Chinh sach | Policy Asia-I^adflc Econoimc Itevfev
Thay gi q u a xuat khau h a n g hoa c u a Viet Nam n a m 2012
Nguy^H6ngPh6i
T
heo sd lidu thdng kd dupe edng bd, tinh ddn hdt thdng 11-2012, tdng kim nggch xudt khau ed nude dd dgt hon 104 ty USD, tdng 18,4% so vdi eung ky ndm ngodi; tdng kim nggch nhdp khdu 11 thdng dgt 103,99 ty USD, tdng 6,8% so vdi eung ky ndm trudc. Ndu thdng 12 ed nude xudt khau dgt kim nggch bdng thdng 11 vua qua (10,2 ty USD) thi kim ngach xudt khdu cd nude trong ndm 2012 Id 114,2 ty USD; va nhdp khau thdng 12 vuot qua kim nggch thdng 11 (10,25 ly USD) mdt it, thi tdng kim nggch nhdp khdu ciia nu6c la trdn 114 ly USD. Ddy la miiexuat, nhap khau cao nhdt tii trudc de'n nay, vd sau nhidu ndm lidn tuc nhdp sieu (ndm 2011 cd nude nhdp sieu gan 10 ty USD), ldn ddu tidn Viet Nam cdn bdng can can thuong mgi, vupt myc tidu eua chidn lupc xudt nhdp khdu thdi ky 2011-2020 ve "cdn bdng xuat nhap khdu" dd di trude thdi hgn 8 ndm.
Chd voi mung can bang thmmg mai
Can bdng thuong mgi trong ndm 2012 tdt ldnh eho ndn kinh id nude nhd trong liic cdn nhidu khd khdn nhung chua thd lgc quan sdm de'n thd. Vi kinh te eung ndn ngogi thuong nude ta, da, dang va vdn con phu thudc rat nhidu vdo nude ngodi; khdng chi vd cdng nghidp, xdy dung, giao thdng, vdn tdi md cd nen ndng nghidp vdn dupc coi Id cd nhieu tidm ndng vd cd lpi th^ so sanh. Do Id nguydn nhdn vd didm
xudt phdt cua mpi van dd. Do do, cdn phai xem xdl cdn than khi nhdp khdu do at, nhdp sieu ldng cao, cflng nhu nhdp khau tgm then trdm ldng nhu ndm nay do sdn xual trong nuoc gidm sut.
Mdt khdc, sd lieu thd'ng ke chinh thiie ve kim nggch nhdp khdu thdt chinh xdc chua, hay con bd sdt nhidu khodn nhap Idu va hai quan dang thdt thu thue nhdp khidu khd ldn. Hdng Idu vao nude la bdng tdt cd mpi neo dudng vdi dii logi mdnh ludi, thu thudt ngay cdng tinh vi, xdo quydt vd tao ton. Hdng Idu ngang nhidn 6 at, rong rdn ndi dudi nhau qua bidn gidi trdn bd; vupt qua sdng, bidn vd ea dudng hang khdng, lu hdng xdch lay ddn chp bidn gidi. Hang Idu khdng nhflng trdn trd cdc ciia hang, eiia Weu d thdnh phd, thi xd, thi h-an md eon cOng vdi hang Vidt vd ndng thdn kh^p cd nuoc dudi tidu de "ngudi
10
KINH T^ CHAU A - THAI BiNH DUONG S6 3B6 <12/2012)Vi$t Nam dflng hdng Vidt Nam".
Hang nhdp 'du ai cung thay vd khdng il ngudi mua tfl cdi ldm, md rau, cu qud, con ga, qua trflng, thil Ipn, de'n my phdm, thudc ehua b^nh, chat kich thich, thudc bdo vd thyc vdt, do choi cua trd em kich d0ng bgo lyc.
Su sut gidm vd nhdp khdu trong ndm 2012 edn do sdn xudt cdng nghiap trong nude ndi chung syt gidm so vdi cdc nam trude, ndn miic lidu thy vdt lu, nguydn lieu khdng nhidu; trong luc dd sd vdt tu, nguydn Iidu nhap tu ndm trude cdn Iai dang kd. Dau tu cua cdc doanh nghidp trong nude vd cde doanh nghidp CO vdn dau tu nude ngodi ddu chung Iai vd gidm so vdi mdy ndm trude, nen giam nhdp khdu mdy mdc, thiet bi ky thudt va edng nghd. Ndm 2012, cd nude thu hflt vdn dau tu trye tie'p cua nude ngoai, tinh ea dy dn mdi vd du dn edn hieu luc tdng them vdn chi bdng khodng 70% so vdi ndm ngodi; trong dd cd ddn gdn 150 dy an ed quy mP nhd, vdn ddu tu chi bdng hode nhd hon 100.000 USD.
Do thdm hut ngdn sdch, nen Chinh phii phdi cdt gidm dau tu cdng va mua sdm, cung gdp phan giam nhap sidu.
Trong nam 2012, eac doanh nghidp ed vdn dau tu nude ngodi (FDI) xudt sieu khd. Cac doanh nghiep nude ngoai den Viet Nam dau tu hau bet deu cd cdng ly me ed tidm lye tai ehinh ldn d nude ngoai, nen viee chuydn vdn hode vay vdn dau lu phdt trien sdn xudt, mua sdm thidt bj cdng nghe mdi ddu khpng bl dnh hudng bdi tinh hinh lin dyng kho khdn trong nude.
Nhd cd uu the' vupt trdi vd vdn va cdng nghd, ndn cdc doanh nghiep FDI tidp tyc duy tri tdng trudng mgnh kim nggch xuat khau. Chi tinh trong 11 thdng ndm 2012, xudt sidu hdng hda ehu ydu tap tmng vao khdi doanh nghidp FDI gan 10,65 ly USD. Cdn khu vue kinh td trong nude tidp tyc nhap sidu ehu ydu tu Trung Qudc 10,64 ty USD vdi
kim nggch xucit khdu vd kim ngach nhdp khdu hdng hda ddu gidm so vdi eung ky ndm ngodi, do gdp khd khdn trong sdn xudt va tidu thu sdn phdm.
Xuat khau hang tho qua nhieu Cho de'n nay, Vidl Nam vdn Id mOt trong nhiing nude edn xudt khdu hdng hda cd gid td gia tdng thdp vd xudt khdu qud nhidu ndng sdn, hdng hda dudi dgng nguydn lidu thd nhu hgt didu, tidu, ea phd, chd, eao su, ddm g6... Trong khi dd, lgi nhdp chinh sdn phdm cua nguydn Iidu minh xudt di vd dung.
Theo Hidp hpi cdc nude xudt khdu cao su ty nhidn (ANRPC), ndm 2012, Vidt Nam sdn xuat eao su ty nhidn diing thu 3 eua thd gidi, nhung dang xudt khau eao su thien nhien dgng nguyen lieu tho Id chfl ydu, sdn phdm cao su qua ehe bien vd tinh chd mdi chidm khoang 5- 10% tdng sdn lupng.
Ndm 2011, ea nudfc xudt khdu 830.000 tdn eao su thien nhien dgng nguyen lieu, thu ve 3 ty USD, dgt mue cao nhdt ke tii dd trd ve trudc. Ndm nay, xuat khau hon 930.000 tdn eao su sang 70 nude vd khu vyc tren the gioi, trong dd Trung Qude chidm 56%. Do gid xudt khau gidm rdt nhieu so vol 2 ndm qua, nhdt Id tu thang 8/2012
trd di chi cdn bdng mOt niia so vdi ddu ndm, ndn ngogi td thu vd chi bdng khodng hon 70% so vdi ndm ngodi. Didu ddng ndi d ddy la gia eao su cua Vidt Nam lgi bi khdeh hang mua thdp hon nhidu so vdi ngudn hdng tu Malaixia, Indonexia vd Thdi Lan. Nguydn nhdn chinh Id do tinh trgng doanh nghiap Vidt Nam tranh mua, trdnh bdn, khpng kidm sodt ehdt che chdt luong hdng hda vd xudt khdu sang Tmng Qudc ehu ydu bdng eon dudng tidu nggch; ehinh sdch bidn mdu eua hp ludn thay ddi vd thuong nhdn Tmng Qudc mua eao su vdi gid cao cd tinh tuc thdi.
Trong Iflc dd, nude ta lai chua kip thdi cd chinh saeh khuydn khich doanh nghidp ddu tu ePng nghe chd bien ndng cao chat luong sdn pham dd tdng gia tri hang xuat khau. Cdng ty xudt nhap khdu tdng hpp Binh Phudc ddu tu 1,5 trieu USD xdy dyng nhd mdy sdn xudt mfl cao su ly tdm gom 8 mdy. Ndm 2011, Cdng ty ehe bidn va xuat dupe 50.000 tan eao su thu vd 200 trieu USD. Nhung tu ddu ndm 2012 den nay, cao su ly tdm xuat khau bi dp thud 3%, khdng du siic eanh tranh tren thi tmdng, nen phdi ngung sdn xuat. Cdng ty Trdch nhiem huu han Hung Thinh (Tdy Ninh) vua mdi ddu tu 400.000 USD
So 386 (12/2012) KINH Tt CHAU A-THAI BlNH DUONG
11
Chinh sach | Policy Asia-Pacific Economic Review
xdy dung xudng chd bidn cao su ly ldm vi sdn phdm xudt khdu phdi ehju thud 3% cung chua hogt dOng dupc.
Viet Nam hidn Id nude sdn xudt vd xudt khdu cd phd ldn nhdt trdn thd gidi. Ndm 2012, Vidt Nam xudt khdu sang th| trudng nhidu nutx- vd vung ldnh thd gdn 1,6 trieu tdn cd phe hat, dgt gid Id g^n 3,4 ty USD, ldng 23% vd lupng vd 24% vd gid trl so vdi ndm ngodi. Hai Ihj trudng tidu thy cd phe Idn nhdt efla Vidt Nam Id Diie vd My. Nhung thuong hieu efla cd phd Vidt Nam thi hdu nhu khdng dupc ai bidl ddn, khdng cd hinh dnh, khdng thuong hi^u.
Trong luc dd, nhung thuong hidu lung danh vd quen thude vdi ngudi tidu dung khdp thd gidi lai thudc vd cdc "ddu nau" chuydn che bidn va phdn phdi sdn phdm cd phd gdc Vidl Nam thudc nhiing cudng qudc cdng ky nghe. Vide chua chu trpng tdi khdu chd bien dd Idm eho ndng ddn va doanh nghidp Viet Nam xuat khdu cd phe hien nay bdn vdi gid trung binh 15.000 ddng/kg, nhung sau khi qua che bien, gid bdn len tdi 1,5 trieu d6ng/kg, mdt cdc cd phd dupc bdn vol gid 7 USD.
Lai nhudn tii cd phe hien ndm trong tay nhiing tdp dodn kinh te ehd bidn va phdn phdi vdi ban 90%
tdng loi nhudn. Dd gidi quydt dupe bdi todn ndng eao gia tri xudt khdu cd phe, phdi thuc hien cd mot qud trinh ddng bp tu sdn xuat den thu hoaeh, so chd, ddn che bien vd tidu thy. Do dd cdn phdi ed sy lien kdl cua "4 nhd" dd giup cdc dja phuang, doanh nghidp xdy dyng Ihuong hidu sdn phdm. Trong dd, nhd nude phdi cd eo che, chinh sdch, ngudn vdn cy the dd ddu tu xay dung nhiing vung chuydn canh hang hda; eac nha khoa hoc ho trp doanh nghiep vd npng ddn vd lidn bd khoa hpc ky thudt,-.-
Trong II thdng ndm 2012, Viet Nam dd xuat khdu 136.000 tan ehe In gid 205 trieu USD sang thi trudng hon 100 nude vd vung Idnh thd trdn the gidi, vupt kd hogeh ca ndm
I.OOO t^n, ldng hon 12,4% vd lupng vd 11,5% vd gid trj so vdi ndm trudc.
Nhung gid chd xu^t khdu efla Vi$l Nam vdn dang 6 cudi bdng trong s6 cdc nude dang xudi khdu chd, cht bdng 60% gid binh qudn cua thd gidi. Cdc sdn phdm chd Vidt Nam xu5t khdu chii ydu td chd thd gid tr|
kdm xa Kenya, Indonexia, Bangladet. Cdc nude ndy sii dyng thuong hi^u ngdnh la ehdl lupng sdn phdm vd phirtmg thiic bdn hang qua sdn ddu gid ndn trdnh dupc hidn tupng dp gid. Chd xudt khdu cua Vidt Nam ludn bj dp gid bdi khdeh hdng tmng gian nude ngodi vd rdt it doanh nghidp tgo dyng dupc thuong hidu cd uy tin dd xudt khdu chd vdi gid cao. Do chua Idm tdt mdt cdch lidn hodn tu trdng trpt, chdm bdn, ddn thu hdi, chd bien ndn kim nggch xudt khdu sdn pham che binh qudn trdn m<)t ha efla Viet Nam ehi bdng mdt phdn sau eua Kenya.
Dira gia trj gia tang ien 70%
De an Tdi co cdu cdc ngdnh Nong - Ldm - Ngu nghiep dd de ra mue tidu phan dau dgt toe dp ldng trudng GDP binh qudn cua loan ngdnh 2,6 - 3% /ndm giai dogn 2011-2015, lu 3,5 - 4% / ndm trong giai doan 2016-2020. Ddn ndm 2020, thu nhdp cua hd gia dinh ndng thon tdng 2,5 Idn so vdi ndm 2010; gidm ty Id hd ngheo nong thon 2% mdi ndm; ddng thdi tdng cudng qudn ly ldi nguydn thidn nhidn, ndng cao ty lo che phii ning todn qud'c ldn 42 - 43% ndm 2015 vd 45% vdo ndm 2020, gdp phdn thyc hidn chien lupc tdng trudng xanh cua qude gia. Bp Ndng nghiep - Phdt trien ndng thdn eung dd tridn khai dd an "ndng cao gid trj gia tdng trong mdt sd ngdnh hang ndng sdn chu lyc". Theo dd, cdng nghidp chd bid'n npng san dang kdm phdt tridn hien nay sd dupc chii b'png ddu lu phat Wdn de gdp phdn ndng cao gia tri gia ldng cdc sdn phdm ndng nghidp chu yd'u Hi 45 - 50% hidn nay ldn 70% ndm 2020, Hic la mdi
ngdnh hdng cd miic tdng it nhSt 20% gid tri gia tdng trong 10 ndm.
Cho ddn nay, nude ta chi cd rat il Ihuong hidu vd chi dSn dja chl ndi lidng gdn vdi ndng sdn Vi$t Nam. Theo Hi^p hOi Chd Vidt Nam, dd ngdnh chd nude ta phdt trien bdn vOng, xudt khdu vdi sdn luong Idn, gid tri kinh td cao, cdn quy hogch Igi vung ehd mdt cdch khoa hpc, phdi trdng lgi vd logi bd hoan todn nhOng gidng ehd chdt lupng sdn phdm th^p, ndn ed eo hdi thay thd mdi cho todn bd viing nguyen lidu. Ngdnh chd cdn dupc sdp xdp lgi, phdt tridn thuong hidu cu Ih^
eho tiing ddng sdn phdm d tiing th) trudng rieng dd gia tdng gid In.
Doanh nghidp sdn xu^l vd xudt khdu ehd phdi tgo dupc sy gdn k^t theo chudi vdi ngudi trdng chd, djc bidt Id su hop tdc gifla cdc doanh nghiep xudt khdu nhdm trdnh linh trgng phd gia, gay thidt hai chung.
Dd gidi quydt dupc bdi toan ndng cao gid trj xudt khdu cd phe,
"4 nha" (nhd nude, nhd ndng, nha khoa hpc vd nhd doanh nghiep) phdi thyc hidn mdt edeh quyet Uet ed mdt qua trinh ddng bd tu trdng trpt, chdm bdn ddn thu hoach, ch^
bien vd tidu thy hang hda. Trong dd, ddc biet coi trpng khdu eh^
bid'n dd sdm eh^m dut tinh trang
"cti mai lam cho ngudi khac hudng", hode "chay mdu" ca phe thd. Vi nhu cau efla chinh minh va vi Ipi ich eua sy dodn kdt gifla cac nude sdn xudt vd xudt khdu ea phe trong cung hodn cdnh, Vidt Nam ndn chu ddng ddng vai trd quan trpng trong vide hinh thanh mdt t6 chiic gdm nhiing nude xuat khdu cd phd trong khu vue vd trdn th€
gidi de cd quydn ty chu hem va tranh thu sy mdu dich qudc l^
cdng bdng hon. Dd Id cdch tdt nh^t dd thodt khdi tinh tran^ "chdy mau"
cd phe thd va xdy dung an ninh nguydn Iidu ca phd Vidt Nam.
