PHAN TfCH TANG TRUdNG VA TH! PHAN SO LUONG KHACH DU UCH QUOC TE T 6 | DONG NAM A THCJl GIAN 1990 2011
MAI DUY LVC*
D|lt v a n d e
Cdc nfldc Ddng Nam A (DNA) cd tdi nguydn du lich da dang, phong phu vd dOc ddo nen da trd t h a n h mpt trong nhflng ndi thu hut quan trpng nhfi't cua khdch du lich qud'c td' Mpn nay. Tfl nhOftig ndm 1990 tdi nay, hoat ddng du lieh da gdp phfin quan trong vdo qua trinh chuyin dich cd eau Mnh t l cua eac nfldc vdi vi tri ngdy cdng quan trpng trong ctf cfi'u GDP, tao thdm cdng dn viec ldm vd thu nhfip cho ngfldi lao ddng. Theo Nidn giam thdng ke nfim 2007 eua Uy ban Kinh te - Xa hdi chdu A - Thfii Binh Dfltfng (United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific - ESCAP), doanh thu du lich ndm 2005 cMd'm 13,56%GDP tai Cdmpuchia, Malabda Id 6,53%, Sinhgapo lfi 4,92%, Ddng Timo Id 5,74%, Lfio Id 5,12%
(ESCAP 2007, t r 151) t^l
Trong thdi gian tren, khdng chi rieng cdc nfldc DNA cd sfl tfing trfldng du lich nhanh chdng md cdc nfldc Ddng Bfic A (DBA), chfiu Dai Dfldng (CDD) vfi Nam A
(NA) cung cd sfl phdt trien du hch manh me. Sufit trong 20 ndm, du lich Chau A - Thdi Binh Dfltfng (CA-TBD) dd trd thdnh dOng Iflc tfing trfldng cua du lieh the gidi.
Vfin d l ddt r a lfi: t d n g trfldng so' Ifldng khdch du lich cdc nfldc DNA Id nhfl t h l ndo trong tfldng quan tdng trfldng du lich the gidi vd khu vfle CA-TBD? Nhflng nhfin to ndo a n h hfldng tdi td'c dp tdng trfldng sd' Ifldng khdch qud'c t l ' cua tilu vung ndy? Thi p h a n khdch qud'c td' cua khu vflc DNA thay doi nhfl thd' ndo so vdi the gidi vd so vdi khu vfle CA-TBD trong thdi gian 1990 - 2011?
Ndm 2009, nhflhg ngfldi duhg dau ctf quan du lieh cua cdc qud'c gia DNA dd to chfle Dien ddn du lich ASEAN (ASEAN Tourism Forum- ATF) nhfim hoach dinh CMe'n Ifldc phdt trien du lieh ASEAN tdi nfim 2015 trong Id t r i n h xay dflhg Cdng d i n g ASEAN nfim 2015. Do dd, vide vide ddnh gid tdng trudng, thi phfin vd sfl thay dli thi phan so Ifltfng khaeh du lieh qud'c t l tdi cdc nfldc Ddng Nam A so vdi the gidi Id rfi't can tMd't.
* Ths. Mai Duy Lue, Khoa KHXH, Tnfdng Dai hoe Hlng Ddc
Mai Duy Luc - Phdn tich tdng trudng vd thj phdn sS'luong khdch du lich... 85 1. C h i s ^ t a n g trufcfng v a t6^c dO tfing
trifdrng h a n g n a m
So' lidu thd'ng ke cho thfiy nfim 2011 tieu vung DNA tiep ddn 77,2 tridu Ifldt khdch so vdi 21,1 tridu Ifldt khdch ndm 1990. (Xem bang 1).
CM so tang trfldng dinh gd'e cua tieu vung DNA dat 3,659 lfin so vdi 3,891 lfin cua khu vflc CA-TBD vd 2,257 1 ^ cua todn
t h l gidi. Trong khu vflc CA-TBD, cM so tdng trfldng cua tieu khu vfle DNA Id thfip hdh so vdi tilu vung DBA (4,403 lan) vd tieu vung NA (3,875 lfin) nhflhg lai cao hdn so vdi tieu vung CDD (2,25 lan).
Trong ehuSi s i Udu 17 nfim cd tdi 9 ndm cM sd' tdng trfldng dinh gd'e cua tilu vung DNA Id thd'p htfn binh qufin cua khu vflc vd cd 8 ndm cd mflc tdng dinh gd'e cao hdn
B a n g 1. Sd' lit^ng k h a c h t r d n thd' gidi, k h u vrfc C h a u A - Thdi Binh Drfrfng
va nhCTng tie'u v u n g
(Ddn vi tinh; Trigu ngfldi) Nam
1990(a) 1995Ca) 1996(b) 1997(b) 1998(e) 1999(e) 2000(a) 2001(g) 2002(g) 2003(g) 2004(g) 2005(a) 2006(d) 2007(d) 2008(a) 2009(a) 2010(a) 2011(c)
TG 436,0 628,0 575,0 698,6 626,5 650,4 675,0 688,0 707,0 697,0 766,0 798,0 846,4 894,0 917,0 882,0 940,0 982,0
CATBD 55,8 82,0 90,4 89,7 93,2 103,4 110,1 116,6 126,9 114,1 145,5 153,6 166,0 182,0 184,1 180,9 203,8 217,1
DBA 26,3 41,3
50,7 56,2 58,3 61,0 68,2 61,7 79,4 85,9 94,0 101,0 100,9 98,0 111,6 115,8
SNA 21,1 28,4 31,8(1) 31,3(1) 29,0 33,6 36,1 40,7 42,8 37,0 48,3 48,5 52,8 69,7 61,8 62,1 69,6 77,2
CDD 5,2 8,1
8,3 8,9 9,6 9,1 9,1 9,0 10,2 11,0 10,2 11,2 11,1 10,9 11,6 11,7
NA 3,2 4,2
5,2 5,8 6,1 5,8 5,8 6,4 7,6 8,1 9,0 10,1 10,3 9,9 11,1 12,4 Source: a) UNWTO Tourrism Higlights 2011 '
2006 ™' c) UNWTO WT Barometer 2012 "".
: (b) UNWTO: Tourism Market Trends, d) UNWTO WT Barometer 2010 ' : e) UNWTO: ITA 2001 "".
cho phu hgp)
g) UNWTO: ITA 2006 "", (1) K.S Chon 2000 "" (eo diiu ehinh
86 NghiSn giu Ddng Nam A 912012
B i n g 2. Chi stf tfing t n / d n g djnh gSc (nfim 1990 = 1,0 iSn) Nam
1990 1996 2000 2005 2011
The' gidi 1,000 1,214 1,662 1,834 2,257
A-TBD 1,000 1,470 1,973 2,763 3,891
DBA 1,000 1,670 2,217 3,266 4,403
DNA 1,000 1,346 1,711 2,299 3,659
CDD 1,000 1,568 1,846 2,115 2,250
NA 1,000 1,313 1,906 2,631 3,876 Nguin: Tinh toin tCl ad liiu Bing 1
Bang 3. Toe dp tfing trUdng binh qufin giai do»n vfi hfing nfim (Bern vi tinh: %/nam) Nam
1990-96 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Blnh quan
TG 4,28 8,90 4,10 4,66 3,81 3,78 1,93 2,76 -1,41 9,90 4,18 6,07 5,62 2,57 -3,82 6,58 4,47 4,27
CA-TBD 9,39 10,24 -0,77 3,90 10,94 6,48 5,90 7,98 -9,37 27,62 5,57 8,07 9,64 1,16 -1,74 12,66 6,63 6,66
DBA 11,41 11,4 11,4 11,4 8,88 5,62 4,63 11,80 -9,63 28,69 8,19 9,43 7,45 -0,10 -2,87 13,78 3,86 7,96
DNA 6,92 11,97 -1,67 -7,35 15,52 7,76 12,74 6,16 -13,55 30,54 0,41 8,87 13,07 3,62 0,49 12,08 10,92 6,91
CDD 11,15
1,20 1,20 1,20 7,23 7,87 -5,21 0,00 -1,10 13,33 7,84 -7,27 9,80 -0,89 -1,80 6,42 0,86 3,05
NA 6,25 11,9 11,9 11,9 11,64 6,17 -4,92 0,00 10,34 18,76 6,68 11,11 12,22 1,98 -3,88 12,12 11,71 7,92 NguSn: Tinh todn tU sd' li^u Bdng 1.
Mai Duy L^c - Phdn tich tdng trudng va thi phdn soiling khdch du lich.. 87
H i n h 1. B i ^ u d o t o e dp tfing trtfcFng b i n h qufin giai d o f n 1990 - 1993 va cac nfim 1996- 2011
T&a&tang truing sS luclng khdch hdng nam [%lmm)
2 1 _ ^ / \ -A y^' *^ ^
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^j E< / ^^KJ^ N:
- —•—ThigiCfi —•—A-TBD DBA - • — e W A ^ K - C B D — • — N A ' NguSn sd liiu xdy dung: so liiu Bdng 3.
mflc chung la cfic thdi dilm nfim 1996, 1999 -2001, 2003, 2008 - 2009 vd 2011.
(Xem them bang 2).
Tinh chung trong ed thdi 1 ^ 1990 - 2011, td'c do tang trfldng binh quan cua tilu khu vflc DNA dat 6,91%/ndm so vdi mdc chung cua tofin t h l gidi Id 4,27%/ndm, cao hdn so vdi khu vflc CA-TBD (6,66%/ndm). Trong so' 4 tilu vflng trong khu vflc CA-TBD, t i c dd tdng trfldng binh qufin cua tieu vung DNA eao hdh tilu vung CDD (3,05%/iiam nhflhg thfip hdn cdc tilu vung DBA (7,96%/nfim), vfi tilu vung NA (7.92%/ndm). (Xem Bang 3)
Bilu d l td'c do tdng trfldng hfing ndm cua tieu viing DNA cd ddc diem noi bat:
cd mdt chu ky tang trfldng vd giam sut ve so Ifltfng khfich:
Chu ky 1990-2000 (10 ndm): eao nhfit ndm 1999 (15,5%), thd'p nhfi't nfim 1998 (-7,3%);
Chu kJ' 2001 - 2005 (5 nfim): cao nhfift ndm 2004 (30,5%), thap nhd't 2003 (-13,6%);
Chu kjr (2006 - 2011) (5 ndm): cao nhfi't 2007 (13,1%) vd thap nhd't Id 2009 (-1,8%) Chu ky tdng trfldng s i Ifldng khdch du lieh phan dnh nhflng tdc ddng cua mdi trfldng phdt trien du lieh tai tilu vung DNA. Nd'u nhfl ndm 1999 cd dfltfc td'c dg tfing trfldng rat cao ve so Ifltfng khdch du lich Id do cd sut giam dot ngdt cua s i Ifldng khdch du lich qud'e te' vdo ndm 1998 lien
Nghien cvtu Ddng Nam A 9/2012
B d n g 4. T h i p h d n ciia c d c t i ^ u viing so vdi thd' gidi va k h u vi^c CA-TBD (Ddn vi tinh: %.' Nam
1990 1995 2000 2006 2009 2010 2011
TG 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
CATBD 12,83 15,53 16,31 19,26 20,61 21,68 22,11
DBA 6,06 7,82 8,64 10,76 11,11 11,86 11,79
DNA 4,86 5,38 6,35 6,08 7,04 7,40 7,86
CATBD 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
DBA 47,13 50,37 62,95 56,92 64,81 64,71 63,34
DNA 37,81 34,63 32,79 31,58 33,67 34,16 36,66
CDD 9,32 9,88 8,72 7,16 6,03 5,69 5,39
NA 6,73 5,12 6,64 6,27 5,69 6,46 5,71 NguSn: Tinh toin tic s6 liiu Bing 1
quan tdi cupc khung hoang tfii chinh diln tai nliilu nildc DNA. (Xem liinh 1)
Sir sut giam so lutfng khdch nfim 2003 lien quan tdi dich cum gia c i m H5N1 da xay ra tren diSn r6ng. NSm 2004, sau khi benh dich da dUdc chg' ngu s6' lUdng Ididch tSng len n h a n h chong trong khu viTc CA- TBD cung nhi^ t r e n pham vi toan thS' gidi.
Su kien sdng t h a n xay r a ngfiy 26/4/2004 tai An Do Difdng khSng a n h hudng tdi s6' lUdng khach n a m 2004 mfi chi a n h hudng tdi so lugng khfich tdi tieu vung DNA nfim sau: nam 2005 tfing tnrSng chi cbn 0,4%
trong khi khu vuc DBA tfing 8,2% vfi CDD tfing 7,8%. Su thi^t hai qufi ldn ve tfii san vfi ngudi tai Thfii Lan, Indonexia da lfim cho khfich tdi tieu vung khfic an tofin hon.
Su sut giam toe do tfing tnidng nfim 2009 lien quan tdi cupc khung hoang tfii chinh diSn ra tr&n pham vi tofin the gidi.
DiSm dfing chu y nhfft l i dCi vdi mile tfing s6' Iitang khfich quoc te chi lfi 0,5% nhung tieu viing DNA la duy nha't trong bang c6 tfing tnidng duong, nhOng khu vifc khfic deu CO miJc tfing trudng am: Tofin the gidi - 3,8%, khu VUc CATBD -1,7% , tieu viing
DBA -2,9%, tieu vimg CDD-1,8% vfi tilu viing NA tha'p nhfi't vdi -3,9%.
2. Thi p h a n v a s ^ t h a y d o i thi p h S n Tr§n pham vi tofin the gidi, nfim 1990 tilu vimg DNA chiem 4,95% thi phan khfich quoc t l thi tdi nfim 2011 tieu vCmg nfiy dfi chiem 7,86%. NhQng s6' U^u tUdng ling cho tofin khu vitc CA-TBD lfi 12,83%
vfi 22,11%; tilu viing DBA lfi 6,05% vfi 11,79%; t i l u vimg CDD lfi 1,20% vfi 1,19%;
tilu viing NA lfi 0,74% vfi 1,26%. (Xem them bang 3).
Trong pham vi khu vifc CA-TBD, thi p h ^ khfich quoc te cua tilu viing DNA co sir thay dli dfing k l . Nfim 1990 tilu vimg nfiy chi mdi chiem 37,81% so Itrpng khach cua khu virc CA-TBD, tdi nfim 2011 dfi giam cbn 35,56%. Nhitog so lieu trong tUdng iJtig cho tieu vimg DBA 14 47,13%, 63,34%; tilu vung CDD lfi 9,32%, 5,39% vfi tilu viing NA lfi 5,73%, 5,71%. NhU v^y trong suit thdi gian 1990 - 2012, tilu vung DNA tilp tuc k h i n g dinh vi tri thil 2 ve so liidng khfich quoc te xe'p sau tilu vung DBA.
Mai Duy Luc - Phdn tich tdng trudng vd thi phdn sd luang khdch du Ijch... 89 K e t lu^n
Tdng trfldng s i Ifldng vd thi phfin khfich quoc t l tdi DNA tren t h l gidi dfi tdng nhanh trong thdi gian 1990 - 2011.Tieu vung DNA cung vdi tieu vdng DBA dfi tid thdnh ndi phdt trien du lich ndng dong nhfit cua thd' gidi.
Trong thdi gian 1990 2011, tdng trfldng s i lfldng khfich qud'c te' tdi DNA theo nhuhg ehu ky 10 nfim hodc chu ky 5- 6 ndm. Mli chu Iqr cd thdi dilm tdng trfldng rfi't eao, th^m ehi trdn 10 %/nfim, cd thdi dilm suy giam chi edn td'c dfi dd -2- 3%/ndm. Nhflng nhfin td' a n h hfldng tdi td'c dd tdng trfldng so Ifldng khdch DNA lfi khung hofing tdi chinh, dich benh, thidn tai, nhflng bid'n ddng thdi sfl chinh tri tai cdc qud'c gia....
Cung trong thdi gian ndi trdn, thi phfin khdch qule te tdi DNA trong khu vflc CA- TBD dfi giam tfl 37,81% xud'ng cdn 35,56%./.
TAI LIEU THAM K H A O
1. Amrik Singh (1997): Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research email:
anirik.sin^@health,utah.edu ).
2. K.S Chon (2000): Tourism m Soutteast Asia: A new direction, The Haworth Hospitality Press. An Imprint of the Haworth Press, Inc. Neww Yorrk, London, Oxford (177p)
3. Walton, J.; Hitchcock, M.; King, V. T.;
Paxnwell, M. J. G (1993): Tourism and eco- nomic development in ASEAN, pp. 214-233 Record Number 19921851152.
4. ASEAN StatisticsASEAN Statistical
Yearbook, 2003, www.aseansec.org'7637.htm 5. ASEAN Statistics:ASEAA^ Statistical
Y&irbook, 2005, www.aseansec.org/7637.htm 6. ASEAN-Japan Centre ASEAN Japan Centre tdwww.asean.or.jp/..yi31r.%20In%
7. Ting cue du lich Vidt Nam: Quy hogch tdng thi phat triin du lich Viit Nam giai dogn 1997 • 2015, Phu luc 1, Hd N?ii, 1997.
8. ESCAP: Statistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific 2007 (207 p),
www.unescap.org/stat/datEi/syb2007/escap- syb2007.pdf, ISBN: 978-92-1-019241-5, 9. ESCAP: Statistical Yearbook for Asia and
the Pacific 2011. Bangkok, Thailand ISBN:
978-92-1-120629-6, td www.unescap.org/stat/data/syb2011/escap-
syb2011.pdf (142-145p)
10. QuIc hOi nydc C^ng h6a Xa hpi chu nghia Viet Nam: Ludt Du lich ndm 2005. NXB Chinh tri qule gia, Hd Noi 2005.
11. World Tourism Organization: Tourism Higlig/its 2011 Editon p.4;
12. World Tourism Organization: 2007 Edition Tourism Market Trends Asia and the Pacific, ISBN-13: 978-92-844-1295-2.
Madrid, Spain. September 2008 (184 p) 13. World Tourism Organizatioa- Tourism
Market Trends, 2006- AnnexS 14. World Tourism Organization: World
Tourism Barometer Volum 10-May 2012 15. World Tourism Organization: World
Tourism Barometer Volum 10-May 2010 16. World Tourism Organization: World
Tourism Barometer Volum 10-May 2009 17. World Tourism Organization:
International Tourist Arrival by Country of Destination August 2001, www.world- tourism.org.fact/wtb.html
18. World Tourism Organization: International Tourist Arrival hy Subjection 2006, www.world-tourism.org.factAvtb.html
