Mô hình đàn nhạn bay và vị trí của Nhật Bản trong mạng lưới sản xuất vùng Đông á.

TRONG MANG LlTOI SAN XUAT VUNG DONG A

DOONG MINH TUAN'

J ^ h u vuc Ddng A cd sir da diing ve cac j£m,the che chinh tri, kinh te - xa hdi va van boa va cd sir chenh lech ve trinh do phat trien kinh te rai Idn. Do viiy, mang ludi san xuat cua khu vuc nay cung khac biet ve ca ban so vdi cac khu vuc khac tren the gidi nhu EU d Chau Au va NAFTA d Biic My. Dd chinh la sir hgp tac dua tren miing ludi siin xuai phi chinh thirc (Informal economic networks) giua cac nude, dac biet la giua Nhat Biin vdi cac nude khac trong khu vuc.

Tir diiu nhung nam 1970 deii niiy, miing ludi Siin xuiit nay da tiio nen sir hgp tac va giin kei mdi each hei sire chat che thdng qua diiu tu true tiep va hoiit ddng thuang miii va dii gdp phiin tiio nen su than ky trong tang trudng kinh te ciia cac nude trong khu vuc. Trong bdi canh loan ciiu boa va hdi nhiip kinh te hien nay. niiing san xuiit vung tren van dugc xem nhu hi ca sd cho hgp tac va lien kei khu vuc ddng thdi cung gdp phiin viio sir phat trien kinh te hei sdc nang ddng cua khu vuc niiy. Do vay, viec khiio sat va phan tich miing Siin xuiit Ddng A cung nhu vi tri. vai trd ciia cac nude Idn, diic biet la Nhat Ban trong khu vuc la cd y nghia quan trgng nham tang cudng su tham gia mdt each cd hieu quii ciia cac nude dang phat trien nhu Viet Nam Viio phan cdng lao ddng va lien kei khu vuc hien nay .

1. Mdt sd luan thuyet chu yeu ve mang siin xuat Ddng A

Miing Siin xuiit viing la he thdng cac doiinh nghiep cd phiim vi hoiit ddng san xuiit vugt khdi bien gidi mdt qudc gia. He thdng nay dugc ggi la "m;.ing ludi san xuai" vi chiing dugc duii tren su phan cdng hio ddng qudc te trong qua tiinh sim xuat. Ippev Yiimiizawa ggi he thdng niiy la he thdng phan cdng hio ddng qudc Ic {MWdAMd^ y N

^7 — ^ ) . trong dd trung tam ciia miing ludi nay la cac cdng ty da qudc gia (MNCs) tir cac nude cdng nghiep phat trien. Cac bd phim ciiu thanh ciia miing ludi siin xuiit la sd huu doanh nghiep vii cac quan he phi sd bti'u.

Hinh thirc sd huu doanh nghiep bao gdm cac cdng ty con ciia ciic MNCs. xi nghiep lien doanh.... Hinh thirc quan he phi ad hiru biio gdm sir phan bd siin xuiii. san xuat hgp tac.

miiu dich bu tru'. cung cap thiei bi va nguyen vat lieu theo hinh thii'c cho thue va mua siin phiim. Tiit ca cac hinh thuc nay deu dua tren cac mdi lien kei kinh te dai hiin nhu chi dao dieu phdi. trang bi cdng nghe va cung cap nguyen viit lieu, va chi tiei san phiim.

a. Md hinh ddn nhan heiy

Miing ludi san xuiit Ddng A chii yeu dugc dinh hinh theo md hinh "dan nhiin bay""' dua tren sir phan cdng lao ddng qudc te trong

Tien si. Vien Nuliien ciiu Done Bac A

' " Tham kiiao Duong Minh Tuan: "Mo hinh ddn nhan box: t/oc thuyet ciiicii lifr'c lioni^ yen ciia Nhdl tkin iron:;

lio'p tdc kinh Ic viini; fJoni; A". Tap chi' Nghien cuu Nhat KM \a Dona Bac .\'\ scS. 2007

NGHIEN Cdu OONG BflC fl. SO 7(89) 7-2008 13

Nghien citu khoa hgc

N'Ling. Md hinh nay ban diiu md ta md hinh cdng nghiep boa ciia mdt nude phat trieii.

nhung sau dd nd dugc md rdng phiim vi iip dung cho md hinh cdng nghiep boa. phat trien miing ludi san xuiit va hgp tac trong khu vuc. Nhung diem chii yeu ciia lu(in Ihuyei nay ddi vdi hgp tac viing hi:

-f- Cac nude kem phat trien ban cd the hgc tir cac nude tien tieii thdng qua nhiip khiiu nhung Siin phiim va siin xuiit hang boa cho nhu ciiu trong nude va xuiit khiiu hang hoii dd ra nude ngoai va cudi ciing lii nhiip khiiu trd liii Ciic siin phiim tir cac nude kem phat trieii hon (//////; thiiv eef hdn ciia md hinh ddn nhan hay).

-f- Md hinh nay da tiio nen nhung chuyen bien thuc chiit ciia nen kinh te thdng qua vice lap liii tiing budc cimg mdt chu ky tCr sir dung cac cdng nghe dung nhieu liio ddng deii cdng nghe sii' dung nhiCu vdn vii cudi cung lii phiit trien Ciic ngiinh cdng nghiep cd hiim lugng tri thii'c va cdng nghe cao ban (////;// thii'e hidn the eiia md hinh ddn nhan heiy)

+ Md hinh cdng nghiep boa mil Nhiil Biui dii trai qua se dugc lap hii tir nen kinh tc nay deii nen kinh te khac trong viing thdng qua chuyen giao cdng nghe va diiu tu true tiep {khia egnli qiie'ie te eiia elan nhan hay)'"'.

Su hgp tac va phat trien viing theo md hinh nay cd the hinh dung dua tren ba nhdm nhiin bay theo trinh tu rugt dudi: thir nhitt la Nhat Biin, thii' hai la cac nude NICs va tiep theo la cac nude ASEAN 4 tuang iing vdi Igi the so sanh ciia cac nude nay trong vLing. Cac nganh cdng nghiep cung chuyen bieii mdt each tuang iing vdi cac Igi the so sanh tren tir cac nganh su' dung nhieu lao

ddng deii cac nganh sii' dung nhieu tri thii'c va cdng nghe. Trong ddi hinh bay tren. mdi con nhi.in deu nhiin dugc tii' Nhin Biui mdt co ciiu cdng nghiep tuang tu nhu ciia Nhiit Biin nhung vdi do tr*} thdi gian Idn ban va dcii mdt thdi gian nhiit dinh ca ciiu cdng nghiep va thuang miii vung cd tinh bo xung kin nhau cung se dugc hinh thanh '''.

Tren thuc te, cac nen kinh te Ddng A da tiio nen mdt chudi tang trudng cao thich irng dugc vdi sir chuyen dich ca ciiu ciia nen kinh tc Nhiit Biin. Diic bicl tir giua nhOng nam

1980 vdi sir sut giiim ciia ddng yen Nhiit.

FDl ciia Nhiil Biin tang niiinh trong viing dii thiic diiy tang trudng hudng theo xuiit khiiu tir cac nude NICs dCMi cac nude ASEAN 4.

FDl ciia Nhiit Biin theo md hinh dan nhiin bay da chuyen dich nhO'ng ngiuih cdng nghiep tir ciip do niiy deii ciip do khiic (tir sir dung nhieu lao dong den sir dung nhieu cdng nghe) neu nganh nay d Nhiit Biin bi miit Igi the Ciinh tranh do vice nang cao trinh do cdng nghe. thi Ciic nganh cdng nghiep d cac nude Ddng A khac liii cd dugc nhung Igi the so sanh nay. 0 day. EDI dugc xem la hinh thiic chii yeu ciia sir phat trien miing ludi san xuiit viing tren.

h. Mdt sii liiejn thuyet khdc ve mgng sdn xiid't E)dng A

Cac ly thuyet truyen thdng khac nhu thuyet Igi the tuong ddi trong thuong mai qudc te van phat huy gia tri ciia nd trong viec phan tich md binh san xuat va thuong niiii d Ddng A. Tuy nhien. khi cac mang ludi san xuat qudc te d ciip do ciio dugc hinh thiinh

•" Kojima Kiyoshi (1997): "|iV-li;|lJ:i'i .ii^f "i'Mg)j(i".|ll; Vr^

^'i;i)Tiii'iiiMi.March, tr 28.

' " Giipiii Robeit (2000): "The challen:.ic of ;d(>hal capitalism: ilic worrhl cconiny in the 21 si century".

Princeton U.P Kojiina Kiyoslii (1997): '•\\'Wi\'i.'ii V.'"ii-'^![

';(*)j!i'MII;V/-Ti^?;f,i1'„,m.Marcli.

14 NGHIEN Cdu OONG BflC fl. SO 7 ( 8 9 ) 7 - 2 0 0 8

ihi mdt sd nhung luiin thuyci kinh te khac Cling can dugc xem xet va de cap den:

Tririrc het. dd la giai thich sir phat trien cua phan cdng lao ddng dua tren quy trinh san xuiit ban la dua theo sir phan cdng theo nganh va quy trinh nay dugc dua tren nhirng luan thuyet kinh te nhat dinh, trong dd luiin diem phan doan san xuiit dugc xem la co sd quan trgng cho sir giai thich tren.

Deardorff da dinh ngliTa phan doan san xuiit la "chia tach mdt qua trinh san xuat thanh hai hay nhieu cdng doan dugc thuc hien d nhirng dia diem khac nhau nhung deu hudng den san xuat san pham cudi ciing"* *.

Trong quy trinh san xuat tren. neu bd tri cac khdi san xuat mdt each tach biet ve mat dja ly nhu giua Nhiit Ban, Malaysia, va Trung Qudc thi cd the tiet kiem dugc tdng chi phi san xuat. Vice phan doan san xuat cd hieu quii khi chi phi cac lien ket dich vu (SL) ket ndi giua cac khdi san xiidt (PB) thiip d miic nhiit dinh. Tuy nhien, ndi chung qua trinh toiin cau boa se diin dcMi giam chi phi SL va cho phep cac doanh nghiep trong nhieu nganh cdng nghiep dugc phan doiin cac PB ciia hg ban nua de giam tdng chi phi san xuat. Cac tac ddng ciia phan doan va tap trung ddi khi dien ra theo hudng ngugc chieu nhau, nhung thuc tc toan cau boa se thiic diiy ddng thdi ca hai qua trinh nay. Dieu niiy se dua den mot thuc trang la mdt sd nude dugc hirdng dang ke thanh qua ciia toiin cau boa trong khi nhiing nude khac thi khdng dugc hudng cac thanh qua dd.

Ludn thuyet thu hai la sir giai thich co che lijp trung boa siin xuiil d Ddng A. Giin day.

'^' DeardoilT. A.V. (2001): "Frai^inentaiion in simple trade iiiodel.s". Nortii Ameican Journal of ecoiiniics and r-inaiice.

12: 121-1.'^7

luiin thuyet nay dugc hinh thanh tir cac ly thuyet v6 thuong niiii va dia ly. Diic biet la trong bdi canh ciia Ddng A. cd it nhat la hai yeu td tiio nen nhung tac ddng tich cue ciia tiip trung boa. Trong dd. nhiin td diiu la do Ciic chi phi HLMI kit dich vu (SL) phu thude chii y£'u vao nang luc ciia co sd bii tang giao thdng va buu chinh vien thdng. Yeu td khac la nhirng lira chgn dia diem mdt each linh boat ciia cac cdng ty da qudc gia (MNEs).

Theo mdt y nghia nao dd. sir phan doan va tap trung boa siin xuiit tai cac dja diem dugc lua chgn cd the cd nghTa trai ngugc nhau nhat djnh. nhirng tren thuc te cac MNEs da phcit huy ddng thdi dugc ca hai yeu td tren.

Phan doan d muc ciio nhat khi cac thiet bi, linh kien deu cd cac ban thiet ke chuan va thdi gian phan phdi cac thiet bi va linh kien niiy khdng qua khiit khe. Trong nhung trudng hgp nay. MNEs tim kiem cac nha cung Ciip cd mirc gia thap nhat tren thi trudng qudc te. Mat khac, MNEs se lira chgn cac nha cung cap cd vi tri dia ly gan ban khi hg phai thay ddi cac ban thiet ke ky thuat ddi vdi cac thiet bi, may mdc hoac khi thdi hiin giao hang cd y nghia quan trgng, cap thiet ban.

Ludn thuyet thir ba la su giai thich md hinh ciia cac giao djcb ndi bd d ciip do cao trong mang ludi san xuat/pban phdi qudc te.

Cac cdng ty dua ra quyet dinh trong phiim vi trong nude va qudc te trong cung thdi gian.

Hoat ddng nao dugc thuc hien trong nude va hoiit ddng nao cd the dugc thuc hien d nude ngoai hi cd y nghia hei sire quan trong trong vice tiip trung cac ngudn luc viio cac viing ma doanh nghiep da cd ca sd viit chiit va nang lire sim xuiit nhiit dinh. Sir tdn tiii ciia cac ddi tac kinh doanh tiem naim khac nhau

NGHIEN CCJfU DONG BflC fl. SO 7(89) 7-2008 15

Nghien citu khoa hgc

va chi phi giao djch thap trong ndi bd doanh nghiep da dem hii nhOng ca hdi lua chgn nang ddng ban cho cac doanh nghiep. 0 Ddng A. cac hgp ddng san xuiit d\\k bi ngudn (OEM) ciing nhu su phat trien ciia cac doanh nghiep EMS (he thdng san xuat dien tu) the hien mot each kha rd ret nhirng luan thii)'ct niiy.

2. Mot sd diic dicni chu yen cua mang Siin xuiit Ddng A

+ Md hinh thuang niiii qudc te ciia cac nude Ddng A da chuyen dich mdt each nhanh chdng iCr thuang miii mdt chieu sang thuong niiii ndi bd ngiinh tir diiu nhung nam

1990.

Cho dcii nhung nam 1980 md hinh thuang niiii qudc te d Ddng A Viln chii yeii la md hinh thuong miii Biic - Nam. tiic la ciic nude kem phat trien hon xuiil khiiu cac sim phiim chii yeu dugc sim xuiil tCr cac ngudn tai nguyen ihicn nhien trong khi dd cac nude phat iricn nhu Nhiit Biin xuiii khiiu cac san phiim cd hiim lugng vdn va cdng nghe cao.

Cac luiin diem ciia md hinh dan nhiin bay va CLia FDL thuong niiii dii giiii thich sir chuyen dich Igi the ve so sanh ciia cac nganh cdng nghiep trong thdi ky niiy'". Trong nhOng nam 1990 cac nude dang phat trien Ddng A bat diiu xuiit khiiu cac siin phiim cdng nghiep.

diic biet hi ca khi may mdc, trong dd thuang mai ndi bd ngiinh cdng nghiep IT ngay cang trd nen quan trgng.

+ Hiiu hei thuang niiii ndi bd nganh cdng nghiep (ITT) d cac nude Ddng A la theo chieu dgc ban la theo chieu ngang.

Su phan boa ciia ITT thanh thuang miii theo chieu dgc va chieu ngang du'a tren dan gia ciia xuiit khiiu va nhiip khiiu theo miic phan loiii hang boa da the hien mdt thuc te hi hiiu hei ITT ciia cac nude Ddng A la theo chieu dgc va ty trgng ciia ITT theo chieu ngang hi riit thiip. Ty trgng ciia ITT theo chieu dgc (linh kien) trong viing da tang tir

100 ty USD nam 1990 dkn ban 200 ty nam 1996, va 350 ty USD nam 2000. 'fy trgng ciia IT'f theo chieu dgc theo cac nam tuong tu la tren 100 ty USD, 230 ty va 265 ty USD.

irong khi dd ITT (linh kien) theo chieu ngang va ITT theo chieu ngang t'-ong cac nam tren la 30 ty USD, 70 ty, 80 ty USD va 32 ty USD. 65 ty. 60 ty USD "''. Quan siit nay the hien su ddi liip Idn vdi trudng hgp cac nude EU, trong dd ITT theo chieu ngang chicin mot ty trgng Idn trong tong khdi lugng thuong niiii dugc giao dich.

-I- He thdng miing ludi khu vuc Ddng A la mdt hinh thii'c ciia licMi kei kinh te. Hinh thiic lien kei niiy khac vdi lien kei chfnh thirc dugc thuc hien thdng qua cac to chiic lien kei khu vuc va cac hiep dinh hgp tac toiui dien giua cac nude va trong toan khu vuc. Hinh thirc lien ket nay cd mdt sd diic trung sau:

- Dugc dinh hudng bdi thi trudng: biit cir sir lien kei nao dem hii Igi nhuim cudi ciing se dua den su hinh thanh lien kei khdng chfnh thuc ... cdn cac yeu td khac chi hd trg cho qua trinh lien kei. Dieu nay khac biet vdi lien kei chfnh thiic, trong dd nhieu quyei dinh dugc dinh hudng bdi cac yeu td chfnh tri va kinh te - xa hdi khac .

'" Kojnna K. (2000). The •pyini; i^ee.u-'' model of Asian "' Fukao K.. Ishido H.. Ito K. (200.^). Veriical intra- cconomic development: Oris^in. theoreiical extensions. mdii.slrx trade andjoreiqn direct investment in East Asia, and re:.iional policy implications. Journal of Asian Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 17. p.

l-x'ononiics 11. p. 37.'i 401. 468-506.

16

NGHIEN Cdu DONG BflC fl. SO 7 ( 8 9 ) 7 - 2 0 0 8

- Dugc dieu phdi bcVi tu nhan: Trong lift cii Ciic trudng hgp I ILMI kei khdng chfnh thirc.

cac hoiit ddng lien kei tren thuc te ddu do tu nhan thuc hien. thieu vang hgp tiic lien chfnh phii. Miing ludi nay deu phu thude d nhu'ng miic do khac nhau. viio nhung quan he cii nhan do nhung anh hudng sau siic ciia van hoa Vii truyen thdng d cac nude Ddng A. Sir phu thude liin nhau ngiiy cang gia tang nhu ciiu trao doi. giao luu giira Ciic qudc gia trong vLing.

- Miing san xuiit md: Miing san xuiit theo chieu dgc d ciip do cao dugc dien ra d Ddng A Viio nhO'ng nam 1990. Miing ludi nay phiit IriC'n trong nhieu nganh cdng nghiep khac nhau nhinig phat trien mdt each niiinh mc nhiil Cii vc lugng vii vc chiii irong nganh che liU) iiiiiy ndi chung. dd dien lir. thiei bi vim liii, niiiy chfnh xac. Cac nganh cdng nghiep chc liio bao gdm mdt phiin Idn ciic cdng doiiii sim xuiii ihco chieu doc vii ciic cdng ly d Ddng A bao gdm ca ciic cdng ly ciia Nhiil Biin cd Igi the Ciiiih Uiinli trong vice nam giu Ciic day chuyen sim xuiil ihco chieu doc Hien nay iiiiing ludi san xuiit d Ddng A mang tfnh kha ndi trgi. tac ddng trong phiim vi Idn ddi vdi cac nude trong khu vuc va ciip do cao trong ca ciiu ciia niiing ludi nay the hien d chd bao gdm ca cac giao dich trong ndi bd doanh nghiep va giao dich tren thi iru'dng.

Hiiu hei cac nude Ddng A deu cd ty trgng xuiii khiiu chi tiei may mdc ciio tu' 60 - 80%

trong tdng gia tri xuiii khiiu nam 2003 nhu Singapo. Malayxia. Han Qudc. Thiii Lan. Ty trong nay ciia Trung Qudc d nuic tren 45%

lire giin nhu d mirc trung binh va ty trgng nhiip khiiu chi lici niiiy va thiei bi van Ciio

han xuiit khiiu. Tuy nhien. nude nay cOng dang tang cudng chuyen dich co ciiu xuiii khiiu cd ty trgng Iinh kien. thiei bi cao hon'^'.

Nhu viiy miing ludi san xuiit d Ddng A khdng dan thuiin la giao dich thuang niiii mot chieu dua tren su khac biet trong vice huy ddng cac ngudn luc. ma thuc ra la cac diiy chuyen san xuiit theo chieu dgc dugc thuc hien trong toiui bo niiing san xuiit. Do viiy. viec phan doiin cac qua trinh san xuiit Cling la mdt ndi dung tiit ycii. Vice giam chi phf dich VLi do tien bd cdng nghe va cai thien nidi trudng. the chc da lam cho sir phan doiin trd nen cd tfnh khii thi ban. Ciic yeu td khac ciia Igi the vc mat vi trf nhu chi phf dich vu va hieu quii ciia cac khu cdng nghiep ngay Ciing cd anh hudng gia tang den cac quyci dinh lua chgn dia diem ditu tu ciia ciic cdng ly da qudc gia.

+ Ciic Irung tam cdng nghiep dugc hinh thiinh lu Ddng A: cac Irung tiim cdng nghiep niiy ndi chung dugc bat diiu vdi su tfch luy cua Ciic cdng ly xuyen qudc gia trong ITnh vuc co' khf Vii sau dd la sir phat trien nhu la mdt su gan kei giua cac cdng ty nay va cac doanh nghiep biui xir dugc sir hd trg bdi chieii luge phat trien ciia cac nude sd tiii va su phiit trien ciia co sd hii tiing. Cac trung tam cdng nghiep hay nhO'ng diiu mdi cdng nghiep da bat diiu dugc phat tridn d Ddng A.

Didn hinh hi hanh lang Thugng Hai - cac tinh phfa ddng Trung Qudc va cac vung phu cim d Trung Qudc. Sannut Prakan. viing ven bien phfa ddng d Thai Lan, dao Pcnang va Shah Alain d Malayxia. Cac trung tam cdng

"' Kimura F.. Ando M. (200.^). The economic miahsis of inlernalKmal production I dislribiilioii networks in TasI Asia and Latin America: The implicalion of rei;itimil trade arrair.;emenls. Business and Pohlics 7.

NGHIEN ecru OONQ BflC fl, SO 7(89) 7-2008 17

1

Ngh ien citu khoa hgc

nghi6p phat tridn khdng chi biio gdm cac doanh nghiep ciia rieng ciic cdng ty xuyen qudc gia mil cdn thudng dugc kei hgp vdi cac doanh nghiep ban xii'.

3. Vai trd cua Nhat Biin vii sir mdi ndi len ciia Trung qudc ddi vdi mang siin xuiit Dong A

+ Xet ve quy md va ty trgng ciia cac doanh nghiep Nhiit Biui d cac nude trong khu vuc

Mac dii cac sd lieu thdng ke khdng the hien dugc hoan toan thuc chiit cac quan he ciia cac doanh nghiep nhung phiin nay dua ra nhung sd lieu vc hoiit ddng ciia cac doanh nghiep nhiim liim rd ca che hoiit ddng ciia m;.iiig ludi siin xuiit d Ddng A va vi trf ciia cac doiinh nghiep Nhat Biin trong miing ludi san xuiit tren thdng qua vice xem xet cac so lieu vi md ciia cac doanh nghiep Nhiit Biin.

Niim 2000. 3.773 trong sd 27.655 cdng ty tiii Nhiit Biin cd 18.943 chi nhanh nude ngoai.

Trong sd cac cdng ty nay. 2.994 cdng ly cd 10.224 chi nbiinh d Ddng A. Cd nghia hi.

80% cac cdng ty Nhiit Ban ra nude ngoai cd ft nhiit mdt chi nhanh d Ddng A. va 54% chi nhanh nude ngoai ciia cac cdng ty Nhiit dugc dat tiii Ddng A.

Anh hudng ciia hoiit ddng siin xuiit ciia cac doanh nghiep nay d Ddng A dugc the hien trong md hinh hoiU ddng cac chi nhanh d Ddng A theo nganh. dieu nay hoan toan khac biet so vdi cac md hinh ddi vdi cac chi nhanh d Bac My va Chau Au. (J Ddng A.

60% chi nhanh trong khu vuc la chi nhanh Siin xuiit. khdng tfnh den nganh ciia cac cdng ty me ciia cac chi nhanh nay. trong khi dd chi nhanh siin xuiit tiii Biic My va Chau Au liin lugt chi la 38% va 31%. 6 Ddng A. sd cac chi nhanh thuc te da tang Ien trong 5

niim (1995-2000) tii' con sd 9.132 thiinh 10.224 trong khi con sd niiy giiun tii' 3.928 xudng 3.499 d Biic My va tir 3.019 xudng 2.913 d Chiiu Au'".

-h Xet theo ty trgng va quy md diiu tu vii thuang miii ciia Trung Qudc vdi cac nude khac trong khu vuc

Su tham gia mdt each dang ke' ciia Trung Qudc viio miing ludi siin xuat viing chii yeu diCn ra trong mdt sd ITnh vuc cdng nghe nhiil dinh. trong do Trung Qudc chuyen liip rap vii Siin xuiit cac Iinh kien va ban siin pham. Dieu niiy cung dugc the hien trong cac nghien ciiu ve sir phan cdng siin xuai d Ddng A the hien d thuang niiii giao dich ddi vdi cac Iinh kien.

thiei bi vdn dugc xem la hoiU ddng sdi ddng nhiit d Ddng A. Theo sir phan dinh ciia cac tac gia nay. trong sd nude siin xuiit Iinh kien (nude cd ca ciiu thuong miii xuai sieu vc Iinh kien) va cac nude liip rap Iinh kien (cac nude cd CO Cii'u thuong niiii nhiip sieu ve linh kien).

Trung Qudc rd rang thude cac nude liip rap linh kien. gidng nhu mdt sd nude Ddng A cd thu nhiip thiip khac (Indonexia. Thai Lan.

Malayxia).

Su tham gia ciia Trung Qudc >rong miing san xuiit khu vuc khdng chi the hien d su gia tang ve lugng cung nhu su md rdng quy md.

ty trgng diiu tu ma cdn dugc the hien ca vc tiinh do cdng nghe ciia cac siin phiim xuiit khiiu CLia Trung Qudc ddi vdi cac nude trong miing ludi siin xuiit Ddng A. Sir phan tfch nay sir dung su phan loiii cac siin phiim chiit lugng cao CEP II dua tren cac nghien ciiu ciia

'" Theo cac so lieu tir Kimura P.. Ando M. (200.S). The economic analysis of international rodLiction / distribution networks in East Asia and Latin America: The implication of regional trade arrangements. Business and Politics 7.

18 NGHIEN ecru OONG BflC fl. SO 7 ( 8 9 ) 7-2008

OECD va Chau Au phan dinh sir khac biet giOa cac san phiim cd hiim lugng cdng nghe cao vdi Ciic san phiim khac.

Nam 2002. nhiip khiiu cac san phiim cdng nghe cao chicin 15% nhiip khiiu ciia Trung Qudc va xuiit khiiu cac siui phiim nay la 12%

(nam 1997 cac ty trgng nay la 11% va 7%).

Ciic san phiim cdng nghe ciio chiem ti le dang kc trong ca ciiu thuang niiii neu so sanh vdi ciic nude dang phat trien. dac biet la tu' nam

1997 den Uiiy.

Hiim lugng cdng nghe Ciio ciia xuiit khiiu Trung Qudc cd the dugc giiii thich biing nhiip khiiu cdng nghe cao ciia nude nay, mot lugng Idn nhiip khiiu cac sim phiim cdng nghe cao ciui Trung Qudc (ban mot nira) bao gdm ciic chi lici, thiei bi. sau dd dc sim xuiii ra cac sim phiiiii cho xuiit khiiu. Hiiu hei cac siin phiim cdng nghe cao xuiit khiiu ciia Trung Qudc hi Ciic thiei bi. linh kien may. dieu nay chiing id Trung Qudc dii ihaiii gia nidi ciich kha diing kc Viio niiing ludi sim xuiii Irong khu vuc.

-I- Xet iheo nidi quan he lu'oiig quan. bd sung giua Nhiit Biui vii Trung Qudc vii ciic nude ASEAN:

Tir nhung liinh bay tren day. nidi quan he kinh tc giin day giu'a Nhiit Biin vii Trung Qudc cung nhu vi trf ciia cac nude nay trong niiing ludi san xuiit ciia khu vuc cd the dugc giiii llifch nhu trong ////;/; /. Trong dd. true hoimh chi niiic do phirc tiip cua cac niiit hiuig xuiii khiiu va true tung chi khdi lugng xuiit khiiu (thay cho ty le) tuang irng \'di cac milt hiing xuiit khiiu d nuic do phirc tiip khac nhau.

Hoiit ddng xuiit khiiu ciia nidt nude cd the dugc xem xet thdng qua sir phan bd giua cac Siin phiim cd mirc do phirc tiip khac nhau tir Siin phiim cdng nghe thiip deii san phiim cdng nghe cao. Su phan bd cho hoiit dgng xuiii

khiiu ciia Nhiit Ban du kicMi sc Idn ban so vdi ciia Trung Qudc. Su phan bd nay cung hudng nhieu ban ve phfa ben phai. phan iinh thuc tc sail phiim cdng nghe cao chiem ty Ic Idn ban trong tdng hoiit ddng xuiit khiiu ciia Nhiil Biin. Phiin keo dai ciia dien tfch giua 2 phiin giiio thoa nhau (phiin C trong /7/7//; /) - nhu mdt phiin trong tong xuiii khiiu ciia nidi nude (A ddi \'di Trung Qudc va B ddi vdi Nhiit Biin) hi chi sd ve mirc do ciinh tranh giua hai nude. Dien tfch giao thoa giua 2 phiin cang Idn xet tren ty le phiin tram trong xuiii khiiu ciia Nhiit Biin (dd hi C/B) thi Trung Qudc cang ird thimh mot ddi thii ciuih tranh ngay Ciing gay gal ddi vdi Nhiit Ban. Ngugc hii.

dien tfch phiin giao thoa cimg nhd thi khii nang co ciiu xuiii khiiu ciui Trung Qudc bd sung cho ca ciiii xuiii khiiu ciia Nhiit Biin cimg Idn. Ddi vdi Trung Qudc. niiic do ciinb ininh ciia nude niiy \'di Nhiit Biin dugc tfnh bang C/ A.

Chac chan lugng xuiit khau lir Nhiil Ban Idn hon lugng xuiii khiiu tir Trung Qudc va CO' Ciiu xuiit khiiu cua Nhiil Biui tien tien hon so vdi CO ciiu xuiii khiiu ciia Trung Qudc.

Tuy nhien. Nhiit Biui van td ra lo ngiii rang phiin ciia Trung Qudc dang md rdng nhanh chdng va dang dich chuyen nhanh vc phfa bcMi phiii. Ngugc hii. phan bo cua Nhiit Ban liii khdng thay dcii va trieii vgng khdi dgng liii cd niiiy tang trudng kinh tc trong nude nidi d trong giai doiiii ban diiu. Trudc thuc tc nay. nhieu ngudi d Nhiil Biui biit diiu tin rimg Trung Qudc dii trd thanh mdt ddi Ihii ciiiih tranh dang giidni ddi \'di Nhiit Biui vii trong tuang lai giin Nhiit Ban se bi Trung Qudc chinh phuc. Tht.ic ra. "nguy ca" Trung Qudc chi hi Ciich ndi dan thuiin dien tii tam Iv lo

NGHIEN C(jru DONG BflC fl. SO 7(89) 7-2008 19

Nghien citu khoa hgc

Quy

1110

xuai khiiu

Hinh 1: Canh tranh giua Trung Qudc va Nhat Ban Nhat Ban (B)

Chi sd phirc tap ciia Siin phaim

CnncT nohp than Cong nghe cao

Biing 1: Canh tranh cua mdt sd nude Ddng A vol Trung Qudc tren thi trudng My

Nhiit Biin NlEs: Hiin Qudc Dai Loan

Hong Kdng Singapo ASEAN: Indonesia

Malaysia Philippines Thai Lan

1990 3.0%

24.0%

26.7%o 42.5%

14.8%

85.3%o 37.1%o 46.3%

42.2%

1995 8.3%f) 27.1%

38.7%o 50.5%o 19.2%

85.5%) 38.9%o 47.8%o 56.3%

2000 16.3%o 31.5%

48.5%) 55.9%) 35.8%o 82.8%o 48.7%o A6.\%

65.4%«

Nguon: Kimura, Fiikunari (2003) "Fragmenteition and Agglomeration Matter:

Japanese Multinationals in Latin America and East Asia." NortliAmerican Journal of Econe)mics and Finance

Mile dii tong khdi lugng xuai khiiu tii' vdi nhau - cung nhu su khac biet to Idn trong Trung Qudc dang tang nhung nhung san miic do phat trien kinh te ciia 2 qudc gia la phaim yeu ciiu nhieu lao ddng van chiem co sd cho nhung danh gia nay.

phiin Idn trong co cau xuai khau ciia nude Cd hai yeu td bo sung ciin dugc tfnh toan nay vii mirc do Ciinh tranh vdi Nhiit Biin hien di danh gia chfnh xac ban miic do canh nay chua phiii la cao. Rd rang ca cau xuat t ^ n h giira 2 qudc gia nay. Trudc bet, miic dii khiiu ciia Trung Qudc va Nhat Biin dang bo "hieu sim phiim nhai dinh dugc phan loiii sung cho nhau chir khdng phiii canh tranh ^'^"g ^""g "^^t danh muc nhung trong nhieu

20 NGHIEN ecru OONG BflC fl. SO 7 ( 8 9 ) 7-2008

trudng hgp Nhiit Ban chuyen ve nhirng san phiim phuc vu thi trudng cd gia tri gia tiing cao. cdn Trung Qudc chuyen ve nhung san phiim gia thanh thiip. Ti vi la trudng hgp dien hinh. gia ddi vdi cac loiii ti vi cdng nghe cao xuiit khiiu tir Nhat Ban ciio ban nhieu lan so vdi gia ddi vdi cac loiii ti vi tieu chuiin san xuiit d Trung Qudc. San phiim xuiit khiiu ciia Trung Qudc cung chiia dung nhieu thiei bi Vii phu timg nhiip khiiu ban so vdi san phiim xuiit khiiu ciia Nhiit Ban. Ty le nhiip khiiu trong cac san phiim xuiit khiiu tii' Trung Qudc udc tfnh chiem tren 5 0 % va ty le niiy du bao cao ban ddi vdi nhung siin phiim gia tri gia tiing cao so vdi sim phiim gia tri gia tang thiip.

Vi viiy. miic do ciinh tranh thuc te giiia Nhiit Biin va Trung Qudc thiiiii chf d niiic do thiip so vdi cac nude khac trong khu vuc.

NgOiii ra, ciuih tranh giua Nhiil Ban va Trung Qudc chi tdn tiii trong nhung san phiim cd gia tri gia tang tuong ddi thiip. ddi vdi nhung Siin phiim nay Nhiit Ban khdng cdn dugc hudng biii ky Igi the dang ke nao.

Khi so sanh. ciing ciin tfnh toan miic do Ciiiih tranh vdi Trung Qudc ciia cac nen kinh te Ddng A khac. Theo udc tfnh. cac qudc gia ASEAN - vdi miic thu nhiip viin thiip - cd xu hudng Ciuih tranh vdi Trung Qudc nhieu ban so vdi cac nu'dc NlEs Ddng A. nhung nude dang d giai doiin phat trien kinh tc tien tien hon (Biing 1).

Do Viiy. ddi vdi iiiiing ludi san xuiit ciia khu vuc. miic dii cd sir tham gia mdt each tfch cue. vdi quy md Idn ciia Trung Qudc nhirng dudi sir lac ddng ciia phan cdng hio ddng qudc te va sir phat trien ciia R&D nen vi irf va su tham "ia ciia Nhat Biin, cac nude

NICs. Trung Qudc va cac nude ASEAN trong miing ludi siin xuiit khu vuc van theo nhu'ng tiinh tu va ciip do nhiit dinh, trong dd Nhiit Biin va mdt so nude NICs van dugc xem la nhung nude phat trien hang diiu va cd vai trd chii yeii ddi vdi sir phat trien ciia khu vuc. Ddng thdi vdi cac nude ASEAN. Trung Qudc cung ngiiy cang tham gia mdt each sau rdng va ngiiy cang khang dinh dugc vi trf ciia nude nay trong phat trien ciia niiing ludi san xuiit va hgp tiic kinh te trong vung.

TAI LIEU T H A M K H A O

1. Rolatid-Holst. Diivid (2006). "Globed Supply Networks and M tilt i lateral Trade Liiikofics: A Sirtieliiral Analysis e>f East Asia", Working paper. M;iich 31. University of California. Berkeley, CA.

2. Roland-Hoist. Da\id. Jean-Pieirc Verbiest, and Fan Zhai, (200.^1), '^Growth and Trade ihirizons h"' Asia: Loiii^-Term h'oreeasts fe>r Redioiuil Ime;.iralion," ERD Working Paper 74 (NoN'ember). Economics and Research Depaitmcnt, Asian De\elopnient Bank, Manila.

3. Shapiro, Carl, and Hal R. Varian, (1999), lidormatioii Rules: A Stratci^ie Guide to the Network Eeemomy. Boston: Harvard Business School Press.

4. YusuL Shiihid, M. Aiijum Altaf. and Kaoru Nabeshima. eds, 2004, Global Produedon Networkiiii^ and Teelmole>i^ieal Change in East Asia. Washington, DC: World Bank.

5. Kimura. Fukunari, (2003), "'Developmenl Stratciiies for Economies under Glohalisation:Se>iillieast Asia as a New Development ModeC. Forthcoining in Tran Van Hoa and Charles Har\ie. eds.. New Asian Rei^ie>iialism: Responses lo Glohalisatioii and Crises. London: Palgravc.

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