KINH T f THI TRl/dNG B^N VDNG:
MO HlNH P H A T T R I ^ N MCfl CHO V I E T NAM GIAI DOAN 2011-2020
D o Dufc D i n h *
Trong Tgp chi so 33 (6/2010), Tgp chi Qudn ly Kinh te dd ddng cdc phdn: 1.
Tiep tuc day mgnh phdt trien nin kinh te thi trudng; 2. ThUc thi chien lugc CNH phdt huy lgi the so sdnh dpng. Sau ddy,
moi cdc hgn doc phdn tiep theo.
3. Thi^c h i ^ n c h i e n lu!cfc p h a t t r i e n l a y c o n ngifdfi l a m t r u n g t a m vdfi n g u o n n h a n lu'c c h a t li^ofng c a o la d o n g li^c c h i n h
Kinh nghiem cua ca n h d n g nUde ngheo t a i nguyen t h i e n n h i e n nhU N h a t Ban, H a n Qudc,. Singapo, Thuy Sy, Ixraen, va n h d n g nUde giau t a i nguyen t h i e n n h i e n nhu cac quo'c gia cd nhieu dau Ida, vang, kim eUgng va eae loai khoang san k h a c d khu vUc Trung Dong, chau Phi, deu k h a n g dinh chi eo dUa t r e n ngudn n h a n lUc chat lugng eao la chinh thi mdi co the dat duge mgt sU p h a t t r i e n n h a n h , eao va ben vUng. Hon nda, ngudn n h a n lUc chat lugng cao vdi t r i n h do hge van va ky n a n g nghe nghiep cao con la yeu to' ed't ldi giup mgt nUdc p h a t t r i e n trung binh sdm t h o a t khdi eai "bSy thu n h a p trung binh". Y lai qua nhieu vao t a i nguyen t h i e n n h i e n thi du ed nhieu den may eung chi CO the n h a n h chong kiem duge mgt it tien nhd khai t h a c va b a n t a i nguyen tho, trd n e n kha gia n h a t thdi, khong dat dugc muc tieu trd t h a n h mgt nUde eong nghiep hay mgt nUdc ph'at t r i e n . ChUa ke vi nhdng ngudn tai nguyen dd ma nhieu qudc gia da bi bien t h a n h n h d n g bai chien trUdng the t h a m cua n a n cUdp trong giac ngoai.
Do'i vdi Viet Nam, m g t nUdc vUa nho vUa h e p , tuy mdi p h a t h i e n r a m g t so' tai nguyen k h o a n g s a n cd trU lugng kha, nhUng k h d n g d a n g la bao so vdi nhieu nude t r e n t h e gidi, trong khi chung ta lai cd ngudn n h a n lUe k h a ddi dao vdi 86 trieu ngudi n a m 2009, ddng thU 13 the gidi, Viet Nam khong co con dudng ndo tdt han Id xdy dUng vd thUc thi chien lugc phdt trien lay con ngUai ldm trung tdm,
lay nguon nhdn lUc chdt lugng cao Id dpng lUc chinh de ddy nhanh toe dp phdt trien vd ndng cao ndng lUc cgnh tranh eda ddt nUac, eda cong ty, cung nhu eda moi sdn phdm. Muo'n l a m dUcfc dieu dd, ehung ta k h o n g n h d n g can xay dUng mgt xa hgi eong bang, dn dinh va ddng t h u a n , ma con can p h a t t r i e n m a n h giao due, dao tao bac cao de n a n g eao chat lugng ngudn n h a n lUe, tao r a mgt moi trUdng dan chu de mgi ngUdi p h a t huy t a i nang, s a n g tao, gdp p h a n xay dUng va p h a t t r i e n d a t nUdc.
Trong nhUng n a m ddi mdi vi/a qua, chung ta da d a t mgt sd t h a n h qua quan t r g n g trong viec giai quye't va p h a t t r i e n mgt so' van de k i n h te - xa hgi t h i e t yeu.
Ndi b a t la viec p h a t t r i e n rgng r a i he thdng giao due phd thdng, tao dieu kien de t r e n 90% sd ngUdi d a n dugc den trudng va biet chd, md r g n g m a n g ludi y te, cham sde sde khoe eho dai da sd n h a n dan, gdp p h a n n a n g cao tudi thg trung binh tif 50 tudi trong t h a p n i e n 1960 len
D5 Dii'c Dinh, Pho giao sU, tien si, Vien trudng Vien Nghien cCfu Trung Dong va chau Phi.
ra QUAN LY KINH TE So 34 (7/2010)
KINH TE THI TRLTONG B E N V I J N G : MO HiNH PHAT TRIEN MOI CHO VIET NAM... NGHIEN Cihi - TRAO DOI [^\\\
t r e n 70 tudi hien nay, giam n h a n h ty le ngheo ddi tU t r e n 70% xudng 20%, d a m bao p h a n phdi nhdng t h a n h qua eua tien trinh ddi mdi khong chi ed lgi cho ngUdi giau, ma con hd t r g tich cUc cho ca ngUdi ngheo. NhUng t h a n h qua t r e n day chUng minh tinh Uu viet cua mo hinh "kinh te thi trudng dinh hudng XHCN". Chinh nhd mo hinh dd ma nhieu v a n de kinh te - xa hgi n a n giai va t h i e t ye'u da dugc giai quyet k h a t h a n h eong ngay trong dieu kien mgt nUdc cd n e n kinh te k e m p h a t trien vao loai nha't t h e gidi nhU Viet Nam. ThUc te n a y k h a n g dinh sU dung dan va can t h i e t tiep tuc dUdng loi dinh hudng XHCN, nha't la, trong viee de ra va thUe thi eae chien luge p h a t trien toan dien ve kinh te - xa hgi, khac phuc eg che binh quan ehii nghia trUde day da t r i e t tieu dgng lUc p h a t trien, xdy dUng mpt ca che mai kit hgp tdng trUdng kinh te cao vdi cong bdng xd hpi, khoi day cac dgng lUc p h a t t r i e n phuc vu lgi ieh ngUdi lao dgng, tao ra mgt moi trUdng song va lam viee n a n g dgng, dn dinh va ddng thuan.
He tho'ng giao due - dao tao la yeu to' ed vi tri quan trgng h a n g dau, ed^t loi de nang cao chat lugng ngudn n h a n lUe. Mgt t h a n h tieh ldn cua chung t a trong thdi ky vda qua la da day m a n h p h a t t r i e n giao due phd thong va day tieng Viet, dUa giao due phd thong va tieng Viet trd t h a n h nen t a n g tri thUc, mgt dgng lUc ldn thuc day sU p h a t t r i e n kinh te - xa hgi cua dat nude. Mae du vay, k e t qua d a t duge ehu yeu mdi la p h a t t r i e n dai t r a ve chieu rgng vdi trinh do va chat lUcfng tha'p. Lgi the ve ngudn lao dgng gia r e , t r i n h do thap, ket hgp vdi khai thac, sd dung va xua't khau t a i nguyen thien nhien thd dang n h a n h chdng tien tdi ngUdng, khong bao lau nda chung t a se m a t lgi t h e nay.
De vUgt qua ngUdng p h a t t r i e n theo chieu rgng, budc sang giai doan mdi nh&m dap dng nhdng nhu cau to ldn mdi eua dat nudc n h u t a n g cUdng p h a t t r i e n theo
chieu sau, day m a n h tien t r i n h CNH, HDH, md rgng hon nda tien t r i n h hgi n h a p qud^c te va thuc day p h a t trien n e n kinh te t r i thdc, chung ta khong co sU lUa chgn nao td^t hon la chuyen trgng tdm sang ndng cao chdt lUgng nguon nhdn lUc, dac biet cdn Uu tien ddu tU de ndng cao chdt lugng gido due, ddo tgo bdc cao, dgi hoc vd tren dgi hge. Day la linh vUc hien dang eon nhieu b a t cap, chUa dap dng dugc nhdng nhu eau cua giai doan p h a t trien mdi gan vdi CNH, HDH, toan eau boa va kinh te tri thUe. Mgt nUde ngay cang t a n g mdc do CNH, HDH, hgi n h a p qud^c te ma khong eo lay mgt trUdng dai hge dat chuan khu vUc va quo'c te thi sao ed t h e hgi n h a p hieu qua va chat lugng duge. Dd chinh la ly do t a i sao hau h e t hge sinh gidi, eon cai eae gia dinh cd dieu kien kinh te k h a , deu khong mud'n hge d trong nUde, tim dUdng di du bgc d nUdc ngoai, mac du chi phi t o n k e m hon nhieu so vdi hge d trong nUdc. Mud^n n a n g cao chat lugng giao due dao t a o de dat chuan quo'c te thi trude h e t eac cap dai hge va t r e n dai hge phai day va hge cac kien thdc quoc te de dao t a o r a ' nhUng ngUdi cd kha n a n g lam viec ca d trong nUdc va nUdc ngoai, ddng thdi phai day nhieu bang nhdng ngon ngU phd bien t r e n t h e gidi, dae biet la tieng Anh, phai coi tieng Anh la quoc ngU thU hai, sau tieng Viet, hoac la ngogi ngd Sd 1. Vi dge lap, tu chu, gid gin b a n s&c v a n hoa d a n toe thi day tieng Viet; vi hgi n h a p quoc te, md mang d a n tri t h i day tieng Anh.
Neu khong, se khong bao gid tien kip cac nUde p h a t trien, dUng ndi tdi "di t a t don dau" trong xu t h e toan cau boa, tien n h a n h , tien m a n h len kinh te t r i thdc.
Mgt b a t cap ldn trong he tho'ng giao due cua nUdc ta hien nay la it coi t r g n g dao tao ky n a n g nghe nghiep. Chung ta cd mgt thoi quen xau la thich t h a n h tich, con ggi la "benh t h a n h tich". Vi t h e , nhieu ngUdi thudng td ra r a t hd hdi khi
Mn
NGHIEN CUfU - TRAO DOI KINH TE THI TRLTONG B £ N VONG: M O HiNH PHAT TRiiN MOI CHO VIET NAM..noi ve ket qua eao trong eac ky thi qude te ve toan, ly, hoa eua mgt so' hge sinh gidi. Dang tiee la p h a n ldn sd hge sinh dd sau khi thi d a t giai cao it p h a t huy duge t a i nang. Ly do la sau dd hg khong cdn dugc tiep tuc eoi t r g n g trong dao tao va suf dung, nhiem vu cua n g a n h giao due do'i vdi hg coi nhU da xong, luyen thi de lay t h a n h tich thi cuf eao, khong phai de ed ky n a n g nghe nghiep gidi. Dd la ly do giai thieh tai sao thi lay diem thi p h a n dong hge sinh, sinh vien d a t k h a , gioi, nhUng thi de kiem nghe thi hau h e t dat kem. Mgt vi du dien hinh la H a n g Intel cua My vao Viet Nam dau tU da td chUe thi tuyen n h a n vien eong nghe t h o n g tin, mgt linh vUc nhieu ngUdi Viet Nam tU eho la gioi vi thong minh. NhUng k e t qua t h a t bat ngd, trong sd 2000 Ung vien du thi de vao lam viee eho eg sd san xua't eua h a n g t a i t h a n h phd Hd Chi Minh, chi ed 90 Ung vien, tdc 5%, d a t chuan chuyen mon, trong dd 40 Ung vien (2%) du t r i n h do tieng Anh de tuyen dung, chung cugc 2%
dat chuan tuyen dung! Hay Renesas, mgt h a n g t h i e t ke va san xua't vi mach h a n g dau cua N h a t Ban dau tU vao t h a n h phd Hd Chi Minh, mudn tim tuyen 500 ky sU cho giai doan boat dgng dau tien, ma sudt 2 n a m 2007 va 2008 chi tuyen dugc 60 ngudi dat chuan. Benh t h a n h tieh da lai he thdng giao due, dao tao Viet Nam p h a t t r i e n theo hudng t r a i vdi nhu cau p h a t trien, eoi trgng t h a n h tieh thi cuf mUdi, ky n a n g nghe nghiep mgt, nay can dao chieu n h a m dap dng dung nhu eau thUe t e : xdy dung mpt he thong gido due thUc sU phuc vu phdt trien, coi trgng ddo tgo ky ndng nghi nghiep mUai, thdnh tich thi cd. mpt.
Ve p h a n phd'i, td khi ap dung cO che kinh te thi trUdng, che do p h a n chia mang t i n h cao b a n g theo kieu binh quan chu nghia da duge k h a e phue, ngUdi lam tot hon da dugc do'i xuf td^t hgn, dugc hudng quyen lgi eao hgn, ed thu n h a p eao hgn. NhUng mgi ehinh saeh du Uu viet
[ Q QUAN LY KINH TE
den m a y k h o n g t r a n h khdi nhUng h a n che, b a t cap. C h i n h tU viec xoa bo che do cao b a n g , a p dung eg che ngUdi l a m to't hgn duge hudng quyen Icfi cao hgn da d a n den nhUng m a t can b a n g k h a c , dac biet la t i n h t r a n g t a n g n h a n h mde c h e n h lech giau ngheo gida eae ca n h a n , vung mien.
MUe chenh lech thu n h a p giUa n h d m 20%
dan sd giau nha't va n h d m 20% d a n sd ngheo nha't tU eho g a n nhU n g a n g nhau nay t a n g len gan 10 lan, ngUge vdi xu hudng d i i n r a t a i mgt so' n e n k i n h trong khu vUe chau A nhU N h a t Ban, H a n Quo'c, Dai Loan mUc chenh leeh giam d a n tU t r e n 20 lan xuo'ng 4-5 lan. Mac du trong k i n h te t h i trUdng chenh leeh la can thie't de tao dgng lUc p h a t t r i e n , nhUng chenh lech tdi 10 lan la qua eao, chenh lech khodng 5 ldn la hgp ly, vUa khuyen khich, tao dieu kien de ngUdi l a m a n gioi ed thu n h a p cao hun, vUa d a m bao n h d n g lgi ieh eua t a n g trUdng k i n h te duge p h a n phdi tuong do'i eong b a n g cho nhUng ngudi ed t a i n a n g lam a n tdt va ea nhUng ngudi cd h a n che ve sUe khoe, n a n g lUe, l a m a n k e m hgn.
Cg eau lao dgng la mgt t r o n g nhdng tieu ehi co b a n de d a n h gia mUe do thay ddi ve eha't cua t i e n t r i n h CNH, HDH.
Tuy CO eau n g a n h k i n h te t r o n g thdi ky ddi mdi da ed sU ehuyen dich tUOng ddi k h a theo hudng CNH, HDH, ty trgng nong nghiep trong GDP da giam xudng khoang 20%, eong nghiep va dich vu t a n g len 80%, nhung eg eau lao dgng p h a n theo n g a n h thi eon xa mdi d a t dugc eae ty le do, trong khi co ca'u lao dgng chinh la thudc do p h a n a n h thUc chat eua viec ap dung phuong p h a p eong n g h i e p trong p h a t t r i e n . ThUc te qua t r i n h chuyen ddi eg eau lao dgng theo hudng CNH, HDH d nude ta d i l n r a r a t cham chap, sau 60 n a m thue h i e n CNH, H D H ke tU t h a p nien 1960 den nay, v i n edn t r e n 70% lao dgng lam nghe nong, sdng d eae vung nong thon, chUng nao ty le n a y chUa
So 34 (7/2010)
KINH TE THI TRLTONG B^N VONG: MO HiNH P H A T TRIEN MOI CHO VIET NAM... NGHIEN Ciim - TRAO DOI [ ^ I H
giam xudng dudi 25% thi n e n kinh te nude t a ve thuc chat ehUa the duge ggi la nen kinh te eong nghiep. De dUa ty le lao dpng nong nghiep xuong duai 25%, chae chan ehung ta con m a t it nha't vai ba t h a p ky. Theo eae tinh toan gan day, dU bao ty le sd dan Viet Nam sdng d khu vUc do thi den n a m 2020 co the dugc n a n g len 45%, den n a m 2050 dat khoang 80%, neu ehung ta tiep tuc duy tri dugc toe do t a n g trudng kinh te va CNH cao nhU thdi ky vUa qua. So vdi ty le eg ca'u dan so cua My hien nay la 1-2% so' dan lam nong nghiep, dudi 20% lam cong nghiep va khoang 80% trong khu vUc dich vu, thi de trd t h a n h mgt nUde eong nghiep p h a t trien, chae chan ehung ta eon phai t r a i qua mgt chang dUdng r a t dai.
Mgt nhiem vu cap bach, nhUng ddng thdi cd y nghia lau dai, la phai xdy dUng dugc mpt dpi ngd cdc nhd doanh nhdn gioi, dae biet la eae n h a tai chinh, thuong
nhan, cac nha cong nghiep va dich vu co t a m cd qud^c gia va qud^e t e . Viec chung ta tiep n h a n tdi t r e n 90% dau tU nUde ngoai la dau tu trUc tiep chUng td dgi ngu eac nha kinh doanh cua Viet Nam cdn r a t non kem, chUa du sUc p h a t trien eac nganh eong nghiep cua da't nUde, phu thuoc qua nhieu vao cac nha dau tU trUc tiep nUdc ngoai. ChUng nao chung ta lam dugc nhu H a n Quo'c trong thdi ky dau CNH vao nhUng t h a p nien 1950 va 1960, hay An Do tU khi b a t dau cong cugc cai each, tu do hoa tU n a m 1991 den nay, thu hut t r e n 90% dau tU nUdc ngoai la dau tU gian tiep de xay dUng va p h a t trien cae nganh eong nghiep eua eac nha kinh doanh trong nUde, thi luc dd ta mdi co the yen t a m rSng dgi ngu cac n h a doanh nhan Viet Nam co du kha n a n g p h a t trien nen cong nghiep eua da't nUde. Xay dung mgt dgi ngu eac n h a doanh n h a n dong dao va gioi kinh doanh la mgt thach thdc ldn cua da't nUde, nhUng khong the khong lam, n h a t la trong bdi canh nUde
ta da chinh thUe la t h a n h vien cua Td chUc Thugng mai The gidi (WTO), eac nha kinh doanh phai canh t r a n h cong bang khong ehi tai thi trU^ng trong nUdc, ma ca thi trUdng qudc t e . NhUng gi chung ta da va dang lam tU khi thUe hien chinh sach ddi mdi, tuy da giam bdt t i n h ky thi va p h a n biet do'i xd giUa qude doanh va tU doanh so vdi thdi ky trUde ddi mdi, nhUng chua gd bd h e t nhUng "trdi huge" dang sau nhdng ldi ho hao mang tinh khau hieu dgng vien khuyen khieh chung chung. Nay can co cO che, chinh sach t h i e t thUc de dUa nhUng ldi dgng vien dd trd t h a n h nhdng bien phap kich thich kinh doanh thUc sU. Cd nha tU doanh khi duge trao chUng n h a n doanh n h a n gidi da tUng p h a t bieu r a n g do la mgt vinh dU, nhUng neu sU vinh danh dd duge the hien bang nhUng bien phap tao dieu kien thuan lgi va kieh thich kinh te thong qua cac thu tuc h a n h chinh minh bach, cac ehe do thue, tin dung, da't dai, co sd ha t a n g mang tinh khuyen khich ddi vdi doanh nghiep, khong sach nhiiu... thi con hon nhieu so vdi viec cap cho mgt td giay vinh danh ma ehUa "cdi troi" thUe
s u . : •>' : • • • -; = . ;
Mgt van de nda tuy dugc neu sau, nhung CO y nghia quan trgng h a n g dau do'i vdi viec p h a t trien va sd dung ngudn n h a n lUc chat lugng eao, dd la viec gidi phong tu duy vd ndng lUc sdng tgo, trgng dung ngUdi tai, loai bd nhUng rao can gay trd ngai do'i vdi sU sang tao va ddng gdp eua ngUdi tai. Nhffng xa hgi van minh sd di trd n e n van minh vi hg da xay dUng dugc nhffng eo ehe dam bao cho tU do sang tao va khuyen khich ngUdi tai sang tao. Cac xa hgi van minh da lam t h e , nUde ta muo'n di len van minh, hien dai, khong the khong lam t h e . ;i; .-;/:
Thu tu, md rpng hpi nhdp quoc te theo huang bo sung npi lUc vai ngogi luc, kit hgp hdi hod chien luge huang vdo xudt khdu vai thay the nhdp khdu
MB
NGHIEN Cini - TRAO DOI KINH Tg THI TRLTONG BSN VLTNG: M O HiNH PHAT TRI^N MOI CHO VIET NAM..Day la bai hoc duge due rut sau khi chffng kien nhffng tac dgng tieu cUe cua cae ehinh sach t h a i qua hUdng ngi va ed da'u hieu t h i e n leeh hUdng ngoai mgt so' n a m gan day. Hudng ngi qua t h i bd Id eae CO hgi ma thi trUdng the gidi m a n g lai trong khi eae ngudn ngi lUe qua k h a n hiem, thieu thon, khong du de p h a t trien, khien kinh te - xa hgi rgi vao k h u n g hoang t r a m t r g n g nhU da d i i n ra ngay dem trudc cua thdi ky ddi mdi. Hudng ngoai qua thi hi tae dgng tieu eUc khi thi trudng the gidi va khu vUe thu h e p nhU da t r a i nghiem qua hai cugc khung hoang khu vUe va the gidi nhffng n a m 1997-
1998 va 2008-2009. Bai hge n a y ggi md mgt chien Iffoe hgi n h a p quo'c te mdi giam t i n h t h a i qua va t a n g t i n h can bang.
Trong thUc te chung ta da cd nhffng dieu chinh dap Ung nhffng thay ddi eua mdi thdi ky, n h u da kip thdi ehuyen hudng tff "nha't the hoa" mgt chieu dUdi he thdng XHCN cu trUde day sang da phugng hoa, da d a n g hoa, phu hop vdi xu the mdi ve toan eau boa, khu vUe hoa, t r a n h dugc sU sup dd theo he t h d n g XHCN eu da t a n ra tff dau t h a p nien 1990. Nhffng da phffong hoa, da dang hoa ma thieu dinh hUdng ro rang, thieu nhffng chien Iffoc, ehinh saeh, giai p h a p sat vdi dieu kien thffe te eua d a t nffde va the gidi thi se d i n de'n khdng ro hffdng di cu t h e , hoac vo tinh di theo nhffng ldi mon, nhffng chinh saeh, chie'n Iffcfc do ngudi khae dinh s i n , da dugc ap dung t h a n h eong d nUdc nay, nUdc khac vao nhffng thdi diem n h a t dinh vdi nhffng dieu kien thich hgp trong t i n h h i n h lue do, nhffng khong con phu hgp hay chi phu hgp tffng p h a n vdi nhffng dieu kien thffe te eua the gidi va nUdc ta h i e n nay.
Nhu chien luge thay the n h a p khau chang b a n . Nd da p h a t huy tac dung tdt vao t h a p nien 1950 va nda dau t h a p n i e n 1960 khi cae nUdc dang p h a t t r i e n can xay dung nen kinh te doc lap dan tgc.
chdng lai sU do hg eua tU b a n nUdc ngoai, nhUng den giUa t h a p n i e n 1960 nd da trd t h a n h v a t can dUdng eua cac nUdc dang p h a t t r i e n do qua nha'n m a n h de'n dge lap, t u ehu, n e n da d i n cac n e n k i n h te dang p h a t t r i e n de'n chd bi khu biet khdi the gidi p h a t t r i e n , k h o n g t r a n h thu duge eac ngudn vdn, cong n g h e , t h i trUdng va kinh n g h i e m quan ly, l a m cho eae nUde dang p h a t t r i e n bi m a t nhieu eg hgi va ngudn lUc p h a t t r i e n . Rd r a n g den luc nay chien luge t h a y t h e n h a p k h a u k h o n g con phu hgp nffa.
Tff giffa t h a p n i e n 1960, m g t chien lUgfc mdi da duge t h i e t ke - chien luge hUdng xuat k h a u - vdi mue tieu k h a e phue nhffng b a n ehe cua chie'n luuc t h a y the n h a p khau, md ra nhffng co hgi mdi cho cae nffde dang p h a t t r i e n t r o n g t i e p can thi trUdng t h e gidi rgng ldn, t i e p can cac ngudn vo'n, cong nghe va phuong phap quan ly h i e n dai. Chien luge hudng xuat khau da p h a t huy tae dung r a t m a n h eho den khi nd r a cugc k h u n g h o a n g dau Ida vao nhffng n a m 1973-1974, rdi khung h o a n g t a i chinh chau A n a m 1997-1998 va k h u n g h o a n g k i n h te t h e gidi nam 2008-2009 thu h e p thi trUdng t h e gidi, thi chien luge hudng xuat k h a u da m a t dan tae dung eua nd. Luc n a y nhieu n h a chien luge va hoach dinh chinh sach da quay lai n h a n m a n h tdi cae t h i trUdng trong nUdc va trong khu vUe.
Nhffng t h a y ddi t r e n day eung da d i i n r a tffgng tff ddi vdi Viet Nam, mgt nUde co t h d i da ndi r a t m a n h ve tU lUc canh sinh, rdi md cufa thue day hgi n h a p qude te, va nay lai dang p h a t dgng phong t r a o ngUdi Viet Nam Uu t i e n dung h a n g Viet Nam.
Thuc te dd dang d a t ra eho Viet N a m mdt yeu eau la can tim eho m i n h m g t chien lugc hgi n h a p mdi phu hgp hgn, can ddi hgn, khae phue nhffng lech lae hffdng ngi hay hudng ngoai t h a i qua. Mae du ddi vdi mgt n e n kinh te nhd, k e m p h a t t r i e n nhU Viet Nam h i e n nay, ngogi thuong vdn
QUAN LY KINH TE So 34 (7/2010)
KINH Tg THI TRLTONG B E N VLTNG: MO HiNH PHAT TRiiN MOI CHO VIET NAM.. NGHIEN Cinj - TRAO
DPI [ T O I
tiep tuc dong vai tro ddu tdu eda tdng trudng, nhUng trong bo'i canh mdi cua toan eau hoa va k i n h te tri thffe ed tinh hai mat, co hgi nhieu, rui ro lam, thi giai phap thffe te va it hi tdn thffong la thUe hien chien lugc md rpng hpi nhdp qudc te theo hudng bd sung gida npi lUc vd ngogi lUc, kit hgp hdi hod giUa hai chien lugc hudng vdo xudt khdu vd thay the nhdp khdu la phu hgp nha't. Chien luge mdi nay khong nhffng cho phep chung ta vUa phat huy dugc eae ngudn ngi lUe san co, vffa t r a n h thu dffgc cac eg hgi ma toan cau boa, khu vffe hoa mang lai, mgt m a t khong qua trong chd vao cac cO hgi ben ngoai ma quen hoac coi nhe nhffng nguon Iffc trong nffde, m a t khac khac phuc tinh trang m a t thi trUdng nUdc ngoai khi khung hoang kinh te the gidi va khu vUc, khong bd trong thi trUdng trong nUde cho tu ban nUde ngoai, khi kinh te the gidi va khu vUc t a n g trudng m a n h thi hUdng ngoai m a n h , day m a n h xuat khau, khi kinh te the gidi va khu vUc rOi vao khung hoang, suy thoai thi hudng ngi manh, md rgng thi trUdng trong nUde, vao luc binh thudng thi p h a t huy ca hai.
Mgt van de ldn khae eua Viet Nam trong hgi n h a p qud^c te la each thdc hgi nhap. Da cd thdi khi noi den hgp tac quo'c te hay "nhat the hoa" XHCN, hau nhU chung ta chi chu trgng den vien trg, it de y den phat t r i e n ngoai thUOng, dau tU, du lich, xua't khau lao dgng va cac hinh thffe kinh doanh qudc te khac. Rat may tff khi ddi mdi, chung ta da dan dan tim ra dffgc cai can cau va each eau hffu hieu, da thay ddi mgt each can ban quan niem ve lam kinh te doi ngoai, khong con qua le thuge vao vien trg, hay cd the ndi la da cai dffgc cai benh "nghien" vien trg, chuyen dan sang mgt tff duy mdi va each lam mdi, ngay cang eoi trgng hgn eae phffgng thffe kinh doanh kinh te ddi ngoai, p h a t trien manh ngoai thffOng, dau tff nffde ngoai, du lieh, xua't khau lao dgng... dffa nhffng linh
vUc kinh doanh mdi nay len ngang t i m , t h a m ehi d i n vUgt len t r e n vien trg, khac phue d i n thoi quen y lai, ben ngoai thi trong chd vao sU giup dd hao t a m cua cac nude XHCN eu, ben trong thi dUa d i m vao CO che bao cap, xin, cho.
Chinh viec tim duge eai c i n eau va each eau mdi nay la t h a n h qua ldn n h a t trong hai t h a p ky rUdi ddi mdi boat dgng kinh te ddi ngoai ndi rieng, ddi mdi cO che boat dgng kinh te eua dat nUde ta ndi ehung. Day tuy khong la san pham can, do, dong, dem dugc, nhUng la t h a n h qua bao trum len t r e n t a t ca nhffng t h a n h qua can, do, dong, dem dffgc. Nhd cd cai e i n cau va each cau mdi nay ma Viet Nam - mgt nffde nhd vdi n e n kinh te kem p h a t trien - da b a t dffgc nhffng con ca kha to, da day n h a n h td'c do t a n g trffdng kinh t e , giam bdt doi ngheo, md rgng boat dgng xuat n h a p khau, d i u tff nffde ngoai, du lieh, dich vu, kieu hoi, ddng thdi huy dgng va sff dung tot hOn ngudn vien trg nffde ngoai. Sff thay doi each nghi, each lam trong nhffng n a m ddi mdi da tao eho Viet Nam mgt da p h a t trien kha m a n h , mgt dong chay lien tue, mgt xu hffdng t a t yeu khong the dao ngffgc. Cai dang c i n hien nay la tim ra mgt mo hinh mdi co kha n a n g dUa dat nUdc tdi mgt giai doan p h a t trien n a n g dgng, dn dinh va ben vffng hon.
K e t l u a n : Trffdc khi dUa ra ket luan va kien nghi cua minh, chung toi da nghien effu ky cae y kien de xuat cua mgt so' n h a khoa hoc, nha hoach dinh chinh saeh ve cae quan diem va mo h i n h p h a t t r i e n tdng quat eua Viet Nam trong giai doan mdi tff nay den n a m 2020 va xa hon, ndi bat la eae kien nghi nhff "mo hinh nin kinh te thi trudng hien dgi" do GS.TS. Le Du Phong de xuat; "mo hinh kinh te thi trUang Viet Nam hien dgi" eua GS.TS. Nguyin Van Nam va Nguyin Ddc Hien; "Quan diem mai cho phdt trien xd hpi hen vUng" cua PGS. TSKH Lffgng
MJ!\
NGHIEN ClhJ - TRAO DOI KINH TE THI TRITONG BSN VLTNG: MO HiNH PHAT TRIEN MOI CHO VIET NAM..Viet Hai; "Mpt so vdn di ddt ra trong qud trinh phdt trien nin kinh te thi trUang dinh hUdng XHCN d Viet Nam"
cua GS.TS. Lffgng Xuan Quy va N g u y i n Anh Tuan; "Phdt trien nin kinh te tri thitc d Viet Nam" cua TS. T r i n Hdng Lffu;
"Ddo tgo vd phdt trien nguon nhdn lUc trong phdt trien doanh nghiep 6 nUdc ta"
eua N g u y i n Thi Huyen; "Van hod kinh doanh - Yeu cdu tdt yeu ciia sU phdt trien kinh te trong diiu kien todn cdu hod" eua TS. P h a m Duy Hai; Xu the t o a n c i u va giai p h a p p h a t t r i e n d a t nffde giai doan 2010-2025 cua TS. N g u y i n Van Lang; va mgt so' de xuat khac. Mdi y kie'n de xuat t r e n day deu da p h a n tieh sau sac ve eae ngi dung va v a n de t h i e t yeu lien quan den mo h i n h p h a t t r i e n tdng quat cua Viet Nam.
Tuy nhien, de dap ffng nhffng yeu ciu p h a t trien ca ve lUcfng va chat eua nUde t a trong thdi ky mdi n h u da p h a n tich trong cac p h a n t r e n , thi ehUa eo de xuat nao bao quat dugc d i y du nhffng yeu c i u dd.
Chinh vi vay, chung toi cho r i n g trong 2- 3 t h a p ky tdi, neu Viet Nam muo'n dat dffgc mgt sff p h a t t r i e n n h a n h va can do'i ca ve lUgfng va chat, thi khong cd giai phap nao tot hon la thUe thi mo hinh phdt trien nin kinh te thi trUang bin vUng dUa tren ha tru cpt ca hdn Id: (1) dp dung ca che kinh te thi trUang ndng dpng;
(2) giu vdng on dinh xd hpi; vd (3) bdo ve moi truang song trong Idnh. Vdi ba tru cot, ddng thdi la ba dinh hUdng chie'n lugc t r e n day, mo h i n h p h a t t r i e n mdi khong nhffng tiep tuc p h a t huy m a t tich cffe, t a n g cffdng tinh n a n g dgng eua n e n kinh te thi trUdng, ma eon khac phue m a t tieu cue cua nd la t i n h thieu ben vffng thong qua viec ap dung cae ehinh saeh dn dinh xa hgi va bao ve moi trffdng. Dd la giai p h a p p h a t t r i e n toi Uu, hudng tdi hieu qua tdng hgp ea ve kinh t e , xa hgi va moi trUdng, vffa tiep tuc p h a t huy t i n h n a n g dgng eua eg ehe thi trUdng, vffa dam bao
ben vffng t h o n g qua eac chinh sach cong b a n g xa hgi va bao ve moi trffdng, phu hgfp n h a t cho giai doan ddi mdi tie'p theo eua da't nffde tff nay den n a m 2020 va mgt vai t h a p n i e n sau dd. Giai p h a p nay khdng nhffng cd t h e giup Viet N a m khac phuc n h a n h nhffng h a u qua cua cugc k h u n g h o a n g dang d i i n ra, ma eon t r a n h thu ehinh cugc k h u n g h o a n g dd de p h a t t r i e n nhffng t i e m n a n g va eg hgi mdi, t r a n h rgi vao cai b i y cua nUdc thu n h a p trung binh, tff do t i e n m a n h t r e n con dffdng CNH, HDH n h a m d a t dugc hai muc tieu CO b a n la t a n g trUdng cao di ddi vdi p h a t t r i e n ben vffng.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
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E Q QUAN LY KINH TE
So 34 (7/2010)
KINH Ti THI TRl/dNG B^N VCTNG: MO HlNH PHAT TRI^N MOI CHO VI£T NAM... NGHIEN CUU • TRAO DPI [ ^ ^ 1
Khanh, Tiing: Ca sa xd hgi nhdn vdn trong qudn ly nhd nuac doi vdi tdi nguyen, moi tradng trong qud trinh CNH, HDH d Viet Nam, Tap chi Nghien cdu P h a t trien ben vufng, sd 2(23) 2009.
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h
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