Nguyin Hihi Huan / Tap chi Phdi min kmh (05/2013) 23-35 | 23
Phan tich moi quan he giira sy phat trien ciia thi tru-cmg chirng khoan va tang trirong kinh te
o Viet Nam
, „ Nguyen Hiru Huan Ngay nhan 22/02/2013 ^ ^
Ngay nhan lai 25/03/2013 Tnrcmg Dai hoc Kinh td TP HCM Ngay duyet dfing 26/04/2013
Mfis6 02-13-BF-05
huannguj en'S'ueh.edu vi Tom tat
Bdi Viet nghien cmi mdi tircnig quan giira sir tang tnrong cua thi tnrong chimg khodn vd tdng truong kinh te a VN thong qua viec nghien cint moi quan he nhdn qud giira chi so VN-lndex, vd long thu nlidp quoc noi GDP. Ket qud ngliien ciru cho thdy khong cd bdng-chimg ve mdi quan he giua chi sd VN-Index vd tang tnrdng kinh te a VN, tir dd nghien ciru dua ra de xudt ve hdm y tdi cdu true nen kinh te VN.
Tic khda: GDP, VN-Index, tang tioroTig kinh tl Abstract
The paper explores relationships between development of the stock exchange and economic growth in Vietnam by examining causal relations betM'een VNIndex and GDP. Research results show that no evidence of relations between VNIndex and Viemamese economic growth is found. This finding implies many opinions about restructuring of Vietnamese economy.
Keywords. GDP, VN-Index, economic growth
24 I Ngu>en Hiru Huan / Tap chi Phai irien kinh ti 271 (05/2013) 23-35
1. Gioi tliieu
Tren thi giai. dl danh gia sir tang trucmg cua mgt nen Icinh te, nguon ta thudng can cu vao su phat triln cua thi trudng chung khoan d qudc gia do, vi thi truong chung khoan dong mgt vai tro het sue quan trgng trong viec cung v6n trung va dai han cho nen kinh te. ngudn vdn quyet dinh cho su tang trudng kinh tl d cac quoc gia. Dudng nhu khdng cd mdt nen kinh te phat trien nao tren the gidi ma khdng gan lien vdi mdt thi trudng chimg khoan phat trien ximg tam vdi nd, chang han nhu My, Anh, Dire, Nhat v.v..Va de tim hieu .xem thuc sir cd mdi lien he giua sir phat trien ciia thi trudng chiing khoan va lang trudng kinh ll hay khdng, da cd rat nhieu nghien cuu dugc thuc hidn de tim cau tra Idi cho van de nay. De ddng gdp them cho cau tra Idi ve mdi quan he vT md trdn, lac gia tien hanh nghien cuu mdi lien he giira phat trien thi trudng chung khoan va tang trudng kinh te d VN, tu' dd de xuat chinh sach ve tai cau triic ngudn vdn de giiip cho nen kinh te VN phat trien nhanh va ben vijng.
2. Co- so li thuyet
Thj trudng chung khoan la mdt bd phan cua thj trudng lai chinh thuc hien chuc nang tai trg vdn trung va dai han cho nen kinh te. Hoal ddng chinh cua thj trudng chinh la mua ban va trao ddi cac chung khoan cd ki han tren I nam nhu Irai phieu. cd phieu, trai phieu chuyen ddi, chung khoan phai sinh, v.v..(Mishkin, 2010).
Chinh vi the, thj trudng chiing khoan ddng mdt vai trd quan trgng trong viec cung irng vdn dau lu cho nen kinh le. Thj trudng chiing khoan phai trien, thi viec huy ddng vdn diu lu ciia cac doanh nghiep se dien ra thuan Igi, de dang. Cac doanh nghiep Irong nen kinh le se cd nguon von trung va dai han de lai dau tu, tai san xuat dl phat trien quy md cua doanh nghiep, tir dd ddng gdp vao su tang trudng kinh te ciia qudc gia. Thdng qua ihi trudng chung khoan. Chinh phu va chinh quyln d cac dja phuong ciing huy ddng dugc cac ngudn vdn cho muc dich su dung va dau tu phat triln ha tang kinh le, phuc vu nhu cau chung ciia xa hdi. Thi trudng chung khoan khdng nhung thu hut cac nguon von trong ndi dja ma cdn giiip Chinh phii va cac doanh nghidp phat hanh chimg khoan ra thj trudng qudc te de Ihu hiit them ngudn vdn ngoai cho qudc gia. Viec thu hiit von diu tu nude ngoai qua kenh chiing khoan FPl (Foreign Portfolio Investment) la an loan va hieu qua vi cac chu thi phat hanh dugc loan quyen su dung vdn huy ddng ma khdng bj rang budc bdi bit ki didu khoan nao tii- cac nha diu lu nude ngoai.
Cac nhan id d thj trudng chung khoan dugc .xem la cd mdi lien he vdi sir tang trudng kinh tl nhu:
Chi sd gia chimg khoan ciia thj trudng, gia trj vdn hda thj trudng, khoi lugng giao djch va ti suit sinh lgi eiia eac chi sd nganh... Ljeh su da chi ra rang cac ylu to nay la mdt phin quan trgng cua hoal ddng giao djch tren thj trudng chiing khoan va cd thi gay anh hudng hoac la mdt thudc do danh gia ki vgng ciia xa hdi doi vdi sir phat triln trong tuang lai ciia ndn kinh te. Cac chi bao nay phan anh ddng thai ciia nen kinh le mdi each nhay ben va chinh xac. Gia cac chung khoan tang len, quy md thj trudng va thanh khoan lang len cho thay dau tu dang md rdng. ndn kinh tl lang trudng va ngugc lai, su sut giam cua cac chi bao nay se cho thiy cac diu hieu lieu cue ciia nen kinh te. Chinh vi the, thj trudng cluing khoan ihudng dugc xem la phong vu bilu ciia nin kinh td, va chu ki ciia thj trudng chirng khoan tren co sd li thuylt ihudng di trudc nin kinh tl thuc tir 3 din 6 thang.
Nguyin Hihi Huan /Tap chi Phdi Inen kinh till] (05/2013) 23-35 | 25
ECCWlOMCCYCtE O STOCK MARKET CYCLE B [s]S
Trough
nn Hang hoa tieu diing ' ' h^n -•ben
Hang lioa tieu diing kliong bein [3] Duoc. chaju soc site
^khoe. V tl Tai chinh
[S] Nganli cong nah^ [9] Nang lugmg [S] Cong nghiep n^ng [IO] Djch \ u
[7] San pham co baa Kim lo?ii quy [8]\'aii tai
Hmh 1. Chu Id cua thi truong chirng khoan va chu ki ciia nen kinh te 3. Cac nghien ciru thuc nghiem trirac do
De kiem dinh lai ti'nh diing dan ciia li thuyet tren, da eo rat nhieu nghien ciru thuc nghiem ve moi quan he giua tang trudng kinh te va phat trien cua thj trudng ehung khoan, va no da trd thanh mpt chu de pho bien trong nghien cuu thuc nghiem (Levine, 2004).
M6i tuomg quan giira tang truomg kinh te va cac chi so cua thj trudng tai chinh da dupc nghien ciru dau tien bdi Goldsmith (1969), Me Kinnon (1973) va Shaw (1973), day la nhirng nha khoa hpc da tim thay dupc bing chung vl m6i lien he nay. Va cac nha nghien cuu khac da phat trien nen li thuylt tir cac nghien ciiu thuc nghiem nay nhu Greenwood & Jovanovic (1990) hay Generally &
Pagano (1993), cac nha nghien cuu nay da tim dupe bang chumg ve tac dpng ciing chieu ciia chi so tai chinh den tang trudmg kinh te.
Ake & Dehuan (2010) sir dung Granger Causalit}' Test de tim kilm moi quan he giura thj trudng chung khoan thdng qua cac chi so vdn hda thj trudmg, tdng khdi lupng giao djch, loi nhuan thj trudng din tang trudng kinh te d mdt sd quoc gia (Anh va Phap). Kdt qua nghien ciru cho thay cd mdi quan he thuan chidu giira thj trudmg chumg khoan va tang trudmg kinh te d Phap va Anh, tuy nhien hai nha khoa hpc nay lai khdng tim thSy mdi quan he tren d Bd Dao Nha va Bi.
Harris (1997) da tien hanh mdt nghien ciru thuc nghiem ve moi quan he giua thj trudng chimg khoan va tang trudng kinh tl va dua ra kit luan ring khdng cd bing chung manh me vi hoat ddng ciia thj trudng chirng khoan giiip ich cho su phat trien kinh te.
Ake & Ognaligui (2010) sir dung Granger Causality Test dl xac djnh moi quan he giira thj trudng chirng khoan va tang trudng kinh te d Cameron, dua vao du' lieu chudi thdi gian tir nam 2006-2010.
Va hp chi ra ring chi so chirng khoan Douala Stock Exchange khdng cd tac ddng den tang tnrdng kinh te.
26 I Nguyen Hihj Huan Tap chi Phai irien kinh li 271 (OS/IOIS) 23-35
Qua do, chiing ta co the thay dygc rang khong co mot ket qua nghien ciiu thirc nghieiii dong nhat nao ve moi quan he giua tang trucmg kinh te va thj truong ehiing khoan. Tuy nhien, so lugng Ion cac nghien ciiu chi ra rang co moi quan he mot chieu tir thi trucmg chiing khoan den tang truong kinh te, hoac ngugc lai. Va dua tren cac nen tang nghien cim truoc do, tac gia tien hanh nghien ciiu thuc nghiem moi quan he giira thi truong chirng khoan va tang truong kinh te d VN.
4. Dir lieu va phu-orng phap nghien cihi
Dir lieu dugc tac gia thu thap tir quy 2/2005 den quy 4/2012 ciia VN-lndex va GDP theo nguon dir lieu cua Sd Giao dich Chirng khoan TP.HCM va Tong cue Thong ke VN.
4.1.VN-Index
La chi sd gia chiing khoan ca ban ciia thi trudng chung khoan VN, bao gdm hon 200 ma ehung khoan dugc niem yet.
VN-lndex dugc Uy ban Chung khoan Nha nude tinh loan theo phuang phap chi sd gia binh quan Passcher. VN - Index dugc tinh theo cdng thiic sau:
Trong dd:
PI,: Gia hien hanh cua cd phieu i
Ql,: Khdi lugng dang luu hanh (khdi lugng niem yet) cua cd phidu i PO,: Gia ciia cd phieu i thdi ki gdc
Qo,: Khdi lugng cua cd phieu i tai thdi ki goc
DO- lieu VN-lndex dugc liy tir ngudn Sd Giao djch Chirng khoan TP.HCM GDP (Tdng thu nhap qudc ndi)
Tang trudng kinh te dugc do ludng bdi sir gia tang san lugng trong ndn kinh te, va thudng tren the gidi ngudi ta sii dung chi tieu tdng thu nhap qudc ndi, tiirc la tdng san phim ma ngudi dan trong lanh thd qude gia dd tao ra trong mdt nam. sd lieu GDP VN dugc liy tir Tdng cue Thdng ke VN.
4.2. Phircmg phdp nghien cuu
Dua uen cac nghien cim trudc dd va danh gia nguon dir lieu cdn han che hien nay d VN, tac gia de xuat md hinh nghien ciiu la md hinh VAR. vdi hai bien ndi sinh la sai phan bac 2 cua GDP va chi sd VN-Index. Vide sir dung md hinh VAR nay cd thd khic phuc dugc nhirng ban chd \h mat dir lieu d VN (do sd quan sat qua it) va khic phuc dugc hien tugng ndi sinh trong md hinh so vdi cac md hinh udc lugng theo cac phuang phap truyin thdng nhu OLS (Ordinars least square).
yw=^io + ^ii v„-i+- • •+^*yi,-*+«ii>'2/-i+- • •+au>^,-i+Mi,
y2t=pv> + p2\ yit-y +• • •+Piky2,-k + aji .vi,-i +• • •+aiky\,-k + uy Vai:
Vl/.- sai phdn hdc 2 ciia GDP Vl,: sai phdn hdc 2 cua VN-Index
Nguyen Hiru Huan / Tap chi Phdi Inen kinh till] (05/2013) 23-35 | 27
Ml,.- sai SO (phdn dur) cua GDP U2i: sai so (phdn du) cua VN-Index ybien do Ire cua bien y\,. w,, k la do tre.
5. Ket qua nghien cihi
5. /. Klem dinh dnh dirng ctia chudl dir lieu thdi gian
Truac khi tien hanh kiem djnh moi quan he giua GDP va VN-Index, tac gia tiln hanh kilm dinh tinh dirng cua hai biin so nay dl dam bao ring ca hai chu6i dir lieu GDP va VN-Index dlu la chuoi dirng. Neu nhu dieu kien nay khong thoa, thi phuang trinh hoi quy se gap vin de nghiem trong va uac lugng se co the bj chech, khong con chinh xac nira. Gia thuylt Ho la chu6i dCr lieu GDP va VN- lndex la chuoi khong dimg. va dugc kiem dinh bang phuang phap kiem djnh nghiem don vi (unit roof test). Bang I trinh bay ket qua kiem dinh nghiem dan vi ciia hai chuoi dir lieu thdi gian GDP va VN-lndex. Ketqua cho thay, gia thuyet Ho dugc chap nhan d chudi dir lieu GDP va bj bac bd d chudi dir lieu VN-Index.
Bang 1. Ket qua kiem djnh tinh dirng cua chuoi dir lieu GDP Gia thuyet Ho: Kiem dinh nghiem dom vi ciia GDP
Bien ngoai smh: Hang so
Lag Length: 4 (Automatic based on SIC. iVlAXLAG=7) t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -0,883530 0,7772 Kilm dinh gid tn tieu chudn: 1% level -3,711457
5% level -2,981038 10% level -2,629906
•MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Bang 2. Ket qua kilm djnh tinh diing ciia VN-Index Gia thuylt Ho: Kilm djnh nghiem dom vi cua VN-lndex Biin ngoai sinh: Hdng so
Lag Length: 3 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=7) t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3,108140 0,0379 Kilm djnh gid trj tieu chudn: 1% level -3,699871
5% level -2,976263 10% level -2,627420
•MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
28 I Nguyen Hifu Huan Tap chi Phdt irien kmh li 271 (05/2013) 23-35
Do GDP la chuoi khong dimg nen khong the tien hanh hoi quy theo chuoi dir lieu nay. De khac phuc vkn de nay. tac gia lin lugt tiln hanh lay sai phan bac I va bac 2 cua hai chudi dii lieu GDP va VN-lndex va tiep tuc kiem djnh tinh dirng cua cac chudi dir lieu nay sau khi da liy sai phan. Ket qua cho thiy GDP va VN-Index deu la chuoi dimg d sai phan bac hai.
Bang 3. Kdt qua kilm dinh tinh dimg cua chuoi dir lieu sai phan bac hai ciia GDP Gia thuylt Ho: Kilm dinh nghiem don vi cua D(GDP.2)
Bien ngoai sinh: HSng so
Lag Length: 2 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=7) t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -24.94853 0,0001 Kiem dinh gia tri tieu chuan: 1% level -3.711457
5% level -2,981038 10% level -2,629906
•MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Bang 4. Ket qua kiem djnh tinh dirng cua chudi dir lieu sai phan bac hai cua VN-Index Gia thuyet Ho: Kiem djnh nghiem dom vi cua D(VN-lndex,2)
Bien ngoai sinh: Hang so
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=7) t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -7,180932 0,0000 Kiem dinh gia Ui tieu chuan: 1% level -3,699871
5% level -2,976263 10% level -2,627420
•MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
5.2. Chpn dp tre phii hpp cho mo hinh VAR can hdi quy
Md hinh VAR dugc kiem djnh bang viec lua chon dua vao dp trd cua cac bidn ndi sinh Bang 5. Lira chon do tre phu hop cho mo hinh VAR
Biin npi sinh: D(GDP.2) D(VN-INDEX,2) Bien ngoai sinh: Hing s6
Mau: I 31
So quan sat: 24 Lag LogL LR FPE AlC SC HQ 0 -320.1255 NA l,56e-09 26.84379 26,94196 26.86983
1 -306.7997 23.32004 7.l9e+08 26.06664 26,361 16 26,14478
•y -302,1288 7,395649 6,87e+08 26.01073 26,50159 26,14096 3 -267.7059 48,76570* 55.651.659^ 23,47550* 24,16269^ 23,65781*
Nguyin Hiru Huan / Tap chi Phdt irien kinh ti 271 (05/2013) 23-35 | 29
4 -266,8033 1,128315 75.132.851 23,73361 24,61715 23,96801 5 -263,0770 4,036814 82.484.998 23,75642 24,83630 24,04291
* Indicates lag order selected by the criterion
LR: sequential modified LR test statistic (each test at 5% level) FPE: Final prediction error
AlC: Akaike information criterion SC: Schwarz information criterion HQ: Hannan-Quinn information criterion
Ket qua xac djnh do tre phu hgp theo Order Selaction Criteria, tac gia chon dp tre la 3 theo cac tieu chi LR, FPE, AIC, SC, va HQ.
Tiep theo do, gia tien hanh chay mo hinh VAR theo dp tri la 3.
5.3. Kiem dinit quan /te n/ian qud
Tac gia sir dung phuang phap kilm djnh Wald (VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald) de kiem djnh mli quan he nhan qua giira VN-Index va GDP theo mo hinh VAR. Vai gia thuylt Ho:
Khong CO mli quan he nhan qua.
Bang 6. Ket qua kiem dinh quan he nhan qua VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests
Mlu: I 31 So quan sdt: 26 Biin phu thupc: D(GDP,2)
Excluded Chi-Square df Prob.
D(VN-1NDEX,2) 2,892518 3 0,4085
All 2,892518 3 0,4085
Biin phu thupc: D(VN-INDEX.2)
Excluded Chi-Square df Prob.
D(GDP,2) 2,232671 0,5255
AU 2,232671 3 0,5255
Kit qua kiem djnh quan he nhan qua cho thay vai P-value lan Iup1 la 0,485 va 0,525 chiing ta chap nhan gia thuyet Ho, va co the ket luan rang khong ton tai bang chung co moi quan he nhan qua giiTa GDP va VN-lndex. 5.4. Kiem din/t ttr (trang quan
De danh gia mo hinh co xay ra hien tupng tu tuong quan hay khong, tac gia tien hanh kilm djnh tu tuang quan (VAR Residual Portmanteau Tests).
30 I Ngu\cn HOu Huin , Tap chi Phdi irien kinh ti 271 (05/2013) 23-35
Bang 7. Ket qua kiem dinli tir tuvng quan Gia thuylt Ho: Khong c6 hien tugng tu tuong quan tai dp tre h Mlu: 1 31
So quan sat: 26
Lags LM-Stat Prob 1 1,292047 0,8627
2 1,074068 0,8984
3 2,714654 0,6067
4 5,326637 0,2554
5 1,396523 0,8448
6 7 8 4,045624 24,30416 1,563281 0,8154 0,3999 0,0001
0,282069 0,9909
10 2,478142 0,6486
1 1 2,904656 0.5739
12 1,053012 0,9017
Probs from chi-square with 4 df.
Ket qua cho thSy da s6 eac biin tre trong mo hinh deu Ichong gay ra hien tugng tu tuong quan, va mo hinh su dung ia hieu qua cho uoc lugng.
Tiep theo chung ta tien hanh phan tich tac dgng phan ung day (Impulse Response) va phan tich phan ra phuang sai (Variance Decomposition) de xem xet moi quan he giira hai bien GDP va VN- Index.5.5. Tac dpng phan ung day (Impulse Response)
Response to Chotesky One S D Innovations ± 2 S E Response of D(GDP 2) lo D(GDP 2| Response of DIGDP 2) lo D(VNINDEX.2)
Hinh 1. Tac dong phan irng day
Tac dpng phan ung diy (Impulse Response) chi ra su tac dpng cua hai bien so, tr ^j^j mpt xu hucmg khong ro rang va gia tang dan su bien dpng khi chu ki tang len trong tac dun- ciia
Nguyen y\ii\3 Huan / Tap chi Phdi Inen kinh li 27] (05/2013)23-35 | 31
GDP vai cliinh ban than no, tir hoi quy. Trong khi dieu nay la ngugc lai doi vai VN-lnde,\ khi tac dpng ciia chinh no giam dan khi chu ki tang len. Ben canh do, ket qua cung chi ra tac dpng rat nho va khong dang ke ciia VN-Index den GDP, va dieu nay ciing tuang tu d chieu nguoc lai, qua do cho thay moi lien he rat yeu tham chi la khong co moi lien he giira hai bien s6 nghien ciru la GDP va VN- lndex.
5.6. Phdn (ich phdn rd phuorng sai
DI danh gia chinh xac hon ve sir giai thich Ian nhau giira hai biin so VN-lndex va GDP, tac gia tien hanh phan tich phan ra phuang sai de do ludng mirc dp giai thich giira hai bien so nay va tim moi lien he giOa chiing theo chu ki la 10. Ket qua nhu sau:
Bang 8. Ket qua phan ti'ch phan ra phirang sai Phan ra phuang sai ciia D(GDP,2):
Period S.E. D(GDP,2) D(VN-INDEX,2) 1 38,61935 100,0000 0.000000 2 57,24763 94,07970 5,920298 3 58,64843 89,80015 10,19985 4 58,65367 89,80105 10,19895 5 78,60218 94,31487 5,685131 6 96,38359 93,77474 6,225257 7 97,75885 91,39437 8,605634 8 97.78422 91,38655 8,613448 9 120.8790 94.32460 5,675404 10 142,0753 93.82933 6,170668
Phan ra phuomg sai cua D(VN-1NDEX.2):
Period S.E. D{GDP.2) D(VN-INDEX.2) 1 137,3177 0.975387 99,02461 2 138,8255 1,075424 98,92458 3 151,5126 0,903670 99,09633 4 162,7932 0.784388 99.21561 5 163,1997 0,782217 99,21778 6 169,5102 0.779084 99,22092 7 170,6158 1.012452 98.98755 8 172.4229 1.130527 98.86947 174,5282 1.107108 98,89289 10 174.5314 1.108855 98,89114 Cholesky Ordering: D(GDP.2) D( VN-INDEX,2)
Phan tich phan ra phuang sai cho thiy VN-lndex chi giai thich dupe 6,2 % trong su thay ddi cua GDP, va GDP dugc giai thich den 93.8 % trong sir bien dpng cua chinh nd. Trong khi dd, VN-Index chi cd the giai thich 1,1% trong viec du bao sir thay ddi cua GDP, va phan cdn lai la sir thay ddi cua chinh VN-Index doi vdi nd.
6. Ket luan
Ket qua nghien ciru cho thay khdng ton tai bing chirng ve mdi lien he giira sir phat trien ciia thj trudng chirng khoan VN thdng qua chi sd VN-lndex va su phat trien kinh te d VN thdng qua chi sd GDP bing md hinh VAR, va cac kiem dinh ve quan he nhan qua, phan tich tac ddng phan img day.
32 I Nguyen HOu Huan / Tap chi Phdi men kmh ti 271 (05/2013) 23-35
Ben canh do, phuomg phap phan ra phuong sai cho chiing ta ket luan chi 6,2 % du bao ve su thay doi cua VN-lndex dugc giai thich bdi tang trudng kinh te, 93,8 % la bdi chinh no. Trong khi do, chi 1,1 % du bao ve su thay d6i cua GDP dugc giai thich bdi VN-lndex, va 98,9 % cdn lai la bdi chinh no. Qua do, CO the ket luan khong co moi lien he giiia su phat trien thi truong chiing khoan VN va tang trudng kinh te GDP d VN.
Mot so nguyen nhan chii ylu c6 the li giai cho van de tren nhu sau:
- Thj trudng chung khoan VN con kha so khai, so lugng va chat lugng cong ty niem yet tren thj trudng chua thuc su dai dien cho ca nin kinh te, rat nhieu cac tap doan, cac tong cong ty nha nude vdn chua niem yit tren thj trudng chiing khoan VN.
- Van con t6n tai rdt nhilu bat cap tren thj trudng nhu cac hien tugng lam gia chirng khoan, bop meo chi so, lung doan thj trudng cua cac to chuc, ca nhan tren thj truong, khien cho thj truong dien biin phirc tap va khdng phan anh trung thuc ve hoat dong ciia nen kinh te, va lam cho cac nha dau tu mat niem tin doi vdi thj trudng.
- He thdng NHTM vdn la kenh huy dpng von chii ylu cua da so cac doanh nghiep d VN, va thj trudng chiing khoan chua thuc su phat huy tot vai tro la cung von trung va dai ban cho nen kinh tl.
- Ti le ngudi dan tham gia vao thj trudng chung khoan con han che, chi 1% dan so, trong khi ti le nay d Trung Qudc la 10%, Dai Loan la 70% va My la hon 90%. Hon nua, phan Idn cac nha dau tu' hien tai tren thj trudng cd rat it kien thuc co ban ve thj trudng chung khoan, va chu ylu dau tu theo dam dong, dieu na>- ciing lam dnh hudng rat ldn doi vdi su phat trien ben vung cua thj tin-dng chimg khoan VN.
7. Goi y chi'nh sach
Hien nay d VN. thj truong chirng khoan vdn chua thuc su phat huy tdt vai trd cua nd, theo ket ludn cua bai nghien ciiu, do mdt sd tdn tai dupc neu d tren, nen kinh te van qua phu thudc vao he thdng NHTM, noi ngudn vdn trung va dai han het sire han che do cac nguon von chii yiu cua NHTM Id ngudn vdn ngan ban.
Ben canh dd. viec ddc quyen trong cung iing vdn cho nen kinh tl ciia he thdng NHTM gay ra nhung he qua nghiem trpng cho nen kinh te trong giai doan vira qua nhu: Lai sudt tang giam bdt thudng. ehi phi vay vdn qua cao so vdi cac nude trong khu vuc, hinh thanh cac nhdm Ipi ich, tinh trang sd hiru cheo tai cac NHTM gay anh hudng to ldn den viec dilu hanh kinh tl vT md cua Chinh phu. Ben eanh dd. rui ro dao due tang cao khi cac ngan hang chay theo Ipi nhuan khi cho vay tran lan dan den tinh trang np .xau tang cao trong toan he thong, gay anh hudng nghiem trpng den sir dn djnh kinh te vT md, va budc Chinh phu, ngan hang nha nude phai vao cudc dd tai cdu triic lai he thdng. Trudc nhiing van de neu tren, trong viec tai cau true nguon von cung ung cho ndn kinh tl, Chinh phli khdng chi tap trung vao tai cau true he thong NHTM, ma ben canh dd can phdi dua ra eac chinh sach kich diich thj Uirdng chiing khoan tang trudng mdt each ben vung. Nhdm giup thj trudng phat huy tdt vai trd quan trpng cua nd trong viec huy ddng von cho nen kinh tl, tao ra mdt kenh huy ddng vdn canh tranh vdi he thdng NHTM, giiip giam chi phi sir dung vdn ciia doanh nghiep, loai bd tinh trang dpc quyin. Ipi ich nhdm cua he thong NHTM, va ho trp cho cac doanh nghiep boat ddng hieu
Nguyen HOu Huan / Tap chi Phdi irien kinh d 271 (05/2013) 23-35 | 33
qua hom. Dieu nay se gop phan vao cong cuoc phat trien Icinh te VN ben virng trong giai doan mdi, giai doan nen Icinh te hdi nhap va phat trien.
Ve mat quan If, dieu hanh thj tnrdng chung Ichoan, cac giai phap can hudng vao cac ndi dung sau da\:
- Cac CO quan quan li can tang cudng thanh tra, giam sat cac hoat ddng giao djch tren thj trudng nhim minh bach hda thdng tin, han che tinh trang thdng tin bit can xung tren thi trudng; thanh tra va xu li cac giao djch ndi gian, giao djch lung doan thj trudng, nhim han che cac trudng hop lam gia, bdp meo chi sd cua cac td chuc, ca nhan.
- Riit ngan thdi gian giao djch, chuyen nhugmg chung khoan nhim gia tang tinh thanh Ichoan cho thj trudng chung khoan, giam thieu dugc hien tucmg lam gia tren thj trudng.
- Day manh cd phan hda cac doanh nghiep, tdng cdng ty, tap doan nha nude khi dilu kien nin kinh te cho phep nham gia tang ngudn cung cd chat lugng cho thi trndng, va giup thj trudng phan anh chinh xac hon su phat trien cua nen kinh tl.
- Tien hanh tai cau true thj trudmg chumg khoan toan didn theo dd an tai ciu true cua Chinh phu, trong do uu tien viec hgp nhat hai Sd Giao djch Chung khoan TP.HCM va Ha Ndi, giiip cho hoat ddng giao djch d thj trudng tap trung dugc thdng nhat va lidn thdng vdi nhau.
- Phd cap kien thiic cd phieu cho nha diu tu:
Cdng tac nghien cuu va dao tao kien thuc ve chiing khoan va thj tnrdng chung khoan da dugc thuc hien trong cac co quan quan li nha nude ve thj trudng chung khoan, cung nhu cac trudng dai hoc khdi nganh kinh te - tai chinh - ngan hang trong ca nude. Tuy nhien, nhiing ddi tugng dugc hoc tap va tilp can vdi nhiing kiln thiic chuyen nganh nay van tap trung d nhirng ngudi lam viec trong lmh vuc chiing khoan cung nhu sinh vien cac trudng dai hoc thudc khdi nganh kinh te. Cdn dai bp phan dan chung vin rat xa la va cd nhung hieu biet mo hd ve chiing khoan va thj trudng chiing khoan, dilu nay lam cho sd lupmg ngudi dan tham gia vao thj trudng chiing khoan chiem mdt ti Id rat nhd tren tong dan so, hon nua nhung ngudi cd tham gia vao thj trudng thi vdi kien thiic han hep ve chiing khoan, hp cung rit dd bj chi phoi, dau tu theo dam ddng va lam cho cac chi sd chiing khoan phan anh khdng trung thuc nhung gi dang xay ra trong nin kinh te. Do dd, cdng viec nghien ciiu va phd bien kiln thiic cho dai da sd cdng chiing la ydu cau cip thilt dl gia tang ngudn cau cho thj trudng va giiip cho thj trudng chiing khoan phat trien mdt each bin vung. Cd the tien hanh ddng thdi mdt sd giai phap sau dd dat dupc yeu cau cap thiet tren:
Thic nhal, Uy ban Chung khoan Nha nude da cd trung tam dao tao chiing khoan va da md cac Idp hpc thudng xuyen nhim cung cip kien thiic cd philu la dieu hay can phat huy. Trung tam nen tiep tuc nghien ciiu va mdcac ldp hpc miu ngin han hay td chiic cac budi ndi chuyen chuyen de ve chung khoan va TTCK tai cac trung tam van hda quan. huyen hay Nha van hda Thanh nien, cac budi hpp td dan pho eho ddi tugng dang sinh boat tai day cd djp vua vui choi giai tri vua hpc tap bd I'ch, va gdp phin phd cap hda kien thiic chung khoan cho ngudi dan. Thir hai, cac tnrdng dai hpc tilp tuc hinh thanh va dau tu phat trien hom niia bp mdn chiing khoan cung nhu dua cac mdn hpc chuyen sau vao chuomg trinh. Ben canh dd, tien hanh md cac Idp ngan ban phd cap vl kiln thiic chiing khoan co ban va chuyen sau ddi vdi nhirng ngudi dan cd nhu cau. Thir ba, dl cho thj trudng ehirng khoan khdng cdn qua xa la vdi ngudi dan, kien nghj Uy ban Chiing khoan Nha nude ket hgp vdi cac dai truyin hinh nghien ciru va xay dung trd chai truyen hinh
34 I \gu\ en Hihi Huan / Tap chi Phdi inen kinh li 271 (05/2013) 23-35
\h chumg khoan, nham tao nen mot phong trao tim hieu ve kenh dau tu moi me nay cho dai bo phan ngudi dan.
Xay dung he thdng dinh muc tin nhiem d VN:
Cac cdng ty xep ban djnh muc tin nhiem ddng mdt vai trd quan trong tren thj tnrdng chung khoan, gdp phin cung cap cac thdng tin, cac phan tich chuyen sau clio cac nha dau tu, giup cho cac nha dau tu cd cai nhin tdng quan va chinh xac hon ve su phat trien cua thj trudng chung khoan, chinh vi the viec xay dung he thdng dinh muc tin nhiem d VN se lam cho thj trudng chung khoan va cac chi sd gia tren thj trudng hoat ddng hieu qua hon.
DI cac cdng ty djnh muc tin nhidm cd the hinh thanh, tdn tai va phat trien trong bdi canh thj trudng chung khoan VN cdn non tre can chii y den eac van de sau:
- Thir nhat, vd mat phap luat can nhanh chdng xay dung, hoan thidn khung phap li ve hoat ddng ciia cac cdng ty djnh muc tin nhiem. Luat Cd phieu can bd sung mdt phan quy dinh ve nhung van de ehung nhat trong hoat ddng ciia cac td chuc djnh muc tin nhiem nhu khai nidm, dja vj phap li, nguyen tic td chuc va hoat ddng cua td chuc djnh muc tin nhiem,...Vi hoat ddng djnh muc tin nhiem la hoan toan mdi me tai VN nen trong giai doan diu, Chinh phii can ban hanh cac nghi djnh de hudng dan thuc hien, tao mdi uudng phap li thuan lgi cho boat ddng ciia cac cdng ty djnh muc tin nhiem. Ben canh dd, can cd nhung boat ddng tuyen truyen de nang cao nhan thuc ciia nha phat hanh va nha dau tu ve djnh muc tin nhiem.
Ngoai ra, trong qua trinh .xay dung co sd phap li cho cac td chuc djnh muc tin nhidm, can chu y den tinh ddc lap cua cac td chuc nay. Tinh ddc lap ciia cac td chuc djnh muc tin nhiem la toi quan trpng trong su thanh cdng va muc dp tin cay ciia nhung td chuc nay. Tinh ddc lap cua nhung td chuc nay se giiip dua ra nhung bao cao, nhan djnh va y kien mang tinh khach quan ve td chuc phat hanh.
- Thir hai de he thdng djnh mue tin nhiem thanh cdng can cd su hgp tac, tiep thu kinh nghiem, chuyen mdn tir cac td chuc djnh muc tin nhiem trdn the gidi. Viec nhan dugc su hd trg ciia qudc te ve chia se kien thirc se giup VN tranh nhiing sai lam cua nude khac trong qua trinh xay dung cac td chirc djnh miic tin nhiem.
Hidn tai, cd the xem xet de chuyen Trung tam Thdng tin tin dung nha nude (CIC) thanh cdng ty dinh mirc tin nhiem la thich hpp nhat vi hang nam CIC cQng td chiic danh gia xep hang cac doanh nghiep. Mac dii mirc dp chat lupng thdng tin la chua cao. tu\ nhien viec chuyen md hinh boat ddng ciia CIC se cd rat nhieu diem thuan Ipi.
Cung can luu y rang viec thanh lap he thong djnh mirc tin nhiem tai VN khdng nen qua ndng vdi ma phai tien hanh timg budc that can than nham dam bao dupc tinh chuyen nghidp cin thiet. Trong giai doan dau cd the thanh lap mdt td chirc djnh muc tin nhiem thudc sd hiru nha nude va sau dd cd the cho phep chuyen thanh sd hiiu tu nhanB
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