IJNG D U N G P H U O N G PHAP O A N H G I A T O N G HOP MCf
TRONG PHAN TfCH f)ANH GIA RUI RO CAC Dl/ AN PPP GIAO T H O N G TAI VIET NAM
Pham Hong Luan Ly Thanh Tung
ABSTRACT
To implement successfully construction projects, especially long and large scale projects such as transport infrastructure projects, risk management plays a very imsportant role. This study was conducted to identify risk factors affecting the Public - Private - Parnership Transport Projects in Vietnam, then use Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation (FSE) to analyze, assess risk level of individual risk factors and the Overall Risk Index of projects. Finally, propose preventive measures to improve project implementation.
TS Pham Hong Luan
Trudng dai hpc Bach Khoa TRHCM KSLy Thanh Timg
Phong Du an Dau tu - Cang Sai Gon Di dpng: 0906309270
Email: lttungbkvn(a)gmail.com
1. Gidi thieu
SU phat trien kinh te manh me cua Viet Nam, eung vdi tdc dp dd thj hda ngay cang nhanh da dat ra mdt nhu eau rat Idn ve co sd ha tang cho xa hpi.Trong khi dd, he thdng ca sd ha tang hien cd cdn han ehe. De giai quyet tinh trang tren, can mdt lupng vdn khdng Id trong khi ngudn vdn ngan sach nha nude cd gidi han, khdng dii kha nang dap Ung yeu eau.Theo Bp Ke hoach Dau tU, giai doan 2010- 2020, Viet Nam can khoang 160 ty USD cho phat trien ha tang trong khi ngudn ngan sach chi dap Ung dupc khoang 5%. Vi vay, keu gpi vdn tu nhan tham gia vao md hinh ddi tac cdng-tu (PPP) dupe xem nhu mdt giai phap rat trien vpng giup cung cap nhanh chdng cae edng trinh ha tang ea sd va djch vu edng edng, dac biet la ha tang giao thdng.
Theo thdng ke eua Ngan hang The gidi, trong giai doan 1994-2009, tai Viet Nam da cd 32 dUan dupc thuc hien theo md hinh PPP vdi tdng mUc vdn cam ket khoang 6.7 ti USD. Cung gidng nhu cac nudc khac, md hinh BOT va BOO chiem ty phan chii yeu (rieng trong linh vUe giao thdng thi hau het la BOT). Ve md hinh BOT, tdng cpng ed 26 du an vdi tdng mUe dau tu la 128.000 ty ddng [16]. Thanh edng nhat la du an do thj mdi Phu My Hung, thue hien theo each ket hop giUa BOT va ddi dat lay ha tang. Hau het eac duan cdn lai deu eho ket qua khdng nhu mong dpi. Dien hinh la hai du an: BOT eau Phu My va BOT eau- dudng Binh Trieu 2.
Cac du an ha tang giao thdng thudng cd tong mUe dau tU rat Idn, vdng ddi du an dai.
Trong sudt thdi han dd, cac nha dau tU tu nhan phai ddi mat vdi nhieu rui ro can xem xet: riii ro dau thau, rui ro dam phan, riii ro xay dUng, riii ro hoat dpng va rui ro tU CO che, chinh sach, phap luat,... Chinh viec khdng xem xet day du cac rui ro nay la mdt trong nhUng nguyen nhan ehinh dan den sUthat bai eiia cac duan neu tren. Viec nhan dang, phan tich, danh gia cac nhan td rui ro eua mdt dU an ha tang giao thdng xay dung theo phuang thUe PPP, neu dugc thUe hien day du va kjp thdi, se giup eac ben tham gia du an
dae biet la nha dau tuedeae bien phap Ung pho riii ro de viee thue hien du an hieu qua han. Bai vie't nay giup nhan dang cac nhan to rui roanh hudng den mdt duan giao thdng thuc hien theo phuong thUc PPR qua dd danh gia mUc dp riii ro tdng the cua dU an dUa tren phUOng phap danh gia tdng hop md.
2. Tong quan nghien cufu 2.1. Nghien cUu trUdc ddy Ve nhan dang rui ro
Cac rui ro du an PPP giao thdng cd 2 khia canh dac biet: trudc tien, chung cd cae rui ro qua trinh khdi dau (nghien cUu kha thi), cac riii ro qua trinh quan ly tai chinh va van hanh vi bin chat cua phuang thUe; thU hai, chung co cac riii ro ve ehinh trj, ehinh sach va kinh te vi thUcte chung la cae du an Idn [4]. Cac rui ro khdi dau ed the xem nhu cac rui ro thudc ve ban chat, npi tai cua du an.TrUdng hpp rui rove ehinh trj hoac chinh sach dUpc hieu la cac rui ro thudc ve khach quan. Grimsey va Lewis [5] da xac djnh dUpc sau vung rill ro lien quan den cac dU an PPP, cu the la: rill ro edng, riii ro tai san, rui ro van hanh, riii ro tai trp, riii ro tai ehinh va rui ro mac djnh.Y.Xuva cpng su [1] sif dung ky thuat Delphi nhan dang dupe 17 yeu td rui ro anh hUdng nhieu nhat den eac duan PPP dTrung Qudc tU37 yeu to riii ro thu duac tU mdt tdng quan ly thuyet toan dien.
Rill ro xuat hien trong vdng ddi duan, cu the qua cac giai doan chuan bj dU an (riii ro do chii truong dau tU sai lech, rui ro trong lUa chpn dia diem, hudng tuyen...) giai doan thuc hien duan (rui ro trong khao sat thiet ke, giai phong mat bang, rui ro trong lUa chpn nha thau,...) giai doan ket thue dU an (riii ro trong qua trinh khai thac).
theo [10] da xac dinh dupe 27 loai rui ro chinh anh hudng den dU an cdng trinh giao thong trong sd 66 loai rui ro dUpc nhan dang. ^L
Ve danh gia rui ro ^ Theo Sadoulla [4], danh gia rui ro dU ancS
sd ha tang, dac biet la d giai doan dau ciia dif an, phUc tap cho ca khu vuc tu nhan lan khu VUe edng vi ban chat cua cac riii ro thUdng bj anh hudng bdi rat nhieu yeu td bao gdm ci cac
SO^'^'f'W^'! 07.2011
Tong quan ly
thuyet
=>
• Nhan dang cac nhan t d rui ro cho cae d u an PPP giao t h d n gV
• Xac djnh eac rui ro quan trpng nhat tac ddng den hieu qua cac d u an PPP giao t h d n g tai Viet Nam;
• Xac djnh trpng sd eac nhan t d
V .
• Phan tich nhan t d ;
• Xep hang nhan t d ;
<=
i i Xay d u n g tap m d ;
Tinh toan ehi sd riii ro.
<=
V . Ke't luan Hinhl. Cau tnic nghien cu(u
Bang 1.Thdng tin t d n g quan ve nhdng ngudi tra Idi
2) Vj tri khi tham gia dU an
SPSS
FSE
3) Kinh nghiem tronq nqanh xay dUnq ciia nqUdi Loai
So lupng Ty le %
< 3 nam 6 8.70
3 - 5 nam 15 21.74
tra Idi 5 - 1 0 nam
29 42.03
> 10 nam 19 27.54
69 100 4) Kinh nghiem ve PPP cua nqUdi
Loai Sdlupng Ty le %
O d u a n 25 36.23
tra Idi 1 dUan
10 14.49
2 d u a n 12 17.39
> 2 d u a n 22 31.88
69 100 1) Khu vuc cdng tae eua nqUdi tra Idi
Loai Sdlupng Ty le %
Khu VUc cdng 38 55.07
Khu vUc t u 17 24.64
Khu vuehoc thuat 14 20.29
Tdng 69 100
Loai Sdlupng Ty le %
Nha thau 11 15.94
T u v a n 26 37.68
Chii dau t u 9 13.04
Q u a n l y N N 23 33.33
69 100
loi ciia eon ngudi, dU lieu va t h d n g tin san cd.
Trong nhieu trudng hpp, rat khd khan de danh gia cac rui ro lien quan den mdt dU an do dinh dang eiia sU khdng chae chan.Tuy nhien, nhieu ky thuat danh gia rui ro hien nay dupc sU d u n g trong eac d u an Idn tUPng ddi ky cang, n h u Phan tich Monte Carlo, Phan tich dp nhay, Phan tich Tac ddng va M d hinh That bai, Gia trj Tien te Mong mudn, Gia trj Hien tai thuan M o n g m u d n . Cay Quyet dinh, Ky thuat Xem xet va Chuong trinh Danh gia... Y. Yu va cdng s u [ 1 ] sCfdung ky thuat danh gia t d n g hpp m d (FSE) de danh gia mUc dp rill ro ciia eac d U a n PPP d T r u n g Qudc.
Ket qua cho thay "Su can thiep cua Chinh p h u "
la nhdm rui ro quan trpng nhat; "Rui ro Chinh
phu dao han"dUngthU hai,"Riii rokha nang eua nen Kinh te'"dUngthUba, "Riii ro Moi trudng Thj t r u d n g " dUng thU tU, "Riii ro Xay dung va Hoat d d n g " dUng thU nam, va "Riii ro kinh te vi md"
dUng cudi cung.
(iViet Nam, cac nghien cUu hau n h u c h i t a p trung nhan dang rui r o v a d e r a g i a i phap phdng ngUa, Ung phd chU khdng tap trung xay dung m d hinh danh gia rui ro de ed the dUa ra ke hoach Uu tien Ung phd eho tUng loai rui ro. Hon nUa cae nghien eUu nay cCing chua chi ra dupc rui ro dac thu eiia cae dU an giao thdng.
2.2. PhUdng phdp nghien cdu
Nghien eUu sif dung phuong phap phdng theo nghien cUu cua Y Xu va cdng sU [1], bao
gdm: tdng quan ly thuyet, khao sat bang cau hdi Delphi, phan tich nhan td, xep hang nhan t d va danh gia tdng hpp m d (FSE). Toan bd qui trinh nghien eUu dupc trinh bay trong hinh 1
Tdng quan ly thuyet
Thdng qua mdt sd nghien cUu da cdng bd, tac gia tdng hpp dupc 37 yeu td riii ro anh hudng den d u a n PPP ndi chung. Sau khi tham khao mpt sd ki su cd kinh nghiem cua Phdng Quan ly Giao thdng dudng bd - Sd GTVT TPHCM va cdng ty Cd phan Oau t u Ha tang Ky thuat TRHCM - CII, chi cac yeu t d phu hpp vdi linh vUc giao thdng duac g i u lai, cae ye'u to khdng phii hpp vdi linh vUc giao thdng hoac vdi dieu kien Viet Nam bi loai bd. Ket qua nhan dang dupc 28 yeu to riii ro anh hudng den hieu qua thue hien cae d u an ha tang giao thdng theo phuang thUe PPP tai Viet Nam.
Khao sat bang eau hdi Delphi
DU lieu phuc vu nghien cUu dupe thu thap chii yeu qua khao sat bang eau hdi dupe thie't ke dudi dang trac nghiem. NgUdi tra Idi dupc yeu cau danh dau vao phuang an ma hp cho la dung nhat theo thang Likert 5 diem. DU lieu thu thap thdng qua cam nhan cua ngudi tra Idi ve kha nang xay ra va mUc dp anh hudng cua tUng yeu td.
Ddi tupng la nhUng nha quan ly, chuyen gia va ky sU cd kinh nghiem, ed lien quan den eac d u a n PPP giao thdng da va dang thuc hien tai Viet Nam. Qua trinh thu thap dU lieu trai qua 2 vdng:
- Vdng khao sat thU nghiem, vdi sU tham gia ciia 20 chuyen gia, dUa tren bang cau hoi xay dung tU 28 yeu td thu dupc d budc tdng quan. Ket qua kiem djnh thang do loai 2 yeu td, cdn lai 26 yeu td, dUpc sU dung cho khao sat dai tra;
- Vong khao sat dai tra, vdi sU tham gia cua 120 chuyen gia (gdm ca 20 chuyen gia ke tren). Ket qua thu dupc 69 phan hdi (chiem ty le 57.5%). Mdt sd thdng tin chung ve nhung ngUdi tra Idi dupc trinh bay trong bang 1.
Phan tich nhan to
Theo [15], phan tich nhan td la ten chung ciia mdt nhdm cac thii tuc dUpc sU dung de thu thap va t d m tat dU lieu dudi dang mpt so it cac nhan td co ban. Md hinh phan tich nhan td dupc the hien bang phuang trinh sau vdi cac bien duac chuan hda:
i=i
^0
x F i i + V x U i
(1) Trong dd;
A : He sd hdi quy bdi chuan hda eua nhan t d dac trUng j doi vdi bien I;
F: Cae nhan to chung;
V: Cac he sd hdi quy chuan hda eua nhan to dac trUng j doi vdi bien i;
U: Nhan to dac trUng cua bien i;
n: So nhan to chung.
Ban than cae nhan td chung cung cd the
07.2011 B w n i i f i i 8 1
Bang 2. Xep hang cac nhan td rui ro anh hudng den dU an PPP giao thdng VN
STT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Yeu td rui ro
cham tre trong giai phong mat bang lam phat
bien dong gia
cham tre trong phe duyet va cap phep du an bien dong lai suat
thieu minh bach trong dau thau tham nhung bien dong ngoai hoi
he thong giam sat va phap luat khong day du rui rotai ehinh
phap luat thay doi can thiep chinh phu
cae thay doi du an thieu giam sat tai chinh du an
qui trinh ra quyet dinh kem thieu CO so ha tang ho tro
rui ro hoan thanh
hop dong xung dot hoac khong hoan chinh rui ro trong qua trinh van hanh/khai thac
thay doi qui dinh ve thue kha nang nhuong quyen rui ro trong moi quan he doi tac ky thuat ehua duoc kiem chung
dieu kien thoi tiet/dia ki thuat khong luong truoc duoc vat tu/lao dong khong eo san
thay doi trong nhu cau thi truong
Oiem trung binh Kha nang
xay ra 3.88 3.88 3.64 3.67 3.51 3.34 3.40 3.36 3.27 3.15 3.19 3.09 2.97 2.99 3.04 3.03 3.07 2.88 2.78 2.67 2.67 2.54 2.55 2.64 2.57 2.33
MUc dp anh hudng
3.92 3.74 3.68 3.55 3.62 3.29 3.20 3.18 3.26 3.37 3.29 3.34 3.29 3.26 3.14 3.14 3.08 3.26 2.75 2.82 2.77 2.85 2.83 2.68 2.66 2.66
Tac ddng 3.90 3.81 3.66 3.61 3.56 3.31 3.30 3.27 3.26 3.26 3.24 3.21 3.13 3.12 3.09 3.08 3.07 3.06 2.76 2.74 2.72 2.69 2.69 2.66 2.61 2.49
Xep hang 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Chuan hoa 1.00 0.94 0.83 0.79 0.76 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.55 0.54 0.53 0.51 2.97 2.99 0.43 0.42 0.42 0,41 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.00
Bang 3. He sd tai nhan td (Factor loading) cua cac yeu td len cae nhan Ky
hieu X8 X5 X3 X2 X4 XIO
XI XII X12
X9 X6 X7
Ye'u td
bien dong ngoai hoi bien dong lai suat bien dong gia lam phat
cham tre trong phe duyet va cap phep du an
rui rotai chinh
cham tre trong giai phong mat bang phap luat thay doi
can thiep chinh phu
he thong giam sat va phap luat khong daydu
thieu minh bach trong dau thau tham nhung
td ehinh Nhan td chinh 1
0.795 0.761 0.745 0.717
2
0.856 0.732 0.619
3
0.800 0.741 0.671
4
0.901 0.714 dugc dien ta nhu nhUng ke't hop tuyen tinh cua
cae bien guan sat.
^ = Z(WyxXj) ,2)
Trong dd:
W^: Quyen hay trpng sd nhan td k: Sd bien sd.
Trong nghien eUu nay, ky thuat phan tich nhan td, cu the la phan tich nhan td ehinh vdi phep xoay Varimax va phep chuan hda Kaiser dupc sU dung de nhdm cae yeu td riii ro cua cacdUan PPP giao thdng d Viet Nam thanh cac nhan td rui ro chinh. Phan tich nhan td chi dupc thuc hien ddi vdi cac yeu td quan trpng, nghia la cd tae ddng manh den dU an. Theo Y. Xu [1],
viec danh gia tac ddng cua mdt yeu to rui rocu the dugc tinh theo ket qua danh gia kha nang xay ra va mUc dp tae dpng cua nd, do do dUflc tinh nhusau:
Tac ddng = [(kha nang xay ra)*(mUe do inh
hUdng)]Ai/2 (3) Trudc khi tien hanh phan tich nhan to, mo
hinh se duac kiem tra sU phu hop bang kiem nghiem Bartlett vdi mUe y nghia 0.000 (Kiem djnh Bartlett vdi gia thuyet la khdng (HO) la "cac bien khdng tuong quan vdi nhau") va he so phii hpp ciia viec lay mau KMO (Sampling adequacy, Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin). Gia trj KMO thay ddi tUO den 1, cang gan 1 thi md hinh phan tich nhan to cang dang tin cay. Theo cac nghien cUu trUdc day, de cd the tien hanh phan tich nhan td, gia trj KMO nen cao hon ngudng chap nhan dupe la 0.5
Oanh gia tdng hpp md
Oay la mdt Ung dung eiia ly thuyet tap md, dupc sU dung trong nhieu linh vUc. Ni-BIn Chang va edng sU [6] dung de danh gia chat lupng nudc sdng d Oai Loan. V.K. Garg va cac edng sU [7] dung de phan tich chat lUpng nUdc ngam An Dp. Hay Xu va cac cpng sU [8] diing de phan phdi cac riii ro PPP gida khu vUe cong va khu vUc tu.
82|^^'1<^'>°^ 07.2011
Bang 4. Trpng so nhan t d
Rill ro
Rui r o k i n h t e v i m o bien d o n g ngoai hoi bien d o n g lai suat bien dong gia lam phat
Rui ro ve khd nang trien khai d U an
cham tre trong phe duyet va cap phep d u an rui r o t a i chinh
cham tre trong giai p h o n g mat bang Rui ro lien quan den phap ly
phap luat thay doi can thiep chinh phu
he t h o n g giam sat va phap luat khong day du Rui ro ve tinh minh bach
thieu minh bach trong dau thau tham nhung
Kha nang xay ra Mi
3.38 3.52 3.65 3.88 3.68 3.14 3.88 3.19 3.09 3.29 3.33 3.39
Y^M;
14.43
10.70
9.57
6.72
Trpng sd yeu t d
0.23 0.24 0.25 0.27 0.34 0.29 0.36 0.33 0.32 0.34 0.50 0.50
Trpng sd NT chinh 0.35
0.26
0.23
0.16
MUc do anh hudnq M|
3.20 3.62 3.71 3.77 3.51 3.36 3.94 3.33 3.33 3.28 3.26 3.19
^ M , 14.30
10.81
9.94
6.45
Trpng sd yeu td
0.22 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.32 0.31 0.36 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.51 0.49
Trpng sd NT ehinh
0.34
0.26
0.24
0.16
Bang 5. Ham thudc cac nhan t d rui ro chinh
Nhan to
Ruirokinh te vTmo bien dong ngoai hoi bien dong lai suat bien dong gia lam phat
Rui ro ve kh^ nang trien khai diTan
cham tre trong phe duyet va cap phep du an rui rotai chinh
cham tre trong giai p h o n g mat bang Rui ro lien quan den phap ly
phap luat thay doi can thiep ehinh phu
he thong giam sat va phap luat khong day du Rui ro ve tinh minh bach
thieu minh bach trong dau thau tham nhung
Kha nang xay ra Wi
0.23 0.24 0.25 0.27 0.34 0.29 0.36 0.33 0.32 0.34 0.50 0.50
Ham thudc
( 0 . 0 1 , 0 . 1 1 , 0 . 2 8 , 0 . 4 6 , 0 . 1 4 ) (0.00,0.19,0.33,0.39,0.09) (0.03,0.12,0.30,0.41,0.14) (0.02,0.07,0.30,0.46,0.15) (0.00,0.06,0.19,0.56,0.19)
( 0 . 0 1 , 0 . 1 4 , 0 . 3 3 , 0 . 2 9 , 0 . 2 3 ) (0.02,0.06, 0.36, 0.36,0.20) (0.03,0.26,0.39,0.17,0.15) (0.00,0.10,0.25,0.32,0.33)
(0.06, 0.19, 0.35, 0.30, 0.10) (0.10,0.15,0.33,0.30,0.12) (0.06, 0.20,0.38, 0.32, 0.04) (0.03,0.22,0.33,0.28,0.14)
(0.03, 0.19, 0.33,0.29, 0.16) (0.02,0.25,0.30,0.26,0.17) (0.04,0.13,0.36,0.32,0.15)
Wi
0.22 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.32 0.31 0.36 0.34 0.34 0.33 0.51 0.49
MUc dp anh hudng Ham thude
(0.04, 0.09,0.28, 0.43, 0.16) (0.07,0.16,0.36,0.31,0.10) (0.01,0.12,0.23,0.51,0.13) (0.04,0.04,0.26,0.47,0.19)
;0.01, 0.06, 0.29, 0.42,0.22) (0.02, 0.10, 0.34,0.32, 0.22) (0.04,0.06,0.43,0.28,0.19) (0.03,0.13,0.41,0.32,0.11) (0.00,0.10,0.20,0.50,0.35)
(0.06, 0.12,0.40, 0.28,0.14) (0.10,0.13,0.31,0.26,0.20)
;0.03,0.13, 0.43, 0.29, 0.12) (0.04,0.10,0.48,0.29,0.09)
(0.08, 0.18,0.34,0.25, 0.15)
;0.10, 0.10, 0.36, 0.31, 0.13)
;0.06, 0.25, 0.32, 0.20, 0.17)
Trong nghien cUu nay, FSE dupe sUdung de tinh toan Chi sd rui ro (RI) ciia mdt nhdm rui ro ehinh ndi rieng va Chi sd rui ro t d n g the (ORI) ciia cae d u an PPP. M d hinh danh gia t d n g hpp md ddi hdi 3 yeu t d co ban [8]:
- Mdt tap tieu chuan/nhan t d cO ban n = (f,, fj,..., f J ; vdi f la cae yeu t d riii ro can danh gia.
- Mdt tap cac cap lUa chpn E = {e,, e^,..., e^};
chJng han e, = rat thap; e^ = thap; e^ = vUa; e^ = eao; e^ = rat cao (cho ca xae xua't xay ra va mUe d o a n h hudng).
- Vdi mdt ddi t u p n g u eU, cd mdt ma tran Udc lupng R =(r\ .Trong mdi trudng md, r^ la mUc dp dap Ung tieu ehi f cua cac cap lUa chpn
e, duac dae trUng bdi ham thudc cua cap lUa chpn ej vdi mdi quan he den cae tieu ehi f.
Vdi ba eac yeu td tren, moi mpt eho trUdc, ed the thu dUpc ket qua Udc lUpng cua nd (theo hinh 2).
W R D = WxR
Oau vao Ma tran chuyen Oau ra ti'mh 2. Qui trinh danh gia tong hap md
Trong d d R la ma tran ehuyen thdng sd dau vao thanh thdng thanh thdng sd dau ra. Yelin Xu [8] de xuat 4 m d hinh eho R nhU sau:
M d hinh 1:
M ( A , v ) , b i = V ( \ ' 1=1 ^ M d h i n h 2 : _ M ( » , v ) , b j Md hinh 3:
M(«,ffl),bj = m i n Md hinh 4:
M(A,-i^),b,
Wi AT j ) v b j eB
V (wi A r i j ) v b j e B
I
m(4)
(5)
Wi X tu V b i e B (6)
y W i A r j j V b j e B (7) Md hinh 3 phu hpp khi nhieu tieu chi dUpc xem xet va sU khac biet ve trpng sd cua mdi tieu
07.2011 ewsiiEiisi 8 3
Bang 6. Chisd rui ro cac nhan td tac ddng den duan PPP giao thdng Viet Nam STT
Al A2 A3 A4 B
. , , . . 1 Kha nang Nhanto
xay ra rui ro Rill ro kinh te vimd
Rui ro ve kha nang trien khai duan Rui ro lien quan den phap ly Riii ro ve tinh minh bach Rui ro diT an PPP giao thong
3.62 3.60 3.19 3.36 3.47
1 1 MUe do anh ,.,, ., ,.
, ,' 1 Chi so rui ro huang
3.59 , 3.60 3.62
3.31 3.23
3.61 3.25 3.29 3.47 1 3.47 Bang 7. Giai phap giam thieu rui ro chinh
STT 1
2
3
STT 4
Rill ro ehinh Nguyen nhan Giai phap Phong ngifa Rui ro ve kha nang
trien khai du an (Rl = 3.61)
Riii rokinhtevimo (RI = 3.60)
Rui rove tinh minh bach
(RI = 3.29)
- Cham tre trong thii tue cap phep duan;
• Cac vUdng mac trong khau gicii phdng mat bang;
- Chu dau tu gap cac van de vetai chinh.
- Lam phat;
- Bien ddng gia;
- Bien ddng lai suat;
- Bien ddng ngoai hdi.
- Thieu minh bach trong dau thau;
- Tham nhOng
- Ve phia nha dau tu, can nam rd va thUc hien theo dung qui trinh, thu tuc ve xin phep duan;
- Ve mat quan ly nha nudc, can dan gian hda eac thu tuc hanh chinh lien quan;
- Ban hanh cae qui che hudng dan thuc hien tuong tu nhU qui che thi diem dau tu theo hinh thUc ddi tac cdng - tu (Q071 /QO - TTg);
- Giao trach nhiem GPMB va hoan thanh cac thii tuc giao, thue dat cho UBND cap tinh;
- Can than trpng trong bUdc danh gia nang lUc tai chinh cua nha dau tU khi dau thau. Xem xet thang diem hop ly eho tieu chi nang lUe tai ehinh. Cd the thue cac don vj tu van la eac td chUe tai chinh chuyen nghiep de tham dinh nang lUe tai ehlnh eua nha dau tu
- Giam phan tham gia tai ehinh eua nha nude (giam kha nang dan den np eong);
- Giam vdn vay thUPng mai (cd bao lanh chinh phu), tang vdn chu sd hUu ciia nha dau tu trong dUan.
- Keu gpi cae ddi tac tU nhan nudc ngoai ciing tham gia vaodUan.
- Can edng khai, minh bach trong qui hoach cac dU an Uu tien;
- Lua chpn nha dau tU tren co sd canh tranh, cdng bang, phu hpp vdi phap luat Viet Nam, theo tap quan va thdng le qudc te;
- Cdng khai minh bach trong cae thu tuc hanh ehinh.
Rui ro chinh Nguyen nhan Giai phap Phong ngiTa Rui ro lien quan den
phap ly (Rl = 3.25)
- Phap luat thay ddi;
- Su can thiep ciia chinh phu;
- He thdng giam sat va phap uat khdng day du
- Ve phia quan ly nha nude, can xay dung mdt khung phap ly day dii eho loai hinh hop tac cdng - tU;
- Tang cudng theo ddi giam sat viec thi hanh phap luat de kjp thdi xUly cac vudng mac cd the phat sinh trong qua trinh thuc hien.
- Khi mdi trudng cdsuthay ddi, can cd cache thay ddi kjp thdi, tranh chd dpi.
- Ve phia nha dau tU, can nam vUng cac quy djnh ciia phap luat lien quan den quan ly duan nhU: Luat, nghi dinh, thdng tU, van ban hudng dan...
ehi la khdng Idn. Tuy nhien, nd khdng phu hpp cho van de dan tieu chi, trong do chi cac tieu chi ehinh mdi dupe xem xet cdn cac tieu chi nhd khac bj bd qua. Md hinh 4 se thieu mpt sd thdng tin vdi trpng sd nhd hon. Vi vay, nd cho ket qua tuong t u n h u m d hinh 1 va 2 [1 ]. Theo dd, Yelin Xu de xuat sU dung md hinh 3 trong tinh toan ORI/RI ciia cae duan PPR
Chi sd riii ro tdng the ciia du an dupe tinh theo cdng thUc:
0RI;,=2^(WxRk)xL ,8)
l < = l
Trong dd:
W: trpng so ciia moi nhan to riii ro chinh;
R: bac ciia membership function ciia mdi nhan td rui ro chinh (ca xac suat riii ro va mUe dp riii ro);
L: bien ngdn ngU, vdi 1= rat thap; 2= thap;
3= vUa; 4= eao; 5= rat cao 3. Ket qua nghien cufu 3.1. Phdn tich nhdn to
Chuan hda gia trj tac ddng cua 26 ye'u td khao sat theo cdng thUC 3. Ket qua, 12 ye'u td rui rocdgia trj chuan hda > 0.5 (cdsdthUtUtUl —•
12 trong bang 2) dUpc diing lam bie'n phan tich nhan td. Ke't qua tren cho ty le bien/kich thude mau 12:69 < 1:5, thda dieu kien tien quyet eiia phan tich nhan td theo Bollen (1989). Ke't qua cac thif nghiem chUng minh sU phu hpp cua phan tich nhan td nhU sau:
- Kiem djnh Bartlett: gia tri tinh dupc la 306.539, cho thay ma tran tuang quan tdng the khdng phai la ma tran ddng nhat;
- Kiem nghiem KMO: gia tri tinh duac la 0.587 > 0.5
Phan tich nhan td chinh vdi phep xoay Varimax rut ra dUOc 4 nhan td ehinh sau 5 lan
lap lai, chiem 68.289% phUOng sai eac cau tra Idi, trong dd nhan td 1 giai thich 22.37%, nhan td 2 giai thich 17.23%, nhan td 3 giai thich 14.89% va nhan td 4 giai thieh 13.80%. Be xac dinh yeu td nao anh hUdng den nhan to chinh nao tac gia thdng qua he sd Factor loading ma phan mem SPSS xuat ra. Theo Hair &Ctg (1998), Factor loading la ehi tieu dam bao mUc y nghia thiet thue eiia phuang phap phan tich nhan to chinh. Trong nghien cUu nay, ehi nhUng yeu to cd Factor loading > 0.5 mdi dugc xem la co anh hudng len cac nhan td chinh (bang 3)
Tren co sd ket qua phan tich he so tai nhan td nhu trong bang 3, cac nhan td ehinh difOC dat ten nhusau:
- Nhan td 1: Riii ro kinh te vi md
- Nhan td 2: Rui ro trong ve kha nang trien khai duan
- Nhan td 3: Riii ro lien quan den phapl)^
8 4 » » n i i i s i 07.2011
- Nhan t d 4: Rui ro ve t i n h m i n h bach 3.2. Odnh gid tong hgp md Xae d j n h t r p n g sd nhan t d
Trpng sd 4 nhan t d ehinh dugc t i n h toan tU ket q u i danh gia eua cac ehuyen gia t r o n g khao sat bang cau hdi. Cu the, cae t r p n g sd nay dupc xac d i n h bdi (9)
Mi W :
I I
(9)
Trong d d M^ la gia trj t r u n g binh cua cac yeu to rui ro, cd dupc tU phan tich nhan t d . Ket qua dupe trinh bay t r o n g b i n g 4
Xae dinh ham thudc cho eac nhan t d (md hda) Xet yeu t d rui ro t h a m n h u n g . Cd 3/69 tra Idi danh gia kha nang xay ra rui ro nay la "rat t h a p "
chiem 4 % sd n g u d i tra Idi, 9 danh gia kha nang x i y ra la "thap", chiem 13%, 25 danh gia kha nang xay ra la " t r u n g binh", chiem 36%, 22 eho rang kha nang xay ra la "eao", chiem 32% va sd ngudi eho rang kha nang xay ra "rat eao" la 10, chiem 14%. Do d d , ham thude eiia t h a m n h u n g dupe bieu dien n h u s a u :
o 0.04 0.13 0.36 0.32 0.14 R 7 = — — - I - -I- -I- -I- -.
RT TB RC
0.04 0.13 0.36 0.32 0.14 1 2 ' ^ ^ ~ " ' ^ ~ 4 ~ ' ^ ~ 5 ~
(10)
Bieu thUe (10) cd t h e viet g p n d u d i dang (0.04,0.13,0.36,0.32,0.14)
Ham thudc eua cae nhan t d ehinh dupc t i n h toan bang m d hinh (6), chang han xay d u n g ham thupc m d ta kha nang xay ra cua nhan t d Rill ro kinh te v i m d :
- Ma tran t r p n g sd eua nhan t d :
W = [w,, w^, W3, w j = [0.23, 0.24, 0.25, 0.27]
- Ma tran d d t h u d c cua nhan t d :
rn
''21
rai / 4 1 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.00
'u
l'22
^32 '•42
0.19 0.12 0.07 0.06
•• I ' l s ' .. r25
•• 'iS
•• ' • 4 5 ^
0.33 0.30 0.30 0.19
0,39 0.41 0.46 0.56
0.09 0.14 0.15 0.19
Ham thude eua nhan t d Rui ro kinh te v i m d dupc xac dinh n h u s a u :
WxR =
0.23 0.00 0.19 0.33 0.39 0.09 0.24 0.03 0.12 0.30 0.41 0.14 0.25 *" 0.02 0.07 0.30 0.46 0.15 0.27 0.00 0.06 0.19 0.56 0.19
= (0.01 0.11 0.28 0.46 0.14)
Ket q u i ciia cac nhan t d cdn lai duac trinh bay trong b i n g 5
Tinh eac chi sd rui ro (giai md)
Chi sd riii ro t d n g the dUpc xac d j n h theo
bleu thUe (8), ket qua n h u bang 6 4. Ket luan
4.1. Ket luan
Nghien cUu da xac djnh dupe 12 nhan to riii ro ehinh anh hudng den eac d u an PPP giao t h d n g tai Viet Nam. Trong d d vdi chi so riii ro la 3.61, rui ro ve kha nang trien khai d u a n (Bao g d m cac yeu t d riii ro tai ehinh, cham tre trong phe duyet va cap phep d u a n , eham tre trong giai phdng mat bang) la nhan t d rui ro gay tae ddng manh nhat. Cae nhan t d riii ro kinh te vi md, riii ro ve tinh minh bach va rui ro lien quan den phap ly cd mUc dp tac ddng xep sau vdi chi sd rui ro lan lupt la 3.60, 3.29 va 3.25. Ket qua nghien cUu cung eho thay cae d u an PPP giao thdng tai Viet Nam cd mUc rui ro tdng the bang 3.47.
4.2. Oexudt
Nghien cUu de xuat mdt sd giai phap p h d n g ngUa ddi vdi cae rui ro da nhan dang n h u sau (bang 7):
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1. Yelin Xu, John FY. Yeung, Albert RC. Chan, Daniel W.M. Chan, Shou Qing Wang, Yongjian Ke, Developing a risk assessment model for PPP projects in China - A fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach. Automation in construction 19 (2010) 929-943.
2. Albert R C Chan, Patrick! I. Lam, Daniel W. M. Chan, M.ASCE, Esther Cheung, Yongjian Ke, Critical success factors for PPPs in infrastructure developments: Chinese perspective. Journal of Construction Engineering and managerment (2010) 484-494 3. M. Loosemore, J. Raftery, C. Reilly & D. Higgon (2006), Risk managerment in projects. London: Taylor & Francis
4. Sadoulla Ebrahimnejad, Seyed Meysam Mousavi, Hamed Seyrafianpour, Risk identification and assessment for Build- operate-tranfer projects: A fuzzy multi attribute decision making model. Expert Systems with Application 37 (2010) 575-586 5. Grimsey, D., SLewis, K. K. (2004). Public private partnerships.
Cheltman, UK: Edward Elgar
6. Ni-Bin Chang, H.W. Chen and S.K. Ning, Identification of river water guality using the Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation approach.
Journal of Environmental Managerment 63 (2001) 293-305 7. Dahiya S., Singh B., Gaur S., Garg V.K., Kushwaha H.S., Analysis of groundwater quality using Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation, Journal of Hazard Materials 147 (2007) 938-946
8. YL. Xu, A.RC. Chan, FY Yeung, Developing a fuzzy risk allocation model for PPP projects in China, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE 136 (8) (2010) 9. Hoang Le Oai Thanh, Phan tich-danh gia mirc do anh hifcing cua chinh sach va qui djnh hien hanh den tai chinh ciia du an dau tu theo hinh thifc BOT trong linh vifc giao thong, luan van cao hpc Cong nghe va quan ly Xay difng, 2009, Oai hoc Bach khoa TRHCM 10. Le Quan Phiic Nhan dang cac loai riii ro chinh trong duan xay difng cong trinh giao thong - Cac giai phap nham kiem soat va phong ngifa, luan van cao hpc Cong nghe va quan ly Xay dung, 2009, Oai hpc Bach khoa TRHCM
11. Asian Development Bank, Public-Private Partnership Handbook 12. Projea Management Institute (2004), A guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide) Third Edition, four Campus Boulevard, Newtown Square, PA 19073 - 3299 USA 13. Tran Thp Chau, Logic Toan, NXB Oai hpc Quoc gia Ha Npi 2005, Tr 166-204
14 B. Bouchon-Meunier, Ho Thuan-Oang Thanh Ha, Logic mdva ling dung, NXB Oai hoc Quoc gia Ha Npi 2007
15. Hoang Trpng, Chu Nguyen Mpng Ngpc, phan tich dif lieu nghien ciJiJ voi SPSS, tnfdng dai hpc Kinh te TRHCM, nha xuat ban Hong OiJc
16. Tong hpi Xay dung Viet Nam, Vien nghien ciilu do thj va ph^t trien ha tang, Tham van PPP: Kinh nghiem quoc te va thiic tien 4 Viet Nam, thang 05/2011
