Di^n bi^n lam phat nam 2010-2019 va giai phap ki^m soat lam phat giai doan 2020-2022 a Viet Nam
Nguy&i Thanh Cai Truong Dai hpc Binh Duong
Lam phdt la hidn tugng kinh td phd bidn cfla mgi qudc gia hong cdc giai doan phdt trien kinh td. Khi Itim phat d miic do vha phai, nd cd nhimg tac ddng tich cyc thiie day tang truong kinh td, nhung khi lam phdt d miic dp cao, nd tdc ddng xdu den hoat ddng sdn xudt, kinh doanh cua cac doanh nghidp, kim ham tang trudng kinh td va gay nhieu he luy ddn ddi sdng ciia ngudi dan. Bdng phuong phap thu tiiap du lif u dugc cdng bd, thdng ke, phan tich, lidn he, so s a n h . . . 6^ danh gia didn bidn va nguydn nhan lam phat thdi ky 2010-2019 o Viet Nam, hen CO sd do dd xudt mgt sd gidi phdp thidt thuc nham kiem sodt lam phdt trong giai doan 2020-2022.
1. Dien bien tinh hinh lam phat cua Viet Nam giai floan 2010-2019
Cudc khiing hodng tdi chinh Hdn td thd gidi todn cdu nam 2008-2009 da anh hudng Idn ddn ndn kinh te ciia Vidt Nam, vdn ddu tu nude ngoai bi dinh trd, tdng kim ngach xudt khdu hang hda bi gidm sut, sdn xudt hong nude gap nhidu khd khan, lai sudt va tj gia ngoai te gia tang, gia tri ddng ndi td giam, tang trudng kinh td GDP cham lai, lam phdt tang cao (lam phat nam 2008 tang ddn 22,97%). Sau cudc khiing hodng, Chinh phii Vidt Nam da thuc thi nhieu quydt sach nhdm ngan ehan suy giam kinh td, phue hdi va duy tri tang trudng kinh td trong bdi canh kinh te toan cdu suy giam. Dd khdi phyc cdc hoat ddng sdn xudt kinh doanh, kiem chd Igm phat, 6n dinh kinh td vi md, dam bao an sinh xa hoi, Chfnh phii Vi6t Nam da ap dung tridt de cdc bidn phap chu ydu sau day:
[i]. Thyc hidn chinh sach tidn td chat chd, thdn hgng, didu hanh ty gia, thi trudng ngoai hdi va cac cdng cu chinh sach tien td linh hoat, tap tmng uu tien vdn ti'n dyng phue vy phat tridn san xudt kinh doanh, ndng nghiep, ndng thdn, xudt khau, cdng nghidp hd hg, doanh nghidp nhd va vua...;
[ii]. Thyc hidn chinh sach tai khda thdt chat, cat gidm ddu tu cdng, gidm bdi chi ngan sdeh nha nude, tang thu ngan sdeh nha nude, tidt kiem chi thudng xuydn, gidm sat chat chd viec vay, trd ng nude ngodi.
[iii]. Ap dung cdc bien phdp kich cau dd thuc day san xudt nhu; Thuc hidn cac gdi kich cdu cua Chi'nh phu; hd tra lai sudt cho vay ciia Chinh phii; gia tang cdc khodn tin dyng uu dai; thuc hidn cdc chinh sdeh khuydn khich ddu tu sdn xudt trong nude; thu hiit manh me cdc ngudn vdn ddu tu nude ngodi;
[iv]. Thue hien chinh sdeh ma rdng ngoai thuong.
khuydn khich xudt khdu, kidm soat nhap khdu, kidm chd nhap sidu.
[v]. Tang cudng kiem soat thi trudng, gia ca, thue hi^n Id trinh didu hanh gid xang ddu, didn theo co chd thi trudng.
Nhd thyc thi cdc giai phap trdn, trong gicii doan 2010-2019, nen kinh te Viet nam da khdc phue duae nhiing khd khan sau khung hodng, GDP tang trudng 6n dinh, lam phdt dugc kim chd d miic vira phai, ndn tai chinh-tidn td qudc gia dugc dam bdo dn dinh.
HJnh l:Tags Irirome GDP va lam phat cna Viet Nam, 2010-2019 {%)
.i>.iJkk
m Tang tru-fi-ng GDP
Ngiion: Tong c\ic thong ke
Qua Hinh 1 cho thay, trong nhung nain 2010-2013, miic lam phat cao hon tang truong GDP, trong t h « ky nay, n^n kinh t^ van con chiu anh huong ciia cupc khiing hoang kinh te thi giai 2008-2009, mac dCi chinh phu da ap dung nhi^u bi6n phap ki^m chi lam phat nhu: tang lai suat tien giri va cho vay, that chat tin dung, cat giam cac khoan chi ngan sach chua that can thISt... Ben giai doan 2014-2019, cac chinh sach kiem che lam ph4t cua chinh phu da phat huy tac dung, iam phat da duoc kim che, giam xudng 6 muc viia ph^i tii 3-5%, rieng nam 2005 lam phat a muc th€p nhat ia 0,63
%. Trong giai doan 2014-2019, chinh sach tien te dugc noi long hon, lai suat huy dpng va cho vay tiing buoc duoc giam xuong dang ki, cilng voi do, chinh phu da ap dung nhieu chinh sach khuyen khich dau tu mo rang, phat trien san xuat, ap dung cic goi kich cau. .
67
NGHIEN ClAJ
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.nho vay tang hudng GDP da dugc phat tiidn va duy tii mai dem cdm cd chiing tai NHNN tiidng qua nghidp 6 niiic dn dinh hi 6-7%, Icim phat 6 miic tiidp hon tang vy thi hudng md hoae tdi cdp vdn, dieu nay Idm tang tiudng GDP, ndn kinh td da dugc phue hdi, ddi sdng cung tien, gay ap luc gia tang lam phat.
ngudi dan ngay cdng dugc dn dinh va cai thidn rd ret.
2. Nguyen nhan iam phat 6 Viet Nam giai floan 2010-2019
Trong Uieri ky 2010-2019 va giai doan tiuoc dd, vdn ddu tu xa hoi thudng d miie binh quan khodng 40 % GDP, viec gia tang vdn dau tu xa hdi da gdp phdn thiic ddy tang trudng GDP, ddng Uidi cung lam gia tang lam
^ Trong giai doan 2010-2019 cd nhidu nguydn nhan phdt hong ngdn ban. Trong tdng vdn ddu tu xa hdi, ddnddnlamphatdVietNam, nhin chung, cac nguydn vdn ddu tu cdng thudng chiem ddn hdn 50 %, tuy nhan chu ydu sau day da cd tac ddng Idn den lam nhidn liieu qud ddu tiJ lai thdp ban khu vuc tu nhSn va phat trong giai doan vua qua. khu vyc FDI, nhidu dy dn ddu tu cdng khdng dem lgi
[a]. Mdt can dd'i tidn hang, tang tmdng tin dyng va ^ ^ " ^^^ " h " ""°"g '*^-
miic cung tien M2 tang cao. [c]. Hidu qua dau tuxa hdi qua he s6 ICOR thdp.
Bi thiic day tang trudng kinh td, khuyen khich cdc doanh nghidp ddu tu md rdng san xudt kinh doanh, chinh phii da ap dung chinh sach tidn td ndi long, ha lai sudt cho vay, giam ty le du tra bdt budc ddi vdi cac ngan hang thuong mai, thue hien eac chinh sach tin dung uu dai cho san xudt de tang cung hang hda, tang eudng cho vay tieu diing de kich cdu, tieu thu hang hda.. . do dd da lam tang cung tidn iU2, lam mdt can
Nguyen nhSn tidm dn, sau xa ciia lam phdt Id hidu qua ddu tu xa hdi va nang sudt lao ddng xa hdi thdp.
Hieu qua sii dung vd'n dau tu xa hdi ndi chung dugc xem xet, danh gia qua hd sd ICOR. Hd sd ICOR cang cao thi hieu qua ddu tu xa hdi cang thdp, dd la mdt hong nhtrng nguyen nhan iam tang lam phat khi ddng vdn ddu tu bd ra qud cao ma thu ve san phdm qud thdp. Theo sd li^u ciia Tdng cyc Thd'ng ke, he sd ICOR ddi tidn hang, til dd gia tang miic lam phdt. Mdi quan ciia Viet Nam thdi ky 2005-2010 binh quan la 6,17, Uidi he Udn- hang thd hidn qua quan h$ giiia tang tnrdng
GDP, tang trudng tin dung va trudng cung Udn M2 thdi ky 2010-2019, the hien d Hinh 2 dudi day.
HJnh 2: Tang IriroTig GDP, tin dnng va cnng tien M2,2008- 2019 (%>
• GDP
• Tin dgng fflCungtiSnM2
Ngiion: Tong cue Thong Ice, Ngan liang Nha nirdc Hinh 2 cho thdy, miic tang tiirdng tin dung va mile tang cung tidn M2 thdi ky 2008-2018 ludn cao hon nhidu so vdi tang trudng GDP. Miic tang tin dung cao nhdt la 45,62% vao nam 2009, thdp nhdt la 6,07 % vao nam 2012, mirc tang binh quan hang nam Id 17,94 %. Miic tang eung Uen M2 cao nhdt la 33,3 %, vao nam 2009, thdp nhdt la 4,4 % vao nam 2013, muc tang binh quan hang nam la 17,34 %. Trong luc dd miic tang GDP cao nhdt la 7,08% vao nam 2018, tiidp nhdt Id 5,0% vao nam 2012, muc tang binh quan hang nam la 6,2%.
[b]. Tham hut ngan sach Idn, nhidu khoan chi ngan saeh nha nude hieu qua thdp.
ky 2010-2015 binh quan la 6,05, thdi ky 2015-2019 binh qudn la 5,97. Nhu vay, he sd ICOR ciia Viet Nam giai doan 2010-2019 Id kha thdp so vdi cac nude trong khu vuc (cd he sd ICOR la 3). Hd sd ICOR thdp Id mdt trong nhihig nguyen nhSn lam gia tang lam phat trong giai doan viia qua.
[d]. Nhap sidu tang cao trong nhieu nam.
Theo sd lieu cua Tdng cue Thdng ke, hong mdt thdi gian dai tir 2000-2011, cdn can thuong m?i cda Vidt Nam lien tyc nhap sieu, nam 2008 gia tri nhdp sidu len den 18 ty USD. Cac mat hdng nhap fdidu chu ydu la may mdc thiet bi, phu kien, phuong tien van tdi, nguyen vat lieu, nhidn lieu, xang ddu... Trong thdi ky qua, gid ca cac mat hang nhap khau cua Vidt Nam d thi tmdng tren thd gidi va trong khu vuc ludn bidn ddng tang da kdo Uieo gid nhap khdu tang, iam gia tang lam phat, tiic la nhap khdu lam phdt. Nhap sidu tang, dong nghia vdi viec phai tang cung Udn m$t ra dd mua ngoai td iam gia tang lugng tien hong luu thdng dan den lam phdt.
3. Giai phap kim soat iam phat trong giai Soan 2020-2022
B6 kiem soat tdt lam phdt, Uiuc day trudng kinh te, dam bdo an sinh xa hdi, thidt tudng trong thai gian Theo sd lieu cua Tdng cyc ttid'ng kd, tham hut ngan ddn Vidt Nam cdn thuc hien mdt sd giai phap sau:
sdeh Nha nude trong thdi ky 2010-2019 d miic binh quan 5 % so vdi GDP, dd bh ddp thidu hut ngan sach, Nhd nude da vay ng bang phuong thuc phdt hanh edc loai Tin phieu Kho bac, Trai phieu Chinh phii, Trai phieu cdng trinh. .. Lugng tin phidu, trdi phidu nay cd the dugc mua bdi ngdn hang Nha nude (NHNN) hoae cdc ngdn hang Thirong mai, sau dd ngan hdng Thuong
6B
[a]. Kiem sodt lam phat phai dat trong mdi quan hd vdi tang tiirdng kinh td va cac yeu td kinh te vT md khdc.
Thuc hien cac chinh sach khuyen khich phue hdi sdn xudt kinh doanh nhu: giam lai sudt cho vay; tang cung tin dung, ndi long cdc didu ki^n cho vay; khoanh no, gian ng; mien giam thud; midn gidm tidn thue ddt, thyc hidn cac gdi kich eau, ctm trg xa hdi ciia Chinh
phil tit ngan sach nha nude. Cdc chfnh sach hdn sd Uiiic ddy tang trudng GDP, nhung cd thd Idm gia tang Igm phat d mdt ehimg mye nhdt dinh. Vi vay, can kidm sodt lam phat dat trong mdi quan he vdi tang tiudng kinh td va cac ydu td kinh td vl md khac nhu:
thdt nghidp, boi chi ngan sach, tj' gia, cdn c&i thanh todn. Trong md'i tuang quan ndi hen, cdn duy tri miic ty Id Igm phat Uidp hon ty le tang trudng GDP va Uidp han ty le tang ty gia ngoai td manh. Ciing vdi dd, duy tri miic bgi chi ngan sach dudi 4% GDP, giam thidu ty le thdt nghidp va chdp nhan nhap sidu vdi ty Id khdng qua 10%.
[b]. Thuc hidn cdc chuang trinh tin dung uu ddi, lai sudt thdp, ndi Idng didu kien cho vay.
Cdc chuang trinh ti'n dung uu dai cdn tap tmng vao cdc ngdnh san xudt ndng lam, ngu nghidp, cdng nghiep ehd bien, san xuat va gia cdng hdng xudt khau, cdc ngdnh dich vu thidt ydu cd khd nang hdi phyc sdm sau mgt thdi gian ^ n h he do dnh hudng dich bdnh Covid-19. Tinh chdt uu dai ciia cac chuong trinh tin dyng dugc xac dinh qua thai gian cho vay dai, hdn 1 nam; lai sudt thdp hon tin dyng thdng thudng ciing ky hgn; hgn miic cho vay phti hgp vdi nhu cdu ddu tu;
didu kien cho vay dugc ndi long, cd thd dugc vay tin chdp vdi mdt ban mirc cad hon thdng thudng. Ddi tugng dugc ddu tu Id hd gia dinh, cdc doanh nghidp viia vd nhd, til thanh thi den ndng thdn, cd kha nang gidi quyet cdng an, vide iam cho ddng ddo ngudi lao ddng. Ddng tiidi vdi viec thuc hien tinh dyng uu dai, can thdt chat vd han chd cho vay ddi vdi ddu co bdt ddng sdn, ddu ca ddt nen, kinh doanh chiing khodn va cho vay tidu dung.
[cj. Quan ly ngan sach nha nude mdt cdeh chat che, khai thdc tdt cde ngudn thu, edt gidm chi.
De gidm dan tham hut ngan sdeh, Nhd nude can tang cudng cac bidn phap nham khai thac hidt dd cac ngudn thu ngan sdeh theo luat dinh. Tang thu thud danh vdo vide ddu co bdt ddng san va ddt ndn hoang hda (ngan ngira va chdng cac con sdt gid bat dgng sdn), ddnh vao cdc loai hdng hda xa xi phdm va dich vy cao cdp; Thuc hidn cdc bidn phap chdng that thu, gian Idn thuong mai, trdn thud, ehuydn gia.. .nhdm gia tang ngudn thu ngan sach. Ddng thdi, edt giam cac khoan chi ngan sach hieu qud thdp, nhiing khodn chi chua thdt can thidt, siet chat ky cuong vd ky ludt trong vide qudn ly ngan sach. Chi nen bdi chi ngan sach dd ddu tu cho cdc cdng trinh, dy dn ddu tu cdng, vao nhung linh vuc dem lai lgi ich Idn cho cd nen kinh te, nhung tu nhan khdng cd ddng cd dd 1dm hoae lam khdng cd hieu qua; vao cdc ngdnh cd siic lan tda, thiic ddy phdt tridn kinh td-xa hdi, an ninh qudc phdng, giai quydt cdng an viec lam vd nang cao ddi sdng cho ngudi ddn.
[dl. Tang cudng qudn ly, kidm soat thj trudng va gia ca.
Tang cudng cdc bien phdp chdng edu kdt thi
hudng dd ndng gid hang hda, long docin thi trudng vi lgi ich nhdm; Chdng dau ca, tich tru hang hda, tao su khan hidm gia tgo dd nang gia; Xii ly kip thdi nhung cii sdc tang gid ddt bidn tii bdn hong va bdn ngoai qudc gia, iam rdi loai thi trudng; Thuc hien cac chinh sach chdng ddu co trich trO ngoai td manh, cd bidn phdp can tWdp kip thdi de ngan ngua ty gia ngoai td gia tang; Ap dung chinh sdeh didu hdnh ty gia linh hoat giua ddng ngi te vdi ddng ngoai te theo hudng cd Igi cho san xudt trong nude va xudt khdu.
[el. Tang cudng cdng tac tmyen thdng, ban chd tdc dgng cila l^m phat ky vong do tam ly ddm ddng.
0 Vidt Nam tdm ly ddm ddng cd anh hudng rdt Idn den hanh ddng ciia ngudi dan. Dan chiing thudng cd dn tugng vd lam phat trong qua khir, nhay cdm vd ky vgng vd lam phdt trong tuong lai. Ndu tai thdi didm nao dd cd tin ddn that thidt cho rdng, VND se tidp tuc mdt gid thi ngudi dan se nit bdt tien tidt kiem de mua vang, ngoai td, trich tni cdc loai tai san khac ho^c mua nJiidu hang hda hon, lam cho gia cd gia tang. Vi vay, ciing vdi nhimg hanh ddng thidt thuc, nhd nude edn tang cudng cdng tdc tuydn tmydn dd ngudi ddn hidu rd, ydn tdm, tin tudng vad cac chi'nh sach ciia Chinh phu, ban chd tdc ddng cua lam phat ky vgng do tam ly dam ddng.
4. Ket luan
Trong quan ly, didu hanh kinh td vi md, rdt khd dat dugc ca ba mue tidu ciing mdt liic: kinh td tang trudng cao, lam phat va that nghidp thdp. Mudn dat dugc tang trudng on dinh, that nghidp thdp, thudng phdi chdp nhan mgt ty Id lam phdt nhdt dinh. Do do, dd dat muc Udu tang trudng va giam ty Id thdt nghiep nhu ky vgng, thiet tudng Nhd nude cdn thuc hidn ddng bd cdc chinh sach vd bien phdp neu tren, nhdm Iddm sodt, ban chd Iam phat d miic dd cd Igi cho nen kinh td./.
Tai iieu tham lihao
Nghi quydt 11/NQ-CP ngdy 24/2/2011, "Ve nhQng giai phdp chu yeu tap tmng kidm chd lam phdt, dn dinh kinh td vi md, bdo dam an sinh xa hgi".
"Lam phat vd lam phdt ky vgng", Bao cdo thudng nidn thi trudng tdi chinh 2016, Dai hgc Luat Ha Ndi.
Nguydn Vidt Lgi (2016), "Phdi hgp ehinh sach tdi khda va chinh sdeh tien te d Viet Nam giai doan 2011- 2015 vd gidi phap den nam 2020", Tap chi Ngan hang sd 3-1-4 thdng 2/2016,
H A U A • THAI I
