Cac yeu to anh hu'dng den quyet di i su" dung dat cua ho nong dan:
Bang chufng tiT dieu tra tiep can nguon li/c ho gia dinh nong thon Viet Nam
• LCra Ddc KHAP Tdm tat
Nghiin cffu sff dung dff lieu Dieu tra khdo sdt tie'p cdn ngudn lUc ho gia dinh nong thon Viet Nam (V/iRHS) tff ndm 2008 de'n 2016. Cdc mo hinh hdi quy hiiu ffng cd dinh vd lien quan (hogc khong lien quan) dUffc Udc lUOng. Ke't qud cho thd'y. viic ra quyi't dinh sff dung ddt cua ndng ddn dUffc xdc dinh bdi cdc ye'u to khde nhau dgi dien cho nen tdng sinh ke, kinh nghiem, ky vgng ve cdc cii sdc thdi nit vd dieu kien kinh ti. vdt chdt cda cdc dia phUffng.
TH khda: quyi't dinh sff dung dd't, ho nong ddn, Viet Nam Sunimary
The study used table data of VARUS from 2008 to 2016. Fixed and related (or unrelated}
regression models were eslimated. The result shows that farmers' land use decision-making is influenced by various factors representing the livelihoods base, experience, expectations of weather shocks, economic and material conditions of the locality.
Keywords: land use decision-making, farmer household. Vietnam Giai THIEU
Hie'u rd dtfdc cd sd du'a ra quye't dinh stf dung dd't ciia hd ndng dan la ndi dung thu hut sif quan tam cua cdc nha hoach dinh chinh sdeh, cdc td chtfe phi chinh phu va cae cdng ddng nghien ctfu, do tam quan trpng ciia an ninh lifdng thtfc toan cau Id vd'n de ldn nha't trong qud tnnh phat trien (De Janvry va Sadoulet, 2010; FAO. 2012).
Tuy nhien, d cdc ntfdc dang phat trien, san xua't ndng nghidp chu yd'u diin ra tai cdc ho ndng ddn nhd, vdi quy md didn tich da't san xua't khdng ldn va dan"
phai dd'i mat vdi nhieu han che' ve eac di^u kidn vat ehd't eung nhtf dieu kien kinh td' - xa hdi vu'dt ra ngoai pham vi eua hd ndng ddn. Chinh vi vdy, vide thiTc hidn nghidn ctfu nham xac dinh cac yd'u td anh hudng dd'n quyet dinh stf dung dd't cua hd ndng dan la can thid't.
P H L / a N G PHAP N G H I E N CLfU
Thie't ldp khung phdn tich
Mac dil cd stf khac biet dang ke gitfa cdc nghidn etfu ve viec quyd't dinh stf dung da't cua hd ndng ddn.
tuy nhien, cd mdt so' nguydn tae ed ban ma cde nghidn eu\i ve chu de nay ttfdng dd'i thd'ng nha't la: (a) Ndng dan phai dtfa ra quyd't dinh ve san xud't lien quan dd'n vd'n kha dung; (b) Phai can bdng ede cd hdi giai quye't cae can trd; (c) Phai dd'i phd vdi sif khdng chae chdn va rui ro; va (d) Chid'n lifdc san xuat va sinh ke phu hdp vdi dieu kidn kinh te', xa hoi d dia phtfdng minh sinh sdng V l vd'n de nay, khung sinh ke'ben vtfng i,', ,^dtdi^mkhdi dau td't de' md hinh hda vide ra quye't dinh stf dung da't Sinh ke* dttdc dinh nghia la kha nang, tai san va hoat ddng eua radt phttdng tien sinh sdng (Ashley va Carney. 1999). Khi dp dung cho khu vifc ndng thdn cua cac nu'dc dang phat tridn, mdt hd gia dinh nong thdn trong khung ndy dttdc coi !a don vi ra quvet dinh cd ban (Elhs, 200'M Khun- smh ke bao gdm 3 thanh pha ^ .,,- L;^.r„-- . - .
"= • *^ ' •^ti noi chat 'li'''i'-Mnhkd' ehe: ndn tang sinh ke'
' Vien rSghien ctfu Quan ly Kinh te Trung Udng
Ngdv nlign bdi 0610/2019; Ngay phan bien: 18/10/2019: Ngcn du^itddng: 24/10/2019 158
vd kd't qua sinh kd' trong dieu kidn kinh te-xahdieu the'.
Nghidn ctfu nay cung dtfa tren Khung phdn tieh ve sinh ke ben viJng, nhtfng cd siia do'i cho phu hdp vdi di^u kien cua nong dan Viet Nam.
Cdc nen tang sinh kd' (tai san) dtfqc phdn thanh cac loai vd'n khac nhau: vd'n ttf nhien (vi du: dd't dai), vd'n vdt ehd't (vi du: xe may, may phun thudc trtf sau, may keo), vd'n nhan Itfc (vi du, thanh vien trong dp tud'i lao ddng, giao due, phu thudc), vdn tai chinh (vi du, khu vtfc nha d, tiet kiem, tin dung, chuyan nhtfdng) va vd'n xd hdi (vi du: vi tri xa hdi, quan hd xa hpi).
Nhffng loai vd'n hodc tai san nay la nen tang dd' mot hd gia dinh trong Itfa chon chid'n Itfde sinh ke' cua minh nhtf mdt stf kd't hdp cua cac hoat dpng. Cu the la, san xud't ndng nghiep (vi du: tr6ng trot), vide lam phi ndng nghidp (vi du, budn ban quy mo nhd), lam cdng an Itfdng, va/hoac khai thdc tai nguydn chung (ddnh bat thuy san, hdi Itfdra). Mdi stf ke't hdp cua cac boat dong smh kd' nay dtfdc Itfa ehon bdi cdc hd gia dinh dan de'n mdt tap hdp cac kd't qua sinh ke', chang ban nhtt tdng thu nhdp, phdc ldi hoac kha nang dd'i phd vdi cdc cu s6c cao hdn. Khung sinh kd' ben vtfng nay neu bat cac yeu to khac nhau hinh thanh ndn sinh kd* eua ngtfdi ddn trong cdng dong, cung nhtf cac yd'u to anh htfdng de'n hp vd md'i lidn kd't giffa cde yd'u to' khde nhau nay. Do dd, khung sinh kd' khdng nhffng eung ca'p day du stf hid'u bie't todn dien ve cac ye'u td'trong qua tnnh ra quye't dinh stf dung dd't cua ndng ddn, ma cdn xdc dinh vide Itfa chpn stf dung dd't la mdt chtfc nang eua cdc ye'u to khde nhau the' hien stf ung hd va han ehd'eua ndng ddn (T T. Nguyen va cdng stf, 2017) (JTinh).
Xdc dinh bie'n phu thu^c Ltfa chpn stf dung da't cua hd ndng dan dtfdc the hien qua ty Ie (tinh bang %) da't n6ng nghidp dtfdc phdn hS eho cho cdc mue dich stf dung da't khac nhau. Tong didn tich dat ndng nghiep eua mdt hd gia dinh dtfdc chia thanh 4 loai: cay hang nam, cay lau ndm, ldm nghidp va nudi trdng thuy san.
Do do, cd 4 mue dich stf dung dd't khac nhau trong phan tieh nay, bao gom da't su'dung cho cac muc tidu: (a) liia; (b) cay tr6ng hang nam khac; (e) cay Idu nam; (d) 13m nghidp; va (e) dat nudi trdng thuy san.
Xdc dinh biin kiim sodt Biin kiem sodl cdp hg gia dinh Vide xdc dinh cdc bie'n ddc ldp cho cdc md hinh hdi quy dtta tren khung smh
HiMH: KHGNG SINH KE COA MOnC DAM TROMG VIEC RA QGYET DIMH SCf DCIMG DAT T ^ P TROMG v A o CHAT Ld0MG DAT
> <^'t > <
> V — —^tgu< S c o n n e s ( 1 9 9 8 ) , T T M g u y e n v
kd' (Hinh) dd' the' hien cde loai ngudn vd'n khde nhau ma mdt hd gia dinh sd hffu, cac di^u kidn kinh te - xa hdi d cap xd.
Vd'n ttt nhien dxliic dai dien bdi didn tieh dd't ndng nghiep (tinh bdng ha). Ty Id da't ed So' dd trong td'ng didn tich da't ndng nghidp (tinh theo %) va khoang each ttf nha ddn de'n cac manh da't (linh bang km).
Vd'n con ngttdi dttdc bilu thi bdng ty Id ngttdi phu thudc (tinh theo %) cd tinh de'n quy md hd gia dinh (sd ngtfdi sd'ng trong gia dinh) va ngttdi phu thudc (ngttdi gia, tre em hodc ngttdi khdng kid'm dtfde thu nhap), ty Id eua thanh vien hd gia dinh d dp tuoi lao ddng (ttf 16 de'n 65 tuoi, tinh theo %), trinh dp hpc va'n dtfdc do bang ehihig chi cao nha't (bie'n gid), tuoi trung binh cua thanh vidn trong dp tuoi Iao ddng (tinh theo nam) va ty Id ntf lam chu hd (tinh theo %).
vdn vat chd't dtfde the' hien bang sd'Itfdng may keo, xe mdy (phtfdng tien vdn ehuyd'n chinh d ndng thdn Viet Nam) va sd' Itfdng may phun thud'c trtf sau.
vdn tai chinh dtfdc dai didn bdi dien tieh nha d (m-), tdng tien tid't kidm (trieu dong), tdng tien vay (tneu d6ng), ede khoan chuyin nhtfdng/hd trd ttf cd nhdn cQng nhtf cdc khodn chuyen nhtfdng/hd trp ttf chinhphu va cdc t^ chtfc xa hdi (ca hai deu tinh bang trieu ddng).
Vd'n xa hoi dtfde the hidn bang cdc md'i quan he tin cay va kd't nd'i trong cde to' chtfc. Stt kd't nd'i trong eac td' chtfc dtfdc uy quyen bdi vdi ttf cdch la thanh vidn cua hd gia dinh trong mdt to chtfc chinh tri - xa hdi (bie'n gia), eac nguon trd giup trong trtfdng hdp can tien (bie'n gia).
Bie'n kiem .sodl cdp xd
d cap xa, cdc bie'n sau day dtfde stf dung dd the hien kha nang tid'p can eac dieu kidn vdt chd't va dieu kien kinh te'xa hdi:
- Phan chia da't dai: ty Id hd gia dinh khdng cd dat (%), ty Ie hd gia dinh cd da't dtfdi 0,5ha (%), ty Id hd gia dinh cd da't ttf 0,5ha de'n Iha (%), ty Id hp gia dinh ed da't ttf Iha dd'n 2ha (%), ty Id hd gia dinh cd dat ttf 2ha de'n 5ha (%), ty le hd gia dinh cd da't tren 5ha (%);
- Chd't Itfdng da't: ty le da't canh tac dtfdc cung cap dieh vu thuy ldi trong xa (%);
^^Eeonomy and Foreca.si Review 159
- Viec lam phi ndng nghiep: sded sd san xud't, kinh doanh stf dung ttf 10 lao ddng trd ldn (bao gdm ca'trang trai, ndng, lam trtfdng, khu nudi trdng thuy san) d xa, sd'cd sd san xua't, kinh doanh stf dung ttf 10 lao ddng trd Idn d cac xd Ian cdn ma ngttdi dan trong xa cd thi di lam va trd ve trong ngdy;
- Thi trtfdng hda; ehd hang ngay cd dia diem cd'dinh va chd phidn (bid'n gia);
- Ha tang xa hoi: trtfdng tieu hpe, trung hpe cd sd, trung tam y te', tram y td', benh vidn, btfu dien (ta't cd Id bie'n gia);
- Dieu kidn sd'ng: Ty Id ed den dien chie'u sang (%) vd ty Id dtfdc cung cd'p ntfdc saeh (%);
- Khoang each: Khoang each (km) ttf trung tam xa de'n tram xe buyt gan nha't, de'n dtfdng nhtta gan nha't.
Stf bie'n doi khi hau dtfde the hidn bdng so' Itfdng eac cu sd'c thdi tie't, ma hd gia dinh dd trai qua trong ba ndm qua.
Cdc bie'n doe lap dtfdng va hen tuc (kich thtfdc dat, khoang cdeh, dien tich nha, tid't kidm, cho vay, chuye'n nhttdng cac loai) dttdc chuyen thanh dang logarit dd giam gid tri tiem ndng vd dd'i xtfng vdi phan dtt. Bie'n thdi gian trong giai doan 2008-2016 Id mdt bie'n gia dtfa vao md hinh (bie'n gia).
Ddc diem ky thuat cua mo hinh kinh ti Iffffng Md hinh hdi quy hieu tfng cd dinh dttdc diing de' xac dinh eac yd'u to' anh httdng tdi quye't dinh Itta ehpn stf dung da't cua hg ndng dan. Do nghidn ctfu stf dung bd dff lieu bang Dieu tra tid'p can ngudn Itfc hd gia dinh ndng thdn (VARHS) 2008-2016 nen md hinh hdi quy hieu tfng ed dinh la phu hdp dd' kid'm sodt cdc sai sd' eo dinh khdng quan sat dttdc d ed'p hd gia dinh va cd'p xa, vi the' cho kd't qua ttdc tinh tin cay hdn (Damon, 2010).
Phtfdng trinh hdi quy dtfdc stf dung la:
y.r=ff-\^''J^^,= ^f'ii=
Trong dd, y^^^ la ty le stf dung dat loai z cua hd gia dinh i trong nam t, x^^ la cac bid'n ddc lap d ca'p hg gia dinh, v, Id dde die'm eiia xa v ndi hd gia dinh i d nam t, p la sai so' cd' dinh thdi thdi gian khdng quan sat dttdc va p. la sai so bie'n dd'i theo thdi gian khdng quan sdt dttdc cua hp gia dinh i trong nam t dd'i vdi loai hinh stf dung dat z.
Do td'ng dien tieh dd't nong nghidp cua mdt hd gia dinh trong mdt nam cu thd' Id co dinh, cac ye'u td anh htfdng de'n xac sua't stf dung didn tich da't ndng nghidp cua hd gia dinh cho mdt loai hinh stf dung da't cu the cung cd thd' anh htfdng tdi kha nang stf dung da't ndng nghiep cho eac muc dieh stf dung dd't khde (Kokoye va edng stf, 2013). Do do, sai sdcua cac phttdng tnnh lua ehpn se cd ttfdng quan vdi nhau. Dd' giai quyd't van de nay doi hdi can ap dung md hinh SURE (Seemingly Unrelated Regression^ Model) (Zellner, 1962). Md hinh nay dtfdc diing de' tfdc Itfdng mdt so' md hinh hoi quy ed sai sdcac bie'n phu thudc gia dinh Id cd tttdng quan vdi nhau, theo dd trong md hinh xdc dinh yd'u to' anh httdng tdi Itfa chpn stf dung da't eua hd ndng dan se cd hd phtfdng trinh sau:
„x, + ^ - M„i
^P,:' f',,2
\y^a,x +v^+p,,^l'„s
\y[„-a[„x_, + \,-^P,4^(^-'^
Trong do, y ,, y ^ , y„ - va y„4 ^^ ^y 3^
da't ndng nghidp trdng ltfa. cdc lo^ai eay trdng hang ndm khac, cdy Idu nam va cae muc dich stf dung khac cua hp gia dinh i trong nam t. Do tdng cua tat ca cdc ty Id muc dich stf dung ddt cua hp gia dinh la 100%, y_,_, bi loai bd trong qud trinh ttdc Ittdng.
DS li$u cho nghien cffu ^ Nghidn ctfu stf dung dtf lieu Didu tra khao sat tiep edn ngudn Itfc hd gia dinh ndng thdn Viet Nam (VARHS). E^i^^.^p bat dau ttf nam 2006, vdi quy md dieu tra 2.324 hd gia dinh d 12 tinh (Dak Ldk, Ddk Ndng, Didn Bien, Ha Tdy, Khanh Hda, Lai Chdu, Lam Dong, Lao Cai, Long An, Nghd An, Phd Thp va Qudng Nam). VARHS dieu tra lap lai cac hp gia dinh qua cac ddt dieu tra dtfdc thtfc hien 2 nam mdt lan. Ddy la mdt nen tang dff lieu bang cha't Itfdng cao trong thdi gian ddi gan mtfdi nam, vi vay la mdt trong sd it cde bd dtf lieu mang vdi quy md mau va thdi gian dai nhtf vay. Ngodi ra, cae thdng tin trong bd dff Ueu khd chi tid't ca d ca'p dp hd gia dinh va cd'p dd manh da't, nen ddy cd thi coi la bd so' lieu dac bidt eho nghien ctfu nay. Trong bang dtf lieu bang qua cac nam, ttf 2008 dd'n 2016, da cd 2.131 hd gia dinh dtfdc phdng va'n trong ta't ca cac vdng khao sat.
Ngoai khao sat hd gia dinh, VARHS cung dieu tra d ca'p xd. Cdc cude phdng vd'n vdi cae cdn bd cd'p xa da dtfdc thtfc hidn d td't ca cac xa ndi cac hp gia dinh trong VARHS ctf tru. Mac dii cac hd gia dinh trai rdng tren 465 xa, dtf lieu bang Clia xd trong giai doan khao sdt ttf nam 2008 dd'n 2016 la 418 va dtfde stf dung trong nghidn cu\i nay.
KET QUA NGHIEN CUU Ke't qua euabd md hinh hdi quy vl Cdc yd'u td quye't dinh lua chon stf dung da't dttdc trinh bay trong Bang. Kiem dinh Wald xdc mmh viee stf dung cac md hinh SURE, cd y nghi;. tiidng kd d mtfc 1 %. Cac md hinh giai ''• :ch i o%_5 j ^^ ^^
thay ddi cua cdc bie'n ^ n: ihuQc Cac y & ta-khac ,„ '• cti arO, „fant.
dang ke ve mat thong ..-„ ^ j ; ,^ . B trong Ida, cac loai c: ,,,g |,jj^„
khac, cay lau nam va ighien V '•
160
BANG: CAC YEU TO QUYET DjMH LgfA
h' Bife'N CS^P lio gia dinh
Von at nhien Dien lich dat - logarilhm
Tv Ife dai CO giay chffnp nhan quy^n si'r dim^ dai {%) Khoang ctich de'n mSnh da't (km)
Von con ngt&i Tv ie phu thuoc Chuhol&nCi'(C6=])
Tu& binh quan trong do tuoi lao dpng (nam) Ty le ngu'di trong do tu^i lao dong ciia ho (%) Ty IS "Khong biei doc va vie't" (%) T^ le "Hoc hei tieu hgc" (%) Ty le "Hoan thanh trung hoc cd sci" (%) Tv 16 "Hoan thanh trung hoc phd thong" (%) Vfi'n vqt chat
So Wong xemay S6'lu'c(ng may phun thuoc trCf sau So lu'dng may keo Von tdi cliinh
Di6n tich nha d (m-) - logarithm Khoi lu'dng tiet ki6m (trieu d6ng) - log (x+1) Tdng Hen vay (Irieu dong) - log(x+l)
Cac khoSn chuyen nhircfng/ho trd tif ca nhan (trieu ddng) - log(x+l) Cac khoan chuygn nhUdng/ho ird til chinh phu va cac to chu'c xa hoi (meu ddng) - Iog(x+1)
Von xd hqi
Trong tru'dng hdp can tiln' vay mu'dn iCf ngu'di th3n (c6=l) Trong iru'dng hdp can tien: vay ban be (c6=l) Trong trudng hdp can tien: vay mUdn tiJ: hang xom (c6=l) Cong chii'c nha nUdc (c6=l)
Dang vien (c6=l)
ThSnh vien cua H3i phu nD'(co=l) CS'p xa
Phan phoi dat
Ty le ho co dien tich dat it hdn 0,5ha (%) Ty IS ho c6d]gn tich dat tif 0,5-1.Oha(%) Ty le h6 c6 dien tfch dai tif 1,0-2 Oha {%) Ty le ho co dien tich dat tir 2,0-5.0 ha {%) Ty le ho co dien tich dai ldn hdn 5.0ha (%) Chai liHf IIR dd't
Ty le dat dtfdc tddi tieu (%) Th] tridng hda Co chd hop hang ngay (c6=l) Cd chd phien (c6=]) Ket cau ha tdng xd hqi Co tru'dng tieu hoc (c6=l)
Co benh vien (c6-l) Cdbifudien(c6=l) Co trifdng trung hoc (c6=l) Khodng cdch
Khoang each tCf trung tam xa den tram xe buyt gdn nhat (km)
CHQN Stf DUNG DAT (MO HIMH Al) (1)
Mo hinh Al - Ty 1$ da't trdng lua
-0.2209 ^- 0.0132 -0,0023***
0,0438 -0,0734*-^*
0,0004 0,0094 -0,0586 -0,0246 -0.0259 -0,0374 -0,0049 0,0665***
-0,0262 -0,0224***
-0,0047***
0,0012 -0,0023**
-0,0049***
0,0112 0,0052 0,0095 0,0329*
-0.0078 0,0276
0,0076 0,0117 -0.0632*
0,1033*^^
0,2849***
-0,0149***
-0,0102 -0.0509^*' -0,0690 0,1416***
0,0024 0,0236 -0.0207*
-0,0076 0,0004*"
(2) Mflhinh A l - T y 1$ da't trdng cSy ng^n ngay khac
-0.0142 -0,0182*
-0,0004 -0,0270 0,1172-^=**
-0,0002 -0,0077 0,0581 0.0373 0,0084 0,0107 -0,0054 -0,0317***
-0,0918^**
0,0223***
0,0035***
-0,0038***
0,0009 0,0084***
-0,0117 -0.0059 -0,0076 -0,0181 0,0157 -0,0163
0,0137 0,0233 0,0283 -0,0896**
0,0185 0,0100***
0,0180**
0.0281***
0,0916 -0,1386-'*- -0,0224 -0,0441**
0.0093 0,0030 -0.00O7"'**
(3) M6 hinh AI - Ty 1$ da't trdng
cSy dai ngay
0,1 174***
0,0098 0,0034***
-0,0155 -0,0419**
-0,0001 0,0063 0,0013 -0,0031 0,0124 0,0242 0,0067 -0,0161***
0,1312***
0,0050 0.0014*
0,0029***
0,0016**
-0,0023***
-0,0054 -0,0079 -0,0092 -0,0047 -0.0224**
-0,0128
-0,0082 -0,0314*
0,0430*
0,0867***
-0,2436***
0.0068***
-0.0088 0.0154**
-0,0896**
0,0070 0,0219"*
0,0181 0,0165'*
0,0235''' 0.0002
Mo hinh Al - Ty 1^ da't lam nghiap
0,1106***
0,0025 -0,0006**
0,0040 -0,0048 -0,0001 -0,0059 0,0043 0,0076 0,0098 0,0070 -0,0040 -0,0094***
-0,0070 -0,0065**
-0,0009**
-0,0006 0,0003 -0,0004 -0,0033 0,0012 0,0041 -0,0039 0,0107*
0,0042
-0,0124*
-0,0045 -0,0119 -0,0745***
-0,0048 -0.0010 0,0037 0,0121***
0,0432*
-0,0121 0,0007 0.0026 -0.0069 -0,0100*
0,0001*
Economy and Forecasl Review 161
BIEN
Khoang each tir irung tam xa den du'dng nhiJa gan nhat (km) Khoang each tif trung tam xa de'n trung tam huyen (km) Khoang each tif trung tam xa den trung tam khuyen nong (km) Khoang each tif trung tSm xa den cu'a hang khuyen nong (km) Viec ldm phi nong nghiap
So doanh nghiep cd quy mo ldn hdn 10 lao dong tai xa Doanh nghiep co 10 nhan vien tr6 len d xa ben canh (bien gia) Dieu kien song
Ty le he tho'ng den di6n (%) Ty le he thd'ng cung cap nu'dc sach (%) Cdc cii soc tu nhien vd nong ngltiep Lu lut nam ngoai (c6=l) Han han nam ngoai (year=l) Bao nam ngoai (ed=I) Sat Id da'l nam ngoai (c6= 1) Dich benh chan nuoi nam ngoai (cd=l) Dich b^nh cay trdng nam ngoai (c6= 1) Con trimg/chuot nam ngodi (c6=lj Lu lut hai nam tru'de (cd=l) Han han hai nam tru'de {year=l) Bao hai nam tru'dc (c6=l) Sat Id dat hai nam tru'dc (c6=l) Dich benh chan nuoi hai nam tru'dc (cd=l) Dich benh cay trong hai nam tru'dc (c6=l) Con trimg/chuot hai nam tru'dc (ed=l) Bten gtd ndm
Bie'n gid ve thih Var(e.*)
Hiep phifdng sai (e.price_,e.*) Hiep phifdng sai (e.pother_annual_,e.*) Hiep phu'dng sai (e.pperennial_,e.pforesiry_) So quan sat
Kiem dinh Wald R- R'chung Log likelihood
Chiigidi: *'''^p<O.Ol. **p<0.05. *p<O.I
(I) M6 hjnh Al
- Ty 1§ daft trdngIda
0,0004*"^
-0,0003 -0,0001 0,0004**
-0,0000 0,0028 0,0003**
-0,0004***
0,0377***
-0,0170 0,0103 -0.0217 -0,0138 -0.0043 0,0075 0,0030 -0.0010 0,0079 -0,0433**
0.0127 -0,0047 -0,0018 Co Ca 0,1093***
(0,0018)
7,669 5578,02***
0.32
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0,0010**
-0.0001 0.0000 0,0178**
-0,0003**
0,0005***
-0.0153 -0.0111 -0,0390***
0,0300*
0,0206**
0,0066 0,0073 0,0000 0.0019 0,0109 0.0476***
0,0101 -0,0152 -0,0039 Cd Co 0,0967*** (0,0016) -0,0715***
(0,0014)
7,669 805,70***
0.10 0.65
M6 hinh ! - Ty 1$ dat i ^ng
-0,0002^- 0,0003'^
-0,0004 -0.0002' 0,0000 -0.0349^**
0,000!
0,0000 -0,0134- 0,0187**
0,0199**
-0,0134 -0,0043 -0,0008 -0,0199*
-0,0081 0,0078 -0,01 15 -0,0019 -0.0227***
0,0184**
0,0134 Cd Co 0,0451***
(0,00073) -0,0225***
(0,0008) -0.0182***
(0,0008)
7,669 8050,99^**
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-0.0000 -0,0121***
0,0022 0,0167***
0,0094 -0,0004 0.0076 0,0041 0.0096**
-0.0015 -0,0132***
0,0023 -0.0037 -0,0087*
-0.0090 Cd Cd 0,0142***
(0,000^) -0,0065***
(0,0005) -0,0039***
(0.0004) -0,0034***
(0.00031 7,669
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chii y, mot so'yd'u to'co tac dong tieu ciTc trong vide lifa chon suf dung dd't nay, nhuYig lai co tdc dong tich cifc do'i vdi lu'a chon sijf dung da't khde.
Bo'i vdi vo'n iff nhidn, quy mo da't nong nghidp deu CO dnh hu'dng dang ke ve mat thong ke doi vdi ty Id dd't trong lua, cay trong hdng nam khde, cay trong Idu nam vd ldm nghiep. Tuy nhidn, no co tac dong tidu cu'c de'n ty Id da't trong liia va cac loai cay trong hang ndm khac va tdc dong tich cu'c de'n phan da'l cua cay lau ndm va lam nghidp. Ty Id dd't sd hiTu co tac dong tich CLTC ddng ke de'n ty le dd't trong cdy ]au nam va ldm nghidp. Khoang each tiJf nhd dan de'n cdc canh
dong CO tac dong tidu cue dang ke de'n ty Id da't trong lua va lam nghidp, nhifng dnh hu'dng tfch cu'c dang ke de'n ty le dd't trong cdy lau nam.
'•^_ddng ke \
• " t t r d n g Ma.
Doi vdi vdn con ngiro'! ly |g ngirdi phu thuoc CO anh hu'dng tii.' • - -- . f ••.
mat tho'ng ke doi vdi t\ ;e dd't t Dj^u nay cd the diTdc gui, ihich bd^thufc td' la vide san xuat ca\ K^, nan-, , • i^'
, . '*<iiii v^t lajTi nghidp doijioi miTc dau -.ir ban ddu khdng CO sdn cho cdc h(. '.ladinhc' 'T-' ngu'di phu thupc cao. Hi i.^ dinh 1" - ^
162
anh hifdng tidu ci^c cd y nghia thong kd de'n ty le dd't trong lua vd cdy Idu nd^m, nhtmg tdc ddng tich cifc cd y nghia thong kd dd'n ty le da't cua cdc loai cay trong hang ndm khac, Nong dan co trinh do hgc vdn cao nhir khi ho hoan thdnh chiTdng trinh trung hpc pho thdng, hp se tr6ng it lua hdn so vdi nhiTng ngu'di khde.
Ve vo'n vat cha't, so' lifdng may phun thuoc trif sdu cd tdc dpng tich cifc dd'n t^ Id trong lua, nhtmg tac dpng tieu cu'c dd'n ty Id da't trong cua cac loai cay trong hang nam khac, cdy lau nam vd ldm nghiep. Dieu ndy cd the dtfdc giai thich la mdy phun thuoc trif sdu rat pho' bie'n va hieu qua trong san xua't lua. So lifdng mdy keo cd tac dpng tich cifc de'n ty le da't trong cdy Idu nam, nhifng tdc dpng tidu ci^c den phan da't trong Wa, cac loai cay trong hang ndm khac. Nhif dd giai thich d trdn, Ida la cay trong chinh d Vidt Nam, nhiftig didn tich da't trung binh cho Ilia nhd ndn khong hieu qua khi siJ dung nhieu may keo.
Ve vd'n tai chinh, dien tich nha co tac dpng tidu cu'c dd'n ty le da't trong lua, lam nghiep, nhifng tac dpng tich cifc den ph^n dd't cua cac loai cay trong hang nam khde. Dieu nay chi ra rang, trong mdu cHa nghien ciJu, cac hp gia dinh cang gidu cd, thi san lu'dng Ida cang tha'p. Nhij'ng hp kha gia ndy du'dng nhtf dau tlf nhieu hdn vdo cac loai cdy trong hang nam khac. Xet ve khoi lifdng tid't kiem, nd co tac dpng tieu cifc dd'n phan dd't trong Ilia, nhifng tdc ddng tich crfc de'n phan dd't cua cdc loai cay hang nam khde va cay lau ndm, trong khi xem xet dd'n vd'n de ve quy md cho vay, no cd tdc dpng tieu cifc dd'n cdc loai cdy hang ndm khac, nhutig tac ddng tich ctfc de'n cay trong lau nam. Phdt hien nay chi ra rang, diu ttf vao cdc loai cdy tr6ng hang nam khac co the ddp u'ng bdi kho'i lifdng tiet kidm sdn cd cua hd gia dinh trong khi cdy trong Idu nam cd the phai can nhieu von dau tu-, ddi khi viTdt khoi tlm tay cua ho gia dinh. Xem xet de'n stf chuyen nhifdng/hd trd tiJ- cd nhdn va chinh phui xa hoi, chuyen nhu'png ttf cdc cd nhdn cd tac dpng tieu ci/c de'n phan dd't tr6ng Wa, nhu'ng tdc dpng tich ctfc dd'n phan da't cua cdc loai cay trong hang nam khde va cdy lau nani, trong^ khi chuyen nhu'png tiy chinh phu/cdc to chdc xa hdi cd tdc ddng tidu ctfc de'n ca liia va cay lau nam, nhifng anh hifdng tich cifc de'n cay trdng hang nam khde.
Doi vdl vd'n xa hdi, vide Id mdt ngu'di dang vidn cd tdc ddng tich cu'c de'n phan dd't ldm nghiep, nhifng tac dpng tidu cite den cay trong lau nam. Ne'u trong ttf each la thanh vien thiipc Hdi Phu nif, thi nd tac ddng tich cu'c de'n phan dd't trong lua. Dieu nay la do la mpt nifdc xud't khau gao, cdc to chu'c nhu" vay d Vidt Nam hd trp rd't ldn cho ndng dan trong viec san xua't Ilia gao.
Dd'i vdi dieu kien sd'ng, ty le he thd'ng den dien tifdng quan du'dng vdi ty Id da't trdng liia nhifng tidu cifc vdl ty Id da't trdng cay ldm nghiep. M6t ldi giai thich hdp ly la do: lua chu ye'u du'dc trdng d viing ddng bdng trong khi cdy ldm nghiep lai chu ye'u d vung doi, mien niii hodc thdm chi viing sau vilng xa. Md'i tUcfng quan giii'a he tho'ng cung cd'p ntfdc sach vd ty Id dd't cho cac loai cdy trong hang nam khac la cung chieu.
Ve thi tru'dng, ca chd hang ngdy va chp phien deu cd md'i tu'dng quan nghich vdi ty Id da't trdng liia, trong khi chp hdng ngdy cd mo'i tifdng quan tich cifc vdi cac loai cdy trong hang nam khac vd chd phien cd mo'i tu'dng quan tich cifc vdi ca cdy trong hang nam khde, cay lau nam va lam nghiep.
Ve c(3 sd vat chat ha tang xa hpi, nhif: gido due, cham sdc su'c khde, bifu didn, xd cd tru'dng tieu hpc cd tifcfng quan nghich vdi ty le da't trong cdy lau ndm, trong khi xa cd trifdng trung hpc cd tu'dng quan thudn vdi ty Id dd't trdng cay lau nam nhifng lai giam ty Id da't ldm nghiep. Xa cd trung tam cham sdc sflc khde va bdnh vidn, tdng ca didn tich dd't trdng liia va giam ty Id da't trong cay hang nam khde, trong khi xd cd trung tam y td'lai tdng ty le dd't trdng cay lau nam.
Lien quan dd'n cdc bid'n khodng each, khoang cdch dd'n tram xe buyt gan nha't cd tac dpng nghich de'n ty le da't cua cac loai cdy trdng hang nam khac, nhu'ng lam tang ty Id da't trong Iua va Idm nghiep. Khoang each cdch de'n difdng nhifa chinh cd anh hu'dng tich cifc tdi ty trpng dd't trdng lua. Khoang cdch tif de'n trung tdm huyen cd anh hifdng ngu'pc tdi ty Id da't trdng liia nhu'ng lai anh hu'dng thuan tdi tang ty Id da't trong cay lau nam va ldm nghiep. Khoang each tii dd'n trung tam khuyd'n ndng cd anh hifdng tich cu'c tdi ty le dd't cua cac loai cay trong hang nam khde nhimg lam giam ty Id dd't trdng cdy lau nam vd ldm nghiep. Trong khi do, khoang cdch de'n cu:a hang khuyen nong Iai cd dnh hifdng thudn tdi ty trpng da't trong liia, nhifng lai anh hifdng nghich tdi ty trpng da't cua cay lau nam.
Cd hpi vide lam lu'dng phi nong nghiep ngoai xa se lam anh hu'dng tidu cifc tdi ty le dd't trdng cay Idu nam nhifng lai cd anh hifdng tich cifc tdi ty Id da't Idm nghidp.
Tdc iapng tii kmh nghiem u'ng phd vdi cac sd'c thdi tid't cung phan dnh mdc dp uXi tidn danh cho tJifng loai hinh siJ dung dd't d Viet Nam. Xa da trai qua trdn lut nam ngodi cd xu hu'dng phdn bo' nhieu da't hdn cho Ilia va it dd't hdn cho lam nghiep. Didu nay Id do Idm nghiep ddi hdi mdt mdc dau Iff ban dau cao va mpt khoang thdi gian dai de' co difdc ldi nhuan. Ngoai ra, nhang cd soc co the ddn de'n ma't thu nhdp va do do, ndng ddn khdng the dau tif vao lam nghidp. Ddi vdi
Economy and Forecasl Review 163
trong Wa, Iu lut nam ngoai cd the mang lai nhi^u dmh difdng cho dd't hdn, do dd, ndng ddn mong muo'n dupc trdng nhidu hdn trong nam^dieu tra. Xa da trai qua han hdn nam ngoai se phdn bo thdm dd't cho cdy trdng Idu nam. Xa da trai qua cdn bdo nam ngoai se phdn bd nhieu da't hdn cho Iiia vd lam nghiep vd it da't hon cho cac loai cdy trong hang nam khde. Xa cd cdc vu sat Id dd't nam ngodi se phdn bd them dd't cho cdc loai cdy trong hang nam khac. Xa cd dich benh dpng vdt/gia sue nam ngodi se phdn bd it da't hdn cho lua va nhieu dd't hdn cho cdc loai cay trdng hang nam khde. Xd phai chiu nan cdn trilng/chupt tan phd nam ngodi se phdn bd it da't hdn cho cdy trdng Idu nam.
Khi thdi gian xdy ra cdc cii soc keo ddi hdn, tif mpt 1 dd'n 2 nam, xa hdng chiu 10 lut hai ndm trifdc cd xu hifdng phan phd'i them dd't cho ldm nghiep. Xa cd hifng chiu bao hai nam trifdc cd xu hu'dng phan bd it dd't cho Iam nghiep. Xa cd cdc vu sat Id dd't hai ndm tru'dc cd xu hifdng phdn bd them dd't cho cdc loai cay trdng hang ndm khac. Xa trai qua nan dich bdnh ddng vat/gia sue hai ndm trifdc cd xu hudng phdn bd nhieu dd't hdn cho lua va it dd't hdn cho cay trdng lau ndm. Xa cd cay trdng bj djch/bdnh hai ndm trifdc lai cd xu hu'dng phan bd it dd't cho cay Idu ndm. Xd cd nan con trung/chupt phd hoai hai nam tru'dc cd xu hddng phan bo nhieu dd't hdn cho cay trdng lau ndm.
KET LUAN VA KIEN NGH!
Kd't qua nghidn cii'u cho Ehd'y, vide ra quye't dinh siJ dung da't cua ndng ddn dUdc xdc dinh bdi cdc ye'u to' khde nhau dai didn cho nen tdng sinh kd', kinh nghiem, ky vpng ve cac cu sd'c thdi tid't va dieu kidn kinh td', vat chd't Clia cac dia phu'dng. Cu the' hdn, lien quan dd'n
lifa chon sil dung dat, c u \eu to cc an hirdng ddng kd' la quy niu manh da' cu ho ndng dan, ty Id dat dupc tifdi tjeu- ly Id dd't cd gid'y chd'ng nhdn quy^n f^^^,^
dd't, khoang each tif nha d dd'n manh dat, ty Id ngu'di phu thupc, gidi tinh cua cnu hd, so' lifdng may keo, dien lich nha, khoi lifdng tid't kiem, quy md cho vaV' cac khoan chuyen nhupng/hd trd tiJf Chinh phu va cac to' chu'c xa hdi, cac khoan ehuyd'n nhdpng/hd trd ttf cdc cd nhan, dja hinh vd ddc did'm cua cdc th^a ddt, chat lifdng da't d ca ca'p hp gm dinh va xa, ca sd ha tang xd hdi, vi tri khoang each tdi_
cdc trung tam, dieu kidn sd'ng vd su" co Clia thdi tid't.
Nhffng phat hien cua nghien cdu co y nghia quan trong cd lien quan dd'n ndng ddn va cdc nha hoach dinh chinh sdch.
Nghidn ci?u de xua't: (i) Day manh thifc thi quyen tdi san do'i vdi da't dai; (ii) Giam phdn manh da't dai thong qua tich tu, tap trung rudng dd't; (iii) Tao dieu kidn thudn Idi de thifc hien giao dich da't dai ke ca mua ban vd diud mifdn da't dai; (iv) Tang cu'dng tie'p can nguon life tin dung va he thd'ng didn lifdi qud'c gia; (v) Cai thien dieu kidn ha tang nong thdn; (vi) Thu hut dau tlf vao phat trie'n hoat ddng ndng nghiep va phi ndng nghidp d nong thdn;
(vii) Chinh sach dd't dai cho cdy lua vi muc tieu an ninh lifdng thifc nen du'dc ndi long va linh hoat hdn; (viii) Giam cac can trd trong phat trien ngudn vd'n con ngifdi.•
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1. Angelsen, A., & Kaimowitz, D. (2000). Rethinking the causes of deforestation: lessons from economic models. National Bank News Review (Mumbai), 16( 1), 5-23
2. Ashley, C , & Carney, D. (1999). Sustainable livelihoods: Lessons from early experience, Department for International Development London
3. Damon, C. (2010). Selecdve schools and academic achievement. The BE Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy, 10
4. De Janvry, A., & Sadoulet, E. (2010). The Global Food Crisis and Guatemala- What Crisis and for Whom? World Development. 38(9), 1328-1339
5. Ellis, F. (2000). Rural livelihoods and diversity in developing countries. Oxford universitv oress 6. FAO (2012). The state of food insecurity in the World 2012: Economic growth is necessary but not sufficient to accelerate reduction of hunger and malnutrition
7. Kokoye, S.E.H, Yabi, J.A, Tovignan, D.S, Yegbemey,R.N, Emst-Augusi Nuppenau E A (2013). Simultaneous Modelling of the Determinants of the Partial Inputs Productivitv in the Municipality of Banikoara, Northern Benin, Jr)Mr«a/q//lgnci//mra/5y5fem5, 122(2013) 51, <;g
8. Nguyen, T. T., Nguyen, L. D., Lippe, R S., & Grote. U. (2017). Determinants of farmers'1 d use decision-making: Comparative evidence from Thailand and Vietnam, WoHd Hr. elon,>. To 199-213 ''Jf, «y,
9. Scoones, I. (1998). Sustainable rural livelihoods, a framework for analysr
10. Zellner, A, (1962). An Efficient Method of Estimating Seemingly Unrek, ..j ResiL's ^ and Tests for Aggregation Bias, Journal of the Amencan Statistical Association. :"i ryg, '34r'^'^'Jf
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