻣ ﻪــﺑ ﻦﺨــﺳ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ , ﻲﻣ ﺶﺷﻮﭘ ﺍﺭ ﻑﺎﮑﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺪﻫﺩ
.
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ ,
ﻢﻴﻨﮐ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺁ ﻱﺍ ﻪﻳﺎﭘ ﻱﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺨﺑ ﺮﮔﺍ ,
ﻦﻳﺍ ﺪﻳﺎﺷ
،ﻪﮐ ﺪﻨﮐ ﺖﻳﺎﻔﮐ ﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻢﻬﻣ ﺮﺻﺎﻨﻋ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ
ﻭ ﻱﺭﺍﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺪﻳﺎﻋ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻞﻜﺸﺘﻣ
ﺑ ﻭ ﺪﻳﺁ ﻥﺎـﻴﺑ ﻝﻮـﭘ ﺐﺴـﺣ ﺮ
ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺡﻼﻄﺻﺍ ﻝﻮﻤﻌﻣ ,
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺡﻼﻄﺻﺍ ﺎﺑ
١ﻱﺍ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ
ﻲــﻣ ﻝﺎﻤﻌﺘــﺳﺍ ﻑﺩﺍﺮــﺘﻣ ﺩﻮــﺷ
؟ )
،ﮓــﻨﻫﺮﻓ ١٣٧١
ﺹ ٢٥٨ ( ﺯﺍ ﻡﻮــﻬﻔﻣ ﻦــﻳﺍ ﻭ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺩﻮﺑ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻝﻮﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ .
٢
‐ ﮏﺴﻳﺭ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺍ
ﻪﭼﺮﮔ ﻩﮊﺍﻭ ﺑ ﺮﮕﻳﺪﻜﻳ ﻑﺩﺍﺮﺘﻣ ﻥﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻭ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺮﺑ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻪ
ﻮـﺷ ﺪﻧ ،
ﺯﺍ ﺎﻣﺍ ﻣ ﺪﻨﺗﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺮﻈﻨ .
ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺩﺍﺪـﻳﻭﺭ ﺹﺎـﺧ ﻱﺎﻨﻌﻣ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻔﮔ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﻉﻮﻗﻭ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ .
ﺎـﻣﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻥﺎـﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﻡﺪـﻋ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻔﮔ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺩﺍﺪﻳﻭﺭ
ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺒﻧ ﺖﻠﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻞـﺑﺎﻗ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﻉﻮﻗﻭ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ،ﻲﻓﺎﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺴﻴﻧ ﻱﺮﻴﮔ ﺖ
) .
،ﻲﻧﺎﻄﻠﺳ ١٣٧٢
ﺹ ١٥٣ ( ﻥﺩﺍﺩ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻑﺩﺍﺮـﺘﻣ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻣﺍ
________________________________
________________________________
__
1- Capital Goods.
ﻲﻤﻧ ﺶﻫﻭﮋﭘ ﻲﻠﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺒﻴﺳﺁ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺯ
ﻐﺘﻣ ﻴ ﺎﻫﺮ ﻱ ﮐ ﻴ ﻔ ﻲ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺍﺭ ﺍ ﻳ ﺩﺎـﺠ
ﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﮏﺴﻳﺭ ﻴ
ﺎﻀﻓ ﻪﺠ ﻱ ﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﻴ ﻧﺎﻨ ﻲ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ , ﻣ ﻲ ﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺮﺑ ﺪﻨﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﻪﻳ
ﺭﺍﺬـﮔ ﻱ
ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺬﮔﺮﺛﺍ .
ﺴﺑ ﻪﭼﺮﮔﺍ ﻴ
ﺭﺎ ﻱ ﺭ ﺯﺍ ﮏﺴﻳ ﺎﻫ ﻱ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ ـﻳﺭ ﺪـﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﺥﺮـﻧ ﻚﺴ
،١
ﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻲﮕﻨﻳﺪﻘﻧ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻭ٢
ﻐﺘﻣ ٣
ﻴ ﺮ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻤﮐ ﻲ ﺪﻧﺍ ﺭ ﺎﻣﺍ ﻳ ﮏﺴ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻳ ﺪـﻨﻧﺎﻣ
ﻲﺘﻳﺮﻳﺪﻣ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻲﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ، ٤
ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻭ ٥
ﻐﺘﻣ ٦
ﻴ ﺮ ﻱﺎﻫ ﮐ ﻴ ﻔ ﺏﻮﺴﺤﻣ ﻲ
ﻲﻣ
٧ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻠﺻﺍ ﺶﻘﻧ ﻲﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﮏﺴﻳﺭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﮐ ﺪﻨﮐ
.
٣
‐ ﺪﻧﺮﻴﮔ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺓ
ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ
ﺩ ﺍ ﺭ ﻳ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻦ ﻲﻣ
ﺷﻮﮐ ﻴ ﺎﺗ ﻢ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺎﻀﻓ ﻱ ﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﻴ ﻧﺎﻨ ﻲ ﻤﺼـﺗ ﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻴ
ﺕﺎﻤ ـﻳ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﮏ
ﻲﺘﺑﺎﻗﺭ , ﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻴﻴ ﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺏﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻦ ﻳ
ﻪ ) ﻪـﮐ ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻢـﺠﺣ
ﻪﻳ ﺭﺍﺬـﮔ ﻱ ﺍﺭ
ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﻲﻣ
ﺪﻨﮐ ( ﺭﺩ ﻳ ﺑﺎ ﻴ ﻢ . ،ﺩﺮﺧ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﺘﻨﺳ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻳﺰﺠﺗ ﺭﺩ
"
ﻞﻣﺎﻛ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ "
ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻞﻣﺎﻛ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺪﻴﻠﻛ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻚﻳ ﺪﺷ ﻪﺑ
ﺕ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻪـﻛ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ
ﻥﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﺭﺩ )
ﺖـﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ
ﻼﻣﺎـﻛ ﺕﺎﺴـﺳﻮﻣ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﻲﮔﺪـﻧﺮﻴﮔ
ﻝﺪﻣ ﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﻲﺘﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻲﻣ
ـﺷ ﺩﻮ ( ﺩﻭﺪـﺤﻣ ﻲـﻣ
ﺪـﻨﻛ ) : ﺎـﻨﻛ ﻚـﻣ
، ١٣٧٢ ﺹ ٨١ .(
ﻩﺪـﻧﺮﻴﮔ
ﺤﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻫﺎﮕﻨﺑ ،ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺼ
ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺵﺩﻮـﺧ ﻪـﻛ ﺍﺭ ﻲﻟﻮ ﻲـﻣ
ﻛ ﺭﺎـﺟﺍ ﻭ ﺪـﻨ ﺓ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺶﻫﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺎﮐ ﻪﺑ
ﺩﻮﺧ ، ﻧ ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻲﻤ ﻛ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﺪﻨ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ
ﺍﺭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻭ ﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻣ
ﺩﺮﻴﮔ . ﻩﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻊﻗﺍﻭ ﺭﺩ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻚـﭼﻮﻛ ﻱﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﺷﺎﮕﻧﺍ ﻩﺪﻳﺩﺎﻧ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻱﻭﺭ ﺮﺑ ﺶﺗﺎﻤﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻪﻛ
ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻢﻤﻳﺰﻛﺎـﻣ ،ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﻑﺪﻫ
ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺩﻮﺳ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ )
(π ﺖﺳﺍ U , ﺎـﻣﺍ ﺭﻮـﻃ ﻪـﺑ ﻩﺪﻧﺎﺘـﺳ ﻪـﺑ ﻝﻮـﻤﻌﻣ
ﺔﻠﻴﺳﻭ ﻲﻣ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻞﻳﺫ ﺕﺪﻣ ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﺩﻮﺷ
:
) ١ ( )
(K X X =
________________________________
________________________________
__
1- Interest Rate Risk.
2- Purchasing Power Risk.
3- Liquidity Risk.
4 - Management Risk.
5- Political Risk.
6- Industry Risk.
7- Francis, 1991, P. 8.
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻭ ﻩﺪﻧﺎﺘﺳ X
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ K ﺖﺳﺍ , ﻭ ﺱﺎﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ,
ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮـﺧ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ
ﺖﺷﺍﺩ 0 ,
>
) ( ' K ﻭX
<0 ) (
" K .X
ﺩﻮﺧ ﺚﺤﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻣ ﻪﭼ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ
ﺭﺍﻭ ﺍﺭ ﺩﺮﺧ ﻭ
ﻪﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﻪﻧ ﺍ
ﭼ ،ﻢﻳ ﻥﻮ ﺖﻴﻌـﺿﻭ ﻩﺭﺍﻮﻤﻫ
ﻩﺎﺗﻮﻛ ﻩﺎﮕﻧ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺎﺑ ﺕﺪﻣ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻦﺘﺷﺍﺩ
) (K ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﻭ )
(L ﺚـﺤﺑ
ﻲﻣ
١ﺩﻮﺷ ، ﺎﻣﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺎﺠﻧﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﺎـﻣ ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ
،ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺬـﮔ ـﻄﺑﺍﺭ
ﺍﺭ ﺕﺪـﻣ ﻩﺎـﺗﻮﻛ ﺔ
ﻪﺑ ﺔﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ )
١ ( ﻪﺘﺷﻮﻧ ﻢﻳﺍ ،ﻢﻳﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﮐ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺭﺎﮐ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺍﺭ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺓﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻭ ﺎﺗ
ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ
ﻴﺑ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺡﻮﻄﺳ ﻦ
ﻲﻧﺎـﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﻭ ﻥﺎـﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻭ
ﺭﺩ ﻂﻳﺍﺮـﺷ
ﻢﻳﺭﻭﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺘﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ .
ﻪـﻌﻣﺎﺟ ﻲـﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻞﻳﻻﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻢﻴﻨﻛ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻝﺎﺣ )
ﺏﻼـﻘﻧﺍ ﺪـﻨﻧﺎﻣ (
ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ
ﺏﻼﻘﻧﺍ ﻉﻮﻗﻭ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻒﻗﻮﺘﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ q
, ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺩﻮﺳ ﻦﻴـﻨﭼ
ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ
ﺩﻮﺑ : ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺎﺑ
q a
K p K
px − k −
= ( )
π1
) ٢ ( ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺎﺑ
−q 1 a
K pk −
−
2=
π
ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ p
k , ﻭ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ p ـﻨﻳﺰﻫ a
ﺔ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺖـﺑﺎﺛ
ﺖﺳﺍ , ﻲﻣ ﺰﻳﺭﺍﻭ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺏﺎﺴﺣ ﻪﺑ ﺎﺠﻨﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ
ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﺔ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻲﻣ ﺽﺮﻓ
ﺩﻮـﺷ
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ
ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ
ﺪـﻨﻛ ﺖـﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻒﻗﻮﺗ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ .
ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻪﺑ
ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻳﺁ :
) ٣ (
1
2 π
π <
) ( ) ( ) ( )
(π qu π1 1 q u π2
u = + −
ﻱﻭﺭ ﻲﻟﺮﺘﻨﻛ ﭻﻴﻫ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ،ﻲﻄﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻦﻴﻨﭼ ﺭﺩ ﻭp
pk
ﺎﻳ ﻭ ﻪـﺑ ﺎـﻬﻨﺗ ﻭ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺪﻧ a
ﻱﻭﺭ ﻲﻳﺰﺟ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻝﺮﺘﻨﻛx
ﺩﺭﺍﺩ . ﺭﺍﺪـﻘﻣ ،ﺏﺎـﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻞـﺤﻣ ﺎـﻬﻨﺗ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ )
(K ﺖـﺳﺍ .
ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ )
(K ﻢﻤﻳﺰﻛﺎﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ
ﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺔ ) ٣ ( ﻦﻴﻴﻌﺗ ﻲﻣ ﻛ ـﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻁﺮـﺷ ،ﺪﻨ ﺔ
ﻝﻭﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺮﻳﺯ :
) ٤ (
0
1 2
1 px K − pk − −q u pk =
qu'(π )( '( ) ) ( ) '(π )
ﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﺣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺔ
) ٤ ( ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺧ :
________________________________
________________________________
__
1- Perloff, 2003 P:152.
k
k q u p
p K px
qu'(π1)( '( )− )=(1− ) '(π2)
ﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻦﻴﻓﺮﻃ pk
ﻢﻴﺴﻘﺗ ﻲﻣ
ﻛ ﻢﻴﻨ :
) ( ' ) ( ) )
( )( ' (
' π1 1 1 q u π2
p K qu px
k − = −
) ( ' ) ( ' ) ) (
( ' ) (
' π1 1 π2 π1
qu u
q p
qu K px
k = − +
ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ :
) ٥ (
⎪⎭
⎪⎬
⎫
⎪⎩
⎪⎨
⎧
−
= +
) ( ' ) ( ) ( '
) ( ) '
(
' * *
* *
2 1
1
1 π
π
π u q qu
K qu p x
pk
ﻂــﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﻦــﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ )
( ' i* u π ﺒــﺳﺎﺤﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺖــﺳﺍ ﺕﺭﺎــﺒﻋ ﺔ
) ( ' i u π ﺭﺍﺪــﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ
K∗
ﻭ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻢﻴﻧﺍﺩ
K∗
ﺯﺍ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻩﺍﺭ ﺔﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﻪﻨﻴﺸﻴﺑ )
٣ ( ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺁ
ﻲﺘﺣﺍﺭ ﻪﺑ ،ﺪﻳ
ﻲﻧﺎـﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﺖـﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ
=1 ﻭ q ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺩﺮـﺧ ﺩﺎﺼـﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﻱﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻚﻴﺳﻼﻛ ﻲﻣ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ،ﺪﻳﺁ
ﺩﻮﺷ :
) ٦ (
) ( ' K p x
pk =
ﻝﺍﻮــﺳ ﻨﻳﺍ ﻦﻴــﺑ ﺎــﻳﺁ ﻪــﻛ ﺖــﺳﺎﺠ K∗
ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎــﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﻂﻳﺍﺮــﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻂﻳﺍﺮــﺷ ﺭﺩ k
ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ,
ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ )
٦ ( ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺦﺳﺎﭘ ؟ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﺗﻭﺎﻔﺗ
=1
ﺕﺭﺎـﺒﻋ q
ﺔﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺩﻻﻮﮐﺁ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ )
٥ ( ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ١ ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻲﺗﻭﺎـﻔﺗ ﭻﻴـﻫ
K∗
ﻭ K
ﺩﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ .
ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﻭﺭ q
K∗
ﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻪﺑ ﺔ ) ٤ ( ﻲـﻣ ﺯﺎﺑ ﻢﻳﺩﺮـﮔ ﻭ ﺯﺍ
ﻲﻨﻤﺿ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ,
ﺖﺴﺟ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ :
) ٧
{ }
({
1 2 2}
2 1
1 2
1
*
) )(
(
"
) 1 ( ) (
"
) ( ' ] ) ( ' )[
(
"
) ( ' ) ( ' [ ) ( ' ) ( '
k k
k
p u
q K
px qu
p K px qu
p u u
K px u
dq dK
π π
π
π π
π
− + +
−
− +
= −
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺰﻳﺮﮔ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻚﻳ ﺎﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺽﺮﻓ ,
ﻥﻮﭼ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
1
2 π
π <
ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ
،
) ( )
(π2 u π1 u′ > ′
ﺖﺳﺍ , ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻲـﻔﻨﻣ ﺮﺴﻛ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ
ﺩﻮﺑ . ـﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻁﺮﺷ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻲﺗﺭﻮﺻ ﺭﺩ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺮﺴﻛ ﺝﺮﺨﻣ ﺔ
ﻢﻴـﻈﻨﺗ ﻢﻤﻳﺰﻛﺎـﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻡﻭﺩ
ﻔﻨﻣ ،ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻞﮐ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ
. ﻲﻣﺎـﮕﻨﻫ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ
ﻪﻛ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ q ﻲﻣ ﺍﺪﻴﭘ
ﺪﻨﻛ
∗، ﻲﻣ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﺰﻴﻧ K ﺪﻳﺁ
.
ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺎﻣﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻪﺑ q
) ﻉﻮـﻗﻭ ﻝﺎـﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺎﺠﻨﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺏﻼﻘﻧﺍ (
ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﺏﻮـﻠﻄﻣ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺐﺟﻮﻣ ﻭ
K∗
ﻲـﻣ ﺩﻮـﺷ ﻭ
ﻲﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺏﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺎﺑ ﺪﻳﺩﺮﺗ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ، ﻪﻛ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺡﻮﻄـﺳ ﻦﻴـﺑ ﻑﻼﺘـﺧﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺘﻣ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺏﻮﻠﻄﻣ ,
ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺖﻓﺎﻳ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ
. ـﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﺔ
) ٧ (
ﻲﻣ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ
ﺏﻼﻘﻧﺍ ﻉﻮﻗﻭ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ ,
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﻚـﻳ ﻱﺭﺍﺬـﮔ
ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ
ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻞﻛ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻭ ﻻﺎﺑ
ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ
ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﻢﻳﺮﻴﮕﺑ , ﺘﺣﺍ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻢـﺠﺣ ،ﺏﻼﻘﻧﺍ ﻉﻮﻗﻭ ﻝﺎﻤ
ﻦﻴﻳﺎـﭘ ﺩﺎﺼـﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﺬـﮔ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻳﺁ . ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﮏﺴﻳﺭ ﻱﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻪﮐ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﮐﺫ ﻪﺑ ﻡﺯﻻ ,
ﺔـﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ )
٧ ( ﻲـﻔﻨﻣ
ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﮐ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ,
ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺏﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻢﺠﺣ
ﻲﻣ ﮏﺴﻳﺭ ﺖﻴﺻﻮﺼﺧ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻭ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻧﺍﻮـﺨﻤﻫ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻱﺮﻳﺬﭘ
ﺩ . ﺮـﻫ ﻪـﺑ ﺎـﻣﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻞﮑﺷ ﻒـﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺕﺎـﺟﺭﺩ ﻪـﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﻼﻣﺎﻋ ﺖﻳﺮﺜﮐﺍ ﻲﻌﻗﺍﻭ ﻱﺎﻴﻧﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻪﮐ ﻢﻴﻧﺍﺩ
ﻲﻣ ﺮﻈﻧ ﻪﺑ ﺢﻴﺤﺻ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻱﺎﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻻﺎﺑ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺰﻳﺮﮔ ﮏﺴﻳﺭ ﺪﺳﺭ
.
٤
‐ ﺪﻧﺮﻴﮔ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺓ
ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺭﺩ ،ﺖﻤﻴﻗ
ﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺧ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ،ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺎ
ﺯﺎﻏﺁ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻣ
ﻛ ﻢﻴﻨ ﻪـﻛ ﻞـﺻﺍ ﻱﺎـﻨﺒﻣ ﺮـﺑ
ﺏﺎﺘﺷ , ﻪﺑ ﻪﭼ ﻪﺑ ﻪﭼ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺎﺳ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﺎﺑ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ
) ﻦﻴـﺗ ﺭﺎـﺑ ﻦﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﮐ ﻥﺎﻨﭽﻧﺁ
ﺩﺮﮐ ﺚﺤﺑ ﻥﺁ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻦﮔﺮﺑ (
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺏﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻭ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻄﺑﺍﺭ
ﺔ ﻲﻤﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ
ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺮﮕﻳﺪﻜﻳ ﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺒﺴـﻧ ﻪـﻛ ﻲﺘﻟﺎـﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻴـﻨﻛ ﺖـﺑﺎﺛ ﺮـﮔﺍ ﻝﺎﺣ ،١
ﻛ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﺶﻫﺎ
ﻲﻣ ﺍﺪﻴﭘ ﺪﻨﻛ ﺑﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺖﻠﻋ ﻪﺑ ، ﺔﻄ
ﺏﺎﺘﺷ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ ﺖﻔﮔ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺏﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﺢﻄﺳ ،ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ
ﻲﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ
ﺪﺑﺎﻳ . ﻢﻳﺮﺤﺗ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻢﻴﻨﻛ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺮﮔﺍ
ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺭﻮﺸـﻛ ﻚـﻳ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ
ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﻴﺳﻭ ﻒﻴﻃ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﺐﺟﻮﻣ ﻲﻳﻻﺎﻛ
ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺘﺴﺑ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﻒﻴﻃ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ
ﻢﺠﺣ ﻢﻳﺮﺤﺗ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺖﺨﺳ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻥﺎﻨﭽﻧﺁ ،
ﻱﺭﻮﺸـﻛ ﺩﺎﺼـﺘﻗﺍ ﺮـﺑ ﻢﻳﺮﺤﺗ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ ﻝﺎـﻤﻋﺍ
________________________________
________________________________
__
1- Tinbergen,1938.
ﻝﻮﺼﺤﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻦﻳﺮﺗﻻﺎﺑ ،ﺩﻮﺷ ﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻪﺑ
،ﺩﺮـﻴﮕﻧ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻲﻤﻳﺮﺤﺗ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻭ
ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﺭﺩ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ
ﺩﻮﺧ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﻦﻳﺮﺗ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ
, ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﺩﺍﺪـﻌﺗ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ
ﻪـﺑ ﻞـﻤﺘﺤﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫ
ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ
ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻪﺘﺧﺎﻨـﺷ ﻲﻟﺎﮕﭼ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻚﻳ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻳﺁ
[
f(p)]
ﻊـﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ
ﺪﺷ . ﻪـﻛ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﻱﺭﺎـﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻥﺎـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ
ﻪﺑ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻞﻳﺫ ﺪﻨﻛ
.
) ٨ (
∫
− −= u pX c X a f p dp u(π) ( ( ) ) ( )
ــﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺔ
ﻻﺎــﺑ ــﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺔ ﺮــﻴﻐﺘﻣ )
(X ﻩﺪﻧﺎﺘــﺳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰــﻓﺍ ﺎــﺑ c ,
ﺶﻳﺍﺰــﻓﺍ ﺍﺪــﻴﭘ
ﻲﻣ ﺪﻨﻛ ) 0 ) ( (c′ X >
.
ﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺔ
ﺏﺎﺨﺘﻧﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻝﻭﺍ ) X
ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ( ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻪﻨﻴﺸـﻴﺑ ﻥﺩﺮـﻛ
ـﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺔ ) ٨ (
ﻪﺑ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ :
) ٩
∫
u'(π)[p−c'(X)]f(p)dp=0 (ﺖﺳﺍ . ﺭﺩ ﺎﻣﺍ ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺎﺑ ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻚﻴﺳﻼﻛ ,
ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﻁﺮﺷ ﻪﺑ
ﺕﺭﻮﺻ
) ١٠ ( 0
=
−c'(X) p
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺔ ) ١٠ ( ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺎﺑ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻱﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻁﺮﺷ ﺎﻳ ﻞﺻﺍ ﺔ
ﻪـﺑ ﻲﺑﺎﻴﺘﺳﺩ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ
ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮﺳ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ
ﺪﻫﺩ . ،ﻪﺘﺷﺬﮔ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﻩﺭﺎﺑﻭﺩ
ﻝﺍﻮﺳ ﻲﻣ ﻛ ﺎـﻳﺁ ﻪـﻛ ﻢﻴـﻨ
ﻦﻴﺑ X*
ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﺣ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ
ﻭ ﺪﻳﺁ ﻁﻮـﺑﺮﻣ ﻪﻛ X
ﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﻪﺑ ـﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻁﺮﺷ ﻝﺍﻮﺳ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺦﺳﺎﭘ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ؟ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﺗﻭﺎﻔﺗ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻧ
ﺔ
ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻲﻣ
ﻢﻴﻨﻛ . ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺭﺩ )
١٠ ( ﻲﻣ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻢﻳﺮﻴﮔ
:
) ١١ 0 (
<
−c"(X)
ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮﺳ ﺮﮕﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﻪﻛ
ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺎﺑ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻲﺘﻗﻭ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺍ ﺔ
ﻩﺪﻨﻳﺍﺰﻓ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ
ﺖﺳﺍ , ﻲﻣ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﻪﺑ
ﺪـﺳﺭ ) 0 ) ( (c′′ X >
. ـﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻦﻴـﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﺔ
) ٩ ( ﻂﻳﺍﺮـﺷ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ
ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ :
∫
∫
∫
⇒
<
−
−
−
− 0 dp p f u
x c dp p f x c x c p u
dp p pf x c p u
) ( ) ( '
) (
"
) ( ) ( ' )) ( ' )(
(
"
) ( )) ( ' )(
(
"
π
π π
) ١٢
0 (
2 − <
∫
u"(π*)[p−c'(X*)] f(p)dp c"(X*)∫
u'(π*)f(p)dp
ﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺔ
*ﻻﺎﺑ ﻲﻨﻌﻣ ﻪﺑ π ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺒﺳﺎﺤﻣ π
X*
X =
ﺖﺳﺍ .
ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻥﺩﻮﺑ ﺔ
) ١٢ ( ـﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻂﻳﺍﺮـﺷ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﻭﺭ ﻥﺁ ﺯﺍ ﺔ
ﻪﻨﻴﺸـﻴﺑ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻡﻭﺩ
ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻞﻜﺷ .
ﺘﻜﻧ ﺔ ﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻬﻣ ﺔ
) ١٢ ( ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ )
(X* c′′
ﻲﻣ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ ﺎﻳ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﻥﺎـﻨﭽﻧﺁ ،ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲﻧﺎـﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎـﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻥﺎﻴﻣ ﻑﻼﺘﺧﺍ ﻦﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ X∗
ﻲﻣ ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﺟ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﺔ
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ,
ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ .
ﻪﻛ ﻲﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﺱﺎﺳﺍﺮﺑ
ﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺔ ) ١١ ( ﻲﻤﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺭﺩ
ﻦﻴـﻨﭼ ﻥﺍﻮـﺗ
ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻭ ﺖﻓﺮﮔ ﻱﺍ )
(X c′′
ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﻢﺘﺣ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ
.
ﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺎﻣﺍ ﺔ
) ٩ ( ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺧ :
) ١٣ (
dp p f u X c dp p pf
u
∫
∫
'(π*) ( ) = '( *) '(π*) ( )
∫
∫
=
⇒c'(X*) u'(π*)pf(p)dp u'(π*)f(p)dp
ﻲﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﺔ ) ١٠ ( ﺩﺮﻛ ﻪﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺭﺩ .
) ١٤
∫
(=
= p pf p dp X
c'( ) ( )
ﺴﻳﺎﻘﻣ ﺎﺑ ﺔ
ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ )
١٣ ( ﻭ ) ١٤ ( ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺧ :
) ١٥ (
) ( ' ) ( ' )
( ) ( ' )
( ) ( ' )
(p dp u * pf p dp u * f p dp c X c X*
pf >
∫ ∫
⇒ <∫
π π
ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺎﺠﻧﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻭ )
(X ﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻖﻘﺤﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺩﻮﻌﺻ c′
ﺔ ) ١٥ (
ﺪﻳﺎﺑ X X∗ <
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ , ﻪﻛ X∗
ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎـﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻂﻳﺍﺮـﺷ ﺭﺩ X
ﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻧﺎﻨ .١
ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﺖﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ )
ﻱﺩﺎﺼـﺘﻗﺍ ﻢﻳﺮﺤﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺁ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ
ﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺵﺮﺛﺍ ﻭ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻱﻭﺭ
ﻢﻳﺩﺮﻛ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻝﻮﺼﺤﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ (
ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﺍﺪـﻴﭘ
ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ،ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻢﺠﺣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ
ﺱﺎـﺳﺍﺮﺑ ـﻳﺮﻈﻧ
ﺔ ﺏﺎﺘـﺷ , ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﺏﻮـﻠﻄﻣ ﺢﻄـﺳ ﻭ
________________________________
________________________________
__
1- Aiginger,1987 PP:44-46.
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺩﺮﻛ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺍﺪﻴﭘ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ .
ﺽﺮﻓ ﻪﭼﺮﮔﺍ ﺖـﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﻢﻳﺩﺮﮐ
ﻲﻣ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻞﻣﺎﮐ ﺪﻨﮐ
, ﻲﻣ ﺎﻣﺍ ﺮـﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺰـﻴﻧ ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﺍﺭ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﺗ
ﺖﻓﺮﮔ .
٥
‐ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﻱﺎﻀﻓ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺲﭘ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻥﺎـﻴﺑ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺲﭘ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺓﺪﻧﺯﺎﺳ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﺮـﮔ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺔﺿﺮﻋ ﻑﺮﻃ ﻀﻓ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﻱﺩﺎﺼـﺘﻗﺍ ﻲﻧﺎﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﻱﺎ ,
ﻦـﻳﺯﻭ ﺏﺎﺘﮐ ﺭﺩ ﻪﮐ ﻥﺎﻨﭽﻤﻫ
"
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮـﺳ ﻲﻧﺎـﻨﻴﻤﻃﺍﺎﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﺬـﮔ
"
ﻒﻴﻟﺄـﺗ ﻭ ﺖﻴﺴـﻜﻳﺩ
ﻚﻳﺪﻨﻴﭘ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺮﮐﺫ
, ﺖﺴﻴﻧ ﺮﺴﻴﻣ ﺎﻀﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺲﭘ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ .
ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﻣﺍ
ﺯﺍﺪــﻧﺍ ﺲــﭘ ﺠﺗ ﻪــﺑ
ــﻳﺰ ﻝﺪــﻣ ﻚــﻳ ﻞــﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻪ ﺓﺩﺎــﺳ
ﺲــﭘ ﻑﺮﺼــﻣ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻭﺩ ﺯﺍﺪــﻧﺍ
ﻱﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻢﻳﺯﺍﺩﺮﭘ . ﻴﻤﻃﺍ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻥﺎﻨ
ﺪـﻣﺍﺭﺩ ﺭﻭﺩ ﺓ ﻡﻭﺩ ) ﻲـﻣ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﺗﺁ ﻝﺪﻣ (
ﺲﭘ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ،ﮓﻨﺟ ﺯﻭﺮﺑ ﺮﻄﺧ ﺖﻠﻋ ﻪﺑ
ﺯﺍ ﻲﺸﺨﺑ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺪـﻣﺍﺭﺩ
ﻝﻭﺍ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ
ﻩﺰﻴﮕﻧﺍ ﻲﻣ ﻱﺍ ﺩﻮﺷ .
ﻲﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻳﺮﻴﮕﺑ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺩﺮﻓ
ﻲـﺗﺁ ﻝﺎـﺳ ﻭ ﻲﻧﻮـﻨﻛ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺎﺑ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ
ﺍ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﻱﻭ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻭ ﺩﺮﻴﮕﺑ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﺖﺳ
.
) ١٦ (
) , (c1 c2
u
ﺽﺮﻓ ﺪﻴﻨﻛ ﺲﭘ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺘﺴﺑﺍﻭ ﻲﺗﺁ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻪﻛ
ﻭ ﻲﻧﻮﻨﻛ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺪﻣﺍﺭﺩ
ﻲـﺷﺎﻧ ﻦﺌﻤﻄﻣﺎـﻧ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺗﺁ ﻝﺎﺳ ﮓﻨﺟ ﺯﻭﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ .
ﺮﮔﺍ
y2
ﺪﻣﺍﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻲﺗﺁ ﺺﺨﺸﻣﺎﻧ ﺮﻬﺑ r
ﺓ ﺲـﭘ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺘﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ
ﻎـﻠﺒﻣ ﻞـﻛ ،ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
ﺎﻗ ﺼﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺱﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﻞﺑ ﻲﻣ ﻲﺗﺁ ﻑﺮ
ﺩﻮﺷ :
) ١٧ (
2 1
1 )(1 )
(y −c +r +y
ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺩﻮـﺧ ﺱﺮﺘـﺳﺩ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻩﻮﺟﻭ ﻲﻣﺎﻤﺗ ﺩﺮﻓ ﻪﻛ ﻢﻴﻨﻛ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﺪﻨﻛ ﺝﺮﺧ ﻲﺗﺁ ,
ﻱﺎﺟ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻪﺘﻜﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺮﻛﺬﺗ ﺎﺑ )
1 ( +r ﺩﺎﻤﻧ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ρ
ﻲﻣ ﻛ ﻢﻴﻨ ,
ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺧ :
) ١٨
2 (
1 1
2 (y c ) y
c =ρ − +
ﮓﻨﺟ ﻉﻮﻗﻭ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻝﺎﺣ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﮓﻨﺟ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻭ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ q
ﻴﺑ ﺪـﺘﻔ ﺪـﻣﺍﺭﺩ
y2
ﻪـﺑ
ﺎﻴﻧ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻳ
2،ﺪ ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻚﻳ c
:
) ١٩ ( ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺎﺑ
q )
0 ( )
( 1 1 2
2 y c c
c =ρ − =
ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺎﺑ
−q 1 ) ( )
( 1 1 2 2 2
2 y c y c y
c =ρ − + =
ﻪﻛ ﺎﺠﻧﺁ ﺯﺍ
2 >0
ﺖﺳﺍ y ) 0 ( )
( 2 2
2 y c
c >
ﺖﺳﺍ . ﺽﺮـﻓ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻱﺯﺎﺳ ﻩﺩﺎﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﮐ ﻢﻴﻨﮐ ﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺖﻴ
ﻊﻤﺟ ﻱﺍ ﺮﻳﺬﭘ
،ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﺮـﮔﺍ ﻲـﻟﻭ
ﻊﻤﺟ ﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﻢﻫ ﺪﺷﺎﺒﻧ , ﻧ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﻲﻠﻠﺧ ﻪﻠﺻﺎﺣ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻤ
ﻛ ﺪﻨ . ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ :
) ٢٠ ( ))}
( ( ) 1 ( )) 0 ( ( { ) ( ) ,
( 1 2 1 2 2 2
* c c u c qu c q u c y
u = + + −
ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ،ﺩﻻﻮﻛﺁ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ )
٢٠ ( ﻥﺎﻴﺑ ﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻓﺮﺼـﻣ ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎﻴﻣ ﺮﮔ ﺓ
٢ ﻪﻛ ﺍﺮﭼ ﺖﺳﺍ
c2
ﺭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻦﻴﮕﻧﺎـﻴﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺪـﻳﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻓﺩﺎﺼﺗ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻚﻳ
ﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺔ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺮﻛ
ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﻤﺟ ﺎﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻞﻛ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ،ﺩ
ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻦﻴﻣﻭﺩ ﺭﺎﻈﺘﻧﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻭ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻦﻴﻟﻭﺍ .
ﻦﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﺎﺑ ﺮﻛ
ﺮﻳﺩﺎﻘﻣ ﻥﺩ
) 0
2(
ﻭ c ) ( 2
2 y
ﺎﻌﻣ ﺯﺍ c
ﻟﺩ ﺔ ) ١٩ ( ﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺔ ) ٢٠ ( ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺧ
ﺖﺷﺍﺩ :
) ٢١ (
)}
) (
( ) 1 ( )) (
( { ) ( ) ,
( 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2
* c c u c qu y c q u y c y
u = + ρ − + − ρ − +
ـﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻥﺪﻧﺎﺳﺭ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺔ
) ٢١ ( ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺒﺴـﻧ
c1
ﻖﺘﺸـﻣ
ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺮﻔﺻ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻭ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ,ﻢﻴﻫﺩ
ﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺎﺗ ﺔ
ﺩﻮﺷ ﻅﺎﺤﻟ ﻝﻭﺍ :
) ٢٢ (
0 )) ( ( ' ) 1 ( )) 0 ( ( ' ) (
' c1 − qu c2 + −q u c2 y2 =
u ρ ρ
ﺑ ﻭ ﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻁﺮﺷ ﻱﺍﺮ ﺔ
ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻡﻭﺩ :
) ٢٣ (
)) ( (
"
) 1 ( )) 0 ( (
"
) (
" c1 2qu c2 2 q u c2 y2
u + + −
≡
∆ ρ ρ
ﺰﻳﺮﮔ ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺩﺮﻓ ﻚﻳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺎﺠﻧﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻭ
0
"<
ﺖﺳﺍ u
, ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻨﺑ
<0
ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ∆
) (
) 0
( 1 1
2 y c
c =ρ − c2(y2)= ρ(y1−c1)+y2 )
(c2 u
ﺱﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻩﻮﺟﻭ
ﺩﻮﺑ ﻪﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻭ ﻭ
ﻥﺪﻴﺳﺭ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻕﺪﺻ u
ﻲﻣ ﻛ ﺪﻨ .
ﻛ ﻝﺎﺣ ﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻪ ﺔ
ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﺎـﻳﺁ ﻪـﻛ ﻢﻴـﻨﻴﺒﺑ ﺪـﻳﺎﺑ ،ﺪﺷ ﻅﺎﺤﻟ ﻡﻭﺩ ﻭ ﻝﻭﺍ
ﮓﻨﺟ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ )
ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ (q
ﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻑﺮﺼـﻣ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ، ﺓ
ﺲـﭘ ﻪـﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻭ ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ
, ﻱﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻪﭼ ﻲﻣ
ﻛ ﺪﻨ .
ﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻲﻨﻤﺿ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻦﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺎﺑ ﺔ
) ٢٢ ( ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺧ :
) ٢٤ (
))
( (
"
) ( )) ( (
"
) (
"
))) ( ( ' )) ( ( ' (
2 2 2
2 2 1
2 2
2 1
1 0
0
y c u q c
qu c
u
c u y c u dq
dc
− + +
−
= −
ρ ρ
ρ
ﻚﺴﻳﺭ ﺮﺑ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻪﻛ ﺎﺠﻧﺁ ﺯﺍ
ﺖﺳﺍ ﺩﺮﻓ ﻱﺰﻳﺮﮔ ﺮﺴـﮐ ﺝﺮﺨﻣ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ
) ٢٤ ( ﺖـﺒﺜﻣ
ﻥﺁ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ρ ﻪﻛ
ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ) (1+r ﮒﺭﺰﺑ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﺮﺗ ,
ﻳﺎﺑ ﺪ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻑﻼﺘﺧﺍ
)) ( ( ' c2 y2
ﻭ u )) ( ( ' c2 0
ﻢﻳﺭﻭﺁ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ u
. ﺰـﻳﺮﮔ ﮏﺴﻳﺭ ﺩﺮﻓ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻞﮑﺷ
ﻪﺑ ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ
١
________________________________
________________________________
__
1- Griffiths, 2000 P:101.
ﻞﻜﺷ ۱
‐
) 0
2(
c ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﻩﻮﺟﻭ
ﺱﺮﺘﺳﺩ )
( 2
2 y c )
( ' c2 u
2 ﺎﻣﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻕﻮﻓ ﻊﺑﺎﺗ ﻖﺘﺸﻣﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ c′
ﺪﻳﺁ , ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺮﻳﺯ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻪﺑ :
ﻞﻜﺷ ٢
‐
ﻞﻜـﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻪـﻛ ﻥﺎـﻨﭽﻧﺁ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ٢
ﻲـﻣﺮﺑ ﺪـﻳﺁ
)) ( ( ' )) ( (
' c2 y2 u c20 u <
ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻭ
ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ
ﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺔ ) ٢٤ ( ﺔـﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻞـﻛ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻔﻨﻣ )
٢٤ ( ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻲـﻔﻨﻣ ﺪـﺷ
،
ﻲﻨﻌﻳ
1 <0 dq ﻦﻳﺍ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ dc ﻲﻨﻌﻳ
ﮓﻨﺟ ﻝﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ )
ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ (q
, ﻑﺮﺼﻣ
ﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺓ ﻝﻭﺍ
) (c1
ﻲﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﭘ ﻭ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ
ﺲ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ
.
ﺲﭘ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺷﺍﺩ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﺎﻣﺍ
ﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻑﺮﺼـﻣ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻝﻭﺍ ﺓ
ﮓﻨﺟ ﺓﺭﻭﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ
ﻮﺷ ﺩ .
ﻥﺁ ﻱﺍﺮــﺑ ﺲــﭘ ﻦــﻳﺍ ﻪــﻛ
ﻪــﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰــﻓﺍ ﺯﺍﺪــﻧﺍ ﻭ
ﻪــﺑ ﻞﻳﺪــﺒﺗ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮــﺳ ﺭﺍﺯﺎــﺑ ﺭﺩ
ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻗﺎﺑ ﻩﺍﺭ ﻚﻳ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ،ﺩﻮﺷ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ
ﺭﻭﺩ ﺓ ﻖﻘﺤﻣ ﮓﻨﺟ ﻲﺗﺁ
ﺩﻮﺸﻧ . ﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺮـﮔﺍ ﺮـﮕﻳﺩ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺓ
ﺪـﺑﺎﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﮓـﻨﺟ ﻉﻮـﻗﻭ ﻝﺎـﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﻲﻧﻮـﻨﻛ
ﺲﭘ ﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺮﮔﺍ ﻭ ﻪﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﺓ
ﺲـﭘ ﻦـﻳﺍ ،ﺩﺪـﻧﻮﻴﭙﻧ ﻉﻮﻗﻭ ﻪﺑ ﮓﻨﺟ ﻲﺗﺁ
ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
ﻲﻣ ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ
ﮓـﻨﺟ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻧﺮﮔﻭ ﺪﻧﺎﺳﺭ ﻱﺭﺎﻳ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ ﺎـﻬﻨﺗ
ﻑﺮﺼـﻣ
ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ .
ﻩﺭﺍﺰﮔ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺘﺒﻟﺍ ﺖﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺴﻴﻧ ﺎﻨﻌﻣ ﻦﻳﺪﺑ
ﻲـﻨﻛﺍﺮﭘ ﻪﻌﻳﺎـﺷ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺍﺭﺍﺬﮔ
ﮓﻨﺟ ﻉﻮﻗﻭ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ,
ﺲﭘ ﺪﻨﻧﺍﻮﺘﺑ
ﺲﭘ ﻪﭼﺮﮔﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺍﺮﭼ ،ﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻫﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ
ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ
