PDF Korea Mid-Term Energy Demand Outlook 2019 (2018~2023) - KEEI

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2019

K E E I

K o r e a M i d - t e r m E n e r g y D e m a n d O u t l o o k ( 2 0 1 8 ~ 2 0 2 3 )

405-11, Jongga-ro, Jung-gu, Ulsan, Korea, 44543 Tel. +82-52-714-2114 Fax. +82-52-714-2028 E-mail. [email protected]

http://www.keei.re.kr

Korea Mid-term Energy Demand

Outlook (2018~2023)

2019

Korea Mid-term Energy Demand

Outlook (2018~2023)

KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE

ISSN 2287-2841 9 5

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2019

Korea Mid-term Energy Demand

Outlook (2018~2023)

KOREA

ENERGY

ECONOMICS

INSTITUTE

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2 KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE Published by the Korea Energy Economics Institute (KEEI), Mid-term Energy Demand Outlook takes a closer look at the global energy market and supply and demand trends in domestic energy and examines the outlook for short-term energy demand.

This report outlines the recent changes in the supply and demand of energy and provides important data and policy implications in an effort to contribute to the establishment and adjustment of a series of energy policies by the government.

This report is written by the Energy Demand and Supply Division of the Center for Energy Information and Statistics in cooperation with the Energy Statistics Research Division of KEEI and other related research divisions.

Cherl-Hyun Kim (Coal, Electricity) wrote the report with the participation and support of Byunguk Kang (Oil and Gas), SungJae Lee (Heat and Renewables). Also, the report was reviewed carefully by Soo-il Kim and Gwang-su Park.

If you have any further inquiries, please send an email to [email protected] or

call +82-52-714-2102.

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Korea Mid-term Energy Demand Outlook 2019 3

Summary

Energy Trends

□ Total Primary Energy Supply (“TPES”) has grown at much slower rate since 2012, posting the annual average growth rate of 1.9% from 2013 to 2018.

o The growth of TPES remained stagnant at around 0% from 2012 to 2013 but slowly recovered to around 2% in 2017. But the growth of TPES fell back to around 1% in 2018.

o The growth of TPES has not been strong compared to the past, which is partly because of the relatively stronger performance of low energy consuming industries and the slower growth of fuel input to power stations as a result of a slowdown in power demand.

□ The amount of energy used as feedstock and fuel have grown more slowly for the past five years, although the feedstock energy use made a relatively decent growth.

o The feedstock energy use (non-energy oil & coking coal) had grown at an average annual rate of 4.4%

from 2008 to 2013 driven by demand for bituminous coal in the steelmaking sector, but the growth rate declined to 2.8% during the recent five years (2013-2018).

□ The use of all energy sources, except petroleum, has grown more slowly or continued to decline for the past five years.

o Petroleum consumption rose by 2.5% on annual average between 2013 and 2018 due to lower prices and the expansion of the petrochemical plants.

o Coal consumption grew by mere 2.2% on annual average between 2013 and 2018, as the consumption plunged in the steelmaking and power generation sectors owing to the sluggish steel industry and limits on the maxim outputs of coal-fired power plants.

o Gas consumption recorded an annual average growth of 8.0% from 2008 to 2013, and then, increased by 0.3% on annual average from 2013 to 2018, as the consumption decreased in the power generation and city gas production sectors from 2014 to 2015.

o The total nuclear generation dropped by 0.8% on annual average from 2013 to 2018 owing to the closure of two reactors, the government’s stronger safety inspections and increased preventive maintenance, although the generation increased from 2014 to 2015 with the commissioning of new reactors.

o The growth of Electricity consumption slowed down to 2.1% from 2013 to 2018 as a result of sluggish

exports and the government’s electricity saving policies.

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4 KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE

□ While the momentum of energy consumption in the industrial sector has weakened as of late, low oil prices have fortified the momentum of the transportation sector.

o Industrial energy consumption grew by 2.5% on annual average from 2013 to 2018, led by the petrochemical sector. The pace of growth, however, was much slower than in the past, especially in the primary metals sector, due to the economic slowdown.

o Transport energy use surged from 2015 to 2016 due to a sharp drop in oil prices. Since then, the growth rate continuously declined along with increasing oil prices, posting an average annual growth rate of 2.9% from 2013 to 2018.

o The growth rate of energy consumption in buildings continued to decline due to the stagnant population growth and improved energy efficiency. From 2013 to 2018, however, the consumption grew faster owing to the temperature effect (2.7% on annual average).

Energy Outlook

□ TPES is projected to grow at an annual average rate of 1.5% from 2018 to 2023, reaching 330.7Mtoe in 2023.

o TPES is expected to grow at slower rates during the forecast period (2018-2023) than the past five years, as the domestic economy is likely to stabilize at a low level.

o The annual growth rate of TPES and the economic growth rates are expected to be slightly different from the previous year due to temperature effect and the construction of new petrochemical plants.

o TPES, except feedstock energy, is projected to increase by 1.5% on annual average for the forecast period.

□ Energy intensity is projected to improve, while per capita energy consumption is likely to continue to grow.

o Energy intensity is forecast to decline at an annual average rate of 0.8% from 0.170 in 2018 to 0.163 in 2023

o Per capita energy use is expected to grow at an annual average rate of 1.4% from 6.0toe in 2018 to 6.4toe in 2023.

□ The use of almost all energy sources, except nuclear energy, is expected to grow more slowly from

2018 to 2023 compared to the previous years.

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Korea Mid-term Energy Demand Outlook 2019 5 o Petroleum (↑1.2% on annual average): Petroleum demand is forecast to grow more slowly during the outlook period than in the previous 5 years, as a moderate recovery in global oil price is expected.

o Coal (↓0.6%) the growth rate of coal consumption will likely decline for the forecast period, as its industrial use remains stagnant due to slow recovery in iron & steel business, and the growth rate drops in the power generation sector partly because of the government’s restrictions on coal-fired power plants.

o Gas (↓2.4%) the growth of gas consumption is forecast to slow down for the forecast period, driven by a fast rate decline in the power generation sector, although gas use for city gas production grows moderately, led by the industrial sector.

o Nuclear ( ↑ 10.1%): Nuclear demand is projected to grow rapidly, as higher capacity factors are to be rebounded and five new reactors commissioned.

o Electricity (↑1.8%) Electricity consumption is projected to grow by less than 2% on annual average due to slower growth in the economy and relatively weak growth in large energy consuming businesses.

□ Total Final Consumption (“TFC”) is expected to grow at an annual average rate of 1.5% during the outlook period reaching 256.6Mtoe in 2023.

o Industry (↑1.6% on annual average) energy consumption is expected to increase, led by the petrochemical and fabricated metals sectors, though the annual average growth rate is projected to be around 1%, as the economy is expected to stabilize at a low level.

o Transport (↑1.2%) energy consumption will likely grow at a slower rate of slightly over 1% from 2018 to 2023 with no more effect of fuel tax relief from 2020 and subsequent moderate growth in oil prices.

o Buildings (↑1.7%) Final energy use in the buildings sector is forecast to increase by around 1% on annual average over the forecast period, led by electricity and gas.

Key features and Implications

□ As a result of the energy transition policy, the greenhouse gas emissions from power generation are expected to decline by 31 million tCO

2

e in 2023 from the 2018 figure.

o According to the 8

^th

Basic Plan for Electricity Supply & Demand, renewable & other energy, nuclear

energy and coal will make up the largest share of new installations (23.6GW) between 2018 and

2023.

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6 KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE o The total power generation is projected to increase by 2.4% on annual average during the outlook period, led by nuclear energy and renewable & other energy, and it is on the path toward reaching 618TWh by 2023.

o Coal, petroleum and gas-based power generations are expected to decline despite the growth in total generation, and accordingly, the greenhouse gas emissions from power plants will likely continue to decline.

o The share of fossil fuel-based power generation (coal, gas, oil) is forecast to consistently decrease during the outlook period from 69.7% in 2018 to low-to-mid-50% in 2023.

□ Energy demand growth is likely to slow down, especially coal and gas, led by the industrial sector.

o Coal and gas were the main drivers of the growth of TPES. However, the use of both energy sources will likely decrease for the forecast period, leading the decline in energy consumption growth.

o Final energy demand is expected to grow at slower rates in all end-use sectors, with the industrial sector leading the trend.

□ Considering economic uncertainty, the growth rates of TPES and TFC are expected to be 1.2 ~2.0%

and 1.1~2.0% on annual average during the outlook period.

o The economic growth rates in low and high growth scenarios are calculated by adding or subtracting 1.0% to/from the rate in base scenario.

o In high & low growth scenarios, TPES is expected to grow at an annual average rate of 2.0% and 1.2% respectively during the forecast period to reach 338.9Mtoe and 325.6Mtoe by 2023.

o In high & low growth scenarios, TFC will likely increase by 2.0% and 1.1% on annual average to 263.2Mtoe and 251.8Mtoe respectively in 2023.

o In high and low growth scenarios, energy intensity is expected to improve by 1.2% and 0.2% on

annual average to 0.160(toe/million won) and 0.169(toe/million won) in 2023.

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Korea Mid-term Energy Demand Outlook 2019 7

The Main Indicator and Energy Outlook Result

Main Economic and Energy Indicators - BAU Scenario

CAGR (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 08-18 18-23

Economy and Population

GDP (2010 trillion won) 1 658.0 1 706.9 1 760.8 1 807.7 1 847.1 1 892.6 1 940.1 1 983.0 2 025.0 3.2 2.3 Industrial Production(2010=100) 100.0 102.2 104.7 106.1 106.3 107.2 108.4 109.4 110.2 2.9 0.8 Crude Oil Price (Dubai, USD/bbl) 50.8 41.2 53.2 69.4 63.9 60.4 60.9 61.3 61.8 - 3.0 - 2.3 Working Days 274.0 273.0 269.5 270.0 272.5 275.0 276.0 275.5 274.5 - 0.1 0.3

Population (million) 51.0 51.2 51.4 51.6 51.7 51.8 51.8 51.8 51.9 0.5 0.1

Average Temperature (ºC) 13.4 13.6 13.1 13.0 13.2 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 0.0 - 0.1 Cooling Degree days 82.3 154.1 132.7 209.0 110.8 111.6 111.6 111.6 111.6 6.9 - 11.8 Heating Degree days 2 298.0 2 386.8 2 517.1 2 597.8 2 438.0 2 542.2 2 525.6 2 525.6 2 525.6 0.3 - 0.6

Energy Indicators

Total Primary Energy Demand (Mtoe) 286.8 293.7 302.1 307.3 306.3 313.2 318.6 325.6 330.7 2.5 1.5 Energy Intensity (toe/million won) 0.173 0.172 0.172 0.170 0.166 0.166 0.165 0.165 0.164 - 0.7 - 0.8 TPED/capita (toe/capita) 5.623 5.734 5.881 5.955 5.923 6.048 6.148 6.280 6.376 2.0 1.4 Electricity Generation (TWh) 528.1 540.4 553.5 570.6 571.9 586.2 597.2 608.1 618.0 3.1 1.6 Electricity Generation/capita (MWh/capita) 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.9 2.5 1.5 Electricity Demand/capita (MWh/capita) 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.2 10.2 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.1 2.6 1.7

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8 KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE Energy Demand - BAU Scenario

CAGR (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 08-18 18-23 Total Primary Energy Supply

Coal (Mton) 135.1 129.3 139.8 143.2 132.6 131.2 132.4 138.7 138.6 3.3 - 0.6 Oil (Mbbl) 853.1 921.1 937.1 929.3 928.7 941.8 955.6 971.7 985.2 2.0 1.2

Gas (Bm³) 33.4 34.9 36.4 40.9 38.1 37.6 37.8 36.0 36.2 4.1 - 2.4

Hydro (TWh) 5.8 6.6 7.0 7.3 7.4 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 2.7 - 0.7

Nuclear (TWh) 164.8 162.0 148.4 133.5 169.0 194.1 200.0 209.0 216.0 - 1.2 10.1 Other Renewables (Mtoe) 12.8 13.6 15.8 17.5 19.6 21.5 23.3 25.3 27.4 12.9 9.4

Total (Mtoe) 286.8 293.7 302.1 307.3 306.3 313.2 318.6 325.6 330.7 2.5 1.5

Coal 85.3 81.4 86.2 88.2 81.6 80.6 81.1 84.5 84.3 3.0 - 0.9

Oil 109.1 117.6 119.4 118.1 117.7 119.1 120.8 122.7 124.3 1.7 1.0

Gas 43.6 45.5 47.5 53.5 49.8 49.1 49.3 47.1 47.2 4.1 - 2.4

Nuclear 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.6 - 0.7

Hydro 34.8 34.2 31.6 28.4 36.0 41.3 42.6 44.5 46.0 - 1.3 10.1

Other Renewables 12.8 13.6 15.8 17.5 19.6 21.5 23.3 25.3 27.4 12.9 9.4

Total Final Consumption

Coal (Mton) 52.6 49.0 50.4 51.5 50.3 51.0 51.5 51.9 52.0 2.8 0.2

Oil (Mbbl) 838.5 899.3 926.6 917.8 921.1 934.4 948.7 966.4 980.1 2.2 1.3

Gas (Bm³) 20.8 21.3 22.6 24.3 23.5 23.8 24.1 24.5 24.9 2.6 0.5

Electricity (TWh) 483.7 497.0 507.7 526.1 528.9 543.1 553.8 564.6 574.4 3.2 1.8

Heat (Mtoe) 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 4.9 1.6

Other Renewables (Mtoe) 10.6 10.9 12.5 13.7 14.9 16.2 17.5 18.8 20.2 11.2 8.1

Total (Mtoe) 217.9 225.1 233.9 237.9 238.0 243.1 247.5 252.4 256.7 2.7 1.5

Coal 34.8 32.3 33.4 34.0 33.0 33.2 33.2 33.2 33.1 2.8 - 0.5

Oil 106.9 114.3 117.9 116.5 116.6 118.1 119.8 121.9 123.6 1.8 1.2

Gas 22.1 22.7 24.1 25.9 25.5 26.3 26.6 27.1 27.5 2.7 1.2

Electricity 41.6 42.7 43.7 45.2 45.5 46.7 47.6 48.6 49.4 3.2 1.8

Heat 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 4.9 1.6

Industry 135.3 137.8 144.3 146.3 146.4 149.8 152.4 155.5 158.1 3.2 1.6

Transport 39.9 42.3 42.8 42.6 43.3 43.6 44.2 44.8 45.3 1.8 1.2

Buildings 42.8 45.0 46.8 49.1 48.3 49.8 50.9 52.1 53.3 2.0 1.7

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Korea Mid-term Energy Demand Outlook 2019 9 Energy Demand - BAU Scenario

(yoy, %)

CAGR (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 08-18 18-23 Total Primary Energy Supply

Coal (Mton) 1.3 - 4.3 8.1 2.5 - 7.4 - 1.0 0.9 4.8 - 0.1 3.3 - 0.6

Oil (Mbbl) 4.2 8.0 1.7 - 0.8 - 0.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.4 2.0 1.2

Gas (Bm³) - 8.7 4.4 4.3 12.5 - 6.8 - 1.4 0.4 - 4.6 0.4 4.1 - 2.4

Hydro (TWh) - 25.9 14.5 5.5 3.9 2.4 - 5.4 - 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.7 - 0.7

Nuclear (TWh) 5.3 - 1.7 - 8.4 - 10.1 26.6 14.8 3.1 4.5 3.3 - 1.2 10.1

Total (Mtoe) 1.4 2.4 2.9 1.7 - 0.3 2.2 1.7 2.2 1.6 2.5 1.5

Coal 0.7 - 4.6 5.8 2.4 - 7.5 - 1.3 0.6 4.3 - 0.3 3.0 - 0.9

Oil 4.2 7.8 1.5 - 1.1 - 0.4 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.0

Gas - 8.7 4.4 4.4 12.5 - 6.8 - 1.4 0.4 - 4.6 0.4 4.1 - 2.4

Nuclear - 25.9 14.5 6.5 3.9 2.4 - 5.4 - 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.6 - 0.7

Hydro 5.3 - 1.7 - 7.5 - 10.1 26.6 14.8 3.1 4.5 3.3 - 1.3 10.1

Coal (Mton) - 0.8 - 6.8 2.7 2.2 - 2.3 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.2 2.8 0.2

Oil (Mbbl) 4.1 7.3 3.0 - 0.9 0.4 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.4 2.2 1.3

Gas (Bm³) - 5.9 2.3 6.3 7.3 - 3.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 2.6 0.5

Electricity (TWh) 1.3 2.8 2.2 3.6 0.5 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.7 3.2 1.8

Heat (Mtoe) 39.9 11.0 11.8 10.3 - 4.5 4.6 2.3 2.4 3.5 4.9 1.6

Total (Mtoe) 2.1 3.3 3.9 1.7 0.0 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.7 2.7 1.5

Coal - 2.1 - 7.2 3.4 1.9 - 2.9 0.7 0.0 0.1 - 0.5 2.8 - 0.5

Oil 4.0 6.9 3.1 - 1.2 0.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.2

Gas - 5.9 2.6 6.0 7.5 - 1.4 3.0 1.4 1.6 1.6 2.7 1.2

Electricity 1.3 2.8 2.2 3.6 0.5 2.7 2.0 1.9 1.7 3.2 1.8

Heat 39.9 11.0 11.8 10.3 - 4.5 4.6 2.3 2.4 3.5 4.9 1.6

Industry - 0.1 1.9 4.7 1.4 0.1 2.3 1.7 2.1 1.6 3.2 1.6

Transport 7.0 6.1 1.2 - 0.5 1.8 0.5 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.8 1.2

Buildings 5.0 5.2 4.2 4.8 - 1.7 3.3 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.7

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10 KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE Energy Demand by Sector - BAU Scenario

(Mtoe)

CAGR (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 08-18 18-23 Industry 135.3 137.8 144.3 146.3 146.4 149.8 152.4 155.5 158.1 3.2 1.6

Coal 34.1 31.7 32.8 33.6 32.6 32.9 32.8 32.9 32.7 3.1 - 0.5

Oil 62.2 66.8 69.8 69.0 69.1 70.6 71.9 73.8 75.2 2.3 1.7

Gas 8.1 8.0 8.8 9.9 10.0 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.8 5.3 1.7

Electricity 22.8 23.2 23.8 24.4 24.6 25.2 25.6 26.1 26.5 3.8 1.6

Heat - - - -

Transport 39.9 42.3 42.8 42.6 43.3 43.6 44.2 44.8 45.3 1.8 1.2

Coal - - - -

Oil 37.9 40.3 40.9 40.4 41.1 41.3 41.9 42.4 42.9 1.6 1.2

Gas 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 4.8 0.5

Electricity 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.7 4.5

Heat - - - -

Buildings* 42.8 45.0 46.8 49.1 48.3 49.8 50.9 52.1 53.3 2.0 1.7

Coal 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 - 8.8 - 3.2

Oil 6.8 7.1 7.2 7.1 6.3 6.2 5.9 5.8 5.6 - 0.9 - 4.7

Gas 12.7 13.4 14.0 14.7 14.3 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.5 1.2 1.0

Electricity 18.6 19.3 19.6 20.6 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.6 2.4 1.9

Heat 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 4.9 1.6

Transform 134.2 135.7 137.5 142.3 140.5 143.9 146.3 149.8 152.0 2.4 1.3

Coal 50.6 49.2 52.8 54.2 48.6 47.4 47.8 51.3 51.2 3.1 - 1.1

Oil 2.2 3.3 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 - 5.6 - 16.3

Gas 43.2 45.0 46.7 52.6 48.5 47.3 47.5 45.2 45.4 4.0 - 2.9

Nuclear 34.8 34.2 31.6 28.4 36.0 41.3 42.6 44.5 46.0 - 1.3 10.1

Hydro 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.6 - 0.7

Renewables 2.2 2.6 3.3 3.8 4.7 5.3 5.9 6.5 7.2 23.9 13.5

* include residential, commercial, public∙etc usage

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Korea Mid-term Energy Demand Outlook 2019 11 Coal - BAU Scenario

(Mton)

CAGR (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 08-18 18-23 Total Coal Demand 135.1 129.3 139.8 143.2 132.6 131.2 132.4 138.7 138.6 3.3 - 0.6

Transform 82.5 80.3 89.4 91.8 82.3 80.2 81.0 86.8 86.6 3.5 - 1.1

Power Generation 82.5 80.3 89.4 91.8 82.3 80.2 81.0 86.8 86.6 3.5 - 1.1

Heat - - - -

Gas Manufacture - - - -

Total Final Consumption 52.6 49.0 50.4 51.5 50.3 51.0 51.5 51.9 52.0 2.8 0.2

Industry 51.1 47.8 49.3 50.5 49.5 50.4 50.9 51.4 51.6 3.3 0.4

Transport - - - -

Buildings 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 - 8.8 - 13.1

-

Consumption by products

Anthracite 10.5 10.8 8.3 9.2 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.5 - 0.5 - 1.6

Bituminous 124.5 118.5 131.5 134.0 123.8 122.5 123.8 130.2 130.2 3.6 - 0.6

Iron making 36.8 33.5 36.3 36.9 36.1 36.9 37.3 37.8 38.0 4.6 0.6

Cement 4.7 4.6 4.2 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 - 3.4 - 0.3

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12 KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE Oil - BAU Scenario

(Mbbl)

CAGR (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 08-18 18-23 Total Oil Demand 853.1 921.1 937.1 929.3 928.7 941.8 955.6 971.7 985.2 2.0 1.2

Transform 14.6 21.8 10.5 11.5 7.6 7.4 6.9 5.3 5.1 - 5.2 - 15.1

Power Generation 12.8 19.3 8.1 8.3 5.4 4.8 4.3 2.6 2.3 - 6.1 - 22.8

Heat 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 - 4.2 - 1.3

Gas Manufacture 1.0 1.2 1.2 2.0 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 - 0.8 - 3.1

Industry 501.0 542.6 567.0 562.2 564.1 577.4 588.8 604.2 616.3 2.9 1.9

Transport 284.0 300.5 303.2 299.8 304.8 305.9 310.4 314.0 317.4 1.5 1.1

Buildings 53.5 56.3 56.4 55.9 52.1 51.1 49.4 48.1 46.5 - 0.8 - 3.6

Gasoline 76.6 78.9 79.6 79.7 81.9 82.1 83.4 84.6 85.5 2.4 1.4

Diesel (including Transformation) 153.3 163.5 165.9 164.1 168.3 169.1 171.6 173.0 174.2 2.0 1.2 Kerosene (including

Transformation) 16.2 19.1 19.0 18.9 16.9 16.4 15.7 14.9 14.2 - 3.8 - 5.5

B-C (including Transformation) 38.3 47.5 35.8 33.3 27.6 26.8 25.5 23.6 22.8 - 7.1 - 7.3

Jet Oil 34.4 37.0 38.2 39.9 40.1 40.6 41.9 43.3 44.6 4.8 2.3

LPG (including Transformation) 89.9 109.0 105.1 108.6 110.0 112.2 113.7 114.6 115.6 0.6 1.3

Naphtha 410.8 430.1 458.4 451.2 449.9 464.1 474.8 490.0 501.6 3.8 2.1

Other Non-Energy 33.7 36.1 35.1 33.7 34.0 30.3 29.0 27.7 26.6 2.2 - 4.6

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Korea Mid-term Energy Demand Outlook 2019 13 Gas - BAU Scenario

CAGR (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 08-18 18-23 Total Gas Demand (Mton) 33.4 34.9 36.4 40.9 38.1 37.6 37.8 36.0 36.2 4.1 - 2.4

Transform 33.1 34.5 35.8 40.2 37.1 36.2 36.4 34.6 34.7 3.9 - 2.9

Heat 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 14.1 1.3

Gas Manufacture 17.0 17.5 18.5 20.0 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.5 2.5 0.5

Industry 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 - 15.9

City Gas (Bm³) 20.8 21.3 22.6 24.3 23.5 23.8 24.1 24.5 24.9 2.6 0.5

Industry* 7.3 7.2 7.8 8.7 8.4 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.6 4.5 - 0.3

Transport 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 5.0 0.6

Buildings 12.2 12.8 13.6 14.3 13.9 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.0 1.5 1.0

* exclude industrial LNG usage

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14 KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE Electricity - BAU Scenario

(TWh)

CAGR (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 08-18 18-23 Net Electricity Demand 528.1 540.4 553.5 570.6 571.9 586.2 597.2 608.1 618.0 3.1 1.6

Own use and Losses 44.4 43.4 45.8 44.5 43.0 43.1 43.3 43.5 43.6 1.8 -0.4

Industry 265.6 270.0 276.7 283.7 285.5 292.9 298.1 303.3 307.6 3.8 1.6

Transport 2.2 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.7 2.7 4.5

Buildings 215.8 224.4 228.3 239.5 240.4 247.0 252.4 257.8 263.1 2.4 1.9

Installed Electrical Capacity (GW)* 97.6 104.1 116.4 118.5 124.9 130.9 134.7 139.8 142.0 5.0 3.7

Coal 27.3 31.4 36.8 37.0 36.7 37.1 39.0 41.8 41.8 4.5 2.5

Oil 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.9 2.7 2.7 -1.3 -8.9

Gas 32.2 32.6 37.5 37.9 40.0 41.7 41.7 41.7 41.1 7.4 1.7

Nuclear 21.7 22.2 22.5 21.9 23.7 26.1 26.1 27.5 28.2 2.1 5.2

Hydro 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 1.7 0.0

Electricity Generation of Power Plants* 528.1 540.4 553.5 570.6 571.9 586.2 597.2 608.1 618.0 3.2 1.6

Coal 204.7 213.8 238.8 238.4 217.1 212.9 214.9 230.4 229.9 3.2 -0.7

Oil 31.7 14.0 5.3 5.7 3.8 3.4 3.0 1.9 1.6 -5.3 -22.4

Gas 100.8 121.0 126.0 153.5 134.0 123.1 121.3 103.3 100.8 7.3 -8.1

Nuclear 164.8 162.0 148.4 133.5 169.0 194.1 200.0 209.0 216.0 -1.2 10.1

Hydro 5.8 6.6 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 1.2 -0.7

Other Renewables 20.3 23.0 28.0 32.2 40.6 45.7 50.9 56.5 62.7 - 14.2

Fuel Consumption of Power Plants (Mtoe)* 109.8 110.6 110.8 112.9 112.3 115.1 117.1 120.1 121.7 2.2 1.5

Coal 50.6 49.2 52.8 54.2 48.6 47.4 47.8 51.3 51.2 3.1 -1.1

Oil 2.0 3.0 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 -6.4 -23.0

Gas 19.0 20.2 20.4 23.5 20.5 18.9 18.6 15.8 15.4 4.9 -8.1

Nuclear 34.8 34.2 31.6 28.4 36.0 41.3 42.6 44.5 46.0 -1.3 10.1

Hydro 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.6 -0.7

* District Heat is classified by fuel type since 2014

(16)

Korea Mid-term Energy Demand Outlook 2019 15 Heat and Other Renewables - BAU Scenario

(Mtoe)

CAGR (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 08-18 18-23

Net Heat Demand 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 5.3 2.0

Own use and Losses 0.1 0.0 0.0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - 7.1 - 175.2

Industry - - - -

Transport - - - -

Buildings 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 4.9 1.6

Heat Production by fuel

Coal - - - -

Oil 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 6.0 2.2

Gas 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.1 1.5

Nuclear - - - -

Hydro - - - -

Other Renewables - - - -

Fuel Consumption of District Heat

Coal - - - -

Oil 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 - 4.1 - 1.5

Gas 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 14.2 1.3

Nuclear - - - -

Hydro - - - -

Other Renewables 14.1 15.0 17.3 19.1 21.2 23.0 24.8 26.8 28.9 11.5 8.7

Hydro 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.6 - 0.7

Transform 2.2 2.6 3.3 3.8 4.7 5.3 5.9 6.5 7.2 23.9 13.5

Industry 8.1 8.1 9.0 9.4 10.1 10.8 11.5 12.2 13.0 9.2 6.6

Transport 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 14.4 2.8

Buildings 2.1 2.4 3.1 3.5 4.1 4.7 5.2 5.8 6.4 18.4 12.6

(17)

16 KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE Main Economic and Energy Indicators - HEG Scenario

GACR (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 08-18 18-23

Economy and Population

GDP (2010 trillion won) 1 658.0 1 706.9 1 760.8 1 807.7 1 860.9 1 925.4 1 992.9 2 056.9 2 121.0 3.2 3.2 Industrial Production(2010=100) 100.0 102.2 104.7 106.1 106.6 107.9 109.7 111.1 112.3 2.9 1.1 Crude Oil Price (Dubai, USD/bbl) 50.8 41.2 53.2 69.4 63.9 60.4 60.9 61.3 61.8 - 3.0 - 2.3 Working Days 274.0 273.0 269.5 270.0 272.5 275.0 276.0 275.5 274.5 - 0.1 0.3

(18)

Korea Mid-term Energy Demand Outlook 2019 17 Energy Demand - HEG Scenario

CACR (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 08-18 18-23 Total Primary Energy Supply

Coal (Mton) 135.1 129.3 139.8 143.2 132.8 131.8 133.5 140.2 140.5 3.3 - 0.4 Oil (Mbbl) 853.1 921.1 937.1 929.3 933.3 951.5 968.1 986.8 1 002.3 2.0 1.5

Gas (Bm³) 33.4 34.9 36.4 40.9 38.4 38.7 39.5 38.5 39.4 4.1 - 0.8

Hydro (TWh) 5.8 6.6 7.0 7.3 7.4 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 2.7 - 0.7

Total (Mtoe) 286.8 293.7 302.1 307.3 307.6 316.4 323.5 332.2 338.9 2.5 2.0

Coal 85.3 81.4 86.2 88.2 81.8 81.0 81.7 85.5 85.4 3.0 - 0.6

Oil 109.1 117.6 119.4 118.1 118.3 120.3 122.3 124.6 126.4 1.7 1.4

Gas 43.6 45.5 47.5 53.5 50.2 50.5 51.6 50.3 51.5 4.1 - 0.8

Nuclear 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.6 - 0.7

Hydro 34.8 34.2 31.6 28.4 36.0 41.3 42.6 44.5 46.0 - 1.3 10.1

Coal (Mton) 52.6 49.0 50.4 51.5 50.5 51.6 52.5 53.4 53.9 2.8 0.9

Oil (Mbbl) 838.5 899.3 926.6 917.8 925.7 944.0 961.1 981.5 997.2 2.2 1.7

Gas (Bm³) 20.8 21.3 22.6 24.3 23.5 23.9 24.2 24.7 25.2 2.6 0.7

Electricity (TWh) 483.7 497.0 507.7 526.1 531.2 551.5 567.6 584.1 599.8 3.2 2.7

Heat (Mtoe) 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.1 4.9 2.5

Total (Mtoe) 217.9 225.1 233.9 237.9 239.2 245.9 251.5 257.8 263.2 2.7 2.0

Coal 34.8 32.3 33.4 34.0 33.1 33.6 33.9 34.1 34.2 2.8 0.1

Oil 106.9 114.3 117.9 116.5 117.2 119.3 121.4 123.8 125.7 1.8 1.5

Gas 22.1 22.7 24.1 25.9 25.5 26.3 26.8 27.3 27.8 2.7 1.4

Electricity 41.6 42.7 43.7 45.2 45.7 47.4 48.8 50.2 51.6 3.2 2.7

Heat 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.1 4.9 2.5

Industry 135.3 137.8 144.3 146.3 146.9 151.1 154.5 158.6 161.9 3.2 2.0

Transport 39.9 42.3 42.8 42.6 43.6 44.1 44.7 45.3 45.8 1.8 1.5

Buildings 42.8 45.0 46.8 49.1 48.7 50.7 52.3 53.9 55.5 2.0 2.5

(19)

18 KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE Energy Demand - HEG Scenario

(yoy, %)

GACR (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 08-18 18-23 Total Primary Energy Supply

Coal (Mton) 1.3 - 4.3 8.1 2.5 - 7.3 - 0.7 1.2 5.0 0.2 3.3 - 0.4

Oil (Mbbl) 4.2 8.0 1.7 - 0.8 0.4 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.6 2.0 1.5

Gas (Bm³) - 8.7 4.4 4.3 12.5 - 6.1 0.7 2.1 - 2.5 2.3 4.1 - 0.8

Hydro (TWh) - 25.9 14.5 5.5 3.9 2.4 - 5.4 - 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.7 - 0.7

Nuclear (TWh) 5.3 - 1.7 - 8.4 - 10.1 26.6 14.8 3.1 4.5 3.3 - 1.2 10.1

Total (Mtoe) 1.4 2.4 2.9 1.7 0.1 2.9 2.2 2.7 2.0 2.5 2.0

Coal 0.7 - 4.6 5.8 2.4 - 7.3 - 1.0 0.9 4.6 - 0.0 3.0 - 0.6

Oil 4.2 7.8 1.5 - 1.1 0.1 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.4

Gas - 8.7 4.4 4.4 12.5 - 6.1 0.7 2.1 - 2.5 2.3 4.1 - 0.8

Nuclear - 25.9 14.5 6.5 3.9 2.4 - 5.4 - 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.6 - 0.7

Hydro 5.3 - 1.7 - 7.5 - 10.1 26.6 14.8 3.1 4.5 3.3 - 1.3 10.1

Coal (Mton) - 0.8 - 6.8 2.7 2.2 - 1.9 2.3 1.7 1.6 1.0 2.8 0.9

Oil (Mbbl) 4.1 7.3 3.0 - 0.9 0.9 2.0 1.8 2.1 1.6 2.2 1.7

Gas (Bm³) - 5.9 2.3 6.3 7.3 - 3.1 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.8 2.6 0.7

Electricity (TWh) 1.3 2.8 2.2 3.6 1.0 3.8 2.9 2.9 2.7 3.2 2.7

Heat (Mtoe) 39.9 11.0 11.8 10.3 - 3.0 6.4 2.7 2.9 4.0 4.9 2.5

Total (Mtoe) 2.1 3.3 3.9 1.7 0.5 2.8 2.3 2.5 2.1 2.7 2.0

Coal - 2.1 - 7.2 3.4 1.9 - 2.5 1.4 0.8 0.8 0.3 2.8 0.1

Oil 4.0 6.9 3.1 - 1.2 0.6 1.8 1.7 2.0 1.5 1.8 1.5

Gas - 5.9 2.6 6.0 7.5 - 1.3 3.2 1.7 1.9 1.8 2.7 1.4

Electricity 1.3 2.8 2.2 3.6 1.0 3.8 2.9 2.9 2.7 3.2 2.7

Heat 39.9 11.0 11.8 10.3 - 3.0 6.4 2.7 2.9 4.0 4.9 2.5

Industry - 0.1 1.9 4.7 1.4 0.4 2.9 2.3 2.6 2.1 3.2 2.0

Transport 7.0 6.1 1.2 - 0.5 2.4 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.8 1.5

Buildings 5.0 5.2 4.2 4.8 - 0.8 4.3 3.0 3.2 3.0 2.0 2.5

(20)

Korea Mid-term Energy Demand Outlook 2019 19 Energy Demand by Sector - HEG Scenario

(Mtoe)

GACR (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 08-18 18-23 Industry 135.3 137.8 144.3 146.3 146.9 151.1 154.5 158.6 161.9 3.2 2.0

Coal 34.1 31.7 32.8 33.6 32.8 33.2 33.5 33.8 33.9 3.1 0.2

Oil 62.2 66.8 69.8 69.0 69.4 71.1 72.7 74.8 76.5 2.3 2.1

Gas 8.1 8.0 8.8 9.9 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.8 5.3 1.8

Electricity 22.8 23.2 23.8 24.4 24.7 25.6 26.3 27.1 27.7 3.8 2.6

Heat - - - -

Transport 39.9 42.3 42.8 42.6 43.6 44.1 44.7 45.3 45.8 1.8 1.5

Coal - - - -

Oil 37.9 40.3 40.9 40.4 41.4 41.8 42.4 43.0 43.4 1.6 1.5

Gas 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 4.8 0.5

Electricity 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.7 4.5

Heat - - - -

Buildings* 42.8 45.0 46.8 49.1 48.7 50.7 52.3 53.9 55.5 2.0 2.5

Coal 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 - 8.8 - 2.4

Oil 6.8 7.1 7.2 7.1 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.8 - 0.9 - 3.9

Gas 12.7 13.4 14.0 14.7 14.3 14.8 15.0 15.4 15.7 1.2 1.2

Electricity 18.6 19.3 19.6 20.6 20.8 21.5 22.2 22.9 23.6 2.4 2.7

Heat 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.1 4.9 2.5

Transform 134.2 135.7 137.5 142.3 140.9 145.3 148.6 153.0 156.2 2.4 1.9

Coal 50.6 49.2 52.8 54.2 48.6 47.4 47.8 51.3 51.2 3.1 - 1.1

Oil 2.2 3.3 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 - 5.6 - 16.3

Gas 43.2 45.0 46.7 52.6 48.9 48.7 49.8 48.5 49.6 4.0 - 1.2

Nuclear 34.8 34.2 31.6 28.4 36.0 41.3 42.6 44.5 46.0 - 1.3 10.1

Hydro 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.6 - 0.7

Renewables 2.2 2.6 3.3 3.8 4.7 5.3 5.9 6.5 7.2 23.9 13.5

* include residential, commercial, public∙etc usage

(21)

20 KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE Coal - HEG Scenario

(Mton)

GACR (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 08-18 18-23 Total Coal Demand 135.1 129.3 139.8 143.2 132.8 131.8 133.5 140.2 140.5 3.3 - 0.4

Transform 82.5 80.3 89.4 91.8 82.3 80.2 81.0 86.8 86.6 3.5 - 1.1

Heat - - - -

Gas Manufacture - - - -

Industry 51.1 47.8 49.3 50.5 49.7 51.0 51.9 52.8 53.4 3.3 1.1

Transport - - - -

Buildings 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 - 8.8 - 12.7

-

Anthracite 10.5 10.8 8.3 9.2 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.7 - 0.5 - 1.0

Bituminous 124.5 118.5 131.5 134.0 124.0 123.0 124.7 131.4 131.8 3.6 - 0.3

Iron making 36.8 33.5 36.3 36.9 36.3 37.3 38.0 38.8 39.4 4.6 1.3

Cement 4.7 4.6 4.2 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 - 3.4 0.4

(22)

Korea Mid-term Energy Demand Outlook 2019 21 Oil - HEG Scenario

(Mbbl)

GACR (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 08-18 18-23 Total Oil Demand 853.1 921.1 937.1 929.3 933.3 951.5 968.1 986.8 1 002.3 2.0 1.5

Transform 14.6 21.8 10.5 11.5 7.6 7.4 6.9 5.3 5.1 - 5.2 - 15.1

Power Generation 12.8 19.3 8.1 8.3 5.4 4.8 4.3 2.6 2.3 - 6.1 - 22.8

Heat 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 - 4.2 - 1.3

Gas Manufacture 1.0 1.2 1.2 2.0 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 - 0.8 - 3.1

Industry 501.0 542.6 567.0 562.2 565.9 581.5 595.4 613.3 627.2 2.9 2.2

Transport 284.0 300.5 303.2 299.8 307.0 309.8 314.4 318.2 321.7 1.5 1.4

Buildings 53.5 56.3 56.4 55.9 52.9 52.8 51.3 50.0 48.3 - 0.8 - 2.9

Gasoline 76.6 78.9 79.6 79.7 82.9 84.0 85.4 86.5 87.5 2.4 1.9

Diesel (including Transformation) 153.3 163.5 165.9 164.1 169.5 171.5 173.8 175.0 175.9 2.0 1.4 Kerosene (including Transformation) 16.2 19.1 19.0 18.9 17.2 17.1 16.6 16.0 15.4 - 3.8 - 4.0 B-C (including Transformation) 38.3 47.5 35.8 33.3 27.6 26.3 24.7 22.9 22.1 - 7.1 - 7.9

Jet Oil 34.4 37.0 38.2 39.9 40.3 41.2 42.9 44.6 46.4 4.8 3.1

LPG (including Transformation) 89.9 109.0 105.1 108.6 110.5 113.4 115.0 116.1 117.2 0.6 1.5

Naphtha 410.8 430.1 458.4 451.2 451.3 467.6 480.5 497.7 510.8 3.8 2.5

Other Non-Energy 33.7 36.1 35.1 33.7 34.1 30.4 29.2 28.0 27.0 2.2 - 4.4

(23)

22 KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE Gas - HEG Scenario

GACR (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 08-18 18-23 Total Gas Demand (Mton) 33.4 34.9 36.4 40.9 38.4 38.7 39.5 38.5 39.4 4.1 - 0.8

Transform 33.1 34.5 35.8 40.2 37.4 37.3 38.1 37.1 38.0 3.9 - 1.2

Heat 1.5 1.6 1.7 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 14.1 1.3

Gas Manufacture 17.0 17.5 18.5 20.0 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.5 2.5 0.5

Industry 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 - 16.1

City Gas (Bm³) 20.8 21.3 22.6 24.3 23.5 23.9 24.2 24.7 25.2 2.6 0.7

Industry* 7.3 7.2 7.8 8.7 8.4 8.3 8.4 8.6 8.7 4.5 - 0.1

Transport 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 5.0 0.6

Buildings 12.2 12.8 13.6 14.3 13.9 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.2 1.5 1.2

* exclude industrial LNG usage

(24)

Korea Mid-term Energy Demand Outlook 2019 23 Electricity - HEG Scenario

(TWh)

GACR (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 08-18 18-23 Net Electricity Demand 528.1 540.4 553.5 570.6 574.5 595.3 612.1 629.2 645.4 3.1 2.5

Own use and Losses 44.4 43.4 45.8 44.5 43.2 43.9 44.5 45.1 45.6 1.8 0.5

Industry 265.6 270.0 276.7 283.7 286.9 297.9 306.2 314.7 322.1 3.8 2.6

Transport 2.2 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.7 2.7 4.5

Buildings 215.8 224.4 228.3 239.5 241.3 250.4 258.0 265.9 273.9 2.4 2.7

Installed Electrical Capacity (GW)* 97.6 104.1 116.4 118.5 124.9 130.9 134.7 139.8 142.0 5.0 3.7

Coal 27.3 31.4 36.8 37.0 36.7 37.1 39.0 41.8 41.8 4.5 2.5

Oil 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.9 2.7 2.7 - 1.3 - 8.9

Gas 32.2 32.6 37.5 37.9 40.0 41.7 41.7 41.7 41.1 7.4 1.7

Nuclear 21.7 22.2 22.5 21.9 23.7 26.1 26.1 27.5 28.2 2.1 5.2

Hydro 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 1.7 0.0

Electricity Generation of Power Plants* 528.1 540.4 553.5 570.6 574.5 595.3 612.1 629.2 645.4 3.2 2.5

Coal 204.7 213.8 238.8 238.4 217.1 212.9 214.9 230.4 229.9 3.2 - 0.7

Oil 31.7 14.0 5.3 5.7 3.8 3.4 3.0 1.9 1.6 - 5.3 - 22.4

Gas 100.8 121.0 126.0 153.5 136.5 132.2 136.2 124.4 128.2 7.3 - 3.5

Nuclear 164.8 162.0 148.4 133.5 169.0 194.1 200.0 209.0 216.0 - 1.2 10.1

Hydro 5.8 6.6 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 1.2 - 0.7

Other Renewables 20.3 23.0 28.0 32.2 40.6 45.7 50.9 56.5 62.7 - 14.2

Fuel Consumption of Power Plants (Mtoe)* 109.8 110.6 110.8 112.9 112.7 116.5 119.4 123.3 125.9 2.2 2.2

Coal 50.6 49.2 52.8 54.2 48.6 47.4 47.8 51.3 51.2 3.1 - 1.1

Oil 2.0 3.0 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 - 6.4 - 23.0

Gas 19.0 20.2 20.4 23.5 20.9 20.3 20.9 19.1 19.6 4.9 - 3.6

Nuclear 34.8 34.2 31.6 28.4 36.0 41.3 42.6 44.5 46.0 - 1.3 10.1

Hydro 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.6 - 0.7

* District Heat is classified by fuel type since 2014

(25)

24 KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE Heat and Other Renewables - HEG Scenario

(Mtoe)

GACR (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 08-18 18-23

Net Heat Demand 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 5.3 2.0

Own use and Losses 0.1 0.0 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.1 - 0.1 - 0.1 - 0.1 - 7.1 27.7

Industry - - - -

Transport - - - -

Buildings 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.1 4.9 2.5

Heat Production by fuel

Coal - - - -

Oil 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 6.0 2.2

Gas 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.1 1.5

Nuclear - - - -

Hydro - - - -

Fuel Consumption of District Heat

Coal - - - -

Oil 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 - 4.1 - 1.5

Gas 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 14.2 1.3

Nuclear - - - -

Hydro - - - -

Other Renewables 14.1 15.0 17.3 19.1 21.3 23.2 25.2 27.3 29.6 11.5 9.2

Hydro 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.6 - 0.7

Transform 2.2 2.6 3.3 3.8 4.7 5.3 5.9 6.5 7.2 23.9 13.5

Industry 8.1 8.1 9.0 9.4 10.1 10.8 11.5 12.2 13.0 9.2 6.6

Transport 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 14.4 2.9

Buildings 2.1 2.4 3.1 3.5 4.2 4.9 5.6 6.3 7.1 18.4 14.7

(26)

Korea Mid-term Energy Demand Outlook 2019 25 Main Economic and Energy Indicators - LEG Scenario

GACR (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 08-18 18-23

Economy and Population

GDP (2010 trillion won) 1 658.0 1 706.9 1 760.8 1 807.7 1 833.3 1 860.2 1 888.2 1 911.1 1 932.4 3.2 1.3 Industrial Production(2010=100) 100.0 102.2 104.7 106.1 106.0 106.5 107.3 107.8 108.2 2.9 0.4 Crude Oil Price (Dubai, USD/bbl) 50.8 41.2 53.2 69.4 63.9 60.4 60.9 61.3 61.8 - 3.0 - 2.3 Working Days 274.0 273.0 269.5 270.0 272.5 275.0 276.0 275.5 274.5 n.a 0.3

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26 KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE Energy Demand - LEG Scenario

GACR (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 08-18 18-23

Total Primary Energy Supply

Coal (Mton) 135.1 129.3 139.8 143.2 132.5 130.8 131.7 137.7 137.3 3.3 - 0.8 Oil (Mbbl) 853.1 921.1 937.1 929.3 926.1 934.7 945.2 958.0 969.6 2.0 0.9

Gas (Bm³) 33.4 34.9 36.4 40.9 38.9 37.7 37.5 35.3 34.9 4.1 - 3.1

Hydro (TWh) 5.8 6.6 7.0 7.3 7.4 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 2.7 - 0.7

Total (Mtoe) 286.8 293.7 302.1 307.3 306.6 311.8 316.1 321.7 325.6 2.5 1.2

Coal 85.3 81.4 86.2 88.2 81.5 80.3 80.6 83.9 83.4 3.0 - 1.1

Oil 109.1 117.6 119.4 118.1 117.4 118.2 119.4 120.9 122.3 1.7 0.7

Gas 43.6 45.5 47.5 53.5 50.8 49.2 49.0 46.0 45.6 4.1 - 3.1

Nuclear 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.6 - 0.7

Hydro 34.8 34.2 31.6 28.4 36.0 41.3 42.6 44.5 46.0 - 1.3 10.1

Coal (Mton) 52.6 49.0 50.4 51.5 50.1 50.6 50.7 50.8 50.6 2.8 - 0.3

Oil (Mbbl) 838.5 899.3 926.6 917.8 918.5 927.3 938.3 952.7 964.5 2.2 1.0

Gas (Bm³) 20.8 21.3 22.6 24.3 23.4 23.7 23.9 24.2 24.5 2.6 0.2

Electricity (TWh) 483.7 497.0 507.7 526.1 534.4 543.5 551.7 558.3 564.5 3.2 1.4

Heat (Mtoe) 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 4.9 0.7

Total (Mtoe) 217.9 225.1 233.9 237.9 237.8 241.5 244.8 248.6 251.8 2.7 1.1

Coal 34.8 32.3 33.4 34.0 32.9 32.9 32.7 32.6 32.2 2.8 - 1.1

Oil 106.9 114.3 117.9 116.5 116.3 117.2 118.5 120.2 121.6 1.8 0.9

Gas 22.1 22.7 24.1 25.9 25.4 26.1 26.4 26.8 27.1 2.7 0.9

Electricity 41.6 42.7 43.7 45.2 46.0 46.7 47.4 48.0 48.5 3.2 1.4

Heat 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 4.9 0.7

Industry 135.3 137.8 144.3 146.3 146.3 148.9 150.9 153.3 155.3 3.2 1.2

Transport 39.9 42.3 42.8 42.6 43.2 43.2 43.8 44.1 44.6 1.8 0.9

Buildings 42.8 45.0 46.8 49.1 48.2 49.5 50.2 51.1 51.8 2.0 1.1

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Korea Mid-term Energy Demand Outlook 2019 27 Energy Demand - LEG Scenario

(yoy, %)

GACR (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 08-18 18-23 Total Primary Energy Supply

Coal (Mton) 1.3 - 4.3 8.1 2.5 - 7.5 - 1.3 0.7 4.5 - 0.3 3.3 - 0.8

Oil (Mbbl) 4.2 8.0 1.7 - 0.8 - 0.3 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.2 2.0 0.9

Gas (Bm³) - 8.7 4.4 4.3 12.5 - 5.1 - 3.0 - 0.5 - 6.0 - 0.9 4.1 - 3.1

Hydro (TWh) - 25.9 14.5 5.5 3.9 2.4 - 5.4 - 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.7 - 0.7

Nuclear (TWh) 5.3 - 1.7 - 8.4 - 10.1 26.6 14.8 3.1 4.5 3.3 - 1.2 10.1