DO LirdNG HIEU QUA HOAT DONG
KINH TE XA HOI DIA PHl/ONG 0 VIET NAM
Le Quoc Hoi
Tgp chi Kinh ti vd Phdt triin, Trudng Dgi hgc Kinh ti Qudc ddn EmaU: [email protected]
H5 Dinh Bao
Khoa Kinh ti hoc, Tru&ng Dgi hoc Kinh ti Qudc ddn Email: [email protected]
Nguyin Thanh Tiing
Vien Nghien cieu Kinh ti vd Chinh sdch, Dgi hoc Kinh te - Dgi hgc Qudc gia Hd Npi Email: [email protected]
Ngaynhan: 20/8/2016 Ngay nhan ban sua: 20/9/2016 Ngay duyet dang: 25/10/2016
Tdm tat:
Nghiin citu ndy duac thuc Men v&i muc tieu ldn ddu tiin phdt triin mpt phuang phdp xdy dung chi sd tdng hap nhdm ddnh gid hiiu qud hogt dpng kinh ti vTmd cua cdc dia phucmg a
Viet Nam trong cd nu&c theo cdc nhom chi tiiu khac nhau: (i) Kinh ti: (U) Kinh ti theo dinh hucmg: (iii) Kinh ti-xa hpi: vd (iv) Kinh te-xa hdi-thi chi. Tren ca s& phuang phdp ndy, kit qud tinh todn cho hieu qud hogt dpng ciia cdc dia phuang trong cd nu&c ndm 2014 ddi v&i a cdc nhdm chi tieu ndy cho thdy chiin luac phdt triin kinh ti xd hpi cdc dia phuang Id mdt cdn ddi giira cdc muc tiiu tdng trud'ng vd muc tiiu xd hpi, thiiu tinh bin vitng vd hdi hda. Nhieu dia phuang chit yiu tap trung theo dudi muc tieu tdng tru&ng kinh te md bd qua cdc khia cgnh ca cdu, xd hdi vd the chi. Nguac lgi, mpt sd dia phuang dgt duac kit qud tdt vi mat xd hpi nhung lgi hgn chi trong tdng truang. Diiu ndy de dga din muc tieu tdng tru&ng vdphdt triin kinh te ciia cdc dia phuang trong ddi hgn.
Tu- khoa: Hieu qua boat ddng kinh ti vT md, Md bmh ISEPl, Md hinh SBM, lang phi/thiiu hyt
A measure of Provincial Macroeconomic Performance in Vietnam
Abstract
The study aimed at developing a methodology for constructing a macroeconomic performance index at provincial level for the first time in Vietnam based on 4 groups of measurements:
(i) Economic indicators: (ii) oriented economic indicators: (Hi) socio-economic indicators:
and (iv) economic - social - institutional indicators. Applying the methodology on the 2014 empirical data of aU provinces, the findings show that the socio-economic development strategy implemented by those provinces did not provide balanced outcomes between growth and social objectives, sustainability and inclusiveness. Many provinces focused on economic growth at the cost of structural change, equality and institutional transformation. In contrast, many provinces were successful in improving equality but not in growth. Those facts threaten long term development objectives of the provinces.
Keywords: Macroeconomic Performance, ISEPI Model, Slack Based Model (SBM), input/
output Slack
So233 thdng 11/2016 40 kiniityiiiittrieo
1. Gidi thieu
Trong danh gia hoat dpng kinh ti vT md cua mpt nen kinb ti, cae nha nghien cun, hoach djnb chinh sach thudng tap trang vao cac khfa canb nhu tde dp tang tradng, muc dp in djnh gia, that nghiep, va can can thuong mai. Mdi mpt tieu chi nay chi the bien dupe mdt chiiu nhat djnh va cd the cd sy danh ddi giua cac chieu dd trong dieu hanh chinb sach. Cac chi sd phd bien nhat dupe su dung la: (i) Chi si Misery; (ii) Chi sd Calmfors; va (iii) Magic Diamond.
Ngoai nhung khia canh phd bien do trong danh gia boat ddng kinh te vT md, ttong thdi gian gan day, cac nha nghien cira cflng tich hpp them mot si cac chieu can ban khac nhu tham hut ngan sach {%
GDP), chi phi va gia ca, dieu kien lao ddng va chit lupng cudc sdng, mdi tradng kinh doanh, tiem nang thj trudng,... de phat trien cae chi sd tdng hop khac nhu EPI (Khramov & Lee, 2013) hay ISEPI (Ldpez- Tamayo & cpng sy, 2014). Ve co ban cac chi sd nay van dupe xay dyng dya tten viec ap dat trpng sd eho eac chieu tuong ung mpt each chu quan va ed djnb gifta cac thai ky va cac quan sat.
Tuy nhien, dieu nay la khdng pbfl hop vdi dieu kien mdi nen kinh te trong mdi giai doan vdi nhung mye tieu uu tien khac nhau va tham chi la danh ddi.
Nhu vay, viec so sanh giua eac nen kinb te se gap rat nhieu khd khan.
Viee khac phyc tdn tai nay cd the thyc hien dupe thdng qua viec xay dyng mdt chi sd tdng hpp nhung khdng ap dat ttpng sd chu quan eho cac chieu do ludng. Dieu nay cd the dat dupe bang viec ap dung nguyen ly gan ttpng sd dya vao ban chat cua sd lieu, de sd lieu bpc Id dac tinh thdng ke khi xay dyng ehi tieu tdng hpp. Khi dd, topng sd cua mdi chi tieu thanh phan khdng edn dupe xac djnb mdt each ehu quan, ma dya toen cac dac tinh thdng ke ciia timg chuoi si lieu. Dieu nay cho phep chi tieu tdng hpp phan anh chinb xac hon muc dp quan topng cung nhu ddng gdp cua tiing chi tieu thanh phan. Trong si nhung phuong phap dya tren nguyen tac nay, ky thuat quy hoach tiiyin tinh vdi cac khai niem vi dudng bien (Lovell, 1995) td ra mi viet ban ca trong danh gia bieu qua kinb ti vT md. Cho din nay, da ed kha nhieu cac nghien cira phat trien theo hudng nay nhim xay dyng mot chi sd chung cap quic gia.
Lovell (1995) su dung md hinh FDH (Free disposal hull model) de danh gia bieu qua hoat ddng vT md cua nin kinh te Dai Loan giai doan 1970-1988 trong
mii quan he tu'ong ddi vdi cac nen kinh te khac.
Cflng tren co sd md hinh nay, Vfl Kim Dung & cpng sy (2015) da thyc hien tinh toan bieu qua kinh te vT md eua Viet Nam so vdi ASEAN +3. Ttr dd chi ra nguy ea tyt hau cua Viet Nam so vdi cac nen kinh te khae trong khu -vye.
Tuy nhien, khi danh gia hieu qua boat dpng kinh te vT md d cap dp tinh, mdt sd chieu danh gia se khdng edn ed y nghTa, dac biet la can can thuong mai. Dieu quan trpng trong tinh toan chi sd danh gia tdng hpp nay la lya chpn dupe nhflng chieu phu hpp vdi muc tieu ma cac chinh quyen cap tinh dang theo dudi. Tren ca sd khung ly thuyet cua Lovell (1995), Saboo & Acharya (2012) da lya chpn 3 chieu de danh gia hieu qua boat dpng vT md 22 bang cua An Dp: GDP cap bang; chi sd giam phat GDP cap bang;
va can can ngan sach bang.
Hien nay, tai Viet Nam van ehua ed bp chi sd nao cd the danh gia mdt each khach quan bieu qua boat ddng kinb te vT md cap tinh. Hai bd chi sd dupe cac nha nghien cira sit dyng nhieu bao gdm Chi sd nang lyc canb tranh cap tinh (PCI) va Chi sd Hieu qua Quan trj va hanh chinb cdng cap tinh (PAPI). Tuy nhien, hai bd chi sd nay mdi chi phan anh mpt chieu ket qua cua viec dieu banh chinh sach vT md d cap dp tinh. Trong khi PCI danh gia va xep hang cac tinh trong viee xay dung mdi tradng kinb doanh tbuan loi cho phat trien doanh nghiep dan doanh, thi PAPI lai tap trang tim hieu hieu qua edng tae dieu hanh, thyc thi chinb sach va cung img djch vu edng. Rd rang toong viec danh gia giu'a cae dia phucmg tbi bd ehi sd PCI hoan toan cd uu the bon so vdi PAPI.
Tuy nhien, PCI khdng danh gia dupe cae yeu td ve ngudn lye ma chi tap tung vao yeu td mdi tradng kinh doanh ciia cae dja phucmg.
Trong kbi dd, viec su dung bieu qua eac ngudn lyc ve vdn, lao ddng se dan tdi hieu qua hoat dpng kinb te vT md cao bon. De danh gia day du nhat ve hieu qua boat ddng kinb te vT md, chi sd PCI cung dupe xem xet nhu la mdt chieu muc tieu tuong ty nhfl-ng chieu mue tieu ve cac yeu td ngudn lyc. Ddng thdi, Viet Nam la rapt qudc gia dang phat toien theo hudng edng nghiep hda nen myc tieu ma cac dja phuong theo dudi khdng chi bao gdm tang tra'dng cao, dn djnh lam phat, ty le ed viec lam cao, ma cdn bao gdm ca nhung muc tieu ve ca cau nganh thay ddi theo hudng tfch cue ban; thu hut dau tu' tryc tiep nudc ngoai... Do vay, viec xay dyng mdt chi sd tdng hpp danh gia hieu qua boat ddng vT md dya tten
Sd 233 thdng 11/2016 41
nhflng chieu myc tieu theo dudi eua cac dja phuong tai Viet Nam la vd cung can thiet.
Nghien ciru nay ap dyng khung ly thuyet cua Lovell (1995) di binh thanh vi mat phuong phap luan mpt be thdng ehi tieu tdng hop danh gia ket qua boat ddng cua cac dja phuang d Viet Nam. Sd lieu thye tien 2014 ehu yeu dupe sit dung de minh hpa phuong phap thay vi di vao de xuat eac chinh sach cy the. Ngoai phan gidi thieu, nghien cira bao gdm 4 phan: (i) Tdng ket cac nghien cira ben quan; (ii) Md hinh ly thuyet; (iii) Ket qua thyc nghiem; va (iv) Ket luan.
2. Md hinh Iy thuylt
Nghien cira nay dupe thyc bien nham danh gia, so sanh boat ddng kinb te vT md cap tinh eua 63 tinh/
thanh cua Viet Nam nam 2014. Do do, nhdm tac gia thyc hien xay dung mpt sd chi tieu tdng hpp dya tren cac phuong phap khac nhau nham dua ra mdt eai nhin khach quan nhat khi xep hang cac dja phucmg.
2.1. Phuang phdp binh quan trong so
Chi sd do ludng bieu qua boat ddng kinh te eiia cac dja phuong theo phuang phap binh quan trpng sd dupe tinh toan dua tren cdng thirc:
£-p/ = S ^ i / ^
Trong dd, n la chi tieu danh gia, X. la chi tieu danh gia thii i. Cac chi tieu nay deu dupe chuin hda vi cung mdt thang do [0,7] trade kbi dua vao tinh toan de dam bao muc dp quan trpng cua mdi biin sd la nhu nhau.
2.2. Chi sd ISEPI
Chi sd ISEPI' cua Ldpez-Tamayo & cdng su (2014) dupe tinh theo cdng thuc:
ISEPI= 100(1+1 *[W<yar(Y)*WJ) NaiI=(Z*W)/(W"*R*W)
Trong dd: var(Y) la ma ttan hiep phuang sai cua Y, vdi Yf = Xf
Xf
X^ la chi tieu danh gia thu f
Z la vector cac chi tieu danh gia da dupe chuin bda: Z=(Z,,Z,,...Z^)
-•^f=^'^"'^ysd(x,)
W la vector trpng si ding nhit: W= (Z|,Zj,...Z ) vdi:Z = Z=...= Z,
R la ma tran tuong quan giua cae biin sau kbi da chuan hda.
2.3. Mo hinh SBM
Md binh nay dya tten lap luan cho ring mdt DMU
chi dupe eoi la tdi uu niu d DMU nay hdi tu ca hai dieu kien: (1) chi si hieu qua tmyin thdng theo bang 1 (nam tten dudng bien) va (2) khdng tdn tai miie lang pbf/thieu but d bat ky mdt diu ra nao. Trong md hinb FDH cua Lovell (1995) thi hai diiu kien nay dupe phan tich va dua ra ket luan mpt each rieng re.
Md hinb SBM ket hop ca 2 thdng tin ve chi sd bieu qua trayen thdng va miic lang phi/thieu hyt ddi vdi mdi dau ra thanh mpt thudc do vd hudng de do ludng hieu qua kinh te vT md tdng hpp. Trong sd dd.
Tone (2001 va 2003) va Morita & cdng sy (2005) la nhiing nghien cira dau tien do ludng hieu qua su: dyng ky thuat SBM trong bai toan DEA. Tone (2001) cho rang neu mpt DMU la hieu qua ttong md hinb FDH trayen thdng tbi md hinh dd cflng hieu qua frong md hinh SBM. Nhu vay cd the thay ehi sd hieu qua frong md hinb SBM chiia dung nhieu thdng tin bon so vdi md binh thdng thudng. Vf du, mpt DMU cd diem bieu qua bang 1 ttong md hinh trayen thdng ed tdn tai lang phi/thieu hut d mpt dau ra nao dd thi ttong md binh SBM, DMU nay se cd gia trj bieu qua tuong img nhd ban 1.
3. Ket qua thuc nghiem
3.1. Lua chgn chi tiiu thanh phdn
Nghien cira nay do ludng 4 nhdm chi tieu vdi cac dau ra khac nhau de danh gia cae khia canh kinh te-xa hpi khae nhau eua cac tinh/thanh phi: (i)Tdng tru&ng kinh ti (g) dupe thu thap tii sd lieu cua Ting cyc Thdng ke va Bao cao Kinb te - Xa bdi hang nam cua cae dja phuong; (ii) On dinh gid cd (p) do ludng muc dp dn djnh cua gia ca, bang I tru- ty le lam phat tinh theo chi sd gia tieu dung cua cae dja phuong.
Chi sd gia tieu dung dupe thu thap tii si lieu eua Tdng cyc Thdng ke; (iii) Mite dp cdi thien viic ldm (e) do ludng tde dp tang cua ty le lam viee cua dan sd tii 15 tudi ttd len theo Bao cao Diiu tta Lao ddng viec lam bang nam eua Tdng cyc Thing ke; (iv) Tdc dp chuyen dich ca cdu (ip) dupe do ludng miic dp chuyen djch eo ciu kinh ti trong mdt thdi ky nhit djnh; (v) Cdi thiin mite sdng ddn cu (I) do ludng chat lupng lupng cudc sdng cua ngudi dan eac dja phuong. Cai thien muc sing dan cu dupe do bing tdc dp tang cua ty le bd tten miic ngheo, hay phin bii cila ty le bd ngheo vdi 1; va (vi) Chisd ndng lire cgnh tranh cdp tinh (PCI) xip hang chit lupng diiu banh kinb te cua chinh quyen dia phuong frong viee tao lap mdi tradng chinb sach thuan lpi cho viec phat trien doanh nghiep dan doanh.
Trong nghien cira nay, dau vao dupe eoi la gidng
Sd 233 thdng 11/2016 42 trim
nhau gifta cac dja phuang, vdi gia djnh rang cac tinh deu dupe ap dyng mdt ca ehi chinh sach tii nhu nhau do Chinb phu di ra. Trong cac nghien cuu cua Lovell (1995) va Lovell & cdng sy (1995), viee dat gia dinh cac nudc cd cung mdt dau vao la ca che chinh sach gidng nhau cd the qua manh.
Cae dau ra dupe chia thanh 4 nhdm vdi myc tieu danh gia cac khfa canh khae nhau cua boat ddng kinh te vT md cua cae tinh, bao gdm:
+ Nhdm 1 - nhdm chi tieu kinh te: g, p, e -I- Nhdm 2 - nhdm chi tieu kinh ti theo djnh hudng: g, p, e -i- cp
+ Nhdm 3 - nhdm ehi tieu kinh ti-xa hdi:g, p, e, cp-Hl
+ Nhdm 4 - nhdm chi tieu kinh te-xa bdi-the ehe:
g, p, e, cp, 1 + PCI
3.2. Kit qua thirc nghiim
3.2.1. Nhdm chi tieu kinh ti (g, p, e) - md hinh 1 Md hinb 1 xem xet hieu qua boat dpng cila 63 tinh/thanh dya tren nhdm chi tieu kinh te thuan tiiy:
tang tra'dng, dn djnh gia va viee lam. Vdi chi ba chieu dua vao tinh toan, khdng ed nhieu sy chenh lech dang ke gifta cac phuong phap khac nhau, dac biet gifta phuong phap binh quan ttpng sd va ehi sd ISEPI.
- Phuang phdp binh qudn trong sd
Theo phucmg phap nay (xem bang 1), nhdm cac Bang 1: Xep hang hieu qua hoat dong kinh tl vl mo cac dia phuong theo cac nhomchi tieu dua tren
phuong phap binh quan trong s6 (Nam 2014) Tinh
Ha Tinh Lao Cai Thai Nguyen Da Nang Binh Thuan VInh Phuc Ninh Binh Ddng Thap VTnh Long Dien Bien Tuyen Quang Binh Phudc Lai Chau Lang Son Hda Binh Bac Kan Phil Tho An Giang Tra Vinh Thai Binh Kon Tum Ninh Thuan Ba Ria-Viing Tau Hai Duong Long An Tay Ninh Quang Ninh Lam Ddng Cao Bang Bic Giang
MHl 1 29 2 13 28 6 11 32 4 16 20 3 63
9 31 10 26 51 46 22 42 5 40 45 39 38 58 43 41 7
MHZ 1 25 3 17
2 7 6 30
8 20 29 5 27 9 28 13 35 48 23 16 12 4 31 45 39 26 53 15 44 10
MH3 1 9 4 29
6 15 13 34 16 2 7 17 3 11 18 14 33 55 26 25 8 5 40 47 51 37 58 21 23 12
MH4 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 10 11 13 15 17 18 19 24 29 35 55 22 25 16 9 39 46 33 30 52 20 47 14
Tinh Sdc Trang Son La Thira Thien Hue TP H i Chi Minh Khanh Hda Nam Dinh Gia Lai Ha Nam Thanh Hda Kien Giang Can Tha Tien Giang Hung Yen Phil Yen Binh Duong Yen Bai Quang Ngai Binh Dinh Quang Nam CaMau Hau Giang Ha Giang Nghe An HaNoi Ddng Nai Quang Binh Hai Phdng Dak Lak Ben Tre Bac Lieu Dik Ndng Quang Tri Bac Ninh
M H l 49 57 19 33 35 12 48 15 17 25 27 62 50 60 14 37 34 36 8 30 52 56 55 53 21 18 24 54 44 59 47 23 61
MH2 51 56 21 42 37 14 50 19 22 32 38 63 47 61 18 43 36 46 11 41 55 58 54 59 33 24 40 52 49 60 57 34 62
MH3 54 32 30 56 42 22 38 28 20 39 46 63 50 59 35 36 31 44 10 49 57 19 43 61 45 24 52 48 53 60 41 27 62
MH4 51 44 23 34 36 21 49 32 12 28 40 63 56 61 31 53 26 37 6 58 54 41 42 60 50 27 48 45 43 59 57 38 62
* MHl, 2, 3va4 la cdc md hinh sit dung v&i 4
** Luu y: Thie tu sdp xep dua theo ket qua xip .Chisd ISEPI
nhdm chi tieu do lucmg hgng nhdm 4 md hinh SBM
S6 233 thdng 11/2016 43
kinlityiiat trien
Bang 2: Xip hang hieu qua hoat dong kinh te vT mo cac dja phuong theo cac nhomchi tieu dua trSn chi so ISEPI (Nam 2014)
Tinh Ha TTnh Lao Cai Thai Nguyen Da Nang Binh Thuan VTnh Phuc Ninh Binh Ddng Thap Vinh Long Dien Bien Tuyen Quang Binh Phudc Lai Chau Lang Son Hda Binh Bac Kan Phil Tho An Giang Tra Vinh Thai Binh Kon Tum Ninh Thuan Ba Rja-Viang Tau Hai Duong Long An Tay Ninh Quang Ninh Lam Ddng Cao Bang Bac Giang
MHl 1 26 2 15 30 9 10 39 7 18 16 4 62
11 37 12 34 52 47 23 40 3 43 46 38 31 58 48 41 6
MH2 1 26 2 19
3 11
7 36 12 25 23 6 16 9 28 17 40 50 21 15 5 4 34 45 30 22 51 14 42 13
MH3 1 9 3 29
6 21 12 38 23 4 7 15
2 11 17 14 37 56 20 25 5 8 44 47 42 34 58 18 24 13
MH4 1 3 2 5 4 9 7 14 15 16 12 20 10 22 23 35 37 54 21 25 11 8 39 44 29 27 48 18 50 17
Tinh Sdc Trang San La Thu'a Thien Hue TP Hd Chi Minh Khanh Hda Nam Dinh Gia Lai Ha Nam Thanh Hda Kien Giang Can Tha Tien Giang Hung Yen Phil Yen Binh Duang Yen Bai Quang Ngai Binh Dinh Quang Nam CaMau Hau Giang Ha Giang Nghe An Ha Ndi Ddng Nai Quang Binh Hai Phdng Dak Lak Ben Tre Bac Lieu Dak Ndng Quang Tri Bac Ninh
MHl 44 56 20 28 35 8 42 13 17 25 22 6!
53 60 14 29 32 36 5 33 54 57 55 49 19 21 24 51 45 59 50 27 63
MH2 49 53 27 39 37 10 46 18 24 33 31 62 48 61 20 38 35 47 8 43 56 59 55 57 29 32 44 54 52 60 58 41 63
MH3 48 28 32 55 43 19 35 26 16 39 40 62 51 59 33 36 31 46 10 52 57 22 45 61 41 27 53 50 54 60 49 30 63
MH4 49 40 24 32 36 19 42 30 13 28 34 63 56 60 31 52 26 38 6 58 55 43 41 61 51 33 53 46 47 59 57 45 62
* MHl, 2, 3 vd 4 Id cdc md hinh sie dung v&i 4
** Luu y: Thie tu sdp xep dua theo ket qud xep
nhdm chi tieu do lu&ng hgng nhom 4 mo hinh SBM.
dja phuong dan dau bao gdm Ha TTnh (1) va Thai Nguyen (2) vdi mue tang tradng vupt trdi trong;
Binh Phudc (3) va Bic Kan (10) vdi miic gia i n djnb; VTnh Long (4) va VTnh Phuc (6) cai thien trong viec lam nam 2014. Trong sd nay, nhiiu dia phuong cd Pi bai tieu chi trd len deu dat hieu qua cao nhu Ha TTnh va Thai Nguyen (tang tradng va i n djnh gia);
VTnh Phuc ( i n djnh gia va eai thien viee lam);...
Ngupc lai, nhdm dia phuang dirng cudi bang xep hang lai chi dat s i diem rit thip nhu Lai Chau (1,79), Tiin Giang (1,8), Bic Ninh (2,1), Phu Yen (2,26) va Bac Lieu (2,54), d i n g nghTa vdi muc dp hieu qua boat ddng thip tren ea ba tieu ehi danh gia.
Vdi dac diem trpng sd nhu nhau, phuong phap
nay cho thay sy ddng deu trong phan bd diem hieu qua boat ddng eua cac dja phuong. Cd 31 tinh/thanh phd cd diem bieu qua tren mire trang binh 3,666 diem.
-Chisd ISEPI
Xep hang dya tren ehi s i ISEPI (xem bang 2) khdng cd qua nhieu sy khac biet so vdi phucmg phap binh quan trpng sd. Mue dp chenh lenh trang binh giua bai phuong phap nay chi la 2,3 bac x i p hang.
Trong dd, khac biet ldn nhat la 8 bac x i p hang tai Yen Bai (hang 29 so vdi hang 37) va Phii Thp (hang 34 so vdi hang 26). Ddng thdi, phan phdi diim bieu qua boat ddng kinh te vT md bat diu thay ddi, khi chi cdn 28 dja phuong cd chi sd ISEPI cao hem mue
Sd 233 thdng 11/2016 44
ti-ung binh ea nudc la 2,838 diim.
Trong khi dd, bai nhdm dja phuang cd hieu qua hoat ddng kinb ti vT md tit nhit va kem nhit khdng cd su thay ddi so vdi phuong phap binh quan trpng sd. Nhdm din diu vin bao gim cac dja phuong nhu Ha TTnh (1), Thai Nguyen (2), Binh Phudc (4), VTnh Long (7),... vdi thay ddi thii hang khdng dang ke.
Tuong ty, Bac Ninh, Lai Chau va Tien Giang van la nhftng dja phucmg nam cudi bang xep hang.
- Phuang phdp SBM
Vdi trpng sd thay ddi, xep hang dya tren hieu qua boat ddng trong md hinh SBM (xem bang 3) cd su thay ddi rd ret bon so vdi phuang phap binh
quan trpng sd, vdi mire chenh lech trang binh so vdi phuang phap binh quan trpng sd la 9,6 bae xep bang. Dang chu y nhat la trudng hpp Bac Kan va Phu Thp ehi xep hang 51 va 59 theo phuang phap SBM, ttong khi hai dia phuang nay xep hang 10 va 26, tuong ung vdi mirc chenh lech 41 va 33 bac xep hang. Dieu nay eho thay rang viec Bac Kan cd mpt ehi tieu dat hieu qua vupt trdi khdng ddng nghTa vdi viec dja phuang nay cd hieu qua boat ddng kinh te vT md tdt.
Tuy nhien, khdng cd nhieu sy khae biet toong xep hang cua nhdm dan dau, vdn bao gdm nhiing dia phuang vupt trdi tren ca hai hoac ba tieu ehi danh gia. Ngupc lai, ngoai Bac Lieu (61), An Giang (62)
Bang 3: Xep hang hieu qua hoat dong kinh te vi rao cac dia phuo-ng theo cac nhdm chi tieu dua tren mo hinh SBM (Nam 2014)
Tinh Ha Tinh Lao Cai Thai Nguyen Da Nang Binh Thuan VTnh Phuc Ninh Binh Ddng Thap VTrih Long Dien Bien Tuyen Quang Binh Phudc Lai Chau Lang Son Hda Binh Bac Kan Phii Tho An Giang Tra Vinh Thai Binh Kon Tum Ninh Thuan Ba Ria-Vung Tau Hai Ducmg Long An Tay Ninh Quang Ninh Lam Ddng Cao Bang Bic Giang
* MHl, 2, 3 vd 4 lde
**Litiiy: Thit tu sdp MHl
I 24
2 10 36 5 8 60
4 15 18 3 47 33 54 51 59 62 46 49 22 7 58 50 30 27 44 53 48 6
dc md hi xep dua
MH2 1 22 3 31
2 5 10 44 6 27 52 4 7 17 14 35 26 8 11 12 9 16 20 21 19 13 18 15 23 33
nh sti dm theo ket
MH3 1 7 4 29
5 9 16 53 10 2 6 11
3 15 12 8 13 14 26 25 17 18 23 30 24 19 22 21 20 27
g v&i 4 n qua xep 1
MH4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
hdm chi gng nhdi
Tinh Sdc Trang Son La Thua Thien Hue TP Hd Chi Minh Khanh Hda Nam Djnh Gia Lai Ha Nam Thanh Hda Kien Giang Can Tho Tien Giang Hung Yen Phu Yen Binh Duong Yen Bai Quang Ngai Binh Dinh Quang Nam CaMau Hau Giang Ha Giang Nghe An Ha Ndi Ddng Nai Quang Binh Hai Phdng Dak Lak Ben Tre Bac Lieu Dak Ndng Quang Tri Bac Ninh tieu do lu&ng n 4 md hinh SBM
MHl 32 29 16 31 39 11 28 17 14 20 25 38 40 45 12 23 19 35 9 34 57 56 52 43 21 13 42 26 37 61 55 41 63
MH2 32 30 29 40 36 28 34 38 47 45 43 42 24 50 48 46 39 56 41 51 58 60 53 55 54 37 57 25 49 62 61 59 63
MH3 56 28 41 38 34 37 31 35 36 42 39 40 43 46 45 48 33 55 32 44 61 51 59 49 47 52 50 58 57 60 54 62 63
MH4 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63
Sd 233 thdng 11/2016 45
va Biic Ninh (63), nhdm dja phuong cd hieu qua boat lipng thap nhat bao gdm ca Phu Thp (59) va Ddn^ Tb p (60), vdn xep bang trang binh theo hai pbuo.ig phap dau tien.
Ngoai ra, ket qua tinh toan cflng cho thay bieu qua boat dpng cua cac dja phuong ti-en phuong dien kinh te la tuong ddi cao, dat tmng binh 0,961 diem.
Ddng thdi, cd tdi 40 tinh/thanh cd diem hieu qua hoat ddng cao bon mite tmng binh nay.
3.2.2. Nhdm chi tiiu kinh ti theo dinh hudng (g, p, e + (p) - md hinh 2
Viec dua them chi tieu chuyen djch ca cau cho thay sy thay ddi dang ke ttong ket qua boat ddng kinh te tai met sd dia phuong, dac biet khi tinh toan theo phuong phap SBM. Theo hai phuong phap diu tien, chi cd 5 tinh thay ddi nhiiu hon 20 bac. Muc dp thay ddi tmng binh ttong xep hang giua khi them mdt tieu ehi theo hai phuong phap diu tien lin lupt ia 6,3 va 7,5 bac. Trong kbi dd, sy thay dii toong xip hang giua bai md hinh theo phuang phap SBM toai dai tor giam 36 bae tdi tang 54 bae. Miic dp thay ddi tinng binh theo phuang phap nay la 17 bac. Ding thdi, muc dp bieu qua tmng binh cung nhu sd dja phuong toen tmng binh giam nhanh theo phucmg phap SBM. Diiu nay cho thiy ring chuyin djch co cau dupe danh gia quan topng hon so vdi cac chi tieu khac tai nhieu dia phuong toen ca nudc.
Ve CO ban, ca ba phuong phap diu cho thiy sy tang bang nhanh chdng ciia mdt sd dja phuong nhu Lai Chau, Lam Ding, Binh Thuan, Tra Vinh, va Kon Tum. Nhiing dja phuang nay diu tang tor toen 20 din tten 40 bac xep bang theo ca ba phuong phap. Tuy nhien, frong khi khdng cd nhiiu dja phuong ed xip hang giam manh theo phuang phap diu tien binh quan frpng si va chi si ISEPI, tinh toan theo md hinh SBM lai cho thiy mdt si tinh nhu Binh Duong, Tuyen Quang, Ding Nai, Thanh Hda hay Quang Nam cd bieu qua boat ddng giam nhanh ttong mii tuong quan so vdi cae dja phuang khac.
- Phuang phdp binh qudn trgng sd
Theo phuang phap nay, mdt si dja phuang vin nam frong nhdm din diu nhu Ha TTnh (1); Thai Nguyen (3); Ninh Thuan (4); Binh Phudc (5);.'.. Cac chi tieu theo phuang dien kmh ti dat bieu qua cao ket hpp vdi tic dp chuyin djch ca ciu in djnh giup nhdm dja phuang nay duy tri dupe vj tri din diu.
Ngupc lai, nhdm cac dja phuong cd boat ddng kinb te vT md kem nhit cflng khdng cd nhiiu thay dii frong xep hang: Tiin Giang (63); Bic Ninh (62);
Phu Yen (61); Bac Lieu (60). Dang chii y la sy cai thien cua tinh Lai Chau, khi tang tii hang 63 theo phuang dien kinh ti len hang 27 kbi do ludng theo phuong dien kinh ti theo djnh hudng.
Da ed 22 dja phuang tang hang khi xep hang dya ti-en phuong dien kinh ti theo djnh hudng. Trong dd, Lai Chau, Kon Tum, Lam Ddng va Binh Thuan la nhirng tinh cd sy thay ddi thir bae an tupng nhat, diu tang tii 26 tdi 36 bac so vdi xep hang frong md hinh 1. Dac biet, Binh Thuan la dja phuang cd sy dot pha ldn khi tang tii bac 28 ttong phuong dien kinh ti len den bang 2.
Ngupc lai, khi them tieu chi chuyen djch ea ciu, da ed 40 tinh cd sy suy giam ttong xep bang so vdi md hinh 1. Tuy nhien, sy thay ddi nay la khdng dang ke, khi chi cd bay tinh giam tii 10 bac xip hpig ttd len. Trong dd, Hai Phong la tinh ed sy thay ddi 1cm nhat, giam tii hang 24 len bang 40. Mdt sd dja phuang ed xep hang giam nhu Ddng Nai (giam 12 bae). Can Tha, Ca Mau va Quang Trj (cimg giam 11 bac).
Diem hieu qua tmng binh theo phuong phap binh quan ttpng sd giam tu 3,666 diim theo nhdm chi tieu thii nhat xudng cdn 3,018 diim theo nhdm chi tieu kinh te theo djnh hudng. Tuy nhien, sd dja phuong dat fren tmng binh khdng cd sy thay ddi dang ki nao, giam tii 31 xudng cdn 29 dja phuong (tuang ung vdi 46% sd tinh/thanh fren ca nudc).
-Chisd ISEPI
x i p bang dya fren chi sd ISEPI khdng cd nhiiu sy khac biet so vdi phuang phap binh quan frpng si.
Theo dd, nhdm eac dja phuang bao gdm Ha Tinh (1), Thai Nguyen (2), Ninh Thuan (4) hay Binh Phudc (6) vin din diu frong bang xip hang. Trong khi dd, Bic Ninh, Tiin Giang, Phu Yen va Bac Lieu van nam la bin dja phuang ed boat ddng kinh ti vT md kem nhit theo chi si nay.
Chi cd 18 dja phuong cd sy cai thien frong bang xep hang theo chi si ISEPI. Ngoai trit 5 dja phuang la Lai Chau (tang 46 bae), Kon Tum (tang 35 bae).
Lam Ddng (tang 34 bae), Binh Thuan (tang 27 bac) va Tra Vinh (tang 26 bac); cae dja phuong edn lai chi cd sy thay ddi nhe (dudi 10 bae) so vdi bang xip hang ISEPI theo phuang dien kinb ti. Dang chii y, Binh Thuan va Kon Tum da -vuon len nhdm 10 dja phucmg dan dau, lan lupt xep hang 3 va 5, nhd cd sy chuyen djch ca cau manh me frong nam 2014 (14,2°
va 10,7°).
Tuong ty phuang phap binh quan ttpng si, Hai
So 233 thdng 11/2016 46
KinlitaJ»liat trien
Phdng la dja phuang ed sy giam bac dang ke nhat, giam 20 bac tii hang 24 xudng hang 44 theo phuang dien kinh ti theo djnh hudng. Ngoai ra, cd tdi 40 dja phuang khac ed sy suy giam trong xip hang hieu qua boat ddng, du mite dp thay ddi la khdng dang ke.
Khae vdi hai phuong phap cdn lai, diem hieu qua trung binh tfnh theo chi si ISEPI tang nhe khi dua them tieu chf chuyen djch ca cau. ISEPI tmng binh dat 2,877, tang nhe so vdi nhdm ehi tieu kinh te thuan tiiy. Ddng thdi, sd dja phuang boat dpng fren miic tmng binh la khdng thay ddi vdi 28 dia phuong (tuong img vdi 44,4%).
- Phuang phdp SBM
Thay ddi dang ke nhat khi dua them tieu cbf chuyen dich eo cau la sy giam rd ret trong diem hieu qua boat ddng kinh ti vT md. Muc diem trang binh ca nudc giam tii 0,961 diem xudng cdn 0,859 diim, ddng thdi, ehi edn 22 dja phuong dat tten mite tmng binh (so vdi 40 dia phuang khi xep hang theo nhdm chi tieu ve kinh te). Tuy nhien, cflng gidng nhu bai phuong phap dau tien, nhdm dja phuong din diu va nam cudi bang xep hang theo phuong phap SBM cflng khdng cd nhieu thay ddi khi so sanh giua hai nhdm tieu cbf.
Ngoai trii Binh Tbuan va Kon Tum, An Giang va Lai Chau cflng la hai dja phuong cd sy eai thien ldn ttong boat dpng kinb te vT md, dac biet trong chuyen djch CO eau, va vuon len nhdm dan dau. Theo do.
An Giang va Lai Chau tang lan lupt tii bang 62 va 47 len bang 8 va 7 khi tinh theo phuong phap SBM.
Ngoai nhung dja phuong nay, Hda Binh, Ba Rja - Vflng Tau, Lam Ddng, Thai Binh,... deu la nhiing dja phuang cd sy tang hang dang ke so khi xep hang theo nhdm ehi tieu kinh te.
Ngupc lai, Binh Duong, Tuyen Quang, Ddng Nai, Thanh Hda va Quang Nam la nhung dja phuang ed suy giam trong xep hang boat ddng kinb te ldn nhit, tten 30 bac. Trong dd, Tuyen Quang giam tii bang 18 xuing hang 52; Binh Duong va Thanh Hda lin lupt giam tii hang 12 va 14 xudng hang 48 va 47.
3.2.3. Nhdm chi tieu kinh te-xa hoi (g,p, e,(p + V)-md hinh 3
Md hinh 3 bd sung chi tieu ve cai thien mite sing dan cu nhim danh gia khia canb kinh ti-xa hdi cua eac dia phuong. Ca ba phuong phap deu cho thiy sy thay ddi dang ki ttong thii bac xip hang cua cac dja phuang khi so sanh vdi kit qua ttong md hinh 2.
Theo dd, mite chenh lech xip hang trang binh giua md hinh I va md hinh 2 theo ba phuong phap lin
lupt la 7,9 bac (SBM); 7,1 bac (binh quan lui .'-i.
va 6,7 (ISEPI). Tuy nhien, trong khi sy thay d( nav kha tuong ddng giua phuong phap binh quan i rpng si va chi si ISEPI, md hinh SBM lai khdng cho thay dieu tuong ty.
- Phuang phdp binh qudn trgng sd
Khi dua them ehi tieu ve cai thien miie sdng dan eu, mpt sd dja phuong nhu VTnh Phuc (15), VTnh Long (16) hay Binh Phudc (17) khdng cdn duy tti dupe vj tri trong nhdm dan dau nhu trong md hinh 2.
Trong kbi do, nhirng dja phucmg cd mite giam ngheo nhanh chdng da vuon len dan dau la Dien Bien (2, tang 18 bae) va Lai Chau (3, tang 24 bac). Ngoai ra, mdt sd dja phuong vflng nui phia Bac cflng eai thien dupe hieu qua hoat ddng khi xep hang dya tten phuong dien kinh te - xa hdi nhu Ha Giang (19, tang 39 bae); Son La (32, tang 24 bac), Tuyen Quang (7, tang 22 bac) hay Cao Bang (23, tang 21 bac). Day deu la nhiing tinh thudc khu vyc Trang du va mien nui phia Bac vdi xuat phat diem cua ty le hd ngheo rat cao, do do, nhung ket qua tich cyc tii nd lye xda ddi giam ngheo giup cai thien rd ret ttong danh gia hieu qua boat ddng kinh te xa bdi.
Du mite dp cai thien mite sdng dan cu khdng thyc sy an tupng, nhdm dja phuang ed tii hai chi tieu trd len vupt trdi nhu Ha TTnh, Thai Nguyen, Ninh Tbuan va Binh Tbuan van duy tri dupe vj tri dan dau cua minh. Ngupc lai, nhdm nam cudi bang xep bang van bao gdm Tien Giang (63), Bac Ninh (62), Ha Ndi (59) va Bac Lieu (60) do khdng ed sy biit pha nao trong viee xda ddi giam ngheo. Trong kbi dd, du cd tdi 37/63 tinh thanh cd thii bang suy giam, mite dp thay ddi lai khdng dang ke. Binh Duong (35) la tinh ed muc tut hang ldn nhat, chu yeu do ty le hp ngheo da rat thap va khdng the eai thien dupe nua, cflng chi giam 17 bac so vdi md hinb 2. Dieu nay cung cho thay sy ban che kbi tinh theo phuang phap binh quan frpng sd, khi trpng sd cua mdi ehi tieu khdng phan anh dimg muc dp quan tam eua cae dja phuong danh cho chi tieu dd trong ke hoach phat frien kinh te xa bdi.
Diem hieu qua boat dpng trang binh theo md binh nay giam tii 3,018 ttong md hinh 2 xudng cdn 2,911 ttong md hinh 3. Ddng thdi, sd dja phuang dat mite tten tmng binh cung chi cdn 27 dja phucmg, thay vi 31 va 29 dja phucmg ttong md binh I va md hinh 2.
-Chisd ISEPI
Ket qua xep hang dya tren ehi sd ISEPI mdt lin nua cho thay su tuong ddng vdi phuang phap binh
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Kinh teJ'hat trien
quan trpng si, khi ma khdng ed nhiiu sy khac biet trong xip bang gifta hai phuang phap nay. Theo dd, sy cai thien manh me nhit trong hieu qua hoat ddng khi dua them tieu chi vi xa hpi thupc vi eac tinh khu vyc mien nui phia Bae.
Cu thi, Lai Chau (2), Dien Bien (4), Tuyen Quang (7) va Lao Cai (9) diu nim trong nhdm 10 tinh dung diu vdi mue tang hang lin lupt la 14, 21, 16 va 17 bac. Trong khi dd. Ha Giang (22), San La (28) va Cao Bing (24) diu cai thien manh me, vdi mite tang lin lupt la 37,25 va 18 bac so vdi md hinb 2. Ngupc lai, Thanh phi Hd Chi Minh (55) va Binh Duong (33) la bai dja phuang cd miie tiit hang cao nhit, chu yiu do khdng thi eai thien hon nfta chi tieu xda ddi giam ngheo.
Ha TTnh va Thai Nguyen duy tri nhdm din dau frong khi Bac Lieu, Ha Ndi, Tiin Giang, va Bie Ninh la bin dja phuong cd mue hieu qua boat ddng kinh ti - xa hdi thip nhit. Chi si ISEPI tmng binh ca nudc tiip tuc cd cai thien nhe, khi tang len 2,997 diim, va gift nguyen si dja phuong dat bieu qua fren trang binh la 28 dja phuang.
- Phuang phdp SBM
xip hang hieu qua boat ddng dya fren md brnh SBM td ra uu viet hon kbi khdng ap dung mdt topng sd cd djnb nao eho cac biin si. Diiu nay giup cho nhflng dja phuong nhu Thanh phi Hd Chi Mmb (38) hay Binh Duong (45) vin cd sy cai thien nhe toong hieu qua boat ddng kmh ti - xa hdi, du cho ty le hd ngheo gan nhu khdng thay dii tai nhung dja phuang nay. Rd rang la vdi ty le hd ngheo thip. Hi Chl Mmb hay Binh Duong se khdng cdn coi viec cai thien mite sdng dan cu la muc tieu quan topng nhu nhflng chi tieu khac nhu tang tradng hay dn dinh gia ca.
Ding thdi, phucmg phap SBM cung cho thay rd mdt sd dia phuong coi trpng ban muc tieu xda ddi giam ngheo nhu An Giang (md hinb SBM: 14/63;
binh quan topng sd: 55/63) hay Quang Ninh (SBM:
22/63; binh quan topng sd: 58/63). Trong khi do, du cd xep hang cao theo phuong phap binh quan trpng sd. Ha Giang bay Quang Trj lai chi dat muc bieu qua boat ddng kinh te - xa hpi tuong ddi thap theo md hinh SBM, lan lupt xep hang 51 va 62.
So sanh vdi md hinh 2, Dak Lak (58), Sdc Trang (56) va Hung Yen (43) la nhftng dja phuang ed sy giam bae ldn nhat, lan lupt giam 33, 24 va 19 bac xep hang. Ngupc lai, Tuyen Quang (6), Bae Kan (8) va Dien Bien (3) cd mite cai thien dang ke nhat vdi 46, 27 va 25 bae xep hang tang len.
Xet tten ting thi, ed tdi 32 tinh/thanh tang hang ttong khi chi ed 29 tinh/thanh giam hang so vdi md hinh 2. Ddng thdi, ehi cd hai tinh khdng ddi thii bang la Ha TTnh va Bic Ninh - hai tinh giu vj tii dau tien va cudi cung ttong bang xep hang. Theo do, cd 25 tinh/thanh ed diim hieu qua boat dpng kinh te - xa hpi cao ban miic trang binh 0,8873, tang nhe so vdi md hinb 2.
3.2.4. Nhdm chi tiiu kinh ti - xd hdi - thi chi (g, p, e,tp,l + PCI) - md hinh 4
Chi tieu ting hpp cudi cung phan anh mdt each toan dien cac tieu ehi kinh ti, xa hpi va thi chi d cac dja phuang va dupe ky vpng la se phan anh tinh dai ban, bin -vflng va bai bda cua tang tradng va phat ttiin kinb ti - xa hdi tai eac dja phuang. Tuong tu nhu ttong md hinh 3, viec dua them xip hang PCI vao trd thanh biin diu ra lam thay ddi tuong dii thii tot xip hang giua cae tinh. Ddng thdi, du cd sy chenh lech gifta xip bang theo phuang phap SBM va hai phuong phap cdn lai, ca ba phuang phap diu cho thiy sy -vupt ttpi ban ea trong diim bieu qua hoat ddng tai hai dia phuang la Da Ning va Ddng Thap.
- Phuang phdp binh qudn trong sd
Vdi viec dua biin PCI thanh mdt chi tieu so sanh, nhftng dja phuang ed diim si PCI cao nhit da vuon len nhdm din diu nhu Lao Cai (2, tang 7 bac). Da Ning (4, tang 25 bac) va Ddng Thap (10, tang 24 bae).
Trong khi do, niu chi so sanh vdi nhdm chi tieu kinh ti - xa bpi, Lai Chau (18), Dien Bien (13) va Tuyen Quang (15) lai khdng duy tri dupe vj tri din dau cua minh. Dac diim nay cflng cd thi nhan thay tai cae tinh khac cua khu -vyc mien nui phia Bac nhu Bac Kan (29, ha 15 bac). Ha Giang (41, ha 22 bac), Cao Bing (47, ha 24 bac). Yen Bai (53, ha 17 bac).
So sanh ca vdi ba md hinb trade, ehi cd duy nhat ba dja phuang duy tri dupe vj tri trong nhdm 10 tinh dan diu la Ha TTnh (I), Thai Nguyen (3) va Binh Tbuan (5). Day la nhung dja phucmg vira cd sy phat trien bai hda d phuang dien kinb te - xa hdi, -vua cd nhflng thay ddi tich cyc toong the ehe giup eai thien mdi tmdng kinb doanh, dupe eac doanh nghiep danh gia cao. Trong khi dd, nhdm nam cudi bang xep hang hau nhu khdng cd sy thay ddi: Tien Giang (63), Bic Ninh (62), Phu Yen (61) va Bae Lieu (59).
Miic thay dii xip hang trung binh gifta md hinh 3 va md hmh 4 la 6,5 bac xip hang, toong dd cd 22 tinh giam bang (frong dd giam nhiiu nhit la 24 bang), 34 tinh tang hang (toong dd tang nhiiu nhit la 25 hang) va 6 tinh gift nguyen xip hang. Diim hieu qua boat dpng
S8 233 thdng 11/2016
tinng binh theo phuong phap nay la 2,973 (tang so vdi mue 2,911 cua md hinb 3). Ding thdi, cd 23/63 tinh (giam so vdi miic 27 tinh cua md hinh 3) ed bieu qua hoat dpng tten muc diim tinng binh nay.
-Chisd ISEPI
Theo chi si ISEPI, diim hieu qua tmng binh cua ca nudc la 2,981 diim, giam nhe so vdi mite 2,997 cua md hinh 3, vdi 29 dja phucmg cd diem hieu qua cao ban miie trang. So vdi md hinh 3, muc thay ddi thit ty xep hang tmng binh la 6,5 bac, trong dd cd 25 tinh giam bang (muc giam nhieu nhat la 26 bac vdi tinh Cao Bang), 30 tinh tang hang (mirc tang nhieu nhat la 24 bae eua Ddng Thap va Da Nang) va 8 tinh ed xep hang khdng thay ddi.
Xep hang theo chi sd ISEPI va phuong phap binh quan frpng sd khdng cd nhieu sy khac biet, vdi nhdm dan dau Ha TTnh (I), Thai Nguyen (2), Lao Cai (3), Binh Thuan (4) va Da Nang (5). Trong kbi dd, Bae Lieu (59), Phu Yen (61), Bic Ninh (62) va Tiin Giang (63) la nhiing dja phuang cd bieu qua boat ddng kinh te kem tai tat ca cac khia canh va nam toong nhdm 5 dja phuong kem nhat frong ca 4 md hinh.
- Phuang phdp SBM
Trong md binh xem xet day du cac khia canh kinb te xa - hdi - the che, ngoai thdng tin ve xep hang eac dja phucmg, md hinb SBM cdn eho biet mire dp quan frpng efla chi tieu ve PCI ddi vdi cac dja phuang. Ddi vdi nhiing dja phuong danh gia myc tieu eai thien PCI la quan trpng, viee them bien sd nay se khiin xip hang trong SBM thay ddi nhieu ban so vdi khi su dyng phuang phap binh quan frpng sd.
Sdc Trang (31) da tang 25 hang so vdi md hinb 3 khi xip hang theo phuong phap SBM, trong khi dd, dja phucmg nay ehi xep bang 51 va tang 3 bang khi su dung phuong phap binh quan frpng sd. Ngupc lai, Quang Nam (49) da giam 17 hang so vdi md hinb 3 khi sfl- dyng phuong phap SBM, va xep hang 6 (tang 4 hang) kbi sit dyng phucmg phap binh quan frpng si. Diiu nay eho thay rang trong tmdng hop cua Sdc Trang, PCI d mue tmng binh khien xep bang theo phuong phap binh quan trpng sd khdng cd nhieu cai thien. Tuy nhien, tinh toan theo md hinh SBM cho thiy Sdc Trang tap trang nhieu hon vao cac chi tieu khac hon la PCI, nhd dd ma xep bang hieu qua boat ddng da tang len dang ke.
So vdi cung phuong phap d md hinh 3, thay dii trang binh trong xep bang cac dja phuang la 4,6 bac xip bang. Trong dd cd 33 tinh giam hang, 21 tinh tang hang va 9 tinh gift nguyen thu hang. Nhdm din diu theo phuong phap nay vin gim Ha TTnh, Lao
Cai, Thai Nguyen, Da Ning va Binh Thuan nhung ttong hai phuong phap diu. Ddng thdi, khdng ed sy thay dii ldn nao trong nhdm xip cudi bang xep hang so vdi md hinh 3.
Theo phuong phap nay, diem hieu qua hoat dpng trang binh eua cac dja phuong dat 0,9144 diem (cao hon mu-e 0,8873 trong md hinh 3). Cung vdi dd, cd 29 dja phuong dat hieu qua boat dpng cao ban mite tmng binh ca nude, nhieu ban mdt dja phuong so vdi md hinh 3.
4. Ket luan
Bang viec su dyng cae phuang phap khae nhau, nghien cira nay lan dau tien phat trien mdt phuong phap xay dyng chi sd tdng hop nham danh gia hieu qua boat ddng kinb te vT md cua cac dja phucmg trong ca nudc. Nghien eun thyc hien tfnh toan thye nghiem cho ket qua boat ddng cua cae dja phuang nam 2014 va dua ra bang xep hang tuong itng vdi 4 nhdm chi tieu khac nhau.
Kit qua tfnh toan dya tren phuong phap binh quan trpng si va chi si ISEPI cho thiy kit qua kha tiiang ddng ttong viec xep hang boat ddng kinh te xa hdi cac dja phucmg. Tuy nhien, ca bai phuong phap nay deu khdng cho thay dupe muc dp quan trpng eua mdi ehi tieu ddi cac dia phucmg khac nhau. Trong khi dd, viec so sanh xep hang gifta md binh SBM va hai md binh cdn lai cho thay rang chien lupc phat ttiin kinh ti xa hdi cae dja phuong la mat can ddi gifta cac muc tieu tang trudng va myc tieu xa hdi, thieu tinh ben -vftng va hai hda. Viec dua them mdt tieu chi mdi (ve CDCC, eai thien miic sdng, hay PCI) da lam thay ddi dang ke thit bang ciia eac dja phuong nay so vdi md hinb tra'dc do.
Nhieu dja phuong chu yeu tap trang theo dudi muc tieu tang tradng kinh te ma bd qua cae khia canb CO cau, xa hdi va the che. Ngupc lai, nhieu dja phucmg dat dupe ket qua tdt ve mat xa bdi nhung lai ban ehe trong tang tradng. Dieu nay de dpa den myc tieu tang tradng va phat trien kinh te cua cac dja phucmg trong dai ban.
Nghien cira nay la nd lyc dau tien hudng den viec xay dung mdt be thdng cac chi tieu tdng hpp phan anb hieu qua boat ddng kinb te vT md cap dja phucmg d Viet Nam. Do do, cac ndi dung lien quan den viec su dung ket qua xep hang trong viec di xuat cac chinh sach chua dupe khai thac. Tuy nhien, thdng qua ket qua nay ta cd the chi ra nhftng mat cdn yeu kem can cai thien cung nhu nhung uu tien vi mat chinb sach cua mdi dja phucmg de qua dd nang cao bieu qua tdng hop.
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KinliteJIiatti'ien
Ghi chii:
1. Chi si ISEPI sau khi tinh toan se duoc chuan hoa ve thang do [0,7] di thuan tien hem cho viec danh gia va so sanh.
Tai lieu tham idiao
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Sd 233 thdng 11/2016 50 Kj„|, ty»|,jj j,.j^^
