TAP CHi CONG MlJNG
MOT SO KY VONG GIA TANG G l i 'I ^ KIM NGACH XUAT NHAP KHAU VA THI HUT
VON D A U T U FDI KHI VIET NAM THlTC THI HIEP DINH EVFTA
• NGUYEN THI THU TRANG
TOM TAT:
Viet Nam chu tnrcmg chuyan huong thu hut FDI tu s6 lugng sang chit lucmg. Nguon FDT dau tu v^o Viet Nam rat da dang, khong chi dkn tii mgt vai nu6c. Hiep dinh Thuong mai tu do Viet Nam-EU (EVFTA) dugc ky ket va co hieu Iuc se giup Vi?t Nam cai thien chat lugng dau tu nirac ngoai, thu hiit them v6n FDI. EVFTA khong chi co tac dung trong ng5n han, ma con co tac dung lau dai trong viec nang cao nang lye canh tranh cua ca 3 cap dp; quoc gia, doanh nghiep va hang hoa Vi?t Nam.
Tir khoa: EVFTA, Lien minh chau Au, kim ngach xuat nhSp khSu, tang truang kinh te, GDP.
1. Dat van de
Hiep dinh Thuofng mai tu do Viet Nam-EU (EVFTA) dug'c coi la mgt Hiep dinh toan dien, chat lugng cao, phii hgp vdi cac quy dinh ciia To chuc Thuong mai the gicri (WTO). Vai Viet Nam, khi dugc dua vao thyc thi, EVFTA se la ca hpi vang cho hang hoa xuat khau.
Thuc thi EVFTA giiip Viet Nam co dieu kien nang cao ngi lye de limg pho lot hon vai cac dien bien bat lai trong khu vyc va tren truang quoc te, dSc biet la khi cang thang thuang mai My-Trung Qu6c vin chua cham dut va tac dpng bat lgi cua dich Covid-19 doi vai kinh te. Viet Nam hien dang xuat khau moi nam sang EU hem 40 ty USD, trong do xuat sieu gan 30 ty USD. Do vay, Hiep dinh nay se tao dieu kien dk thiic day xuat khSu, da dang hoa thi trucmg va thu ducrc gia tn gia tang cao hon thong qua viec thiet lap cac chu6i cung ling mai.
2. Ky vpng gia tang gia trj kim ngach xuSt nhSp khau
Vai miic cam kit trong EVFTA. co the thay, Viet Nam CO Igi thg lan, bai day la miic cam ket cao nhat ma Viet Nam dat dugc trong cac Hiep djnh thuong mai da ky kdt. DiSu nay cang co y nghTa khi hien nay, mai chi han 42% kim ngach xuat khau cua Viet Nam sang EU dugc huang muc thue GSP 0%. Nhu \ ay.
Hinh 1: DU bao Idm ngach xuat nhap khdu cua Viet Nam sang EU tit nam 2020 den
nam 2025 va 2030
Nguon: BpKe hoach va Dau t y EVFTA giiip Viet Nam co ca h6i tiSp can thi tnrang EU v6i thue suat mi dai han cac d6i thii canh tranh Ket hgp vai cac cam ket cao vk ma ciia dku tu va cai thien moi tntang kinh doanh, EVFlAchSc chin se la cu hich Ion cho dau tu, ca dku tu nuoc ngoai ISn dSu tu trong nuac, tir do tao ra nang luc san xuSt mai giup GDP tang tmong ben virng han yong dai han '
Thyc thi tnetde EVFTA sg,hucd%,huang mai hai chieu Viet Nam - EU. Theo 16 yinh ,huc hien cam ket, Viet Nam se giam 65% thul nhap khSu d6i vdi hang EU xuat sang Vi^, ^^^ , ^ ^^^ ^^^
dugc xoa trong giai doan 10 nim Then cW, •
•"J "-nieu nguac 98 So 6-Thang4/2020
KINH TE
lai, han 70% thue quan ciia hang Viet Nam sang EU dugc giam ngay lap tire tir nam 2020 va phkn con lai se dugc giam tilp theo 16 trinh t6i da 7 nam.
Nhu vay, Viet Nam giam thul nhap khSu cho EU it hon (65% so voi 70%), va thai gian cam kit giam thue nhap khau t6i da cung ngan han (7 nam so vai 10 nam). Noi each khac, xet vl xuat khku, Viet Nam dugc tao dieu kien horn trong EVFTA.
Voi hoat dgng xu4t khiu sang EU, nam 2019, rieng Viet Nam xuat sieu din 26,6 ti USD vao thi trucmg EU - thi trucmg xuSt khSu Ion thu hai ciia Viet Nam sau My. Theo bao cao "EVFTA - Dpng luc mai eho tang truang xuk khdu eiia Viet Nam" eiia C6ng ty CO phan Chimg khoan VNDirect thi EVFTA se mang lai nhieu lgi the cho hang xuSt khdu ciia Viet Nam tai thi trudng EU.
_ Theo earn kit ciia EVFTA, EU se xoa bo 85,6%
s6 dong thue d6i vdi hang hoa Viet Nam, tuang irng vdi 70,3% tong gia trj xudt khau eua Viet Nam sang EU. Trong vdng 7 nam ke tu khi EVFTA cd hieu luc, EU cam ket xda bd 99,2% cac dong thue, tuang ducmg 99,7% tdng gia tri xuat khau ciia Viet Nam sang EU. Ddi vdi cac mat hang eon lai, EU cam ket cung cap cho Viet Nam han ngach thue quan vdi thue nhap khdu bang 0%.
Theo sd lieu mdi nhat cua Tdng cue Hai quan Viet Nam, tdng gia tri xuat nhap khau hang hda gitra Viet Nam va EU (28 nude, bao gdm ca Vuang qu6c Anh) dat 56,4 ti USD yong nam 2019. Rieng Viet Nam xuat sieu den 26,6 ti USD vao thi trudng nay.
Thyc thi EVFTA se tao ra lgi the canh tranh Idn so vdi cac d6i thii khac nhu Trung Qudc va eae nude ASEAN khi hang hda Viet Nam dugc cdt giam thue xuat khau sang EU.
Theo bao cao nghien eiiu ciia Bp Ke hoach va Dau tu, gia trj xuat khau ciia Viet Nam sang EU du bao cd the tang khoang 20% vao nam 2020; 42,7%
vao nam 2025; va 44,4% vao nam 2030 so vdi khi khdng ky EVFTA. Ddng thdi, nhap khdu eiia Viet Nam tit EU ciing se tang nhung vdi tdc do cham hon. Cu thi, gia yi nhap khdu tir EU cd the tang xap xi 15,3% ; 33,1% va 36,7% vao cae mdc thdi gian tuang ty.
Vdi hoat dgng nhap khdu tir EU, thuc hien EVFTA, Viet Nam cung se md rgng thi trudng cho hang hda xudt khdu tir EU. Viet Nam cam ket xda bd 48,5% sd ddng thue ddi vdi hang hda xuat khau tir EU ngay sau khi EVFTA cd hieu lye, tuong ducmg 64,5% tdng gia tn nhap khdu tir EU. Trong vdng 10 nam tir khi EVFTA cd hieu luc, Viet Nam cam ket
Hinh 2: Tinh hinh xudt nhap Ichdu cua Viet Nam sang EU tit nam 2011-2019
I ll ll J ll I
xda bd han 98,3% sd ddng thue ddi vdi hang hda xuat khau ciia EU, tuong ducmg 99,8% tdng gia tri nhap khau tir EU. Dieu nay se khien mot sd ITnh vuc trong nude se bi thiet hai bdi canh tranh. Tuy nhien, EVFTA ciing du bao se mang lai lan gid mdi cho eae doanh nghiep trong nude phat trien. Bdi chii yeu xuat khau ciia EU sang Viet Nam la may mdc, hda chat va thiet bj van tai. Day diu la nhiing mat hang can thiet eho sy chuyen ddi md hinh phat trien va hien dai hda eua nen kinh te Viet Nam.
Viec giam thue ddi vdi hang hda nhap khau tir EU se tao ca hoi cho cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam tiep can vdi may mdc, thiet bi chat lugng cao \a cdng nghe mdi tir chau Au vdi gia thap hem, giiip cac doanh nghiep cai thien nang suat lao dgng cung nhu tang cudng irng dung cdng nghe eao, tir dd md ra ca hdi tien sau han vao ehudi gia tri toan cau. Ddng thdi, vdi su tham nhap ciia hang hda chau Au vao Vi?t Nam se tao ra ap lye canh tranh, budc cac nha san xuat trong nude phai cat giam ehi phi san xuat va eai thien chat lugng san pham de canh tranh. Va duge lgi nhat la ngudi tieu diing Viet Nam.
Hiep dinh thucmg mai tu do the he mdi - EVFTA dugc vi la "con dudng cao tdc hudng Tay", ket ndi kinh te Viet Nam tai mdt khdng gian thi tnidng rpng Idn va cd tiem nSng hang dau tren the gidi ca ve tai ehinh, cdng nghe va thi trudng... Lgi ich den tir nhung con sd cd the can, dong, do, dem dugc. Khi thyc thi mdt loat cam ket trong EVFTA se giup giam ehi phi dau vao cho cac nganh san xuat. giam gia hang hda, dich vu, khai thdng mgt ddng chay mdi ve thuang mai giira Viet Nam vdi mgt thi trudng cd siic mua Idn thii hai tren the gidi, tao dieu kien cho ca ngudi dan Viet Nam va chau Au ed the tiep can nhirng hang hda va djch \ u chat lugng cao \ a gia re.
So 6-Thang 4/2020 99
TAP CHl CONG THIfdNG
3. Hiep dinh EVFTA hap dan ngu6n von diiu ttr FDI vao Vi^t Nam trong nam 2020
EVFTA con cd tac ddng kha tich cue ve mat tao sire ep gian tiep va true tiep nham cai thien the che va mdi trudng kinh doanh. Nhimg ky vpng ve ddi mdi the che, cai thien mdi trudng dau tu do thyc hien hiep djnh ciing se tao ra sire hap dan Idn hon ddi vdi cac nha dau tu nude ngoai, giup gia tang ddng von dau tu tryc tiep nude ngoai vao Viet Nam yong thdi gian tdi...
Theo nghien ciiu cua Bd Ke hoach va Dau tu cho thay, neu eac cam ket ve eat giam thue quan va phi thue quan dugc thyc thi triet de, ket hgp vdi mpt sd ylu td tir chien tranh thucmg mai My-Trung, viec Anh rdi khdi EU (Brexit), sy thay ddi chinh sach ciia cac nude..., thi tang tru'dng kinh te cita Viet Nam se dugc cai thien trong ea ngan han, tmng han va dai han.
Hiep dinh EVFTA dugc ky vgng se gdp phan day manh dong vdn FDI tu EU vao Viet Nam vdi ddng von chdt lucmg cao, cac nha dau tu Idn va dae biet la hien thyc hda dugc cac tieu chuan the che kinh te hien dai cua the gidi.
Theo dl xudt tir Chiln luge thu hiit FDI thi he mdi, dii Viet Nam dang nd lye nang cao hieu qua ddu tu til Nhat Ban va Han Quoc, nhung cdn thu hiit nhieu hem cae nha dau tu tir EU de da d^ng hda ngudn vdn FDI, ddng thdi tan dung duge dau tu tir khu vyc nay cho cac hoat ddng mang lai gia tri gia tang cao han, cung nhu tang cudng chuyen giao edng nghe cho khdi kinh te tu nhan trong nude.
Vdi viec Hiep dinh EVFTA dugc thuc thi, chinh sach thu hiit FDI ciia Viet Nam se thay ddi theo xu hudng cua thi gidi, theo hudng xay dung md hinh kinh tl hien dai vdi md hinh tang trudng mdi, hi^u qua ban, than thien han, tang truang xanh va bin vimg. Chiln luge thu hiit FDI sdp toi ciia Viet Nam, khdng phai la FDI tir Nhat Ban hay Han Qudc, ma phai la My va EU, bdi Viet Nam can thoat khdi sy phy thupc nhilu vao cac nha dau tu tir chau A, ke ca tir Trung Qudc.
Bao eao cua Hiep hgi Doanh nghiep chau Au tai Viet Nam (EuroCham) cho thdy, trong khu vyc ASEAN, Viet Nam la qudc gia hang ddu xudt khau hang hda sang EU va se nhan dugc nhieu Igi ich so vdi cac hiep dinh thuang mai khac da tham gia bdi EU va Viet Nam la 2 thi trudng bd sung, ho yg nhau.
v l dinh hudng thu hiit FDI, Viet Nam uu den thu hiit vdn FDI vao ITnh vyc cdng nghe cao, tien tiln, than thien vdi mdi trudng, nang lugng sach, nang luang tai tao, san xudt thiet bi y te, cung cap dich vu cham s6c siic khde, giao due dao tao, du
lich chdt luang cao, dich vu tai chinh, logistics, phat triln nong nghiep edng nghe cao, ndng nghiep thon^
minh kit cdu ha tdng hien dai, va cac ng:uih nghe mdi tren nIn tang 4.0. Day la ITnh vuc the manh cua cac qu6c gia nong EU. , , ^
Viet Nam iang trong qua trinh pliat men can rat nhiSu v6n clio dau tu CO so ha tang va cong nghiep ky thuat cao. Trone khi do, EU co nhieu nguon v6n, khi Hiep dinh EVFTA va EVIPA duoc ky ket va thong qua thi dong v6n tir EU se do vao Viet Nam nhiSu hon, D6ng thai, gia hang hoa, may raoc thiet bj se re di rat nhi6u, Viet Nam se CO dieu kien tiep nhan. Theo do, dong v6n FDI tit EU dia tu vao Viet Nam se chat luong hon, cong nghe tien tien hem.
Viet Nam dang dung nuoc co hoi Ion trong chon loc v6n dh hi nuoc ngoai khi thuc thi EVFTA. Hiep dinh EVFTA co hieu luc, doanh nhan Viet Nam co di6u kien, tigp xiic v6i cac doanh nhan chau Au. So hiJU dugc nhung mat hang va cong nghe cao cua EU dua ve Viet Nam thi nang luc canh ttanh cua hang hoa Viet Nam, cua doanh nghiep Viet Nam se dugc nang len.
Ngoai FDI tir EU, Ihi EVFTA khong ngimg mo ra "co hpi v6 hinh" cho Viet Nam thu hiit nguon FDI tir cac thi truong khac ngay cang tang. Khi EVFTA dugc Viet Nam - EU thuc hien, cac cong ty tir My va chau A se toi Viet Nam nhieu hon d^ xu4t khSu sang EU thue 0%, vi biet rang hp co thg xudt khdu sang chau Au ma khong chiu Ihui Thuc te nhu vay, viec cat giam thuS xu6ng 0% dpi vol hang Viet xujt sang EU, diSu nay se khiin cac cong ty nuoc ngoai, ki ca khong (:hugc EU, c6 them dong luc chuyin dju nr va san xuJt sang Viet Nam. D6ng thoi, cac cong ty xuat khau o Viet Nam c k tim each dat tieu chuto hang "san xuat o Viet Nam" theo dinh nghTa cua EU di tan dung thue 0% theo cac cam kat trong EVFTA
Trong giai doan 2011-2020, la 10 nam n«n kinh te Viet Nam rat hap dan doi vm diu tu nuoc ngoai ve chi phi nhan cong, nguyen vat lieu, ySu t6 dku vao nhungvi phai tra thue qua cao khi xuJt khju sang chau Au, nen siic hap dan co ph5n giam di Vdi tin hieu tich cue do EVFTA mang lai, trong mons lai Viet Nam se la lira chpn dau tien vS diu nr irons ASEAN ciia cac khach hang la cac tap doan cua cac quoc gia ffen toan cau ni chau Au (khong thuoc EUl chau A, chau My...; nhirng conotvkhnna™ -
> , _ J , . T- ^ X icnong mo rong nua hoac dong cua o Trung Q„ac va dang mu6n tim mot nircrc ASEAN co chi phi tha„ i, .
, L J L .L- 1-. "^ '''P non vol moi tnrong kinh doanh than thien cung c6 thS s~
Viet Nam la diSm djn dau m Iju diu va hieu^° ™
lOOSo 6-Thang4/2020
KIHH TE
TAI UEU THAM KHAO:
1 Le Dinh Tinh va Han Lam Giang (2019), Hiep dinh EVFTA tir goc nhin chiln luge. Tap chi Cpng san. 13-03-2020.
2.Thien Trdn (2019), FTA thi he mdi: "Cii huych" thuc ddy tang trudng kinh tl yong tmng, dai han", Th&i bdo Tdi chinh Viet Nam, 26-11-2019.
3. The Hoang (2020), Viet Nam co FTA vdi 60 nIn kinh tl tren toan cdu, Bdo Dau lu. 26-2-2020.
4. Bo Ke hoach va Dau Ui (2019), Bdo cdo nghien ciru ddnh gid tdc dong ddi v&i Viet Nam ciia hai Hi^p dinh EVFTA vdlPA.
5. Bp Cong Thuorng, Hiep dinh thucmg mai tu do giiJa Viet Nam va lien minh chau Au (EVFTA): http://evfia.moil gov.vn/
Ngay nhan bai: 11/3/2020
Ngay phan biSn danh gia va sfra chira: 21/3/2020 Ngay chSp nhSn dang bai: 31/3/2020
Thong tin tdc gia:
ThS. NGUYEN THI THU TRANG
Khoa Kinh te ctf stf, Trirtmg Dai hoc Kinh t€ - Ky thuSt cong nghiep
SOME EXPECTATIONS OF INCREASING IMPORT-EXPORT TURNOVER AND ATTRACTING MORE FDI WHEN VIETNAM
IMPLEMENTS THE EVFTA
• Master. NGUYEN THI THU TRANG Faculty of Fundamental Economics University of Economics - Technology for Industries
ABSTRACT:
Vietnam is shifting from quantity to quality inveshnent in attracting foreign direct investment.
The FDI inflow into Vietaam comes from many countries. When the EU - Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) takes effect, it would help Vietnam atttract more FDI and also improve the quality of FDI inflow. The EVFTA not only brings short-teim opportonities but also create long-term effects that improving Viemam's competitiveness at all three levels from national, enterprises to goods level.
Keywords: EVFTA, European Union, import-export mmover, economic growth, GDP.
So 6-Thang 4/2020 101
