LlTA CHON HINH THU'C MUA LAI TRONG THI TRirdNG M&A NGANHNGANHANGVIETNAM
Dang Hihi Man
Tru&ng Dgi hgc Kinh ti Dd Ndng. Dgi hgc Da Nang Email: [email protected]
Hoang Duvng Vift Anh
Truang Dgi hgc Kinh te Dd Ndng, Dgi hgc Dd Nang Email: [email protected]
L§ Thi Phirong Uyen Trudng Dgi hgc Kinh te. Dgi hgc Da Ndng
Le Thuy Dung Tru&ng Dgi hgc Kinh te Nghe An
Ngay nhan: 24 9^016 Ngay nhan ban sua: 25/10/2016 Ngay dujet dang: 25/12/2016
Torn tdt:
Su dung mdt mdu cdc thuang vu sdp nhdp vd mua lgi (M&As) trong ngdnh ngdn hdng Viet Nam giai dogn 2000-2013. kit qud nghien ciru cho thdy vao thai diem mua lgi, ngdn hdng mi^c tiiu cd tinh hinh tdi chinh lot bdt ki hinh thuc mua lgi ndo. Kit qud nghien ciru cUng dgt ra nghi vdn phdi chdng cdc chuang g-inh ddi tdc chiin luge giita cdc ngdn hdng ngi dia Viet Nam vd nude ngodi dang that sir di dung huang khi cdc thuang vg xuyin qudc gia khdng thuc su tgo ra gid gi cdng hudng nhu ky vgng. Cudi cung, nghiin cuu nhgn thdy vai trd cua yeu td qudn tri cdng ty, ddc biii Id chdt luang hgi ddng qudn tri g-ong quyet dinh lira chgn htnh thuc mua lgi cua cdng n- than tdm.
Tir khda: Ngdn hdng muc tieu; Cdng ty than tdm; Sap nhdp va mua lai; DID; Qudn tri cong ty The choice between domestic and cross-border acquisitions in Vietnam's banldng M&A market
Abstract:
Using a sample of Vietnamese banking-related takeovers in the period of 2000-2013. the empirical results of the study find that taiget banks have good-operating performance at the time of takeovers no matter what types of acquisitions. The paper also questions whether the strategic parniership programs between Vietnamese domestic banks and foreign partners ai-e being run in the right wo}- as cross-border deals have not created takeover syneigies as expected. The study further confirms the importance of corporate governance, especially the board of directors in shaping the bidders ' location decisions.
Key'^vords: Taigel bank: bidding firm; \{&.As: DID; coiporate governance.
1. Gidi thieu ngdn hang Viet Nam di kem he tbdng kilm soat va Vao cudi nam 1996 va ddu nam 1997, be thdng danh gid nii ro ylu kem trong qua khir, cdng vdi ngdn bang \ let Nam bgc Id nhieu dau hieu bdt dn. nhimg rac rdi tai cbinh d cac nude lang giing nhu Su tang mrdng manh cua boat ddns tm dung tai cac Thai Lan hay Philippines ma nguyen nhdn chinh la
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cudc khung hoang tai cWnh Ddng A 1997-1998, da dira toan bg h? thdng ngan hdng ddi mat vdi rui ro.
Day la ly^ do de nhiing ngdn hang Viet Nam tham gia vao thi tnrdng sdp nhap va mua lai (M&As).
Trong giai doan ddu (1997-2005), Ngdn hang Nha nude ^ e t N a m da thdng qua nhilu Quyet dinh nhdm td chuc lai cac td cbirc tin dung va khuyen khich cac ngan hang thuong mai ylu sap nhdp hoac dugc mua Iai bdi td chiic tin dyng khdc. Trong giai doan thu hai (2005-2011), cac boat dgng M&As nganh ngan hang Viet Nam tap trung vdo viec phdt hanh cd phieu cho ddi tac cbien luge bao gdm cac ngdn hdng nude ngodi hodc td chiic tin dung trong nude ciing nbu cac cong ty phi tai chinh de thu hiit cdc ngudn luc tai chinh. Dang chu y, trong giai doan nay, Ian sdng than tdm cua cac nha ddu tu nude ngodi ddi vdi cdc ngdn hdng thuang mai cd phan Viet Nam dien ra kha sdi ndi.
Mdt sd nghien ciiu lien quan den cac thuong vy mua ban qudc tl da dugc tiln banh. Phung & Troge (2014) ddnh gid tdc dgng ciia chuang trinh ddi tdc cbien luge nude ngoai ddi vdi lgi nhudn cua cac ngdn bang Viet Nam va tim thdy mdi tuang quan Cling chieu ciia nhijng chuang trinh nay vdi lgi nhudn ngdn hang. Yamaguchi (2011) cung thuc bien nghien ciiu Hen quan den boat ddng M&As trong ITnh vyc ngdn hang Vi?t Nam ma ngi dung xoay quanh viec tim hieu dgng ca de cdc ngdn hdng nude ngoai dd tien vao cac ngan hang tai Viet Nam. Ket qua cbi ra rang cac doi tac nude ngoai cd xu budng dau tu vao cac ngdn hang cd mang ludi rdng Idn, the hien mot chiln luge ddu tu ddi han nhdm md rdng thi phdn.
Trong giai doan thir ba 2011-2015, de dn tdi cdu tnic giai doan 2011-20I5 da dugc tbdng qua nham tim kiem su on dinh va lanh manh hda nganh ngan hang Viet Nam Trong giai doan nay, cac nghien ciiu dugc tap trung chu yeu vao de an tdi co cau nganh ngdn hang Viet Nam.
Trong bai bao nay, nhdm tac gia tap trung nghien cim hai hinb thiic ciia M&As, mua lai ngi dja va mua Iai xuyen bien gidi, vdn chua dugc ngbien cuu trong thi trudng M&As Viet Nam. Thong qua viec khao sat mdt loat cac chi tieu tai chinh, muc tieu cbinb ciia bai viet la ngbien ciiri sy anh hudng ciia hai binb thiic tbdu tdm den hieu qua boat dgng cua cac ngan bang muc lieu, tii' do pbat bien cac dac diem va ddng CO tbiic day ciia mdi loai binb ddu tu cbien luge nay.
Cuoi ciing. bdi \iet cd gdng neu bat bang chung ve
anh hudng cua quan hi cdng ty din su iua chgn hinh thuc mua lai cua cac cdng ty thau tdm hen thi tntdng M&As ngdnh ngdn hang Vi^t Nam. Cu tbi, nghien cuu nay tra Idi ba cdu hdi chinh:
(1) Dgng CO cua cac thuang vu thdu tdm ndi dia hoac xuy8n qudc gia?
(2) Cdc thuang vy thau tdm cd cai thien kit qua kinh doanh cua cdc ngan hang hay khdng?
(3) Cd mdi quan he nao giua boat ddng quan trj ciia ngan bdng vdi quyet dinh lya chgn hinh thiic mua Iai ciia cdng ty thdu tdm?
2. Cff m If thuyit v^ gia thuyit nghien cvni 2.1. Ddng cff Iff a chgn hinh thii'C mua Igi Trong CO sd hgc thudt hien tai, nhieu nghien cdu tap trung tim hieu dgng co cua viec lya chgn hinh thiic mua l^i (mua Iai ngi dia va mua lai xuyen bien gidi). Ket qua chi ra rang cdc cdng ty muc tieu cd tinh hinh tai cbinh kem thudng de bi mua lai ndi dia'. Focarelli & cgng sy (2002), Bertrand
& Zitouna (2008), Hannan & Pillofr(2009), Starks
& Wei (2013) cbo rdng cac cdng ty thau tdm ndi dia ve CO bdn cd lgi the tbdng tin, Igi the mang ludi va tbi trudng ban cac cdng ty thau tdm nude ngoai, do dd viec mua lai cac ddi tac ndi dia cd tinh hinb tai chinh khdng tdt se kha tbi ban so vdi cdc ddi tac nude ngodi. Trong khi dd, cdc cdng ty thdu tdm nude ngodi thdng qua mua Iai xuyen bien gidi- de tim kiem cac cdng ty muc tieu cd ket qud tai chinh tdt kbi tham nhdp vao mdt tbi trudng mdi. Lanine &
Vennet (2007), Hernando & cong sy (2009), Leuz
& cgng sy (2009), Zhu & cdng sy (2011) giai thich rang vdi mang ludi pban phdi Idn, danh tieng tdt, ngudn nban lyc chat lugng cao vd cdc dieu kien tai chinh manh se giup bd trg cac cdng ty thdu tdm thich nghi tdt hon trong radi trudng mdi. Ye (2014) cdn nhan manh rdng, do bdi sy bat ddi xiing tbdng tin (ve tieu chudn ke toan, van hda, sy khac biet phap Iy), cdc cdng ty thau tdm nude ngodi thudng tim kiem cac cdng ty muc tieu boat ddng tdt de dl dang djnh gia, tinh toan gia tri cdng hudng va de xuat miic gia mua !ai hgp Iy
Trong Iinb virc ngdn bang, cac ngdn bdng boat dgng yeu kem cd thi la ddi Urgng hap dan cua cac thuang vu thau tdm nhd vao tilra ndng Idn hon ti-ong viec gia tang kit qud qua kinb doanh va hieu ling cdng sinh. That vdy, nghien ciiu ciia Amel &
Rhoades (1989), Hannan & Pilloff (2007), cho rdng ngdn hang cd thu nhap thdp, cd cac khoan vay vdi nil ro cao, de bi thdu tdra ban vi nd cho phep cdng
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ty thau tdm tdi da hda hieu iing cdng sinh chi vdi miic chi phi bd ra thdp. Ngoai ra, Lanine & Vennet (2007) cung tun didy mdi quan he nghjch chilu gifia ty le vdn tren tdng tai san ciia ngdn hang va kba ndng trd tiianh myc ti6u mua l?i. Tuy nhien, cac nghien cuu da cd vdn chua cung cdp bdng chiing rd rang ve dgng CO ctia cac thuang vu than tdm ngi dia hodc xuyen qudc gia. Dya tren tdng quan ly thuyet hien cd, nhdm nghien curu dl xudt gia thuyit nghien ctiu sau:
Gia thuyit H I : Vdo thdi diem mua lai, ngan hang muc tieu cd tinh hinb tdi chinh kem thudng dugc mua lai ndi dia, trong khi cac ngdn hdng cd ket qud kinh doanh tdt dugc mua bdi cac cdng ty thau tdm nude ngoai.
2.2. Gid tri cpng hir&ng tgo ra du&i mdi hinh thuc mua lgi
Hernando & cdng sy (2009) nhdn thdy, ngugc vdi mua Iai ndi dia vdn lam tang bieu qud boat ddng ciia cdng ty myc tieu so vdi giai doan trudc kbi bi mua lai, ket qud tai cbinh cua cdng ty muc tieu dudi binh tbiic mua Iai xuyen qudc gia la khdog thay ddi hoac thay ddi thdp ban mua Iai ndi dia. Dieu ndy Id do cac ddi tdc nude ngoai da lya chon cac cdng ty myc tieu cd ket qua kinh doanb khd quan tai thdi diem tbdng bdo thuong vu mua lai nen gia tri cdng hudng dugc tao ra d hinh thirc mua Iai xuyen qudc gia se kbdng bdng so vdi hinb thuc mua Iai ndi dia.
Nghien cim cua Starks & Wei (2013) iing hd quan diem ndy va gidi thich rang nguyen nban bdt ngudn tir su chenh lech trong miic do pbat tnen tai cbinh vd CO cbi quan tri cdng ty giiia hai qudc gia anb hudng tieu cyc den gia tii cdng hudng sau mua Iai.
Trong ITnh vuc ngdn hang, Rhoades (1998), Focarelli & cdng su (2002) nhdn thdy, sau khi duac mua lai, Igi nhudn cua cac ngdn bang dugc nang len nhd vdo \ lec cdi thien chinb sach cho vay hi tai co cau danh muc cho vay ciia ngdn hang muc tieu, ddn den mirc lai Idn hon. Akhigbe & cdng su (2004), Hannan & PiUoff (2007), giai thich rdng thdng qua
\ lec chuyin giao quyln dilu hanh hoac sy hien dien ciia cd ddng chiln luge, viec mua lai mot phdn \ on cho phep ngan hang muc tieu thay thi doi ngii quan Iy yeu kem bang mdt hoi ddng quan tri, ban dilu hanh tot ban, nhd dd tang hieu qua qudn Iy, gidm dang ke chi phi boat ddng, khiln cac ngan hang muc tieu cd the hoat dpng hieu qua hon sau khi dugc thau tdm. Tuy nhien. cac nghien ciiu da co vdn chua tra
!di cau bdi lieu cac thuang vu than torn dudi cac
hinh thiic khac nhau cd cai thien ket qua kinh doanh cua cdc ngdn hang hay khdng? Dua tren tdng quan thirc nghigm Men cd, nhdm nghien cuu ddt ra gia thuyit rdng:
Gia thuyit H2: Ngdn hdng muc tieu cai thifn dang ke ket qua tai chinh dudi thuang vu mua Iai ndi dia, trong khi hinh thuc mua Iai xuyen qudc gia khd cd kha nang tao ra gia tri cdng hudng.
2.3. Cau true quan tri cong ty vd quyet ^nh l^
chgn hinh thirc mua lgi
Leuz & cdng su (2009), Kim & cdng sy (2011), nban thdy cdng ty tbdu tdm nude ngoai thudng tim kiem cdc cdng ty cd chdt lugng quan tri tdt, giiip hg de dang chuyen giao co che quan tri tdi uu ban, tii dd du bdo dugc gia tri cdng budng chinh xac.
Tuy vdy, trong ITnh vyc ngan hdng, thyc tl cd kha it nghien cuu tim hieu ve mdi quan he gi&a edu tnic qudn tri ngdn hang va quyet dinh lira chgn hinh thiic mua Iai. Theo Cotter & cgng sy (1997), Bange &
Mazzeo (2004), mdt khi ca chi kilm soat ndi b6 ciia mdt cdng ty bi pha vd do sy boat ddng yen kem cua hdi ddng quan tri, cdng ty rdt de trd thanh muc tieu Ciia thuang vu thau tdm. Ket hgp vdi nhiing luan cii trong phdn 2.1, nghien cuu gia dinh rdng:
Gia thuyet H3: Ngdn hang muc tieu trong thucmg vu ngi dia cd cdu tnic quan tri kem hon ngan hang muc tieu trong thuang vu xuyen qudc gia.
3. Dfr lifu va phuomg phap nghien cihi 3.1. Dir lieu
Du lieu trong bai nghien cuu nay dugc thu thap Xir cdc CO sd dii heu cd uy tin cao, cu tbi: (1) Thfing tin ve ngay thdng bao thuang vu vd cac ddc diem ciia thuong vu dugc tbu thap tii Thomson Reuters SDC Platinum; (2) DCr lieu kit qud tai chinh va gia cd pbieu thu thdp tir cdc co sd diJ lieu Bankscope va cophieu68.cam; va (3) Ddc dilm qudn tri ciia ngdn hdng muc tieu dugc Idy tir bao cdo thudng nien ciia nam tai chinb ket tbiic trudc ngay cdng bd thuong vu va dugc thu thdp tir co sd dii lieu Thomson One Investment Banker. Sau khi loai bd cac thuong vu ma ngdn hang muc tieu khdng cd dir lieu trong cac ca sd du lieu da dl cap, bai vilt da ngbien cuu 45 thuang vu mua Iai ngan bang muc tieu hong giai doan 2000-2013, gdm ca mua lai ndi dia va xii\en bien gidi.
3.2. Phirang phdp nghien cuu
3.2.1. Phirang phdp Difference-in-Differences (DID)
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Dya tren nghien cdu ciia Bertrand & Zitouna (2008), Zhu & cdng sy (2011), nhdm tac gia su dung phuang phap DID de nghien cum sy tac dgng ciia sy kien M&As d6n bo^t ddng cua ngdn hang muc tidu sau khi hi thdu tdm. Theo dd, tdc dgng ciia thuang vu dugc tinh theo cdng thuc nhu sau:
^^^.=(y'ls-^, -AT-J - (y',.r-o-A.T^j (1)
Trong dd, y'^^^ va y",^^^ Idn lugt Id cdc dac tmh tdi chinh ciia ngan hang muc tieu sau va trudc nam cd thuang vu. y ' , j.^„ vay^. ^^^ ldn lugt la cdc ddc tmh tai chinh cua ngdn hang Idem soat (ngdn hdng khdng cd thuang vy) sau vd hTidc ndm cd tiiuong vu.
Nhu v^iy, gid hi DID dugc tinh toan bdng each (1) trudc bet, tinh gid tri chenh lech trong dac tinh tai chinh eua Idn lugt nhdm ngdn hang muc tieu vd nhdm ngan hdng kiem soat sau va trudc nam cd thuong vu; (2) tinh gia tri chenh lech giira hai nhdm ngdn hang.
3.2.2. Phuangphap Matching
Theo Debejia & Wahba (2002), phuong phap DID cd the cung cap gia tri udc lugng thien lech nlu nhdm kiem soat (trong bdi bao ndy la cac ngdn hdng kiem soat) khdng thuc sy cd cimg quy md va cac dac tinh gidng nhdm cdc ngan bang muc tieu. De xir Iy van de ndy, nhdm nghien cuu su dung phuang phdp Matching (ghep ddi) dl ghep mdt ngan hang muc tieu vdi mdt ngan bang kiem soat (trong nhdm mdu cac ngan bang khdng cd thuang vu) cd ciing quy md tai san tucmg ung vdi nam cd thuang vu (One-to- One Matching).
3.3.3 Md hinh hdi quy Logistic
Trong ngbien cuu nay, nhdm ngbien ciiu sii dung md hinh hdi quy Logistic de kiem tra mdi tuong quan giiia cdu tnic quan tri cua ngan hang muc tieu vd quyet dinh lya chgn hinh thiic mua Iai cua cdng ty thau tdm. Phuang trinh cd dang nhu sau:
Prob(CROSSBORDER =1) = p„+ p, STRONGBOARD + p, CEOPOWER + p, BLOCK+ p^ CONTROLS + e (2) Trong dd, biln phu thupc CROSSBORDER la bien nhi phan, nhan gia tri bang 1 neu mpt thuong vii xuyen bien gidi dugc mua Iai, va bang 0 neu thuang vu ndi dia dugc mua lai Cac bien ddc lap cua md binh gdm cd:^
STRONGBOARD: Biln nay dugc sir dung dl phan dnh chat lugng hdi ddng quan tri ciia ngan hang muc tieu. Dya tren Bange va Mazzeo (2004).
nbdiii ngbien ciiu xay dyng mgt chi sd hpi ddng
quan tri manh dugc tinh bang tdng ba hitn nhi phan:
DBSIZE, DINDIR va DFEDIR. Gia tii tdi da cho chi sd hgi ddng quan tri manh la 3, va chi s6 cang cao dai dien cho hgi ddng quan tri cang manh.
CEOPOWER: Biln nay dugc su dung dl phan anh siic manh ciia CEO cua ngdn hang muc tieu.
Dya ti-8n Pathan (2009), nhdm nghien curu xdy dung mgt chi sd quyen lyc CEO dugc tfnh bdng tdng ba biln nhi phdn: CEOTENURE, CEOINTER, va CEOOWN. Gia tii tdi da cho chi sd quyln lyc CEO la 3, va chi sd cang cao dai di?n cho quyen lyc CEO cang manh.
BLOCK: Bien ndy dugc sii dyng de do ludng miic do ndm gi& vdn cua cd ddng ldn trong ngdn hang myc tieu. Dya tren Cronqvist & Fablenbracb (2009), nhdm nghien cdu sir dung bien lien tuc phan tram cd pbieu ndm giii bdi nhung cd ddng chinh (bang hoac ldn hon 5% tdng sd cd phdn cua ngdn hdng muc tieu) trudc cac thuang vu mua Iai.
CONTROLS: Nhdm cac bien kiem soat, gdm cd (1) Cac biln ddc diem ciia thuong vu, nhu RELATED. TOEHOLD. CASH, vd FRIENDLY (Faccio & Masulis, 2005); (2) Cdc bien ngi tai ciia ngan bang muc tieu (dugc bao cao vao nam tai chinh gdn nhdt ket tbiic trudc thdi diem xdy ra thuang vy), nhu: Tdng tdi sdn (SIZE), ty suat lgi nhudn tren tdng tdi san trung binh (ROAA), rui ro tin dung (LLR), nii ro thanh khoan {CTA) (Pathan, 2009).
4. Ket qua vd thao ludn 4.1. Md td mdu nghien cuu
Bang I md ta cac thdng sd tbdng ke cua cdc thuang vu trong ngdnh ngan hang, trong dd gid tri trung binh ciia cac thuong vu Id 148.8 tiieu USD, mua lai trung binb khoang 37% vdn ciia cac ngdn hang muc tieu Viet Nam Ngoai ra, khdng cd su chenh lech qua Idn ve sd lugng cac cdng ty thau tdm qudc te va ngi dia, vdi ban mdl nua la mua Iai trong ciing nganh vd dudi 5% Id cac thuong vu thau tdm mang tinh thii dich. Trong Bang 2, kit qua cho thay gia tri ciia cac thuang vu xuyen qudc gia cao ban ban thuong vu ngi dia (193 34 trieu USD so vdi 98.69 hieu USD), mdc dii ty le sd hiru vdn thdp ban nhieu (12.88% so vdi 65.57%). Cac cdng ty thdu tdm nude ngoai cung thudng lya chgn cac ddi tac cimg ngdnh ngan bang va thanh todn bdng tiln mat han cac cdng ty thdu tdm ngi dia.
4.2. Giai dogn tru&c khi bi mua lgi Bang 3 md ta tinh hinh tai chinb cua cdc ngdn So 235 thdng 01/2017
Bang 1. Sdc diem caa cfic thuOTig .^nmnafaingan hiing or Viet Nam giai doan 2000-2013 Sd
lugng thuong
Gid tri thuang vu (TriSudd)
Mua ciing
(%)
Mua tii ddi tac nude ngoai
(%)
tiennrat
(%)
% s d hiiu tai
tiidi diem mua Iai
(%)"
Mua"
Iai thii dich
(%)
04.11 Ngudn: SDC Platinum
Loai
Ngi dia Xuyen
qudc gia
Sd luong thuang vu 23 22
Bang 2. Dac diem ciia Gia tri thuong vu
(Trieu dd) Mean
98.69 193.34
Min
6.41 15.71
Max
248 742.34
cac thucmg vv theo hinh thuc
% sd biiu vdn Mean
65.57 12.88
Min
9.61 8.50
Max
100 20
Mua cung nganh
(%)
36 64
mua iai Mua bdng tien mdt
(%)
37.50 62.50
huu tai dim diem mua Iai
(%)
25 75
thil dich
(%)
02.14 01.25 Ngudn: SDC Pladnum bang muc tieu trong nhdm mua Iai xuyen qudc gia tdng tai sdn (CTA), cao ban so vdi nhdm ngan hang giai doan trudc thuong vu. Sir dung cdc kiem dinh
t-test va z-test, kit qua d Bdng 3 eho thay ddi vdi cdc thuong vu mua Iai xuyen qudc gia, ngan hang bi thdu tdm thudng ed ty suat Igi nhudn (ROAA), ty Ie Iai can bien (NIM) vd ty Ie vdn cbii sd hiiu ti^n tdng tai sdn (ETA), cao ban so vdi nhdm ngdn hang kilm soat trong giai doan trudc thuong vu. Kit qua nay ung bd gid thuyet HI rdng ngan hdng muc tieu dudi hinh thiic mua Iai xuyen bien gidi cd ket qua tai cbinb tdt hon so vdi ngdn hdng kiem soat. Tuong ty, kit qua d Bang 4 cho thdy ngan hang bi thdu tdm ngi dia CO ty le lai can bien (NIM) va ty Ie tien mat tren
kilm sodt. Dilu nay khdng bin vorag vdi gia thuyet rdng ngan bdng mue tieu dudi hinh tiiuc mua lai noi dia cd kit qua tai chinh xdu ban so vdi ngdn hang kilm sodt. Nhu \ ay. kit qua phdn tich giai doan tien mua Iai cho thdy cac ngdn hang muc tieu d \^et Nam cd tmh hinb tdi chinh tdt tai thdi diem M&As. Dilu nay cd kha nang rdng nhung ngan hang boat dgng tot Id nhimg ngdn hang tien phong trong ^ iec rim kiem cdc ddi tac mua lai.
4.3. Giai dogn sau khi bi mua lgi
Phdn nay tim hieu ve nbiing thay ddi ti-ong tinh Bang 3. Dac diem tdi chinh ciia nhom thuong vu mua Iai \u> en quoc gia
giai doan truffe khi hi mua lai Bien
ET.\
CTI RO.\A
M \ l LLR C T \ C4R LTD
Nhom ngan N 22 22
T )
22
^1
20 17 22
Mean 0.141 0.337 0.012 0.031 0.016 0.131 0.167 0.711
hang muc tieu Med 0.134 0.410 0.007 0.028 0.009 0.095 0.153 0.695
SD 0.024 0.090 0.004 0.008 0.007 0.081 0.090 0.104
Nhom ngan N
""^
22 22 22 22 22 22
^^
Mean 0.129 0.314 0.006 0.024 0,015 0.131 0.158 0 652
hang kiem soat Med 0.117 0.409 0.005 0.023 0.009 0.092 0.150 0 621
SD 0.015 0.140 0.002 0.008 0.006 0.079 0.109 0-080
Ki^ra dinh chenh lech f-lest
1.824*
0.156 2 1 4 1 "
1.922*
0.564 0.311 0.094 1 214
z-lest 0.855 0.071 1.103 1.661*
0.241 0 562 0.442 0.863 Ghi chii: Ki hieu *. ** de chi mirc y nghia lan luot tai 10" u.
.\gudn Tinh todn ciia nhdm tdc gia
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Bang 4. B^c dilm tai chinh cua nhom thinmg vu mua l^i noi dja giai doan trudc khi bi mua 1^
Biln Nhdm ngan hdng muc ti€u Nhom ngSn hang kiim soat Kilm dinh chenh If ch N Mean Med SD N Mean Med SD t-test z-test ETA
CTI ROAA
NIM LLR CTA CAR LTD
23 23 23 23 23 23 19 23
0.137 0.318 0.011 0.027 0.018 0.128 0.158 0.704
0.132 0.415 0.008 0.025 0.011 0.112 0.152 0.685
0.017 0.090 0.005 0.005 0.009 0.091 0.110 0.102
23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
0.134 0.342 0.012 0.019 0.018 0.117 0.155 0.695
0.127 0.494 0.006 0.018 0.009 0.096 0.150 0.643
0.014 0.112 0.002 0.005 0.004 0.080 0.009 0.121
1.247 -0.377 -0.634 1.883*
0.075 2.041**
0.633 1.527
0.695 -1.524 1.009 1.674*
0.215 1.224 0.825 0.993 Ghi chu: Ki hieu *, ** de chi mure y nghTa ldn lugt tai 10%, 5%
Nguon: Tinh todn cda nhdm tdc gid
Bang 5. Gia tn DID cac thdng sd tai chinh ciia cac ngan hang muc tieu sau khi dugc mua lai Bien
DID-ETA DlD-CTI DID-ROAA DID-NIM DID-LLR DID-CTA DID-CAR DID-LTD
N 27 27 27 27 26 24 10 27
Mean 0.019 0.039 -0.003 0.000 -0.002 -0.034 0.020 -0 052
Med 0.017 0.060 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 -0.037 0.031 0.003
SD 0.065 0.239 0.021 0.015 0.012 0.125 0.099 0.342
t-test 1.479 0.849 -0.868 0.132 -0.864 -1.332 0.635 -0.783
z-test 1.441 1.538 -2.162**
-0.120 -0.089 -1.200 0.561 0.000 Ghi chu: Ki hieu ** cbi miic y nghia 5%
Ngudn- Tinh todn ciia nhdm tdc gid hinh tai cbinb ciia ngan bang muc tieu mdt nam sau kbi bi mua Iai. Chiing tdi tinh todn gia tri DID cbo nhieu cbi tieu tai chinh khac nhau, gdm cd cac cbi tieu pban anh miic Igi nhudn (ROAA vd NIM), hieu qud chi pbi (CTI), quy md vdn chu sd hiiu (ETA va CAR), chat lugng tai san (LLR), vd kba nang thanh khodn (CTA and LTD). Cd the nhdn thay sd lugng quan sat cac bien giam vdi nguyen nban chinh la do
mdt sd ngdn hdng bi thdu tdm 100% vdn cd phdn nen kbdng cd bao cao tai cbinb sau sap nhdp.
Trudc het. Bang 5 md ta ket qua kiem dinh gia tri DID cbo todn bd mdu cdc ngdn hang muc tieu. Kit qua cbo thay trong kbi ngan hang muc tieu cbiing kien sy suy gidm nhe trong ket qua kinh doanh khi gia tri trung vi cua ROAA giam khoang 0.3% trong ndm ddu tien sau thuang vu, kbdng cd nhieu thay Bang 6. Gia trj DID cac thong so tai chinh ciia cae ngdn hang muc titu
sau khi dugc mua lai xuyen qudc gia Bleu
DID-ETA DID-CTI DID-ROAA DID-NIM DID-LLR DID-CTA DID-CAR DID-LTD
N 15 15 15 15 14 15 6 15
Mean 0.014 0.065 -0.005 -0.002 -0 002 -0 042 0.063 -0 072
Median -0.001 0.049 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 -0.024 0.049 0.003
SD 0.046 0 171 0,008 0,008 0,011 0,151 0.094 0.402
t-test 1.172 1.473 -2,178**
-1,085 -0 646 -1,081 1.624 -0 692
z-test 0 795 1,477 -1.761*
-0.683 -0.094 -0.909 1,363 0,341 Ght chit. Ki hieu ** va * Idn lugt chi niiic y nghia 5% va 10%
Ngudn: Tinh todn cita nhdm tdc gid
So 235 thdng 01/2017
kinlili'JIiallrJt'i
Bang 7. Gia tri DID cac thong so tii chinh cua cac ngan hing muc ti6u sau khi dnyc mua lai n^i dja Bien N Mean Median SD l-test z-test Dm-ETA
DID-CTI DID-ROAA DID-NIM DID-LLR DID-CTA DID-CAR DID-LTD
12 12 12 12 12 9 4 12
0.011 0.034 -0.003 0.002 -0.004 -0.022 -0.044 -0.047
0.024 0.095 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 -0.050 -0.035 -0.012
0.075 0.309 0.032 0.020 0.013 0.075 0.073 0.266
0.474 0.362 -0.269 0.334 -1.022 -0.828 -1.221 -0.588
0.711 1.156 -1.600 -0.089 -0.533 -1.120 -1.095 -0.622
ddi trong cdc cbi sd tdi cbinb khdc giai doan hdu tbdu tdm.
Trong Bdng 6 va Bang 7, nhdm nghien cuu kiem dinh gid tri DID cua cac ngdn hdng muc tieu phdn theo binh tbiic mua Iai. Kit qua d Bang 6 cbo thay miic Igi nhudn ciia cac ngan bang muc tieu gidm dang ke vdi ty le ROAA giam khodng 0.5% mgt nam sau khi bi mua Iai xuyen qudc gia. Trong khi dd, ket qud d Bang 7 kbdng chi ra sy thay doi dang kl gid tri DID ciia cdc chi tieu tai chinb trong cdc ngdn hang muc tieu dugc mua lai ndi dia. Nhihig kit qua ndy ung hd mdt phan gid thuyet H2 rdng binh tbiic mua Iai xuyen qudc gia khd cd kha nang tao ra gia tn cdng budng.
Trong Bang 8, nhdm ngbien ciiru kiem dinh chenh lech giiia cac thong sd md td cho cac dac tinh quan tti tiong cdc ngdn hang muc tieu pban theo hinb tbiic mua Iai. Bang 8 cho thdy chat lugng hdi ddng quan hi (thi bien qua chi so STRONGBOARD) cua cdc ngan hang mue tieu noi dia la manh hon cac ngdn hang dugc mua lai dudi hinh tbiic xuyen qudc gia.
Ket qua nay ve co ban khdng ung hd gia thuyit H2
\a do dd, dl ngbi rdng cac cdng t> thau tdm nude ngodi khi vdo tbi tiircmg M&.\s nganh ngan hang Viei Nam cd xu hudng tim kilm cdc ngdn hang muc tieu cd tinh hinh tai chinh kha quan nhirng vdn dara bao chat lugng quan tri cdng ty kbdng manh, de hp
Ngudn: Tinh todn cua nhom tdc gid
cd the chuyen giao co che quan tn tdi uu ban img dung vdo cdc ddi tdc muc tieu. Trong khi do, cac cdng ty thau tdm ndi dia vdi Igi the ve mat thdng tin, van hda va thj trudng, cd xu hudng lya chgn cac ngdn bdng vdi tinh hinh tai chinb Idnh manh va co che qudn tri tdt.
Bdng 9 bao cao ket qua thyc nghiem vl tac ddng cua cau tnic quan trj ngdn hang muc tieu den quyit dinh lya chgn binb thuc mua lai ciia cdng ty thau torn.
Kit qua cbo thdy he sd ciia biln STRONGBOARD trong md hinh ket hgp Id duong va cd y ngbia thdng ke. Tuong ty, vdi ket qua trong Bang 8, nghien ciiu nhdn thay trong cac thuong vy M&As ngdnh ngan hang Viet Nam, cdng ty than tdm nude ngodi co xu hudng mua Iai nhihig ngan hang cd cdu tnic qudn tti kem, h-ong kbi cac cdng ty thau tdm ndi dia thudng lya chgn cac ngdn hang muc tieu cd cdu tnic qudn tn tdt.
5. Ket luan va ggi y chinh sach
CJ Viet Nam, hoat dgng sap nhap va mua lai khdi ddng tii nam 2000 va gia tdng nhanh chdng vl sl lugng vd gia tri cac thucmg vu. Tbdng ke tir SDC Platinum cho thdy cac giao dich M&A nam sau da gap 5-6 Idn nam trudc vl tdng gia tt-i va gdp 2-3 Idn vl so lugng. Trong bdi cdnb Viet Nam da la thanh vien cua tdt ca cac td chiic quoc tl Idn nbu T6 chirc Thuang mai Till gidi WTO, cdng dong kinh tl
Bicn
STROSGBO.ARD CEOPOIVER BLOCK
Ml N 22
So 235 thdng 01/201'
ua lai xuyijn bien gitri Mean Med SD 0-1567 1 0.736 1.354 1 1,141 0 884 1 0 908
N 23 23 23
28 Mua la:
Mean 1 230 1-153 0.727
i noi dja Med SD 1 1 1
0,815 1.007 0,882 Ngudn
Chenli lech l-lesl z.nwl 2,782*"
-0.698 -0,605 Tinh loan
2,608*"
-0.650 -0,610 ciia nhom lac gia
kinlild'yirin
Bang 9. M^i quan h& giira c4u true quan tr| ngan h^ng v^ hinh thuc mua l^i ffiin i 2 3 4 STRONGBOARD
CEOPOWER BLOCK TOEHOLD FRIENDLY CASH RELATED SIZE ROAA LLR CTA N Pseudo R' Wald;f2
-0.776 (0.49)
21.214**
(8.83) 1.904**
(0.79) 0.790 (0.86) 1.268*
(0.71) -0.300 (0.45) 79.884 (66.72) -13.822 (54.13) -6.523 (8.56) 45 0.388 39.07***
-0.041 (0.30)
21.521**
(11.46) 2.069**
(0.81) 0.223 (0.78) 1.362*
(0.71) -0.753 (0.47) 97.985 (69.72) 52.722 (51.53) -8.129 (9.03) 45 0.359 24.19***
-0.070 (0.57) 19.528 (12.88) 1.797**
(0.78) 0.881 (0.86) 1.112 (0.88) -0.773 (0.55) 113.122 (101.34) 41.261 (62.91) -9.335 (13.77) 45 0.358 20.37***
-1.284**
(0.65) -0.496 (0.46) -0.636 (0.67) 24.740**
(11.96) 1.709 (1.06) -1.156 (1.06) 0.879 (1.01) -0.374 (0.66) 156.920 (98.93) 11.599 (71.65) -3.828 (12.84) 45 0.415 31.81***
Ghi chit: Thdng ke z dugc tinh tbdng qua viec su dung sai sd chuan heteroscedasticity consistent standard errors, trong dd sai sd chuan dugc the bien trong dau ngoac don. Ki hi
** vd * ldn lugt cbi muc y nghTa 5% vd 10%.
Ngudn: Tinh loan cua nhdm tdc gid ASEAN,... vd da tham gia, ky ket, dam pban tdng cdng 15 biep djnh thuong mai tu do (FTA) trong do cd cac FTA quan trgng nhu Hiep dinli ddi tac xuyen Thai Binh Duong (TPP), Hiep dinh ddi tdc toan dien khu vuc (RCEP)... Viec tham gia, thyc thi cdc hiep dinh thuang mai tu do tao ra nbii"ng co bgi va thach thirc mdi cho cdng ddng doanh nghiep Viet Nam va hiia hen mot sy bung nd cdc thuang vu M&A trong thdi gian den.
Mpt trong nhung van de man chdt can nam viing khi nghien cuu ve M&A la tim hieu nguyen nhan lua chgn cdc hinb tbiic M&A (M&A ndi dia vd M&A xuyen qudc gia) cd y nghia Idn ddi vdi Viet Nam.
Ndi each kbac, trong nbirng nam qua, ben canh cac ddi tdc cbien luge nude ngoai, cdc cdng ty Viet Nam, trong dd cd cdc cdng ty thudc khdi tu nhdn, chil dgng ddng vai trd la cong ty di thau tdm. Viec tim hieu ddng ca cua xu the nay mang tinh cap thiet cao Nam virng dugc ddng co nay se giup cdc doanh nghiep Viet Nam lya chgn dugc cac ddi tdc than
thien, tranh dugc cac thuong vu tbii dich. Dieu nay cang trd nen quan trgng xet trong mdi quan he vdi boat ddng quan tri cdng ty, giiip cai thien boat dgng doanh nghiep, tang cudng kba nang chdng dd vdi nil ro, tdng gid tri ben vUng cbo doanh nghiep, dac biet khi Viet Nam ngay cang hdi nhap sdu rdng vao n6n kinb te toan can.
Nghien ciiu cua nhdm tac gia tap tmng vao nganh ngdn bdng d Viet Nam va trudc bet chj ra rang cac ngan bang rauc tieu d Viet Nam CO tinh hinh tdi cbinb tdt tai thdi diem thong bdo thuang vu M&As. Dilu nay cho thdy cdc ngan hang boat ddng tdt thudng di tien phong trong viec tiin kiem cac ddi tdc raua Iai, nham muc tieu giQ' via'ng va tiep tijc md rgng thi phdn, nang cao chat luang quan tn. Mac dii vdy, nhdm tdc gia cung nhdn thdy cac thuong vu mua lai khdng that sy tao ra gia tri tang them cho ngan hang muc tieu, thdm chi cdn pban tac dung dudi hinh thuc mua Iai xuyen qudc gia. Dilu nay dat ra vdn dh phai chang cac chircmg trinli ddi tdc chiln luge giCra cac
So 235 thdng 01/2017
hinlili'iliiil
ngan hang ndi dia Viet Nam va nude ngoai dang that su di dung hudng.
Cudi ciing, nghien ciiu nhdn thdy vai tid cua yeu td qudn tri cdng ty, dac biet Id chit lugng hdi ddng quan tii tiong quyit dinh lua chgn hinh thiic mua Iai cua cdng ty thdu tdm ndi rieng va su phat trien cua ngdnh ngan bang ndi chimg. Trong bdi canh hdi nhap sdu rdng nhu hien nay, mdi ngdn hang cdn chu
ddng nang cao co che quan tri cong ty de tao ra mpt he thong cac thilt chi, chinh sach, luat le nham dinh hudng, van hanh va kiem sodt ngdn hang; giai quyet tdt cac mdi quan hd gifta nhilu ben, khdng chi hong ndi bg ngan hang ma cdn nhihig ben cd lgi ich lien quan ben ngoai; tii dd tao ra mgt co che phdng ve trudc cdc doi tac than tdm khdng mong mudn.
Phu lyc Mo ta bien vd nguon so ligu CROSSBORDER
BSIZE DBSIZE
INDIR DINDIR FEDIR DFEDIR STRONGBOARD
CEOTENURE DCEOTENURE CEOINTER CEOOWN CEOPOWER
LSHARE BLOCK CAR CTA CTI ETA LLR LTD NIM ROAA SIZE RELATED CASH
TOEHOLD FRIENDLY
Bien nhi phan, nhan gia tri bang 1 neu mpt thuong vi^ xuyen bien gidi dugc mua lai, va bang 0 nlu thucmg vu noi dja dirge mua lai (Nguin: SDC Platinum)
s l lugng thanh vien trong Hgi ding quan tri (Nguin: Bao cao thuang nien)
Biln nhi phan, nhan gia trj I nlu s6 lugng thanh vien trong Hgi dong quan tri nho hon gia trj tnmg vj s l lugng thanh vien trong hgi dong quan tri cua man va nhan gia tri 0 cho truong hop ngugc lai ^ , Sfl thanh vien giii vi tri giam doc doc lap trong Hoi dflng quan trj (Nguon: Bao cao thuong nien) Biln nhj phan, nhan gia u i I nlu s l thanh vien giii vj tri giam doc dgc l^p trong Hgi dong quan tri Ion hon gia tri trang vi cua mau va nhan gia trj 0 cho tnrdng hgp ngugc lai
So lugng thanh vien nQ trong Hgi ding quan trj (Nguon: Bao cao thuang nien)
Biln nhj phan, nhan gia tri 1 ngu sfl lugng thanh vien nfl trong Hoi dong quan tn ldn han gia tri trung vj cua mlu va nh^n gia tri 0 cho trudng hgp ngugc lai
Biln nay the hifn chi so Hoi dflng quan tq manh, va dugc tinh bang tong ba bien nhi phan:
DBSIZE, DINDIR va DFEDIR. Gia tri t l i da cho chi sfl hgi ding quan tri manh la 3, va chi so cang cao dai dien cho Hgi dong quan trj cang manh
Then gian gifl vi tri giam doc dieu hanh (nam) ciia CEO (Ngufln: Bao cao thirong nien) Bien nhi phan, nhan gia trj I neu thdi gian gifl \ i tri giam doc dieu hanh cua CEO Ion hem gia tri tmng Vl ciia mau va nhan gia tri 0 cho truong hgp ngirgc lai
Bien nhi phan, nhan gia tri I neu CEO ciing nam trong Hgi dong quan tri va nhan gia tri 0 cho tnicmg hgp ngugc iai (Nguon; Bao cao thirdng nien)
Bien nhi phan. nhan gia tri 1 neu ti le so hiju co phan ciia CEO Idn hon hoac b3ng 1%, va nhan gia tri 0 cho trudng hgp ngugc lai (Nguon: Bao cao thudng nien)
Bien nay the hien chi sfl quyen luc ciia CEO va dugc tinh bing tflng ba bien nhi phan:
CEOTENURE, CEOINTER. va CEOOWN. Gia tri toi da cho chi so quyen lu"c CEO la 3, va chi so cang cao dai di?n cho quyen lire CEO cang manh.
So lugng CO dong lan ciia ngan hang muc tieu (nam gifl tii 5% von co phan trd len) ("Nguon: Bao cao thudng nien)
% cfl phan ciia ngan hang muc tieu duac nam giu bdi cac co dong ldn (Nguon: Bao cao thirong nien)
He so an toan von toi thieu (Von tu co/ Tong tai san co nii ro) (Ngufln Bankscope) Ty le Tien mat \ a cac khoan tucmg ducmg tiln mat/ Tflng tai san (Nguin: Bankscope) Ty le CJii phi hoat dong/ Doanh thu hoat dong (Ngufln Bankscope)
Ty le Tflng von chu so huu/ Tflng tai san (\gu6n: Bankscope) Ty le Du phong nii ro tin dung/ Tong du ng (Nguon Bankscope) T\ le Du ng tin dung/Tiln gui (Nguin: Bankscope)
Ty le Lai can bien (Ty le Thu nhap tit lai/ Tflng lai san sinh ldi) (Ngufln Bankscope) Ty le Lai nhuan rong truoc thue/ Tong tai san trung binh (Nguon: Bankscope) Logam lu nhien ciia long tai san (Ngufln Bankscope)
Bien nhi phan, nhan gia tn 1 neu ngan hang muc tieu va cflng ty thau torn boat dgng trong ciing mot linh \vc, \a nhan gia trj 0 cho tnrdng hop ngugc lai (Ngu^n: SDC Plalinum)
Bien nhi phan. nhan gia tn I neu thuang \ u dugc thanh loan bang tien mat. va nhan gia tri 0 cho tniimg hap nguac lai (Ngudn- SDC Platinum), va nhan gia t^ 0 cho tnrdna hgp nguoc lai (Ngufln- SDC Platinum)
% vfln CO phan lai ngan hang muc lieu ma cong ty thau tom da ndm giu tai thdi diem thuane vu (Ngufln: SDC Platinum)
Bien nhi phan. nhan gia tri 1 nlu thuong \ u mana tinh than ihien. \ a nhan sia m 0 cho tnrong hop nguoc lai (N.guon: SDC Platinum) " ' "
So 235 thdng 01/2017
kiiilileiliallrieD
G h i chii: ^ 1. Mua Iai noi dia: la hhih thiic ma cdng ty thau torn vd cong ty muc tieu d i u c6 ciing mgt quoc tjch.
2. Mua l^i xuyen biSn gidi: la hinh tb6c ma cflng ty thau t6m d i n tu mdt qudc gia khac qudc tich vdi cdng ty muc tieu.
3. Xem dinh ngbiava each tinh toan eae biln trong phdn Phu lue.
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