The concept of water security has gained increasing importance due to the great uncertainty caused by the climate crisis and the growing demand for water. The purpose of this thesis is to understand how water security is perceived in Central Asia as a case study of a complex transboundary basin.
Background
The concept of water security stems from security theory, built around military capabilities, power distribution, and resources. Global water security metrics were suggested to achieve sustainable development goals (hereafter SDG) (Gain et al., 2016).
Study area
Central Asian countries connect water security primarily with food and energy security (Guillaume et al., 2015; Jalilov et al., 2018; Stucki & Sojamo, 2012). Several studies have noted that in the post-Soviet period, Central Asian countries restructured national priorities and that water security became an increasingly important issue due to financial problems, social instability, and political uncertainty in Central Asian countries (Abdullaev & Rakhmatullaev, 2016). ; Bekchanov & Lamers, 2016; WB, 2020), but it was still based on technical (engineering) solutions (Abdullaev et al., 2019; Abdullaev & Rakhmatullaev, 2016; Soliev et al., 2015).
Problem statement and research questions
Assessing perceptions of water security and their understanding in the Central Asian context remains a relatively understudied area of research. Policy recommendations were made for improving river basin management to strengthen water security in Kazakhstan.
Data and methodology
Identify possible reasons for the research-practice gap and differences in perceptions of water security in Central Asia. This timeline revealed the transformation of water security perceptions in the post-Soviet period in Central Asia.
Structure of the thesis
The selection of the BA river basin was based on the criteria of the transboundary river basin, and it was widely recognized that this basin is the "model" for other river basins, even in neighboring countries. The thesis was summarized by proposing a preliminary reflection on the role of watershed management in enhancing water security.
Historical evolution of the water security concept
International organizations attempt to conceptualize and promote water security concepts internationally, such as the Global Water Partnership, UNESCO Institute for Water Education, ADB, etc. Scholars and development organizations have primarily begun to create and expand the water security concept.
Conceptualization of water security
The water security concept also varies due to the scale from global scale to basin scale. Definitions of water security in table 2.1 deal with both human and environmental needs in water.
Operationalization of water security
An overview of the most commonly used water security frameworks is discussed in the next sub-section. To improve the status of the GWS index, the authors provided recommendations to improve each water security indicator.
Context specific water security
In the case of China, water availability and water pollution are critical dimensions of water security due to high population density and industrial development (Sun et al., 2016). A local understanding of water security perceptions could help conceptualize water security at the national level (Zeitoun et al., 2016).
Stage 1: Bibliometric analysis of water security in Central Asia
The contextual analysis was conducted regarding how water security dimensions and attributes were discussed in the literature. The analysis provided an overview of the researchers' background for discussing water security issues in Central Asia.
Stage 2: Experts' perceptions on water security
There is still an ongoing discussion in the literature about panel size. MNL regression requires meaningful coding, ie. the category of most significant interest must have the highest/last category (Garson.
Stage 3: Comparison of research-practice discourse in water security
This information can be misleading as several authors could write articles, and the location of the university/institute does not provide information about the origin of the researchers. In contrast, the results of the first round of the Delphi method were applied to the ranking of water security attributes. In comparison, practitioners' opinions on historical policy-level water security trends and country priorities were obtained from the first round of the survey.
Stage 4: Analysis of river basin management in Kazakhstan
Since then, the framework has been widely used as an effective tool for communicating, evaluating and formulating environmental policies (Tscherning et al., 2012). Most studies using the DPSIR framework are case studies, which integrate knowledge and analysis, engage stakeholders and offer alternatives instead of simple solutions (Omann et al., 2009; Tscherning et al., 2012; Vannevel, 2018). . The implementation of the DPSIR framework for decision-making requires a multidisciplinary approach, involving specialists from different fields (Omann et al., 2009; Pinto et al., 2013).
Findings of bibliometric analysis
For example, 24 papers related to water security aspects in Central Asia were published in 2017 and 2019. Indicatively, Figure 4.2 illustrates a comparison diagram for two articles with general coding in eight characteristics and three water security dimensions. It may be the case that among 95 journals there may be journals with a higher impact factor than in Figure 4.4, but I was not interested in journal ranking of individual publications.
Contextual analysis of articles
The Aral Sea is located in the desert area where climate variability has a negative impact (Cai et al., 2003). For example, Graham et al. 2017) highlighted the importance of aquaculture and fish in the Lake Balkhash ecosystem. Large landslides accompanied by rockslides in Tianshan (Central Asia) were described (Havenith et al., 2015).
Delphi findings
Experts ranked the relevance of the water security dimensions in the context of Central Asia according to their experience. Most of the experts valued improving drinking water use in rural and urban areas to strengthen water security in the country. The literature review revealed the following water security priorities in Kazakhstan: improving river basin management plans, improving drinking water use in rural and urban areas, and improving irrigation management for agriculture.
Multinomial logistic regression results
The reference category in this model was the low importance of improving drinking water use in Kyrgyzstan. The reference category in this model was the low importance of improving irrigation management for agriculture in Tajikistan. The reference category in this model was the low importance of improving irrigation management.
Thematic analysis of practitioners’ suggestions
Regarding Kyrgyzstan, experts highlighted glacier monitoring, investment in hydropower projects, improvement of irrigation management, negotiations and cooperation with downstream countries, and training of water experts. In the case of Uzbekistan, experts emphasized the improvement of sewage systems, the improvement of drinking water quality and the preservation of the Aral Sea. According to experts' opinion, improvement of irrigation systems, development of water-saving technologies and improvement of inefficient water infrastructure should be considered in Turkmenistan.
Comparison academic literature’s findings and practitioners’ views
The hierarchy of water security dimensions in Central Asia differs from the literature from practitioners' opinions. Two-thirds of the experts confirmed increasing interest in water security in Central Asia at the political level. There has been a growing discussion on the environmental aspects of water security in Central Asia over the past ten years.
Overview of river basin approach
Then the idea of control of the hydrological regime, supported by the 'hydraulic mission' with massive dam contractions in the 1930s-1960s, dominated and continues to be defeated in developing countries (Allan, 2003; Molle, 2008; P. P. Mollinga, 2008). Basin management has been promoted as an integrated, interdisciplinary and holistic approach that prioritizes environmental protection and sustainability in the area of the catchment concerned ((Barrow, 1998; Molle, 2009). Water resources in the catchment area are managed by a single organization - a river basin organization (hereinafter RBO).
Water governance in Kazakhstan
Furthermore, Kazakhstan is a country downstream of the Talas River and the Shu River, shared with the Kyrgyz Republic, where the bilateral agreement was signed in 2000 on cost sharing of transboundary water infrastructure, yet water allocation is vaguely addressed (Sutherland et al., 2011); Wegerich, 2011). RBIs fall in line with the Committee for Water Resources under the Ministry of Ecology, Geology and Environment. Agriculture is mainly dependent on surface water resources in the south (Aral-Syrdarya, Shu-Talas and Balkhash-Alakol basins).
Pilot study: Balkhash- Alakol river basin
Lake Balkhash depends on the Ili River, especially about 80% of the surface water in the lake comes from the river. In addition, the ecological situation in Lake Balkhash is deteriorating due to changes in the hydrological regime of the lake due to extensive water use in the region, water pollution by agricultural, industrial and sewage pollutants, and extensive water use by upstream country for irrigation. development and construction of hydropower plants (Thevs et al., 2017). There is an ongoing discussion between Kazakhstan and China over the allocation of water quantity and water quality issues in the Ili River.
Interview findings
The river basin organizations existed in the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic, namely in each region (oblast), and were responsible for the monitoring, control and protection of water resources. Consequently, the Amudarya River Basin Organization and the Syrdarya River Basin Organization were established in the 1980s to manage water resources at the basin level. RBIs are responsible for maintaining water balance in the river basin and distributing water resources among water users.
Unpacking academic discourse
Existing water use practices and water disputes within and between countries are the result of poor management of water resources (Wegerich et al., 2015). As stated in the 2020 Sustainable Development Report, more than 80% of the population has access to basic drinking water and sanitation services in Central Asia, excluding Afghanistan (Sachs et al., 2021). Nevertheless, there are large differences in water supply and sanitation between households in urban and rural areas (Bekturganov et al., 2016; . Karatayev et al., 2017; Tussupova et al., 2016).
Appraising practitioners’ consensus
There is a chance that water security dimensions will be addressed differently in academic literature in the Russian language. Unexpected findings on water security priorities for upstream countries in Central Asia contradict the common perception of the importance of water for hydropower generation. As the concept of water security is multidimensional, experts from different fields of competence were invited.
Mapping science and practice
It is therefore beneficial to understand the perceptions of scholars and experts/practitioners on water security issues in the region. The comparison of academic debate and practitioners' perspectives does not support hypothesis 2 about similar water security priorities among scholars and practitioners. Cultural theory can also be applied to examine differences in the prioritization of water security dimensions in Central Asia among scholars and practitioners.
Advancing river basin management
These examples reveal that although these organizations are named under the umbrella of 'catchment organisations', the goals and context of these models vary. Originally, the idea behind river catchment organizations was to be a tool for bottom-up planning and decentralized water management. River basin management was assessed in this study as practitioners prioritized it in the Delphi surveys.
Towards water security
The riverine approach can be considered as an operational tool to ensure water security by achieving good ecological and chemical status of water resources and promoting trust and cooperation between stakeholders in the river basin. This finding partially supports hypothesis 4 on the strengthening of water security through the improvement of institutional mechanisms of river basin management. However, the river basin approach is not the only key variable in internal factors affecting water security, but also.
Synthesis
Water security was ensured in Central Asia by large-scale water infrastructure in the USSR. The thesis demonstrated the dominance of the environmental water security dimension in the academic discourse related to Central Asia. Since external factors (socio-economic-political development in upstream countries, uneven temporal and spatial hydrological distribution) are unmanageable by the downstream countries, improved internal factors (institutional capacity for water management, cross-sectoral cooperation in water policy, water consumption and water allocation) can have an impact on achieve water security.
Suggestions for further research
Building on findings from the case study in Kazakhstan, this thesis outlined reinforcing internal factors to achieve water security and proposed an alternative perspective to the dominant narrative of water insecurity in downstream riparian countries due to dependence on transboundary rivers and aquifers. The riverine approach can be an operational tool to ensure water security by achieving good ecological and chemical status of water resources and promoting trust and cooperation between stakeholders in the river basin. River basin management and planning can strengthen water security by contributing to a sustainable balance between the social, economic and environmental needs for water.
Policy implications
