Khu VLFC An Do Dtpcng - Thai Binh Dipcyng TLF do va m a : Tam nhin va hanh dong
NGUYEN BINH LUAN'
Torn tat: Chien luge mdi ve tdm nhin "An Dp Duong - Thdi Binh Duong Tu do vd Md" cua Tong thong D. Trump co muc tieu chinh Id thay cdu true an ninh chdu A - Thdi Bmh Duong trudc day nhdm ngdn chgn Trung Quoe thuc hien tham vong cudng quoc bien (hong qua Sdng kien "Vdnh dai Con dudng" "Tie do " vd "Md" Id hai gid tri quan trgng trong he gid tri kien tgo xa hpi da nguyen vd trdt tu quoc te do My lanh dgo lien quan tdi cd tu do hdng hdi, hdng khong, kinh te (hi trudng, nhd nudc phdp quyen, thuong ton phdp ludt vd xd hpi ddn su. Chien luge dugc hien thuc hod hdng cdc hdnh dpng cu (he, (ir viec dinh hinh quan diem chien luge, (irng budc tao dung cdc dgo ludt, cdc bien phdp (hue hien. Tuy nhien, "Tdm nhin" se doi mat vdi nhirng thdch (hire khde nhau bdi su kho ludng trong chinh sdch cua bdn (hdn ong D. Trump.
Tie khoa: Chien luge an ninh, Dgi dirong An Do Duang — Thdt Binh Duang, "Tu do vd Md".
T
hang 11/2017, phat bi6u tai Didn dan lanh dao cap cao cac doanh nghiep, mdt sy kien ben le Hdi nghi Ihupng dinh APEC dien ra tai Da Ndng, Viet Nam, Tdng thdng My D. Trump da neu ra mpt chien lupc an ninh mdi ve mdt khu vac An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong (An - Thai) tu do vd md ma dng cho rang myc fieu ciia chien lupc nay la "cdc quoc gia dpc ldp vd chit quyen, vdi nhung nen vdn hod da dgng vg nhieu gidc ma khde nhau, co (he ciing nhau phdt trien thinh vuong trong tu do vd hod binh ". Khu vyc nay trai dai tir bd bien phia Tay cua An Dp tdi bd bien phia Tay ciia My, tap trung ddng dan cu nhat va cd cac nen kinh te nang dpng ciia the gidi.*H(jc Vien-Ngoai giao
^ Captain Dr Gurpreet S Khurama, maritimerecon.iqpc.co uk
^ Shinzo Abe: Confluence of the Two Seas, Speech at the Parliament of the Republic of India August 22, 2007.
1. Ham y chien lu-ffc
Khai niem Dai duong "An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong" (An - Thai) do chien Luge gia An Dp Gupreet S. Khurana sir dung lan dau lien trong nghien cim chien lupe/dia - chinh tri nam 2006 - 2007 d An Dp'. Phat bidu tai Qudc hdi An Dp trong chuydn tham thang 8/2007, Thii tudng Nhat Ban Shinzo Abe cho rang: "Hien nay, cac dai duong Thai Binb Ducmg va An Dp Duong dang mang tdi su kel ndi nang ddng nhu hai bien ciia ty do va thinh vuong"^. Kbai niem Dai duong "An - Thai" ciing dugc Ngoai trudng My H. Clinton nhdc tdi trong bai "Thg ky Thai Binh Duong ciia My" dang tren Tap chi "Chinh sach ddi ngoai" thang 11/201 l l Tuy nhien vdi phat bidu ciia Tdng thdng My D. Trump, khu vuc nay
hrtps://w WW. mofa.go.jp/regi on/asia- paci/pmv0708/speech-2 html
^ H. CWiiton (20\\y. America's Pacific Century, Octoh&r 11, 2011, foreignpolicy com
Nhdng vin di KiNH i t VA CHINH TRI TH^ Giai S6 3(275) 2019 -
Khu vyc An Dd Duong - Thai Binh Duong Ty do v;
mang ham y chien lupc. 6 day. Tdng thdng D.
Trump mudn chuyen tir each tidp can truyen thdng chau A - Thai Binb Duong trong chinh sach "Xoay tryc/Tai can bdng" thdi Tdng thdng B. Obama sang "tam nhin "An - Thai" Tu do vd md', vi lpi ich eiia My tuy ve co ban vdn gidng nhu thdi lap qudc, nhung eanh tranh dja chinh trj giua tam nhin ty do va md vdi tam nhin ap biic ve trat ty the gidi da xuat hien d khu vyc.
Ham y cbien lupc ciia Tdng tbdng D. Trump ve "tam nhin "An - Thai" Tu do vd Md" la nham ngan chan ddi thii chien lupc Trung Qudc trong tinb the My dang hi "tupt ddc chien luge" do chinh sach can dy da that bai. My khdng cdn lpi the cd the trien khai, tap hpp luc lupng quan su va hanh ddng theo each My mudn tren tat ca cac ITnh vyc khdng gian, dat lien, bien, vii try va khdng gian mang. Trong klii dd tbi Trung Qudc dang trien kbai mpt chinb sach nhat quan, bao gdm: i) Dimg ddn bay hien dai boa quan sy, boat dpng gay anh hudng va kinh te kieu cudp bdc de cuong ep lang gieng sap dat lai trat ty "An - Thai" theo lpi the ciia Trung Qudc; ii) Thyc hien chien lupc tdng the qudc gia dai ban nham gianh quyen lyc theo uu the kinh te va quan su; iii) Tiep tuc hien dai hoa quan sy de gianh ba chii Dai Duong "An - Thai" trong ngan ban va day liii My gianh the ap dao tren loan cau trong tuong lai''.
Thu nhdt, "Tu do''' va "mff" la hai gia trj quan trpng trong be gia trj kien tao xa hpi da nguyen va trat tu qudc te do My lanh dao lien quan tdi ca tu do hang hai, hang khdng, kinh te thj trudng, nha nudc phap quyen, thugng tdn phap luat va xa hdi dan su. Tuyen bd ciia Tdng thdng D.
Trump ve "tam nhin "An - Thai" Tu do vd md"
la de bac bd quan diem khep kin "chau A ciia ngudi chau A" do Chu tich Tap Can Binh dua ra vao thang 5/2014 tai Hdi nghj ve cac bien phap tuang tac va xay dung Idng tin d chau A (CICA):
''nhdn ddn chdu A qudn ly cdc cong viec ciia
Nguyin Dinh Uia^L
"Chi^n luge Ou6c phong Qu6c gia Hoa Ky, thang 1/2018
chdu A, gidi quyet cdc vdn di ciia chdu A vd gin giir an ninh cua chdu / l " l Vd thyc chat, quan diem nay nham loai trir sy can du cua My ddi vdi chau A.
Thu hai, nam 2007 Thii tudng Nhat Shinzo.
Abe da dua ra chidn luge "An - Thai" ty do va thjnh vugng vdi myc fieu tang cudng hop tac vdi An Dp nham kdt ndi phat tridn chau A vdi chau Phi, cdn chil y chidn luge ciia Tdng tbdng D.
Trump la can phai thay cdu triic an ninh chau A - Thai Binh Duong trudc day bang "cau true an ninh Dai duong "An -Thai" Tu do vd md" mdi cd dil kha nang ngan chan Trung Qudc dac biet la ddi vdi tham vpng cudng qudc bien va Sang kien "Vanh dai Con dudng" (BRI) cd su ke thira
"chien lupc chudi ngpc trai" ma Trung Qudc da trien kbai d An Dp Duong tir 2005.
Thir ba, so vdi Lien Xd trudc day, Trung Qudc hien nay qua ddng ve dan sd, kha manh ve kinh te va quan su, kien tri va da cd dai chien lupc "chay dua maraton 100 nam (1949 - 2049)"
vdi My, nen ngan chan Trung Qudc khd hon rat nbieu. Trong Chien tranh Lanh, My chii yeu sir dyng fiep can cbien luge kieu Mahan - nhan manh quyen luc bien va cac vanh dai ven bien (rimlands), lien minh vdi hai dao qudc Anh, Nhat Ban va ban dao Tay Au de ngan chan Lien Xd, khdng quan tam tdi Trung A. Tam nhin Dai duang "An - Thai" Tu do vd md cua Tdng thdng D. Trump bao ham ca tiep can chien lupc kieu Mahan va tiep can chien luge kieu Mackinder - ai kiem soat luc dia A - Au thi kiem soat dupc tbd gidi. De ngan chan Lien Xd, nam 1972 Tdng thdng R. Nixon da tirng phai "hoa Trung khang Xd", gid day Tdng thdng D. Trump thyc hien
"lien hoan ke" can bang quyen lyc trudc kk la lien kdt chien luge vdi An Dp va trong tuang lai ia ca vdi Nga tbi mdi cd dii lyc va tbd ngan chan Trung Qudc. Tbuc ra thi nam 2008, Tdng thdng G. W Bush da khdi dpng ket ndi chidn luac vdi
^ Xi Jinping(2014): New Asian Security Concept For New Progress in Security Cooperation, 21 /5/2014, id.china-embassy.org
44 - Nhirng vin (36 KINH T 6 VA CHiNH TRj THfe Glai S6 3(275) 2019
Nguyen Dinh Luan Khu v y c A n Do D u o n g - Thai Binh D u o n g T u do va m d .
Aft Dp bang viec ky hiep dinh hat nhan dan su va nam 2009 Chlnh quydn Tdng thdng B. Obama cung mudn "cai d^t lai" (reset) quan he vdi Nga nhung khdng thanh^chii yeu la do sy ehdng ddi tir trong ndi bd.
Phat bieu tai Dien dan kinh doanb An Dp Duong - Thai Binb Duong do Bd Thirong mai My td chirc ngay 20/7/2018 lai Washington DC.
Bp trudng Bp Ngoai giao My Michael Pompeo bay td: "Khi chiing tdi ndi "tu do", didu dd cd nghTa la chiing tdi mong mudn tat ca cac qudc gia cd dil nang lyc de bao ve ehu quyen cua minh khdi sy do bd ciia nudc khac. 0 cap dp qudc gia.
"ty do" nghia la quan ly tdt va bao dam cho cac cdng dan dugc tan budng cac quyen co ban va sy tu do.
Khi chiing tdi ndi "md" tai An Dp Dirong - Thai Binh Duong, dieu dd cd nghia la chiing tdi mong mudn tat ca cac qudc gia deu dugc tiep can cdi md ve dudng bien va dudng khdng. Chiing tdi mong mudn cd giai phap hoa binh ddi vdi cac tranh chap lanh thd va lanh hai. Dd la dieu then chdt cho boa binh qudc te va dd mdi qudc gia dat dugc cac myc tieu rieng cua bp.
Ve kinh te, "md" cd nghia la thuong mai cdng bang va cd qua cd lai, mdi trudng dau tu md, cac hiep djnh giiia cac qudc gia minh bach va su ket ndi dupe cai thien de dan dat cac quan he khu vuc vi chiing la nhiing con dudng dan tdi tang trudng ben virng d khu vyc"^
2. Hanh dong thyc te
Trudc khi cdng bd "tam nhin "An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong" Tu do vd md", Tdng thdng D. Trump da trien khai "Idt d" chidn luge nham kiem toa Trung Qudc ca tren bien va tren bp.
Viec dng dien dam "phi truyen thdng" vdi Tdng thdng Dai Loan Thai Anh Van ngay 2/12/2016 trudc khi nham chirc da "be Id" mdt dinh hudng chien lupc mdi vi Dai Loan la vj tri tien lieu
^ Michel R. Pompeo: Remarks on "America's Indo- Pacific Economic Vision", state.gov
trong "chudi dao thii nliat: Han Qudc - Nhat Ban - Dai Loan - Philippines" nham ngan chan tham vpng thao tiing bien Ddng ciia Trung Qudc. Tiep theo, Tdng thdng D. Trump cdng bd "Chien lupc Afganistan" vao thang 9/1017. Ve dja- chinh tri, Afganistan la vi tri dau cau tren vanh dai kinh te con dudng to lua tren bp bat dau lii' mien Tay Trung Qudc hoang vu cham phat trien fien qua Trung A day tiem nang dau lira va khoang san quy hiem de vuon tdi Tay Au cdng nghe cao va thinh vupng.
"Chien luge... Ia nhan ra cae yeu td thuan loi cd mat trong tat ca cac tinh hudng, cho dii chiing cdn rdng tuech hay mdi chi la dau hieu he ra, ke ca vdi tinh hudng bat lpi nhat, de sau dd tim each khai thac bang each hudng theo chiing sudt chieu dai chiing trien khai."^ Tu each tiep can nay, cd the nhan dien dupc qua trinh chuyen hoa lir "tam nhin "An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong" Tu do vd md" sang hanb dpng tam chien lupc cu the.
Mpt Id. tic Idm nhin tdt quan diem chien luge.
"Tam nhin "An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong" Tu do vd md'^ da dupc dien djch ra ngdn ngu chien luge trong Chien luge An ninh Qudc gia Hoa Ky thang 12/2017 (NSS12/2017) va trong Chien lupc Qudc phdng Qudc gia Hoa Ky thang 1/2018 (NDSl/2018). NSS12/2017 khdng djnh quyet tam bao ve ''trdt tu quoc te tu do vd md" ca ve chinh iri, an ninh vd kinh te do My thiet lap, lanh dao va soan thao luat choi. "An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong" la kbu vye uu tien hang ddu trong NSS12/2017 va trong NDSl/2018 vdi viec xac dinh Trung Qudc la ddi thil chien lupc va la cudng qudc xet lai.
Dang luu y la Tdng thdng D. Trump da tryc tiep tuyen bd NSS12/2017 tai Toa nha Reagan - ngudi da timg de xudng chii thuyet "Hoa binh bang sue manh" va day ciing la mdt try cdt trong NSS12/2017.Nd the hien dinb hudng chien luge ma Tdng thdng D. Trump da khang dinh trong ' Francois Jullien (2004): Bdn ve chu-lhoi - Nhimgyeu to cua mot Iriit ly .song, Nxb Da Ning, 2004, tr. 187.
Nhdng vin di KINH T^ VA C H I N H 1R\ IWt G\0\ So 3(275) 2 0 1 9 - 45
Khu vuc An Dd Duong - Thai Binh Duong Ty do va md'. NguylnOinhJ-uaL bai phat bieu d Dai hdi ddng Lien Hiep Qudc
Ihang 9/2017: "Tir bay gid trd di, cac mdi quan tam an ninh cua chiing tdi.se chi su Idu ddi vd phgm vi hogt dpng cua qudn dpi, chir khdng phai cac lieu chuan va thdi gian bieu tuy y do eac chinh tri gia thiet lap... Qudn dpi My se sdm trd nen manh nhdt (rong hch su cua no"^. Day ciing chinb la la each tiep can chii dao ciia chii nghia bien thyc.
Hai la, (ir chien luge tdi dgo ludt co che tdi vd nguon luc (di chinh bdo ddm thuc hien cdc muc tieu chien luac.
Ngay 16/3/2018, Tdng thdng D. Trump ky
"Dao luat Di lai Dai Loan" nham khuyen khich quan chiic cac cap My tham Dai Loan va ddn quan chiic Dai Loan vao My theo nhiing dieu kien thich hgp. Ngay 12/6/2018, My khanh thanh toa van phdng mdi ciia Vien Hoa Ky tai Dai Loan cd chire nang nhu "Dai sii quan".
Thang 8/2018, Tdng thdng D. Trump da ky
"Dao luat Uy quyen Qudc phdng" (NDAA) cho nam tai khoa 2019 vdi muc ngan sach qudc phdng 716 ty USD, sau nang len 750 ty USD - ldn nhat tir trudc tdi nay de day nhanh tien dp xay dung quan dpi My himg manh nhat the gidi trong dd cd Hai quan va Lyc Iugng Khdng gian nham ddi phd vdi tinh the: "nhitng cupc xung dpi tuang lai se tdi nhanh han, keo ddi hon vd dien ra d trdn chien thdch do ve cong nghe nhieu hon"^
NDAA 2019 eho phep cung cap tai ehinh cho 14 hanh ddng cung ran de ngan chan Trung Qudc, bao gdm: i) Hd trp sang kien dn djnh khu vyc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong; ii) Xay dung chidn lupc rd rang ve Trung Qudc va bat bupc bao cao Iai cho qudc hdi; iii) Tang cudng kha nang sdn sang ciia lyc lugng phdng ve Dai Loan; iv) Nang cdp Sang kidn An ninh Hang hai Ddng Nam A cii dd bao trum khu vyc An Dp
« Trump's 2017 UN speech transcript, politico.com
^ The National Military Strategy of the United Slates of America 2015, p. i
Duong - Thai Binh Duong; v) Dien tap phong thil ten lua tai khu vyc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong; vi) Tap Iran va hgp tac quan su troiig khudn khd "Tir giac Kim cuong"; vii) Trao quyen cho Tu lenh Bd Chi huy An Do Ducmg - Thai Binh Duong; viii) Gidi ban kinh phi tai trg cho cac chuong trinh fiSng phd thdng Trung Qudc; ix) Md rpng hop tac qudc phdng va an ninh vdi An Dp; x) Cho phep chuydn giao tau bai quan cho Nhat Ban; xi) Yeu cdu bao cao thudng nien cho Qudc hdi ve cac boat ddng quan sy, hang hai va bang khdng ciia Trung Qudc d khu vuc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong; xii) Cho phep tiep xuc qudc phdng cao cap vdi Dai Loan; xiii) Han che kha nang ciia Tdng thdng Trump trong viec cat giam lye lugng My tai Han Qudc; va xiv) Tang cudng hgp tac phdng thii ten liia vdi cac doi tac lai khu vyc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong'".
NDAA2019 cdn cam Trung Qudc tham gia cudc tap tran hai quan ldn nhat the gidi "Vanh dai Thai Binh Ducmg" (RIMPAC) cho ddn khi Bdc Kinh chdm diit cac boat ddng quan sy hoa d bidn Ddng. NDAA2019 ciing da cam cac ca quan cua Chinh phii sir dyng linh kien vien thdng ciia hai hang dau dan Huawei va ZTE va tang cudng quyen ban ciia Uy ban Ddu tu nudc ngodi vdo My. Uy ban nay giam sat cac khoan dau tir ciia Trung Qudc va gid day iiy ban dupc giao viec danh gia tac ddng ciia cac khoan dau tu nay den Igi ich an ninh qudc gia, Tdng thdng D.
Trump dang can nhac ban hanh sac lenh da dupc chuan bi tir thang 8/2018 nham cam cac cong ty My sir dyng thiet bj vien thdng ciia Huawei va ZTE ciia Trung Qudc sdm nhdt la vao thang 1/2019.
Thang 10/2018, Thupng vien My da thdng qua Dao luat BUILD de lap ra IDFC - quy vien trg quoc te mdi co ngdn sdch 60 ty USD uu tien ho trp xay dung ha tang cdng nghe cao d khu vyc 1° Carl Thayer (2018): Ludt qudc phong mdi cua My that sir cimg rdn hon vai Trung Quoc, news.zing vn 05/08/2018
46 - Nhdng vin di KINH T^ VA CHJNH 1R\ IHt Giai S6 3 ( 2 7 5 ) 2 0 1 9
Nguyen Dinh Luan Khu vuc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Dugng Ty do va md:.
An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong nham ddi trpng lai vdi BRI cua Trung Qudc.
Ngay 31/12/2018, Tdng thdng D. Trump da ky ban hanh "Dao luat Tran an chau A" (ARIA) vdi ngan sach 1,5 ty USD trong 5 nam nham tang cudng phat trien quan he ngoai giao vdi cac ddng minh va ddi tac, hgp tac dao tao hang bai va boat ddng tuan tra tu do d khu vyc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong gdm bien Hoa Ddng va bien Ddng, img hp trat ty qudc te dya tren luat le cd loi cho tat ca cac nudc. Dao luat nay cung thiic day My ban vii khi cho Dai Loan theo djnh ky (trudc dd, ngay 29/6/2017 My quyet dinh ban 1,42 ty vii khi cho Dai Loan gdm be tbdng ra da canh bao sdm, ten lira tdc dp cao chdng biic xa, ngu Idi va cac bd phan cita ten lira SM-2; ngay 25/9/2018, My ky hpp ddng 330 trieu USD ban vu khi cho Dai Loan.)
Nhu vay, "tam nhin "An - Thai" Tu do vd md"
da dupe dien djch ra ngdn ngii quan su va kinh te thyc tien trong cac dao luat cy the, djnh hinh
"cdu tnic an ninb "An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong" Tu do vd md" ma d dd cd cac thanh td nhu trpng diem chien lupc Dai Loan, Han Qudc,
"Tir giac kim cuong", Ddng Nam A va bien Ddng, nham rao chan va kiem toa Trung Qudc.
Ba Id. edi dgt lai trdt tu quoc te: tdp hgp luc lugng. ludt le vd tro chai.
i) De ngan chan Trung Qudc mdt each loan dien va cd he thdng, Tdng thdng D. Trump da thay ddi luat le va trd choi theo hudng "don phuong chi dgo, song phmmg chu dgo, da phuong khi can". My da nil ra khdi Hiep djnh ddi tac xuyen Thai Binh Duong - TPP, Thoa thuan hat nhan Iran, Hdi ddng Nhan quyen Lien hiep qudc, Toa an Hinh su Qudc te, UNESCO, Hiep udc Cac luc lupng hat nhan tdm trung (INF) vdi Nga ky nam 1987.
ii) "Cai dat lai" va nang cap he thdng an ninh
"tryc nan hoa" truyen thdng. Quan he ddng minh ciing dupc dieu chinh theo nguyen tdc "binh dang va cd qua cd lai". Ddng thdi, ben canh viec
"cai dat lai" cac quan he an ninh song phuong vdi ddng minh kbu vyc, My lang cudng quan he qudc phdng vdi An Dp, tai co cau "chudi dao thii nhat gdm Han Qudc - Nhat Ban - Dai Loan - Philippines" va timg budc thiel lap cac quan he phdi hgp chien luge tay ba nhu My - Nhat Ban - An Dp (tap Iran Malabar d vinh Belgan, khu vyc quanh dao Guam gan bien Philippines va cd thd ca d bien Nhat Ban), My - Nhat Ban - Han Qudc, My - Nhat Ban - Australia (My cimg Austraha xay dung can cii hai quan Manus d Papua New Guinea), My - Han Qudc - Bac Trieu Tien va My - Nhat Ban - Nga (quan he Nhat Ban - Nga vdn dupc tang cudng bat chap lenh cam van cua My, Tdng thong D. Trump ciing mudn cai thien quan he vdi Nga de kiem che Trung Qudc). Theo Stanley Hoffmann, "Ngogi gigo md (hieu sire mgnh thi se hdt lue, con sire mgnh md thieu ngogi giao thi se mu qudng"^\ vi vay Tdng thdng D.
Trump khdng qua eye doan ve siic manh quan sy, van coi trpng sire manh ngoai giao. Ong da cd hai cudc gap ljch sii vdi Chii tich Trieu Tien Kim Jong Un (12/6/2018) tai Singapore va vdi Tdng thdng Nga V. Pufin ngay 16/7/2018 tai Phan Lan nham phan boa quan he Trung Qudc - Trieu Tien va quan he Trung Qudc - Nga. Cupc gap thugng dinb My - Trieu lan thir hai da dugc td chuc trong hai ngay 27-28/2/2019 tai Ha Npi, Viet Nam, Tuy hai ben khdng dua ra duge tuyen bd chung hay thoa thuan nao dd, nhung day eung la mdt budc tien quan trpng trong qua trinh dam phan thupng dinh My - Trieu ve van de hat nhan tren ban dao Trieu Tien. Sau khdi dau d Singapore, cupc gap ciia Tdng thdng D. Trump vdi Chil tjch Kim Jung Un d Ha Ndi bat dau di vao thyc chat thoa hiep, nen dam phan se cdn tryc trac, len xudng va keo dai. Cudc dam phan giira Viet Nam vdi My d Pari keo dai 5 nam, dam
" Rober J. Lieber (2005): The American Era - Power and Strategy for the 2T' Century, Cambridge University Press, 2005, p.58
Nhdng vin di KINH i t VA CHINH 1R\ IHt Giai Sd 3(275) 2019- -47
Khu vuc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong Tu do va md:. Nguyen DinhJ-"g!l- phan binb thudng boa giira My vdi Trung Qudc
dai dang 8 nam (tir ngoai giao bdng ban 1971 tdi 1979). Quan he qudc phdng ciia My vdi cae ddi tac d Ddng Nam A trong dd cd Viet Nam dupc fidp tye tbiic ddy. Thang 3/2018. tau san bay USS Carl Vinson ciia My da tdi Da Nang.
iii) O bien Ddng, Cbinh quyen Tdng tbdng D.
Trump gia tang cac chuyen tuan tra eiia ca tau chien, tau khu true va may bay B52 d vimg 12 hai ly quanh mdt sd dao d Hoang Sa va Trudng Sa. Phat bieu tai "Hpi ngbj Cap cao Ddng A"
(EAS) d Singapore ngay 15/11/2018, Phd Tdng thdng M. Pence canh bao: "Quan sy hoa va banh tru'dng lanh thd ciia Trung Qudc d bien Ddng la phgm ludt vd nguy hiem. Nd de dpa chu quyen ciia nhieu qudc gia va nguy biem cho sy thjnh vugng cua the gidi... De quoc vd xam luge khong CO cho dung d khu vuc An Dp Duong - Thdi Binh Duong... My se tiep tyc di lai tren bien, tren khdng d bdt cir noi ndo ludt phdp quoc te cho phep cUng nhu loi ich quoc gig cua chung toi yeu cdu"^^.
iv) "Cai dat lai" luat choi kinh te d kbu vuc theo nguyen tac "cdng bang, cd qua cd lai" va
"an ninh kinh te ebinb la an ninh qudc gia". Hiep dinh thuang mai mdi My - Han da dugc ky ket lai ngay 24/9/2018. My va Nhat Ban eung dang dam phan lai hiep djnh thuang mai. De ehdng lai cupc "xam lang kinh te" cua Trung Qudc, ngay 6/7/2018 My bat dau khai hoa dgt 1 cudc chidn thuong mai vdi Trung Qudc - ap mire thue 25%
vdi 818 mat hang nhap khau tir Trung Qudc trj gia 34 ty USD va them 16 ty USD vao ngay hdm sau. Sau khi tam giac thuang mgi gid tri vd tu do My - EU - Nhat dugc dinh hinh nham loai Trung Qudc, ngay 17/9/2018, My mdi tuyen bd ap tbud dgt hai ddi vdi 200 ty USD hang boa nhap khdu tir Trung Qudc vdi muc thue bd sung 10% se dugc ap dung tir ngay 24/9 cho den bet nam 2018, sau do dupc keo dai them tdi 1/3/2019 se
tang len 25% ndu Trung Qudc khdng dap injg dupc yeu edu ciia My. Trong khi dd, tai cac cupc dam phan song phuong nhdm tim giai phap cho cudc chien thuong mai giira hai nudc, phia My van td ra rdt eirng rdn trong eac van de ma My cao bupc Trung Quoc.
Su dung Didu 301 cua Dao luat thuong mai nam 1974 vd quygn ban Tdng thdng, thang 8/2017, Tdng thdng D. Trump da ra lenh md mdt cudc dieu tra ebinh thuc nhdm vao cac hanh ddng gay sii'c ep chuyen giao va danh cap tai san tri tue ciia My va ddng minh, gay thiet hai tir 225 ty USD tdi 600 ty USD mdi nam vdi rieng nudc My. Cudc chien cdng nghe phan cdng "Made in China 2025" ciing da dupc trien khai. Ngay 9/10/2018, Tir Dien Quan - Phd Giam ddc Sd an ninh finh Giang Td bj bat d Bi tir thang 4/2018, dupc dan dp den My vdi cao bupc boat ddng gian diep thu thap thdng tin "rat nhay cam" ciia mpt sd cdng ty hang khdng My nhu GE Aviafion.
Ngay 10/10/2018, Tir Dien Quan bi xet xir tai toa an lien bang d Cincinnati, bang Ohio. Day la ldn ddu den mdt gian diep Trung Qudc hi dan dp tdi My va dua ra toa. Ngay 30/11 /2018, theo yeu cSu ciia Bd Tu phap My, Canada da bat ba Manh Van Chu - Phd Tdng Giam ddc kiem Giam ddc tai chinh Huawei vi ba nay da sir dyng mdt cdng ty con ciia Huawei cd ten la Skycome de vi pham lenh trimg phat ciia My doi vdi Iran trong thdi gian til' 2009 den 2014. Huawei la tap doan cdng nghe hang dau ciia Trung Qudc, dupc xem la mui nhpn cdng nghe cua Trung Qudc trong cudc dua 5G - yeu td then chdt trong chd tao xe tu lai va tri tue nhan tao.
3. Kho khan va thach thii-c
Sau bon mot nam trien kbai, cd thd thdy "tdm nhin "An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong" Tu do vd md" cua Tdng thong D. Trump dang dupc hien thyc boa bang cae chien lupc, dao luat va '^ Prepared Remarks For Vice President Pence al Ihe
East Asia Summit Plenary Session, Foreign Policy, Issued on: November 15/2018, whitehouse.gov
48 - Nhdng vin di KINH i t VA CHiNH TR! TH^ GIOI So 3(275) 2019
Nguyin Dinh Luan Khu vyc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duang Tu do va md:.
hanh ddng cy thd thiet thuc. Nhung lieu My cd thd ngan chan dupc Trung Qudc theo chu truong
"dan phuang chi dgo, song phuong chii dgo vd da phuong khi cin " hay khdng thi van phai chd them thdi gian, hon nira, chinh trj qudc te gan vdi dai sd (dudng fiem can va ma Iran nbieu an sd) hon la sd hpc (2-t-2=4 va phuang trinh tuyen tinh ax+b=e).
Trong sach trdng quoc phdng ciia Trung Qudc nam 2015 cd phuong cham "anh co cdch ddnh ciia anh, toi co cdch ddnh cua toil" Trung Qudc cd chidn lupc dai ban, cd sach luge va cac chieu thirc binh phap ddc dao de iing phd vdi My. Sau vy Canada bit giir ba Manh Van Chu (Huawei), Trung Qudc da lan lugt bat giii 13 cdng dan Canada, trong do 8 ngudi sau dd da dupc tra ty do.
vh an ninh, eho dii Chinh quyen Tdng tbdng D. Trump tang cudng cac boat dpng "Giam sat ty do hang hai d bien Ddng (FONOP) chuyen ngay 7/1/2019 la chuydn thii 9, tuy cd them sy tham gia ciia Nhat Ban, An Dp, New Zealand, Han Qudc, Phap, Anh, Canada... song Trung Qudc khdng chim budc, kien quyet theo dudi
"Gidc mdng Trung Hoa" nhd cd lpi the dia - chidn lupc phi ddi ximg d Ddng A, fidp tuc quyet doan d bien Ddng, tang cudng quan sy hoa cac dao nhan tao d Trudng Sa...
Cupc chien thucmg mai lam cho Trung Qudc hi thiet hai kha nang, nhung My eung bj lao dao vi day la hai nen kinh te ldn nhat trong mpt the gidi ket ndi tuong hd toan cau. "Trang chet, Chiia ciing bang ha..." cung la mot kich ban dang chii y. Theo Koichi Hamada - Cd van kinb te dac biet cua Thil tudng Abe, My "chac chan phai chiu tdn that nghiem trpng do sy chuyen hudng thuong mai"'-*. Xuat khau cua Nhat Ban sang Trung Qudc trong mia ddu 2018 cd gia tri hon 4.000 ly yen, tang 16,4% so vdi nira dau 2017'''. Thang
10/2018, Thil tudng Abe da tham Bac Kinh cd sy thap tiing ciia 400 doanh nghiep. Nhat Ban khdng the bd qua thi trudng Trung Qudc rdng Idn day tidm nang. Hai ben ky ket 50 thoa thuan trong dd cd thoa thuan boan ddi lien te 30 ty USD cd hieu lyc vao nam 202!. Nhat Ban ciing da tirng chiu Iran cudc chien thuang mai ciia My va hi lao dao cho den nay vi Hiep udc Plaza nam 1985. Trung Qudc, Nhat Ban va Han Qudc dang thue day FTA va ca ba deu khdng mudn mau thuan an ninh lan at hgp tac phat trien kinh te dac biet la khi Tdng thdng D. Trump de cao "nudc My tren bet"!
Ve phia Trung Qudc, Bac Kinh ciing tim ke hoan binh de lui thdi gian ap thue 25% va ed the dat dugc mdt thoa thuan lau dai vdi Washington ve thuong mai. Sau hai cupc dam phan thuong mai cap cao d Bac Kinh va d Washington thang 2/2019 vdi ket qua kha quan la hai ben cd the di tdi mdt thoa thuan Ijch su ve thuong mai song phuong va quyen sd hiru tri tue, Tdng thdng D.
Trump quyet dinh lui ngay nang thue len 25%
ddi vdi hang boa Trung Qudc sau 1 /3. Tuy nhien, trong cupc hpp bao chieu 28/2 tai Ha Npi sau cupc hpp vdi nha lanh dao Trieu Tien Kim Jong Un, Tdng thdng D. Trump canh bao cd the tir bd thoa thuan vdi Trung Qudc neu dng khdng ung y.
Trong "Tir giac kim cuong", rieng An Dp cd 4.700 km bien gidi dat lien va cd mau thudn chien luge vdi Trung Qudc. Tdng kim ngaeh thuang mai song phuong dat 71,5 ty USD trong nam tai ehinh 2017, trong do xuat khau ciia Trung Qudc sang An Dp dat khoang 61,3 ty USD (Iugng thiet hi vien thdng tri gia 11,3 ly USD va khoang 4,4 ty USD iinh kien dien tu). Rieng cac nha san xudt thidt bj cam tay Trung Qudc kiem soat 50% thi trudng smartphone trj gia 10 ty USD cua An Dp. Sy phu thudc kinh td nay budc An Dp phai can nhac budc di trong Bp Tii va Trung Qudc se diing eon bai thuong mai de ngan chan An Dp can dy an ninh vdi Bd Tii. Thang 4/2018, Thii tudng Mordi da cd cudc gap quan
"Koichi Hamada (2018): IVho Benefits from Trump's Trade War, Project Syndicate, 3 1/12.
" Koichi Hamada (2018)' iVho Benefits from Trump's Trade War, Project Syndicate, 31/12/2018
Nhdng vin di KINH it VA CHJNH TRj IHt G\0\ So 3(275) 2019 - 49
Khu v y c A n D p D u a n g - Thai Binh D u a n g T u do \ Nguyin DinhJ^^jiH- trpng vdi Chii tich Tap Can Binh d Vu Han nhdm
dan xep khudn khd quan he song phuang.
Quan he qudc phdng An Dp - My cd budc tidn mdi nhu Thoa thuan chia se hau can qudc phdng 2016 va Thoa thuan ve tinh tuong thich va bao mat truyen thdng nam 2018, nhung An Dp van giii khoang each vdi My. Tai Ddi thoai Shangri- La ve an ninh chau A thang 6/2018, Thii tudng N. Modi da khang dinh: "An Dp khdng xem An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong nhu mdt chien luge hay nhu cau lac bd gidi ban thanh vien". An Dp khdng tham gia cap cao BRI cua Trung Qudc (5/2017) va ciing khdng tham du Didn dan Doanh nghiep An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong do My td ehiie tai Washington (7/2018). Tai day.
My da cam kdt ddu tu 113 trieu USD xay dung CO sd ha tang, ket ndi ky thuat sd, nang lugng cho khu vuc. My chi 60 ty USD hd trg phat trien cd sd ha tang trong 7 nam, nhung day van chi la con sd kha khiem tdn so vdi nhu cau phat trien ca sd
•ha tang to Idn eua chau A. Tbeo Ngan bang Phat tridn Thd gidi (ADB) tir 2016 ddn 2030, chau A cdn 26.100 ty USD dau tu cho co sd ba tang, nhu vay mdi nam can khoang 1.744 ty USD. Rieng Ddng Nam A cdn 210 ty USD/nam'^ Ddu t u b a tang la khau then chdt ddi vdi tang trudng kinh te ben vung ciia chau A ndi chung va An Dp ndi rieng. AIIB dang ggi y cho An Dp vay 1 ty USD.
Cang thdng an ninh gan day giiia An Dp vdi Pakistan budc An Dp phai can nhac thau dao tdi
"lijra gan"!
Vi vay, ve tdng the chien lupc. An Dp khdng thd vi "Bd Tit" ciia My ma "ngoanb mat" vdi Trung Qudc - ddi tac dudng cdt trong BRICS.
Cung nhu Tdng thdng D. Trump, T h u j u a n g Modi va ngudi kd nhiem ddu la ai thi van can phai dat lpi ich ciia An Dp len tren hdt. Ca An Dp, Nhat Ban va Australia ddu phai tinh nudc ddi trong quan he vdi My va Trung Qudc. ASEAN va nhieu nudc Ddng Nam A cung vay (Singapore daky FTA vdi Trung Quoc tb^ng 11/2018).
Chil IhuyM "nudc My tren hdt" cua Tdng thdng D. Trump it nhidu dang gay tam thiic phan liet lo lang "bi bd roi" trong khu vuc. Do dd qua trinh trien khai "tdm nhin "An - Thdi" Tu do vd md" ciia Tdng thdng D. Trump khdng de sudn se.
Tuy nhien, day van la mdt ddng lye co ban kien lao kien true an ninb khu vyc vdi trat ty dya tren luat le qudc te va gdp phan xay dyng co sd ha tang cdng nghe cao cho nhieu nudc, thuc day phat trien ben viing trong khu vyc. NSS12/2017 khang dinh: "Tam nhin cua (My) ve An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong khdng loai trir mpt qudc gia nao. (My) se tang gap ddi cam ket doi vdi cac ddng minh va ddi tac da dugc thiet lap, ddng thdi md rdng va lam sau sac mdi quan he vdi cac ddi tac mdi cung chia se sy tdn trpng chil quyen, cdng bang va thuong mai cd qua cd lai, nha nudc phap quyen"'^. Trong thdi gian tdi, neu Chinh quyen cua Tdng thong D. Trump
"di deu hon ca hai chan an ninh va kinh te", giai quyet thoa dang hem mdi quan he cdng bang va cd qua cd lai ciing nhu mdi quan he giiia song phuong va da phuong ddi vdi cac ddng minh va doi tac d khu vye, thi "tdm nhin "An Dp - Thdi Binh Duong" Tu do vd md" se cd sue thu hiit manh me hon va dupc hien thyc hoa vdi hieu qua ldn bon*
^^ Infrustructure Financing Challenges in Sovlheasi Asia.
Policy Dialoue on IFS for Southeast Asia, Manila, 29 August 2017, unescap.org
i^NSS12/2017, p. 46-47
50 - Nhdng vin di KtNH i t VA CHINH TRj IHt G i a i So 3(275) 2019
Nguyen Dinh Luan Khu vuc An Dd Duong-Thai Binh Duong Ty do va md'...
Tai lieu tham khao:
1. Captain Dr Gurpreet S Khurama, maritimerecon.iqpc.co.uk
2. Carl Thayer (2018): Ludt quoc phong mdi ciia My thdt su cung rdn hon vdi Trung Quoc, news.zing.vn, 05/08/2018.
3. Chien lupc Qudc phdng Qudc gia Hoa Ky, thang 1/2018.
4. Francois Jullien (2004): Bdn ve chir thdi - Nhirng yeu td cug mot triet ly sdng, Nxb. Da Ndng, 2004, tr. 187.
5. H. Clinton (2Q\\): Americg's Pacific Century, October 11, 2011, foreignpohcy.com 6. Infrustructure Fingncing Challenges in Southeast Asia, Policy Dialoue on IFS for Southeast
Asia, Manila, 29 August 2017, unescap.org
7. Koichi Hamada (2018): Who Benefits from Trump's Trade War, Project Syndicate, 31/12/2018.
8. Koichi Hamada (2018): Who Benefits from Trump's Trade War, Project Syndicate, 31/12/2018.
9. Michel R. Pompeo: Remarks on "Americg 's Indo-Pacific Economic Vision ", state.gov 10. NSS12/2017,p.46-47.
11. Prepared Remarks For Vice President Pence at the East Asia SummU Plenary Session, Foreign Policy, Issued on: November 15/2018, whitehouse.gov.
12. Remarks by President Trump at APEC CEO Summit Da Nang, Vietnam, Foreign Policy, November 10,2017, whitehouse.gov.
13. Remarks by President Trump at APEC CEO Summit Da Nang, Vietnam, Foreign Policy, November 10, 2017, whitehouse.gov.
14. Rober J. Lieber (2005): The American Era - Power and Strategy for the 2F' Century, Cambridge University Press, 2005, p.58.
15. Shinzo Abe: Confluence of the Two Seas, Speech al the Parliament of the Republic of India August 22,2007, https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/pmv0708/speech-2.html 16. The National Military Strategy of the United States of America 2015, p. i.
17. Trump's 2017 UN speech transcript, politico.com.
18. Xi Jinping (2014): New Asian Security Concept For New Progress in Security Cooperation, 21/5/2014, id.china-embassy.org.
Thdng tin tdc gid:
TS. NGUYEN DINH LUAN Ngityen cdn bp HQC vi^n Ngoai giao Email: cuakien@gmail. com
Nhdng vin di KINH it vA CHINH TRj TH^ GIQI Sd 3(275) 2019 I f '
