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TRONG THdl KY TH| TRUaNG CHIJNG KHOAN SUT GIAM
CUNG veil SUSUY THOAl CUA TTCK THE' GICJI, NHLTNG PHIEN GIAO DjCH GAN D A Y TTCK VI$T NAM LIEN TUC LAO D 6 C . N H I ^ U THONG TIN TOT DA X U A T H I E N , N H U N G KHONG G A Y O U O C "SiSQ, N A N G " 001VCJI THI TRUCiJNG, TRONG B 6 I CANH 0 0 , C A N PHAI CO MOT LIEU THUOC KICH THICH MANH VAO T A M LY C A C N H A D A U T U ,
TAM LY PHU THUOC VAO NHA
DAUTl/C6T6CHi:fC
Cho din nay TTCK Vidt Nam da hoat ddng duge gan 8 nam song hau nhu ai d n g eho ring do la mdt thj tardng "non tte", quy md nhd, chua chuyen nghiep, ddu tu chii ylu theo dang "bay dan", ttieo tin ddn, ttieo sd ddng... Thuc ra, nlu nhin sdu vao hoat ddng cua ttij ta;gng, ttii rd rang nhtfrig nhan xlt, dinh gia trdn la khdng h i sai, thlm d i d ttil ndi Id rat
"sat", Nhung, khi dimg ta lat nguge lai van d l , nlu khdng d tim ly "bay dan".
"dua theo sd ddng", thi TTCK Viet Nam se hoat ddng nhu ttil ndo, lieu d the coi la
"duyen nghiep" dugc dua? Ngay ca nhilu duyen gia ky cuu v l chung kholn cung rat de dat khi de d p din van de nay, bdi mdi ngugi ePn hieu tU "chuyen nghiep" theo mdi d c h , hudng hd la chuyen djnh ti'nh, djnh hinh dung "chat"
eho hoat dpng ciia TTCK.
Trd lai van d l tam ly eiia d c nha dau tu. TU ttude din nay, d c nha dau tu d nhan thudng d j u anh hudng kha Idn tu d e nha dau tu d td due (thuong hoat ddng dudi dang quy dau tu). Hon thi nua.
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d c nha dau tu td ddc ttong nude lai phu thupc khdng ft vdo d c nha dau tu td dnisc nude ngoai. Tren d e san giao djch, thudng xuyen d d c cudc trao ddi ciia d c nha dau tu theo kieu: "hdm nay khdi ngoai mua/ban ma nao?", hoac "khdi lugng mua/ ban d a nha dau tu nude ngoai la bao nhieu?".,. Thuc ra, chuyen
"phu thupc" d a nhd dau tu d nhan vao nha dau tu d td &^dc cung la chuyin binh thudng bdi nhieu ly do. Trong do, ly do hang dau la nha dau tu td chuc ttiu thap, xu ly tdt ttidng tin d ve vl md va vi md. Day la dilu d e nha dau tu d nhan
IHl IRUONG \i\ CHlNH IlfN If • Sd 21(271) • 1/11 nm
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thuang "lip v l ' hon do khdng d dilu kien de thu tiiap thdng tin mpt d c h d p nhat, day dii, hoac chua d dii nang luc de do luOng dugc mUc dp quan trpng cua thdng tin trude khi dua ra quyet djnh dau tu. Ben canh dd, nha dau tu td chUe thuong ed dpi ngu nhdn luc chuyen nghiep biet kit hgp phan tich eo ban v l phan tich ky thuat ca tren binh dien toan thj truang, nhom nganh hang cung nhu timg doanh nghiep niem yet eu the. Ngoai ra, kha nang quan ly danh muc, quan trj riii ro ciia nha dau tu td chuc bao gid cung hon hln d c nha dau tu d nhan. Khi thj tardng dien bien theo chieu nao, nha dau tu td chdc cung de dang dilu chinh danh muc dau tu ciia minh nham nang cao kha nang sinh Idi hoac giam thieu tdi da thiet
khi xudng thi dua nhau "xa hang". Tuy nhien, ttong thOi diem hien nay, nha dau tu nude ngoai dang dao dpng ve mat tam ly do cudc khiing hoang kinh te thi gidi vd nhung bat dn tai ehinh qudc, nha dau tu
"ndi" khdng nen phu ttiudc vdo nhiing quylt djnh mua/bln cua hp tren thj tivdng ma d n phai tin tudng vao nhung ylu td ndi tai ciia nen kinh t l Viet Nam va phai the hien duge tinh chii dpng cao trong mdi quylt dinh ciia minh.
THI T R J O N G LAO D(5C: CH(5 CO
HOI BAT -OAY"
DuPng nhu "du dan" d a "eon bao"
tai chi'nh ti'n dung ciia My van tilp tuc lan rdng, d u a xlc djnh dugc dil'm ddng nen
Tir (rtrtSc dSn nay, dc nha dau tif d nhan thirang chiu anh huong khi Idn tir dc nha dau ti/ c6 to chirc
hai, ttong khi dd nhd dau tu d nhan thudng phan van, khd quylt djnh.
Mdt diem de nhan thay giua nhi dau tu td chdc va nha dau tu d nhan la nha dau tu td chdc ludn d u ddng dugc ngudn vdn, ttiam chf Id kha Idn, nhat la nhirng quy dau tu nude ngoai. Dilu dd mang lai Igi thi khdng nhd trong vide llm gia, dilu khiln thj ttudng. V I mat nay, nha dau tu d nhan ttiudng d tam ly "an theo" nha dau tu td chdc. Mdt sd nguoi cdn tu biln hd cho nhdng quylt djnh ciia minh theo kilu: "Tly nd ti'nh ky rdi, cd dau tu theo,
"nd" duge ttii minh cung dugc, nlu mat thi
"nd" mat nhilu d d minh mat may"...
Qua theo ddi thue t l trdn d c san giao djch tai TTCK Viet Nam ttidi gian qua, sd lugng va gia tri giao djch eiia d c nha dau tu td chdc thudng d vai trd rat quan trpng trong vi|c dan dat thj tivdng. Chinh dieu dd da tac ddng manh den xu thi len xudng gil cd phieu, khi len thi len ao at,
IHl IRUONG IAI CHlNH IlfN If • $ < 21(271) • 1/11/2008
nIn kinh t l ttil gidi ndi chung vd TTCK toan cau ndi rieng tilp tuc Idm vao tinh trang suy thoai. TTCK Viet Nam d n g lien tue "dd san" va da xudng mdt mdc rat ttiap. Trong tuan giao djch tu 20 - 24/10, gid trj giao d j d loan ttij tarong chi dat binh quan khoang 370 ty ddng/philn.
Tinh din ngly 27/10, HCKVN da lap mdt ky luc mdi ve "day" khi kit ttiuc philn, chi sd Vn- Index chi cdn 329,28 diem, khdi lugng giao djch thdng qua khdp lenh dat 12,4 ttilu d ' philu vdi gia trj giao djch dat 326,6 ty ddng. Tat d d e cd philu d vdn hod Idn diu giam sin. Tai san Ha Ndi, Haste- Index ddng eda d mdc 105,19 dil'm, khdi lugng giao djch dat 7,7 trieu ed phieu vdi gid trj giao djch dat 179,9 ty ddng.
Dien biln d a TTCKVN trong thdi gian nay khdng gidng nhu mong dgi cua nhilu nha dau tu. Bdi tardc dd, Chinh phii da cdng bd ta;dc Qudc hdi kha nang khd
hodn ttianh muc tilu ting ttvdng kinh t l nam 2008 la 7 - 7,5% nhu du kiln ma se nlm ttong khoang 6,5 - 7%, nhung van d n kha nang tang tivdng ttong dai han.
Dilu dd d nghTa Id, Viet Nam phai dap nhan giam ehi tilu ting tivdng GDP va dua nIn kinh t l di vao quy dao cham nhung ehac va bin virng, ddng ttiOi dam bao dugc an sinh xa hpi. Ben canh dd, &i\
sd lam phat, dr[\ sd gia tilu diing, lai suat cho vay eiia d c ngan hang... cung dang tung bude giam dan. Hau hit bio d o tai chinh quy 111/2008 cua d c doanh nghiep niem yet da d n g bd diu d iai, &i\ d mdt sd it bj Id. Thuc ra, ddy d n g la mpt dilu tdt giup nha dau tu nhan bilt rd hon d c loai hdng hoa tdt, xau tren ttij tardng, ft nhat la ttong thoi diem nay Ngdi ra, d e
"kinh" dau tu khlc nhu: vang, bat ddng san... cung dd kim hap dan di nhilu bdi ttij tardng vang thi dien biln ttiat ttiudng, ttij trudng bat dpng san van dang ttong ttidi ky Iram lang", tilm d'n rat nhilu ylu td rui ro.
Tai sao d nhung ttidng tin tdt nhu vay ma TTCKVN van sut giam liln tuc?
Tra Idi d u hdi nly, Chj Trjnh Tuylt Mai - mdt nha dau tu chdng khodn d kinh nghiem lau nam cho bilt: "Theo tdi, d le TTCKVN sut giam 11 do anh hudng tiir su suy thoai cua TTCK toan cau. Anh ttiay day, may phien giao djch gan day, hau hit chi sd ehUng kholn ehinh eua d e TTCK Idn trdn thi gidi diu mat diem. Cd le vide mat diem dd Id do nha dau tu ttIn thi gidi d n hoai nghi v l d c k l hoad va nhdng giai phap dng edu thj ttudng tai ehinh ti'n dung eiia d e ehinh phu hp. Cdn v l TTCK Viet Nam, theo tdi tdi day se tilp tiic phan hoa manh d v l d c loai hlng hoa va nha dau tu. Gan day, nha dau tu nude ngdi 'Xa hang" va nJt vdn ra khd nhilu nIn d n g anh hudng k5n din tim ly nha dau tu ttong nude, nhung cung khdng ttiat su dang lo ngai, bdi su "lao ddc" hiln nay khdng phai bdi ylu td ndi tai d a ttij ttudng la xau. Thj tardng hiln da xudng rat thap, van d l ddi vdi nhi dau tu ttong nude bay gid la xem "bat day" vao ttidi diem nao ma thdi". Tuy ndi nhu vay, nhung ehfnh Chj Mai d n g dat ra mdt d u hdi bang quo: "khdng bilt hdm nay, nha dau tu nude ngoai ban ra bao nhilu?".
Day cung la mdt minh ddng d a vile ddu tu ttieo tam ly "bay din" ttIn ttij ttudng, d khlc dang la ttong bdi dnh hi|n nay d nha dau tu d td d d c va nha dau tu d nhan diu thua Id khi ddng diu.
(Xem tiep trang 40)
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Khdng nen thu thue thu nhap doanh nghidp doi vdi hoat dong dau tir trai phieu Chinh phu
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e gdp y viec Idm Luat va cac van ban hudng din thi hanh Luat Thue thu nhap doanh nghiep (sua ddi), Hiep hpi Cac nha dau tu tai chinh Viet Nam (VAFI) da co van ban sd 467/HHDnC vao ngay 12/3/2008 gdi cac co quan huu quan de nghj khong thu thue thu nhap doanh nghiep (TNDN) ddi vOi hoat ddng dau tu trai phieu Chinh phii (dang tren Tap chf Thj trudng Tai ehinh Tien te sd 253 phat hanh ngay 1/4/2008). Tuy nhien cho din thdi diem hien tai, d l nghj nay chua dugc tiep thu tai Du thao Nghj dinh hudng din thi hanh Luat Thue TNDN, vi vay VAFI tiep tuc ed y kien nhu sau:- De xua't khdng thu thue TNDN ddi vOi hoat dpng dau tu vdo TPCP khdng phai la viec xin uu dai miln giam thue cho nha dau tu vao TPCP,
ban chat cua van de la dimg tien ngan sach de ddng thue eho thue TNDN, vay dat ra viec thu thue TNDN lam gi de cho tdn kem tien bac cua nha nude neu xlt v l mat thu tue hanh ehinh?
- Khi dua thue TNDN vao nghiep vu kinh doanh TPCP se lam cho iai suit huy dpng ciia TPCP tang len khoang 2%/nam, va ft nhieu tie dpng len mat bang huy dpng vdn ciia he thdng ngan hang thuong mai (tuy theo qui mP huy ddng TPCP cua Bp Tdi ehinh, dieu nay khdng tdt eho su phat trien cua thj trudng trai phieu cung nhu anh hudng den chi'nh sach lai sua't CO ban ciia Ngan hang nha nuOc).
- Trong van ban 467, VAFI da phan tich rat ky su bat Igi trong vide tinh thue TNDN vao hoat ddng kinh doanh TPCP va dieu nay khdng phu
hgp vdi thdng Id phd bien cua t h i gidi.
Cic nha hoach djnh ehinh sach can phai dat eau hdi rang "Tai sao VN lai di nguge lai vdi thdng le pho bien tren the gidi va vi sao thi trudng trai phieu VN la thi trudng kem phat trien nhit the gidi"?
- Hien cd 1 dieu mdu thudn la trong Luat thue thu nhap ca nhan, nha dau tu ca nhan dugc midn giam thul khi dau tu vdo TPCP, edn theo Du thao Nghj djnh hudng din thi hdnh Luat thul TNDN thi vide dau tU vlo TPCP se bj tinh thue TNDN?
- Td phan tich tren, VAFI d l nghj:
+ UBCKNN can cd gdp y eu the cho van de neu tren;
+ NHNNVN cung can cd van ban gdp y vdi Bd Tai ehinh ve van de neu tren de tao su thuan Igi trong xdy dung chinh sach lai suit co bana
iPhan ung tam ly...
(Tiep theo trang 20)Cung trong chieu huong lac quan, mpt nhan vien giao djch ciia (3dng ty chUng khoan Ngan hang Cdng Thuang nhan djnh: "ThOi diem nay, sd lugng nha dau tu din san khdng he giam, nhung khdi lugng dat lenh mua/ban khdng nhieu. Cd le ho dang cho dgi thoi co thdi. Tdi khdng thay d nhieu su lo lang hay hdt hoang tu phia d c nha dau tu".
Ben canh nhOng nguoi d tinh tiian lac quan, binh than cho dgi, till cung ed khdng ft nguoi d m tiia'y sdt rupt, lo lang khi ttij trudng dng ngay dng am dam. Anh Nguyen Quang Thang- nguoi dang nam giO mot sd luong ed phieu kha Idn ciia SSI, HPG, VIC... da than thd vd\ PA/ Thj trudng Tdi chinh- Tiln te: "Dudi gde dp mdt nha dau tu chung khoan ai ma chang tha'y "xdt" khi mdi ngay qua di, sd tiln tiong tai khoan lai "ngdt" bdt mpt it. Ban ra till khdng dn do gia qua thap, d n neu tiep tue mua vao nhd lai bat torgt "day" va hung nhtjmg d philu d t Id thi tinh hinh d n te hon. Co le viec lam tdt nhat ciia tdi luc ndy la ngdi im va ttieo ddi nhung dien biln tilp theo ciia thj tardng".
IHl 1R10NG IAI CHlNH IlfN If • SC 21(271) • 1 /11/2008
LI^U THU6C NAO C H O TTCKVN?
De phanh da lao ddc cua TTCKVN va giiip till trudng hdi phuc, ehac chan can phai thuc hien nhieu bien phap mpt dch ddng bp, kip thai. Ngoai viec trdng chO nhung ttidng tin tdt tu nen kinh te the gidi, Chinh phii can phai tiep tuc day manh hon nQa viec thuc hien cac giai phap chdng lam phit va phat trien kinh t l xa hdi theo hudng ben vung nhu da trinh trude Qudc hpi, dac biet la d c van de:
giam chi sd gia tieu dung, ha lai suit tin dung, dn dinh ty gia, tao su "can bang"
hgp ly trong can can thuang mai, co co che, chinh sach de giai ngan hieu qua d c ngudn vdn dau tu true tiep nude ngoai, tao dilu kien thuan Igi cho d c doanh nghiep trong hoat dpng san xuat kinh doanh, xuat kha'u hang hoa... Ben canh do, UBCKNN d n bam sat nhung dien bien ciia TTCK the gidi, tham khao nhurng bien phap ung phd ciia d c TTCK Idn, tU do ed nhurng su can thiep mang tinh ky thuat phti hgp vOi tinh hinh thuc tien ciia TTCK Viet Nam de tao su on dinh va bao
dam an toan cho thj truOng, khdng loai tid viec tai ap dung bien phap "eo" bien dd giao dich, tham chf tam ngung giao djch nhu TTCK Nga neu thj truOng dien biln qua xau, Cac doanh nghiep mem yIt cung d n phai ciing cd, sap xIp lai bd may td chUe, nhdn su theo hudng tinh gpn, nang dpng, linh hoat va sang tao trong cdng tie quan trj, dilu hanh san xua't kinh doanh, d t giam mpi chi phi khdng can thilt de git; vOmg hidu qua hoat ddng.
Cung vdi su nd luc eiia Chinh phii, d c CO quan chdc nang va d c doanh nghiep niem yIt, tiong thoi diem nay, d c nha dau tu d n phai dn djnh tam ly, han che tdi da nhtrng tie ddng tU tinh hinh till gidi, khdng nen phu thupc qua nhilu vao d c nha dau tu nude ngoai, ddng ttidi d n phai dat niem tin cao dd vao nhiimg ylu td npi tai, nhurng ti'ien vgng eiia nIn kinh t l Viet Nam va hit sde tinh tlo tiong vile nam bat CO hpi dau tu...
Mdt khi d su phdi hgp ddng bd, nhjp nhdng, hieu qua d a tat d d c nhan td tren, ehac chin, TTCKVN se chan dugc da "roi", tung bude hdi phuc va phat tiien trd laB
MINH PHUDNG
