CVv415S22015029.pdf

(INTRODUCnON AND EXCHANGE) 1 B » 0 DM. GUJI THIEU CHnrOI MGiMH 1

Rui ro du an, quan ly rui ro du an va cac chien luge doi pho rui ro co ban

• T h S . V U QUYET T H A N G

PHO TRUONG PHONG NGHIEN CUU C H I ^ LUOC VA CO CHE QUAN LV KINH Tt NGANH, VI£N KINH TE XAY DUNG

• TS. NGUYEN TH^ Q U A N

TRUONG B O M O N Q U A N L V DU AN VA P H A P L U A T , TRUONG DAI HOC X A Y DUNG (Bai nhan ngay 20/05/2015, hoan chinh sQa chQa ngiy 31/05/2015)

TOM TAT.

Moi dli an, ke ca dU an dau tir xay diing, deu chu'a diing rui ro. Cac rui ro mang tinh tieu ciic khi xay ra se gay ra nhijmg ton that cho dii an anh hucmg den cac muc tieu ma dii an can dat dUOc, trong khi cac chQ the tham gia dii an deu mong muon tan dung dUOc co hpi do cac rui ro mang tinh tich ciic dem den. Vi vay, viec xac djnh cac rui ro, lam ro phuong phap quan ly rui ro va chien luoc doi pho rui ro cho dii an la het su'c can thiet nham nang cao co hpi va giam thieu nguy co doi vdi cac muc tieu cua diian. Bai bao lam ro khai niem rui ro dii an va cac khai niem CO lien quan, trinh bay thai do doi pho rui ro, 6 qua trinh quan ly dii an va phan tfch 8 chien lUOc doi pho rijii ro cho cac rut ro thupe ca hai nhom ccr hpi va nguy ccr.

TL/ khoa Rui ro dii an, thai dp doi vol rui ro, qua trinh quan ly rui ro, chien lugc quan ly rui ro

ABSTRACT: All projects. Including construction investment projects, always contain risks. Negative risks when occuring in a project may bring damages to the project that harm the project's targets. Project stakeholders always wish to take advantages from positive risks.

Therefore, identifying risks, defining risk management approach and risk response strategies are very significantly important for enhancing opportunities and minimizing threats to the projects' objectives. This paper clarifies risk and related concepts, presenting the core risk attitudes, six risk management processes and analyzing 8 risk response strategies for both risk groups of opportunities and threats.

Keywords: Project risks, risk attitudes, risk management process, risk response strategies

L D A T V A N O i

Bat cQ du In nao dQOc tnen khai cung CO nhQng gidi han ve khdng gian, thdi gian, d c ngudn luc nhU tai chinh, ngudn nhan lyc, tli nguyin thiln nhiln .. va cd Inh hudng hole bi Inh hUdng bdi mdt sd bin hOu quan nhit dinh.

Trong tat ca cic giai doan eua dQ an ludn ed nhQng su ki|n, dieu kiln dien ra Inh hudng true tilp hoac gian tiep den

vile thyc hien dUin, khien dUln cd t h i khdng dat dUoe mpt hoae mpt sd cie mye tilu ma cic chii the du In dat ra.

CIc su kiln, dieu kien nhuvay duoc goi II d c rui ro dU an. De dim blo du i n thanh cdng, rui ro du i n d n dupc quln ty. Bli vilt nay tap tnjng vao vile lam rd khii nilm rui ro du In, d c ehiln luoc ddi phd rui ro co ban va mdt sd van de cd liln quan.

2. RUI RO Dir AN 2 1. Khai niem rui ro

RiJi ro la van de rat dupc quan tim nghiin cQu, vi thi, cd nhieu khii mem rdi ro duac de xuat vl sQ dyng. "Rieo quan nilm thdng thQdng, aii ro thQdng mang nghTa tilu cue, do do cd ngudi quan niem mi ro ia 'yiu td filn quan den nguy hiem, sy khd khin va dieu

• l B J U > B d i a t t l ^ D m T T £ M I I G J U I H (INTRODUCTION AND EXCHANGE)

khdng chic chin' hay la "nhQng nguy hiem, thilt hai, dau ddn cd the xly ra khdng ludng trudc dupc' [1]. Khic vdi d e quan nilm ve nji ro truyen thdng, d c quan nilm rui ro hien dai cdn xem xet d gdc dp "tich eye' eua riii ro [4], theo dd rui ro "cd thi mang lai de ton thit, thilt hai va dong thdi cung cd the mang lai cic co hdi dat duoe loi nhuan eaohon"[l]

Rill ro cd the dQoc xem xet dUdi gdc dd td chQc, doanh nghiip. Khi ay, rui ro cd the hieu la "khdng ed khi nlng dat duoe d c mue tieu eiia ke hoach tuong lai trong pham vi chi phi, thdi gian vl dieu kien ky thuit ring budc'll]

Ddi vdi cic dy an, kl cl du i n dau tu xiy dyng, khli nilm'rui ro duln" dupc chap nhan rdng rai II khli ni|m do Viln Quin ly du In (PMI) de xuit nhu sau [3]

"Rui ro II mpt sy kien hay dilu kiln chua chic chin ma nlu nd xly ra, sl cd inh hudng din it nhit mdt muc tilu ciia du in, vi du nhu ph^m vi, tiln dp, chi phi vi chat lupng Rui ro ludn nim trong tuong lai l^ldtruirocdthlcdmpt hole nhilu nguyin nhin giy ra vl nlu nd xiy ra, eung ed thi giy ra mdt hole nhilu inh hudng Nguyin nhin giy ra riii ro ed the li mdt yiu d u , gil thilt, rang budc, hole dieu kien ml tao ra d c kit qui tich cue hole tieu cue' Khli niem niy gin chat hon vdi vi|c do iudng su thanh cdng cua cic du an bing vile gin ket inh hudng cua rill ro tdi cic mue tilu ehinh cua du an, bao gdm pham vi, tien do, chi phi, chat luong. Nhu thi, cic rui ro cd the inh hudng din du In theo cle deh khie nhau vl 6 nhQng thdi diem khic nhau trong sudt vdng ddi dy In, nhung hau qui ciia nd cd thi duoc quy ve inh hudng den mdt hole nhilu muc tilu trong sd bdn muc tieu ehinh ciia du In ndi tren

Ndi chung, d c khli nilm v l riii ro deu nhan manh tinh khdng chic chin, chi cd khi nang xly ra cua riii ro vdi xac suit xly ra nhit dinh. Khia eanh khic eung duoc quan tim eua rui ro II mQc dd tdn thit thilt hai hole loi ich dai dQpe do rui to gay nen (tie ddng eiia nji ro) Khi nlng xuit hiln vl tie ddng

cua rui ro duac coi la hai mat chinh d n quan tam cua riii ro vl thudng dUpc sQ dung de phin tich, dinh gia rui ro, ke cl riii ro dQ in.

2.2. Thai do doi vdi rdi ro Ngudl ta thQdng cd ba thai do eo bin ddi vdi rill ro nhQ sau so rui ro, thich rui ro va bang quan/trung tinh vdi rui ro Mot ngudl hay mdt td chQc so nil fo d m thay khdng thoii mii vdi sU khdng chic chin, khdng chap nhin duoc sU mo hd, vl tim each dim blo an toan eho minh khi ddi mat vdi rui ro. Khi duoc phep chon giQa mdt tinh hudng khdng chic chin va mdt tinh hudng chac chin cd gil ttj ky vpng tuong duong, hp se chpn tinh hudng chic chin Khi Ip dung ddi vdi d c co hdi, ho cd the khdng nhin thay nhieu eo hdi, hoae ed the cd xu hQdng dinh gii thip tim quan trpng ciia hp, va cd thi khdng chuan bi san sing d l thyc hiln cle budc cin thilt d l ting cUdng hole nim bit duoc co hdi. NgUdi thich riii ro thi nguoc lai, ludn tim kiem cic riii ro d l lua chon. NgUdi bang quan vdi riii ro chi quan tam den gii tn ky vpng ml khdng de y tdi dd may riii ciia tinh hudng.

Cd ba yeu td tao nin thai dd ddi vdi riii ro nhusau [3]:

- MQc dd himg thu vdi rui ro (Risk appetite)' mQc dd khdng chic chin/bat dinh ngudl ta sin Idng hQng chiu vdi ky vpng CO duoc mdt kit qui tieh eUc - SQc chiu rui ro (Risk tolerance): mQc do, mdc hoic sd iQpng rui ro ma mdt to chQc hoac d nhan se chdng choi/

ehiu duoc

- Ngudng riii ro (Risk threshold} mQc dd bat dinh/anh hudng ma td chQc bit diu quan tim xQ ly riii ro, dudi mQc do ho chap nhin rQi ro de xQ ly, trin ngQdng do ho khdng chip nhin chiu rill ro do,

2 3. Phan ioai rui ro

RCii ro rat da dang va ed rit nhilu deh de phin loai. Hinh 1 tdng kit mdt sd deh phin loai rui ro theo cic gdc dd sau: ddi tuong rui ro, tinh chat boat ddng, pham vi, khi nang blo hilm, khi nang luong hda, ITnh vuc hoat ddng vl

ngudn gdc nji ro. (Hinhl) MIc du sU phan loai nay duoc dien giai cho cic rui ro cua doanh nghiep, nd van ed the duac tham khao de phan loai cic rui ro cua d u l n

Rill ro cdn duoc phin loai theo vile ehung tic dong tich cue hay tilu cue din du In. Riii ro ed tie ddng tich cue din du i n cdn dupc goi la riii ro thudc loai CO hdi, trong khi riii ro cd tac ddng tieu cyc den du i n cdn goi II riii ro thudc loai nguy co-

Ngoai ra rdi ro cd the duoc phin loai theo mQc dd duoc nhan dang nhU sau' - RUI ro da biet (dl nhan dang dupc), da duoc nhan dang vl phin tich, cd the lip ke hoach ddi phd; de rui ro da biet khdng the ehCi ddng quin ly can dupc bd tri mdt khoin dy phdng;

- RQi ro chua bilt (chQa nhan dang dQoc). khdng the quan ly mdt each ehii ddng va do do cin bo tri mpt khoin dy phdng die bilt,

3. CAC QUA TRtNH Q U A N LY RUIRO

Thdng thudng, vile quln ly riii ro dU In dupc thuc hi|n thdng qua ba bude ehinh la nhan dang rui ro, phin tich rCil ro va ddi phd riJi ro Tuy nhien, Vien Quin ly dy an (PMI) da cii tien, ehi tilt hda d c ndi dung nay vl d l xuat 5 qui trinh quln ly riii ro dU In. Dd II cae qui trinh Lap ke hoach quln ly riii ro, Nhan dang rui ro, Phin tieh dmh tinh rui ro, Phin tich dinh luong riii ro. Lap k l hoach ddi phd rui ro, va Kilm soat riii ro [3]

Lap ke hoach quln ly riii ro la qui trinh xic dmh each thQc thQc hien d c hoat ddng quln ly riii ro cho duan Qua trinh nay nhim muc dich dim blo ring mQc dd, chiing loat vl tinh minh bach ciia viec quln ly riii ro II phii hop vdi cl dc riii ro v l mQc do quan trong ciia du an ddi vdi to chQc

Tai lieu Ke hoach quln ly riii ro II sin pham cua qui trinh nay. Kl hoach quln ly rui ro la edng cu quan trong dQOe sQ dung de dim blo ed dupc thda thuin vl hd tro tQ cac ben hCfu quan dQ an. til

(iNTRODUCTiON AND EXCHANGE) T B A O D O I , C X n T H I ^ C I I i n r E H NGANH I

Theo <l6i ni^ng

Riiirt) Ruiro RiJiro Ruiro

ve nhan lire ve phap ly v£ lai san v ^ t h d i g i a n . . . .

Hinh 1. Phin loai rCii ro theo cic ti^u chf khic nhau [1 ] dd d c qui trinh quln ly riii ro duoc hd trp va thue hien mdt cich ed hieu qui trong sudt vong ddi dy i n Kl hoach quln ly riii ro cd the so bd hole chi tilt, nhung can ed d c ndi dung cO bin sau [3]:

- Phuong phip luin quln ly rui ro (xic i^nh eleh tiep can, cdng cy, ngudn dQ lieu sQdung de thuc hiln quln ly riii ro cho duln);

- Vai trd vl trich nhiem ciia cie d nhin dim nhin vile quln ly riii ro;

- Ngin sleh bd tri cho boat ddng quln ly rui ro;

- Thdi gian (xic dmh thdi diem thue hi|n cic boat ddng quin in rui ro, xac dinh thdi gian gianh cho d c boat ddng quin tri rui ro trong tiln do thuc hien duln);

- Phin loai ruiro;

- Xic dmh khi nlng xly ra vl anh hudng CLia ruiro,

- Suthay doi ve mQc chiu rijirocijadc bin hQu quan;

- Cac mau bieu bao d o trong hoat ddng quin tn rui ro ..

Nhan dang rui ro la qui trinh xac dmh nhQng rui ro cd the Inh hQdng den dQ In v l van bin hda d e die diem ciia ehung. Kit qua eua qui trinh nay II tli lieu Danh muc aii ro. Oanh muc nay md t i cie rui ro d l duac nhan dang, danh muc d c hoat ddng ddi pho rui ro cd t h i sQ dung cho cac rui ro da dQOC nhan dang va d c thdng tin d n thiet khic.

Phin tich dinh tinh rui ro i l qua trinh sap xIp thQ ty uu tiln d c rui ro nhd viec kit hop kha nang xly ra va Inh hudng cua chung (goi tit la muc do rui ro), nhim muc dich phuc vu cho vi|c phin tich dinh luong nji ro hole thyc

hiln eie boat ddng tiep theo. Ngudi ta luong hda khi nang xly ra (do bang xac suit xuat hiln) vl tic dpng (mQc do Inh hQdng) ciia riii ro de tinh gia tri kit hop (cdn gpi la mQc dp rui ro, bing xic suat xuat hiln, nhin vdi mQc do inh hQdng cua rdi ro ddi vdi dQ In), Cac rui ro se duac sap xIp theo thU tu mQc dp rui ro giim din, cic rui ro dQng trQdc cd mQc dd Uu tlln cao hon Trong Hinh 2, chi d e riii ro cd gil tn kit hop tQ 0,18 trd lln (dc rui ro cao) mdi cin dQoc Uu tlln gill quyet, d e rui ro cd mQc dd rui ro tQ 0 05 trd xudng la cic riii ro thap va cd the khdng d n quln ly. luu y, ddng CUOI cung la gia tri tic ddng eiia riii ro den muctilu cua duin (Hinh 2) Phin tich dinh iQong riii ro la qui trinh phin tich dQ lieu dudi dang so hiu qui ciia de riii ro dUOc nhan dang ddi vdi d c dQ in, cic riii ro nay d i duoc sip xIp thQ tu Uu tlln nhd qua trinh phin tieh dinh tinh rui ro. Nd cung t h i hien cich tiep can dinh luong tdi vile ra quyit dmh trong dieu kien bat dinh.

Vile phin tich dmh luong riii ro thudng dl sau phan tich dinh tinh riii ro, tuy nhien khdng bat bude phai phan tich dmh luong riii ro ddi vdi tat d d c dQ In VI vile phan tich dmh iQpng rat phQc tap va doi hdi hao phi v l thdi gian va chi phi Idn Cac phQong phip phin tich dmh tinh riii ro dien hinh bao gdm phin tich do nhay ciia du In, phin tieh gii tri tien t l ky vong (Expected Monetary Value - EMV), md hinh hda vl md phdng

Lap ke hoach ddi phd rui ro la qui trinh xiy dung cie phQong an hanh ddng d l nlng cao co hoi va giim thieu nguy eo ddi vdi d c muc tilu eua du in. Vile lap ke hoaeh ddi phd rui ro ddi hdi ngudi quln ly rui ro phii can nhic lua chon d c chiln luoc ddi phd rui ro cO bin, tQ dd de xuat hinh dpng eu the cho d c phuong an hanh ddng. Cac chien luoc ddi phd rdi ro co ban duoc trinh bay trong mue 4 dudi diy. Cac hoat ddng ddi phd rui ro dUoc lip ke hoaeh phli phu hpp vdi mUc dp dang ke cua rui ro, phi! cd hllu qui v l mat kmh te trong khi van mang tinh thich thQc va thyc te vdi d c dilu kiln ciia dQ In, vl duoe tat cl cac ben tham gia ddng y, cd mpt ngQdi ehiu trach nhiem cu thi.

• TS&DDdlGIOI'nlltDCBDTtllllGUB (MTRODUCTIOK A

Xac suat

O.M

0.70 0.50 0.30 0.10

Rui ro thudc loai i^uy ctf 0.05

0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.05

0.09 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.10

0.18 0.36_,

0.14 K K j ^

0.10 ^ ^ ^ 1

0.06 0.02 O.20

0.12 0.04 0.40

» ' _{K 3 6}

0.40 0 2 4

0.08 0.80

Rui ro thudc loai ctf hoi

0.72

0.56 0.40 0.24

0.08 0.80

0.36 0.28 0.20

0.12 0.04 0.40

0,18

0.14 0.10 0.06

0.09 0.07 F 0.05

'f f 0.03

0,02^ n ) , o i i 0.20 0.10

aM

°'^

^ ^

0.05

Hinh 2. Mdc dp rui ro phu thuoe vao xac suat xay ra va mQc do Inh hUdng [3]

Kiem soit rui ro la qui trinh thyc hiln d c ke hoach ddi phd rui ro, theo ddi de rui ro d l duoc nhin dang, theo doi de nji ro cdn du, nhin dang d c nji ro mdi, va dinh gil hilu qui cae qui trinh rui ro trong sudt dy In. Ngoai eie nlii ro duoc lap ke hoach ddi phd ngudi ta cung d n phli kiem soat sU xuat hiln eic rill ro mdi, sU thay ddi cua d c oil ro vl kilm soit ci cic riii ro hit han Vile kilm soit riii ro cung dupc thyc hi|n nhim danh gil xem d c gil thilt cho dy In cd cdn hop II trong qui trinh thuc hiln dQ in hay khdng, eie ehinh sleh vl thii tue quan ly riii ro cd duoc tuin thil va d c khoin du phdng v l chi phi va tien dd cd duoc d p nhat phu hap vdi kit qui dinh gil rui ro hay khdng

4. CAC C H I ^ LUQC Ddi PHd RlhROCOBAN

Trong qui trinh lip kl hoach ddi phd nji ro, nhimg ngQdi quan ly rui ro phli d n nhle lua chon eie ehiln iQoc ddi phd nji ro co bin d l tQ dd xay dung dc phQong in hanh dpng cho phii hop. Cac ehiln iQoe ddi phd rui ra co bin duoc chia thanh hai nhdm, cho cae riii ro thudc loai nguy eo va co hpi, moi nhdm diu cd 4 chiln luoc ca bin [3].

Cic chiln lupc ddi phd vdi eic rui ro thudc loai nguy co bao gdm: n l tranh (avoid), chuyen giao (transfer), giam nhe (mitigate) va chap nhin (accept), trong khi eic chien fupc cho d c nji ro thudc loai co hdi gdm ed khai thic (expioit), nlng cao (enhance), chia sl (share) v l chip nhin (accept)

a) Chiln lupc ne trinh dUpc thuc hiln thdng qua viec tim cich loai bd nguy eo do rill ro giy ra hole trinh khdi inh hudng ciia rui ra Vi du nhQ sQ dung d c CO sd dQ lieu, thdng tin ding tin eiy de lip dQ an nham trinh d c tinh toan sai lam trong bQdc lip dQ in hole dQng tnIn khai thuc hiln du In khi tinh hinh kinh te vi md khdng on dmh, lam phat Idn, gil cl tang nhanh Khi lap tiln do thi edng, ngudi ta cd the lap tien dd d l thi cdng phan ngam du In vao mua khd de tranh d c rui ro do mUa bao gay ra cho du an khi thi cdng hang muc nay b) Chiln luoc chuyin giao dUOc thuc hi|n thdng qua vile chuyen riii ro eho td chQc khie xQ ly, cung cd the thdng qua bao hilm, blo lanh thyc hiln...

Vi du nhu viee chii dau tu khdng tu minh thyc hiln dQ an ml thul d c td chQc chuyen nghiip thQc hiln d c ndi dung duln phu hpp Hay khi kiem soit nJi ro lien quan den nha thau xay lip, chu dau tu yeu d u nha thau xly lap

nop blo dim thuc hiln hop ddng cua mdt ngin hang hole td chQe tin dung nham chuyin giao eie riii ro chii quan (nha thiu ed tinh vi pham hop ddng) hole khach quan (nha thau vi pham hop ddng do d c nguyen nhin bat khi khing) liln quan din nha thiu cho ngan hing hoac td chQc tin dung.

Trong qui trinh thQc hien, nlu xuat hiln cic nJi ro nay, ngan hang hole td chQc tin dyng se phli chi tri nhifng thilt hai ml cic riii ro giy ra Viec quyltdinhehuylngiao ruiro cho bin ' naotrongviecthychienmdtdQindlutU xay dQng d n cin nhic mpt thQc t l II de benkhlcnhaucdkhinangquinlydcloai rui ro khie nhau W thi, can tuin thii eic ngu)«n tic sau khi phin bd eie rui ro cho de bin khac nhau uong vile riiuc hiln dy Ini2]:

- Rui ro nha thiu xQ ly tdt duoe chuyin ve nha thau, rui ro chii dau tQ xQ ly tdt ehuyin cho chu diu tQ ChCi dau tu

(INTRODUCTION AND EXCHANGE) TBAO Ddi, O di THBfU CHirneN NGANH I

khdng nin tim each chuyen mpi rui ro sang cho ddi tie trong thuc hiln dU an, ma can cin nhic ehuyen nhQng riil ro phii hop, neu khdng, cd d c nji ro nha thau khdng xQ ly duoc, chu dau tQ van phli dQng raxQIy.

- Phan thQdng cho riii ro dii eao cho nha thau de thQc hiln, theo yeu d u hpp ddng neu khdng, se khd tim kiem duoc nhi thau chap nhin rui ro, hole nha thiu trong qui trinh thuc hien sl tim each ddi hdi chii diu tQ bu dSp, giy phQc tap cho vile quln ly thuc hiln duin,

- Ap dit rui ro thap cho nha thau de gii chlo thap di tuong Qng' chii diu tu nin tQ minh dQng ra gInh chiu mdt sd riii ro ml minh cd the xQ ly duoc, de gilm chi phi cho dy In;

- Ap dit rill ro cho nha thau dya tren kha nang chiu riii ro ciia ho' tuong tu nhu nguyin tic thQ nhit. neu rui ro nha thau phii ginh ehiu vuot qui khi nlng chiu rui ro cua ho, sl Inh hudng den viec thQc hiln dQin va cudi eung, vln la chii dau tu phai dQng ra giai quyet.

c) Chiln lupc gilm nhe/gilm thilu duoc thQc hiln thdng qua cac biln phip dQOe tlln hanh d l gilm kha ning xuat hien hoac anh hQdng cua rui ro Vi du nhu viec lua chpn cic nha cung Qng cd uy tin, kinh nghiim, nlng lue tdt va tinh hinh tai chinh lanh manh sl Ilm gilm nguy co hing hoi bi cung Qng cham; khdng dim bio ve khdi luong, chat luong hole bi nhi cung Qng chilm dung tiln tam Qng hop ddng.

d) Chiln luoc chap nhin cd nghia la chap nhin cie riJi ro dii d c riii ro niy d l duoc nhin dang, da bilt chung cd the xly ra va cd the mang lai hau qui xau ho|c lOi ich, tuy nhien, khdng the sQ dung d c chiln iQoe khic de quln ly ho|c vile quln ly bing d c chiln iQOc khic khong mang lai hilu qui hon ve mit kinh te. Chiln luoc niy cd the duoc Ip dung cho ci d c rui ro thudc loai CO hdi va nguy eo. Tuy nhien, ddi vdi d c riii ro thudc loai nguy co, ngudi ta phin chiln luoc niy ra hai loai nhd, chip nhin chO ddng vl chap nhan bi ddng. Chu ddng II vi|c ihilt lap d c k l

hoach ddi phd vdi rui ro d l thue hiln khi riii ro xly ra va mQc dd riii ro la ding ke. cdn bi ddng la khdng lip kl hoach cho viec xQ ly d c nJi ro dd, chi dQa riii ro vao danh myc vl de cho tQ ddi dy i n xQ ly d c rui ro niy khi chung xiy ra Vi du nhu nha thau chap nhin ky kit hpp ddng theo hinh thQc hop ddng don gia cd dinh, cd nghTa la chap nhin chm nJi ro bj lo khi gia ci dau vao tang.

Vile chap nhin la bi dong khi nha thau khdng cd sQ chuan bi trudc nlu gil ca dau vao tang xiy ra trong thuc t l , nha thiu phii chap nhin mUe 16 niy khi nd xly ra. Vile chip nhin chu ddng la nha thau cd ke hoach dy phdng khi gil ca dau vao ting, vi du, dQng thi cdng mdt thdi gian chd gii ci ha xudng, nlu tiln do d u l n cho phep,..

d) Chiln luoc khai thac la mdt chiln lUOc ddi phd vdi d c riii ro thudc loai co hdi Chien IQOC niy dUOc sQ dyng khi ngudi ta mudn cO hdi hinh thanh. Chiln lUOc nay han che cie bat dmh ed lien quan d l dam bao co hdi chac chin xiy ra. Vi du nhu vile ngudi ta bd tri nhin luc cd chat luang tdt nhat de thuc hiln du an, hole sQdung cdng nghe tien tlln, dam blo chic chin dat duoe cic muc tieu cua duln. Hole khi cd khich hing hUa mua san pham bat ddng sin vdi dieu kiln du i n phii hoan thanh trudc mot thdi han nhat dinh nio do, chii dau tu chap nhin ehi phi thim cho nhi thau de ho day nhanh tien dd duln ml van dim blo chit luong sin pham, nham mue tllu tin dung cO hdi tieu thu sin pham bat dong sin cua du In, e) Chien luac nlng cao duoe thue hien nham ting kha nang xly ra cua CO hoi vl/hoac tang Inh hudng tich cue tQ CO hdi Vidu, khi d y l n kmh doanh bat ddng sin dang gip khd khin do thi trudng ddng bang, neu thi trudng dau ra ed dien biln Im lln. chu dau tu thuc hiln d e bien phap de day nhanh tien do thuc hien d y l n nhim sdm dUa san pham ra thi trudng, nang cao CO hdi dat duoc hllu qui cua duan f) Chien luoc chia se ca hdi 11 vile ldi keo them dan vi thQ ba vao viec thQc hiln d c hoat ddng, cho phep ho chia sl CO hdi cd tQ dy In. bdi sQ tham gia ciia ho cd t h i khiln khi nlng nim bit duoc CO hdi ting len, hole chinh ho II

don VI cd khi nang nim bit duoe ca hdi tdt nhat Vi du, vi|c tao ra d c hen danh d l dau thiu dQ an, hole lien doanh d l thQc hiln d c dy an dau tu xay dyng, hay vile d c nha dau tu cimg thanh lap mdt doanh nghiip du In de thuc hiln duln trong hinh thQc ddi tie cdng - tQ ehinh II d c trudng hop vln dung chien

• iQoe nay.

5. Ktr LUAN

Trong bai viet nay ctc tie gii de d p din mdt sd khai nilm v l riii ro, d c riii ra ciia du In, thii dp ddi vdi riii ro eiia I d c chu the trong dU In, d c qui trinh

quin 1^ rui ro va mpt so chien lupe ca ban ddi phd vdi riii ro du an. Siu qui trinh quln ly riii ro eCing vdi de chiln luoc ddi phd riii ro co ban duac xem xet ed the giup khdng chi chu dau tu ma d cle bin lien quan din du In khic quin ly riii ro du an chuyen nghiip vl hi|u qui hon Tuy nhiln, moi mpt dQ ar\ ludn cd nhQng die diem, tinh chit riing bilt khie nhau, tdn tai trong d c mdi trQdng khic nhau Do dd, d n phli cd su nghiin cQu vin dung eac qua trinh vl d c chiln luoc co ban ddi phd rill ro niy vao dieu kiln cu the cua tQng du an, de dam bao quln ly thyc hiln thanh edng d c dy In, giup d c du In j dat duoc d c myc tieu da dinh mdt

each cd hllu qui •

I—IHSBHS—I

[1] Nguyin Liin HUdng (2013), Bdi gidng mdn bgc qudn ly rui ro, DgihqcXdydiftig.

[2] Alberto De Marco (2011), Project management for facility constructions: A guide for engineers and architects. New York: Springer.

[3] PMBQK (2012), A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, Sth ed.. Project Management Institute.

[4] Nguyin The Qudn (2013), Bdi gidng mdn hgc Qudn ly dd dn ndng cao, Bd mdn Qudn 1^

dudn vd Phdp ludt, Bgi hgc Xdy ddng, Hd NpL