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KINH TE
NGHIEN c u t i MlTC SAN LONG TRA CUA NGU'CJI DAN DOI V6r CAP NU^6C S A C H TAI THANH PHO CAO LANH
TINH D 6 N G THAP
TS. Nguyen Vdn Ngdi' ThS Nguyin Kim Phu&c- ThS. Phan Binh Hiing' T O M TAT
Nghien cim trinh hdy ve mirc •idn long trd ciia ngir&i ddn ddi v&i cdp mt&c .tach uii Thdnh pho Cao Lanh tinh Bong Thdp. Qua kit qud dieu ira tmng 172 man dugc ldy ngdu nhien doi vdi cdc hg gio dinh chua su di^ng nu&c tir he ihdng cdp nudc ciia Thdnh phd Cao Ldnh. Ket qud cho thdy bdy hien dgc lap cd tdc dgng, dnh hu&ng den hien phu thugc mirc .sdn long ira H^P la: trinb do hgc vdn ciia did lid. qui mo hg, long thu nhgp.
dia chl nhd chit hg. .so nguiri di lam, nguon nu&c su dung vd nhgn ihirc mdi trudng cua chu hi) Tir ket qua nghien ciru. de tdi go'iy miit so chinh .'idch nhu: dieu chtnh gid nuac sgch plidn hiet theo khu vuc ihanh thi vd nong than, ndng cao nhdn thirc cua ngu&i ddn ddi v&i mdi tru&ng hdng cdng tdc luyen truyen -gido dtic; ndng cao trinh do hgc vdn cUa ngirai ddn: kel hap cdc ca quan ban ngdnh gidm A" If hg ngheo; tgo them cong an viec ldm cho ngidn ildn nhdm ndng cao sd ngirai di liim tmng giu dinh;....
Tfr khoa: Miic san ldng tra, willingness to pay (WTP), nudc sach, Ddng Thap.
ABSTRACT
The research presents at people s willingness to pay for the clean water .supply in the city of Cao Lanh Dong Thap province. Through a .survey of 172 random samples are taken for the hou.seholds ussing water from the water supply .system ofthe city's High Con.iul. The results showed thai seven independent variables have an impact, on ihe dependent variable is the willingiie.'is fo pay (WTP): educational level of household head, household size, total income, household address, number of people having a job, water .supply and environmental awoivness of the household. From the research results, the .suhfecf suggests .some policies such as adjusting clean water price differentiated by urban and rural areas, raising people's awareness on the euvironmeni by educational propaganda, increasing educational levels of local people, combining the relevant agencies and .sectors to reduce the poverty rate, and creating more jobs for people to raise the number of workers in the family,
Keywords: Willingness to pay, clean water, Dong Thap province,
1. GIOI THIEU dugc cai thien va ndng cao. Nhu cau ve cac Cung vdi xu hudng phat uien kinh tc, niat hang ticu dimg ttiiet ydu, trong dd c6 ddn sd ngay cang lang. tdc dg do thi hda va nudc sach ngay cang dugc coi irgng. nhat cdngnghifp hda hidn dai hda cang nhanh. la irong tinh hinh cdc ngudn nudc ngay chat lupng cugc sdng cua ngudi dan cang cang cgn kiet vd bj o nhiem.
•Trudng Khoa Kinh ti - Thidng DH Nong ldm TP Ho Chi .Vmh.
•'Gidng vien Khoa TCNH - Trumg DH Md TP Ho Chi Mmh 'Pho Cidm doc - Oi" MTV cap nudt iinh Ddng Thap
TAP CHl KHOA HOC SO 3 (26) 2012 Ngay 20T1-'2009. Thu ludng Chinh
phu da ky cac Quydl djnh sd 1929/QD- TTg va 1930/QD-TTg. phd duyel dinh hudng phat tridn cdp. Ihoal nudc dd thj vd khu cdng nghiep Viei Nam den nam 2025 vd tdm nhin ddn nam 2050. Muc lieu cu thd den ndm 2025. tv' lc bao phii djch vu cap nudc sach tai cac dd ihj dgl 100%.
Viec nghien ciiu muc san long ira cua ngudi dan ddi vdi dich vu cap nudc sgch co y nghta quan irgng giup hoat dgng dich vu cap nudc sach cd nhflng djnh hudng phat tridn phil hgp nham ttida man ldi da nliu cdu ciia dai da sd dan cu. gdp phdn ihuc da>
kinh te xd hdi Thanh pho phai tridn nhanh va bdn vfrng. "Nghien ciru mfrc sdn ldng fra ciia ngudi ddn ddi vdi cap nudc sach tgi Thdnh phd Cao Ldnh tinh Ddng Thap"
qhSm xdc djnh mfrc sdn long tra cua ngudi din trong khu vyc, tfr dd cd ca sd de cac eifj0tih m^hi dua ra mgt mfrc ihu phi
| M h g p nhit ho$c cd nhiing chinh sach hd irg d6i vdi nhQng hp gia dinh ngheo. Ddng thdi dua ra cdc gidi phap nhdra nang cao y thirc su dung nudc sgch cua ngudi dan vd gia tdng mfrc sin long chi trd cho vide su dyng nudc sach. De nghien ciiu nhung ydu td dnh hudng ddn mfrc sdn long tra. nghien cuu dd dp dyng phuong phap djnh gia ngdu nhien (CVM). tren ca sd ket qua khdo sal hg gia dinh \d mfrc sdn ldng tra cho viec su dyng dich vu cap nudc sach. dong thdi didu Ira phdng vdn them cac hg gia dinh ve cac ydu id khac co lidn quan. Dong thdi sis dung phuang phap djnh lugng rad hinh hfii quy luyen linh de xdc djnh cac ydu Ifi anh huong den muc sdn long tra ciia hd gia dinli dc phdn tich ddnh gid.
Kdl qua tim dugc cdc bidn dfic lap cd tac dpng. anh huong ddn bidn phu thugc mirc san Idng tra WTP gdm: bidn trinh dg hgc vdn (TDHV). quy md hd (SN). long ilui nhap (TTN") cd ket qua phu hgp so vdi cac nghien cuu irudc. Ddng Ihdi co cac hien mdi. kci qua hdi quy co y nghta thdng kc la bien dja chi ciia chii hd (KV).
so ngudi di lam (DL). nguon nudc sfr dung (NGN) va nhan ihuc mdi truang ctia chii hp (NT) khdc vdl nghidn cuu trudc.
Kdt cdu ciia nghidn cuu ndy gdm:
Phdn 2 neu tdm ldt c a sd ly thuyet vd md hinh nghien cuu; Phan 3 trinh bay ve ihiet ke ngtiien cfru: Phan 4 trinh bay kcL qua nghidn cuu; Phan 5 trinh bay kdl luan va kidn nghj mgt .so ggi y chinh sach cd ticn quan.
2. C O SO LY T H U V E T 2.1. Cac ly thuyet co lien quan Theo Turner. Pearce vJ Baicman (1995) cho rdng mfrc san tdng tra (WTP) do cudng do ua thich cua nipt ca nhan hay xd hgi doi vdi thu hang hoa dd. Do ludng muc dg thda mdn khi su dung hdng hda ndo dd trdn thi irudng, dirge bgc lg bang muc gid sdn long tra (WTP) ciia hp ddi vdi mdt hang dd,
Mankiw (2003). Mfrc .sdn tdng tra (WTP) con dugc djnh ngliTa nhu la mgi khoan lien tdi da ma ca nhan ddng y chi Era cho I hang hda dd can bdng su ihay ddi Ihoa dung. Khoan lien tdi da dd la mpt bieu hien vd gia trj ciia hang hda do ddi vdi ngudi tidu dting. WTP ddng thdi la dudng cau thj trudng nd tao co sd xdc dinh fgi ich ddi VOI xa hdi khi tidu dung hay ban nidt mat hang nao dd.
Do dd dc dinh gia cac gid trj mdi trudng. tlieo Turner. Pearce va Bateinan (1995) cd nhieu phuong phap khac nhau nhdm xac dinh gia trj ticn td cho cac iai nguyen mdi trudng. Cd 2 phuang phap can ban sau; Phuang phap dd danh gid mgt hang hda thfing qua dudng cdu \ a phirong phap danh gia hdng hda khong thdng qua dudng cdu.
* Cac p h u o n g phdp khong diing du'dng cau
Phuang phdp nay khdng thd cung cap nbiing ihdng lin danh gia va cac do ludng ve phuc lgi tlurc, nhimg nd vdn la cdng cu lim tdi.hfni ich dd thdm dinh chi
phi lgi ich ciia cdc dy an. cac chinh sdch hoac phuimg hudng hdnh ddng. Trong phucmg phdp khong diing dudng cdu cd cdc phuang phap sau: Phuimg phdp thay doi nang sual (Changes in Produclivity):
Dugc sii dung khi cd nhung ihay doi .san lugng do lac dgng ciia moi tnrdng. dd xac djnh gia uj kinh td cua su thay doi. Ndu tac dfing mfii trudng lam dnh huong bdt Igi tdi san tugng. lam gidm gia trj san lugng nic la lam tang chi phi doi voi xa hdi vd ngugc lai. Phuang phap chi phi thay the (Subslitue Cost Method): Phuang phap ndy cd the thuc hidn don gidn bdng each danh gia xem khi sfr dung mgt sd hicn phap Ihay the hoac phuc hdi ihi cdn phai hao nhidu chi phi dd nham giam nhflng lac ddng bai lgi dd. Tfr do xjc dinh ty Id (hay thd giiia chat hrgng mdi uuong voi hang hda thay the.
udc linh gia trj ciia hdng hoa infii Irudng.
Phumig phdp nay cd the dp dung trong mpt mpt sd tinh hudng nhu: lac ddng cua d nhidm khdng khi cd dnh hudng idi co sd hg tang nhu cdu duimg va nha cfra. Phuang phdp chl phi phdng ngira (Preventive Cost Method): Khi con ngudi sdn Idng trd tidn nham chfing tai nhthig anh hudng en the xav- ra khi mdi irudng suy Uioau nhung chi phi nay cd llie dugc su dung lam ca so tinh loan cac phi tdn do anh hudng mdi trudng gdy ra, Cdc chi phi phong ngfra thudng la chi phi nlid han chi phi thyc ndu xay ra. \i cdc chi pliong ngira bao gid cung bi han chd bdi mfrc thu nhap. Phuang phap chi phiy lc (Cost of illness): Trong trudng ln.:^. Uiay dfii vd chai lugng radi truimg ed dnh huang tdi sire khoe cun con ngudi. anh hirdng nay cd thd dan lai nhtrng hau qua tam phdt sinh chi phi. Cac chi phi ma ca nhan bj anh liuimg phai chju nhu chi phi y td. chi phi chain stk- sue khoe. chi phi do nghi vice, ni'in^ suai Iao ddng giam trong nhftng ngay dm.
* Nliom cac phu'O'ng phap diing dudng cau
Cdc p h u a n g ptidp nay cung cdp nhfrng thdng lin danh gia va cdc do tudng
vd phuc Igi. do luong phiic Igi ihdng du gid tri lieu diing. Gdm cd cac phuong phap sam IPhuang phap do ludng muc thda dung (Hedonic Pncing Method); Phuang phap nay cho bidt. gia cua mdi sd mat hdng (vi du. tai san, nha cua bay bar dgng san khdc) cd the bj anh hudng bdi chat lugng mdi Irudng. Phuong phap chi phi du Ijch (Travel Cost Method); Phuong phdp nay dugc su dung thudng xuydn nhai khi tidn hanh danh gia kinh id cdc dia dtem thuimg dirgcdu khach tdi thain cdng vidn. khu bao (dn thidn nhiiJn. bai bien,... cnihdap dyng tdng ,=;d chi phi ma ngudi du lich san sdng Ird chu cd chuyen du lich de dugc tdi cong vien. khu bdo ton hay bai bidn iam co sd cho viC'c danh gia. Phuong phap ndy ddi hoi phai CO didu Ira quy mfi rgng va cd nhung phan lich thdng kd phiic lgp. Phuang phdp danh gia ngau nhidn (Contingent Value Method): Phuang phap nay cting dugc Ihuc hifn bang cdch dieu tra. lap pbidu cau hoi dd xem xet thai do cua ngudi dan phdn ung ra sao khi chat lugng moi trudng thay ddi va iham dd xem hg sdn sang trd bao nhidu dc tranh vide chat lugng moi trudng bj SUV giam Phuang phap nay ciing ddi hoi phai lien hanh cac cudc dicu tra. khao sdt va nhiing phan tich thdng ke phfrc lap.
Dc tdi nay diing phuang phdp ddnh gia ngau nhidn (CVM) lam Ihudc do tryc ticp vd WTP, bd qua nhu cdu iham khao gia ihj tnrdng c6 the dugc dinh gia bang cdch hdi nguiri ddn mgt each tryc tiep.
hg SC san Idng ird bao nhieu doi vdi dich vu cdp nudc sach. khi mfii trutmg chung quanh ngay cang bi fi nhidm. Phuang each nay dugc dp dyng la phdng van cdc chu hi) tai nha hd gia dinh va hdi mtic gid san tdng ira (WTP) ciia hg cho v ice tra chi phi su dung nudc sach sinli hoat gia dinh khi dugc cung cap den.
- iTu diOin cua plnronii phap CVM:
Phucmg phap nay cd thd dp dung lucmg ddi ro rang va Iinh hoat so vdi cdc phuang phdp djnh gid khac trong vifc dd udc lugng
TAP CHI ^HOA HOC SO 3 (26) 2012 cac gid tri gidn tidp. true tidp. gia tri khdng
su dung.
Nhugc didm cua pliuang pliap CVM: Khi su dung phuang phap CVM kdl qua didu tra phu thugc vao cac dieu kidn cua thi trudng gia dinh. each dat van de cua ngudi didu tra. each chgn mdu lam cho cdu trd \a\ cua cac ca nhan khdng dung vdi gia tri thyc. C) ddy ta phai nam rti cac nhugc didm de khic phuc. Then Turner (1995) c'^
mgt sd ird ngai lidm an ddi vdi nhd phan lich thidu than trpng st ldm sai lech: ndi it di WTP; WTP hay WTA; Thien lech mpi phdn- loan phdn; Thien lech diem khdi ddu; Thidn lech theo phucmg lien.
Qua cdc rao hinh nghien cuu Irirdc ddy, trong dd su dyng md hinh nghien ciiu ciia Kaliba. Norman va Chang (2003) chii ydu, CO ket hgp cac md hinh nghien cfru khdc, nhdt Id mfi hinh nghidn cfru cua Vo Thanh Danh (2008) nghien cfru miic .sdn Idng Ira cho vide bdo vf tdi nguven nudc ngdm khdng bj d nhiem d khu vyc dong bdng sdng Cuu long, phii hgp vdi dia ban nghidn cuu. dc bd sung vd ddng thdi cd de xudt thdm cac bidn dgc lgp mdi vdo Irong mfi hinh nghidn cun dd nghj. Miic san long tra WTP dugc xem Id biCn phu thuoc. cac bidn doc lap gdm. Gidi linh chii hd. tufii chu hp. trinh dg hpe van ciia chii hp, nghe nghidp chii hfi, quy md hfi. long tliu nhdp eiia lip. cac bien dfic lap dd xuat thdm: bidn dia chi d ho gta dtnh. sd ngudi di Idm ifong ho. ngufin nudc su dung ciia hp. luvng nudc sii dung ciia hd va nhdn (hue mfii trudng.
2.2. Cac nghien cfru trirdc 2.2.1. Nghien cfru cua Kaliba, Norman va Chang (2003): "Nghidn uuu nuic san long chi tra nham cdi thien vice cung cap nudc cho nhiing viing nfing thon iliiioc vimg Tning bd Tanzania Chau phi vd nhflng ggi y cho chinh .sach". Nghidn ciru mfrc sdn long chi tra nham muc dich dc cai lliien vd klia ndng phai iricn bdn vung cho nhirns ngdnh djch vu cfing eong
vd nudc ndng thdn. Dt tdi da khao sal cong ddng tai cac viing Dodoma vd Singida ihupc khu vuc mien Trung Tanzania, bang each sfr dung cac ham logit da thuc,
Ket qua vide phdn lich dan irong vimg khao .sat ddng tinh vdri vide cdi lien loai hinh dich vy cdp nudc va vifc chfrng thuc muc s^n long chi trd cho vice cai thidn nay. cac bidn cd y nglita ilidng kd vc inai tich cue la quy md hd gia dinh va ;.u hdi Idng irong vide ihyc thi cac hogt dpng irong dy dn, cac bien cd y nghta thdng kc vd mat tieu cyc la dg iudi, ldi san va cac khoan ddng tien mgi.
2.2.2. Nghien cfru ciia Shion Guha (2007): Trong vice ihdm djnh gia cung cdp nudc sach qua phuang phap san sang chi trd Irong nipt quae gia dang phat iridn trudng hgp nghien ciru a Calcutta. An do.
Nghien cim nay dicu tra muc binh qudn vc sy sail sang chi tra cua ngudi dun cho nudc sach d Calcutta, An Do. va dua ra cac giai phap khd thi. Mgt nua trong sfi 202 ngudi dugc khao sat trong nghidn cini nav' la iiliQns cu dan khu d chugt irong khi mfit nira con lai la nhiing cu dun khu chung cu.
Cupc khao sat dugc ticn hanh ihco phuang phap dinh gia ngdu nhien (CVM) dc udc tinli vice san .';ang ehi ini ciia hn danh cho nivdc uong dugc lien hanh trong cac tda nha chung cu lai Dhakuria. Calciiua.
Nhirng nairtri trong nhdm cd thu nhdp thap vi trung binh chu ydu .<;diig irong cac khu chung cu nav.
Kdl qua phan tich hdi quy da Uiycn tinh da cho ihay nam nhan id xac dinh anii hudng: ihu nhap hg gia dinh. tudi lac eua neirdi ira lai. niiin hgc cua ngudi trd ldi.
sd irc em irong gia dinh. v;i sd ihiinh vicn trong hp gia dinh cna ngirdi ira Idi.
2.2.3. Nghien cfru ciia Vo Thanh Danh (200S): Khi nghien cfru mfrc sin long chi tni cho vide ban vd lai nguyen luvdc ngam khfing hi o nhiem. ap dung pliimng phap djnh gia ngdu nhien vdi vide -SU dung mfi hinh Probit vd nid hinli 01 S
dd xac djnh su san ldng chi tra WTP ciia cac hfi gia dinh. Kdl qua Ihu dugc ifr md hinh Prohii cdc bien ngoai sinh gdra: thu nhdp ciia hfi gia dinh. gidi tinh. trinh dp hgc vdn la cac v du i6 quan trgng frong mo hinh.
Cdc hidn ndi sinh gdm: nhu cau nudc ngdm ciia ngudi dan. mdi quan tam ciia hg ddi vdi Unh trgng o nhidm nudc ngdm. sy danh gia eua dap vien trong van dc mdi irudng va muc do quan tam ddi vai nhung anh hucmg cua viec sir dung nudc ngam ddn .siic khdc Id cdc bien cd y nghta thdng kc quydt djnh muc san long chi trd cua cac hg gia dinh.
Kdt qua thu dugc tir md liinh 01..S cdc bien ngoai sinh anh hudng bao gdm:
thu nhap ciia hd gia dinh. luoi lac. trinh dp hgc van va nghe nghifp cua dap vidn.
Cdc bien ndi sinh gdm: Bien gid hd su dung ngudn nudc co y nghta thdng ke quydt djnh mirc -san Idng chi tra cua cdc hg gia dinh.
2.2.4. Nghien cfru ciia C h u r a i Tapvong va Jittapatr Kruavan (2003) xdc dinh gia irj ngau nhidn cai ihicn ctidt Iugng nudc ciia sfing Chao Phraya cua Thai
• So sanh cac nghien cuu truoc:
Lan do bj d nhiem mfii irudng. Nghien cim nay sfr dung phuong phdp djnh gia ngau nhidn (CVM) Irong phan lich chinh sdch dd ddnh gia cu dan d Bangkok cd sdn sang chl tra (WTP) cho viec cai thien chdt lupng nudc cua song Chan Phrava cLia Thdi Lan. l/dc tinh muc san sang tra theo phucmg phap djnh lutmg xay dimg theo md hinh hdi quv' luycn tinh hang each su dung phuang phdp binh phuong nho nhat thdng thudng (OLS), sfi lieu san long tra dugc xem nhu la mdt bidn phu thugc.
dd xdc dinh cac veu id chi phoi sd ticn lc phi mpi ca nhan san sang tra cho viec xu ly ttmg loai chat hrgng nudc.
Kdt qua da lim ra bien giao due (EDU), bidn tdm quan trpng (IMP). Uiu nhap (INC), tinh trgng cam nhan vd chiil lugng nudc hien cd (WQN), vice sinh sdng gan sdng. kenh, rach (AIIT3). cac bidn phi irung cau dan y Id nhfrng bidn cd y nghta. Gidi iinh dudng nbu khdijg ddng mgt vai trd quan trgng trong vice xac dinh muc san Idng ehi Ird trong md hinh nay.
Bicn troii^dc tki ngliicn ciru Cac hicn fiiong nliau Cic hicn khit: iilu
•Siiliailoiii>iion^ viei ihiri: ilii t.k hoJt dwi^lrimu - I ai .-..in v.i ecu. khoan ilonji lien niftl Nyhien cihi cua Kiilib.i.
I Nomian vaCli.ini^COn-^l Njihicii ctru cu;i Shion Guha COO")
N^hieii iihi cua Vo riunli Oanlu2(in8)
- Sir dints: phirang phap dinli gia ngau nhien iCVMl.
- Cac bicn co unli hi/iinsi dC-ll mirc ».^. lonj: ch, \ " ^nni- do h.>e
- Sam dl lioc tua iiijirai [i.i Iwi - Sfl ire tfin trong ^L.I dinh
Ngliioii Cliu cua I'hurji TapMnig vj .tinapjlr Knu^an (2(1031
ira- ITiu nhap ni.i ho giu (Iinh. gu'ii tmh: do tuoi. si<
thdiih \ icn irong gin dinii
Moi quan iam van dc ii Nguun niroc f-U dnng
• N o i Midi «.ng (giin -i".iig, l^ii'iili rath) - lllJltJllL-
- i'liih irang irnm nhiin vO ,.-|i,H lirmig mini hicn lo
2.3. Mo hinh ly thuyet dfi )ipc van (sfi nam di hoc), nghe nghiep Dya vao cac nghidn ciru Hudc ta (bidu dummv ). .sfi ngudi trong hd (ngirin).
thiy cd nhtmg bicn quan sat ihin'mg gap thu nhdp cua hg (trieu dfing ilijng) co anh la: Gidi lmh (bicn dummy), tudi. iriuh huong ddn mtrc san Idng chi tra ciia iw.
TAP CHf KHOA HOC S 6 3 (26) 2012
Vi thd, mo hinh nghien cuu ly ihuydl dugc dua ra nhu sau:
WTP = f(GT, TUOI, TDHV. NN, SN.TTN)
WTP=B,+B,GT+B,TU01+BjTDHV +B^NN+B,SN+B J N + e
B^,: He so tu do (tung do gdc) B^: He sd hoi quy rieng 1=1 den 6 e: Id sai sd ngau nhidn
Bidn phu Ihudc: WTP (ddng/Im"* nudc) 3. THIET KE NGHIEN CUU Dya fren co sd ly thuydt vd cac nghien cuu cd tmdc, nghidn cuu dugc tien hdnh theo uinh ty nhu sau:
Phuang phap thu Ihdp so lieu thii cap:
Tren ca sd nghidn cuu tidn hdnh dicu tra thu thdp cac sd lieu thu cap tu' cdc sd tipu cd sdn d cdc ca quan quan ly nhu: Cong ly Cap nudc. Cue Thdng ke, Sd Khoa hoc va Cdng ngh?, Sd Tai nguyen Mdi trudng, Sd Xdy dyng, Sd Y td, cdc phdng ban cua Thanh pho Cao Lanh hoac qua thu thap Irong cac lap chi, sdch, bao, cac bdi nghien cfru iniac ddy.
Phuang phap thu thap sd lieu sa cap dugc thyc hidn dua frdn ca so bdng cdu hdi dugc lap san dd didu fra phong van true tidp cac hp ^ia dinh chua su dung nguon nudc dugc cap tu nha may cap nudc Tinh.
Ngudi dugc phdng van didu tra Id cac chii hg gia dinh sfing tai khu vyc Thanh phd Cao Lanh, Vide didu tra lya chpn mdu dua trdn cdc so lieu thfr cap danb gia cac khu vuc phudng, xa co ty Id % su dung nudc sgch thdp tfr nha may cdp nudc ciia Tinh, so tugng mau dieu tra ciing duac chgn
theo ty Id tuong frng ciia khu vuc khdng cap nudc, va diyc hi?n bdng phuong phap chgn mdu ngau nhien.
Phuang phap danh gia ngau nhien (CVM): Phuong phap nay dugc dp dung de cd the thdm dd muc sdn ldng trd cho vi?c sfr dung djch vu cap nudc sach ciia cac hd gia dinh, dugc tien hanh hdi iruc iicp cac ca nhan dua trdn bang cau hdi ldp san, de xac dinh gia trj ciia dich vu cap nudc sach, cdc kdt qua nay se phy thugc hoac thay doi theo cac didu kien khdc nhau dugc dua ra frong thj trudng gia djnh.
Dd nghien cfru nhung bien phu thugc va bien ddc lgp ap dung phuang phap djnh gia ngau nhien (CVM), trdn co sd tien hanh didu tra khao sat hd gia dinh ve muc sdn long ira cho vide sir dung dich vu cdp nudc sach va ddng thdi dicu tra phdng van cac ydu Id khdc cd lien quan cua hd gia dinh. Dung phuang phap djnh lugng xay dung mo hinh hoi quy tuydn tinh su dung phuang phdp binh phuong nhd nhdt ihdng Ihudng (OLS), dd phan tich ddnh gia xdc dinh cac yeu td anh huong den muc sdn tdng tra ciia hg gia dinh. Nghidn ciiu nay su sung mo hinh cu the nhu sau:
WTP = f(GT. TUOI, KV, TDHV, NN, SN, DL, TTN, NGN, LN, NT)
WTP=B/B,GTfB,TUOI+BjKV+B JDHV+B,NN+B,SN+B',DL+BJTN+B, NGN^B,gLN+B„'KT+e
B,; He sd ty do (tung dg gdc) B-: He sd hdi quy neng i=l ddn 11 c: Id sai sd ngau nhien
Bidn phy thugc: WTP (ddng/l m' nudc)
TT
1 2
B | £ N D O C L A P 1 Kj hifu
Gicti linh cua Chu hij GT Tuoi cua Chil ho TUOI
D.mvitinh U > v 9 n g
<dau)
=1; nam, =0:n« *•
so nam
Nuhiiin cii-u trirac
KINH T§
3 4
13 7 K 9
to
I I
D i a chi nha cua Chu h(i Trinh dg hoc van cii.i C l i u ho Nghe nghiep cua Chu ho Ti'ong do. N i i n g dan
Cong nhim Cong thixc Khiic So iigifoi trong hp So nguoi (li Iam co Ihn nhap Tong l l m nhap hi'ing ilmng Nguon mroc dang sir dung Lirong nuoc sir dvni: ciia hO Nhan thirc niOi i r u o n g
K V T D H V N N N K N D N K C N
\ N C r N N K SN U I . T T N N G N L N N T
-^1 'tiianh i h i , = 0 : nong ihon so nam d i hou
- l : N n . = O k h a f
= l : C N . = U : k h a c
= l : C C . = l l k h J i
^ ( - K. = 0 : nguitc lai ngiri'i n^viii
rncudong'thi'mg - Inircrc mat,-Oiniroc ngam in^ ngay
- | ' i : 6 y i h u c - O khong uo
-
+
\
*
* -
+
khong
-
-
khong
-
khong kliong khong Giii diu: " khf'jn<^". In nliiing bidi so vdi
nf^hii'ii ciru iructc chtra cti, mdi tte nghi biy sung.
Tat cd 11 bidn Iren co 6 bien dua vao kel qua ciia nghidn ciru trudc (md hinh nghidn cuu ly thuyel). Nam bicn: dia chi nhd ciia chu hg, Sd ngudi di tam cd thu nhgp, Ngudn nudc dang su dung. Lugng nudc su dung cua hd. Nhan thfrc nidi trudng la nhung bidn mdi dua vdo nhtmg cung dya vao cac nghidn cfru trudc va dac didm ciia dia phuang. Cu the nhu bien dja chi nha ciia chii hd thi nghien cuu trudc ciia Churai Tapvong va Jittapatr Kruavan (2003) neu Id "nai sinh song". Dia chi trong nghien euu nay dugc phdn thiinb 2 dgng: thanh thi va ndng thdn. Ngudi thanh thj thudng cd khoan thu nliap vu dieu kidn sinh hogt cao hon ndng thdn nen mfrc sdn Idng chi tra cd the khac nhau. Bidn nhan thuc mdi trudng la I bicn dummy nhan gia trj 1 khi ngudi tra tdi nhan tlifrc dugc Id mdi tmdng dang bj d nhiem va ngugc tai nhan gia ti j td 0.
4. KET QUA NGHIEN CVV Qua kdt qua phdng van dicu tni irong 172 mau dugc lay ngau nhien a Thanh pho Cao Lanh ddi vdi cae hd gia dinh khdng cd sii' dung nudc sach tfr he ihdng cap nudc sach Thanh phd cho ket qud nhu sau:
4.1. Ket qud thong ke mo ta - Mfrc sdn long tra ciia chii ho theo gidl tinh: Danh gia sa bg ve muc sdn long tra cua Chii hd ihco gidi tinh cho I m3 nudc (dong/m* nudc). Kdl qua khao sal ta thay ddi vdi cac chu hp co gidi tinh nam muc san Idng tra cho 1 m-^ nudc tinh theo gia tn trung binh ciia khao sat 5.014 ddng cao lion doi vdi gidi tinh nu gid trj trung binh la 4.859 dong (gid nudc Id gia chua Ihue).
- Mfrc s i n long t r a cua chii ho theo khu vuc: Vd muc san long fra ciia chu hd theo khu virc cbo im3 nudc (ddng/
m^ nudc), kdt qua khao sat ta thiiy ddi vdi cac chii hg d khu vyc thanh thi cd muc sin Idng Ira cho Im' nudc iinh theo giatn binh quan ciia khao sat 5.369 dong, cao han doi
10 TAP CHf KHOA HOC SO 3 (26) 2012 vdl nhung hd nong ihdn gid trj trung binh
ta 4.524 d6ng. Chenh lech muc sdn long tra giiia nong thdn va thanh thi khd tdn, nhung niuc sdn long Ira d khu vuc ndng Ihon van cao han gia cdp nudc hien nay 4.091 d6ng.^m-\
Giani/oc Nong thon n i a n h Ihl DT
- Mfrc san long tra cua chii hn then nghe nghiep: Danh gid sa bp vc miic siin long tra cho Inv' nudc sach giua cac thanh phdn theo nghe nghiep. ta thay mfrc san long Ira cua tat ca cac thanh phdn ddu cao han gia nudc hien nay 4,091 ddng/
m"'. doi vdl hp gia dinh chu hp cd nghd nghiep cdng chirc hoac vicn chuc ihi muc san long Ira cao htm cac nganh nghe khac ti'nh theo binh qudn 5.645 dong/tm' nirdc sach, kd ddn cac chu hp co nghd nghiep kinh doanh. djch vai. khac... gia binh quan 5.238 ddng. cdn chu hg cd nghe nghiep cdng nhdn nine gia binh quan sdn Idng tra Id 5,125 ddng, trong khi chii hg co nghe nghiep la nong dan mfrc san Idng tra thap han gid binh quan 4..364 dong-'lm' nudc sach. Nhu vay qua ket qua phan nao phan anh dugc mdc dd nhan thuc ciia tfrng ITnh vuc nghe nghiep uong vide .su dung nudc sach irony n'mg hg gia dinli. Clicnh Idch muc san Idng tra gifra cdng chfrc va ndng dan tuang doi ldn.
Nong Cong Cong khac dan nhSn rtuJc
- Mfrc sdn long t r a ciia chii ho theo n h a n thfrc vc mdi t r u d n g : NhiTrng hg dan cd su nhan thirc vc mdi trirdng hicn nay dang bi d nhidm thi ngudi la s5n sang tra niiic cao hon 5.238 ddng. cdn nguac lai cac hd dan khdng nhan thuc muc sdn sang tra thap han 4.308 dong.
Chdnh Idch muc san long tra gifra ngudi CO nhan thirc vd khdng cd nhim thfrc co gia tri kha ldn, ddu cao hon muc gia nudc hicn nay 4.091 ddng.
6000 -.
5000 -t 4091
-4824 5&t2- 4000
Gia nuoc Nifoc Nuoc OT ngam mai
- Mfrc sdn Idng tra theo tudi ctia chii hg: Danh gia muc sdn long trd cho 1 nV nirdc sgch cua hp gin dinh xep theo do tudi tfr nho ddn tdn nhir sau: tuoi < 35 mdc san long tra 5.134 ddng, do tuoi tu 35
< tudi < 50 niuc san long tra 5.014 ddn".
I I
t u 50 < tudi < 65 mfrc s i n l d n g trd 4.837 ddng, tir tudi > 65 muc sdn long tra 4.536 d d n g , ta Ihay chu hd tudi c d n tre mfrc san tdng tra cao b a n n h i m g ngudi l d n l u o i . Ta cd ihc giai thich nhfrng chu hp gia dinh cd tudi d d i con ire. do xa hdi ngdy cang phai tridn, g i a i irc tiep can xa h d i va nam bat nhanh cac t h d n g t i n . i l t i n h toan trong vice chi ticu gia d i n h k h i nhfrng khoan chi phtj hgp phuc v u cho sue khoe cua gia d i n h . lal ca cdc n h o m tudi 6OLI cao h a n m u c gid nudc D d n g Thap.
6000 1 5000 { 4000 I 3000 ' 2000 1 1000 -I
Gia TUOI £ 35 < 50 < Tuoi >
niide 35 TuoiS T j o l < 65 OT 50 65
- M v c sdn l o n g t r a theo n h d m t r i n h d o ciia c h i i h g : Ddnh gia m u c san ldng tra cho I m ' n u d c sach cua h d gia d i n h xep theo nhdm trinb d o n h u san. iheo nhdm cd trinh dp t u lieu hoc 4.276 d d n g . i r u n g hgc c a hd; 4.321 ddng, i r u n g hoc p h d thdng: 4.924 d d n g . trdn p h d thong: 5 599 ddng. Ta thay chu hd co t r i n h d o ligc van cdng cao t h i muc sdn l o n g chi tra cdng cao, nhu v a y chung td do nnh h u a n g ve trinh do hoc v a n . nhCmg chii hd nao c d c d i r i n h dp thi su hicu bidt. nhdn thuc va ticp can d u g c nhieu thdng tin trong viec sfr dung nudc sach dd d a m bao si'rc khoe vn khdng anh huang ddn gia d i n h .
- M i i t san l o n g t r a theo n h o m q u y m o ciiii h d : T h e o so lien khao s j l cho ihay n h d m < 3 ngirdi cd mirc san Idng ira cho 1 m 3 nudc sach la 5,056 d d n g , nhom 4 n g u d i muc s i n long tra la 5.000 di)ng, nhdni 5 n g u d i nnrc san ldng i i a 4,9()4
ddng. cdn n h d m > 6 n g u d i m u c sdn l o n g tra 4.654 d o n g . M f r c .sin l o n g tra cho I n r nudc sach ciia n h i i n g tip d d n g n g u d i thdp h a n n h i i n g hd it n g u d i . C d ttic gidi thich do n h i i n g hd c d so n g u d i d d n g la nhung hd dong c o n , t h u d n g la n h u n g h d ngheo v u n g nnng I h d n , k e m h i c u hiet i l ntian thuc v c m d i t n r d n g . d o d d kha nang c h i tra khdng cao cho 1 nr' iiirdc sach.
50.56 5000 49Q4
Gia Quy mo Quy mo Quy mo Quy mo nuoc ho ? 3 h 6 4 ho 5 ho > 6 DT ngirdi ngu'cci ngu'tri ngi/oi
M u c sdn l o n y t r a theo n h o m n g u d i d i l a m ciia h g : M u c san ldng trd cua hp gia d i n h cho djch vu cap nudc sach theo n h d m n g u d i di Iain, n h d m t n g u d i di lam i r o n g hg mdc san long tra ta 4.645 d d n g , n h o m 2 n g u d i di lam muc .san long trd cna n h d m nay la 4.995 d d n g , nhdm 3 n g u d i dl Iam c d muc sdn long tra la 5.096 d d n g . cdn n h d m 4 n g u d i di lam muc san Idng t n i ciia c h u h 6 5,107 d d n g . 0 » a do ta thay n h i j n g lid cd so n g u d i d i lam nhiciu i l ngudi sdng phu Ihudc thi mirc san Idng tra cho I m ^ nudc sach ciia chu ho cao h a n , do cugc sdng gia d i n h dn d i n h v a dong thai nhirng hd cd n g u d i d i lam nhidu thi muc do nhan thirc vc m o i trirdng t6t ban n h d vao vice iicp can thdng t i n hang ngay. cdn ngugc lai gia dinh d o n g con i i ngudi di lain, sd n g u d i sdng phu thuoc nhidu, cudc sdng k b d n g dn d j n h . do do hp phai tinh toan tfrng khoan chi t i c u t r o n g gia d i n h I1CI1 muc .san Idng tra thdp. n l i u n g lal ca cac nhdm deu c6 m u c siin Idng tra cao han gia nudc D d n g Thap.
TAP CHf KHOA HQC SO 3 (26) 2012
Gia 1 Ngudi 2NgLroi 3 Ngu'di 4Ngii6i nu'dc dl lam di lam di lam di lam
OT
- Mfrc s i n long trii theo nhdm tong thu nhap ciia ho: Theo khao sal nhdm cd long thu nhdp cua hd gia dinh < 3 trieu cd muc sdn long Ird cho lin3 nudc sach 4.298 dong. nhdm cd long thu nhdp tir >3 trifu ddn < 6 lri?u muc san ldng tra 4.875 ddng. nhdm cd tdng thu nhap lix >6 trieu den < 9 tridu muc san Idng ird ciia hg gia dinh 5.672 ddng, cdn nhdm c6 tdng thu nhdp cao hon > 9 tridu cd muc sdn long tra cao hon cdc nhom khac 5.786 ddng. gid nudc Dong Thap 4.091 ddng. Nhung hp CO tdng thu nhap cao khd ndng chi tra cho Im' nudc sach cao hon nhfrng hg cd thu nhap ihap. chung to nhfrng ngudi cd Ihu nhap cao ngudi ta quan tdm den vdn dt sue khde ctia gia dinh. khi ngudi ta hidu dugc moi trudng dang bj d nhidm se gay ra nhung bdnh tat khi su dung cdc ngudn nudc bj d nhidm.
dung trong sinh hoat trong 1 ihang ciia hp gia dinh. nhdm su dung nudc <10m' mfrc .sdn long ird 4.695 dong- nhdm su dung nudc tu >\0m^ ddn <20m^ cd muc sdn long trd la 5.141 ddng. nhdm su dyng nudc > 2 0 m ' m u c sin Idng tra 5.542 ddng.
Cac hd ddn d day dung nudc dirdi tidu chuan (nudc khdng dam bao tidu chuan tlico tudi tai ngiivdn nudc so 1998/011 ngay 20/05T998 do Qude fIdi ban hdnh) cdn chidm i> Id rat Idn va muc sdn Idng tra cua nhfrng hg nay thap hon so vdi nhQng lig cd lugng sfr dung nudc cao. Chung td nhung hg sfr dyng nudc nhieu cd mfrc sdng cao ban nhung hg dung nudc it, ly giai CO Ihd d hg gia dinh cd day dii tien nghi trong sinh hoat hdng ngdy. ddi hoi phdi cd ngudn nudc sach cung cap dd sfr dung trong sinh boat.
.Mfrc san long tra theo luroTtg nude sir dung trong I thang ciia h^: Qua ket qua khao sat vO so lidu lugng nudc six
Gifl nuoc Nuoc 10 < Nudc Nuoc OT 5 D s l O m 3 SDs20mJ SD>20m3
4.2. P h a n tich (hdng kc mo ta hidn phu thuoc
Theo kdl qua khao i>al vd niuc san long tra WTP cua chu hg cho Im'^ nudc sach khi cdp den tfrng hd gia dinh. muc sdn long tra frung binh Id 4.956 ddng. cao nhdi 7.500 ddng cd 3 hd chiem 1.7%. thdp nhdt 4.000 ddng cd 35 hd chidm 20.3%, gia 4.500 ddng cd 59,hg chidm 34.3%. muc gia 5.000 ddng cd 23 hd chidm 13.4%.
muc gia 5.500 ddng cd 25 hg chidm 14.5%.
muc gia 6.000 ddng cd 13 hd chiem 7.6° i.
muc gia 6.500 ddng cd 8 hg chidm 4.7%.
muc gia 7.000 ddng cd 6 hd chidm 3.5%.
Nhu vay hem 50% sd ngudi ddn cd mfrc
san long tra d dudi muc gia 5.000 ddng cho Im' nudc sgch. so vdi bang gia cap nudc khu vyc ddng bang sdng Cuu Long ndm 2009 theo chuang irinh nghien cfru Benchmarking (2009), gia nudc trung binh khao sal cd sy chdnh lech nhung khong ldn, gid cap nudc d linh Dong Thap hidn nay gid Im^ Id 4.091 d6ng. Ta cd the nhan xei vd ket qua mfrc sdn ldng trd ddi vdi dich vu cdp nuac cua ngudi ddn khdng cao. Mdc dil ngudi la bidt rdng thuc te ddi vdi 1 hd ndu chua cd sfr dung nudc sgch lu he thdng cap nudc. ndu hg phdi lay nudc tir dudi song ten khdng co may bam. ihi ngudi ta phai thud nhan cdng ganh nudc vdi cu ly la 30m la dd 2.000 ddng cho 1 tan ganh nudc (2 thiing. 1 Ihiing 20 lit) la 40 111, trong khi gia nudc sach ciia cdng ty Cap nudc cho 1 m"' = 1000 lit cung cap ddn tan nhd chi 4.091 ddng. Dodd vdi mfrc gia hidn nay cua edc don vj cdp nudc khdng dii dd trang irai chi phi. khdng cd kha nang tai dau tu ndng cdp. duy tu bdo duang va
de md rgng vide cung cap nudc. Nhd nudc cdn phdi cung cap vdn cho cac dan vj cdp nudc de dau tu va phdi tridn.
4.3. Phan tich hdi qui 4.3.1. Kit qua md hinh hdi qui Phuang trinh hdi quy bidu didn quan he myen tinh gifra mfrc san lone ird vdi 7 ydu td dnh hudng:
WTP=3.566+240,8KV+47.8TDHV- 83.6SN-169.2DL+54,9TTN+400.4NnN + 366.6NT + 564.089 (sai sd udc Iugng)
hay: Muc san Idng tra cda chii hd cho djch vu cdp nudc sach = 3.566+240.8 (khu vyc nha ciia hg gia dinh) + 47.8 (trinh dd hgc vdn cua chii hd) -83.6 (quy md hd) + 169.2 (sd ngudi di idm trong hp) + 54.9 (tdng thu nhap ciia hd) + 400,4 (ngudn nudc su dung cua hp) + 366,6 (nhdn ihuc vd mdi trudng) + 564,089 (sai sd udc lugng),
Kdt qua hoi qui nhu sau:
MG h i n h
1 H a n g » Gicri tinh cua chii hp
Tuci cua chu hg Dia c h i ciia chii ho T r i n h do cua chii hfi Nghe nghiep ndng dan N g h f nghiep cflng nhan Nghe nghiep cont; chijc .SttiiBU'o^ t r o n g h g So n g u d i d i l&m cu t h n nhap T h u n h ? p c i i a h$
t r i f u ( l i n g / t h a n g
k h o n g
B
3565 986 65 990 -2,714 240.839 47.786 -187.121 4 196
I12.6S6 -83.622 169.186
5J.87 b o i q u y chuan hda
S t d . ErrQr{Sai s5 c h u a n ) 3 2 2 2 1 4 91 sys 3.986 113.684 19 847 157.820 152 902 139.653 40 805 73 592
22 179
H$ so h d i q u y cliuan
hoa
Beta
0 037 -DU41 (1.139 0.248 -0.106 0.002 0.054 -0.143 0.156
0.197 t
I I 067 0 7 2 1 -0.681 2 118 2 408 -1.186 0 027 0 807 -2,049 2,299
2.474 C i i t r j Psig. (m irc
^ nghTa)
0.000 0 472 0.497 0 . 0 3 6 * * 0 . 0 1 7 * * 0.238 0 978 0,421 0 . 0 4 2 * * 0.023 " •
O . 0 I 4 - * V I F
1 D58 1.457 1.746 4.316 3.249 1.517 i.EI5 1.991 1.871
2.583 1
I AP CHi KHOA HOC SO 3 (26) 2012
Ntimm nin'rc dang sir dijn<,;
I iionji nuoc su dunu coa.
h o l i n n i ; 1 ihanu m"' Nhan ihifc m f l i inioTiR
4IMI.375 1.157 366.628
103.165 m 7 R 2 121 f ) M
(1.211 0 007 0.194
3 881 0.107 3.U\3
0 . 0 0 0 "
0 9 1 5 0 . 0 0 3 * *
1.200 1.919 1.688
Cbi cliu : *** : luifc y ngliTti a--l% ** • iin'iryngluau---5% • ; mirv y tjglmi fr^ 10'\
Bii'ii \'\'K (nghe nghiep kliiic tigoiti cite ughe rrciil lii Ivi-n iham chieu ctia hit-n nghi- iighicp- Kidm djnh lgi muc dp pliii hgp ciia
mo hinh xei ddn Itet qua va y nghia cua he so R' didu chinh Adjusted R Square la co: R- didu chinh- 0.58. Nhu s'dy t o 58%
thay ddi ciia muc sdn long tra WTP dugc giai thich bai cdc bien dgc lap: dja chi ciia chii hp (KV), trinh do hgc van ctia chu hg (TDHV), quy md hd(SN), sd ngudi di lam trong hp (DL). tdng thu nhap hang ihang cua hg gia ditjh (TTN). ngudn nudc sir dyng cua hg (NGN), nhdn tliiic moi tnrdng ciia chu hg (KT).
Do ia nhung yeu to ca ban anh hudng (58%) ddn muc san Idng ira cua chu hg, tren ca sd do phdn tich danh gia cd nhixng chinh sach, giai phap cho phii hgp de nang muc sin Idng tra vd nhdn thuc ciia ngudi ddn trong van dc su dung nudc sach.
Bien nguon nirdc dang su dung cua ho gia dinh (NGN): c6 P sig. = 0.000 (mirc y nghTa ) bien nay cd y nghia thdng kd. vdl dp tin cay 99%. He so hoi quy khong chuan hoa gia trj luong ddi ldn B , - 400.4, CO ddu duang quan he niiiig chieu vdi muc -san ldng ira WTP ddu pliii hgp vdi ky vgng ciia md hinh nghidn ciiu dc nghi. Khi cdc didu Icidn khdc khdng thay ddi, ndu hg su dyng lir nguon nudc mat chua qua xii ly ihi muc sin ldng tra cua ho gia dinh (WTP) tang ten thdm 400.4 dfing.
Ta CO the giai thich cac hg su dung ngudn nudc mat. cam nhan dugc hidn nay nguon nudc mat dang bj d nhiem hi cac cluit thai smh boat hjiig ngay. nhu niiiy, khu cdng nghidp vd cac loai ihudc sau tir tren dong rugng do xudng. do dd muc sdn Idng tra cua hg dan cao han cac hp su duni; ngu6n nudc ngam.
+ Bien nhan thuc moi tru-dng cua chii ho (NT): cd P sig. = 0,003 bidn nay co y nghia Ihong kd, vdi do tin cay 99%. He so hdi quy khdng chudn hda gia trj ciing tuang ddi ldn B,j,j= 366.6, co dau duang vdi muc san Idng Ira WTP, phu hgp vdi dau ky vpng ciia md hinh nghidn cihi, Ta cd the giai thich ddi vdi cac hp dan cd sy nhan thirc ve mdi tmdng dang bi d nhiem, nhal la hidu rO cac ngudn nirdc. hang ngay dang tidp nhan cac chat \n tbdi lir trong cupc sdng. Do dd mirc san Idng cua hg cd nhdn thuc. khi cac dieu kien khac khdng thay doi, thi cao hon hp khdng nhgn thuc.
WTP tdng thdm 366,6 dong.
+ Bien dia chi nha chii hp (KV):
cd P .sig (muc y nghTa) = 0,036 nghia la bicn nay cd y ngliTa thdng ke vdi dp tin cay 96%. Gid In he sd hdi quy khdng chuan hda B^^ = 240.8, co quan he ciing chidu vdi muc sdn long tra WTP, phu hgp vdi ddu ky vgng ciia md hinh nghidn cuu. Khi cdc didu kien khac khdng Ihay ddi. ndu cliii hd song d khu vyc thanh thi thi mirc sdn long trd ciia chu hd cao han hd song d ndng thdn.
WTP tang them 240.8 dong. Giai thich doi vdi dan a thanh thi tidp can nhidu Ihdng tin hidu ve moi trudng dang bj d nhidm, mat khdc cac ngudn nudc o thanh thj d nhiem ban d ndng ihon nen tdc dgng duang ddn miic .sdn long tra.
Vdi bidn nay ta ciing chii y vi muc do anh hudng ddi vdi bidn phy thugc cua bidn nay cung cao, cd nhung giai phdp thich hgp tac dong ten viing ndng ihon nang muc sdng cua ngudi dan len. do thi hda theo djnh hudng quy hogcli.
+ Bien Trinh do hoc van ciia chti hg (TDHV): cd P sig (muc y nghTa) = 0-017 bidn ndy co y nghTa thdng kd vdi do lin cay 98%. He so hdi quy khdng chuan hda B,,^ = 47.8, cd ddu duang quan he cung chidu vai mdc sdn Idng ird WTP. phii hgp vdi dau ky vgng ciia md hinh ngliicn Cliu. nhung gia trj anh hudng khdng ldn.
Khi cac dieu kidn khdc khdng thay ddi, neu trinh dg cua chii hd nang thdm nigl Idp (nam; thi muc sdn Idng tra ciia chii hg WTP tang them 47.8 dong. Giai thich cac chu hp CO trinh dp hoc van cao. nhan ihirc viec su dung nudc sach dc dam bdo sire khoe cho gia dinh nilnh vd ban than.
+ Bien quy md hp ciia hg gia dinh (SN): cd P sig (muc y nghTa) --•- 0.042 tiic Id bien nd>" cd y nghia ihdng ke vai do tin cay 95%. lie so hdi quy khdng chudn hda B^^= -83.6. cd ddu dm quan he ngugc chidu vai muc sdn tdng tra WTP, phii hgp vcfi dau ky vgng ciia md hinh nghidn ciru, khi hg cdng ddng con thudng la cac hp ngheo, nhgn thirc vc phdp Iuat cdn thap.
do dd kha nang chi Ira cho nudc sach ciia hp thap. IChi cac dieu kidn khac klidng thay doi. neu quy md hg trong hd lang thdm 1 ngirdi liay lang llicm 1 nhan khdu ciia hd gia dinh thi mirc sdn long trd WTP giam di 83.6 ddng.
+ Bidn so ngudi di lam cd thu nhap ciia hg (DL): co P sig (muc y nghTa) ^ 0.023 llic la bidn ndy c6 y nghTa thdng kd vdi do tin cay 97%. He sd hdi quy chua chudn hda cd gia trj 8,^, = 169.2, c6 dau duong quan he ciing cliieu vcri muc san Idng ira WTP, phii hgp vdi ddu ky vpng cua md hinh nghien cuu. Khi cac didu kidn khac khong ihay ddi. neu sd ngudi di lam ciia hd gia dinh tang Idn them mdt ngudi di lam. thi mirc san ldng chi tra cua hg gia dinh WTP tang thdm 169.2 ddng.
Giai thich nhumg ngudi cd di lam nhan thuc vide su dung nudc sgch la can ihiet cho gia dinh, vi hg dugc liep can thdng tin hdng ngay.
Ta thay bien sd ngudi di Iam trong hd cd he sd hdi quy chua chuan hda cd gia trj luang doi Idn. Do dd ehii ; co cac gidi phdp de ldc dpng Icn bidn so ngirdi di ldm.
tao cdng dn vice Iam cho cdc hp gia dinh cd ngudi that nghidp va khdng cd viec lam. TIT do nang dugc muc san long trd ddi vdi dich vu cap nudc sach ciia ngudi ddn, ddng thdi giiip xa ligi tranh dugc cac tcngn ciiaxd hgi.
^ Bien Tdng (hu nhap ciia hg (TTN): CO P sig (muc y nghTa) - 0,014 ngliTa Id bidn nay cd y nghia thong ke vdi do tin cay 98%. He sd hoi quy chua chudn hcia cd gia iri B,|.|^. ^ 54.87, cd quan hd ciing chieu vdi muc san idng trd WHT.
phil hgp vdi ddu ky \gng ciia mo hinh nghien cim va cung phii hgp khi hp cd thu nhap cao hp quan lam den van de sire khde, ndng muc song ciia gia dinh len.
Khi cac dieu kien kliac khdng ihay ddi.
neu tdng thu nhap ciia hd gia dinh ldng Idn them mnt trieu ddng thi WTP lang thdm 54.87 ddng.
^ Bien tuoi: Khi phan tich hoi quy bidn nay khong cd y nghTa, khdng anh Iiudng ddn mirc san Idng trd, nhu vay sy nhan thuc vc vide su dung nudc sach va san sdng chi tra khdng Idthudcvdodptuoi.
Sy lidp can cdc tri thuc. nam bat thong lin khi xa hgi phdt tridn khong Id thupe vao tudi tdc.
+ Bien gidi tinh: Ket qua hdi quy bien nay khdng cd }'• nghTa. ta co ihd ly gidi nhu bidn tucii chu hp. tidp can cac ihiing lin. hieu bidt \ e xd hdi khdng Id thugc vao gidi tinh. Do dd muc sdn long trd ciia chu hp theo gidi tinh liay tudi khong anh hudng, ta khong thd lac ddng dc thay ddi lam chuyen gidi tinh.
+ Bien nghe nghiep: Kdl qua hi^i quy bicn ndy khdng co y nghTa. Co thd giai thich do su hidu hidt \ a tiep can nhidu thdng tin cho rang nganh nudc la 1 nganti cdng ich, phuc vu nhdn dan. co su bao cdp ciia Khd nudc.
TAP CHI KHOA HQC SO 3 (26) 2012 + Bien lugng nudc sir dung ciia
bg; Kel qua bicn khdng cd y nghTa co the giai thich vide su dung nudc nhieu khong phdi muc s6ng cua gia dinh cao. day dii tidn nghi. co thd su dung nudc nhieu do gia- dinh ddng con. cdn su dung cho cac nhu cau khac nhu tang gia san xual.
4.3.2. Kiim dinh
(1) Kidm dinh do phu hop mo hinh (Tests)
Sau khi tim duiic cac bicn doc lap co y nghTa. kidm dinh lai muc dp phu hgp cua md hinh xet ddn ket qua \ a V nghTa cua he sd R- didu chinh Adjusted R Square la cd: K~ didu chinh=- 0.58. Nbu vay cd SS^Ii tha\ ddi cua muc bin Idng tra WTP dugc giai thich bdi cac bicn ddc lap: dia chi ciia chu hp (KV). Trinh do hgc van cua chii hp (TDHV), quy md hd (SN). so ngudi di lam trong hg (DL). tong thu nhap hang thdng ciia hggia dinh (TIT'J). nguon nudc su dung ciia hg (NGN), nhan thuc mi5i trudng ciia chu hg (NT), su dyng ma Iran hd sd tuong qnan Pearson, la xet bang correlation, ta cd cdc he sd tuong quan giua cac bien dge lap CO y nghta thdng kc deu < 0,6 va nhu vay kidm dinh cd y nghTa thdng kd.
Sudung thdm he sd VIF (Collinearil>' Statistics), klii VIF > i 0 cd hien tirgng da cdng tuydn. Ket qud VFF eua cdc bidn ddc lap cd y nghta thdng kd deu < 10. Ket lugn giua cdc bien cd y nghTa thdng ke khong CO hidn tugng da cdng tuyen. Nhit vay bay bidn tim dugc cd \' nghTa thong kd, khdng cd bi hidn tugng da cdng tuydn.
(2) Kiem tra phiroTig sai ciia sai so thay doi (heleroskedasticity)
Ta su dung kidm djnh Spearman dd kiem tra giua cac bicn dgc lap cd >' nghTa thdng kd vdi gia trj tuyet ddi cua so du dugc chuan hda, ABS (standardized residual ABS). Ticu chudn danh gia cac he sd tuomg quan hang spearman co muc y nghia Psig. > 0.05 thi ta cd thd kdl lugn : Phuang sai cua sai sd khong thay doi.
Theo kdt qua sau khi chay SPSS la cd cac bidn dia chi ciia chu hd (KV). trinh do hgc vdn (TDHV). quy md hp (SN). sd ngudi di ldm (DL), t6ng thu nhdp (TI'N), ngudn nudc su dung (NGN) vd nhan thuc mdi Irudng cua chii hp (NT) cd P sig. >
0.05 cd sy dn djnh khdng cd sy thay ddi phuong sai ciia sd du,
5. KET LL'AN VA KIEN N G H | M O T SO GQI Y CHINH SACH
5.1 K S t l u a n
Qua md hinh nghidn ciru va ket qud phan tich cac yeu td anh hudng muc sdn long tra doi vdi dich vu cap nudc sach. la tim dugc cac yeu td anh hudng. tdc ddng den muc sdn Idng tra gdm; yeu id dja phuang khu vuc d cua hg gia dinh. trinh dp hgc van. quy md hg gia dinh. sd ngudi di ldm trong hd gia dinh. tdng thu nhdp ciia gia dinh. ngudn nudc sit dung hang ngay cua hd va nhgn thirc \e mdi trudng cua chu hd. Cdc kdt qua nay ciing phii hgp vdi cac nghien ciru trudc day. nhung ben canh dd cd phai hidn thdm 4 ydu td mdi dugc tim thay co y nghTa thong kd la cac bien: khu vyc d cua hg, sd ngudi di lam trong hd. ngudn nudc su dung vd nhdn thuc moi trudng.
Dong thai qua cdc he so hoi quy chua chuan hoa va chudn hda. phan tich danh gia dugc muc do dnh hutrng, tam quan Irpiig ciia cdc yeu td tdc ddng Idn muc san long trd. Dya vao kdt qua nghidn cuu, de lai dua ra nhirng chinh sach va giai phdp cho phil hgp vdi tinh hinh thyc te vai dia phuang cho tirng ddi tugng chinh quydn.
ngudi dan vd cac dan vi sdn xuat cung cap nude sgch. dd ndng muc san long tra va sy nhan ihuc ciia hd ddi voi djch vy cap nude sach.
S.2. Kien nghi
Qua kdt qud nghien cuu cho thdy gid tri eiia tdi nguyen nudc can phai dugc gjCr gin. bao ve ngudn nude ngpt, trong khai thdc phai cd quy hoach tdng thd. djnh
hudng phat trien. quan ly ngudn nudc va khdng dd bj d nhiem mdi trudng.
Chinh quyen dja phuang ngoai viec nang cao nhan thuc cua ngudi dan ve viec ngudn nudc ngam dang bi d nhiem. khdng an loan cho sue khde. tuydn truydn van dgng ngudi dan sii dyng nudc sach cdn phdi cd chinh sach ho trg gid nudc cho cdc khu vyc vjjng sdu vimg xa. nh&ng vung cdn nhidu khd khan, thu nhap ciia ngudi
ddng thi mirc sdn Idng ira cang thap va ngugc lai. Do dd, giai phap ddi vdi ydu td.nay Id giiip ngudi dan tu giac thyc hidn gia dinh quy md nhd. phii hgp didu kien kinh id ciia mdi gia dinh. cham lo ddi sdng vdl chat va tinh than cua gia dtnh nhdm ndng cao chat lugng cudc sdng. Didu nay cd thd thuc hicn dugc trong tuang Iai gan vi cac hg gia dinh hidn nay ddu cd it con.
ngoai trir khu vuc ndng thdn, viing sdu dan cdn thap.^Chinh quydn dja phuang vimg xa Ihi qui md hg gia dinh cdn Idn cung cd thd hd irg cho ngudi dan ngodi (mgtcap vg chdng cd trdn 2 dira con), cdn gia nudc su dyng cdn cd thd ho trg bdng Iai phdn Idn la gia dinh cd qui md nhd.
each lap dai dudng dng. dong hd nudc.
he thdng nudc... mien phi dd giiip giam phan ndo chi phi phai trd ciia ngudi ddn dd dugc su dung nudc sgch. Nhu da ndu d phdn irdii. gid nudc d Thanh phd Cao Lanh hidn nay van cdn thap han cdc dja phuang khac vi chinh quydn dja phuong van cdn dang Irg cap 1 phdn. Didu nay nen cht dp dung mdt thdi gian dau den khi ngudi dan cd thu nhap cao han thi cd thd ihay ddi mirc gia nudc cung cdp.
Theo kdl qua phan lich hdi quy la Ihdy, ngudi ddn thanh thj cd muc sdn long tra cao han khu vyc ndng thdn, do do dd ndng cao muc sdng va thu nhap ciia ngudi dan cho vide sir dung nudc sach, can thiel cd cac giai phap tac dgng ddn ydu id khu vyc ndng Ihdn. Dd la nhOng chinh sdch vd giai phdp phdt tridn khu vyc ndng thdn nham thu hep dan khodng each giiia viing ndng thdn va ihdnh thj. nang dan muc .sdng ciia ngudi dan d ndng thdn. Cdng dn. vice ldm CO y nghTa quan trgng ddi vdi ngudi ddn va cd tdc dgng ddn klia nang chi tra cua hg. Do dd, ddi vdi cac ngudi dan cd thu nhgp thdp cdn cd chinh sach gia phii hgp (cd thd cdng t>. chinh quydn dia phuang ho irg them). Dong thai, kinh td dia phuang
cho ndn muc sdn Idng chi ud cua hg sd tdng ldn khi con cdi cd the lam them, cd thdm thu nhgp cho gia dinh.
Cdng ty cung cap nudc can tang cudng hd trg cho cdng tdc ddo lao chuydn mdn. kJ thudt. vd qudn Iy. trien khai nhanh dd an vd md rgng cac hinh thuc dgy nghd ndng thdn, dao tao ngudn nhan lyc phuc vy phdt tridn ndng nghiep, ndng thdn dap ung yeu cdu nhidm vu mdi. Cdng ty cap nudc va chinh quydn dia phuang can chii trgng bdi dudng dgi ngfl cdn bg ca sd, dao tgo ndng dan dd lidp can nam bat khoa hgc cong nghd mdi, gan kdt vira dao tao nghe va giai quyel vice lam dd chuydn dich Iao dgng trong ndng nghiep sang ITnh vyc khdc dd cai thidn ddi sdng, ldng thu nhap cho ngudi ddn.
Cdngty cdp nude cdn ddy manhcdn^
tac Ihdng tin - gido due - Iruyen thdng \e nudc sgch eho ngudi dan nhal la cac hg ngheo nhdm lirng budc thay ddi hanh vi sir dung nudc sach ctia ngudi dan. Cdng t>' cap nudc cdn tranh thti sy hd trg cua chinh quydn dia phuang, cac ban ngdnti cd tidn quan nhu: Sd Y td, Sd Tai Nguyen Mdi Trudng, Sd Tlidng tin truyen thdng.
.dd tuyen truydn. giao due,., nhdm giiip cd phat tridn. ngudi dan cd tlidm thu nhap ngudi ngheo hidu ro tdc hai eiia vide sir nhd CO ihem \icc lam se ndng cao mue san dung nudc khdng sach ddn sire khoe cua long chi tra ciia hg. hg, cdn lam ngudi dan hidu thd nao la nudc
Ydu id quy md hg lac dgng Icn muc sach. gido due ndng cao y Ihuc bag ve mdi sdn Idng trd, khi so ngudi trong f ^ i ^ g c ^ ^ g g trong cac ldng Idp nhdn dan.
JTHt/VlENJ
18 TAP CHI KHOA HOC SO 3 (26) 2012 Cong ly Cap nudc phai cd mgt so
bien phap uu ticn lang cudng chong that thoat nude, gidm l>' Id lhal ihoal nudc. vi hien nay ty le that thoat cdn cao; ndng cao chdi Iugng dich vu. tiet kidm chi phi dd giam gia thdnh sdn xuat nudc sach mpt cdch hgp ly dd cung cap cho ngudi dan.
Ben canh dd. cdng t>' can xdy dyng cac chinh sdch gia cd phan hiet giiJa khu vyc thanh thi \ a nong Ihdn. theo hudng nghien cuu dau lu va xdy dyng muc gid hgp Iy cho khu vyc ndng thdn trong giai doan ddu nham khuydn khich ngudi dan ndng ihdn sit dyng nudc sach. Xay dyng cac muc gid luy tidn. phii hgp cho cac hd gia dinh cd ihu nhap thdp. hd ngheo, han chd dugc vide su dyng nudc lang phi. Tang cudng cong tac truydn thong, phdi hgp vai chinh quyen vgn dgng vdi cpng ddng dd mpi ngudi hidu vd chdi Iugng san phdm, dich vy, xdy dyng y thuc tham gia ciia ngudi dan trong su dung, tidt kidm, bao vd ngudn nudc vd bdo vd mdi irudng.
Chinh quydn dia phuang ngoai viec ndng cao nhdn tbirc cua ngudi ddn vd vice ngudn nudc ngdm dang hi 6 nhidm, khdng an lodn cho sue khoe, tuydn iruyen van
dgng ngudi dan .sir dung nudc sgch ma cdn phdi cd chinh sdch ho trg gia nudc cho cdc khu vue vimg sdu viing xa. nhung viing cdn nhidu khd khan, thu nhdp ciia ngudi dan cdn ihdp. Chinh quydn dja phuang cung cd thd hd trg cho ngudi ddn ng,odi gia nudc su dung con co thd ho trg bang each lap dat dudng dng. ddng hd nudc, he thdng nudc,... midn phi de giiip giam phan ndo chi phi phdi tra cua ngudi dan dii duoc sir dung nudc sach. Nhu da neu d phan tren. gia nudc d Tp. Cao Lanh hicn nay van cdn thap han cac dja phuong khac vi ehinh quyen dia phuang vdn cdn dang trg cap 1 phan. Didu nay nen chi dp dung mgt thdi gian dau ddn khi ngudi dan co thu nhap cao han tht cd the thay ddi muc gid nudc cung cap.
Dd tai nghien cuu dugc thuc hien hoan chinh va phdn anh khoa hge dya trdn kdl qua didu ira. Tuy nhien, do ngudn lyc vd phgm vi cd gidi hgn ndn nghien ciru chua ludng hel nhu'ng ydu td tac ddng ddn muc san ldng tra. vi du: bien nhan thuc vd mdi trudng chua su dung mdt thang do cu thd nao ma chi dimg bidn dummy (cd hay khdng cd niian thuc) dd do.
T A I L I S U T H A M K H A O
1. AloyceR.Kaliba. David W.Norman, and Yang-Ming Ciiang, (2003).»Willingness to Pay to Improve Domestic Water Supply in Rural Areas of Central Tanzania:
Implications for Policy.» International Journal of Sustainable Development and World l-cology, 10(2). June 2003, 119-132.
2. Churai Tapvong and Jittapatr Kruavan, (2003). Water quality Improvement: A Contingent valuation Study ofthe Chao Phrava River, (hup;, ' ^ v . i d r c ca'uploads/
uscr-S/10536I355I0ACF23D.pdf).
3. Shion Guha. (2007). Valuation of Clean Water Supply by Willingness to Pay Method in a Developing Kalion: A Case Study in Calcutta, India. Volume 17.
Issue 4 on 10 October 2007 - J.D.BirIa Inititule. Dept. of Management. Jadavpur University. Calcutta. India. (http:.//www.jyi,ofg/researeh.'re.php?id=1295).
4. Vfi Thanh Danh, (2008). Ton thdt kinh td ciia d nhidm nudc ngdm d Ddng bang sdng Vo Thanh Danh. (2010), Danh gia nhan thuc eiia ngudi ddn vd d nhiem nsudn nudcsdng. Tapchi Khoahpc20IO:15b 38-45. Trudng Dai hgc Cdn Tho.
KINHTE 19 5. Thomas Sterner. (2002). Cdng cy chinh sdch eho quan ly tiii nguyen va mdi trudng.
NXB Tdng Hgp TP.Hd Chi Minh, 2008.
6. R.Kerry Turner. David Pearce va Ian Bateman, (1995). Kinh id mdi irudng, TT.
Xghien cuu Kinh td & XH ve mdi trudng loan cau Dai hgc Hast Anslia va Dgi hgc Luan Ddn.
7. N.Gregory Mankiw. (2003), Nguyen 1> Kinh td hgc, Trudng Dai hgc Tdng hgp Harvard.
8. Luat ldi nguyen nudc sd 1998/Qn ngay 20 05.-1998 do Qude hdi ban hdnh.
9. Quydt djnh sd 1929/QD-lTg. ngay 20/11-/2009 ciia Thii tudng Chinh phu vd phd duydt dinh hudng phat trien cap nude dd thj vd khu cdng nghidp Viet Nam den ndm 2025 va tam nhin ddn nam 2050.
