Cac yeu to vi mo tac dong den kieu hoi

Nguyen Phuc Canh. Tap chi Phat Inen Kinh te, 27(4). 81-98

Cac yeu to vi mo tac dong den kieu hoi: Nghien ciru thuc nghiem

tai chau A - Thai Binh Duong

NGUYEN PHUC C A N H

Tmdng Dai hoc Kinh tk TP.HCM - canhnguyen@ueh.edu.vn

Ngdy nhdn 08/10/2015 Ngdy nhdn lai-

15/04/2016 Ngdy duyit ddng:

15/04/2016 Md s6.

1015-E44-V05

Kieu h6i, tSng truong kinh ti, lai suit, ti gia.

Keywords • Remittances, economic growth, interest rate, exchange rate.

Tdm tdt

Muc dfch cita nghien ciiu nham xem xet tac dong cua cac yeu to vTm6 bao g6m' Tang tnrcmg kinh tk d ck qu6c gia nhan v^ quoc gia chuyin ngufln kiSu h6i, su khac biet trong lai sudt va thay doi trong ti gia den dong ki^u hoi tai 29 quoc gia chau A - Thai Binh Dirong giai doan 2000-2013. Sir dung uoc lugng GMM he th5ng (System - GMM) cho dii lieu bang kh6ng can bang, tac gia phat hien dong kieu hoi chay ve cac nuoc trong khu virc co muc dich dau tu manh hon dong co chuyen tiSn cho ngudi than tiSu dCing. Ben canh do, tac dong cua cac yeu to vT mo len dong ki^u h6i thay doi manh nhit trong cuoc khiing hoang t^i chinh toan cku n3m 2008.

Abstract

The roles of personal remittances are increasingly significant in Asia Pacific area, especially in recent decades. This study, for this reason, seeks to examine the impacts of macroeconomic detemiinants including economic growth in both host and home countries, interest rate spread, and change in exchange rate on remittance flows of 29 Asia Pacific countries over the 2000-2013 period By usmg the system GMM estimator for unbalanced panel data, it is found that the remittance flows to Asia Pacific countries have more investing motivations than altruistic motivations. Furthermore, the effects of macroeconomic factors on remittance flows vary sharply due to the 2008 global financial crisis

Nguyin Philc Canh. T^p chi Phat ttien Kinh le, 27(4), B

1. Gioi thieu

Ben canh ddng von dau tu true tidp tir nuac ngoai (FDI) va dong vdn dau tu gian tidp (FPI) thi kidu hoi chinh la dong vdn co gia tri Ion thur nhi the giai va ngay cang chiing td tSm quan trgng ddi voi cac qudc gia trong hon mdt thap ki qua (Adams Jr &

Cuecuecha, 2010,2013; Adams Jr & Page, 2005).

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

• • i Kieu hfii (ty USD) Ki^u h6i tren GDP (%) Hinh 1. Kidu hdi toan thd gidi giai doan 2000-2013 Nguon: Tong hop du lieu cua Ngan hang The gioi (WB).

Mac du cudc khung hoang tai chinh toan cau nam 2008 co anh hudng ddi chut toi dong kidu hdi trong giai doan 2008-2010; tuy nhien, gia tri kidu hdi toan the gidi vin tang tir miic 118 ti USD nam 2000 Idn gip 3 l k (386 ti USD) nam 2013, tuong duong gan 1% GDP toan thd giod (Hinh 1). Trong nhirng nam gSn day, khu vuc chSu A - Thai Binh Duang ludn giii vai trd ngay cang quan trpng voi cac nen kinh te Ion nhu Nhat, Han Qudc, Tmng Qudc, Uc, An Do (Imai, Gaiha, Ali, & Kaicker, 2014; Lee & Oh, 2007;

Morley, 2015). Trong dd, kieu hdi dugc xem la mgt trong nhung ydu td dong gdp quan trgng nhat. Tinh den nam 2013, tdng gia tri kieu hdi nhan dugc cua khu vuc chSu A - Thai Binh Duong dat gin 200 ti USD (han 50% cua toan the gioi), vai gia tri kidu hdi tren GDP cua khu vijc cung dat muc gin 1% (Hinh 2).

Nguyen Phuc Canh T^p chi Phat tnen Kinh le, 27(4). S1 -98

^ ^ ^ Kieu hoi ciia Dong A va Thai Binh Duong (ty USD) r^^^* Ki^u h6i cua Chau Au va Trung A (ty USD)

~ ~ " Kicu hoi tren GDP cua Dong A va Thai Binh Duong

^ — ^ KiSu hoj tren GDP cua Chau Au va Trung A (%)

Hinh 2. Kidu hdi tai khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duong giai doan 2000-2013 Ngudn- Tong hop dir lieu ciia WB.

Vai tam quan trpng ciing nhu xu hudng gia tang ciia kidu hdi trong thai gian qua, nghidn cmi se di sau xem xet cac ydu td tac ddng ddn dong kidu hdi chay vd cac qudc gia khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duong; trong do, tap trung vao cac ydu to vi md cua hai qudc gia nhan kidu hdi va ngudn kieu hdi tai 29 nudc chau A - Thai Binh Duong giai doan 2000-2013.

2. C* Sff li thuyet va phuong phap nghien cuu

2 I Khung li thuyit vd cdc nghien cim truac day Khung li thuyet

Khi nghidn cmi vd kidu hdi, cac nha nghien cuu thuoTig tap trung vao hai huong: (i) Xem xet tac dpng cua kieu hdi den cac yeu td vT md cua qudc gia nhan nhu dau tu, tieu dung tu nhan, ti gia thuc, dgng luc giiip phat trien thi trucmg tai chinh, cai each the che va tang truang kinh td (Goschin, 2014; Guha, 2013; Gupta, Pattillo, & Wagh, 2009;

Gyimah-Brempong & Asiedu, 2015; Hubert Ebeke, 2012; Imai & cdng su, 2014; Jidoud, 2015; Jouini, 2015); va (ii) Xem xet nhiing ydu td tac ddng den dong kieu hdi (BalH &

Rana, 2015; McNabb, 1999).

Ngui-en Phiic Canh Tapchi Phat trianKinhte,27i4). 81-98

Dd md hinh hoa cac \ eu td tac ddng den ddng kieu hdi, Schiopu va Siegfried (2006) aia dinh nguoi di cu trong giai doan diu quyet dmh phan chia thu nhap ciia hp cho tieu diing ca nhan, liet Idem tai nudc dang sinh sdng va mdt phan chuyen ve nuoc cho ngucri than. Trong tnrong hop ca hai qudc gia chuyen va qudc gia nhan kidu hoi deu ma cua thi ngudi di cu co the mua dugc hang hoa lai chinh va phi tai chinh o ca hai nuac va cac tai san nay co ti suat sinh lgi khac nhau. Trong giai doan thu hai, nguai di cu se phai dua ra quyet dinh voi khoan thu nhap tii mirc tiet kiem truoc do. Theo do, ngucri di cu se tdi da hda ham hiru dung ciia minh theo ham sd a giai doan 1:

2c;, cij:'isio M"" - "a = {"(ci) + ^"(ci) + J T ( C / ) ) , (1) Trong dd: i la nudc chu\'en kieu hdi, j la nudc nhan kieu hdi; ^ G (0,1] la ti !e chiet

khau theo thai gian ciia ham hiru dung tieu dfing ca nhan ciia ngudi giii kieu hdi; y E (0,1] la muc dp long vi tha ddi vdi gia dinh ciia ngudi di cir; C^.Cl la tieu diing ciia ngudi di cu Ian lugt d thdi ki thu I va 2 tai nudc chuyen kieu hdi; S la muc tiet Idem cua ngudi di cir d nirdc chuyen kieu hdi; €[ la tidu diing ciia ngudi than d nudc nhan kieu hdi tai thdi diem thu 1. trong dd khoan chi tieu nay co gidi han vd ngan sach:

cl = V -f X'i (2) Vdi I' la thu nhap ciia ngudi than d nudc nhan kieu hdi, X^^ la Iugng kieu hdi nhan

dugc. Trong khi dd, ngudi di cu phai dua ra qu; et dinh de tdi da hoa ham huu dung trong phuong trinh (1) trong dieu kien cd rang bupc:

C i + TX'i -\-S= P (3) Ci=SxR (4) Trong dd: R la ti suat sinh lgi cua khoan tiet kidm tai nudc i, he sd r > 1 dugc xem

la chi phi chujen tien. Gia sii lay logarithm ham hiru dung d phuong trinh (I) va ki hieu i^= P —S\k thu nhap kha dung ciia ngudi di cu sau khi trich cho tiet kiem, phan thu nhap kha dung nay cd the sii dung cho tieu diing cua chinh minh va chuyen ve nudc cho ngudi than, sii dung ham Lagrange dd giai bai toan tdi uu d phuang trinh (1), chiing ta cd:

I = Ln{C^ -h pLn{C^ + yLnU' + X'^') + yl(/^ - Ci - TX'^) + ni^SxR- C^) (5) Dieu kien bac mdt cua €[ va X'^ nhu sau:

. ci > 0 (6)

Nguyin Phiic canh Tsp chi PhSttnenKinh 16.27(4), 81-98 85

(7) Ham logarithm hOu dung dam bao kSt qua tim cue tri cho CJ, cho nen I = -g^, trong khi do kSt qua cho X'J bj anh hucrng bcri muc do vi tha cua nguoi di cu, khi do y > TT • Voi gia dinh kieu hoi co gia tri khac 0, khi do ham s6 cua Q, va X"' vcri su xuit r/J hien cua /^ co d^ng

q = / i ( l - ; 5 ^ ) + ; ^ = ( , ' - 5 ) ( l - ^ ) + ^ (8,

T ( i + r ) 1 ( 1 + r ) '•'•' Khi do, ham h&u dung a phuang trinh (1) khi quan tam toi thanh phan tiet kiem S

Ss.o Max ... Uij = l n { ( / ' - 5)[TC1 + y)-y]+ TI'} + ^LniS) + yLnO'Ty +

rO'-s)) (10) Phan tidt kidm tdi im S* la ket qua theo dieu kidn bac nhat:

i(l±2±:z + y =E / i n

(/'-S)(TC1-1- y)- Y)+rI' IIZY+YC'-S) S ^ '

Trong phuang trinh (11), ben ve trai la ham sd tang cua S, ve phai la ham so giam cua S do d6 hai ben se co it nhat mdt diem can bang la miic tiet kiem tdi uu 5 ' e (0,!'-).

Trong dd S' la ham sd tang cua T, trong khi khoan kidu hdi chuyen ve nuac X'-' la ham giam cua r.

Giai doan thii hai trong qua trinh dua ra quyet dinh cua ngudi di cu la quydt dinh lien quan ddn phan bd khoan tidt kiem S. Vdi gia dinh ngudi di cu tiet kiem tai miic tdi uu S' va ti suit sinh lgi d hai qudc gia la fi' va R^ va ca nhan lira chgn danh muc tai san A'- va A^ de toi da hda ti suat sinh lgi. Theo do:

^ . . . S l ' l ' f i ' + 'l-'fi^) (12) V6i d i k k i c n ngan sich.A'+A'il+fiA')] = S' (13)

Trong do: f(.x) = x",a e (0,1) dai dien cho chi phi dau tu o nuac nhan kieu h6i.

Chi phi nay bao gom ca cac chi phi lien quan den dau tu nhu chi phi giao dich, hoa hong va ca rui ro lien quan den khoan dau tu. Dieu kien bac nhat de toi tru hoa A^vaA^ la:

(A^) fi'- A < 0 , / 1 ' > 0 (14) {A') R' - ^ ( 1 + (1 + a){A'Y) < 0, A' > 0 (15)

86 Nguyin Phuc Canh Tppchi PhatMSn Kinh te.27{4). 81-98

Co thd th5y ^> = 0 khi fi' = A > fiJ va .4' = 0 khi fi' < ^^^^/Jj^^.-,, , khi ^o kdt quacho/l'va/1-' la:

A' = (^^)\iA^ = S--(-i^) (16) Vai cac ham sd tren, kieu hdi cd dang ham:

Remitjc = f(.ll.!l.RlRi.r) (17) Tir md hinh (17) va cac li thuydt cd Uen quan, tac gia nhan thSy ddng kidu hdi dugc

gui vd tii cac quoc gia do bdi hai ddng ca: Lgi ich ca nhan va long vi tha (Schiopu &

Siegfried, 2006).

Mpt so nghien ciru trudc day

Cac nghien cijii va hgc thuydt vd cac yeu td tac ddng ddn kieu hdi bat dau tir nh&ng nam 1980, sau do tiep tuc phat trien va md rdng trong hon mdt thap ki do vai tro va gia tri ngay cimg ldn ciia dong vdn nay (Rapoport & Docquier, 2006). Trong do, hoc thuyet vd thdng tin va quan he gia dinh chinh la hgc thuydt dau tien giai thich cho dong kieu hdi, sau dd cac nghien CUTI tiep theo tap trung nhieu vao ddng co lgi ich ca nhan ciia ddng kidu hdi va xem xet ydu td dau tu trong dong vdn nay. Theo hgc thuyet ve thdng tin va quan he gia dinh thi ddng kieu hdi xuat phat tu viec nhimg ngudi di cu co day dii thong tin cua ngudi than cung nhu mdi quan he chat che ciia hg dan den hanh vi chuyen tien ve nudc. Tuy nhien, Funkhouser (1995) phat hien mac dti cac dieu kien la tuong tu nhau tai hai thanh phd ciia El Salvador va Nicaragua nhung ddng kieu hdi chuyen ve tai hai khu vuc nay lai hoan toan khac nhau, dieu nay li giai dong kieu hdi cdn bi anh hudng bdi ddng ca mang ti'nh chat lgi I'ch cua ca nhan ngudi chuyen tidn.

Nhihig nghien ciiu trudc va sau do dan den ket luan ngoai yeu td ddng co vi tha (mdi quan he gia dinh) thi dong kidu hdi con ham chiia dgng co lgi ich ca nhan nhu de hoan tra ng, bao hidm, thira kd (Andreoni, 1989; Lucas & Stark, 1985). Tuy nhien, ddng ca vj tha ddi vdi ngudi than cua ngudi chuyen tien dugc xem la dgng ca manh nhat ciia dong kieu hdi bdi nhiing ngudi di cu quan tam den thu nhap, chat lugng cudc sdng ciia nhung ngudi than con d Iai (Lucas & Stark, 1985; Schiopu & Siegfried, 2006). Do dd, vdi ddng CO chuydn tidn ve nudc dd phuc vu cho nhu cau ddi sdng cua ngudi than thi miic thu nhap tai nudc nhan kieu hdi la yeu to quan trgng nhat tac ddng den dong kidu hdi, ro rang ndu thu nhap cua nhiing ngudi than tang trudng tdt thi nhiing ngudi di cu se an tam va cat giam bdt cac khoan chuyen tien ve va ngugc lai.

Nguyin Phiic C^nh Tgp chi PhSt tnen Kinh ti, 27(4). 81-9

Vdi nhdm ddng ca thii hai lien quan ddn lgi ich ca nhan ciia ngudi chuyen tien thi ddng CO lien quan den thira ke, chi tra cac khoan ng vay hay trao ddi la nhihig ddng co quan trong. Gan day, dgng co lidn quan den dau tu cGng dugc xem xet va danh gia co tac dgng manh ddn ddng kidu hdi. Theo do, kidu hdi cd the dugc xem la khoan tidn chuyen ve cua ngudi di cu vdi cac thoa thuan vdi ngudi than trong nudc nhu dd chi tra cho cac khoan ng ma trudc day ngudi thSn da vay mugn de hg ra di, hay la cac thoa thuan dd ngudi than trong nudc dSu tu cac khoan tien nay nh&m da dang hda dau tu va giup giam riii ro (Lucas & Stark, 1985; Stark, 1981; Stark, 1980).

Vdi ndn tang li thuyet dd, khi nghien cum cac ydu td tac ddng ddn kidu hdi, cac nha nghien ciiu thudng tap trung vao hai hudng: Xem xet cac yeu td vi md va cac yeu td vT md. Nhung nghidn cuu tap trung vao cac yeu td vi md nhu so lugng ngudi di cu, mdi quan he ciia ngudi di cu va ngudi than trong nudc, hay thu nhap va miic sdng hidn tai ciia nhan than ngudi di cu dang d trong nuac cho nhidu ket qua khac nhau va nhSn thay quan he gia dinh chinh la yeu td quan trgng nhat tac ddng den ddng kidu hdi; tuy nhien, cang ve sau thi yeu td lien quan den lgi ich ca nhan dong vai trd ngay cang quan trpng han (Buch & Kuckulenz, 2004). Hudng nghien cuu thii hai xem xet cac ydu td vT md tac dgng ddn ddng kidu hoi tap trung vao miic do thu nhap ciia nudc giri va nudc nhan kieu hdi, lam phat, chenh lech trong Iai suat hay ca tinh hieu qua ciia thj trudng tai chinh tai nudc nhan kidu hoi (Aydas, Metin-Ozcan, & Neyapti, 2005; McNabb, 1999; Wahba, 1991).

Vdi sir phat trien cua thi trudng tai chinh toan cau va xu hudng dich chuyen ciia cac dong vdn ngay cang nhanh va Idn, dong kieu hdi cQng cd ti'nh chat nhu ddng vdn ngay cang manh han. Vi li do dd, nghien ciiu nay tap trung vao cac yeu td vT md tac ddng den dong kidu hdi. Cac ydu to nhu on dinh chinh tri, su nhat quan trong chi'nh sach cua chinh phii va sir phat tridn cua thi trudng tai chinh thuc su cung cd anh hudng (Wahba, 1991), hay ti gia hdi doai thuc cung cd anh hudng quan trpng (Faini, 1994). That vay, vdi sir phat trien va tang trudng trong tong gia trj kieu hdi nhiing nam gan day, cac yeu td vT md dugc quan tam nhieu han dd la tang trudng kinh te d qudc gia giri va qudc gia nhan kieu hdi, su khac biet trong lai suat va su thay ddi trong ti gia bdi ddng kieu hdi mang ydu to lgi I'ch ca nhan nhidu ban (Aydas & cdng sir, 2005; Balli & Rana, 2015; Schiopu

& Siegfried, 2006). Phan tidp theo trinh bay phuong phap nghidn cuu dugc su dung de danh gia cac ydu td vT md tac ddng den ddng kieu hdi tai 29 qudc gia khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duong bao gdm Afghanistan, Armenia, Australia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Trung Qudc, Fiji, Georgia, Hdng Kong, An Dp, Indonesia, Nhat, Han Quoc,

Nguyen Phiic Canh Tgp chi Phit Inen Kmh le. 27(4), 81-9

Cdng hoa Kyrgyz, Lao, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Nepal, New Zealand, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Thai Lan, Vanuatu va VN trong giai doan 2000-2013.

2.2 Phuangphdp nghien cihi 2.2.1. Md hinh nghien cuu

Dd nghidn ciiu cac yeu td vT md tac dgng den dong kidu hdi chay ve cac qudc gia chau A - Thai Binh Duong, nghien ciiu nay su dung dang ham trong phuong trinh (17) va dua them bidn ti gia hdi doai vao de dai dien cho phan nii ro lidn quan ddn ti gia trong ham sd ciia kieu hoi. Phuong trinh udc lugng cd dang:

Regrowthjt= cto + aiffe^roivt/iyt.i + a2Worldgdppcgt+ OsGdppcgjt-i-

ajnterestdiffjt: + agExchangegj-t + £/t (1^) Trong do: Regrowthyj., Regrowthyt-i: Ti le thay ddi trong gia tri kieu hoi nhan dugc

ciia qudc gia j nam t; Worldgdppcgj: Tang trudng GDP dau ngudi ciia toan the gidi nam t dung de dai dien cho thu nhap cua ngudi di cu; Gdppcgyt: Tang trudng GDP dau ngudi cua nudc j nam t, diing de dai dien cho thu nhap cua nudc nhan kidu hdi;

Interestdiffjt: Chenh lech trong lai suat thuc cua nudc nhan kieu hdi; Exchangegyj:

Thay ddi trong ti gia cua ddng npi te nudc nhSn kidu hdi so sanh vai USD, dd dai dien cho riii ro ti gia. Bien va dinh nghTa cac bidn dugc trinh bay d Bang 1.

Bang 1 Bidn va dinh nghTa

Binh nghia Ngu6o

Regrowth TSng truong kiSu hfli nhan dirac (%/nam)

Tinh toan tir bao cao

World Development Indicators ciia WB Worldgdppcg TSng tmong GDP d§u ngirM ciia thS

gioi (%/n5m)

Tinh todn tir bao cao

World Development Indicators cua WB Gdppcg T3ng tnrdng GDP dau ngiroi ciia tiing

quoc gia (%/nam)

Tinh toan tir bao cao

World Development Indicators ciia WB , . ,.„ Chenh lech lai suat thuc cua qu6c a

Interestdiff - n &

vol My (%)

Tinh toan tu bao cao

World Development Indicators ciia WB Exchangeg Thay dfli trong ti gi^ vdi USD (%/nam) Tinh toan tir bao cao

World Development Indicators ciia WB

Nguyen Phuc Canh, Tap chi Phat tnen Kmh 16,27(4), 81-98

2.2.2. Dil lieu nghien ciiu

Du lidu dugc thu thap tir bao cao World Development Indicators cua WB nam 2015.

Md ta dii lidu dugc trinh bay trong Bang 2.

Bang 2

Md ta thong ke du' lieu Bi^n

Regrowth Worldgdppcg Gdppcg Interestdiff Exchangeg

N 382 406 401 3S8 406

Trung binh 23,318

1,455 4,266 3,214 1,086

Dd I$ch chuan 51,124

1,589 4,331 6,655 7,967

Mho nhdt -92,226 -3,217 -13,880 -11,574 -20,354

Ldn nhit 410,510 2,908 33,030 45,613 67,738 Nguon- Tinh toan ciia tac gia.

Ket qua cho thay ddng kidu hdi chay vao cac qudc gia chau A - Thai Binh Duong tang rat cao trong giai doan 2000-2013 trung binh tren 23 %/nam; tuy nhien, cd su khac bidt rat Idn gida cac qudc gia khi dp Idch chuan ldn. Trong khi do, tdc dp tang trudng GDP dau ngudi cua cac quoc gia chau A - Thai Binh Duang (Gdppcg) dat miic gan 4,3%/nam cao hon 3 lan so vdi miic trung binh ciia toan the gidi (Worldgdppcg) (1,4%);

dieu nay the hien tinh nang dpng va tdc dp phat trien nhanh ciia khu vuc. Ben canh do, Iai suat thuc ciia khu vuc cung cao han trung binh ciia MJ tdi 3,2% (Interestdiff) cho thay su hap dan trong thu hiit vdn dku tu. Cudi ciing, ti gia cua khu vuc cd ti Id tang trung binh 1%/nam (Exchangeg) chung td ddng tien trong khu vuc chii ydu giam gia so vdi USD, didu nay dan den riii ro ndu dong kidu hdi cd tinh chat nhu dong vdn dau tu. He so tuong quan giira cac bidn va trinh bay d Bang 3.

Bang 3

He sd t u o n g quan g i u a cac bidn

He s6 tircmg quan Regrowth Worldgdppcg Gdppcg Interestdiff Exchangeg Regrowth 1,000

Worldgdppcg

Nguyen Phiic Canh- Tfip chl Phat triln Kmh t^, 27(4). £

He s6 tuong quan Regrowth Worldgdppcg Gdppcg Interestdiff Exchangeg 0,080

Gdppcg

Interestdiff

Exchangeg

0 , 1 8 2 « "

0,000 0,102*

0,051 - 0 , 1 2 3 "

0,016

0 , 2 5 9 " * 0,000 - 0 , 1 9 1 * "

0,000 .0,291***

0,000 1,000

0,000 0,998 -0,165***

0,001 1.000

-0,014 0,784

1,000

*, **, *** lan luot CO y nghia thong ke vdi muc 10%, 5%, 1%

Nguon- Tinh toan cua tac gia.

Bang 3 cho thay ddng kidu hdi co tuang quan duong va co y nghia thong ke vdi tang trudng kinh te the gidi, tang trudng kinh te npi dia va miic do chenh Idch trong lai suat.

Ngugc lai, kieu hdi lai cd tuong quan am vdi thay ddi trong ti gia, ket qua nay kha phii hgp vdi li thuydt cd didn ngoai trir tang trudng trong thu nhap cua nudc nhan kieu hdi.

Ben canh do, tat ca cac he so tuong quan ciia cac bien dgc lap deu c6 gia tri rat nhd (chua tdi 0,3); do do bao dam khdng xay ra hidn tugng da cdng tuydn. Ph&n tidp theo trinh bay ket qua udc lugng md hinh (18) cho cac qudc gia chau A - Thai Binh Duong.

3. Ket qua nghien ciru va thao luan

Tac gia Ian lugt sir dung kT thuat udc lugng cho du lieu bang tir md hinh PLS den cac kT thuat udc Iugng hieu iing cd dinh (FEM) va hieu iing ngau nhien (REM). Do han che cOa PLS trong udc lugng dir lieu bang vdi cac hidn tugng bi chech do phuang sai thay ddi, tu tuang quan hay ndi sinh (Kiviet, 1995), do dd udc lugng FEM va REM co the dugc sir dung de xii li cac hieu ung ca nhan (Individual Effects); tuy nhien, vi FEM va REM khdng the xii li hien tugng ngi sinh (Ahn & Schmidt, 1995), do dd kT thuat udc lugng GMM he thdng dugc sir dung dl xii Ii cac vkn dk tren (Arellano & Bond, 1991;

Hansen, 1982; Hansen, Heaton, & Yaron, 1996). Trong nghien cuu nay, tac gia diing PLS de kidm tra hien tugng phuang sai thay ddi, tidp ddn sir dung FEM va REM kidm tra kha nang md hinh bi ndi sinh va sii dung GMM he thdng dd xii li va trinh bay ket qua Ciia GMM.

Nguyin Phuc CSnh T ^ chi Phat tnen Kmh tc. 27(4). 81-98

Bang 4

Cac ydu td vT mo tac ddng ddn kidu hdi Regrowth

(GMM) (GMM) Regrowth(-l)

Worldgdppcg Gdppcg Interestdiff Exchangeg C

0 , 1 0 0 " * 2,263***

1,790***

11,033**"

0,098*«*

2.28I***

2 , 6 4 2 " * 0,838***

4,638**

0,095*' 2,095"

1,690*' 0,777*' -0,426"

8,227*' N

So quoc gia AR(2) test Sargan test Hansen test

352 29 0,528 0,293 1,000

343 29 0,641 0,121 1,000

343 29 0,707 0,345 1,000

*, **, *** lan luot CO y nghTa thong ke vdi mirc 10%, 5%, 1%

Ngudn: Tinh toan ciia tac gia.

Bang 4 trinh bay ket qua udc lugng phuang trinh (18) bang each lan lugt cho them cac bien kiem soat vao mo hinh de kiem tra tinh ben v&ng, kdt qua d md hinh 1 den 3 deu khong thay doi dau va y nghTa ciia cac bidn cho thay ti'nh ben virng manh. Thii nhat, he sd udc lugng duong va cd y nghTa thdng ke cua bidn Worldgdppcg chi ra khi kinh td the gidi tang trudng thi ddng kieu hdi chay vd chau A - Thai Binh Duong se tang ldn, kdt qua nay hoan toan phu hgp vdi li thuydt vi thu nhap ciia nhiing ngudi di cu tang ldn se cd nhidu tien han de chuyen tien ve nudc do dd kidu hdi tang Idn (Aydas & cgng sir, 2005; Borensztein & Reinhart, 1994; McNabb, 1999).

Tuy nhien, he sd udc lugng duang va cd y nghTa thdng ke ciia bidn Gdppcg lai ngugc vdi li thuyet. Theo li thuyet truyen thdng, khi thu nhap tai cac qudc gia nhan kidu hdi tang thi kieu hdi chuydn ve se giam do nhu cau tieu diing ciia ngudi dan d nudc nhan se duac dam bao bdi gia tang trong thu nhap npi dja; do do nhu cau vdi kieu hoi se giam tir dd lam cho dong vdn nay giam (McNabb, 1999; Schiopu & Siegfried, 2006). Tuy

NguySn Phdc Cdnh. Tap chl Phil inen Kmh te, 27(4), 81-98

nhidn, ddng kidu hdi lai co hai ddng luc chinh la long vj tha va lgi ich ca nhan cua ngudi giii tidn, trong do dong co vi tha vdi ngudi than manh hon se lam thu nhap tai nudc nhan kieu hdi tang len va ngudi di cu giam kieu hdi. Con neu ddng ca lgi ich ca nhan nhu de diu tu, san se nii ro hoac cac ddng co khac manh hon ma dac biet la ddng co chuyen tidn vd dd thuc hien muc tieu dau tu va chia se nii ro nhu trong nhihig nam gan day thi khi thu nhap tai nudc nhan tang len se kich thich ddng kieu hdi ve nhieu hon dd tan dung lgi thd dau tu tdt han (Aydas & cdng sir, 2005; Schiopu & Siegfried, 2006). Khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duong hien nay ddng vai trd quan trpng trong ndn kinh td thd gidi vdi lgi the vd lao ddng, tai nguyen va ca hdi dSu tu ldn. Ket qua nay giiip khing dinh ddng CO phuc vu lgi (ch ca nhan manh hon dpng co vi tha trong ddng kieu hdi chay ve cac qudc gia chau A - Thai Binh Duong.

Ket qua udc lugng duong cd y nghTa thdng ke ciia bien Interestdiff va ket qua udc lugng am c6 y nghTa thong ke ciia bien Exchangeg cang khing dinh cho I^p luan nay.

Theo do, khi mirc lai suat thuc tai nudc nhan tang len so vdi My thi ddng kieu hdi ciing tang len, ddng thdi ndu ddng ngi te tai nudc nhan mat gia so vdi USD thi ddng kidu hdi giam xudng. Nhu vay ddng kieu hdi chay ve cac qudc gia chau A - Thai Binh Duong hi anh hudng manh bdi khac biet trong lai suat thuc chinh la ti suat sinh lgi thuc va nii ro ti gia vi thd ddng kidu hdi mang ddng ca dau tu manh hon vi tha.

Tuy nhidn, mdi quan he nay c6 the cd sir khac biet trong hai giai doan trudc va sau khiing hoang tai chinh toan cau 2008, dac biet trong trudng hgp ddng kieu hdi cd ddng CO dau tu manh han so vdi dgng co vi tha. Do do, tac gia chia bd dii lidu thanh hai giai doan: Trudc va sau 2008 dd udc lugng va xem xet su khac biet do. Ket qua udc Iugng dugc trinh bay d Bang 5 va 6.

Bang 5

Cac yeu td vT md tac ddng ddn kieu hoi trudc 2008

4 5 Regrowth

(GMM) (GMM) Regrowth(-l) 0,129*** 0,130***

Regrowth(-2) -0,018*** -0,025***

Worldgdppcg 3,139*** 3,060**

Gdppcg 1,961*** 2,272***

Nguyen Phuc Cinh Tap chi Phallngn Kmh te. 27(4). 81-98

Regrowth 4 5

(GMM) (GMM) Interestdiff 2,241*** 2,110***

Exchangeg 1,076***

c

N So qu6c gia AR(2) test Sargan test Hansen test

2,870 156 27 0,036 0,113 1,000

3,276 156 27 0,036 0,129 1,000

*, **, *** lan luot c6 y nghia thong ke voi miic 10%, 5%, 1%

Ngudn: Tinh toan ciia tdc gia.

Giai doan trudc 2008, khi udc lugng md hinh GMM, tac gia phat hien md hinh bi tu tuang quan den bac 2; do do trong giai doan nay bidn Regrowth(-2) dugc dua vao bdn canhbienRegrowth(-I)dd xCrlihientugngnay. Ket quad md hinh 4 va 5 chira ket qua udc lugng cd tinh ben viing cao vi he sd va y nghTa thdng ke khdng thay ddi trong hai md hinh. Ket qua udc Iugng cho giai doan trudc 2008 khdng khac nhieu so vdi kdt qua udc lugng cho toan bd giai doan, rieng bidn thay ddi trong ti gia Exchangeg cd kdt qua udc lugng duong va cd y nghTa thdng kd. Nhu vay, trong giai doan trudc khung hoang dong kidu hdi cd dac tinh ciia ddng vdn dau tu khi ddng vdn nay tSng Idn khi thu nhap ciia the gidi va ca khu vuc tang, ddng thdi kieu hdi cung tang khi chenh lech lai suat thuc tang len. Tuy nhien, trong giai doan trudc 2008 khi dong ndi te mat gia Iai kich thich ddng kidu hoi tang Idn; didu nay cd thd hidu khi ddng ndi te giam gia so vdi USD se giup cac tai san tai nudc nhan kieu hdi re tuong ddi so vdi thu nhap ciia ngudi di cu do dd hp se chi nhieu han de dau tu mua cac tai san re do hieu ling thu nhap.

Vdi kdt qua do, bai viet tiep tuc udc Iugng md hinh theo phucmg trinh (18) cho giai doan sau 2008 va trinh bay d Bang 6.

Nguyen Phiic Canli Tap chl P

Biing 6

Cac y6u t6 vT mo tac dong den kigu hoi sau 2008

Regrowth 6 7

(GMM) (GMM) Regrowth(-l) -0,029*** -0,072*"

Worldgdppcg -2,019**« -3,473***

Gdppcg 2,436*** 1,119***

Interestdiff -0,946*** -0,882***

Excliangeg -1,606***

c

N So quoc gia AR(2) test Sargan test Hansen test

10,763*"

134 29 0,646 0,267 0,765

18,147***

134 29 0,552 0,118 0,996

*, **, *** lan luot CO y nghia thdng ke voi miic 10%, 5%, 1%

Ngudn: Tinh toan ciia tac gia.

Ket qua udc lugng d md hinh 6 va 7 d Bang 6 khdng thay ddi vd dau va y nghTa thdng kd do do ket qua nay cQng mang tinh ben viing cao. Tuy nhidn, ket qua d Bang 6 cd nhieu thay ddi so vdi Bang 5. Trudc het, trong giai doan sau 2008 khi tang trudng kinh te the gidi cao hon se tac ddng tieu cue va lam giam ddng kidu hdi chay vd khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Duong. Nhu da phan tich d tren, tir kdt qua Bang 4 va 5 cho thay ddng kieu hdi trong khu vuc mang ddng co dau tu manh hon cho ndn trong giai doan khiing hoang kinh te 2008, khi kinh td thd gidi phyc hdi viec dSu tu tai nudc phat sinh thu nhap ciia ngudi di cu se dat hieu qua hon, ddng thdi cac nudc tren the gidi cung cd nhieu chinh sach khuyen khich dau tu' cho nen ngudi di cu se lua chpn dau tu tai nudc phat sinh thu nhap nhieu han tir dd ddng kieu hoi ve cac nudc khac giam di.

He sd udc lugng duong co y nghTa thdng kd ciia bidn Gdppcg cung chi ra trong giai doan khiing hoang neu cac quoc gia chau A - Thai Binh Duong c6 tang trudng tot se thu hiit vdn kidu hdi. Ket hgp vdi ket qua vira phan tich cho thSy trong giai doan khiing

Nguyen Phiic Canh. Tgp chi Phfit tndn Kmh te, 27(4). 81-9

hoang, ddng kieu hdi se phai can nhac giiia dau tu tai nai phat sinh thu nhap hay chuyen ve nudc va didu nay phu thugc nhidu vao su phat tridn kinh td ciia hai quoc gia do.

He sd udc lugng am cd y nghTa thdng ke cua ca hai bidn Interestdiff va Exchangeg lam ro ddng kidu hdi trong giai doan sau 2008 bj anh hudng rkt manh bdi nii ro ti gia, cdn chdnh lech trong lai suat khdng cdn la ydu td h§p din dong kieu hoi nhu trudc khiing hoang nira. Ket qua nay ciing hgp li bdi trong giai doan khiing hoang vdi tinh chat nhu dong vdn dau tu thi ydu td nii ro se cd vai tro quan trgng han trong quydt dinh chuyen tien ciia ngudi di tni.

4.1. Kit ludn

Nhu vay, thdng qua md minh GMM de udc lugng tac ddng ciia cac ydu td vT mo den dong kidu hdi chay vd cac nudc chau A - Thai Binh Duong trong giai doan 2000-2013, tac gia nit ra mdt sd kdt luan sau:

Thir nhdt, dong kieu hdi tai khu vuc mang ddng co dau tu manh hon dpng ca vi tha.

Ket qua nay cho thay cac ca nhan di cu cd thd xem xet vide chuyen tien ve cho ngudi than dd dau tu kiem Idi va da dang hda danh muc dau tu. Kdt qua nay cd y nghTa quan trpng vdi chinh sach vT md cua cac nudc de img xir trudc su thay ddi cua ddng kieu hdi.

Thir hai, trong giai doan trudc khiing hoang ,khi kinh te thd gidi phat tridn se gia tang ddng kieu hdi va ngugc Iai trong giai doan khung hoang, neu tang trudng tdt giup thu nhap tang them se lam cho ngudi di cu tang them phan thu nhap kha dung de chuyen tien ve cho ngudi than; tuy nhien, trong giai doan khiing hoang ngudi di cu se lua chon giii'a tiet kiem tai nudc dang sdng va danh gia cac riii ro co thd gap phai quan trpng hon la chuyen tidn dSu tu ndn kidu hdi se giam.

Thu- ba, khi thu nhap tai cac nudc chau A - Thai Binh Ducmg tang se kich thich dong kieu h6i tang len do dong tien nay mang dac tinh ciia dong von dau tu.

Cudi Cling, chenh Idch lai suat giiip tang kieu hdi trong giai doan trudc khiing hoang nhung Iai tac dgng tidu cue ddn ddng kidu h6\ trong giai doan khung hoang bdi ydu to riii ro. Mdt trong sd do cd anh hudng quan trpng den ddng kieu hdi trong giai doan khiing hoang la riii ro tl gia.

4.2 Gaiy chinh sdch

Tir kdt qua nghien cuu, tac gia cd mgt sd dh xuat chinh sach cho VN nhu sau:

Nguyen Phiic Canh. Tgp chl Phi! Irian Kinh te, 27(4), 81-9

Mdt id, vi dong kieu hdi cd ddng co dau tu manh hon dgng co vi tha do do VN can tao CO sd thdng thoang hon de kieu bao d nudc ngoai cd co hdi dau tu tai VN, mdt mat giiip thu hiit them ngoai te ben canh do con cung cap ngudn vdn giiip nang cao ca sd ha tang va tao vide Iam cho ngudi dan trong nudc. Mdt trong nhimg chinh sach g5n day ciia Chinh phii la cho phep ngudi nudc ngoai mua nha tai VN (cd hidu lire tii I/7/20I5). Tuy nhien, ciing cSn nhin nhan van dd nay d mdt khia canh khac, ndu md cua dd dong vdn chay vao dau tu qua nhanh cd the dan den tinh trang bi mat quyen sd hiiu d nhiing tai san quan trong cho khu vuc san xuat trong nudc. Cho nen, mac dii chinh sach chung vin la md ciia tao co hdi cho ddng kieu hdi dau tu; tuy nhien, can tao dieu kien tot hon cho viec dSu tu lau dai nham tranh tinh trang ddng vdn nong, dau tu nhanh va nit von nhanh lai gay ra thidt hai cho nen kinh te trong tuong lai xa han.

Thir hai, vi ddng kieu hoi dao chieu khi khung hoang kinh te toan cau xay ra; do do Chinh phit can xem xet van dd nay trong dai han de tranh anh hudng xau den nen kinh te vT mo. Trong dd, khi kinh td the gidi phat trien, dong kidu hdi tang nen Chinh phu can tan dung hdt cac didu kidn can thiet dd thu hiit ddng vdn nay ddng thdi tich trii Iugng ngoai te can thiet de tranh sir suy giam cua kidu hdi trong giai doan khung hoang lam anh hudng xau den kinh te vT mo. Ben canh do, can co chinh sach phii hgp de tranh hien tugng ngudi dan giii kieu hdi d dang ngoai te qua nhidu se gSy khd khan cho Chinh phii trong vide tang du tru tao tam dem cho cac cii sdc do ddng vdn nit khdi VN. De lam dugc dieu nay ddi hdi ca Chinh phii va Ngan hang Nha nudc can thuc thi chinh sach on dinh gia tri ddng ndi td.

Thu ba, chenh Idch trong lai suat co tac dgng tich cue trong giai doan trudc khiing hoang nhung lai cd tac dgng tieu cue den kidu hdi trong giai doan khung hoang; do do, Ngan hang Nha nudc ndn xem xet giii dn dinh lai suat trong giai doan khiing hoang hon la gia tang Iai suat nhu trong giai doan 2008-2012 vira qua, didu nay khdng nhiing khdng cd tac ddng tich cue ma cdn lam ddng kieu hoi suy giam them"

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